A million dollars isn't enough!

[severin]

If I were truly psychic, I'd keep damn quiet about it. I wouldn't want to end up as some sort of lab rat or be pressurized into doing dodgy things for the military. I know some people are desperate for fame but a million dollars wouldn't be enough for me to make up for being prodded and poked and electrodes being attached to my brain. It's not like being a super athlete or a scientist making a breakthrough discovery, you'd be treated like a freak and hounded by the press forever. No amount of money is worth that.

What does everyone think? Would you be emailing Randi if you could turn water into wine?

[Brown]

Originally posted by severin
Would you be emailing Randi if you could turn water into wine? Hell, yes!

As I've said before, if I really had a supernatural ability, I would be eager to demonstrate it for the million dollar prize. I'd be first in line, and I wouldn't insist on changing the experiment or having options for trickery left open to me.

Many of the claimed extraordinary abilities are actually quite trivial, with little or no known military value. Other abilities clearly would have military value if they were real, and it would be a hell of a lot easier to sell these skills to the military for a lot more money if the skills had been validated by JREF.

[Torlack]

If I was a fraud I would make up all sorts of excuses for not to try the million dollar test.

[uneasy]

People don't have to display useful powers to win the challenge. If they could make eggs explode by just staring at them, but only hummingbird eggs laid on a Tuesday, I think that would win it, if they could really do it.

If I were to develop super powers, I would display the bare minimum required to win the money. All my other mighty powers would be used for my own ends. hahahahaha, you'll pay, you will all pay!!! :mad: :)

[!Xx+-Rational-+xX!]

**** the millions dollar challenge. As I have said before we are just the imagination of a evil alien that doesn't exist so there is no point!

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by severin
.... you'd be treated like a freak and hounded by the press forever. No amount of money is worth that.
The point about the Challenge, certainly as I see it, is to shove it in the faces of people who are already very public about their alleged powers. And very useful it is too.

Oh, you say you can talk to the dead / foretell the future / find water with a forked stick / cure disease with shaken-up water? Prove it!

Naw, can't be bothered. What's in it for me anyway?

A million bucks?

This ploy was used just last week in a veterinary journal.
Human nature doesn't often turn up its nose at an easy £600,000 plus. Even if the money is irrelevant, what about the publicity value? Winning that prize for homoeopathy would stun the critics dead in their tracks. The system and its proponents would be resoundingly vindicated. The world would be at your feet. But still, nobody seems to want to try.
That's the rest of the pont, isn't it? Winning the prize would give their powers enormous publicity, and validate their claims better than anything else I can think of. The fact that the prize is still sitting there unwon is in itself a good pointer to the claims being bogus.

Actually, I thought this thread might mean something else. £630,000 (or a bit more) isn't wealth beyond the dreams of avarice these days. For one person it's certainly a tidy sum, and I for one would go for it if I thought there was anything in the woo-woo claims. However, what if the prize has to be split?

The guy the quoted text was aimed at had another letter on the same page in which he claimed it needed a team of 10 people to identify the homoeopathic remedy, because each might experience slightly different symptoms and you had to put it all together. At that point, you're starting to look at just £63,000 each. Well, it's still better than a slap in the face with a wet fish, and my points about the publicity value still stand, but it doesn't look quite so tasty all of a sudden.

I still think it's reasonable bait though, and for it's intended purpose of allowing anyone to say to a charlatan or quack "put up or shut up", it works very nicely.

Roilfe.

[severin]

Even if all I could do was levitate a ping pong ball, I don't think I'd tell anyone. You'd attract a whole array of nutters, for a start - people who thought they had powers too, people who wanted to see you do it, people who were convinced you were faking it, journalists, chat show researchers, etc etc. It's not like you could just pop round to Randi's house for a private demonstration. Your life would never be your own again. And if you knew you could do it for real, why would you want 'validating'?

As far as I'm concerned, the prize is there to weed out the loonies.

[Dorian Gray]

If I could turn water into wine, I could make far more than a million dollars by planting a cover vineyard and digging a well in a bottling plant on the property.

In a sense, this means that Randi's prize is sort of the same kind of trick that he routinely debunks.

He knows no one will ever claim the prize, because frauds can't claim it and someone with legitimate powers won't claim it.

[Brown]

Originally posted by severin
Even if all I could do was levitate a ping pong ball, I don't think I'd tell anyone. You'd attract a whole array of nutters, for a start - people who thought they had powers too, people who wanted to see you do it, people who were convinced you were faking it, journalists, chat show researchers, etc etc. It's not like you could just pop round to Randi's house for a private demonstration. Your life would never be your own again. And if you knew you could do it for real, why would you want 'validating'?

As far as I'm concerned, the prize is there to weed out the loonies. Sorry, I don't buy it.

Let's use the ping pong ball as an example. There are lots of ways to perform a simple stunt like levitating a ping pong ball. Some of them involve known principles of science, such as suspending a ping pong ball in a column of air. Some of them involve trickery, with hidden apparatus that makes the ping pong ball appear to levitate in violation of physical laws.

But if you could levitate a ping pong ball, I mean really levitate it in violation of physical laws without any trickery, then why not take the challenge? It would be easy money which could more than pay your expenses. As for publicity, that is largely a matter within your control. You can choose to shove yourself into the limelight or not.

Also, I understand that it is possible to drop by the JREF to give a demonstration of claimed powers, and I understand many claimants have done so. Calling ahead, of course, will assure that Mr. Randi or other qualified witness will be present.

If I could levitate a ping pong ball, I mean really levitate it, I would have no hesitation about signing up for the challenge. These excuses that "I don't need the money" or "I don't need validation" or "The test is going to be unfair" ring hollow.

[roger]

Originally posted by severin
Even if all I could do was levitate a ping pong ball, I don't think I'd tell anyone. You'd attract a whole array of nutters, for a start - people who thought they had powers too, people who wanted to see you do it, people who were convinced you were faking it, journalists, chat show researchers, etc etc. It's not like you could just pop round to Randi's house for a private demonstration. Your life would never be your own again. And if you knew you could do it for real, why would you want 'validating'?

As far as I'm concerned, the prize is there to weed out the loonies.

Objection 1
Given that Randi in fact has an endless stream of people who sincerely think that they have the ability they claim, what does this do to your hypothesis.

To be very clear:

your hypothesis: anyone who knows they can do the act will not apply.

reality: hundreds of people who know they can do the act (they just happen to be deluded, so far at least) do apply for the prize.

Objection 2
your hypothesis: people wouldn't want to be paid a million dollars for moving a ball because of the change in life status.

reality: people routinely get paid a million dollars (sometimes much more, sometimes much less) for moving a ball around, and this choice has all the attendent stalking by the press, by fans, nutcases, etc. These people are called professional atheletes.

In short, your objections are clearly shown to be false by the facts.

[jimmygun]

If I could change water into beer I wouldn't contact Randi or anyone else. Well maybe my drinking buddies, the local liver transplant people, meals on wheels, that sort of person.

Now that I think about it I can change water into beer. It's just that it takes about two weeks and about a hundred dollars. Never mind.:D

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by severin
Even if all I could do was levitate a ping pong ball, I don't think I'd tell anyone.

As far as I'm concerned, the prize is there to weed out the loonies.
OK, have I got this right? There are lots of people who are absolutely sure they can do something which would win the prize. But only the ones who are deluded will actually try.

Well, we know one thing, the ones who have tried certainly have all been deluded. But does this imply that there are people who can do it and aren't deluded?

T'ai Chi said some time ago that you couldn't say for sure that nobody has superpowers unless you've tested absolutely everybody - past and present (and then of course there still might be superpowered people in the future). Logically, he's right. But practically?

This argument has to suppose that every ping-pong-ball levitator who isn't deluded is more concerned with personal privacy than becoming rich. You can't be sure there aren't one or two shy superpowered guys in hiding, but human nature being what it is, any more than a couple, and somebody wouldn't be able to resist going for it.

One thing's for sure. The world is full of people who claim to be able to do things which would win the prize. So far as they are concerned, they either go for it, and (so far, always) are shown to be deluded, or by repeatedly weasling out of the challenge, demonstrate that they are total charlatans. There is no reason at all for anyone who is already claiming the powers in public not to try for the money (and the attendant fame, validation, "I told you so" opportunity etc.).

If genuine powers exist in more than one or two coincidentally very shy people, common sense suggests that the offer of all that money would have flushed at least one of the endowed-ones out of hiding.

I'm cool with that.

Rolfe.

[severin]

Jeez, guys. All I'm saying is that I would keep quiet about it, not that this proves or disproves anything or that you can extrapolate anything about human nature from my own personal reaction!

I do have a psychic power, by the way. I can turn money into cake.

[uneasy]

Originally posted by severin
Jeez, guys. All I'm saying is that I would keep quiet about it, not that this proves or disproves anything or that you can extrapolate anything about human nature from my own personal reaction!
Nope, doesn't mean one thing one way or another. But you are making a comment on an extraordinary claim, a real supernatural ability.

I could say these two things:

If I got Halle Berry to marry me, I wouldn't tell anyone.

If I took out the trash tonight, I wouldn't tell anyone.

For one of those, I should expect a skeptical or humorous rebuttal because it's an extraordinary premise. Hint: It's the one involving a beautiful movie star.

[severin]

I wasn't making a comment on a real supernatural ability, I was merely using it as an example. I could just have easily have picked remote viewing as PK. I'm just interested in the psychology of the claimants. I think maybe the tone of my original post was misunderstood, judging by the responses.

So let me say it again - if I were psychic, I would keep it to myself because my fears would be that I might be exploited or things might get out of my control. And a million dollars wouldn't make up for that. In my opinion. That's all. No comment on other people. Clearer? Is it because I'm English? I'm doing my best.

[apoger]

>What does everyone think? Would you be emailing Randi

To help bring about a stunning breakthough that would change science as we know it and possibly be of immense practical benefit to mankind? Yes! I would be proud to allow myself to be "poked and prodded" for such a cause.

You're telling me that you would hold back new information that might increase our knowledge and transform our society? Shame on you.

[roger]

Originally posted by severin
[B]I wasn't making a comment on a real supernatural ability, I was merely using it as an example. I could just have easily have picked remote viewing as PK. I'm just interested in the psychology of the claimants. I think maybe the tone of my original post was misunderstood, judging by the responses.
severin, speaking for myself, I apologize, as I did assume you were criticizing the challenge, rather than offering a personal opinion. I went back and read your opening post, and I see where you are coming from. We've had a rash of posters, who in there very first post, come to this forum and start criticizing either Randi or how the challenge is structured. "if Randi would just X, then Y would occur". That sort of thing, ignoring that Randi structured the challenge to take into account all of his past dealings with scepticism. So I guess I was a little quick on the draw.

Also, it is a favorite tactic to attack the challenge, trying to show that it is invalid or unfair, to explain why the famous mediums refuse to take the test.

So, in the spirit of the question that you asked, yes, I would take the million. I'd probably work very hard to make as much money from the talent that I could (talk shows and such), then I would work w/ the scientists to study the talent, then I'd use my millions to buy myself a nice quiet life somewhere. I'm sure the celebrity angle would become trying (I don't aspire to celebrity in any way), but I don't fear getting dragged away by the government or anything.


Welcome to the forum!

[uneasy]

I have to repeat a little what Roger said. I think it's a combination of where you are posting (challenge forum), and your number of posts that make people apprehensive. I haven't done a study, but it seems that people signup so they can make one of their first posts a hit and run attack on JREF and then disappear. Only time can tell.

I still don't agree with you. :)

[FoundIn]

Originally posted by roger


Objection 1
Given that Randi in fact has an endless stream of people who sincerely think that they have the ability they claim, what does this do to your hypothesis.

To be very clear:

your hypothesis: anyone who knows they can do the act will not apply.

reality: hundreds of people who know they can do the act (they just happen to be deluded, so far at least) do apply for the prize.

Objection 2
your hypothesis: people wouldn't want to be paid a million dollars for moving a ball because of the change in life status.

reality: people routinely get paid a million dollars (sometimes much more, sometimes much less) for moving a ball around, and this choice has all the attendent stalking by the press, by fans, nutcases, etc. These people are called professional atheletes.

In short, your objections are clearly shown to be false by the facts.


If someone could defy the laws of physics and say float a ping-pong ball, that would put them in a seperate catagory than anyone else.
So deducing this "special" person's motivations by comparing "ordinary" people's motiviations is not logical.

I tend to agree with the original point of this thread. The Million prize only tests those that have a power beyond the normal AND yet maintain normal motivations.

[roger]

Originally posted by FoundIn
If someone could defy the laws of physics and say float a ping-pong ball, that would put them in a seperate catagory than anyone else.
So deducing this "special" person's motivations by comparing "ordinary" people's motiviations is not logical. It's very logical. There is no reason to suppose that this person will have different motivations because they can float a ping pong ball using their mind.

[severin]

Phew. I'm glad you see what I was getting at now.

I hate people who come onto messageboards to to slag off a programme or a person. What's the point in that? I think Randi is great - I wish he'd come over here more often.

As to the million dollars, I think I have more chance with the lottery tickets.

Nice deer, by the way.

[FoundIn]

Roger,
Waddya mean "no reason to suppose different motivations". The hypothetical is that this person can levitate a ping-pong ball. That seems to be reason enough to me.

The idea that you are sure there would be nothing different about this person (other than the ability to levitate ping-pong balls) is taking a leap of logic. What if this ability only existed because the person had taken a vow of poverty? Then any attempt a garnering a million dollars would cause the ping-pong raising ability to vanish.

What if besides having this ability the person was painfully shy? This would make it impossible to claim a public award.

[CurtC]

If *I* had real psychic powers, I wouldn't fart around with Randi's measley million dollars. I'd be making fistfulls of money at the race track, casinos, etc.

[Aoidoi]

I've thought about this a bit, and I rather came to the conclusion that if I became convinced I had some sort of supernatural ability I would want to be tested to see if I was fooling myself. Seems like convincing Randi would go a long way to convincing myself I hadn't just gone nuts. :)

The million would be nice, but I assume you'd make far more money on the book and movie rights than just on the challenge. As to the fame and/or notoriety, well, I imagine it would get quite annoying, but you could always buy yourself a little island and a lot of guns... ;)

(Just my personal opinion, your mileage may vary)

[severin]

Hhm. I still fear the freak show possiibilities. Or maybe I'm just more modest than you guys!

[Rolfe]

The interesting thing about the Challenge is that nobody has won it. Maybe Severin wouldn't want to go for it, fair enough, and maybe there could be a few others of the same mind. But.

I don't see any reason why having paranormal abilities that are real should be inevitably associated with a phobia about publicity. Occam's razor and all that. After all, we do know that thinking you have paranormal abilities (falsely) isn't associated with shyness. And if there's no such inevitable association, then statistics suggets that there can't be more than one or two such gifted people. A Venn diagram would demonstrate it.

Probability is there are none, actually.

Rolfe.

[Tricky]

Has anyone here read Kurt Vonnegut's excellent short story, Report on the Barnhouse Effect (http://marketcrush.com/10biblio/12Sc/12SC16.htm)? It was from his early days of writing sci-fi and it postulated a man with telekinetic powers. The story is summarized in the above link, but I recommend you read it. It is an excellent commentary on the question of "What would you do if you had magical powers?" and includes the theme that the government would try to use him for their purposes.

[Marquis de Carabas]

If I were truly psychic, I'd keep damn quiet about it. I wouldn't want to end up as some sort of lab rat or be pressurized into doing dodgy things for the military.
If I were truly psychic, I'd collect the million dollars, and all the fame that goes with it, and use my amazing psychic powers to stay one step ahead of the Man.

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by Marquis de Carabas

If I were truly psychic, I'd collect the million dollars, and all the fame that goes with it, and use my amazing psychic powers to stay one step ahead of the Man.
And that's the point. There's no logical reason to suspect that some of the genuine paranormally-powered woudn't take that view. If there were any.

Rolfe.

[severin]

OK, so I'm a wimp.

[Giambattista]

I tend to agree with the original point of this thread. The Million prize only tests those that have a power beyond the normal AND yet maintain normal motivations.

People who believe they posesses paranormal abilities have 'normal motivations'? Your syllogy is skewed but I do see your point. The JREF challenge is inapplicable to those with such severe mental problems that they are not motivated by the usual motivations sane people recognize as persuasive prizes offered by the JREF (material gain, prestige, taking Randi's money, donating Randi's money to charity, helping science investigate a metaphysical talent, putting randi out of business, and many more very human motivations...).

Those sorts of people would be so far removed from the consensual reality of society that they would face great difficulty in this world aside from simply not being testable by the JREF, which should be the least of their worries. They would also be unemployable, may need constant help doing simple tasks, and might require extensive medications and institutionalization.

[Giambattista]

Originally posted by CurtC
If *I* had real psychic powers, I wouldn't fart around with Randi's measley million dollars. I'd be making fistfulls of money at the race track, casinos, etc.

At the race track you'd kill your own odds as soon as you lay down a large bet and the very nature of a longshot is that it doesn't happen frequently (This is assuming your psychic power is the ability to see into the future, and not telekinetic in nature in which case you could just psychically move your longshot to the head of the pack!). The casino would boot you out as a card counter in no time. Why not just hit the lottery 10 times in a row? It's always a longshot with a big payoff. And hey, you could do it whether you are able to see into the future or telekinetically make those little ping pong balls with the the numbers on them get spit out of the machine at the lottery company in the right order! HMMM I guess we'd have noticed a pattern of repeat lottery winners by now if psychic phenomena were real. This is of course where a true-believer will move the goal posts and declare that real psychics are so spiritually advanced that they're not motivated by monetary gain. Of course they could win the lottery 10 times in a row and use the money to combat world famine, poverty, disease, war, etc... So if there are any real psychics out there, not only are they not personally greedy with their powers, they're also selfish in their unwillingness to use them to help others!

[Giambattista]

Originally posted by FoundIn
What if this ability only existed because the person had taken a vow of poverty? Then any attempt a garnering a million dollars would cause the ping-pong raising ability to vanish.


This is why Randi has the applicant design the protocol. In this case the applicant would have to agree that the $1million prize wouldn't be part of the challenge.

[xouper]

If I could win the lottery at will through psychic means, I would probably only do one lottery for a large sum (over $100 million) and not tell anyone how I did it. If someone has already done this, how would anyone else know? I certainly wouldn't fault such a person for wanting to keep their psychic ability secret.

[Giambattista]

What if you could also predict the future that if you win the lottery you will buy a jet or a fast car which will crash and you will die? But then you could avoid it. But if you do then you didn't predict the future... if the future is 'not formed yet' and therefore changable then whatever you predicted wasn't the future but just a possible future. And if all you are doing is predicting possible futures then you wouldn't be predicting your lottery numbers coming up, you'd be making them come up.

[xouper]

Giambattista: ... if all you are doing is predicting possible futures then you wouldn't be predicting your lottery numbers coming up, you'd be making them come up.Agreed. Your analysis is one of many possibilities. Which is why my hypothetical example didn't specify how it was done. Notice that I specifically did not use the word "predict", although there are many ways that could be done without running into the paradox you describe.

[tonygraham]

Wouldn't becoming famous for these powers give you some measure of protection from "them"?

[Lothian]

It depends on the motivation of the person concerned.

If they wanted money they would be better off not doing the challenge and making millions Uri style. There is a lot more ongoing public interest (and money) in the does he cheat /doesn’t he cheat? How does he do it ? Improper tests speculation than a boring Oh yes we have proved it he really can read minds.

Lets face it when a psychic appears on an entertainment show its like motor sport, you want to see him crash.You tune in each time in anticipation. If you know he is not going to it gets boring it is not entertaining, ratings drop......

If they had a serious interest in science and discovering how the world works they would take the challenge.

The problem is the most likely exponents fall into the first category while their proponents fall into the latter.