A unique proposal for The Randi

[Raptor Witness]

Thread moved from the Million Dollar Challenge since there is no serious proposal being put forward for a potential MDC application.I would like to propose a method for determining my ability to foresee events, in the following way:

If I can predict the exact day, Eastern time, that Jeff Randi will die, I get a million dollars awarded to my favorite charity.

This is not meant to be threatening in any manner, but it's probably the easiest way that I can demonstrate what I can do, and satisfy his followers.

Since I would not like to know the exact day that I'm going to die, I would also recommend that the date be kept private, and held in some agreed upon, third party's hand. The death would also have to be either purely accidental or natural in cause.

My abilities are not "publicly" known yet, because if you can really do "publicly" what Mr. Randi is proposing, they threaten to kill you, and "they" don't like to be named. :boxedin:

This is a serious proposal.

[Ravenwood]

You can start by freading the bassic FAQ here:
http://www.randi.org/joom/content/view/47/37/
Then by actually contacting the JREF & formally applying (HINT: Follow the instructions)
I have seen too many posts like yours turn out to be hot air, in fact based on the last part of your post, I'm going to go out on a limb & say yours will be one of those. For a good example of what I mean, search the name DARGO

[Bob Klase]

So are you claiming that the extent of your power is predicting the day that one specific person will die? Seems like a very strange super power. Or could you predict something (or someone) else? I doubt that your claim as stated would be accepted, for a number of reasons. For one, if it is accepted then we'll have a flood of people all trying to make the same claim- won't be long until there's a massive pool of people all predicting the date and one of them will probably be correct.

[quixotecoyote]

This is they.

Please report to the nearest police station and tell them they sent you.

Failure to comply will result in further action.

[Raptor Witness]

I suppose if enough people guessed, someone might get it right. However, as far as I know, I'm the first to seriously make this proposal with reasonable guidelines. The odds would be against, the first.

I have recent credentials in the public domain. For example, when I predict a set of hurricanes, I don't just do so by [name,] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=161995&postcount=5) but what the storms [will do ...] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=161994&postcount=4) If I predict a football game, I don't just give [the winner,] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=183360&postcount=8) but [his score,] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=184684&postcount=10) also. Note how the number 48 repeats.

I don't trust the media, so that makes my application difficult from the get go.

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1221/525684147_1627775bb9.jpg

[Link] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=154875&postcount=2)

[MRC_Hans]

I suggest you choose something less sinister to predict. My suggestion is that you predict the outcome of a series of dice rolls. Either you predict the entire series, and the dice is rolled, or you predict each roll in advance. The JREF will have a requirement for how many rolls, and how many you have to get right. Do apply formally for the prize and negotiate the details with them.

You will have to overcome your dislike for the media and other paranoia. After all, with your power, nobody will be able to hurt you, since you can predict "their" every move in advance.

Good luck, Hans

[rjh01]

How about making predictions that will happen next week? Make some very specific predictions and include the date it will happen and I think we will have to take you seriously.

You see there are heaps of people who come onto this site and say they can do something or other. Every one of them failed to provide any evidence of what they can do.

Putting next weeks winning tatts numbers on this site would make you very popular. Just make sure you specify which ones you are talking about.

[Darat]

Raptor Witness - Who is "Jeff Randi" - a friend of yours?

[MRC_Hans]

Raptor Witness - Who is "Jeff Randi" - a friend of yours?:roll: Yeah, that's the fun part. Can predict the future with the outmost precision, but can't get a name right. :dio:



And they just can't understand why we don't take them too seriously :nope: .

Hans

[The Atheist]

Raptor Witness - Who is "Jeff Randi" - a friend of yours?

Damn, beat me to the punch.

Admin privilege.

Maybe he could tell us when James Wagg will die as well.

[CFLarsen]

I don't trust the media, so that makes my application difficult from the get go.

Trust them...to do what?

[Tbone]

Since this is a serious proposal, you have, of course, read the rules and are preparing or have already prepared a proper application.

Also, as a side note, I very highly doubt Randi would mind publicly displaying your prediction for all the world to see, so you needn't worry about that.


PS - You say you can predict sports (or is that just football?). Why is predicting the date someone is going to die easier to test than say... predicting the scores for an assortment of randomly picked matches over the course of a season? There are plenty of leagues to choose from, even in a single sport. The Pro leagues all the way down to the high school and community league levels.

[Crundy]

I would just suggest that you test yourself first to a third party, either post some predictions here which will happen in the next week (e.g. what will the bonus ball be on the National Lottery, or predict the roll of a die three times in front of a witness). If you can find something you can demonstrate repeatidly in front of others then work with it. I would not submit an application based on the date a person dies on. What if you base your claim on Randi passing away after 2010, when the challenge has ended?

Start with the dice idea.

[Cuddles]

With the standard disclaimer that I don't speak for the challenge or JREF in any way, I can pretty much guarantee that this claim will not be accepted, for the obvious reason that you might try to make it come true.

[Ravenwood]

Here is the whole thread that RW references in his post.
http://forums.armageddononline.org/2007_hurricane_season-t10767.html
It's another Troll (BTW, RW, We ban people for sock puppets here also...)

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Mr Witness,

In your profile on the website you reference you claim that your religion is Chrsitianity. How do you reconcile your divinations against the clear statements in both the Old and New Testaments that this is a sin against God?

[Czarcasm]

I have a counter-proposal for the MDC.
I have the paranormal ability to thwart Raptor Witness's ability to predict Mr. Randi's date of death. I am prepared to do this any number of times, with 100% accuracy. If I win the MDC, I will donate my winnings to JREF, minus $23 for a bottle of Tullamore Dew.

[RemieV]

The Challenge rules will not be bent for any applicant.

We will not accept the prediction of Randi's death date as a claim.

[Czarcasm]

The Challenge rules will not be bent for any applicant.

We will not accept the prediction of Randi's death date as a claim.In that case, I will change my claim: I have the ability to nullify the psychic abilities of those who apply and test for the MDC. My abilities are so powerful that I have no need to travel to the actual location of the test-indeed, with proper preparation, I can actually nullify paranormal abilities of those being tested while eating, or even sleeping.

[JWideman]

In that case, I will change my claim: I have the ability to nullify the psychic abilities of those who apply and test for the MDC. My abilities are so powerful that I have no need to travel to the actual location of the test-indeed, with proper preparation, I can actually nullify paranormal abilities of those being tested while eating, or even sleeping.

But psychics claim all us skeptics have that power.

[Jeff Wagg]

There is a time honored way to predict someone's death, and it's usually followed by a life sentence. Or another similar prediction.

[Czarcasm]

But psychics claim all us skeptics have that power.Then I propose a class-action application for the MDC.
There still might be enough of my share of the million dollars to get that bottle of Tullamore Dew.

[Loss Leader]

As a trusts and estates lawyer, I frequently start out seminars by telling the people there, "I am not psychic but I can guarantee this: you are going to die." I get some pretty shocked looks to which I always reply, "You didn't know?"

[rjh01]

Then I propose a class-action application for the MDC.
There still might be enough of my share of the million dollars to get that bottle of Tullamore Dew.


We are even more powerful than that. We can stop most of them even making a testable claim.

The $1m prize should be awarded to everyone who has made at least one post in this forum, in the month up to the final test. That should be about $500 each. :D

[Raptor Witness]

I suggest you choose something less sinister to predict. My suggestion is that you predict the outcome of a series of dice rolls. Either you predict the entire series, and the dice is rolled, or you predict each roll in advance. The JREF will have a requirement for how many rolls, and how many you have to get right. Do apply formally for the prize and negotiate the details with them.

You will have to overcome your dislike for the media and other paranoia. After all, with your power, nobody will be able to hurt you, since you can predict "their" every move in advance.

Good luck, Hans
I'm glad that someone has a sense of humor here, but my paranoia is justified, for reasons that go way beyond a couple of hurricanes and a handful of football games. For example, the [link] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=154875&postcount=2) above, found below the curious picture, that formed the underlying basis of why I used the number 48 successfully to begin with, contains a curious statement.

"From sea to shining sea, shall this plague be."

[Jun 1st, 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=147498&postcount=75)

Couple that statement with my prolific arguments going back twenty five years, that the age of manned flight is a key turning point in the prophetic time line, and you can see why the rare crash of a [blue angel] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/blue_angel_crashes-t10467.html?t=10467&highlight=Blue+Angel) only three weeks later, during that [exact line] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=188156&postcount=26) of the air show music program, could raise some eyebrows.
Not that I have anything against the U.S. military.

As for the "dice" test, that's a little boring for me. However, if you study the odds of everything I accurately predicted last year, it's the equivalent of seeing a pair of die, stand on their corners.

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2347/1776124538_ecdafca865_o.jpghttp://farm3.static.flickr.com/2347/1776124538_ecdafca865_o.jpg

[JoeTheJuggler]

I predict James Randi will outlive the Million Dollar Challenge.

[Raptor Witness]

Raptor Witness - Who is "Jeff Randi" - a friend of yours?
My bad, I meant James.

With the standard disclaimer that I don't speak for the challenge or JREF in any way, I can pretty much guarantee that this claim will not be accepted, for the obvious reason that you might try to make it come true.
That's why I said, "purely accidental or natural."

Mr Witness,

In your profile on the website you reference you claim that your religion is Chrsitianity. How do you reconcile your divinations against the clear statements in both the Old and New Testaments that this is a sin against God?
The underlying goal of my work is repentance. The gifts of the Holy Spirit, or the Great Spirit, are not evil. However, your belief is what got most of the gifted murdered, and caused Jesus to comment, that "a prophet has no honor in his own country." I also don't profit from what I do.

[m_huber]

I'm glad that someone has a sense of humor here, but my paranoia is justified, for reasons that go way beyond a couple of hurricanes and a handful of football games. For example, the [link] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=154875&postcount=2) above, found below the curious picture, that formed the underlying basis of why I used the number 48 successfully to begin with, contains a curious statement.

"From sea to shining sea, shall this plague be."

[Jun 1st, 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=147498&postcount=75)

Couple that statement with my prolific arguments going back twenty five years, that the age of manned flight is a key turning point in the prophetic time line, and you can see why the rare crash of a [blue angel] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/blue_angel_crashes-t10467.html?t=10467&highlight=Blue+Angel) only three weeks later, during that [exact line] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=188156&postcount=26) of the air show music program, could raise some eyebrows.
Not that I have anything against the U.S. military.


Am I to understand that your prediction From sun up till dawn down, make the wise rise from their seats and the low whisper, "the wind cannot be made to stand still." A great plague of unimaginable proportions is decreed for [the false kingdom of god.] Let nothing standing, stand still, and let nothing lying down be able to stand up. From sea to shining sea and everything in between, shall this plague be. should be taken to mean that a plane will crash? This reads more to me like it is predicting a plague, not a plane crash. Do you have any predictions that say something to the effect of "A plane is going to crash next week?"

[Ron_Tomkins]

As for the "dice" test, that's a little boring for me. However, if you study the odds of everything I accurately predicted last year, it's the equivalent of seeing a pair of die, stand on their corners.



No, I'm not sure if you get it: It would mean A LOT if you could provide some evidence so we could take you seriously... any evidence at all. We have no evidence of you predicting anything last year, so saying all that stuff is wasting your own time. It doesn't mean anything to us without proof. Present evidence and you will be ellegible for the test. You can film yourself with a pair of dice and making several predictions. Given that the predictions are accurate, you will then proceed to post it here.

Be smart. Don't be just another troll.

[cresur]

Hello Mr. Raptor.

If I predict a football game, I don't just give [the winner,] but [his score,] also.

I know you get this all the time (believe me, I KNOW), but can you predict some lotto numbers for me? All 6 of them, for a specific draw? I really need the money, and I guess I'd be glad to share the prize with you, if you'd like it (even though apparently real psychics have no financial ambitions whatsoever).

This is a serious proposal (honest).

By the way, it could help you winning the MDC how about that.

[Raptor Witness]

Am I to understand that your prediction should be taken to mean that a plane will crash? This reads more to me like it is predicting a plague, not a plane crash. Do you have any predictions that say something to the effect of "A plane is going to crash next week?"
I was just giving this as an example of why predicting things, can be a problem sometimes. I didn't predict that a plane would go down. I predicted that manifest destiny, as applied to outer space, would lead to calamity. I apologize that I can't post the entire background of my work here, but the theme of manifest destiny as it applies to the [new U.S. space policy,] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/do_you_feel-t9247.html?t=9247&highlight=space+policy) is a general theme of mine. It's an established argument, which was sadly underlined by this tragedy, I believe. Understanding some of what I do, requires a little background. It's not a random prediction, in most cases. It has a specific purpose to teach, or make a point.

In this case, the curious odds made the point, for me.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/90/BAHR9.jpg

[Blue Angels Delta Formation] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:BAHR9.jpg)

[rjh01]

Or how about next week's football results?

Just post them in this thread. Then when they turn out right we will take you very seriously.

[Capt.Nemo]

While predicting dice rolls may be boring to you, RW, it would make a lot of people sit up and take notice. I doubt the resulting attention would be boring. Not only would you be able to make a change by donating such parts of the prize that you deem right to any worthy cause of your choice, you would also find yourself in possession of a rapt audience and a good platform from which to convey your message to masses of influential people.
Would not that end justify the rather trivial means?

[Wolfman]

RW,

A prediction about James Randi's death will not be accepted, as it could provide motivation for some individual (not necessarily yourself) to make the prediction come true by causing his death (but staging it to look natural, if needs be). Forget that one.

And pointing to past predictions -- particularly predictions that are far from obvious, and require your own "interpretation" to make sense -- also will not work. Forget that one.

A very reasonable means has been presented to you.

You claim the ability to predict football scores. So, go with that. Make a list of, say, 30 or 40 predictions about the scores of upcoming football games. Make them very specific predictions (you have already stated that you can predict the actual score), and put them in a sealed envelope, to be held by a neutral third party that is agreed upon by both you and the JREF (for even greater security, place identical predictions with several different people).

After those games are played, have the envelope(s) opened, with both you and a representative of the JREF present. If your predictions match reality, I'm certain that the JREF would consider that more than adequate justification for more serious testing for the One Million Dollar Challenge.

If, on the other hand, it turns out that your predictions are no more accurate than anyone else would get simply by guessing, then you'd be revealed as a charlatan and a fraud.

To make it more interesting, perhaps we could have several sports bettors who are familiar with the teams in question also make a list of predicted scores for the same games...and see if their predictions, based on no psychic ability whatsoever, are less, equally, or more accurate than your own predictions.

And skip the "its boring" stuff. What a lame excuse. Predicting the date of James Randi's death, and then waiting possibly years for it to actually happen, all the while doing absolutely nothing, is far, far, far more boring than this exercise (especially if it is set up as a competition with non-psychic sports bettors, to see who is more accurate -- the 'scientific bettor', or the 'psychic bettor').

If you can do it, then do it.

If you can't, then shut up.

[m_huber]

Or how about next week's football results?

Just post them in this thread. Then when they turn out right we will take you very seriously.

I can do that for you:

Team not playing: 0
Other team not playing: 0

I bet I'm right.

(The pro bowl was last week)

[m_huber]

I was just giving this as an example of why predicting things, can be a problem sometimes. I didn't predict that a plane would go down. I predicted that manifest destiny, as applied to outer space, would lead to calamity. I apologize that I can't post the entire background of my work here, but the theme of manifest destiny as it applies to the [new U.S. space policy,] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/do_you_feel-t9247.html?t=9247&highlight=space+policy) is a general theme of mine. It's an established argument, which was sadly underlined by this tragedy, I believe. Understanding some of what I do, requires a little background. It's not a random prediction, in most cases. It has a specific purpose to teach, or make a point.


Manifest destiny.. applied to outer space.. lead to calamity.

Ok, let me try:
"The explorers will have problems."
"The team in charge of dynamite will have a casualty."
"There is going to be a major car accident."
"The peace will not last."

Perhaps it is a misunderstanding on my part, but what do the Blue Angels have to do with outer space? They are a very impressive flight team, but they stay terrestrial.

[The Atheist]

Or how about next week's football results?

Just post them in this thread. Then when they turn out right we will take you very seriously.

I'll go one better.

If you can predict the scores of all the Super 14 games (http://www.planetrugby.com/Story_Listing/0,18261,3824,00.html)this weekend, I'll give you $1,000,000 (NZ dollars, about $750k US dollars) first thing Monday morning.

[themyst]

As for the "dice" test, that's a little boring for me.

Too boring to win $1million?

[Wolfman]

Too boring to win $1million?And, apparently, more boring than writing a date on a piece of paper then waiting years to see if it is right.

[CyberCecil]

To make it more interesting, perhaps we could have several sports bettors who are familiar with the teams in question also make a list of predicted scores for the same games...and see if their predictions, based on no psychic ability whatsoever, are less, equally, or more accurate than your own predictions.

This I would love to see, but it will never happen. It would require no interpretation after the fact, no vague and irrelevant phrasing bent so as to reveal the hidden truths and no backtracking to avoid the harsh reality that he can't do what he claims.

[themyst]

This I would love to see, but it will never happen. It would require no interpretation after the fact, no vague and irrelevant phrasing bent so as to reveal the hidden truths and no backtracking to avoid the harsh reality that he can't do what he claims.

... and it may be too boring for him.

[Loss Leader]

In this case, the curious odds made the point, for me.


RW, can you please calculate the "curious odds" that you speak of?

The odds of something happening somewhere at some time are 1:1. You did not say that a Blue Angel jet would crash three weeks after your prediction. You said, basically, that there would be a continent-wide plague. Since you didn't predict the event, what exact odds are you talking about?

[Crundy]

It's very simple, just make up a load of nonsensicle bollocks, and then weeks later when something happens relate it to the vague rubbish you came up with.

For example, I predict that in the next week a great entity will be toppled by forces unknown.

So next week when one of the following happens, I can claim to be psychic:

1) Someone famous dies in unusual circumstances
2) A building is bombed or collapses
3) A world leader steps down
4) I fall over my wife's shoes in the bedroom again

Whatever, I'll find something to relate it to. If I make five of these vague predicions then one is bound to be workable, and one out of five seems acceptable accuracy for most psychics.

What would be impressive is if the OP could do something "boring", like predict the roll of a die 6 times in a row, out of 6 tries.

[Raptor Witness]

RW, can you please calculate the "curious odds" that you speak of?

The odds of something happening somewhere at some time are 1:1. You did not say that a Blue Angel jet would crash three weeks after your prediction. You said, basically, that there would be a continent-wide plague. Since you didn't predict the event, what exact odds are you talking about?
Your interpretation of the warning is without foundation, because you haven't read what led up to it, or why I would say such a thing. Manifest destiny is the core theme, and to ignore this, is to miss the point.

It would really take awhile to lay out the entire case, so why not focus on the easier examples that I provided in [Post #5.] (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3426446&postcount=5) I have done some statistical work on these, but you sound anxious to provide us with your analysis of the odds, so please tell me what you think they are. Don't forget, the number 48 repeats for a good reason. ;)

[Raptor Witness]

RW, can you please calculate the "curious odds" that you speak of?

The odds of something happening somewhere at some time are 1:1. You did not say that a Blue Angel jet would crash three weeks after your prediction. You said, basically, that there would be a continent-wide plague. Since you didn't predict the event, what exact odds are you talking about?
Your interpretation of the warning is without foundation, because you haven't read what led up to it, or why I would say such a thing. Manifest destiny is the core theme, and to ignore this, is to miss the point.

It would really take awhile to lay out the entire case, so why not focus on the easier examples that I provided in [Post #5.] (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3426446&postcount=5) I have done some statistical work on these, but you sound anxious to provide us with your analysis of the odds, so please tell me what you think they are. Don't forget, the number 48 repeats for [good reason.] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/sports_predictions_2007-t12908.html) ;)

"If prophesying the weather doesn't interest you, then maybe football will."

[Moochie]

Mr. Witness, if you have a paranormal ability, then demonstrate it. That is all that is required. We neither want nor need all the philosophical/religious nonsense you seem particularly keen to share with us.

Just show us, simply, what you can do.

Thanks.

M.

[Czarcasm]

Just.
Fill.
Out.
The.
Application.

[vexed]

My abilities are not "publicly" known yet, because if you can really do "publicly" what Mr. Randi is proposing, they threaten to kill you, and "they" don't like to be named. :boxedin:



Oh, of couse :rolleyes:

[Raptor Witness]

As a trusts and estates lawyer, I frequently start out seminars by telling the people there, "I am not psychic but I can guarantee this: you are going to die." I get some pretty shocked looks to which I always reply, "You didn't know?":shocked:

While predicting dice rolls may be boring to you, RW, it would make a lot of people sit up and take notice. I doubt the resulting attention would be boring. Not only would you be able to make a change by donating such parts of the prize that you deem right to any worthy cause of your choice, you would also find yourself in possession of a rapt audience and a good platform from which to convey your message to masses of influential people.
Would not that end justify the rather trivial means?
I agree with your basic argument, but I don't see much difference in calling hurricanes and football games and dice, from a statistical standpoint. It should be the odds that matter, not the method for obtaining them.

What I can do, to establish a better and more observable track record is to begin copying my predictions on this forum in a specific thread. I don't make predictions to show off per se, but rather, when I feel when the time is right. For example, I could have chosen any number of the college bowl games to forecast, and there were [33,] (http://cfn.scout.com/2/557866.html) but I picked only one, and it just happened to be the one that contained a [manifest destiny] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=185042&postcount=11) theme, although I wasn't conscious aware of this at the time that I made the prediction. A ["sooner"] (http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/sooner) is ... a person who settles on government land before it is legally opened to settlers in order to gain the choice of location.

I guess what I'm saying is, I have to do what I'm led to do, and then you guys can calculate the odds.
I'll never be led to throw dice and guess the outcome.

[Loss Leader]

I have done some statistical work on these, but you sound anxious to provide us with your analysis of the odds, so please tell me what you think they are.



I note that you refused to answer my question. I asked you what you thought the odds of the Blue Angels crash were. I've already told you what I thought the odds were: one to one.

If you have the ability to make predictions, fill out the application and do so.

[Ron_Tomkins]

:shocked:


I agree with your basic argument, but I don't see much difference in calling hurricanes and football games and dice, from a statistical standpoint. It should be the odds that matter, not the method for obtaining them.


Since you clearly can't see the big picture (if it is you're not just pretending), I'll draw it for you:

We have no evidence of your such claimed hurricane and ball games predictions. Just because you're saying it, it doesn't mean anything to us. I for example predicted the 9/11 attacks. See? No way to prove that just because I said so.

If you film yourself and make some good dice roll predictions and then post it here, all of us would have clear evidence of what you can do.

Two pages and still no evidence of anything, other than gibberish. I'll be reminding you as the numbers go up.

[Gravy]

I guess what I'm saying is, I have to do what I'm led to do, and then you guys can calculate the odds.
Why are you posting here?

[Cuddles]

I agree with your basic argument, but I don't see much difference in calling hurricanes and football games and dice, from a statistical standpoint. It should be the odds that matter, not the method for obtaining them.

It is both. The odds are obviously important, but the method is just as important. The problem with some methods is that we can't actually get odds from them at all. For example, hurricanes. Predicting the weather is much better than it used to be, but it's still nowhere near accurate enough to put solid odds on a challenge. Football is easier, but it is still not possible to know the exact odds of a certain result, and so that is not really suitable either. Dice are great. We know exactly what the odds are of any throw.

In addition, there is the ease of testing. There are only a few hurricanes every year. Since you'll need to do whatever it is you do more than once, you're likely looking at at least a couple of years for a test to finish. Again, football is easier, but it's still not under your control and, like lottery predictions, will take weeks or months for a test. And again, dice are great. A test would take maybe an hour at most, and you can do it whenever and wherever you like, as many times as you like.

Assuming you can actually predict the future, what is so special about hurricanes and football games? The only difference between them and dice is that they are much more difficult to test. This is a common theme with people claiming powers, they often look for more complex tests because when they try the simlpe ones, they fail. The reason for this is simply that the simple tests are easy to run and so don't tend to fall foul of experimental error and bias as much. If you are being honest about wanting a test, can you come up with a good reason why dice are not acceptable, or are you just going the usual route of refusing to take a test that would actually be objective?

[wahrheit]

It must have been people like ["Raptor Witness"] (http://forums.randi.org/z/index.php?z-profile=Raptor-Witness) who made the ["JREF"] (http://randi.org/) decide to end the challenge in two years.

[Crundy]

Assuming you can actually predict the future, what is so special about hurricanes and football games? The only difference between them and dice is that they are much more difficult to test. This is a common theme with people claiming powers, they often look for more complex tests because when they try the simlpe ones, they fail. The reason for this is simply that the simple tests are easy to run and so don't tend to fall foul of experimental error and bias as much. If you are being honest about wanting a test, can you come up with a good reason why dice are not acceptable, or are you just going the usual route of refusing to take a test that would actually be objective?
Agreed. Claiming that dice rolls are too boring, when it would in fact be the most intruiging, and not answering simple questions without a barrage of total nonsense leads me to the conclusion RW is just another timewaster.

It must have been people like ["Raptor Witness"] who made the ["JREF"] decide to end the challenge in two years.
I think I'd get fed up with listening to this crap day in day out too.

[Jackalgirl]

RW, welcome to the Forum!

I want to chime in, really just to repeat something everyone else has said:

Your demonstration can't require judgement or interpretation.

Prophesies are BAD CHOICES for the MDC unless you're incredibly specific. A short line of verse with a vague statement in it won't cut it. It has to be something like "At 11:20 am Eastern Standard Time, there will be an earthquake in Boston, MA that registers 6.7 on the Richter scale."

Open-ended prophesies don't cut it. 'Cause if there's no "deadline", so to speak, then the claim is not falsifiable -- you could simply claim that the event you predicted hasn't happened yet.

A review:

o Prophesies can't be subject to interpretation. They have to be cut and dry, yes and no, it happened or it didn't happen
o Prophesies must have an end-date.
o Prophesies must be specific (to satisfy the requirement for /no interpretation needed/).

Do you understand?

[DrMatt]

Here we go again.

[Loss Leader]

It has to be something like "At 11:20 am Eastern Standard Time, there will be an earthquake in Boston, MA that registers 6.7 on the Richter scale."


11:20, Boston, 6.7. I imagine it would be sufficient to just correctly predict two out of those three.


Hence, my latest prediction: At some point tomorrow morning, it will be 11:20 a.m. in Boston.

[rjh01]

Hay. That is a game that two can play.

At 11:20 am Eastern Standard Time (give or take 120 hours), there will be an earthquake that registers 6.7 on the Richter scale

[Raptor Witness]

RW, welcome to the Forum!

I want to chime in, really just to repeat something everyone else has said:

Your demonstration can't require judgement or interpretation.

Prophesies are BAD CHOICES for the MDC unless you're incredibly specific. A short line of verse with a vague statement in it won't cut it. It has to be something like "At 11:20 am Eastern Standard Time, there will be an earthquake in Boston, MA that registers 6.7 on the Richter scale."

Open-ended prophesies don't cut it. 'Cause if there's no "deadline", so to speak, then the claim is not falsifiable -- you could simply claim that the event you predicted hasn't happened yet.

A review:

o Prophesies can't be subject to interpretation. They have to be cut and dry, yes and no, it happened or it didn't happen
o Prophesies must have an end-date.
o Prophesies must be specific (to satisfy the requirement for /no interpretation needed/).

Do you understand?
In [post #5,] (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3426446&postcount=5) I demonstrated that I could pick two hurricanes, and correctly select the lowest pressure in a region and greatest damage in a geographical area. That's a lot better than Dr. Gray of Colorado State University, who makes the news every time he spits out his broad assertions. Then, after carefully explaining why I picked the numbers 4 and 8 to begin with, and afterwards complaining that no one was paying me any attention, I switched to sports, specifically football. Out of 33 bowl games, I just happened to select the winner and winning score of the Fiesta Bowl, which turned out to be 48.

You know what I think? I think that anything less than the plagues of Egypt, would fall of deaf ears here. Then after the death of the first born, you would still ride out into the desert and drown.

I'm not here to juggle for you, or pull rabbits out of hats. I'm here to win. Not for the money, but because I [can.] (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHpnMLjDXY0)

[Czarcasm]

In [post #5,] (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3426446&postcount=5) I demonstrated that I could pick two hurricanes, and correctly select the lowest pressure in a region and greatest damage in a geographical area. That's a lot better than Dr. Gray of Colorado State University, who makes the news every time he spits out his broad assertions. Then, after carefully explaining why I picked the numbers 4 and 8 to begin with, and afterwards complaining that no one was paying me any attention, I switched to sports, specifically football. Out of 33 bowl games, I just happened to select the winner and winning score of the Fiesta Bowl, which turned out to be 48.

You know what I think? I think that anything less than the plagues of Egypt, would fall of deaf ears here. Then after the death of the first born, you would still ride out into the desert and drown.

I'm not here to juggle for you, or pull rabbits out of hats. I'm here to win. Not for the money, but because I can.We have no interest in your unverified claims about what you did, because anyone can claim the same thing-for example, yesterday I predicted that you would say exactly what you said in your last post. My evidence is the prediction you see before you and the words of your last post. See how useless that was? The question is, can you make a prediction that has yet to come true? Are you willing to fill out the application?

[fromdownunder]

I'm not here to juggle for you, or pull rabbits out of hats. I'm here to win. Not for the money, but because I [can.] (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CHpnMLjDXY0)

Nobody wants you to juggle. Just predict something that will happen, say, next Monday (Oh, pick your own date next week) that cannot be known in advance. It's pretty simple really. Cut to the chase, and actually, you know, instead of talking about it, actually do it. Post-dictions do not count. If you are unwilling to do this, you are nothing but pointless hot air, and I suspect just full of it.

Norm

[Crundy]

Tell you what, here's an easy one: Predict what the bonus ball will be on the UK National Lottery this Saturday (16th Feb 2008). The numbers run from 1-49, so a 1 in 49 chance is good enough to get us at least to start taking you seriously. The bonus ball means nothing to sway the odds, so it's not like us asking for the winning numbers.

Go ahead, pick a number BEFORE 7pm on Saturday and post it here, and do not edit your post. I'm guessing you want to go for 48?

[CrikeyBobs]

However, if you study the odds of everything I accurately predicted last year, it's the equivalent of seeing a pair of die, stand on their corners.


I can make 14 million predictions for the next UK Lottery draw. And if you study the odds of everything I accurately predicted... :cool:

[m_huber]

Prophesies are BAD CHOICES for the MDC unless you're incredibly specific. A short line of verse with a vague statement in it won't cut it. It has to be something like "At 11:20 am Eastern Standard Time, there will be an earthquake in Boston, MA that registers 6.7 on the Richter scale."


As a geologist, I can say with confidence that there will not be an earthquake in Boston within the next week, on any day, that registers anywhere near 6.7.

However, I can make this prediction: In the next 100 million years (http://www.scotese.com/future1.htm), there will be a major earthquake in what we now call Boston. And when it happens, I want my million!

[Jackalgirl]

I'm not here to juggle for you, or pull rabbits out of hats. I'm here to win. Not for the money, but because I can.

I'm not asking you to juggle or pull rabbits out of hats. I'm simply explaining to you what it will take to do a proper demonstration. You cannot claim the MDC based on past predictions. As others have pointed out, you will have to predict a future event, and the prediction will have to be precise enough to preclude the need for judgement, and should be something that can't reasonably be guessed using available information.

I don't speak for JREF, but I know that they encourage people to test out their abilities before applying. If you are willing to do that here, what's your prediction?

I think that predicting the outcome of a lottery draw would be a very good demonstration, for what it's worth, and I highly recommend it.

Here's another option. Do your stuff to determine the outcome of 10 rolls of two 10-sided dice (that is, 10 rolls of a number between 00 and 99). Create a hash of this and send it to a trusted third person, say a member of this Forum. I will then do my ten dice rolls and post the hash of my results. The third person and you will post your hash and we'll see if they match each other and mine (meaning you got all 10 right). If they don't, we'll post the original data and compare and see how many, if any, you matched from the list.

What kind of accuracy would you claim for this kind of a test, if you're willing to do it? How many out of 10? (Also, I'd stipulate that you'd have to get each number completely right in order for it to count. For example, if I roll "48" you'd have to provide "48" in your list of predictions, not "84"). Would you agree to this? It sure would go a long way towards demonstrating to the skeptics here that you've got something going on, and I'd be very happy to help.

[Unalienable]

The criteria for passing just the preliminary test is to perform a feat that would not happen by coincident 1 time in 10,000.

10,000 / 365 = 27.4 years.

Not to be morbid, but I think it's a safe guess that Mr. Randi will pass away within the next 27.4 years.

[MG1962]

Mr. Witness, if you have a paranormal ability, then demonstrate it. That is all that is required. We neither want nor need all the philosophical/religious nonsense you seem particularly keen to share with us.

Just show us, simply, what you can do.

Thanks.

M.

Actually I think he already is

[Moochie]

Actually I think he already is


Yeah, I think his real ambition is to be an Internet "personality."

Groovy, bay-bee :D


M.

[fuelair]

I have a counter-proposal for the MDC.
I have the paranormal ability to thwart Raptor Witness's ability to predict Mr. Randi's date of death. I am prepared to do this any number of times, with 100% accuracy. If I win the MDC, I will donate my winnings to JREF, minus $23 for a bottle of Tullamore Dew.Thus showing your good taste!!:)

[Raptor Witness]

Actually I think he already is

["Dusk to dawn ..."] (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIQmpcdicGo)

[Link] (http://www.tribulation.com/drgchain.htm)

[Hokulele]

Amazing, that was even less comprehensible than your other posts.

[William Smith]

...
I'm not here to juggle for you, or pull rabbits out of hats. I'm here to win.
...

What exactly do you claim then and how will you prove your claim?

(I'm aware this has been asked before.)

[wahrheit]

Amazing, that was even less comprehensible than your other posts.

I would call it picture spamming.

[Czarcasm]

If there is no actual claim to be made, and he doesn't show interest in applying for the MDC, shouldn't this thread be moved to a more appropriate forum?

[Crundy]

[Edited]
I note you didn't attempt to guess the simple bonus ball challenge. The actual ball drawn was 22: http://www.national-lottery.co.uk/player/p/results/results.do

I'm guessing all your stupid pictures you posted today predicted this?

Please attack the argument. I took out the personal insult.

[David Wong]

Is it an insult to suggest that this person appears to have a mental illness?

Because I don't intend it that way, I do believe that there is a short circuit in his brain that makes him think he successfully prophesized these events and I do not believe he is a fraud out for financial gain. I think it is a medical problem that is no fault of his own.

[DRBUZZ0]

Thread moved from the Million Dollar Challenge since there is no serious proposal being put forward for a potential MDC application.I would like to propose a method for determining my ability to foresee events, in the following way:

If I can predict the exact day, Eastern time, that Jeff Randi will die, I get a million dollars awarded to my favorite charity.

This is not meant to be threatening in any manner, but it's probably the easiest way that I can demonstrate what I can do, and satisfy his followers.

Since I would not like to know the exact day that I'm going to die, I would also recommend that the date be kept private, and held in some agreed upon, third party's hand. The death would also have to be either purely accidental or natural in cause.

My abilities are not "publicly" known yet, because if you can really do "publicly" what Mr. Randi is proposing, they threaten to kill you, and "they" don't like to be named. :boxedin:

This is a serious proposal.

I find your proposal to be both morbit and offensive. I personally hope that Mr. Randi will be with us for some time more. Yes, I know he is an older man and I know nothing of his health other than his heart issues a couple years ago. A person with a bypass who recovers has a very good prognosis and there's no reason to think Mr. Randi won't be with us for another ten years or more. Those who make it to age 80 in the US and in otherwise good health have a good probability of living to 90, 95 or better.

This "they" bull is just that. It's bull.

The only way you could know when someone would die would be to kill them yourself, as mentioned.


That having been said, if you *could* foresee Mr. Randi's death or predict when it would happen then I would say it is morally and ethically incumbent on you to tell him when and the manner of death so that it could therefore be avoided.

Nearly all causes of death could be averted or reduced with enough knowledge before hand. If you could predict Randi's death in a car accident or some other event, then telling him would be easily able to stop that. If you foresee Randi's death by cancer then predicting it would mean he could have the tumor zapped when it's still tiny and has not spread. If you predict a heart attack then he could be be prepared for it with medics, a defibrillator and cardiac drugs ready. If he is to die of a stroke, then he could have a stent put in the artery that would cause it or have other preventative actions taken.


Therefore, it is entirely incombant on any who could predict such a thing to warn the person of it such that it could be avoided. Very few causes of death cannot be avoided, or at the least, have their chances reduced if there is information sufficiently ahead of time.


How about this:

if you can predict when people will die so well, just give us a few celebrities who will die this year and give the exact date and time?

[Olowkow]

My abilities are not "publicly" known yet


I have recent credentials in the public domain.

Hmm, I'll flip a coin, I guess.

[chillzero]

I find your proposal to be both morbit and offensive.

<snip>

if you can predict when people will die so well, just give us a few celebrities who will die this year and give the exact date and time?

How is that any less morbid or offensive?

[Crundy]

By the way, I actually predicted [9/11] (although I forgot to tell anyone at the time). Here is the overwhelming evidence:
http://www.cryptpad.com/tornado.jpg
http://www.cryptpad.com/saville.jpg
http://www.cryptpad.com/hasselhoff.jpg

See? Can I have my million dollars now please?

Do not post copyright works.

[kosai]

Raptor Witness: Why not try something a lot simpler, verifiable, and just as unlikely. If you do well here, we can take you seriously. Thanks!

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=106705

[DRBUZZ0]

How is that any less morbid or offensive?

because I chances are I don't give a rats ass about the celebs whose numbers are up this year...

Unless maybe they're a legendary classic rocker. Or someone who has contributed to skepticism or perhaps a famous scientist.

Otherwise it's not really offensive as far as I am concerned.

[rjh01]

Also James Randi's death is likely to be in the far future. This is personal. Reports about celebs is a huge industry. This is not personal.

[Ron_Tomkins]

By the way, I actually predicted [9/11] (although I forgot to tell anyone at the time). Here is the overwhelming evidence:
http://www.cryptpad.com/tornado.jpg
http://www.cryptpad.com/saville.jpg
http://www.cryptpad.com/hasselhoff.jpg

See? Can I have my million dollars now please?



:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D
Nominated!!!!!!

[chillzero]

because I chances are I don't give a rats ass about the celebs whose numbers are up this year...

Unless maybe they're a legendary classic rocker. Or someone who has contributed to skepticism or perhaps a famous scientist.

Otherwise it's not really offensive as far as I am concerned.

ah, so somebody's life only matters if you consider them worthy?

[OnlyTellsTruths]

Aside from the claimants supposed abilities being obviously impossible, what is with the red/green coloring and the number 48 "repeating" (let me guess, it repeats at least 1 out of 100 times you see a number)....

Are these not signs of delusion?

[DRBUZZ0]

ah, so somebody's life only matters if you consider them worthy?

Absolutely. Which is why you should stay on my good side. I'm the authority on what matters.

I appointed myself. Because I said so.

(Question the logic all you want but movements followed by millions or billions have been founded on equally valid claims)

[rjh01]

At least chillzero, Drbuzzo and I see eye to eye on something.

[Empress]

Dear Mr Witness,

I believe you are having us on.

Cordially yours,
Empress of Blandings Castle

[chillzero]

At least chillzero, Drbuzzo and I see eye to eye on something.

Do we? What, exactly?

I agree completely with DrBuzz0 that the OP is in poor taste, is morbid and offensive. However, I don't agree that doing the same proposal with other people is any less so.

I think some better test examples have been put forward, and would be more interested in the OP pursuing some of those suggestions instead.

[Raptor Witness]

I made a serious proposal here, and my claims are valid. Please feel free to calculate the odds, because they already exceed any test that has been suggested here. I also invite you to contact the [web master] (http://www.armageddononline.org/Contact-Us/Matt-Andersen-MetalMilitia.html) at the site referenced below, as I have no moderating rights, and even if I did everything is time stamped.

It's real easy for people without paranormal ability to whine that they don't like the method for obtaining the odds, but the math doesn't lie. It seems to me that "critical thinking" here, has become little more that jealous criticism.

[2007 Hurricane Season] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/2007_hurricane_season-t10767.html?t=10767&highlight=Hurricane+Predictions)

- [Jul 22nd, 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=161994&postcount=4)

Here's a challenge for all AO watchers and members. Make your hurricane predictions here. There will be two categories for the 2007 season:

1) Strongest Atlantic storm, in terms of the lowest pressure reached

2) Most devastating strike on the U.S. mainland, in terms of dollars

The [list] (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml) is as follows ...

Andrea
Barry
Chantal
#4 Dean
Erin
Felix
Gabrielle
#8 Humberto
Ingrid ...



- [Jul 22nd, 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=161995&postcount=5)

As some of you may remember, "the number four" has been on my mind a lot lately, in terms of prophetic utterances, here and on the Mars Rover Blog [Reply: 11] (http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-24049-scientific-reputations.html) , so if I were a gambling man, I'd have my eye on hurricane "Dean."

Likewise, ["By four ways and in two parts,"] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=153822&postcount=43) might also indicate that the eighth storm could be significant, so I'm also placing a mental wager on #8, "Humberto." That's about all I can say right now. I've never been great with storm names per se, but I'll wade into the water this year.



So I picked the #4 and the #8 eight storm, for reasons that tie into a prior prophecy against NASA. If you'll recall, the shuttle Endeavour had to [return early] (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293671,00.html) due to hurricane #4 Dean. That's a highly unusual and historical fact, and one, which conservatively increases [the odds] (http://prophecies.us/yabb/YaBB.pl?num=1193248507) of my claim by a factor of about fifty, according to former Astronaut (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K_FmMuubWE) Not to mention the fact that when combined with hurricane Felix, the "plague of wind" included the first ever double CAT 5 landfall in world history, and which just happened to look exactly like a set of train tracks running across the Caribbean. Two straight parallel lines running for better than a thousand miles EACH! So the [entire basis(see reply 11)] (http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-24049-scientific-reputations.html) for my picking Dean in the first place, turned into an [amazing first] (http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2167/1803014938_78983da229_o.jpg) in history.

Because my hurricane predictions were being ignored, I switch over to sports, with great success. Out of 33 college football bowl games, I picked only one. Not only was the winner the widely held underdog, but the winner's score happened to match the numbers 4 and 8.



[Sports predictions 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/sports_predictions_2007-t12908.html)

- [Nov 25th, 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/sports_predictions_2007-t12908.html)

This thread will be dedicated to sports predictions for the year 2007.

I decided to do this on the hunch that if I could predict weather catastrophes, then why not sports?
So far I'm [two] (http://prophecies.us/yabb/YaBB.pl?num=1194134668) for [two] (http://prophecies.us/yabb/YaBB.pl?num=1195946961) with football, but I started out on another forum, three weeks ago.

In the future, I'll copy any predictions related to sports here, also. This is a serious matter for some folks, so I can't say that it's just for fun. [B]If prophesying the weather doesn't interest you, then maybe FOOTBALL will. :shy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_GTLteo8Qo
http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2200/2060831761_3f08bac089_o.jpg


- [Dec 11th, 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=183360&postcount=8)

The green means go, and a projected winner, the red means stop, and a projected loser.

I reserve the right to alter this up until the coin toss, but I can't foresee this one changing,
"West Virginia will win."

Fiesta Bowl
Jan. 2 / 8 p.m. Phoenix, Ariz. FOX
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma


- [Dec 29th, 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=184684&postcount=10)

[2008 Fiesta Bowl Coverage] (http://www.msnsportsnet.com/FiestaBowl/page.cfm?story=11872&cat=fiestabowl) - Dec. 12, 2007

This year’s game will be the 4th time West Virginia and Oklahoma have met on the gridiron. The last time came n 1982 in Norman, Okla., when West Virginia pulled off a 41-27 upset in the ’82 season opener. Oklahoma comfortably won the prior two meetings in 1958 and 1978.

Game time is 8 p.m. ET and the contest will be televised nationally on FOX.

For the skeptics, I didn't realize the curious numeric connection until after I made this prediction. It may not mean anything, but it's interesting.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

It almost sounds like I've picked an upset, in terms of probabilities.
[Fox Sports - see videos] (http://msn.foxsports.com/cfb/fiestabowl) The commentator at Fox calls the Sooners the "red storm." Maybe I had better rethink my prediction? :scatter:

[Sooner videos] (http://www.soonersports.com/ot/2007_daily_coverage.html)



Faith can move "mountaineers?" :shy:



Final Score 48 to 28 MOUNTAINEERS

[Jackalgirl]

Again, you've made a post-diction -- that is, an after-the-fact interpretation of your prediction to explain how accurate it was. So I would highly recommend that you stop talking about everything that you've done in the past and start doing a prediction for the future.

Remember, you need to make a prediction that requires no explanation or judgement calls. It needs to be cut and dry. I really wonder if you understand this and its importance. It's vitally essential that you do, or your being here is completely meaningless (and you will get absolutely NOwhere with JREF).

Any thoughts about being able to predict the dice-rolls I mentioned earlier? Can you do that?

[wahrheit]

How come certain people are so obsessed with quoting their own posts instead of replying to posts made by other people?

[DRBUZZ0]

Do we? What, exactly?

I agree completely with DrBuzz0 that the OP is in poor taste, is morbid and offensive. However, I don't agree that doing the same proposal with other people is any less so.

I think some better test examples have been put forward, and would be more interested in the OP pursuing some of those suggestions instead.

Okay fine. How about predicting the exact deaths of people who most of us don't really care for?

Give us the names of some Al Queda supporters, some duely convicted prisoners who have committed multiple violent acts of the most severe magnitude, maybe some Taliban...

Will that be so offensive?

[rjh01]

I do not think it is offensive to predict the death of a any person. What I think is offensive is having nothing to back it up with.

For example predicting that I will die if I jump off a big cliff is not offensive. It is just stating what (to us) is the obvious. Yes, pushing me off that said cliff is more than offensive.

Raptor should first get some credibility with us first. Several suggestions for that have been made above (see post 93 - 95 for example). Once he has done that he can say almost anything. But until then....

So can you do that please?

[Babylon Sister]

So next week when one of the following happens, I can claim to be psychic:

1)
2)
3) A world leader steps down
4)


Give that man a million dollars!

[Crundy]

Damn right, please make the cheque out to Mr Crundy. Thanks.

[rjh01]

Damn right, please make the cheque out to Mr Crundy. Thanks.


Amazing. Do it again! Do it again!

Please.:D

[Crundy]

Amazing. Do it again! Do it again!

Please.:D

Hell no, I'm just going to occasionally quote my post whenever someone claims I'm not psychic, and dodge any suggestion otherwise and any requests for further proof.

Hey raptor, at least I made a specific predicion.

[m_huber]

I made a serious proposal here, and my claims are valid. Please feel free to calculate the odds, because they already exceed any test that has been suggested here. I also invite you to contact the [web master] (http://www.armageddononline.org/Contact-Us/Matt-Andersen-MetalMilitia.html) at the site referenced below, as I have no moderating rights, and even if I did everything is time stamped.

It's real easy for people without paranormal ability to whine that they don't like the method for obtaining the odds, but the math doesn't lie. It seems to me that "critical thinking" here, has become little more that jealous criticism.

[2007 Hurricane Season] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/2007_hurricane_season-t10767.html?t=10767&highlight=Hurricane+Predictions)
So I picked the #4 and the #8 eight storm, for reasons that tie into a prior prophecy against NASA. If you'll recall, the shuttle Endeavour had to [return early] (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293671,00.html) due to hurricane #4 Dean. That's a highly unusual and historical fact, and one, which conservatively increases [the odds] (http://prophecies.us/yabb/YaBB.pl?num=1193248507) of my claim by a factor of about fifty, according to former Astronaut [Buzz Aldrin.] (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0K_FmMuubWE) Not to mention the fact that when combined with hurricane Felix, the "plague of wind" included the first ever double CAT 5 landfall in world history, and which just happened to look exactly like a set of train tracks running across the Caribbean. Two straight parallel lines running for better than a thousand miles EACH! So the [entire basis(see reply 11)] (http://www.marsroverblog.com/discuss-24049-scientific-reputations.html) for my picking Dean in the first place, turned into an [amazing first] (http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2167/1803014938_78983da229_o.jpg) in history.

Because my hurricane predictions were being ignored, I switch over to sports, with great success. Out of 33 college football bowl games, I picked only one. Not only was the winner the widely held underdog, but the winner's score happened to match the numbers 4 and 8.
[Sports predictions 2007] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/sports_predictions_2007-t12908.html)
Final Score 48 to 28 MOUNTAINEERS

I am moderately impressed by your hurricane predictions. You picked 2 hurricanes that eventually made landfall 1 and 2 months before they happened, respectively. That is pretty good, but not unthinkable. The fact that you didn't make predictions about the others takes away from the value of those predictions. How hard is it to say that a hurricane is going to be deadly?

The fact that you did pick two that were deadly gives you room to make another prediction. The thing you need to do to prove your ability is to make a large number of predictions that are as specific as possible. Two predictions don't mean much, particularly when you are talking about objects that are not quantifiable in terms of odds.

On the subject of football, I am not impressed by your prediction. Every year, upsets happen at bowl games; it was not unreasonable to think West Virginia would win, the odds of randomly guessing correctly were 1:2, and besides all that, this year a cat nearly out-picked the experts (http://blogs.trb.com/sports/football/bob_blog/2008/01/catfight_at_espn.html).

The easiest way to unequivocally prove your power would be to do something as boring as picking large numbers of coin tosses or dice throws. Other ideas would also work, but when you are talking about things that are beyond lab scale, predictions can easily be vague and difficult to say with certainty whether or not they came true (and if you are wrong, you can look at another event and say "oh, what I really meant was that Raul Castro would have pasta for dinner").

[Gord_in_Toronto]

How to be a psychic or at least play one on the Internet.
1) Make lots and lots of predictions.
2) Ignore the vast majority in which you were wrong.
3)Trumpet very loudly about the ones in which you were right.

Easy. :D

[Moochie]

After the first attempt on Benazir Bhutto's life, I said to my wife, I said, "Pet," I said "Love," I said "Pet, next time she might not be so lucky." My wife answered, "Oh shush! Andrea's always making baseless accusations."

M.

[Raptor Witness]

I am moderately impressed by your hurricane predictions. You picked 2 hurricanes that eventually made landfall 1 and 2 months before they happened, respectively. That is pretty good, but not unthinkable. The fact that you didn't make predictions about the others takes away from the value of those predictions. How hard is it to say that a hurricane is going to be deadly?

I predicted the lowest pressure in the Atlantic and costliest hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland, last year.
If you're "moderately impressed," then at least get the story right.

I'll tell you what I'm NOT impressed with, and that's this crowd's ability to do simple math while skirting the question of comparative odds. I don't roll dice. I do predict natural disasters and football games. Five in a row, to be exact.

My gift is linked to demonstrating the need for repentance. So my ability is tied to this. I am willing, however, to do the odds calculation for you, which you can pretend are dice.

[Ravenwood]

OK, RW here is a test that will impress me, and it does not involve dice. I will generate a 5 digit random number & PM it to chillzero, a forum moderator. all you need to do is post that number. Fair?

[m_huber]

I predicted the lowest pressure in the Atlantic and costliest hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland, last year.
If you're "moderately impressed," then at least get the story right.

I'll tell you what I'm NOT impressed with, and that's this crowd's ability to do simple math while skirting the question of comparative odds. I don't roll dice. I do predict natural disasters and football games. Five in a row, to be exact.

My gift is linked to demonstrating the need for repentance. So my ability is tied to this. I am willing, however, to do the odds calculation for you, which you can pretend are dice.

And my brother routinely predicts where hurricanes will make landfall with greater accuracy than the weather bureau. It isn't that this is unimpressive, it is more a question of what your ability actually is. Are you psychic, or a good guesser? If you are psychic (in any sense of the term), then you should be able to do dumb, simple crowd pleasing tricks, and honestly, that is all we want to see at this point.

From your linked blog:
As some of you may remember, "the number four" has been on my mind a lot lately, in terms of prophetic utterances, here and on the Mars Rover Blog, so if I were a gambling man, I'd have my eye on hurricane "Dean."

Likewise, ["By four ways and in two parts,"] might also indicate that the eighth storm could be significant, so I'm also placing a mental wager on #8, "Humberto." That's about all I can say right now. I've never been great with storm names per se, but I'll wade into the water this year.

Saying "I'd have my eye on Hurricane Dean" and "I'm also placing a mental wager on #8" are both pretty vague. Now, they both made landfall and caused damage. However, there were 14 named storms last year; 6 of them were hurricanes. You picked 2 of these; The odds of picking 2 correctly are 3/14 or 21.4%. A one-in-five chance isn't great, but that is easier than picking one die throw correctly.

Also, your criteria of picking #8 was actually thrown off, because Tropical Depression Ingrid was actually named 2 days before Humberto, and it did not cause significant damage.
(See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season)

[remirol]

My gift is linked to demonstrating the need for repentance. So my ability is tied to this.

Please elaborate more. You say your ability is tied to this, so to accurately test anything we need to know the following: What exactly _can_ you predict, and how does "the need for repentance" tie into it?

Also, you can count me in among those who are singularly _unimpressed_ with your postdictions; I do not care how many hurricanes, football games, or whatever you claim to have predicted accurately in the past. It is simply not relevant to the question of what you can do _right now_.

I want to know what you are willing to claim you can predict IN THE FUTURE; and once we hash that out, then we can discuss the matter of making an actual prediction. All the rest is just hand-waving and obfuscation.

[Tirdun]

It seems to me that "critical thinking" here, has become little more that jealous criticism

Understand that every month or two someone comes to the forum to tout their particular eccentric superpower. Each is rife with detailed explanations as to why it only works a certain way, how it might work involving every manner of new age or mythic or religious woo and each overflowing with equal parts confidence and refusal to establish a specific protocol (even informally) to show us. From numerology to psychic dice tossing, it's all preceded you.

Time and again they await our awed adulation and shock at their magic. When we make demands or point out flaws they invariably whine about how we don't understand their skill, the math involved or the hyperdimentional whatever that makes it all so incredible and paranormal.

So, I'm sorry to say that your skills, whatever they may be, are tarnished by the hoaxes and delusions of posters past. They have jaded the audience here. Further, many of us have come by whatever path to the conclusion that there are no real paranormal powers out there. This makes us immediately skeptical of new claims, mostly because they smack so clearly of old and debunked claims.

But take heart. The very path of the skeptic gives you an easy tool to simultaneously shut us all up and make us eat crow. Hoist us by our own rules, our own beliefs. All you must do, and this is key, is follow those same scientific rules to show us that you can magic up some foreknowledge of the future in a way that is both statistically significant and very, very difficult to cheat. Clearly you want us to both believe and be impressed by your nebulous talent, so here is the direct path to that end.

The other option is to go win the lottery and soothe your pride with stacks of money.

[Trifikas]

Sorry, It's not as impressive as you think.

If I wanted to nit-pick, according to the national weather service,

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2007atlan.shtml)

Dean was the First hurricane, before that, the others were tropical storms. Strictly speaking, there were only 6 Hurricanes, so Dean wasn't the 4th and the 8th never happened.






But what the heck, in the interest of being fair, we'll throw in tropical storms, since they get named as well.




But now you have another problem.

If you predicted that the hurricane that did the most damage would hit on a specific day and time, more than a month in advance, that might be interesting.

But you said the "Fourth" hurricane would be the lowest pressure. Your odds? According to the national weather service, for the 2007 Hurricane season, there were 15 hurricanes. So your odds were 1 in 15. You did it twice, which I'm sorry doesn't rate more than a raised Eyebrow.

One other thing I have to ask, is can you think of things you've made predictions of that Didn't pan out? In the interest of full scientific disclosure, you should mention those as part of the data, as well.

[Gate2501]

To be honest, I am still confused as to why this guy is so obsessed with the numbers 4 and 8.

[Empress]

To be honest, I am still confused as to why this guy is so obsessed with the numbers 4 and 8.

Ditto. Also, why aren't the 4th and 8th hurricanes the worst every year? As a Floridian, I would be happy to make plans to get out of Dodge every 4th and 8th hurricane each summer. Alas, it doesn't seem to pan out. (Katrina = 11th)

[Agent : Orange]

I'll tell you what I'm NOT impressed with, and that's this crowd's ability to do simple math while skirting the question of comparative odds. I don't roll dice. I do predict natural disasters and football games. Five in a row, to be exact.

My gift is linked to demonstrating the need for repentance.

Using your powers to call the winners of football games demonstrates the need for repentance?

I think you overestimate the significance of pro-sports.

[JoeEllison]

Ditto. Also, why aren't the 4th and 8th hurricanes the worst every year? As a Floridian, I would be happy to make plans to get out of Dodge every 4th and 8th hurricane each summer. Alas, it doesn't seem to pan out. (Katrina = 11th)

Yeah, no kidding... were you around for the 2004 season? Holy crap, we got nailed hard, and often! And, I guess if Katrina was 11th, Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne were 10th, right?

[Blue Mountain]

To be honest, I am still confused as to why this guy is so obsessed with the numbers 4 and 8.
As am I. Everyone knows 42 is much more important! :D

[ben m]

I predicted the lowest pressure in the Atlantic and costliest hurricane to hit the U.S. mainland, last year.
If you're "moderately impressed," then at least get the story right.

No you didn't. You said that you see something about the Hurricane #4 and something about #8. It turned out that 4 (or 5th, depending how you count) was the lowest pressure and 8 was the costliest. You would have been happy to claim victory if 4 (or 5) or 8 had turned out to have the highest wind speeds, longest path, greatest loss of life, or highest energy, or the first landfall, most eyewall replacement cycles, or whatever. (Of course these things are correlated, but not exactly---Felix, Noel, and Karen had higher ACE than Humberto, for example) You would have been happy if it turned out that the 4th or 8th named *hurricane*, ignoring tropical storms, had any interesting properties. You would have been happy if the 4th or 8th *landfall* had topped some list. In other words, you made a vague prediction, then data-mined until you found an excuse for calling it successful.

[William Smith]

...
In other words, you made a vague prediction, then data-mined until you found an excuse for calling it successful.

Bingo.



RW, you could always make a new prediction, couldn't you? One a bit more precise? Or one which provides a large data sample size, e.g. predicting an entire week of football results? Or any large gameday in any sport: Just tell us in advance what you will do.

You could of course simply bet on said games and show us the sizable check while you laugh all the way to the bank.

[Raptor Witness]

And my brother routinely predicts where hurricanes will make landfall with greater accuracy than the weather bureau. It isn't that this is unimpressive, it is more a question of what your ability actually is. Are you psychic, or a good guesser? If you are psychic (in any sense of the term), then you should be able to do dumb, simple crowd pleasing tricks, and honestly, that is all we want to see at this point.

From your linked blog:


Saying "I'd have my eye on Hurricane Dean" and "I'm also placing a mental wager on #8" are both pretty vague. Now, they both made landfall and caused damage. However, there were 14 named storms last year; 6 of them were hurricanes. You picked 2 of these; The odds of picking 2 correctly are 3/14 or 21.4%. A one-in-five chance isn't great, but that is easier than picking one die throw correctly.

Also, your criteria of picking #8 was actually thrown off, because Tropical Depression Ingrid was actually named 2 days before Humberto, and it did not cause significant damage.
(See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season)

Your arguments are noted, but I started ["the contest"] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=161994&postcount=4) by giving [my two picks.] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=161995&postcount=5) I don't think you can just dismiss this. I asked for two hurricanes with two characteristics, and I gave two. "Vague" or not, I nailed it, and you can dismiss the wording I used, but the rules were clearly stated in the post immediately prior. Speaking of words, you seem to over look that Ingrid never became a "hurricane." The contest clearly stated, "Make your hurricane predictions here." This actually increases the odds of the predictions I made, because not only did I specify the characteristics of two storms, but I assumed correctly that the storms would grow to become hurricanes, in order to qualify. You've just added another multiplier to my calculations.
Thank You. :)

Like hurricane Dean, hurricane Humberto was very unique, in that it went on to break an unusual historic record.

["Hurricane Humberto set a record for being the quickest storm to change from tropical depression to Hurricane and make landfall. That all happened in just over 12 hours from the time it formed." Link] (http://www.nasa.gov/lb/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2007/h2007_humberto.html) - 09.14.07 NASA

In other words, this was more than just a good call, like hurricane Dean, my second pick also made unique history.

I realize that there is limited understanding here, generally, for what I can and will do in the future. You can dismiss the method for obtaining the odds, but like Noah building the Ark, my job is to warn. I can only hope that I'm not throwing my pearls before swine, here.

[rjh01]

Just been looking into your predictions Raptor and I am far from impressed. You will have to make some more predictions for me to take you seriously. As we asked you to do that more than 2 weeks ago and you have ignored those requests then I can only assume that you do not have any special abilities.


Please do not feed the trolls.

[m_huber]

Most hurricane seasons have upwards of 10 named storms. Last year, there were 17. Within the first 10 named storms, 3 were hurricanes. In 2006, there were 5 hurricanes of 10 storms. In 2005, 4 of the first 10 were hurricanes. For making a guess about hurricanes, it is reasonable to pick one of the first 10, because there is lower probability that there will be more than 10. In the last three years, 40% of the first 10 storms of the hurricane season have been hurricanes. Guessing two hurricanes out of 10 options (assuming there are 4 hurricanes in 10) has a probability of 13.3%.

As I say, I am somewhat impressed by your predictions. However, the fact that you are giving us predictions about 2 hurricanes and 1 football game gives us little to go on. Are these the only predictions you have ever made? If not, then what were the results of other predictions? What is your accuracy level?

The point is, if I play the odds long enough, eventually, I am going to win. Once I win, I can talk very loudly about my successful prediction, and it will appear that I am a great forecaster. The truth, however, is that I make a lot of predictions.

For example, your prediction that there would be a massive attack by al Qaeda on 9/11 last year (http://forums.armageddononline.org/premonitions_2007-t11011p2.html) doesn't seem to have worked out too well. Personally, I'm glad.

[Raptor Witness]

Please elaborate more. You say your ability is tied to this, so to accurately test anything we need to know the following: What exactly _can_ you predict, and how does "the need for repentance" tie into it?

Also, you can count me in among those who are singularly _unimpressed_ with your postdictions; I do not care how many hurricanes, football games, or whatever you claim to have predicted accurately in the past. It is simply not relevant to the question of what you can do _right now_.

I want to know what you are willing to claim you can predict IN THE FUTURE; and once we hash that out, then we can discuss the matter of making an actual prediction. All the rest is just hand-waving and obfuscation.


My ability isn't tied to the need for money, or the need to impress for personal gain. I plan to start a thread, where I'll post specific predictions. However, cryptic predictions are given more often, not to be vague, but to prevent the course of history from being altered by men.


Understand that every month or two someone comes to the forum to tout their particular eccentric superpower. Each is rife with detailed explanations as to why it only works a certain way, how it might work involving every manner of new age or mythic or religious woo and each overflowing with equal parts confidence and refusal to establish a specific protocol (even informally) to show us. From numerology to psychic dice tossing, it's all preceded you.

Time and again they await our awed adulation and shock at their magic. When we make demands or point out flaws they invariably whine about how we don't understand their skill, the math involved or the hyperdimentional whatever that makes it all so incredible and paranormal.

So, I'm sorry to say that your skills, whatever they may be, are tarnished by the hoaxes and delusions of posters past. They have jaded the audience here. Further, many of us have come by whatever path to the conclusion that there are no real paranormal powers out there. This makes us immediately skeptical of new claims, mostly because they smack so clearly of old and debunked claims.

But take heart. The very path of the skeptic gives you an easy tool to simultaneously shut us all up and make us eat crow. Hoist us by our own rules, our own beliefs. All you must do, and this is key, is follow those same scientific rules to show us that you can magic up some foreknowledge of the future in a way that is both statistically significant and very, very difficult to cheat. Clearly you want us to both believe and be impressed by your nebulous talent, so here is the direct path to that end.

The other option is to go win the lottery and soothe your pride with stacks of money.


What more can I say, than ... Hear! Hear!

[wahrheit]

However, cryptic predictions are given more often, not to be vague, but to prevent the course of history from being altered by men.

:newlol

That's one of the more original and funny excuses I have heard to date. Bravo!

[volatile]

The largest earthquake to hit the UK in 20 years happened last night. That would have been very clear and easy for you to predict, clearly, in advance.

Why didn't you?

[Crundy]

Oh right, I thought that was the curry I had last night.

[vidiviciveni]

The largest earthquake to hit the UK in 20 years happened last night. That would have been very clear and easy for you to predict, clearly, in advance.

Why didn't you?

Especially as it happened at 4 minutes to 8 p.m. (EST), 00.56 (GMT)!!!! :jaw-dropp

http://www.bgs.ac.uk/news/Market_Rasen_Feb_27_2008_web.pdf

Note to self:- Must NOT feed Troll

[remirol]

Please elaborate more. You say your ability is tied to this, so to accurately test anything we need to know the following: What exactly _can_ you predict, and how does "the need for repentance" tie into it?

Also, you can count me in among those who are singularly _unimpressed_ with your postdictions; I do not care how many hurricanes, football games, or whatever you claim to have predicted accurately in the past. It is simply not relevant to the question of what you can do _right now_.

I want to know what you are willing to claim you can predict IN THE FUTURE; and once we hash that out, then we can discuss the matter of making an actual prediction. All the rest is just hand-waving and obfuscation.

My ability isn't tied to the need for money, or the need to impress for personal gain.

This is just more hand-waving and obfuscation. I'm not interested in what you can't do; I'm interested in what you can.

Again, what _can_ you predict, and how does the "need for repentance" tie into it?

I plan to start a thread, where I'll post specific predictions.

Then I suggest you do exactly that, and spend less time explaining the past; it's not something I care about.

However, cryptic predictions are given more often, not to be vague, but to prevent the course of history from being altered by men.

I am not interested in any "cryptic" predictions that you can interpret after the fact; I am no gullible open-mouthed child to believe such things. I am only interested in specific predictions about the _future_ that are not open to interpretation. Can you produce any of those?

I am also not interested in excuses about "preventing the course of history from being altered." If this is such a concern to you, select things that cannot be conveniently altered by men without being incredibly obvious.

[ugot2bekidding]

I predict James Randi will outlive the Million Dollar Challenge.

I predict James Randi will one day have a paranormal experience, replicate it in a controlled environment, and win his own MDC. :jaw-dropp

[Raptor Witness]

Sorry, It's not as impressive as you think.

If I wanted to nit-pick, according to the national weather service,

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2007atlan.shtml)

Dean was the First hurricane, before that, the others were tropical storms. Strictly speaking, there were only 6 Hurricanes, so Dean wasn't the 4th and the 8th never happened.

But what the heck, in the interest of being fair, we'll throw in tropical storms, since they get named as well.

But now you have another problem.

If you predicted that the hurricane that did the most damage would hit on a specific day and time, more than a month in advance, that might be interesting.

But you said the "Fourth" hurricane would be the lowest pressure. Your odds? According to the national weather service, for the 2007 Hurricane season, there were 15 hurricanes. So your odds were 1 in 15. You did it twice, which I'm sorry doesn't rate more than a raised Eyebrow.

One other thing I have to ask, is can you think of things you've made predictions of that Didn't pan out? In the interest of full scientific disclosure, you should mention those as part of the data, as well.


First, thank you for the thoughtful reply. Using your reasoning, the odds increase if the named storm actually becomes a hurricane, because the contest specifies this. The reason is simple, there's no way for the contestant to know that his pick will achieve this status. This is actually a numeric factor that I had not taken into account.

When I have a little more time, I'll present my mathematical model, which needs some adjustment, and I sincerely appreciate the forum members here for helping me with this. While I don't agree with everyone,
I admire some of the minds I'm finding.

As to the past failures I may of had. This contest was the first time I specifically tried naming a hurricane, or any event of nature. I have had some luck with cryptic methods, which I may also present, but this is honestly the first time in my life that I proposed doing something like this. I have occasionally looked at a set of data and forecast storms in amateur fashion, but never blindly like this. So I couldn't compare the two, given the difference in motive and method.

I still don't hear anyone speculating as to the unusual correlation between the two hurricanes, and the [Fiesta Bowl] (http://forums.armageddononline.org/showpost.php?p=184684&postcount=10) prediction. The number 48 repeating like that, is a little strange, and even my most skeptical friends were amazed by this, or perhaps they made money on the ball game, I'm unsure. :o I haven't even tried to calculate this multiplier, but it must be factored into the overall odds, given that the motive for this game pick, and score, was an extension of the hurricane contest. I also don't think that the historic route of NASA from the International Space Station by hurricane Dean can be left out, because my arguments with NASA were the basis for these hurricane picks in the first place.

The odds of what I have done, go way beyond a simple hurricane contest, because the motive for picking these storms, were clearly stated, and these motives made unique history, also.

The question of, can I repeat this, is a reasonable one. However, what I have done in the public forum already is much more interesting that what some of the members here have proposed, because what I have done tells a story on top of revealing the odds.

I understand that some may have come here proposing this or that, but I have yet to read about anyone who's ability is tied to unique historical facts. This, in turn, makes the message I have to present, unique.

[remirol]

This is just more hand-waving and obfuscation. I'm not interested in what you can't do; I'm interested in what you can.

Again, what _can_ you predict, and how does the "need for repentance" tie into it?

I am not interested in any "cryptic" predictions that you can interpret after the fact; I am no gullible open-mouthed child to believe such things. I am only interested in specific predictions about the _future_ that are not open to interpretation. Can you produce any of those?

I am also not interested in excuses about "preventing the course of history from being altered." If this is such a concern to you, select things that cannot be conveniently altered by men without being incredibly obvious.

Raptor, you seem to have ignored my above post completely. Can you respond to it, please?

When I have a little more time, I'll present my mathematical model, which needs some adjustment,

I do not care about your mathematical model. Just predict something in the future. There will be plenty of time to discuss "how" it all is done (ad infinitum, ad nauseam) after it is shown that it _can_ be done in the first place.

So. Show us. Predict something in the _future_.

I still don't hear anyone speculating as to the unusual correlation between the two hurricanes,

That is because unusual correlations show up all the time, and indeed, are... nothing unusual.

The question of, can I repeat this, is a reasonable one.

And it's one you seem unwilling to answer.

However, what I have done in the public forum already is much more interesting

What you've done is completely uninteresting to me because it deals with past events. I can predict past events with near-100% accuracy, so I find it neither unusual or interesting, and indeed not even in need of explanation at all.

...but I have yet to read about anyone who's ability is tied to unique historical facts. This, in turn, makes the message I have to present, unique.

So now we know that your 'ability' is tied to both repentance and unique historical facts. Great. For the nth time, what do you claim to be able to predict?

[Raptor Witness]

Raptor, you seem to have ignored my above post completely. Can you respond to it, please?

I do not care about your mathematical model. Just predict something in the future. There will be plenty of time to discuss "how" it all is done (ad infinitum, ad nauseam) after it is shown that it _can_ be done in the first place.
Natural disasters are what I am best able to predict. I think I explained this. The football games were a side line or tool, used to point back to the hurricane predictions earlier, and quite successfully, given the winning score of the only college bowl game I selected.

It's important to present my mathematical model for the successes I had last year, whether you like it or not, because it will help establish how the odds can be compared, to say, a series of dice rolls. Also, I'd like to evaluate the critical thinking here, as much as you may want to evaluate me. If the members here don't understand statistics, then I'll be wasting my time.

If the concept of repentance escapes you, I gave you an [example.] (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3436732&postcount=60)

I will begin a thread for the specific predictions, as soon as I have one. I made six specific predictions last year, but I expect more this year. Of those six, I got six correct. This isn't how I earn a living, so you'll forgive me if I'm not as rapid fire as you are. :rolleyes:

[Skeptic Guy]

Natural disasters are what I am best able to predict. I think I explained this. The football games were a side line or tool, used to point back to the hurricane predictions earlier, and quite successfully, given the winning score of the only college bowl game I selected.

It's important to present my mathematical model for the successes I had last year, whether you like it or not, because it will help establish how the odds can be compared, to say, a series of dice rolls. Also, I'd like to evaluate the critical thinking here, as much as you may want to evaluate me. If the members here don't understand statistics, then I'll be wasting my time.

If the concept of repentance escapes you, I gave you an [example.] (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3436732&postcount=60)

I will begin a thread for the specific predictions, as soon as I have one. I made six specific predictions last year, but I expect more this year. Of those six, I got six correct. This isn't how I earn a living, so you'll forgive me if I'm not as rapid fire as you are. :rolleyes:

Bolding mine. But not earthquakes? As pointed out above, you seem to have missed that one.

[rjh01]

Can you predict every natural disaster or only some of them? There are many earthquakes a day. Pick one of these earthquakes and tell me what would be the location, strength the date and time it will happen.

If you can get the strength, location date and time right then that would be impressive. Also say how accurate your figures will be.

So far you have not made any predictions in this thread. That is not good.

[Cuddles]

Natural disasters are what I am best able to predict.

Go on then. We're waiting.

[remirol]

Natural disasters are what I am best able to predict. I think I explained this.

You may have, but it makes it so much simpler for everyone concerned when it's stated concisely. Thank you.

It's important to present my mathematical model for the successes I had last year,

No, it's really not, see. Those are all in the past, and as such are irrelevant to what you can do in the future, except from the perspective of giving yourself confidence that you can.

I mean, let's put it simply; if you make a specific prediction of a natural disaster (as rjh01 said, location, date, time, and intensity are good specifics), that's going to stand up all on its own, and there won't be any need for a mathematical model. In fact, the mathematical model just gets in the way of what we're really interested in here: You say X will happen, and then X happens.

Also, I'd like to evaluate the critical thinking here, as much as you may want to evaluate me. If the members here don't understand statistics, then I'll be wasting my time.

I don't understand why you'd be wasting your time. After all, if you predict X will happen and X happens, there's no need for statistics to evaluate that -- it's very straightforward.

Regardless, I can assure you that you will find more than enough critical thinking and capacity for statistical analysis here to satisfy any future desire.

If the concept of repentance escapes you, I gave you an [example.] (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=3436732&postcount=60)

From the linked post:

In [post #5,] I demonstrated that I could pick two hurricanes, and correctly select the lowest pressure in a region and greatest damage in a geographical area. That's a lot better than Dr. Gray of Colorado State University, who makes the news every time he spits out his broad assertions. Then, after carefully explaining why I picked the numbers 4 and 8 to begin with, and afterwards complaining that no one was paying me any attention, I switched to sports, specifically football. Out of 33 bowl games, I just happened to select the winner and winning score of the Fiesta Bowl, which turned out to be 48.

You know what I think? I think that anything less than the plagues of Egypt, would fall of deaf ears here. Then after the death of the first born, you would still ride out into the desert and drown.

I'm not here to juggle for you, or pull rabbits out of hats. I'm here to win. Not for the money, but because I [can.]

I don't see anything about repentance here. Perhaps you could be more specific -- how exactly does "The need for repentance" tie into your claimed ability to predict natural disasters?

I will begin a thread for the specific predictions, as soon as I have one.

Excellent. I look forward to your first.

[volatile]

Why didn't you predict the unusual, virtually unprecedented earthquake that struck the UK last week?

[AliasN]

My ability isn't tied to the need for money, or the need to impress for personal gain. I plan to start a thread, where I'll post specific predictions. However, cryptic predictions are given more often, not to be vague, but to prevent the course of history from being altered by men.


I realize that there is limited understanding here, generally, for what I can and will do in the future. You can dismiss the method for obtaining the odds, but like Noah building the Ark, my job is to warn. I can only hope that I'm not throwing my pearls before swine, here.
[my bolding added]

So, your job is to warn us, but just vaguely enough so that we can't do anything to stop whatever it might be from happening anyway?

Maybe I'm a little dense, but that doesn't seem to be a particularly useful ability, even if you could successfully demonstrate it (which I haven't seen here).

Seriously, how is this supposed ability better than not having predicted anything at all?

[wahrheit]

Why didn't you predict the unusual, virtually unprecedented earthquake that struck the UK last week?

Because attention whoring is not the same skill as foretelling the future.

[FSM]

To be honest, I am still confused as to why this guy is so obsessed with the numbers 4 and 8.

Here's why:

If you take 4 and multiply it by 8 or ATE...
which is also HATE which also translates
into MATE, the divide by CRAY then
multiply by ZEE with is also 8:

4x2=8

Do you see?

Suddenly I'm hungry for a corn dog...