Possibility of Ron Paul winning a swing state?

[DarthFishy]

DISCLAIMER: I am a not from the USA and while I think Ron Paul winning anything at all in the American Elections would make for entertaining TV I'm not really a supporter. Just using him as an example. (And as a dirty trick to get people to reply to this thread :p).

I'm trying to understand something about the US Elections. As far as I understand in the Elections in November, the votes per state determines which canadidate obtains that states seats in the Electoral College. Right?

Now most states are either mostly Republican or Democrat as I understand, and there are only a number of so-called "Swing States" that are undecided. And thus the states that a candidate needs to win to win the Electoral College.

What I would like to know is, (a) would it be possible for a Third Party Independent, e.g. Ron Paul, to win Swing state and, more importantly (b), could that give him the power within the Electoral College to decide who the Preseident will be? Will the other leading candidates then have to bargain with him to get his vote?

I know similar situations happen in other Countries that have a more proportional representaiton system, i.e. Coalition Governments are formed, but can this happen in the US?

PS. Long time reader first time poster as well :)

[LawnOven]

What I would like to know is, (a) would it be possible for a Third Party Independent, e.g. Ron Paul, to win Swing state and, more importantly (b), could that give him the power within the Electoral College to decide who the Preseident will be? Will the other leading candidates then have to bargain with him to get his vote?

I know similar situations happen in other Countries that have a more proportional representaiton system, i.e. Coalition Governments are formed, but can this happen in the US?

PS. Long time reader first time poster as well :)

Our election system doesn't work how I think you're describing in your question.



It wouldn't matter how many states ron paul won, unless he won the most. The winner of the election is the one who gets the most electoral college votes which are distributed based on a states population (every state has at least 3 votes).

Ron Paul doesn't get to decide where those votes go.

Often by running however, third party candidates siphon off votes from one or both of the two main party's candidates.

Happened when Ross Perot ran in '92, and Nader in 2000.

Oh, and Ron Paul isn't an independent, he's running as a republican. So he has to win his parties nomination. Though I suppose he could turn third party at anytime, I'm pretty sure he said that he has no desire to do so.

Edit: Oh and "Welcome to the JREF Forums" :-)

[DarthFishy]

Ah yes I see. I was thinking more of a Parlimentary system where the President is elected by the MPs. My bad.

Oh, and Ron Paul isn't an independent, he's running as a republican. So he has to win his parties nomination. Though I suppose he could turn third party at anytime, I'm pretty sure he said that he has no desire to do so.

Yes that's what I meant, that if (most would say when) he doesn't win the nomination he would try as an Independent.

Thanx for the info :)

[LawnOven]

No problem. :)

[LawnOven]

Yes that's what I meant, that if (most would say when) he doesn't win the nomination he would try as an Independent.




Yeah, that would be interesting... because he holds an office in the House of Representatives as a Republican. So I wonder if he ran as an independent if he would have to change his party affiliation in the House. I really don't know.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

What I would like to know is, (a) would it be possible for a Third Party Independent, e.g. Ron Paul, to win Swing state

That is actually two different questions:

1) Is it possible for a third party independent candidate to swing a state? Yes

2) Is it possible for third party independent candidate Ron Paul to do it? No

[Suddenly]

There is a scenerio here. Lets say Ron Paul runs as a Libertarian and somehow wins Florida. At the same time, the two major candidates deadlock and neither wins a majority of electors.

Ron Paul would be in a position of great power at that point.

[Billdave2]

There is a scenerio here. Lets say Ron Paul runs as a Libertarian and somehow wins Florida. At the same time, the two major candidates deadlock and neither wins a majority of electors.

Ron Paul would be in a position of great power at that point.

No greater than any other member of congress. If their is no clear winner from the electoral college the election is decided by the House of Representatives IIRC. You can't "give" your electoral college votes away.

[Suddenly]

No greater than any other member of congress. If their is no clear winner from the electoral college the election is decided by the House of Representatives IIRC. You can't "give" your electoral college votes away.

Those electors can vote for who they choose. If they refuse to switch and cast votes for Paul the election goes to the house under rules that as far as I can see result in a Republican victory (I believe each state gets one vote). So immediately the game is on for the Democrats to campaign for these handful of electors, and since Ron Paul chose them it would be natural for him to be the point man in such a negotiation.

Which would of course create a massive outcry were the winner not the one with the most popular votes and maybe reform would ensue.

However, this scenerio is somewhat less likely than Martians invading and creating a puppet one-world government headed by Ron Paul....

[WildCat]

Ron Paul would be in a position of great power at that point.
Let's just call that the "Doomsday Scenario". (shudders)

[dudalb]

Let's just call that the "Doomsday Scenario". (shudders)


The political equivilent of Galactus landing in New York and announcing he just dropped in for Dinner....

[hgc]

Ron Paul is in the running to win the State of Confusion.

[Kerberos]

The political equivilent of Galactus landing in New York and announcing he just dropped in for Dinner....

Quick, someone get the Fantastic Four!

[dudalb]

Quick, someone get the Fantastic Four!

Now for you DC fans,Ron Paul being in a position to decide the next President is the political equivilent of Darkseid finding the Anti Life Equatiion.....

[Billdave2]

Those electors can vote for who they choose. If they refuse to switch and cast votes for Paul the election goes to the house under rules that as far as I can see result in a Republican victory (I believe each state gets one vote). So immediately the game is on for the Democrats to campaign for these handful of electors, and since Ron Paul chose them it would be natural for him to be the point man in such a negotiation.

Which would of course create a massive outcry were the winner not the one with the most popular votes and maybe reform would ensue.

However, this scenerio is somewhat less likely than Martians invading and creating a puppet one-world government headed by Ron Paul....

Actually, it depends. In some states it is illegal for an elector to vote for someone other than the canididate that they stood for on election day. You also have to assume that the electors would do what Ron Paul (or whoever the third party candidate they stood for was) told them to do with their vote if they did change it.

Also, if one of the candidates gets 270 or more votes it doesn't matter.

If the race were thrown to the House, each state's representatives vote to determine their states winner, and then each state votes. There are currently 26 states where the Democrats are the majority, and 21 for the Republicans. This would surely end in a Democratic President regardless of whoever won the popular vote.

In short, even if Ron Paul were to win a state, he would have very little say in what happens.

[dudalb]

The way things are going,the only way Paul can win anything is if he gets lucky on a trip to Las Vegas.

[Suddenly]

Actually, it depends. In some states it is illegal for an elector to vote for someone other than the canididate that they stood for on election day. You also have to assume that the electors would do what Ron Paul (or whoever the third party candidate they stood for was) told them to do with their vote if they did change it.

That law can't be enforced and is most likely unconstitutional besides.

Ron Paulies not doing what Ron Paul wants? I think that is even less likely than this whole silly scenerio in the first place...

[dudalb]

My Galactus/Darksied scenarios are a lot more likely then Ron Paul deciding who wins in 2008.

[timhau]

The winner of the election is the one who gets the most electoral college votes

Not quite. The winner is the one who gets the majority, 270 or more.

[Thorn]

FL is a terrible example. In the promaries, our votes don't even count.

Well, they do, but if they make a difference, they no longer count.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-florida20may20,0,5268295.story?coll=la-home-center

[Dr. Lao]

He only drew 8% in NH, where the libertarians are trying to amass a large enough constituency to change the laws and elect people.

If he can't do well there, he can't do well anywhere.

A few thousand dorks screaming and putting up yard signs does not a revolution make.

[dudalb]

A few thousand dorks screaming and putting up yard signs does not a revolution make.

That says it in a Nutshell.
Actually some of the behavior of the Paultards...like the chasing of Sean Hannity down the street...is just driving nails in the coffin.
Analogy is always suspect,but I think that analogy between Ron Paul and the film "Snakes On A Plane" might have some meat to it. In both cases, a lot of internet hype by the Geeks, but a total failure with the General public.
And I am not even sure how much of the internet support for Paul is solid. Too many dorks will put "Ron Paul For 2008" as a sig line on their posts just becuase they think it is the "cool" thing to do.

[Tailgater]

I liked "Snakes On A Plane".:boxedin:

[dudalb]

I liked "Snakes On A Plane".:boxedin:

I thought it was a lot of fun myself,but still it is the prime example of a movie that got a lot of buzz among geeks on the internet and damn few paying customers in the theaters.
Ron Paul is doing the same if you substitute Voters for paying customers.