Iowa Straw Poll Prediction Contest

[Brainster]

Okay, time to put on your prediction hats and tell us the order of finish of the top five candidates for the Republicans and Democrats in the Iowa Straw Poll on January 3, 2008.

Rules: List your candidates from 1-5 in each party. A correct placement for any candidate as determined by the order of results published in the New York Times or similar mass media outlet will result in 10 points. If you are off by 1 in the placement of any candidate, you will receive 5 points. A perfect score (placing all five candidates for each party in the proper order) is 100.

My predictions:

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Giuliani

Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4. Biden
5. Richardson

[Richard Masters]

1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
Ron Paul
4. Thompson
5. McCain


1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden

[Dr Adequate]

1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
Ron Paul
4. Thompson
5. McCain Ron Paul is not a number. He is a free man.

[OldTigerCub]

GOP
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Giuliani
4. McCain
5. Thompson


Dems
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson

[TShaitanaku]

My predictions:

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Giuliani

Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4. Biden
5. Richardson

Rightards
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Giuliani
4. McCain
5. Thompson

Democans
1. Edwards
2. Clinton
3. Obama
4. Dodd
5. Richardson

[Richard Masters]

Ron Paul is not a number. He is a free man.

Hahaha.

[ZenFountain]

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Paul
5. Thompson

[andyandy]

People's Democratic Party of America

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson

(i've never heard of Biden or Richardson, but i needed to fill up my democrat list, so i've just copied brainster ;))

People's Republican Party of America

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Gulliani
4. Thompson
5. Ron Paul

....bit of a stab in the dark from a Brit here - so if any of you US citizens get beaten you should hang your heards shame :)

[steverino]

People's Democratic Party of America

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson

(i've never heard of Biden or Richardson, but i needed to fill up my democrat list, so i've just copied brainster ;))

People's Republican Party of America

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Gulliani
4. Thompson
5. Ron Paul

....bit of a stab in the dark from a Brit here - so if any of you US citizens get beaten you should hang your heards shame :)

1) Huckabee
2) McCain
3) Romney
4) Giuliani
5) Thompson
=============

1) Edwards
2) Clinton
3) Obama
4) Richardson
5) Biden


(I predict McCain gets a bump up because of the Pakistan thinggy.)

[leftysergeant]

GOP

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Thompson
Paul
Giuliani

Dem
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Dodd
Biden
Richardson

A strong showing by Obama and Edwards could knock off one or two of the second tier and re-align the leads in later contests. I would expect Edwards to pick up most of the following of Dodd, Biden and Richardson should they peter out.

Dodd's public statements since the Bhutto assasination will make a big difference one way or the other, but I am not sure how. They may actually gain him some of Clinton's voters.

[In My Spare Time]

R:
Huckabee
Romney
Guiliani
Paul
Thompson

D:
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Richardson
Biden

[The Central Scrutinizer]

GOP:

1) Ron Paul 117%
2) Everyone else tied with 0%

[Brainster]

1. Giuliani
2. Romney
3. Huckabee
Ron Paul
4. Thompson
5. McCain


1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden

Please clarify your predicted finish for Ron Paul. Tied with Huckabee?

[Firestone]

My predictions:

Republicans
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Paul

Democrats
1. Clinton
2. Obama
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden

[Faithless]

My predictions:

Republicans
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Paul


Democrats
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Richardson
5. Biden

[andyandy]

oops i forgot about McCain in my prediction...he's bound to get more than Ron Paul and some tv actor isn't he?

am i allowed to change my prediction?

People's Democratic Party of U.S.A U.S.A!

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson


People's Republican Party of God Save America!

1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Gulliani
4. McCain
5. Ron Paul

[Puppycow]

Okay, time to put on your prediction hats and tell us the order of finish of the top five candidates for the Republicans and Democrats in the Iowa Straw Poll on January 3, 2008.

Straw Poll?!?! :mad: ;)

It's the Iowa Caucus! :hit:

GOP
1. Romney
2. Huckster
3. McCain
4. Thompson
5. Paul

Dems
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Richardson
5. Biden

[corplinx]

Obama / Romney


Im not doing a list of five since the other 4 wont matter.

[NeoRicen]

It's odd, almost nobody is picking Clinton to win for the Dems, I was under the impression she was still leading the polls by a large margin.

With that (possible misconception) in mind I'd say Clinton/Romney, but what do I know.

[Puppycow]

It's odd, almost nobody is picking Clinton to win for the Dems, I was under the impression she was still leading the polls by a large margin.

With that (possible misconception) in mind I'd say Clinton/Romney, but what do I know.

Clinton would be a reasonable guess too, but her "large margin" is not large in Iowa. She seems to have a slight lead in Iowa, but withing the margin of error, and you have to consider second choices of those supporting "non-viable" candidates (those with less than 15% support). It could seemingly be any of the leading three winning Iowa. I think Romney will in fact prevail despite some people flirting with Huckabee. I think in the end they'll decide Romney is the more viable candidate (although second choices don't matter on the GOP side)

RCP polls page (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_primaries.html)

[Mister Agenda]

GOP
McCain
Romney
Giuliani
Paul
Thompson

Dem
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Richardson
Biden

[MaGZ]

Republicans:
1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. McCain
5. Thompson

Democrats:
1. Edwards
2. Obama
3. Clinton
4. Richardson
5. Biden

[Richard Masters]

Please clarify your predicted finish for Ron Paul. Tied with Huckabee?

Actually, I was predicting Ron Paul in 4th place. But I thought I was breaking some thread rules by assigning him a number.

[Puppycow]

Actually, I was predicting Ron Paul in 4th place. But I thought I was breaking some thread rules by assigning him a number.

:confused: Huh?

[leftysergeant]

The Clinton lead is razor-thin at this point, and the third-tier candidates have started naming who would be their second choice so that their supporters would have some guidance if they do not hit the 15% mark. Last I heard, they were divided mostly between Edwards and Obama.

The figures giving Clinton the lead may arise from a sample including Republicans making trouble.

[WildCat]

It's Ron Paul's big day! Just think, in 24 hours all other candidates will concede to the unstoppable internet and money-raising force that is Ron Paul! 100 internet polls can't be wrong!

All hail Ron Paul!

[timhau]

It's Ron Paul's big day! Just think, in 24 hours all other candidates will concede to the unstoppable internet and money-raising force that is Ron Paul! 100 internet polls can't be wrong!

All hail Ron Paul!

For some reason, this post reminds me of The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie.

All hail Plankton.

[Brainster]

I will consider entries closed on this contest at noon Eastern time.

[Dr Adequate]

Can Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus) play?

In a prediction of the May 10, 2008 events in Wyoming, RAPTOR JESUS has taken Iowa. This is not an unprecedented prediction — it is fact. RAPTOR JESUS will be the next president of the United States.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

And CBS just interrupted CSI for Huckabee first and then Romney, and Obama leading Clinton.

[UserGoogol]

Obama is leading Clinton, but since it's 35% Obama, 31% Clinton, 31% Edwards at the moment with 2% going to Richardson and 1% to Biden (64% of districts reporting) it's a largely meaningless lead. (Although since I like Obama, I'm glad he's nominally winning tonight.)

ETA: Hmm... as the polls finish up, Obama seems to be pulling a bit further ahead with closer to 37:30:30

[steverino]

It's looking bad for the beeyatch.:D

[Brainster]

Preliminary results (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IA) from CNN, pending confirmation of the exact positions of Thompson/McCain and Edwards/Clinton:

Republicans:
1. Huckabee
2. Romney
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Paul

Democrats:
1. Obama
2. Edwards
3. Clinton
4. Richardson
5. Biden

70 Points (if these results hold): AndyAndy, Firestone, Faithless, Puppycow.
60 Points (ditto): Mister Agenda, Lefty Sergeant
55 Points (ditto): Brainster, In My Spare Time
50 Points (see above): Richard Masters, Old Tiger Cub, Zen Fountain
45 Points (Yep): TShaitanaku, Steverino

Please feel free to correct me.

[WildCat]

I predict that Ron Paul supporters will claim the NWO fixed the Iowa caucas!

[Puppycow]

Yep. Except for Huckabee's victory, the ones I got wrong were by a razor-thin margin though. :D

[Richard Masters]

I predict that Ron Paul supporters will claim the NWO fixed the Iowa caucas!

I claim Huckabee got the evangelical vote. Nothing to do with your NWO.

[rtalman]

I claim Huckabee got the evangelical vote. Nothing to do with your NWO.
Ron Paul's % of evangelical vote: 10
Ron Paul's % of non-evangelical vote: 11

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228177

Remove the evangelical vote, Romney wins, Ron Paul still finishes a distant fifth.

[Richard Masters]

Ron Paul's % of evangelical vote: 10
Ron Paul's % of non-evangelical vote: 11

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228177

Remove the evangelical vote, Romney wins, Ron Paul still finishes a distant fifth.

You are right. But still, nothing to do with WildCat's NWO.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Ron Paul's % of evangelical vote: 10
Ron Paul's % of non-evangelical vote: 11

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228177

Remove the evangelical vote, Romney wins, Ron Paul still finishes a distant fifth.

Race
Category % Total Giuliani Huckabee Hunter McCain Paul Romney Thompson
White 99 3 33 0 13 10 25 14
Black 0 - - - - - - -
Other 1 - - - - - - -


LOL, Paul in all all-way tie for most Black vote :D .

[Richard Masters]

LOL, Paul in all all-way tie for most Black vote :D .

LOL.

[rtalman]

You are right. But still, nothing to do with WildCat's NWO.:)

Still, Paul did much better than I expected. You said that he only campaigned in a few counties... he did quite well in some counties (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228645), and won Jefferson County. I could be wrong about his appeal. Wyoming Republican caucus is this Saturday, a very libertarian (small 'l') state, and I am interested to see the results in the NH primary.

[Richard Masters]

:)

Still, Paul did much better than I expected. You said that he only campaigned in a few counties... he did quite well in some counties (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228645), and won Jefferson County. I could be wrong about his appeal. Wyoming Republican caucus is this Saturday, a very libertarian (small 'l') state, and I am interested to see the results in the NH primary.

:) Yeah, I'd like to see him do well in NH. He got a lot of the independent vote in Iowa, and NH should be pretty telling of how he'll do nation-wide.

The only three candidates I cannot support are Giuliani, Hillary and Huckabee.

Who do you like?

[leftysergeant]

I was listening to the reports on AAR, and some talking head suggested that Oprah Winfrey may have been a serious king-maker in this contest. Rupert Murdoch must be reaching for an antacid right about now. This has got to hurt his feelings, after all he did to prop up Clinton.

[Richard Masters]

I was listening to the reports on AAR, and some talking head suggested that Oprah Winfrey may have been a serious king-maker in this contest. Rupert Murdoch must be reaching for an antacid right about now. This has got to hurt his feelings, after all he did to prop up Clinton.

On top of that, his stock took a nose dive the last few days.

[leftysergeant]

On top of that, his stock took a nose dive the last few days.

I love schadenfreude.

[Mister Agenda]

LOL, Paul in all all-way tie for most Black vote :D .

It'll be more telling to see how this plays out in SC. Iowa is what, 95% white? I am hopeful that Obama will do well here among black voters, but Clinton has been polling well in that demographic. I expect 80%+ to vote Dem, I wonder how the remainder will split up among the Repubs.

[andyandy]

70 Points (if these results hold): AndyAndy, Firestone, Faithless, Puppycow.
.

what do i win? :)

[Brainster]

what do i win? :)

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_9777477ea5bd49b2d.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=10090)

It's a Major Award!

[ZenFountain]

Hehe, nice one Brainster. Congratulations to the winners :cool:

[Puppycow]

Looks like we need a tie-breaker. So, is there going to be a predict NH contest? It's on you Brain-boy.

[Brainster]

:)

Still, Paul did much better than I expected. You said that he only campaigned in a few counties... he did quite well in some counties (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228645), and won Jefferson County. I could be wrong about his appeal. Wyoming Republican caucus is this Saturday, a very libertarian (small 'l') state....

Ron's going to have to get his mojo from somewhere else (http://youdecide08.foxnews.com/2008/01/05/wyoming-republicans-seek-political-spotlight-with-early-caucus/):

The former Massachusetts governor won eight delegates, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson got two and California Rep. Duncan Hunter won one, meaning no other candidate could beat Romney. Caucuses were still being held to decide all 12 delegates at stake.

Huckabee, McCain & Giuliani did not campaign in Wyoming.

[leftysergeant]

Lot of Mormons in Wyoming. Not many fundies. Looks good for McCain even without campaigning hard. Huckabee may have problems. RP might pick up a few, but he is not popular with party regulars. The burn-out factor may be even more important. Low turn-out of the regulars will be bad news for Huckabee. Hunter and RP would be the main beneficiaries. Rudy is well advised not to throw money at the state. He is not likely to get much for a buck. Thompson might as well take a nap. He looks like he needs it anyway.