Obama Jump in Pennsylvania

[zosima]

The real clear politics average in Pennsylvania shows that Obama jumped a bunch on ~April 4th and Clinton took a big hit. The increase is very abrupt. So what caused the Boost in the polls? Was it Bosnia? The Race speech? Here's a link to the poll:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#charts

What do ya'll think?

[corplinx]

Obama is more attractive and more enthralling than Hillary Clinton and any electorate exposed to both will lean towards Obama with time.

At some very basic level, we recognize voters are very fickle. Obama has more money than Hillary and is probably outspending her to a great degree in Pennsylvania.

[zosima]

Obama is more attractive and more enthralling than Hillary Clinton and any electorate exposed to both will lean towards Obama with time.

At some very basic level, we recognize voters are very fickle. Obama has more money than Hillary and is probably outspending her to a great degree in Pennsylvania.

I think the much more interesting issue, is not which politician is better, but why his opinion seemed to be flat over a long period then it jumped up almost 6% then it went flat again. At the same time clinton dropped 6% and then went flat again. At least according to RCP this wasn't voters leaning towards Obama over time, it would seem to imply some single event around that time changed opinions.(or there is some flaw in RCP's methodology, or there is some significant outlier)

So any other thoughts?

[UserGoogol]

At least according to RCP this wasn't voters leaning towards Obama over time, it would seem to imply some single event around that time changed opinions.(or there is some flaw in RCP's methodology, or there is some significant outlier)

So any other thoughts?

There are other possible explanations. It's possible that, rather than some particular event swinging over people's opinions, that the gradual campaigning of Obama slowly put pressure on people to swing but they didn't do so until it eventually hit a sort of phase transition where lots of people suddenly became just motivated enough to switch their position without a particular event triggering it.

[T.A.M.]

it will be (for me) unpleasantly interesting to see how the whooplah over "bitter" will play on this, perhaps reversing some of his gains.

TAM:)

[zosima]

There are other possible explanations. It's possible that, rather than some particular event swinging over people's opinions, that the gradual campaigning of Obama slowly put pressure on people to swing but they didn't do so until it eventually hit a sort of phase transition where lots of people suddenly became just motivated enough to switch their position without a particular event triggering it.

That seems like a great analogy but it doesn't really add anything, why would the phase change happen then? It would take an improbably number of people making the same decision simultaneously, thats why its hard for me to believe it is without direct and central cause.