potential challenger has no media presence - what to do?

[zee]

I belong to another message board of parents of twins. Another parent on the board claims to have psychic abilities. From communicating with her via this message board for a while, I have come to think that this is a genuinely nice person and is not out to intentionally scam people. I think she truly believes to have these abilities. She has recently begun giving out free psychic advice to other members of the message board who are pretty enthusiastic about her responses and are as a whole very supportive of her.

I told her that I think it is irresponsible to give psychic advice to people on important matters when she can't know for sure if she really is a psychic or if she is deluded in some way. She expressed a desire to confirm her abilities and I mentioned the million dollar challenge. Well, we have since come to find out that the challenge is only open to those who have some kind of media presence.

My question is: Is there any way around the million dollar challenge requirement of a media presence?

Also, if it turns out that the million dollar challenge is not going to work out for her, what can she do to be objectively tested in her abilities? Is there any kind of test she can take, or someone she can talk to about such a test?

Thanks in advance.

[RecoveringYuppy]

No the million dollar challenge is the only way to objectively test things. It will be a shame when science comes to a grinding halt in two years.

[zee]

So do you have any suggestions?

[Pope130]

You could tell her to practice her abilities, try tests to verify her abilities (look up some of the challenge applications for how to construct a test), demonstrate her abilities to a local reporter. If she successfully demonstrates telepathy the resulting story will fill the media presence requirement.

Or you could just let her enjoy her belief in her abilities.

Robert Klaus

[RecoveringYuppy]

So do you have any suggestions?
Rent a beach front store front near Ventura and enjoy life.

[devnull]

zee - she has paranormal psychic abilities, but the media arent interested?

Reporters arent too hard to fool.

What does she determine psychically anyway? Is it things like "you are wearing a red sweater" or things like "I feel as if you have some photos from a departed family member"?

[Coveredinbeeees]

Step one is for her to state exactly what it is that she can do that could be considered paranormal.

I'm new to posting here but I have enjoyed lurking for quite a while so I know that the folks here are pretty good at coming up with methods for people to test their own claims. Such a test may be able to show her that she is fooling herself but, if it does not, the same test could be used to convince a reporter that her ability is genuine. It would also be a good basis for the final protocol.

So, what exactly is her paranormal claim?

[The Atheist]

Is there any kind of test she can take, or someone she can talk to about such a test?

Thanks in advance.

Lots of challenges remain.

Here's a list from Skepdic. (http://www.skepdic.com/randi.html)

[chillzero]

zee,
As TA pointed out, there are other challenges, and passing one of those may qualify her for the MDC, and would definitely arouse some media interest.

My advice would be to suggest she comes and joins us here. That's what I did when I was challenged by someone to take the MDC. I came and lurked for a bit in order to understand how to test my claimed psychic ability, and asked a few questions in threads like this one.

It has turned out to be the best decision I could ever have made, and I'd strongly recommend it.

[chillzero]

No the million dollar challenge is the only way to objectively test things. It will be a shame when science comes to a grinding halt in two years.

Blatently untrue.

[Lothian]

Step one is for her to state exactly what it is that she can do that could be considered paranormal.

I'm new to posting here but I have enjoyed lurking for quite a while so I know that the folks here are pretty good at coming up with methods for people to test their own claims. Such a test may be able to show her that she is fooling herself but, if it does not, the same test could be used to convince a reporter that her ability is genuine. It would also be a good basis for the final protocol.

So, what exactly is her paranormal claim?I agree. There will be no problem getting a media presence if she does have powers. I am sure a simple test can be devised which will show whether she has the powers or not. That test need not be conducted by a formal organisation. If the test is sound anyone should be able to conduct it.

The first stage however is for her to clearly state what she can do.

[Cuddles]

My question is: Is there any way around the million dollar challenge requirement of a media presence?

The obvious answer is to get a media presence. As others have said, it's really not that hard. Especially if you have magic powers that no-one has ever demonstrated before and that will completley overturn all our understanding of science and the world in general. If a story about a cat being found in the back of a van can make the news, I think the biggest discovery since the pointy stick should just about manage.

Blatently untrue.

I have a strange feeling he was being sarcastic.;)

[Rasmus]

To chime in, in the past we have attempted various tests in the forums.

They tend to fail because quite often the applicants are not able to clearly state what they can or cannot do. Alternatively, they miraculously end up not having so many important things to do that they cannot invest a couple of hours (tops) into earning their first million and world fame. But we do try, and a simple test can be set up quite easily. The results won't be conclusive, of course, but passing such a test would be quite remarkable at least.

(See A skeptic tests psychic ability (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=106541) for a recent sample. I think you will be able to see that the general forum crowd as been quite friendly and accommodating despite - or should that be because of - their scepticism.)

[tkingdoll]

One thing I don't recommend is to try and court some media presence just to fulfill the challenge criteria. The last thing society needs is more exposure to unbalanced, unobjective media stories about the paranormal, and in fact that exposure would, you'd think, run contrary to the objectives of the JREF in the first place.

It's a shame they included that caveat, IMHO.

[petre]

The first big hurdle in testing something paranormal is determining what exactly it is you're testing. It's the standard scientific method:

1 - Observe the data. Is there some consistent piece of data she seems to be aware of with no other explanation? It need not be anything remarkable. Gender, age, attire of persons unknown (and later verifiable). Future information, like tomorrow's lottery numbers, works well too.

2 - Form a hypothesis. This is the tricky step, from the observations in the previous step you must form some sort of claim that is (a) testable and (b) paranormal. It's a bit of a mental hurdle to be sure. There are people here that could help, either by linking us to your forum so we might browse the evidence available there or by having this other parent open a discussion here. I'll forewarn that folks here are often direct, and can be dismissive of unnecessary details (like "feelings"). This can put off potential applicants, but it is rather effective in teasing out any information that would be useful in putting together a challenge.

3 - Test the hypothesis. Many applicants consider this step to be the challenge itself, but really they ought to simulate the conditions of their test protocol themselves first to be confident that they will perform as expected. A failure at this step (and a desire to continue) will necessitate returning to step 2 to reform a new hypothesis based on the new evidence gained from the failed test.

I'll note that I've never seen anyone actually complete the above 3 steps before moving on to the challenge. I'd say 99% of the time they can't even get past step 1. The idea of something paranormal is simply so facinating and inspiring that they just can't bring themselves to make demands of it (and risk discovering that it even has limitations). Of the rest, most never bother with step 3 and jump right to a challenge, and all of those have failed.

A very small handful actually attempt step 3. Without exception, all of them have found it does not perform in the way they expected in step 2. In the really interesting cases, they then go back to step 2, form a new hypothesis, and repeat the process. After many iterations, most people start coming to a conclusion that maybe nothing paranormal was ever really going on in the first place. Rare others find themselves in an endless loop, forever reforming their hypothesis into increasingly complex theories that would explain why something seemed to work the first time they saw it and never again.

That's the road to the million dollars, as best as I can describe it. If someone can get through step 3, I believe getting media presence and winning the challenge will be easy by comparison. There are people here willing to help (as well as those eager to point and laugh, you'll just have to ignore those).

[zee]

Wow - thank you all for your thoughtful responses, especially you, Petrie.

I will relay the information that you have provided me here to the other twin parent and hope that she is interested in continuing. I hope you don't mind, Petrie, if I paste your response as a quote at the other board so that she can see how one might begin.

She has mentioned that she is reluctant to reveal her identity, which is also a requirement of the challenge, so I am not sure how she will proceed from here.

Thanks again.

[rjh01]

Maybe she knows she has no ability. So she will use any excuse to refuse to be tested.

[petre]

Wow - thank you all for your thoughtful responses, especially you, Petrie.

I will relay the information that you have provided me here to the other twin parent and hope that she is interested in continuing. I hope you don't mind, Petrie, if I paste your response as a quote at the other board so that she can see how one might begin.

She has mentioned that she is reluctant to reveal her identity, which is also a requirement of the challenge, so I am not sure how she will proceed from here.

Thanks again.

Certainly, I hope my words help. While applying for the challenge certainly can't be done anonymously, one's posting here is anonymous (I think regestering for this site does require accurate personal information, but it is not required to reveal that information to other posters). The process itself, even if unfruitful in winning a million dollars, can be very educational (the main purpose of the JREF, if you will).

[ile]

Please, please, do not encourage here to obtain media coverage. If she ever realises that she is deluded, it would be doubly hard for her to accept the fact that she is not "special", having been exposed in public.

In all likelihood, media exposure will either harden her (possibly unconscious) decision not to admit that there is no such a thing, or shame her.

Neither option is good.

If you have the time (because it takes ages), try to guide her through the steps indicated by Petre.

Another piece of advice, if I may: decouple, as much as you can, her "psychic" beliefs from her religious beliefs, if any.


Good luck! (most specially for her...)

[Ocelot]

One of the other stumbling blocks before you even get to media pressense is that she must provide at least one signed document from an academic who has witnessed the powers or abilities of the person, and will validate that these powers or abilities have been verified.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Why not find out (or observe) what sort of abilities she claims to have on the bulletin board, and set up some reasonable test of those abilities that she will agree to ahead of time. Really, it's about the same as setting up a protocol for the MDC, but without the money. If she's really just interested in verifying her abilities, it should suffice.

What sort of abilities does she claim? (Or what abilities is she acting as if she has?) Perhaps people here can help set up a test of those abilities.

There's one huge plus--she can't claim it only works face-to-face since she's already doing this via an internet message board. Shouldn't be so difficult to come up with a test.

[Blue Mountain]

Another thing, if she is indeed serious about testing her abilities, ask her to check out cold reading, and its counterpart on the part of the person being read, the Forer effect..

[Niobe]

Maybe she knows she has no ability. So she will use any excuse to refuse to be tested.Perhaps she's worried about not having the link to people's post history when she steps off the message board.

[RemieV]

Feel free to give her the e-mail address challenge@randi.org if she has any further questions.