Michigan Primary Predictions

[rtalman]

My predictions for the 1/15/08 Michigan Primary

R
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Thompson

D
Obama (in a shocker!)
Clinton
Edwards

Anyone else care to guess?

[WildCat]

Only Hillary is on the ballot in Michigan for the Dems, and no delegates are at stake.

[rtalman]

Only Hillary is on the ballot in Michigan for the Dems, and no delegates are at stake.THAT'S why the Obama win will be such a shocker! :D
OIC... well then... :hb:

[UserGoogol]

People have the option of voting Uncommitted, and I do suspect that Uncommitted might do reasonably well, and if that happens it would probably be looked at as a symbolic victory for Obama.

[Brainster]

The lack of a real race on the Democrat's side and the fact that only two candidates are really contesting Michigan for the GOP is why I didn't bother creating a contest. I will put one up for South Carolina though.

[steverino]

OK. So let's guess how (late edit) Mitt and McCain will do in Michigan.

I say Mitt wins by 4% over McCain, who comes in a strong second.

I say (unfortunately) Hillary whips Obama's ass in SC. Just a sense that Obama will get a backlash based on the color of his skin from African Americans, even though he is both. :(

[Brainster]

OK. So let's guess who Mitt and McCain will do in Michigan.

I say Mitt wins by 4% over McCain, who comes in a strong second.

My guess is McCain wins fairly easily. There have been a couple of good polls for Romney and the wildcard is that several (http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_01/012895.php) major liberal bloggers (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225) have been pushing a vote for Mitt to throw a monkey wrench into the GOP primary. But these efforts usually backfire.

[Puppycow]

My guess is McCain wins fairly easily. There have been a couple of good polls for Romney and the wildcard is that several (http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_01/012895.php) major liberal bloggers (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/1/10/2713/87225) have been pushing a vote for Mitt to throw a monkey wrench into the GOP primary. But these efforts usually backfire.

If I was a partisan Democrat, I'd push hard for Romney, too, hoping for a democratic landslide in Nov. I don't know who's going to win. The polls seem to be a wash. Intrade gives a slight edge to McCain, but then, it had Obama at 95% to win New Hampshire and was dead wrong there, so I've lost some faith in the wisdom of crowds. So it could go either way. I'll guess Romney but won't be surprised to be wrong.

ETA:
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/matchups.png
http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/openmind.png

The second one is especially damning for Romney. 62% would never vote for him! I wonder how many rank-and-file republicans are aware of this?

[rtalman]

I would think McCain would be the upset win, since it is Romney's home state, and his Dad was governor there.

[T.A.M.]

1.McCain
2.Romney
3.Huckabee
4.Guiliani
5.Thompson
6. Paul

TAM:)

[dudalb]

1.McCain
2.Romney
3.Huckabee
4.Guiliani
5.Thompson
6. Paul

TAM:)

The Paul Juggernaut roles on.
I think Romney will pull out a narrow win over McCain becuase of his "Favorite Son" status in Michigan.

[FM21.105]

Dems:
Uncommitted (If both Edwards and Obama supporters vote this, like they've been advised to, it would blow Hilary out of the water)
Hillary

Reps:
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Huckabee behind him by less than 5%



After this week's primaries, if Romney doesn't win, he drops. Ron Paul, however, will stupidly stay until the last state.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Only 2% of the precincts are reporting, but it looks like another solid victory for Ron Paul!

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MI

[UserGoogol]

With 64% of precincts reporting and the networks having called the winners an hour ago I'm just going to list what's going to probably be the final tally:

1. Romney
2. McCain
3. Huckabee
4. Paul

1. Clinton
2. Uncommitted
3. Kucinich
4. Dodd

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Hm, did the "Democrats for Romney" strategy work?

[T.A.M.]

6% for Ron Paul...that is within 1-2% of the number of 9/11 truth MIHOPers nationally (4.6%)....hmmm...conspiracy I wonder....lol

TAM:)

[rtalman]

Ron Paul is the fourth best candidate on the Republican side in Michigan. Truly, the conservative movement is dead.

[Puppycow]

Man, Giuliani has disappeared. Finishing behind Ron Paul. He's in Kucinich territory.

[Puppycow]

Hm, did the "Democrats for Romney" strategy work?

My guess is that it was lost in the rounding errors.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Man, Giuliani has disappeared. Finishing behind Ron Paul. He's in Kucinich territory.

Naw, I think Kucinich has more money :p .

[Puppycow]

Exit Polls (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21228184)
These give a rough idea of who voted for who.
Among self-described liberals, Romney barely edged out McCain, 34-32, so maybe there was a slight Kos effect there, but probably not enough to change the total by even a tenth of a percent. Among self-described Democrats, McCain won 41-33.

[Brainster]

Man, Giuliani has disappeared. Finishing behind Ron Paul. He's in Kucinich territory.

Believe it or not, he's the second biggest winner tonight. Why? Because three winners in three contests (Wyoming doesn't count) seems to validate his plan of sitting out the early states.

[Puppycow]

Believe it or not, he's the second biggest winner tonight. Why? Because three winners in three contests (Wyoming doesn't count) seems to validate his plan of sitting out the early states.

Maybe, but I think he's probably a dead duck.

He's been falling like a rock in the National polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/republican_presidential_nomination-192.html). He'll need a big bounce from Florida, but it seems like the legitimacy of Florida is a little tainted having had its delegates halved, and its only 2 days before Super Tuesday. Maybe that's good, but he absolutely has to win convincingly to get a big bounce heading into Super Tuesday. And he'll need an assist from the press, I think.

Right now, 4 candidates seem to be bunched up together in Florida (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_republican_primary-260.html).
And won't those geezers want to support the old warhorse McCain?

[Tricky]

THAT'S why the Obama win will be such a shocker! :D
OIC... well then... :hb:
Actually, Obama DID win in Michigan, according to this analyst (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/16/potentially-troubling-news-for-clinton-in-michigan-win-2/).


The Michigan primary vote was essentially meaningless: the national party stripped the state of its delegates because it held its contest too early in the election season, and Clinton was the only major Democratic contender whose name appeared on the ballot.

Even so, roughly 70 percent of Michigan’s African-American voters — a group that makes up a quarter of Michigan’s Democratic electorate — did not cast their votes for Clinton, choosing the “uncommitted” option instead. Yet these voters weren’t uncommitted at all: in fact, according to CNN exit polls, they overwhelmingly favored Barack Obama, whose name did not appear on the ballot.

Had Obama’s name been on the Michigan ballot, CNN exit polls show that he would have won an overwhelming 73 percent of the African-American vote, in contrast to 22 percent who say they would have voted for Clinton under those circumstances.

[Darth Rotor]

Actually, Obama DID win in Michigan, according to this analyst (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/16/potentially-troubling-news-for-clinton-in-michigan-win-2/).

Even so, roughly 70 percent of Michigan’s African-American voters — a group that makes up a quarter of Michigan’s Democratic electorate — did not cast their votes for Clinton, choosing the “uncommitted” option instead. Yet these voters weren’t uncommitted at all: in fact, according to CNN exit polls, they overwhelmingly favored Barack Obama, whose name did not appear on the ballot.
The Dem party puzzles me, but maybe they don't, stripping all delegates from a state with a lot of black voters.

Hmmm, an anti Obama conspiracy within the Dem party? Dare we begin a discussion of this in the CT forum?

DR