Speculate: Will this video affect the outcome in Indiana?

[chipmunk stew]

Clinton Advisor: Indianans "S*t", "Worthless White N*rs"

sN_nQOHj__s

[Upchurch]

They may or may not be ****, but are they bitter?

Now, that is an insult.

:rolleyes:

[Brainster]

Clearly not as important as Obama's "bitter" comment because it doesn't come from the candidate, but it's not likely to help Clinton any. My guess is that Hillary still wins Hoosier country, but by less than she might have without this controversy.

Good timing for Obama. I see that the clip is getting posted on the big lefty blogs (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/1/224225/7075).

Of course, liberals tend to think that way of any state that votes reliably Republican (Indiana has gone for the Republican ticket every election since 1968). Remember all the "Jesusland" cracks?

[David Wong]

I have serious doubts these days as to how much these "gotcha" events swing the results. Sure, you see a bounce in the polls by a few points, because angry people will gladly tell a pollster they won't vote for them based on the most recent gaffe or embarrassing sound bite. But when it comes time to pull the lever...

Look at Pennsylvania; those results fell right smack in the middle of what every one of us was predicting since Ohio (that is, that the voting would be almost identical because the demographics are the same). All that controversy, the debate, all the coverage and commentators and blog posts... what did it amount to?

Nothing. The results were frozen a month before the vote. Hillary's polling up in IN by 5-6 points, and I predict that right before the vote, there will be polls showing it's tied. Then, on primary day... she'll win by 5-6 points.

Likewise, Obama has polled up in NC by 12-15 points for months. Again you'll see the polls tighten up on the eve, just like Ohio, maybe even the odd poll showing Hillary ahead. Then they'll vote and, you guessed it, Obama will win by 12-15 points.

This stuff is more to keep the pundits entertained. The commentators and bloggers live in their own little world and they are fighting their own little war. But the voters at large make up their minds, for their own reasons, usually weeks ahead of time.

I can't believe I'm going to have to sit through six more months of this. "Hey, McCain's houskeeper said she hated Jews! A newspaper Obama wrote for in college once ran an editorial saying we should invade Mexico!

ZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....

[Brainster]

Kantor's response (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/02/clinton-adviser-claims-in_n_99810.html):

Mickey Kantor, who served as campaign chairman during Clinton's 1992 run for the White House and says he has offered help and advice to Sen. Clinton, insisted that the tape was a fraud and that he was exploring legal steps against the individual who posted it online.

"I've never used that word in my entire life, ever, under any circumstance, ever," an angry Kantor told The Huffington Post, citing his and his parent's work fighting for civil rights. "I have listened to [the video] and so have you. You can't tell what it is I'm saying in that second sentence, you can't decipher that."

Indeed, a review of the original copy of the 1993 film The War Room, from which the excerpt was taken (around the 4:40 mark) is virtually inaudible. The sound suggests, if anything, that instead of saying "How would you like to be a worthless white n****r?" Kantor says, "How would you like to be in the White House right now?"

Kantor's claim does make some sense. He says that he was talking about the Bush Administration with the s--t comment, and then he follows it up with, "How would you like to be in the White House right now?" implying that it must be a very gloomy place over there.

[Pookster]

Kantor's response (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/02/clinton-adviser-claims-in_n_99810.html):



Kantor's claim does make some sense. He says that he was talking about the Bush Administration with the s--t comment, and then he follows it up with, "How would you like to be in the White House right now?" implying that it must be a very gloomy place over there.

With the polls showing Bush's approval ratings as they are, I think it might well be very gloomy over there. I doubt Bush is very excited about how his last year in office is going.

[T.A.M.]

let the spin begin...

TAM:)

[BPSCG]

With the polls showing Bush's approval ratings as they are, I think it might well be very gloomy over there. I doubt Bush is very excited about how his last year in office is going.Um, the reference was to George H. W. Bush - the clip is from the 1993 film, The War Room.

[Pookster]

Um, the reference was to George H. W. Bush - the clip is from the 1993 film, The War Room.

I was due another blonde moment. *shrugs*

[Brainster]

Ruh-roh! Here's the relevant portion of The War Room; the part that has been edited starts at about 4:00.

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/4_wKOgMNs0U&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/4_wKOgMNs0U&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

You can see that at about 4:38 Kantor comes in and what he says is, "Look at Indiana. It doesn't matter if we win. Those people are shi--ing."

Whoa! Note that the last word is a passive verb, not a noun. Kantor is saying that it doesn't matter if Clinton wins Indiana. And as it happened, it didn't and he didn't. The point is that if the Democrats come anywhere close in Indiana, they have won, and you can see that clearly in the reactions of Carville and Stephanopolous as they read the Indiana numbers. And as a result "those people" (clearly in context the Papa Bush administration) are pooping in their pants.

I cannot hear completely the next bit, but my best guess is as follows:

"Oh, excuse me. The White House. How would you like to be at the White House right now?"

So the controversy is over unless this ridiculously edited video be tied to the Obama campaign. That is the only way it is likely to affect the outcome in Indiana.