Christmas and the economy

[3point14]

Was watching all the shoppers in town before christmas, the number of people desperate to part with their cash or bend their credit cards is truly phenomenal.

It got me to wondering, how would the economy cope without christmas? Would we need another holiday in the year to pick up the slack? Would retailers have a lower turnover? or would the turnover be the same just more evenly spread over the year? What (if any) knockon effects would there be? Does the economy 'need' christmas?

[tsg]

Was watching all the shoppers in town before christmas, the number of people desperate to part with their cash or bend their credit cards is truly phenomenal.

It got me to wondering, how would the economy cope without christmas? Would we need another holiday in the year to pick up the slack? Would retailers have a lower turnover? or would the turnover be the same just more evenly spread over the year? What (if any) knockon effects would there be? Does the economy 'need' christmas?

I can't speak for anyone else, but I know my family tends to avoid buying anything non-essential between November and February. It's a combination of needing money to buy Christmas presents and knowing we're getting some (as well as recovering from the bills). I can't tell you if we'd spend as much on ourselves as we do on others, but I have a feeling it would be close.

[spiteme]

Does the economy 'need' christmas?

Yes, it does. Retailers make most of their money over the holidays, and if they don't they use the After Christmas Sales! to take up the slack, hopefully.

I've often thought if women REALLY wanted themselves heard, they would refuse to shop for the holidays, no gifts, no special food, nada. Because women do most of the buying (not all, but most), we could bring this country to its knees.

[Tokenconservative]

Was watching all the shoppers in town before christmas, the number of people desperate to part with their cash or bend their credit cards is truly phenomenal.

It got me to wondering, how would the economy cope without christmas? Would we need another holiday in the year to pick up the slack? Would retailers have a lower turnover? or would the turnover be the same just more evenly spread over the year? What (if any) knockon effects would there be? Does the economy 'need' christmas?

How would I cope if I did not look so damned much like Brad Pitt?

The world may never know....

I don't mind hypotheticals, but what's the point of this?

Oh, yeah...because this Christmas holiday season was not the utter bust that libs were hoping (you know, since we are all standing on souplines, it made if far more difficult to shop for new 72" flatscreen TVs...), now we need to "fix" that by wondering stuff like this.

What if wishes were fishes, would anyone ever go hungry again?


Tokie

[3point14]

How would I cope if I did not look so damned much like Brad Pitt?

The world may never know....

I don't mind hypotheticals, but what's the point of this?

Oh, yeah...because this Christmas holiday season was not the utter bust that libs were hoping (you know, since we are all standing on souplines, it made if far more difficult to shop for new 72" flatscreen TVs...), now we need to "fix" that by wondering stuff like this.

What if wishes were fishes, would anyone ever go hungry again?


Tokie


Well, what's the point of any of the rhetoric on this board? Does it achieve much? Anything? How often have you seen one person's mind changed by the debate here? It's a thread on a discussion forum posted because I was idly musing about a world without christmas, and work is dead. If it turns out to be a pointless thread, it will sink without trace, if it generates some interesting discussion from people with a better understanding of the realities of the situation, then I have something interesting to read today.

Seems like enough of a point to me.

[Tokenconservative]

Yes, it does. Retailers make most of their money over the holidays, and if they don't they use the After Christmas Sales! to take up the slack, hopefully.

I've often thought if women REALLY wanted themselves heard, they would refuse to shop for the holidays, no gifts, no special food, nada. Because women do most of the buying (not all, but most), we could bring this country to its knees.

If the American economy did not have Christmas, we'd have something else.

Is this a problem?

If so, why?

We like stuff. Is THAT a problem?

Agree: consumerism is a bit rampant, but so what?

If you have money to spend, spend it. If you don't...don't!

Nobody holds a gun to anybody's head and forces them to spend.

Other than the occasional cup of store-bought coffee, the only thing I've bought for myself that is not work-related in maybe a decade, was a new bike (the kind you pedal, not the kind that costs $20k and you heft your sagging belly over, start with an electronic ignition and ride 2 blocks to the bar while pretending you are a Hell's Angel) for $700 about 6 years ago.

I personally don't understand the need to have "things" but that's just me. Others like things and if they are not robbing banks to pay for them....go for it!

Tokie

[3point14]

Oh, yeah...because this Christmas holiday season was not the utter bust that libs were hoping (you know, since we are all standing on souplines, it made if far more difficult to shop for new 72" flatscreen TVs...), now we need to "fix" that by wondering stuff like this.
Tokie


Erm, I could be misinterpreting, but having re-read this section you appear to be accusing me of having an agenda with this question. Am I right?

For the record, no agenda, just curiosity.

[mumchup]

Trolling aside....

We would still buy the things we "need" for ourselves or others; parents would still get their kids toys, electronics and clothing. Grandmothers would still find an excuse to buy scarves & sweaters. My nephews would still have eventually gotten a wii somehow (it was SO FUN!)
I suspect that the useless crap industry (chia pets) would just have to find a way to entice us to buy more of their stuff at other times. And the Christmas decoration industry would have to convince us we all need to buy more Independence day lights. And Arbor Day tree decorations.

[Tokenconservative]

Erm, I could be misinterpreting, but having re-read this section you appear to be accusing me of having an agenda with this question. Am I right?

For the record, no agenda, just curiosity.

If you are a lefty, then you have an agenda, and that is to claim that the economy is collapsing.

If you are not a lefty, then okay.

Tokie

[3point14]

If you are a lefty, then you have an agenda, and that is to claim that the economy is collapsing.

If you are not a lefty, then okay.

Tokie


Crikey, are you sure that brush is big enough?

[Tokenconservative]

Crikey, are you sure that brush is big enough?

Hmmm....

So are you saying there is a lefty or three someplace, currently (this will end on 01/22/09, should Hitlery be elected) who does not say the US economy is collapsing?

Can you identify this lefty?

It will be very important. We'll need to put a bust of them in museums.

Tokie

[mumchup]

Let it be known that this thread has been officially killed due to Hitler invocation.
Oh well. It was in pain anyway...

[Tokenconservative]

Let it be known that this thread has been officially killed due to Hitler invocation.
Oh well. It was in pain anyway...

"Hitlery" is not, in strictest terms an example of The Law.

It is a term of endearment.

So with that in mind, I officially re-open this thread!

Tokie

[Ladyhawk]

Good question, 3.14. I, personally, would absolutely LOVE it if Christmas went away....very, very far away. Sure, people wouldn't spend as much....around Dec 25th, anyway. But, that's not a bad thing. Perhaps some of those folks would save and invest more as opposed to shopping sales. (Btw, a "sale" is only more of what you don't need for less). And, if there were no Christmas, we might actually work during that "holiday week", making us more productive. I know, I might sound kinda "scroogy" here, but I'm just saying what I think could be some benefits of a no Christmas zone.

Besides, even if there were an adverse impact, I'm sure we would all just rally stronger behind Thanksgiving or Halloween or some other holiday.

My husband and I do not buy each other anything for Christmas. We tend to go out, after the holidays are over, take advantage of the year end sales and buy something that we both want or need. I know of many other folks who do the same thing.

[Tokenconservative]

Good question, 3.14. I, personally, would absolutely LOVE it if Christmas went away....very, very far away. Sure, people wouldn't spend as much....around Dec 25th, anyway. But, that's not a bad thing. Perhaps some of those folks would save and invest more as opposed to shopping sales. (Btw, a "sale" is only more of what you don't need for less). And, if there were no Christmas, we might actually work during that "holiday week", making us more productive. I know, I might sound kinda "scroogy" here, but I'm just saying what I think could be some benefits of a no Christmas zone.

Besides, even if there were an adverse impact, I'm sure we would all just rally stronger behind Thanksgiving or Halloween or some other holiday.

My husband and I do not buy each other anything for Christmas. We tend to go out, after the holidays are over, take advantage of the year end sales and buy something that we both want or need. I know of many other folks who do the same thing.

I can agree with the work thing. My industry virtually shuts down this time of year for 2-3 solid weeks depending upon when Christmas and New Year's fall.

Drive me nuts. I get up at 3 a.m. every morning, rarin' to go...and nobody else is working.

Wusses.

Anyway, as to the rest of this: you are a Grinch.

Not the Grinch at the end of the story, but the one at the beginning.

I love Christmas. The decorations, the music (no, I never tire of hearing "Jingle Bell Rock"--you can keep "Grandma Got Run Over by a Reindeer," tho), the food the shopping (I hate shopping any other time of the year, but LOVE going to the mall this time of year), and I really miss, is my kids being small at Christmas, which made it all that much more fun.

As to your economic advice: thanks, Ma...I'll keep that and your admonitions not to swim for an hour after eating and to be careful, I might put an eye out, in mind!

Here is a simple formula that's always worked for me when spending, whether on Black Friday or the 2nd Tuesday of any week: if I can't afford it, I don't buy it!

Now, that's not as folksy as (grumble, piss, moan, gripe) "too many people spend too much money on stuff what they don't have no call for ownin'!" but then, it's says nearly 2008 on my Burma Shave calendar, not 1938.

Tokie

[Just thinking]

With reference to the OP, the Christmas shopping season is often times referred to as the 13th month (by the retail sector, anyway). Yes, it generates as much as 10% (or more) of their annual sales ... all things being equal. The thing I find disturbing, is that the economists are quick to see how well the season did ... long before all the returns are made. I would wait until February 1st as an overall minimum analysis date.

And just for the record, I believe there are some industries that would in fact not survive if there were no Christmas season (or very strong equivalent) --- take toys, for example.

[tsg]

And just for the record, I believe there are some industries that would in fact not survive if there were no Christmas season (or very strong equivalent) --- take toys, for example.

As a parent of two young children, I can tell you that as long as there are grandmothers, toy stores will never go out of business. Christmas or not.

[Just thinking]

As a parent of two young children, I can tell you that as long as there are grandmothers, toy stores will never go out of business. Christmas or not.

Have you ever been in Toys R Us (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/11/01/BU33847.DTL&type=tech_article) in late December --- and then dreamed of it being like it was in the spring? Yes ... grandparents will smother kids in toys, but they can't compare to the wall-to-wall mayhem in these stores just before the holidays.

The good news for EToys is that its biggest rival, Toysrus.com, couldn't make it alone. The bad news is that Toysrus.com teamed up with Amazon.com. Shoppers can reach the co-branded site through www.******.com

[Morrigan]

Oh, yeah...because this Christmas holiday season was not the utter bust that libs were hoping

What in the HELL is wrong with you? Is every damn thing you say about "them damn libs", even when the topic isn't remotely about politics? Get your head out of your ass for a moment. Or better yet, stop trolling.

[tsg]

Have you ever been in Toys R Us (http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2000/11/01/BU33847.DTL&type=tech_article) in late December --- and then dreamed of it being like it was in the spring? Yes ... grandparents will smother kids in toys, but they can't compare to the wall-to-wall mayhem in these stores just before the holidays.

Well, that is in fact what is being argued: whether the Christmas rush is in addition to sales that normally occur all year or just concentrated from the few months surrounding it.

[Tokenconservative]

With reference to the OP, the Christmas shopping season is often times referred to as the 13th month (by the retail sector, anyway). Yes, it generates as much as 10% (or more) of their annual sales ... all things being equal. The thing I find disturbing, is that the economists are quick to see how well the season did ... long before all the returns are made. I would wait until February 1st as an overall minimum analysis date.

And just for the record, I believe there are some industries that would in fact not survive if there were no Christmas season (or very strong equivalent) --- take toys, for example.

I'd like to see the Fairyland News newspaper you read.

I get two (count 'em!) dailies here and both have been screaming that sales are down, down, DOOOOWWWNNNNNNNNN!! [/SIZE[SIZE="1"]](from projections but way up from last year's sales).

The thing you are sitting in front of, reading this? It is a small example of WHY we no longer have to wait until June (traditional, before computers) to learn how well the Christmas shopping season did.

There are also some industries that would not survive if we waved a magic wand and made it illegal to go out to eat. Or to use a computer. Or if we made it illegal to drive. Or smoke.

What's your point?

Tokie

[Tokenconservative]

What in the HELL is wrong with you? Is every damn thing you say about "them damn libs", even when the topic isn't remotely about politics? Get your head out of your ass for a moment. Or better yet, stop trolling.

And Tokie's the one with his head up his ass...okay.....

Do you really believe that if it were, just for argument's sake, the last year of Queen Hillary's last year of an 8 year reign of terror that the media would be quite so eager to (mis)report doom and gloom in the economy, including the retail sector?

This is politics. The left-advocacy media, and yes, that includes "business" reporters (ha!) are desperate to see a Hillary presidency, and so are pulling out all the stops, and that includes telling us the economy is all but collapsing--BECAUSE OF REPUBLICANS, PEOPLE!! IT'S THEM! THEEEEEMMMMMMMM WHAT DONE IT!!!--and you believe it's somehow wrong of me to point this fact up?

Do you keep your head screwed that far up your ass for the warmth, since Global Warming is showing it's ugly face so well this winter across the US, or do you simply like the smell?

Tokie

[Tokenconservative]

As a parent of two young children, I can tell you that as long as there are grandmothers, toy stores will never go out of business. Christmas or not.

Toy stores were popular well before Christmas became such a festival of consumerism, so I tend to agree with this.

Tokie

[Tokenconservative]

Toys R Us[/url] in late December --- and then dreamed of it being like it was in the spring? Yes ... grandparents will smother kids in toys, but they can't compare to the wall-to-wall mayhem in these stores just before the holidays.

I realize I am frequently remiss in not includng links--LIIIINNKKKKSSSSS!!!--but that does not mean it's necessary to include links--LLIIIIINNNKKKSSSSSS!!!!--in EVERY post, whether they are needed or not.

And no, when I had little kids I did not dream of that. I love the hustle and bustle of Christmas at the mall and the toystore and wouldn't have it any other way.

Tokie

[3point14]

Hmmm....

So are you saying there is a lefty or three someplace, currently (this will end on 01/22/09, should Hitlery be elected) who does not say the US economy is collapsing?

Can you identify this lefty?

It will be very important. We'll need to put a bust of them in museums.

Tokie

I really do find labelling myself 'left wing' or 'right wing' very difficult. To take what are a huge number of variables concerning how I think the world is and should be and describe them using into a system that only allows me to move a marker up and down a single line would seem to be a pretty inaccurate way of doing things. Literally one dimensional, in fact.

In some areas I'm tremendously liberal* (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/liberal)in others less so.

But all that's really beside the point, as is my wondering why a person who mused this:


I don't mind hypotheticals, but what's the point of this?


posting so much on the thread they wondered it about.


Originally I was sort of wondering if a lack of christmas would prove of benefit to the economy by allowing retailers and their suppliers to plan more effectively over the year, or if it would help consumers do the same.

Clearly, I should have left the worms in the can.



*See?? 12 different definitions. How can I use that as a word to describe myself with any degree of accuracy without large amounts of clarification?

[Just thinking]

I'd like to see the Fairyland News newspaper you read.

Not following your point/issue with my comment.

I get two (count 'em!) dailies here and both have been screaming that sales are down, down, DOOOOWWWNNNNNNNNN!! [/SIZE[SIZE="1"]](from projections but way up from last year's sales).

The thing you are sitting in front of, reading this? It is a small example of WHY we no longer have to wait until June (traditional, before computers) to learn how well the Christmas shopping season did.

Perhaps when sales are lower it's quite easy to say it's been a slow Christmas season --- but when sales are up, one must still consider that some may return unwanted items. How much? What percentage? (And I didn't specify June ... I said February 1st.) No computer on Earth can predict future human behavior and/or outcome with 100% percent certainty --- that's why we have updates, adjusted figures and corrections. They have even been known to point buying patterns and sales figures in opposite directions. BTW ... which computers were able to safely predict the 2000 presidential election?

There are also some industries that would not survive if we waved a magic wand and made it illegal to go out to eat. Or to use a computer. Or if we made it illegal to drive. Or smoke.

So, then you agree with me.

What's your point?

Tokie

Answering the OP's question to the best of my ability.

[Just thinking]

... And no, when I had little kids I did not dream of that. I love the hustle and bustle of Christmas at the mall and the toystore and wouldn't have it any other way.

I am speaking as a present buying adult (in the year 2007) with not as much free time as a child (from the 1950's or 60's).

[Just thinking]

Toy stores were popular well before Christmas became such a festival of consumerism, so I tend to agree with this.

Of course ... but today they have become overgrown conglomerates that seem to depend too much on the Christmas buying season. To the point where a slow season (or bump in the economy) can be very substantial. Years back there were relatively few toy giants (if any); they were mom and pop stores (remember them) that we no longer find in a walk around town. There were also Hobby Shops .... another dinosaur of the retail industry; do we see them any more? (Yes there are some, but not what it used to be.) And E-business is affecting things in ways many brick and motor stores cannot compete with on a rapid enough basis.

So I guess to a good degree toy stores can become (and have become) a slave to the Christmas buying season --- and may be at a financial point of no return if said season were to disappear.

[Tokenconservative]

Of course ... but today they have become overgrown conglomerates that seem to depend too much on the Christmas buying season. To the point where a slow season (or bump in the economy) can be very substantial. Years back there were relatively few toy giants (if any); they were mom and pop stores (remember them) that we no longer find in a walk around town. There were also Hobby Shops .... another dinosaur of the retail industry; do we see them any more? (Yes there are some, but not what it used to be.) And E-business is affecting things in ways many brick and motor stores cannot compete with on a rapid enough basis.

So I guess to a good degree toy stores can become (and have become) a slave to the Christmas buying season --- and may be at a financial point of no return if said season were to disappear.

Yes...and the wheat industry is a slave to our apetite for bread...if that ever goes away (and it didn't in the Big SoBe Carb Scare a few years ago....) the wheat industry will collapse.

I do miss the hobby shops. Used to collect military miniatures and had a great time every 3-4 months hiking to the one in the next town over to shop there with some like-minded friends.

Good times....gooood times.....

Tokie