Finally, Someone Not As Lazy As Me Does the Electoral Map!

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Linky. (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/2/18/14139/1413/566/459120)

Now, yes, I know it comes from a left site, but it is the only one I've found so far. And it has pictures :D !

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_1170647ba450784c2a.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=10885)


http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_1170647ba45178de82.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=10886)

And the 2004 comparison:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_1170647ba45ebacb67.gif (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=10887)

So what do you think? Agree, disagree?

I know it is too early of predictions, but I want to have some idea about what the Democrats need to do, or can do, to win the election.

Now, as this is my first election, I really have no idea which States are swing States, or which places are historically one party. So please post whether you think this is feasible.

[Puppycow]

Have you been in the Kool-aid again? (http://www.observer.com/2008/forget-kool-aid-obama-s-support-real) ;)

Seeing it on a map is good.
[:deadhorse] I was noticing the same thing in the latest state-by-state RCP polls and also the national polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html)
(with the exception of Florida, which I put down to lots of old folks.)
Otherwise, most state and national polls are Obama > McCain > Clinton. [/:deadhorse]

[Brainster]

Considering that Hillary won the raw vote tally in the Nevada caucuses over Obama, assuming that he will do better there than she would against McCain seems a dubious prospect at best.

If you are interested in a good site for looking up historical data on presidential elections, I always recommend Dave Leip's Atlas (http://uselectionatlas.org/). They have maps you can color in based on your own assumptions.

Basically, all but about 20 states are safe for one side or the other (barring a landslide win on either side). The southern states except for Florida will certainly go Republican, New England except for New Hampshire will always vote for the Democrats, the Mountain West is pretty solid GOP, but the industrial Midwest usually votes for the Donks. The big battlegrounds (states that either party could win) the last few elections have been Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Missouri, and I see no reason to expect that to change. I believe that the Republicans have never won without carrying Ohio; not sure if there's a similar Democratic bellwether.

[Puppycow]

[:deadhorse]
You can add Virginia to that list (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bbe615f5-c846-4849-a0c2-999687fd54c4): New poll shows Obama wins Virginia by 6 over McCain, Hillary loses by 3.
Iowa is worse (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fc31417c-5816-4971-ac96-67161bbe397d): Obama wins by 10, Hillary loses by 11. :covereyes
[/:deadhorse]

[Dr Adequate]

Considering that Hillary won the raw vote tally in the Nevada caucuses over Obama, assuming that he will do better there than she would against McCain seems a dubious prospect at best. Well it's not an assumption is it? That's one of the states where they're basing it on polling data for that state.

And the result is not that dubious a priori. Surely the people who voted for Clinton in the primaries will overwhelmingly vote for Obama if he's the Democratic candidate. He's also better at getting Republican and Independent votes. So that seems to add up.

[Brainster]

Well it's not an assumption is it? That's one of the states where they're basing it on polling data for that state.

And the result is not that dubious a priori. Surely the people who voted for Clinton in the primaries will overwhelmingly vote for Obama if he's the Democratic candidate. He's also better at getting Republican and Independent votes. So that seems to add up.

Fair enough, although I had to do a little digging to find the actual poll result (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/nevada/election_2008_nevada_presidential_election). However, the conclusion that those who vote for Clinton will overwhelmingly vote for Obama is far from guaranteed (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080211/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_race_ap_poll):

In a finding that underscores both McCain's cross-party appeal and the bitterness of the fight for the Democratic nomination, about one-third of Obama's supporters picked McCain when asked their preference in a Clinton-McCain general election matchup. Nearly three in 10 Clinton backers said they would vote for McCain over Obama.