The American Economy is Collapsing!

[balrog666]

My home state is colapsing [michigan] because of high oil prices. The us auto industry just does not get that things have changed and they keep trying to push the big muscle car charger,corvet, or esclade on us. mostly because they make money on the big cars.

If you get a chance you need to watch this movie,,,,
http://www.stage6.com/user/WakeUpNowAmerica/video/2230646/THE-END-OF-SUBURBIA

The oil industry is peaking out while demand is rising. Oil is involved in every aspect of your life, from the food you eat, to the clothes you wear.
We are headed for big problems around the world.

We have a government that has no energy polocy, because there are no easy sound bit answers to this big question they just ignore it. The people of the usa just ignore it because they are not into life change, and believe me there will be life change if we want it or not.

It is impossible to grow an economy forever, not possible, we live on a limited recesoruce planet, and we gobble them up as if there is no tomorrow.

Michigan is collapsing further because of the stupidity of unions and the idiocy of management - just as happened 35-40 years ago with the steel industry. Any fools left behind have no one but themselves to blame.

[amb]

Are you a parrot or are you really this ignorant?

TokieA Bush fan. I never realized such creatures still existed.

[a_unique_person]

According to the chatter on the current affairs shows on radio, the US is already in recession.

[Francesca R]

According to the chatter on the current affairs shows on radio, the US is already in recession.Oh well, good job they don't calculate the country's GDP using radio show chatter. There's some old adage that radio pundits have correctly predicted 49 of the last 4 recessions.

[amb]

When you see China cutting back on imports of iron ore, gas, and other commodities. Then you know the whole western world is in recession.

[Tokenconservative]

I'm an investor working for one of the largest pools of capital in the country.

So that means you are privy to information at the very top levels?

So when can we expect the US economy to collapse?

Or has it already?

Tokie

[Chaos]

So that means you are privy to information at the very top levels?

So when can we expect the US economy to collapse?

Or has it already?

Tokie

Speaking of which, Tokenconservative... who or what is the source of your self-proclaimed omniscience on all matters political, social and economic?

[Tokenconservative]

Speaking of which, Tokenconservative... who or what is the source of your self-proclaimed omniscience on all matters political, social and economic?

Like the late Pat Robertson, I talk directly to God.

You would talk to Gaia, but God trumps Gaia.

So I know more than you.

Neener, neener.

Tokie

[Tokenconservative]

When you see China cutting back on imports of iron ore, gas, and other commodities. Then you know the whole western world is in recession.

Wait...what?!

We have been told for the last year or two that Canada, GB, all of Old Europe, Aus/NZ, Mexico, most of Latin and S. America, to say nothing of China, India, Pakistan, Malaysia, etc., are all doing good BECAUSE the US dollar is slipping on the world markets and BECAUSE the US is in a depression that makes the one in the 30s look like a minor market correction.

Which is true?

Tokie

[amb]

To Token. Both. The growth in China and India, and their ravenous need of raw materials are responsible for the mining boom in countries like us, Brazil, Argentina, and the USA. In turn cheap Chinese goods are flooding markets such as America, us, Europe.
At the same time jobs are been exported to China's cheap labor manufacturing which the Western world cannot compete. As more people lose their jobs, their ability to buy these cheap goods diminishes until China has an overcapacity and slows down their need of raw materials. In such a scenario, the world will have to have a ''correction''. All this is not taking into consideration the supply of oil and it's price. If too much capital is required to ensure an adequate supply, where's the money going to come from? Why, the sucker in the street of course.

[Tokenconservative]

To Token. Both. The growth in China and India, and their ravenous need of raw materials are responsible for the mining boom in countries like us, Brazil, Argentina, and the USA. In turn cheap Chinese goods are flooding markets such as America, us, Europe.
At the same time jobs are been exported to China's cheap labor manufacturing which the Western world cannot compete. As more people lose their jobs, their ability to buy these cheap goods diminishes until China has an overcapacity and slows down their need of raw materials. In such a scenario, the world will have to have a ''correction''. All this is not taking into consideration the supply of oil and it's price. If too much capital is required to ensure an adequate supply, where's the money going to come from? Why, the sucker in the street of course.

I don't know what it's like there, but here, we've been assured since the mid-1980s that there are no more manufacturing jobs in America...so I'm not sure what jobs could possibly be going to China and India. Surely, 20 years on, ALL manufacturing has been off shored...

I've asked in another thread for tales of unemployment...not one posting, so far, has been from someone who has or even knows someone who has lost their job.

Tokie

[amb]

Tokenconservative. Have you not seen the huge cutback of jobs from such diverse companies as GMH, Ford, Chrysler, electronic companies, such as for example Hi.Fi speaker manufacture. They may still be designed in America, but are built in China. Have a look behind your TV, I'll bet it's made in China. The computer your on right now was more than likely built in China. Here in Australia, we are producing very little finished products. In fact Mitsubushi has just announced they are to stop manufacturing cars here, in future all their cars will be imported throwing out of work more than 900 workers. If the mining boom finaly ends in this country, which has to one day, we will be up to our necks in pooh. And the worrying thing is the attitude of our present bunch of politicians who are failing future generations. In fact I believe they are acting in a criminal way and should be swept out of their cushy jobs and replaced by forward thinking people

[Flo]

And the worrying thing is the attitude of our present bunch of politicians who are failing future generations. In fact I believe they are acting in a criminal way and should be swept out of their cushy jobs and replaced by forward thinking people



Beware what you're wishing for. Token surely thinks he's one of them ... ;)

[amb]

According to the latest polls in America, it seems as if another Republican will be the next President. The Democrats have as usual shot themselves in the foot by putting up unelectable candidates. This means the cutbacks on science will continue, the disastrous foreign policy of Bush and co. will continue. The health cut-backs will also continue. The very rich will continue to get richer while the poor will suffer with further cut-backs in welfare. The religious right will love it, while atheists will loathe it. Especially the scientific cut-backs. It won't be to long before evolution is barred from the class room altogether, and only creationism is taught. America is at the same stage as the great Roman Empire was just before the fall.

[JoeEllison]

According to the latest polls in America, it seems as if another Republican will be the next President. The Democrats have as usual shot themselves in the foot by putting up unelectable candidates.

On what planet do you live... Planet MainstreamMedia? The Democrats are pulling huge numbers nationwide. Obama crushes McCain in the polls, and I doubt that Dems would avoid voting for Clinton if it meant allowing that idiot McCain a shot at the White House.

[amb]

JoeEllison, unless we are getting the wrong info. in Australia, which reported a poll taken last week in the states showed the Republican candidates been 4% in front of Obama and 6% in front of Clinton. Now you have a spanner thrown in the works as well by the name of Nader who is bound to dilute the Democrat vote. I will bet you a carton of your choice of beer that the Republicans will win the election. Can't anyone shut up that idiot Nader? He has as much chance of winning as I have of winning the local lotto.

[blutoski]

I don't know what it's like there, but here, we've been assured since the mid-1980s that there are no more manufacturing jobs in America...so I'm not sure what jobs could possibly be going to China and India. Surely, 20 years on, ALL manufacturing has been off shored...

I've asked in another thread for tales of unemployment...not one posting, so far, has been from someone who has or even knows someone who has lost their job.

Tokie

I think it's because everybody considers you such a joke that it's hardly worth the effort.

Are you asking specifically about people being laid off due to Chinese competition? Nortel has shed market share to Huawei Technologies for its key telecom switching product line, and laid off about 60,000 over five years in the US and Canada. Nortel has two more US competitors: Cisco and Motorola. Motorola announced last week that they will need to shed 4,500 more manufacturing jobs in 2008 in order to compete effectively with Huawei. Cisco's payroll growth has stagnated.

(part of my portfolio at the telecom company where I work is to monitor the viability of our key suppliers)

I'm more concerned from a strategic point of view than an employment point of view. I predict that in five years, there will be no North American plants capable of producing telecom equipment.

[amb]

Not just telecoms equipment, most electronic goods are no longer made in the Western world. How can you compete with wages as low as $1 per hour. And as long as you buy reputable brands, the quality has not suffered in the least. In fact in some instances it's improved.

[a_unique_person]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23337843-664,00.html



THE Australian market fell sharply yesterday, amid signs the US sub-prime mortgage crisis is worsening and a recession is looming.
US markets slid overnight after economic data showed US home foreclosures had spiralled to record highs.
Figures pointing to a slowdown in consumer spending combined with bad news on the housing front to fan fears that a US recession was imminent, if not already present.
Investor concerns on Wall Street were exacerbated by fears that mortgage lender Thornburg Mortgage was about to go under.
Fears the credit squeeze would get worse before it got better pushed down troubled financial engineering company Allco Finance Group.
CMC Markets senior dealer Dominic Vaughan said losses on the local market were driven by continuing credit woes, with further falls expected.
"We got a double whammy today. We've had soft retail prices overnight and a continuation of the woes within the financial sector," Mr Vaughan said.
"We still have some downside left in the market, which is sad to say, but that's the way it is looking trend-wise. It is still looking heavy."
Allco dropped 16 per cent to 52.5 after major shareholder Allco Principal Partners said it was likely to go into voluntary administration after NAB failed to agree to a deal on margin loans.
The Allco debacle has revived ugly memories for NAB of the forex scandal of 2004 and its disastrous Homeside foray into the US.








More trouble every day. I have moved all my superannuation. (401K?), into cash for now.

[The Atheist]

More trouble every day. I have moved all my superannuation. (401K?), into cash for now.

It's a real shame Tokie got banned - just as this thread is coming into its own.

Dow down to 2006 levels
Unemployment up sharply
Fed tipping another $100+b into the banks to hold liquidity
Fed certain to reduce another .75% next meeting
World sharemarkets well down
Oil >$100/barrel
Food Comms prices down across the board

Cash is good!

[a_unique_person]

Meanwhile, in Australia, how to blow $300million overnight.

http://business.theage.com.au/forced-sales-leave-eddy-groves-with-a-paltry-4683-abc-stake/20080307-1xxn.html



The founder of the embattled child-care group last night revealed he had been forced to sell the bulk of his remaining stake for $26 million, leaving him — after 20 years at the helm of the company — with a holding worth just $4683 at yesterday's closing price.
When asked whether he had been given an opportunity to put up collateral to avoid the margin calls, Mr Groves, whose personal stake was once almost $300 million, last night told BusinessDay: "I have no comment on that."





Margin calls, gotta love em.

[Clairvoyant_Kyle]

I have no clue what is happing to all the American economy, but here is what I do know about mine. I am 28 and live in Muskegon, MI. I have no job, but do have a BBA in marketing and management. I have not had a job in about a year, but have applied for hundreds and hundreds of jobs. I have a friend with a 4 year computer science degree. He is in the same boat as me, but he works 8-16 hours a week for $8 per hour. About 1 out of every 3 people I know, who are around my age or younger, can not find work. The 2 of 3 who do work can hardly keep afloat, and 5-10 years from now their jobs could be gone too. I am watching my home town, surrounding areas, and state drowned in the after effects of NAFTA. Tons of jobs and companies have left or are leaving, and in only some cases replaced with low level, low pay, retail style jobs. I am seeing costs of everything including food, gas, homes, healthcare, insurance and education go up each year. Along with that, I am watching unemployed levels hitting new highs each year. I have watched people give up and rely on only drug dealing to feed thier kids. Every where I go I hear people complain of theses problems, but no one has any answers. All this leaves me with no real sense of life security. I do not have any savings or retirement. I still live with my father. Even with my many accomplishments I lose bits self worth everyday I don’t work. I have no obtainable plan in life anymore. It fells I have no power at all over my situation. This is my America, and this is my economic situation. So is the American economy collapsing? I think it depends on who you ask. I think the millionaires who made a killing on exporting jobs; will have a different answer from the college graduates who can not find one.

[The Gnomon]

Are you really this ignorant?

Michigan is suffering the way it is because of your liberal taxation. You are chasing businesses out of there with a firehose...you, being a lib, of course believe the way to "fix" this problem is to "tax the rich!!!" but of course, you already are doing that, and those "rich" (like small business owners) are fleeing in vast herds for places that will allow them to keep just a little bit of the money they earn through their hard work.

As a lib, you probably believe these "parasites" should be FORCED to remain in Michigan, or maybe sent to some sort of camp, maybe on the Peninsula...to mine oh...uranium, or lead?

Sheesh.

Tokie

It is a sad comment on human nature that "liberals," whose appelation derives from "liberty," seek to use government to impose ideas on individuals (a goal which seems the exact opposite of liberty.) On the other hands, the "conservatives" appear to be interested in increasing government to further the economic interests of the rich. Hardly "conserving" anything; historical liberties, resources, or traditions.

[The Gnomon]

I have no clue what is happing to all the American economy, but here is what I do know about mine. I am 28 and live in Muskegon, MI. I have no job, but do have a BBA in marketing and management. I have not had a job in about a year, but have applied for hundreds and hundreds of jobs. I have a friend with a 4 year computer science degree. He is in the same boat as me, but he works 8-16 hours a week for $8 per hour. About 1 out of every 3 people I know, who are around my age or younger, can not find work. The 2 of 3 who do work can hardly keep afloat, and 5-10 years from now their jobs could be gone too. I am watching my home town, surrounding areas, and state drowned in the after effects of NAFTA. Tons of jobs and companies have left or are leaving, and in only some cases replaced with low level, low pay, retail style jobs. I am seeing costs of everything including food, gas, homes, healthcare, insurance and education go up each year. Along with that, I am watching unemployed levels hitting new highs each year. I have watched people give up and rely on only drug dealing to feed thier kids. Every where I go I hear people complain of theses problems, but no one has any answers. All this leaves me with no real sense of life security. I do not have any savings or retirement. I still live with my father. Even with my many accomplishments I lose bits self worth everyday I don’t work. I have no obtainable plan in life anymore. It fells I have no power at all over my situation. This is my America, and this is my economic situation. So is the American economy collapsing? I think it depends on who you ask. I think the millionaires who made a killing on exporting jobs; will have a different answer from the college graduates who can not find one.

The US Medical profession would be even less able to provide even minimum services without extensive importation of professionals from other counties. Even in Michigan, there are probably some fields which are under-supplied. They may not be what one wants to do, but there is no known right to be offered job opportunities in one's specific area of interest.

[Clairvoyant_Kyle]

The US Medical profession would be even less able to provide even minimum services without extensive importation of professionals from other counties. Even in Michigan, there are probably some fields which are under-supplied. They may not be what one wants to do, but there is no known right to be offered job opportunities in one's specific area of interest.

You are right. The medical field is one of the few fields still good in my area. I have applied for 20-25 different medical jobs both full and part time with no success. There being very few jobs people with years of experience are beating me out of entry level these positions. As for other fields that are under staffed I am not aware of any. You speak as if I am being picky, but truly I have applied for jobs I am way over qualified for. And still people with years of experience who lost their old jobs are getting the chance.

[Miss Whiplash]

It is a sad comment on human nature that "liberals," whose appelation derives from "liberty," seek to use government to impose ideas on individuals (a goal which seems the exact opposite of liberty.) On the other hands, the "conservatives" appear to be interested in increasing government to further the economic interests of the rich. Hardly "conserving" anything; historical liberties, resources, or traditions.

I've become famous elsewhere for this quote, so I'll repeat it here. The root word of "neocon" is constipation. ;)

[edteach]

All the numbers are showing that the economy is most likely in recession. The neocons have been saying there is no recession and things are good look at jobs and productivity. when they drop like rocks they turn to some other number they think bolsters their bull crap. the numbers are not there anymore. The fed is lowering interest rates so our dollar is dropping like a rock and we are making the future even harder to fix than taking our pill now. Bush and his neocon morons are making it a hard job for the next democrat pres. to fix. he will go down in history as the dumbest idiot on the block

[amb]

It seems as if the fuse was lit with the invasion of Iraq. Any moron could see the quagmire the US was creating, and for what purpose.? Oil of course. The multinational oil companies all promised cheaper oil if they could control the Iraqi oil fields. Need I remind you the opposite has happened. And guess who controls the oilfields?
Don't be surprised if a clone of G. W. B. is the next President if Obama is selected as the Democrat candidate. I don't believe America will vote for an African American.

[a_unique_person]

It seems as if the fuse was lit with the invasion of Iraq. Any moron could see the quagmire the US was creating, and for what purpose.? Oil of course. The multinational oil companies all promised cheaper oil if they could control the Iraqi oil fields. Need I remind you the opposite has happened. And guess who controls the oilfields?
Don't be surprised if a clone of G. W. B. is the next President if Obama is selected as the Democrat candidate. I don't believe America will vote for an African American.

I don't know. There are sections of America that wouldn't tolerate, there are sections of it that would vote for Obama purely on the basis that they think he is the best candidate for President. It all depends on who there is more of and who gets out and votes.

I was listening to a comentator on the radio, noting that the hatred expressed for Hilary is much more virulent and sexist than anything racist directed at Obama.

[amb]

If Obama can pull it off or not, history will be made. The Republics win, it's almost like a third term for the neo-conservatives. Obama wins, he will be the first African American President. If by some miracle Clinton gets up. The first ever woman as President.
I still feel the Democrats have shot themselves in the foot once again by having the wrong candidates.

[blutoski]

If Obama can pull it off or not, history will be made. The Republics win, it's almost like a third term for the neo-conservatives.

Third? More like sixth, with a brief "backslide" in the '90s where we subjected to temporary non-neocon rule.

The Onion was prescient, as usual: [Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over' (http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784)]

[a_unique_person]

If Obama can pull it off or not, history will be made. The Republics win, it's almost like a third term for the neo-conservatives. Obama wins, he will be the first African American President. If by some miracle Clinton gets up. The first ever woman as President.
I still feel the Democrats have shot themselves in the foot once again by having the wrong candidates.

I see it as a win/win for the Democrats. Either way, one more historical hangover, only white males can be president, is ended.

[The Atheist]

I still feel the Democrats have shot themselves in the foot once again by having the wrong candidates.

I may have got the (R) guy wrong, but I said exactly that (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=3088895#post3088895) about Obama/Billary a while back.

[a_unique_person]

Third? More like sixth, with a brief "backslide" in the '90s where we subjected to temporary non-neocon rule.

The Onion was prescient, as usual: [Bush: 'Our Long National Nightmare Of Peace And Prosperity Is Finally Over' (http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28784)]

Did they really write that back in Jan 2001?



During the 40-minute speech, Bush also promised to bring an end to the severe war drought that plagued the nation under Clinton, assuring citizens that the U.S. will engage in at least one Gulf War-level armed conflict in the next four years.

[amb]

I may have got the (R) guy wrong, but I said exactly that (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=3088895#post3088895) about Obama/Billary a while back.Who said prophecy was dead? You my friend will be proved right. The only blemish is the name. It won't be Giuliani, it will be Mc Cain. And just like the Roman Empire, the foundation for the spiraling downfall of the American Empire has been set.
Hail the new Empires of Europe and China and possibly, India.

[President Bush]

Did they really write that back in Jan 2001?


Another (http://www.theonion.com/content/video/diebold_accidentally_leaks) prediction from the Onion.

[The Atheist]

The only blemish is the name. It won't be Giuliani, it will be Mc Cain.

Still, I doubt many people would have picked McCain in October, so I don't mind that one!

:bgrin:

Whatever the result, this election will be remembered as the one where the NWO realised Giuliani was abit too libberul and shot down his campaign.

Another (http://www.theonion.com/content/video/diebold_accidentally_leaks) prediction from the Onion.

:dl:

Yeah, I'd seen that. Classic Onion.

We still use pieces of paper over here.

[amb]

The European Union is already outspending America in space exploration.
China is not far behind.
The first man on Mars may be a German. Isn't that ironic?

[blutoski]

The European Union is already outspending America in space exploration.
China is not far behind.
The first man on Mars may be a German. Isn't that ironic?

I'm betting on China.

It will live up to its nickname: the red planet.

[a_unique_person]

I must say, Tokie got something right for once. Excellent topic

http://business.theage.com.au/credit-crunch-traps-bear-stearns/20080315-1zlp.html



The rocky ride in US stocks looks set to intensify next week with the survival of one of the biggest investment banks in doubt and regulators rapidly burning through options to limit more damage to the financial system.

All eyes will again be on Bear Stearns come Monday for any further word about the condition of the fifth-largest US investment bank, which on Friday had to get emergency funding as fallout from the global credit crisis took its toll.

Bear Stearns is among four major Wall Street firms reporting earnings next week.

[The Atheist]

Yes, I can't wait until the markets open today.

Damn Tokie being banned. This woulda been lots of fun.

Even China won't play. (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10498518)

[idunno]

Tokie has already stated, for the record, that he moves from forum to forum as he is kicked off of them in rotation. I suppose it's unfair of us to expect him to come up to expectations that differ a whole lot from what he's used to. Soooo unfair.

I want to see some backup for that 4 to 5% per quarter thing. Even per year (say, this last year).

thanks to the weak dollar im a rich alien when i travel to the US or order from Amazon

[a_unique_person]

Bear Stears sold for $2 a share. Wish I'd gone short on them.

[The Atheist]

Here you go: this bloke (http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/)is no fool.

Here's what he has to say in his recent newsletter:

To understand the Fed actions one has to realize that there is now a rising probability of a "catastrophic" financial and economic outcome, i.e. a vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe. The Fed is seriously worried about this vicious circle and about the risks of a systemic financial meltdown.


That is the reason the Fed had thrown all caution to the wind - after a year in which it was behind the curve and underplaying the economic and financial risks - and has taken a very aggressive approach to risk management; this is a much more aggressive approach than the Greenspan one in spite of the initial views that the Bernanke Fed would be more cautious than Greenspan in reacting to economic and financial vulnerabilities.

Start first with the recession that is now enveloping the US economy. Let us assume - as likely - that this recession - that already started in December 2007 - will be worse than the mild ones - that lasted 8 months - that occurred in 1990-91 and 2001. The recession of 2008 will be more severe for several reasons

It's quite a long mail-out, so I won't put it all up here. If you want to see the whole thing, where he exposes 12 major threats to the US economy, PM or e mail me. Preferably e mail as I can then just forward the entire text.

[Puppycow]

Bear Stears sold for $2 a share. Wish I'd gone short on them.

Talk about a Bear Market!

Probably will be a steal in the long run for JP, no?

ETA:
Says here (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/16/AR2008031601672.html?hpid=topnews):
JPMorgan's acquisition of Bear Stearns represents roughly 1 percent of what the investment bank was worth just 16 days ago.
Glad I didn't own any of that (except maybe as a component of an index fund).

[amb]

I heard today from a well respected economist who usually is correct that the American Economy at present is as he described it, ''A train wreck.''
And for anybody conteplating buying shares to forget the shares and buy gold.
He claims that because of the weak American dollar gold will head towards 2.000 dollars an ounce. Oil is another good investment because of demand by developing nations such as China and India. Be prepared for petrol hitting $1.60 a lt. Aust. before years end.

[Chaos]

*snip*Be prepared for petrol hitting $1.60 a lt. Aust. before years end.

You mean, $1.60 per metric liter? Dude, petrol has been 1.40 Euro per liter for years, with right now is $2.10 per liter.

[Nogbad]

OK I am not sure about collapsing but things do look increasingly bleak. No wonder GW was tap dancing at the prospect of handing the mantle over to McCain.

[Francesca R]

Probably will be a steal in the long run for JP, no?Not necessarily (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=3534104#post3534104), but JPM hopes so.

[amb]

You mean, $1.60 per metric liter? Dude, petrol has been 1.40 Euro per liter for years, with right now is $2.10 per liter.

We In Australia at present are paying between $1.35--$1.45 per liter.
But the big difference between us are the distances we have to travel.
The average vehicle in Australia travels around 20.000 Km per year.
Public transport in most cities is astrocious, so we depend on private transport more so than you guys over there.

[Chaos]

We In Australia at present are paying between $1.35--$1.45 per liter. US or Australian $$?
But the big difference between us are the distances we have to travel.

That is SO true. I think all of Germany, 80 million people and all, would fit comfortably within one of your states. Two or three times over, probably.

The average vehicle in Australia travels around 20.000 Km per year.
Public transport in most cities is astrocious, so we depend on private transport more so than you guys over there.

I´m not entirely sure that is so much more than here, though. I live about 30 km (as the car drives) from Frankfurt, and this is not considered particularly far for a commute. So, strictly pulling numbers of out my ass, I wouldn´t be surprised if the average vehicle in Germany travels at least 15,000 km per year.
Speaking of which: how many cars do you have, on average, per person? It´s, I think, about 40 million cars for 80 million people around here.

[The Atheist]

We In Australia at present are paying between $1.35--$1.45 per liter.

WTF is a liter? Over here, we use the universal metric system, which has "litres", but I dunno what you Aussies are up to!

:bgrin:

US or Australian $$?

They'll be Aussie dollars, which are only worth slightly less than US ones.

_________________________________


Just for anyone still left alive in the thread:

To the tune of Bohemian Rhapsody.

Is this the real price?
Is this just fantasy?
Financial landslide
No escape from reality
Open your eyes
And look at your buys and see.
I'm now a poor boy
High-yielding casualty
Because I bought it high, watched it blow, Rating high, value low, Any
way the
Fed goes Doesn't really matter to me, to me
Mama - just killed my fund
Quoted CDO's instead
Pulled the trigger, now it's dead
Mama - I had just begun
These CDO's have blown it all away
Mama - oooh
I still wanna buy
I sometimes wish I'd never left Goldman at all.
[Musical Interlude]
I see a little silhouette of a Fed
Bernanke! Bernanke! Can you save the whole market?
Monolines and munis - very very frightening me!
Super senior, super senior
Super senior CDO - magnifico
I'm long of subprime, nobody loves me
He's long of subprime CDO fantasy
Spare the margin call you monstrous PB!
Peloton! No - we will not let you go - let him go Peloton! We will not
let you
go - let him go Peloton! We will not let you go - let me go Will not let
you go
- let me go (never) Never let you go - let me go Never let me go - ooo
No, no, no, no, no, no, no, -
Oh mama mia, mama mia, mama mia let me go S&P had the devil put aside
for me For
me, for me, for me
So you think you can fund me and spit in my eye?
And then margin call me and leave me to die Oh PB - can't do this to me
PB Just
Gotta get out - just gotta get right outta here
Ooh yeah, ooh yeah
No price really matters
No liquidity
Nothing really matters - no price really matters to me
Any way the Fed goes.....

[a_unique_person]

And another one bites the dust
And another one comes, and another one comes
And another one bites, the dust.


Hmmm, that was pretty simple :)



AS I was saying: don't expect happy share market and asset-inflating days to be here again, any time soon.
While we might know a cat has nine lives, we don't know how many bounces a dead one has. Especially one coated in market Flubber.
The first, and I have to say rather obvious, lesson yet to be learned by many - most? - is that an announcement of a bailout or a policy boost in the US is actually an announcement that 'the problem' is worse.
Further, every succeeding announcement not only tells us the problem is worse, but that the responsible authorities - whether Fed or US government or both - haven't a clue what to do about it.
And more disturbingly, don't even know what the problem is. Both in the Bear Stearns small and the credit crisis big.
That's to say, they don't now what to do about something they don't know what it is.
Last week's $US200 billion liquidity injection was the emblematic demonstration of all this.

Wall St reacted as if the second coming - of the bull market - had arrived. The Dow soared more than 400 points.
Yet not only did the injection achieve all of four-fifths of five-eighths of very little in that general sense.

It neither anticipated, nor self-evidently addressed - far less, 'solved' - the Bear Stearns specific issue.




Not much joy from Terry. :(

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23392601-36281,00.html

How much worse will it get before it gets better?

[amb]

US or Australian $$?


That is SO true. I think all of Germany, 80 million people and all, would fit comfortably within one of your states. Two or three times over, probably.



I´m not entirely sure that is so much more than here, though. I live about 30 km (as the car drives) from Frankfurt, and this is not considered particularly far for a commute. So, strictly pulling numbers of out my ass, I wouldn´t be surprised if the average vehicle in Germany travels at least 15,000 km per year.
Speaking of which: how many cars do you have, on average, per person? It´s, I think, about 40 million cars for 80 million people around here.Population of Australia has reached 21 million, mostly living around the coastal
areas as most of the interior of the place is semi or fully desert. Car ownership is very high here because of as I said, public transport, especially here in the west is bad. Most family units posses at least 2 cars. But a fair few pensioners, single folk who still live at home and others don't have a car.
I would estimate something like 15 million cars here. And just today as we approach Easter weekend, the price of fuel has rocketed to 1.50 per litre Aust. Car sales here are around or close to 1 million per year with Toyota having a 24% share of the market, followed by GM on around 18%. Ford has had a few very bad years and is in danger of slipping to fourth after Mazda who are going from strength to strength. That would be bad for our manufacturing sector as Ford still builds a large car here as Mazda is an importer only, as is Mitsubishi, Nissan, Subaru and Hyundai ect.

[Damien Evans]

Population of Australia has reached 21 million, mostly living around the coastal
areas as most of the interior of the place is semi or fully desert. Car ownership is very high here because of as I said, public transport, especially here in the west is bad. Most family units posses at least 2 cars. But a fair few pensioners, single folk who still live at home and others don't have a car.
I would estimate something like 15 million cars here. And just today as we approach Easter weekend, the price of fuel has rocketed to 1.50 per litre Aust. Car sales here are around or close to 1 million per year with Toyota having a 24% share of the market, followed by GM on around 18%. Ford has had a few very bad years and is in danger of slipping to fourth after Mazda who are going from strength to strength. That would be bad for our manufacturing sector as Ford still builds a large car here as Mazda is an importer only, as is Mitsubishi, Nissan, Subaru and Hyundai ect.

Ah, but have a guess who owns a controlling share in Mazda?

Yep, that's right, Ford.

[a_unique_person]

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/19/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm?postversion=2008031916

The market goes, up then straight back down again. Not much in the way of interest rates left to cut.

At the same time, inflation is a major concern.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/18/news/economy/cnn_poll_inflation/index.htm?postversion=2008031813

How do you fight inflation? By raising interest rates, of course.

[The Atheist]

Has there ever been a better example of dead-cat bounce than yesterday?

To add to today's woes, Global Clearing House has raised its margin requirement from 10% to an unprecedented 75%.

Trouser shops had a great day in the financial districts.

[Corsair 115]

So, has there been any in-depth analysis yet of all the factors which contributed to the subprime mortgage debacle and subsequent credit crisis? Or is the focus still on cleaning up the mess and not in determining and fixing the issues which led to the mess in the first place?

[Francesca R]

So, has there been any in-depth analysis yet of all the factors which contributed to the subprime mortgage debacle and subsequent credit crisis? Yeah. It's all here (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=107053)

And behind all that . . . well I suppose it's Greenspan's final experiment gone haywire.

[amb]

Ah, but have a guess who owns a controlling share in Mazda?

Yep, that's right, Ford. 31% I understand. That's not a controlling stake. The way things are going, Mazda may very well controll Ford in future.
I state my bias, I own a Mazda 6 Classic which originaly had a lot of imput from Ford in the design I'm sure.

[a_unique_person]

I find it curious there isn't more interest in this topic.

[jimbob]

probably the poster of the OP...

[Kestrel]

So, has there been any in-depth analysis yet of all the factors which contributed to the subprime mortgage debacle and subsequent credit crisis? Or is the focus still on cleaning up the mess and not in determining and fixing the issues which led to the mess in the first place?

The analysis here (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJ_qK4g6ntM) is absolutely hilarious and dead on target.

[Darkhole]

IAnd for anybody conteplating buying shares to forget the shares and buy gold.


Gold Falls to Biggest Weekly Drop Since 1990 ;)


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aGS2lkzrBbwE&refer=commodities

[amb]

A wise old rich man once told me, ''Don't put your money in the bank, buy the bank's shares'' I wish I had listened to him. Some Australian banks had shares as low as $5 at one time. The same shares are now around $30 per share.

[bruto]

A wise old rich man once told me, ''Don't put your money in the bank, buy the bank's shares'' I wish I had listened to him. Some Australian banks had shares as low as $5 at one time. The same shares are now around $30 per share.INvestment banks look like a good shot right about now. How about some Bear, Stearns? :D

[amb]

INvestment banks look like a good shot right about now. How about some Bear, Stearns? :DDon't ask for my advice. I'm broke. But if you could borrow for the day a 'bear' from the zoo, and use it to walk into a bank and rob it, with the bear by your side the bank tellers will fall over backwards to hand over the cash. :p :D

[a_unique_person]

GLOBAL CRISES NO THREAT TO ECONOMY!

I didn't know things were that bad.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/no-need-for-panic-ceos/2008/03/28/1206207412943.html



AUSTRALIA'S top chief executives do not believe the local economy is headed for crisis despite rising inflation, sharply higher interest rates, wild fluctuations in global financial markets and big falls in personal wealth following the plunge in sharemarkets.
An exclusive survey of corporate leaders conducted this week by The Age shows chief executives of companies including Telstra, the National Australia Bank and Leighton Holdings, and leading investment banks remain cautiously optimistic about Australia's economic and corporate prospects. Most of those interviewed do not expect any improvement in the economy for at least 12 months.
The CEOs said that while extreme volatility in global credit and equity markets had sent bank lending rates soaring and unnerved sharemarket investors, Australian companies generally were in much better condition than their peers in North America or Europe.

[a_unique_person]

The headlines just keep on coming.

http://business.theage.com.au/us-economy-watchers-should-be-alert-and-alarmed/20080406-2444.html



PROFESSOR Nouriel Roubini of New York University is often cited in this column as being the foremost critic of US economic policy — if one could use that word to describe the total mess the clowns and crooks in charge in New York and Washington are inflicting on the nation and perhaps the world.
Those who have watched as his terrifying economic predictions fall into place will be thoroughly distressed to discover that his colleague and friend Charles Morris, author of several books on financial history, has just published The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers, and the Great Credit Crash, which confirms all our worst fears.
We watch hopelessly as the entire leveraged system falls apart, proving you cannot manufacture economies from phoney house prices and get away with it for long. Morris estimates the losses from this financial crisis may be as high as $US1 trillion ($A1.1 trillion):
"$US1 trillion is the amount of defaults and write-downs Americans will likely witness before they emerge at the far side of the bursting credit bubble," estimates Morris, and that calculation assumes an orderly unwinding of the US credit market.
Either way Morris has finally put subprime in its rightful place as just one boulder "in an avalanche of asset write-downs that will rattle on through much of 2008".
Roubini estimated, and I reported, $US1 trillion of losses in February. He points out that this has now become conventional wisdom as George Magnus, Martin Wolf and now Morris are all coming up with a similar estimate.

[dann]

The Financial Crisis (http://www.ruthlesscriticism.com/finance.htm).

[a_unique_person]

Britain steps up.

http://business.theage.com.au/uk-central-bank-prepares-a-107-billion-rescue-plan/20080419-279f.html



THE Bank of England is preparing to announce a plan to swap £50 billion ($A107 billion) of government bonds for British banks' mortgages.
The plan, to be unveiled this week, involves government bonds with a maturity of up to one year, the BBC reported on Friday. They would be rolled over for up to three years.
The BBC said the plan would be the biggest special initiative by British monetary authorities to supply liquidity to the British banking system, and would meet banks' demands for "longer term loans" while escaping being accounted for in the national debt.
"The chancellor has made very clear that work is under way at the highest levels to ensure that the secondary market returns to functioning normally," a Treasury official said, in reference to Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling. "An announcement will be made in due course."
The Bank of England declined to comment on the BBC report.

[amb]

Year to date car sales in America are down on last year. As are luxury goods such as LCD and plasma TVs. and other goods, mainly Chinese imports. The old saying, when America sneezes, nations such as Australia catch a cold still holds. Only this time a spanner has been thrown in the works, namely China. What nation will take up the slack of American imports from China. It could mean even cheaper Chinese goods as they try to shift manufactured goods to other markets. But will the rest of the world reach saturation point and cause a Chinese collapse? Nations that are now booming because of China's insatiable hunger for raw materials will suffer a downturn also.

[a_unique_person]

Australian Conservative MP says US economy is in for a lot worse to come.

http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2229254.htm



MALCOLM TURNBALL, SHADOW TREASURER: Kerry, in order to have a real impact on inflation, you'd have to have spending cuts in excess of $5 billion in this year, in the coming year. That's to say, you'd have to have spending cuts equal to 0.5 per cent of GDP or more. That is a very big number. My concern is we are in a very uncertain global economic environment. The US is in recession, that's the overwhelming opinion of economists. There's already been an 11 per cent decline in housing prices in the last year, 15 per cent to date from the peak, with another 20 per cent to come. The US economy, 28 per cent of global GDP is in for a very rough time and that's affecting everybody. We've seen the cost of credit, interest rates between banks and banks' ability to borrow money becoming more expensive and that's impacted on home buyers and borrowers everywhere, business and personal, here in Australia. So my point is, we've got some tough times coming ahead.

They're very uncertain times. This is a time to be cautious and that's why I've criticised Mr Swan for saying inflation is out of control. He's been exacerbating inflationary expectations and making our existing problems worse by his inflammatory rhetoric.

[amb]

Swan is only stating the obvious. What would he do? shoot the messenger?
Turnbull has the audacity to criticize the present treasurer when it was his mates Costello and Howard that splurged 31 billion dollars of tax cuts in an attempt to get re-elected. If this government withheld the tax cuts they would be the first to jump up and down. What hypocrites.

[a_unique_person]

You get used to it after a few decades....

[Michelle Lyon]

I'm not seeing either a pretty picture nor a total economic collapse. I'm seeing a return to common sense.

Americans are trained from a very early age that we are nobody, we are scum, if we don't buy the very latest and greatest ________ on the market, preferably before the Joneses have it. So a lot of us aspire to those picture-perfect dreams, and when the money runs out, well that's okay, we have credit. It doesn't matter who we are as people, what our jobs are, what our contributions to society are, what matters is whether someone owns the fancy house, the SUV, the children in private schools, the brand name clothes, the umpteen plastic cards in the wallet. So yes, every few years, the people who buy into this commercialized dream, face financial problems because they weren't buying all this stuff for themselves and living within their true means. They were aspiring to a lifestyle enjoyed by actually a very small percent of the population, and buying to impress their friends and families and climb the social ladder, because that's how they measure their self-worth, and that's how they are measured by others.

If an individual can actually afford to live the cush lifestyle then that's one thing. It's the people who don't actually have the money, but buy the fancy stuff anyway on credit, that end up in trouble. When there's enough of these folks getting in trouble all at once, that's when the national economy slows down.

I mean it's like my car. Yes it's a dented clunker from the 80's and not exactly a Lexus hybrid, and she gets her share of points and snickers, but I own it free and clear, I can haul sculptures around or go camping without worrying about the paint, and I can afford to maintain it (older car = lower insurance and cheaper parts). Most students I know can't say that about their own cars. I will still be driving and partaking in college life when theirs are reposessed by lienholders or parked because gas is too high. That is how we ought to be measuring our successes, not by how much material stuff we can buy on credit. If everyone bought whatever teeny house they could buy up front and own the title to, rather than entering into mortgage contracts they don't understand, there would be no foreclosures.

[diggy70]

I

If an individual can actually afford to live the cush lifestyle then that's one thing. It's the people who don't actually have the money, but buy the fancy stuff anyway on credit, that end up in trouble. When there's enough of these folks getting in trouble all at once, that's when the national economy slows down.

IMO.

BANG. you hit the nail on the head... 80% of US house holds have way to much debt. so when the economy slows you may get a bad ripple effect. vs if consumers where holding less debt.

[amb]

To add to the problem, you now have a China hit by an earthquake that may have an effect on their economy which in turn may effect most western nations, not just the USA.

[ronpaulisright]

I'm not seeing either a pretty picture nor a total economic collapse. I'm seeing a return to common sense.

Americans are trained from a very early age that we are nobody, we are scum, if we don't buy the very latest and greatest ________ on the market, preferably before the Joneses have it. So a lot of us aspire to those picture-perfect dreams, and when the money runs out, well that's okay, we have credit. It doesn't matter who we are as people, what our jobs are, what our contributions to society are, what matters is whether someone owns the fancy house, the SUV, the children in private schools, the brand name clothes, the umpteen plastic cards in the wallet. So yes, every few years, the people who buy into this commercialized dream, face financial problems because they weren't buying all this stuff for themselves and living within their true means. They were aspiring to a lifestyle enjoyed by actually a very small percent of the population, and buying to impress their friends and families and climb the social ladder, because that's how they measure their self-worth, and that's how they are measured by others.

If an individual can actually afford to live the cush lifestyle then that's one thing. It's the people who don't actually have the money, but buy the fancy stuff anyway on credit, that end up in trouble. When there's enough of these folks getting in trouble all at once, that's when the national economy slows down.

I mean it's like my car. Yes it's a dented clunker from the 80's and not exactly a Lexus hybrid, and she gets her share of points and snickers, but I own it free and clear, I can haul sculptures around or go camping without worrying about the paint, and I can afford to maintain it (older car = lower insurance and cheaper parts). Most students I know can't say that about their own cars. I will still be driving and partaking in college life when theirs are reposessed by lienholders or parked because gas is too high. That is how we ought to be measuring our successes, not by how much material stuff we can buy on credit. If everyone bought whatever teeny house they could buy up front and own the title to, rather than entering into mortgage contracts they don't understand, there would be no foreclosures.

Well, when you have a money machine that prints money out of thin air and devalues the currency, you're gonna have a failed currency. All paper currency crumbles eventually. They don't last long.

[amb]

Paper currency without a gold reserve to back it is just that. Paper.

[Shalamar]

Paper currency without a gold reserve to back it is just that. Paper.

Why does it have to be gold?

I say backing money with something more useful would be better. Lets go to the iPod standard!

[Chaos]

Paper currency without a gold reserve to back it is just that. Paper.

Paper currency without a gold reserve is just that. Currency.

[amb]

What good is currency in a place like Zimbabwe? You need a wheelbarrow full just to buy a loaf of bread.

[bobrayner]

Paper currency without a gold reserve to back it is just that. Paper.

The paper is useful as a currency because there's a persistent and widespread agreement that it's valuable.

The same applies to gold.

Perhaps tomorrow everybody could lose confidence in paper money (or even, indeed, in the electronic stuff that substitutes for paper in most transactions in developed countries); but perhaps people could lose confidence in the gold too. What's special about gold once you subtract the general belief that it's valuable? It's just a heavy, soft metal with a few specialist industrial uses that scarcely justify all the mining and speculation.

If you do not trust the consensus and want to revert to some idea of "what actually has value", try using bread or electricity as money.

[amb]

What actually has value Oil.

[bobrayner]

What actually has value Oil.

Out of all the goods & services that we use from day to day, why pick oil?

Nonetheless, I'll run with it. Can you imagine a financial system that's tied to supply and demand of a single arbitrary product which has rather turbulent prices? If dollars were replaced with oil-tokens, what would have happened to the American (or global) economy over the last few years of huge rises & falls in oil prices? The word chaos springs to mind.

Current-day currencies in developed countries are stable and very good at doing the things we expect of money. A system based on one arbitrary commodity would not be.

[amb]

Has the 'batter system' been given a fair go?
Currency is a capitalist system that has worked well over the centuries.
But I sometimes wonder if some other system would not work as well, like the batter system.
Nations with an abundance of raw materials could batter say, a ton of iron ore for a ton of wheat, or a container of manufactured goods. That way nations like Japan who have an abundance of technology could swap it for raw material that's needed by the general population.
A pipe dream? Probably yes.

[bobrayner]

Has the 'batter system' been given a fair go?
Currency is a capitalist system that has worked well over the centuries.
But I sometimes wonder if some other system would not work as well, like the batter system.
Nations with an abundance of raw materials could batter say, a ton of iron ore for a ton of wheat, or a container of manufactured goods. That way nations like Japan who have an abundance of technology could swap it for raw material that's needed by the general population.
A pipe dream? Probably yes.

Do you mean the barter system?

It works, in a very limited way. However, it has severe limitations; it's very unlikely that each person you want to buy goods/services from will want the goods/services that you produce; so you need to carry round (and save) a lot of other people's goods and services somehow. Also, many goods and services are difficult to store, and they're impractical as a means of accounting.

The idea that countries are economic actors rather than people is a huge oversimplification which will tend to make barter look easier than it really is. Do you think a wheat farmer really wants a ton of iron ore, or that a mine-owner or miner wants a ton of wheat? And how will either of them pay at the gas station? And how will anybody save for retirement - with a big stack of ipods in their attic? And how will anybody accumulate enough resources to indulge in the capital-intensive activities that have brought us all the wonders of modern civilisation?

We've invented a solution for all these problems, which still retains the few benefits of the barter system. The solution is money.

Occasionally, governments will screw up the money system so badly that people revert to barter. This is very damaging but thankfully it's very rare.

[jimbob]

I suggest reading "The Wealth of Nations" by Adam Smith. It is old, but he was observing the rise of the paper-money system.

As has been posted before (by bobrayner, for example) the money system has advantages over the barter-system, and which are inherent to the use of "tokens".

If we did have a arter system, a group of middlemen could get rich (in goods) by offering to exchange goods for promises to give out goods in a different branch in a different location. They might even promise to exchange a set amount of "gold" for a piece of paper in their name promising to give out this set amount of gold. The difference being that the paper is more portable...

Eventuall money would be reinvented (and bloody quickly this time) because of its benefits.

[amb]

The batter system? :o That will be right, A batter system. Beer batter perhaps?
Of course my spell checker let me down again.