Is McCain Mounting a Comeback?

[Brainster]

It sure seems like he's getting some positive press for a change:

Endorsed by the Des Moines Register (http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071215/NEWS/71215016) (in Iowa, where he doesn't have a prayer due to his scorn for ethanol subsidies.

“McCain would enter the White House with deep knowledge of national-security and foreign-policy issues. He knows war, something we believe would make him reluctant to start one. He’s also a fierce defender of civil liberties. As a survivor of torture, he has stood resolutely against it. He pledges to start rebuilding America’s image abroad. …

“The force of John McCain’s moral authority could go a long way toward restoring Americans’ trust in government and inspiring new generations to believe in the goodness and greatness of America.”

He also picks up the Boston Globe's endorsement (http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/15/globe_endorses_mccain_obama/), although this might be one he could do without:

McCain was praised as a straight talker whose honesty at political cost might help a polarized nation. The board called him an antidote to the "toxic political approach'' of the last two presidential elections.

''McCain’s views differ from those of this editorial page in a variety of ways. Yet McCain’s honesty has served him well,'' the board wrote. "As a lawmaker and as a candidate, he has done more than his share to transcend partisanship and promote an honest discussion of the problems facing the United States. He deserves the opportunity to represent his party in November’s election.''

Fred Barnes notes that McCain still has a chance (http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/014/487ewzpc.asp):

It's all part of the McCain package that's far more conservative than not and often unpredictable. In Inman, a man gave McCain a pack of Marlboro cigarettes, saying he'd done the same on an aircraft carrier off Vietnam decades ago.

There was no reason for McCain to comment on this, yet he did. He held up the pack and said there was good news and bad news. "I've not had a cigarette in 28 years," he said. "That's the good news. The bad news is I still want a cigarette." The best news for McCain, though, is that he once again has a shot at the Republican nomination.

I've commented elsewhere that the Huckabee phenomenon probably benefits McCain more than anybody else, especially if the Huckster can deal a mortal blow to Romney's hopes in Iowa.

Don't get me wrong, I think McCain's still got a tough row, but he's getting some breaks at the right time.

[corplinx]

Oh no, but he once said it was safe to walk in Baghdad. He's obviously disqualified from ever being president because he goofed up that statement. And he answered a birth control question awkwardly. Pardon me while I go through my list of reasons McCain sucks since the democrats have Obama running this year.

[Brainster]

Joe Lieberman to endorse McCain (http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/CampaignStandard/2007/12/breaking_kristol_lieberman_to.asp).

THE WEEKLY STANDARD has learned that Sen. Joe Lieberman, the 2000 Democratic vice-presidential nominee, will endorse Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for president tomorrow. The two will appear together at a press conference Monday morning in New Hampshire, weather permitting.

It's debatable how much this helps McCain, but it certainly adds to his aura of electability.

[Puppycow]

I think McCain still has a chance. His main problems are his age and his pro-war stance, but I like how he doesn’t pander too much. The ethanol thing is a good test of character, because the temptation there would be to pander. I think McCain would be the best general election candidate for the Republicans, so if they don’t nominate him, it’s their loss.

BTW, I would NEVER vote for Romney after his “at least I’m not an atheist speech” (not that I would have, but this makes it extra official).

[corplinx]

BTW, I would NEVER vote for Romney after his “at least I’m not an atheist speech” (not that I would have, but this makes it extra official).

I would never vote for Hillary after her "take things away from you" statement.
I would never vote for Hunter after talking about gitmo detainees eating rice pilaf.
I would never blahblahblahblah.

Sorry puppy, I like your posts usually. However, the "this guy said this thing and it blanketly disqualifies him" statements are kinda pedestrian.

[Puppycow]

Sorry puppy, I like your posts usually. However, the "this guy said this thing and it blanketly disqualifies him" statements are kinda pedestrian.

Come on dude, can't you see I'm in high dudgeon and you're not validating my feelings? :dqueen

But seriously, this was a planned speech, not an off-the-cuff remark. Although I should never say never, the speech did lose him many points in my personal estimation.

[Brainster]

Okay, this could be the usual "sine wave" of political reporting, but here's a very heartening article for McCainiacs (http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071217/pl_afp/usvote2008_071217214740):

The Des Moines Register, the only state-wide paper in Iowa picked him as its top Republican candidate, despite the fact he trails badly in polls before the Iowa caucuses, the first 2008 nominating clash, on January 3.

McCain also won the backing of the Boston Globe, which has a wide circulation in New Hampshire, and Monday added the endorsement of Al Gore's 2000 Democratic running-mate Joseph Lieberman.

"If this were an ordinary time and an ordinary election, I probably would not be here today," Lieberman said.

"But this is no ordinary time -- and this is no ordinary election -- and John McCain is no ordinary candidate."

The endorsements sent a jolt of enthusiasm through the McCain camp.

"Good things happen to the best presidential candidate, and that's exactly what's happening to John McCain," said campaign manager Rick Davis in a fundraising email.

I've said several times this year, McCain is the "eat your peas" candidate for the Republicans, who traditionally have been the "eat your peas" party. And I'll admit that he seems to be benefiting mightily from the inability of any of the other Republican candidates to catch on.

[Brainster]

The Wall Street Journal covers McCain (http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110011007) today.

More than economics, Mr. McCain has two main strengths in this GOP race: His record on national security, and the belief that he can reach enough non-Republicans to assemble a viable center-right coalition and defeat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama in what could be a difficult GOP year. Mr. Lieberman's endorsement is notable because it reinforces both of those claims. Mr. Lieberman had to win GOP and independent voters to keep his Connecticut Senate seat after he lost the Democratic primary, and Mr. McCain won in New Hampshire in 2000 with the help of independents who could vote in the GOP primary. He'll need their support again this year.

[Brainster]

Rasmussen Polling now shows McCain (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_hampshire/election_2008_new_hampshire_republican_primary) within striking distance of Romney in Massachusetts:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state shows Romney with 31% support, McCain at 27% and no one else close. Rudy Giuliani attracts 13% and Huckabee barely reaches double digits at 11%. This is the first time any candidate has been within single digits of Romney in several months. It remains to be seen whether this is a temporary bounce or a lasting change.

Before the latest endorsements, it was Romney 33% and McCain 18%. In late-November, Romney led by nineteen points. Earlier in November he was up by fifteen.

The report does contain some bad news for McCain. Huckamania appears to be dissipating in Iowa:

McCain also gained ground in Iowa over the past week. However, starting from a much lower base, he remains a distant third. Rasmussen Reports polling data released today shows that Huckabee’s support has receded a bit in Iowa so that Romney is once again tied for the lead. Huckabee and Romney are also tied in South Carolina. Huckabee still leads nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCain is definitely hoping that Huckabee can beat Romney in Iowa.

[corplinx]

A McCain comeback makes a good news story. The old heavyweight gets his second wind. Expect more stories on the topic despite the light weight of the evidence.

[Darth Rotor]

A McCain comeback makes a good news story. The old heavyweight gets his second wind. Expect more stories on the topic despite the light weight of the evidence.
When things get down to nut cutting, I think Rudy and Mitt will give him some rough treatment.

DR

[Brainster]

A McCain comeback makes a good news story. The old heavyweight gets his second wind. Expect more stories on the topic despite the light weight of the evidence.

There is a sine wave of political coverage that news media embrace because it gives them a storyline. But polling that shows McCain four points down in New Hampshire when the last poll showed him trailing by 15? That's evidence.

Huckabee and Thompson are unserious candidates and their brief surges represent the effort by the Republican base to avoid accepting McCain. But they also, more important, represent the effort by the Republican base to avoid accepting Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney. Contra Darth Rotor, those voters turned off on the latter two will decide to support McCain in the long run. But the problem is, there's no long run.

McCain's not the favorite, that's obvious. But does anybody feel any of the other candidates have momentum? Huckabee has peaked in the places they're paying attention, his apparent national momentum is a day or two behind the times.

[corplinx]

There is a sine wave of political coverage that news media embrace because it gives them a storyline. But polling that shows McCain four points down in New Hampshire when the last poll showed him trailing by 15? That's evidence.


And Howard Dean was going to sweep Iowa. Im not sure we can call primary polls hard evidence.

[Brainster]

And Howard Dean was going to sweep Iowa. Im not sure we can call primary polls hard evidence.

Iowa's difficult to poll because it's all the local caucuses that matter. Plus those goofy Dean kids in the orange hats apparently ticked off everybody.

[Brainster]

American Research Group poll shows McCain and Romney dead even (http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/nhrep8-713.html) at 26% in New Hampshire.

[Darth Rotor]

The thread title inspired the following thought:

Is McCain becoming a mountebank?

Beware of Senators selling pills. What's his position on health care, and the pills program?

DR

[New Ager]

Let me help out all of you that have candy canes and President McCain dancing in your heads. It's not happening.

McCain lost any chance he had at the nomination when he fought Bush on many things and agreed with the Dems. Way too moderate to get the Republican nomination.

And one little poll up North early on means zip. When McCain comes South, watch him fall like a rock.

This is just the end of a nice political career. A last hurrah of sorts.

And by the way, I love it when liberals tell us the candidate we should pick is the one that agrees with them very often. We don't want anyone who agrees with liberals on anything as our candidate.

And being pro-war is not a negative. Quit listening to the media and listen to the people.

[Kerberos]

And being pro-war is not a negative. Quit listening to the media and listen to the people.
I'll do that (http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm).

[New Ager]

I'll do that (http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm).

Sorry, but people are not happy that it's went on so long, but not unhappy with the war which was a noble endeavor.

If it means so much, then the Republicans should have no chance. Want to bet that isn't true.

Plus, the media has just bashed it for so long and never reports the good news, it's any wonder any one supports it.

By the way, I've noticed less reporting from Iraq now that we are starting to see marked improvement. Is it possible the liberal media doesn't want to report good news?

By the time the election rolls around, I predict Iraq will have little bearing on the outcome.

[Kerberos]

Sorry, but people are not happy that it's went on so long, but not unhappy with the war which was a noble endeavor.

From the link above:

"Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out?"


Right Thing Stayed Out Unsure
% % %
41 54 5

ETA: Seems the format gets screwed up.
If it means so much, then the Republicans should have no chance. Want to bet that isn't true.
You argued that it wasn't a negative. It is, whether it absolutly dooms them is beside the point.

Plus, the media has just bashed it for so long and never reports the good news, it's any wonder any one supports it.
Where are you going with those goal posts?

By the way, I've noticed less reporting from Iraq now that we are starting to see marked improvement. Is it possible the liberal media doesn't want to report good news?
That is possible, but for the less conspiratorially minded it's more likely that we're simply witnessing the well known jounalistic fact that "bad news are news, good news aren't".

By the time the election rolls around, I predict Iraq will have little bearing on the outcome.
That's possible, if the violence keeps decreasing. If not..

[New Ager]

(Kerberos)

You argued that it wasn't a negative. It is, whether it absolutly dooms them is beside the point.

(New Ager)

Will people base their votes on Iraq? I doubt few will.

Not a negative.

(Kerberos)

That is possible, but for the less conspiratorially minded it's more likely that we're simply witnessing the well known jounalistic fact that "bad news are news, good news aren't".

(New Ager)

So, now it's a conspiracy to point out the liberal news media.

Liberals just keep up the masquerade.

Why?

(Kerberos)

That's possible, if the violence keeps decreasing. If not..

(New Ager)

Let me guess which one you are rooting for.

[Kerberos]

Let me guess which one you are rooting for.

You don't need my permission to make an ass out of yourself.

[Iamme]

I think McCain still has a chance.

Not with that left cheek of his.

[Iamme]

And being pro-war is not a negative. Quit listening to the media and listen to the people.

Is there a fact in there somewhere, validated by respected surveys? And are we talking Amercian citizens living in America? American soldiers in Iraq and their families. Or Muslims from over there?

[Brainster]

From the link above:

"Looking back, do you think the United States did the right thing in taking military action against Iraq, or should the U.S. have stayed out?"


Right Thing Stayed Out Unsure
% % %
41 54 5

ETA: Seems the format gets screwed up.

You argued that it wasn't a negative. It is, whether it absolutly dooms them is beside the point.

The point I think New Ager is making is that supporting the war doesn't hurt McCain with the Republicans, who are the people he is asking to nominate him as their standard-bearer. Given that there is only one Republican candidate against the war (Paul) and that he's polling at best about 8%, it seems pretty clear that McCain's support for the war has not hurt him within the party. It may when the general election comes if things do not continue to improve in Iraq.

[New Ager]

You don't need my permission to make an ass out of yourself.

And he doesn't even deny it.

As usual, liberals rooting for liberalism over their country. Sad.

(Iamme)

Is there a fact in there somewhere, validated by respected surveys? And are we talking Amercian citizens living in America? American soldiers in Iraq and their families. Or Muslims from over there?

(New Ager)

Liberals, who are mostly against the war,(not for any noble reason, but just to oppose Bush) put their own feelings on others.

Conservatives support the war, and if the liberal media hadn't repeatedly bashed the war effort and reported some good news once in a while, we wouldn't have these polls that have been cited.

But, still, the good news gets out that we have a made a difference and it was a noble cause to get rid of an evil dictator and give a country a chance at freedom. Plus, the surge is working and Iraq is moving towards better times. You know how you know? The liberal media is reporting less and less about it. Don't want to give President Bush any credit at all.

When it comes down to one on one in the election, supporting the war will not be a negative, in fact, it might be a positive.

[Kerberos]

And he doesn't even deny it.

I note that you don't deny being an ass.

[Brainster]

Ramesh Ponnuru reports (http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZDlhMGFjMDgzM2VkNjMyMjNlMDMyMjFiZTNmYTlmZDI=) that "Mac is back":

His events are packed: The fire marshal had to turn people away, both New Hampshire voters and visiting journalists, from his Peterborough town hall meeting. Reporters who have gone to Romney events tell me that his crowds are merely respectable. "The Mac is back!" his supporters have been chanting. So it would seem.

At InTrade (http://www.intrade.com/), McCain's shares for the nomination are currently at 34.4 bid, putting him slightly ahead of Giuliani at 32.0. Huckabee's at 13.5, while Romney is at 11.6, Paul at 4.0 and Thompson at 2.6. McCain's desire to get this down to a two-man race between him and Rudy Giuliani could be achieved by Tuesday evening.

[Puppycow]

The National Review endorsed Romney, but Ramesh has favored McCain (not to suggest that his analysis is wrong. Intrade has McCain at 85% to win in NH. The question then becomes, will he get an additional bounce from a victory in New Hampshire or not? South Carolina would seem to favor Huckabee. RCP currently has new polls only for NH, not any of the subsequent states or national yet. The most recent national poll is Pew, which gives a slight edge to McCain, but with only 22%.

Eventually it will come down to a two-man race (presumably: who knows what might happen if 4 or 5 different candidates have each won some primaries) but I tend to see Huckabee vs. somebody, either McCain, Giuliani or Romney. Since the latter three are more acceptable (or less unacceptable) to the republican establishment, whoever becomes the alternative to Huckabee will win.

[Brainster]

The National Review endorsed Romney, but Ramesh has favored McCain (not to suggest that his analysis is wrong. Intrade has McCain at 85% to win in NH. The question then becomes, will he get an additional bounce from a victory in New Hampshire or not? South Carolina would seem to favor Huckabee. RCP currently has new polls only for NH, not any of the subsequent states or national yet. The most recent national poll is Pew, which gives a slight edge to McCain, but with only 22%.

Eventually it will come down to a two-man race (presumably: who knows what might happen if 4 or 5 different candidates have each won some primaries) but I tend to see Huckabee vs. somebody, either McCain, Giuliani or Romney. Since the latter three are more acceptable (or less unacceptable) to the republican establishment, whoever becomes the alternative to Huckabee will win.

Reasonable point about Ponnuru; I've definitely noticed other conservative resources and their favoritism: Drudge is clearly in Romney's camp.

I don't see Huckabee being a factor for long. He still doesn't have the dough to compete.

[Kopji]

The fact that McCain is around at all is something of a comeback. His campaign staff pretty much imploded a couple months back. His recovery is evidence that the ones that needed to leave, left. He has some skill in keeping things on track.

My personal opinion from Arizona politics is that McCain is way too clever for his own good. I'm not sure he has really caught on to the changes in our ability to parse information quickly. It is not as easy to say different things to different groups as it once was, I'll be surprised if he does not trip up before November.

[Hutch]

McCain's hope is that with Big Julie and Mitt the Flopper now savaging Huckleberry, he will look like the most palatable option to Republicans and the only one with a chance to beat either Hill-Bill or Obama-Oprah.

I think all four of the main Republicans (along with Paul, as he apparently has the money to campaign) stay in it until the Feb 5 primaries (about 20 on that date, IIRC) when we'll really see who has the interest of the nation.

McCain-Obama or McCain-Clinton would be interesting, the first contest between sitting Senators in quite some time (if ever, I need to do some checking, lots of former Senators vs. sitting Senators, but two in office at the time?)

[MaGZ]

I have to put Rudy and McCain in the same camp as mad bombers. They would drop the big one without a second thought. I don’t think Romney would do that.

[leftysergeant]

By the way, I've noticed less reporting from Iraq now that we are starting to see marked improvement. Is it possible the liberal media doesn't want to report good news?

There's been good news since the fall of Baghdad? How did I miss that?

And how did I miss there being any major "liberal media" left outside the internet?

(Just a hint, dude. Rush is not a particularly good source of cultural and political information.)

[New Ager]

There's been good news since the fall of Baghdad? How did I miss that?

And how did I miss there being any major "liberal media" left outside the internet?



CNN, NBC, CBS, and ABC. As usual, liberals can't admit they are liberal.



(Just a hint, dude. Rush is not a particularly good source of cultural and political information.)

[/quote]

Rush is a good source of almost everything, especially exposing liberals. That's why they can't stand him.

And by the way, it's the most listened to talkshow in American history.

How are you liberals doing with your talkshows? :)

[Brainster]

CNN Notes the Rocket Man (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/11/2008.poll/):

The senator from Arizona is the front-runner in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the first national poll taken after the New Hampshire primary.

McCain has the support of 34 percent of registered Republicans in a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Friday. That's a 21-point jump from the last CNN/Opinion Research poll, taken in December, well before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary earlier this month.

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa Republican caucuses, is in second place in the new survey, with 21 percent of those registered Republicans polled supporting him for the GOP nomination. Check out the poll »

Rudy Giuliani follows with 18 percent, a drop of six points from the December poll, when the former New York City mayor was the front-runner.

"Only McCain gained support among Republicans nationally. McCain's now the clear Republican front-runner," said Bill Schneider, CNN senior political analyst.

In perhaps-related news, Giuliani staff in Florida (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/12/us/politics/12giuliani.html?_r=1&oref=slogin) have been asked to forego pay in January:

Rudolph W. Giuliani’s senior campaign aides have given up their paychecks for the month to help save dwindling campaign funds as Mr. Giuliani heads into the crucial primary races where he has staked his candidacy.

Was an obscure political blogger (http://brainster.blogspot.com/2007_11_04_archive.html#7820457055008043234) the first to notice the uptrend for McCain, both here and on his blog a month earlier?

I know I'm virtually alone in feeling this way, but I have an inkling that events are working out well for John McCain. Fred Thompson seems to be struggling; the other day he had to beg for applause for one of his speeches. If the race boils down to Giuliani and McCain, I like John's chances.

[Thorn]

CNN, NBC, CBS, and ABC. As usual, liberals can't admit they are liberal.





Rush is a good source of almost everything, especially exposing liberals. That's why they can't stand him.

And by the way, it's the most listened to talkshow in American history.

How are you liberals doing with your talkshows? :)
According to conservatives, the national news is the liberals talk base, so I imagine it's pretty good. Hell, we "liberals" have nearly full control over YOUR elections.

Or are you one of those misty eye conservatives who undermine media influence on politics?

[steverino]

(Just a hint, dude. Rush is not a particularly good source of...political information.)


He is one good source of many. :rolleyes:

[corplinx]

And how did I miss there being any major "liberal media" left outside the internet?


He means the east coast tea cozy liberal crowd, not the internet leftist crowd.

[New Ager]

According to conservatives, the national news is the liberals talk base.



I was speaking of the radio where liberals have floundered trying to counter Rush.



..so I imagine it's pretty good. Hell, we "liberals" have nearly full control over YOUR elections.



Nope, but they try. Heck, if there was a fair news media in America, liberals would never win anything.

[SezMe]

McCain's hope is that with Big Julie and Mitt the Flopper now savaging Huckleberry, he will look like the most palatable option to Republicans and the only one with a chance to beat either Hill-Bill or Obama-Oprah.
I think Hutch's analysis is spot on. The theocons will sit it out if Julie gets the nod (which will be especially painful on the down-ballot races). Mittens is so clearly vulnerable on the flip-flop thing. The Huckster can woo them in the south but the big money conservatives will donate to Clinton or Obama before they'll support him.

So the Elephants will hold their collective noses, try to forget the sins of the past and give McCain the nod.

[Thorn]

I was speaking of the radio where liberals have floundered trying to counter Rush.



Nope, but they try. Heck, if there was a fair news media in America, liberals would never win anything.

Why desire radio when they have the TV. We all know which one has a bigger audience, not to mention TV proves to have a stronger influence.

I don't know how you can keep a straight face in believing media sources haven't affected this election.

[steverino]

Mittens is so clearly vulnerable on the flip-flop thing.

What a wonderful sentence! I love it.:D

[Brainster]

Kick for gloating purposes. I called it!:D

[Undesired Walrus]

I am now prepared to believe McCain just might be having a comeback.

[Kerberos]

I am now prepared to believe McCain just might be having a comeback.

Let's not jump to conclusions - I still think the RP Juggernaut will triumph.

[portlandatheist]

:) McCain is now the front runner :)

[Donal]

As a wise man once said

Don't call it a comeback
I been here for years
Rockin my peers and puttin suckas in fear

[Dr Adequate]

Buddha, the Diamond Sutra, am I close?

[Donal]

No, he is one of the great poets and philosophers of our time. Happily, he is still among us to spread his wisdom.

[marksman]

Famous Last Words
A McCain comeback makes a good news story. The old heavyweight gets his second wind. Expect more stories on the topic despite the light weight of the evidence.

McCain lost any chance he had at the nomination when he fought Bush on many things and agreed with the Dems. Way too moderate to get the Republican nomination.

And one little poll up North early on means zip. When McCain comes South, watch him fall like a rock.

This is just the end of a nice political career. A last hurrah of sorts.

[corplinx]

I made those words before NH, SC, Florida and took them back afterwards. At the time I made them there wasn't a lot of evidence that McCain was making a comeback.

[Brainster]

I made those words before NH, SC, Florida and took them back afterwards. At the time I made them there wasn't a lot of evidence that McCain was making a comeback.

You mean aside from my calling it of course! :)