Can McCain win?

[David Wong]

I'd prefer to leave opinion out of this thread (in other words, please refrain from "MCCAIN CAN'T WIN BECAUSE HE'S WRONG FOR AMERICA!!!!)

This is about trying to take an unbiased look at the electoral map and figuring out where we stand. I've phrased this as "can McCain win" because I believe the deck is stacked against him, and this thread is to see if I'm wrong.

Here is the situation:

The Republican incumbent has a popularity rating in the high 20's.

The "country is headed in the wrong direction" polls are in the 70-80% range.

In generic "will you vote Democrat or Republican" polls, voters prefer Democrat by 12 points (51 to 39, with the rest going to "none of the above"). Again thank Bush for that.

Obama also appears set to raise about four times as much money as McCain. That is obviously not unrelated to the first one; there is a definite bandwagon effect.

The last two elections have been VERY narrow losses for the Democrats; there are several states that were lost by less than 5 points, and if Obama can flip just a couple of them, he's over the magic number.

Here's a republican consultant explaining the situation:

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/05/john_heilemann_talks_with_repu.html

He says right now Obama has a 60% chance of winning. And that's the republican talking.

Here's a democrat breaking down the electoral map.

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/index.html

Now I realize that there are elements working against Obama; the problem with working class whites not turning out for him. But understand that this group still traditionally goes Democrat. For instance, Obama lost Pennsylvania to Hillary because of the working class white vote, but still beats McCain by 5-7 points in polls there:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pennsylvania.html

I'm not saying McCain can't win; if Obama pulled the upset over Hillary, surely McCain can pull the upset over Obama.

So it looks to me like there's a 60 - 70% chance Obama will be the next President.

Am I missing anything? Do the articles linked above seem to miss anything?

[CptColumbo]

IMO Much of the outcome is still dependant on factors that are still not complete.
1. The Democratic nominee is still technically undecided.
2. VP choices of major candidates are (for the most part) yet to be made.
3. There is still plenty of time for someone to make a major mistake (see above).

[Loss Leader]

Am I missing anything? Do the articles linked above seem to miss anything?


Considering the fact that Kerry was supposed to have a mortal lock on the White House, I'd say that McCain certainly can win.

[David Wong]

Considering the fact that Kerry was supposed to have a mortal lock on the White House, I'd say that McCain certainly can win.


I don't ever remember that being the case, particularly with an incumbent running. Was he ever substantially in the lead in the polls? If so, I don't remember it. The challenger is always considered the underdog to the incumbent.

Don't project Bush's current popularity ratings back to 2004; at the time he still had substantial support.

[David Wong]

Here's the 2004 tracking poll results across the entire campaign (http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm).

Looks like Kerry was polling well behind Bush up until June/July. So your memory of 2004 is a little skewed; he was never a lock or even favored except for brief periods when he polled ahead by a few points.

[Bikewer]

I listen to the pundits all day long. It certainly seems the Republicans are grim...

As noted, McCain (despite attempts to distance himself) still comes across as Bush-lite, and I think the country is in the mood for serious change.
Unless all the insurgents in Iraq surrender and settle down into a nice, pleasant democracy, Bin Laden comes down out of the hills and begs forgiveness, and the price of gas drops to a dollar a gallon....

[TheJim]

It is hard right now to know what exactly will be the large issues of the campaign come Sept and Oct but as things stand right now it seems like an uphill battle for McCain. As David already said, Obama will have a huge advantage with Money and grass-root support. One huge issue that David did not mention is the increase in Democratic registration where the last cycle was about even this year Dems are 5 pts higher iirc. Another issue for McCain is Barr. Barr might be able to pull enough support in western states that forces McCain to spend time and money on what should be sure bets such as Alaska.

I am of the belief that this election is for Obama's to lose. The ways he can lose are for the Wright situation to still be a front line issue in the fall, for the Republicans to frame him, selecting a VP that will draw out turnout on the right, or for Obama to do something that drives down Dem turnout. At this point I doubt that the Republicans will be able to frame Obama. The Obama team might have the quickest response team I have seen in American politics. The party f-u that will depress Obama turnout is just as likely if not more so for McCain and it is hard for me to see if he has not done something so far in this primary (and yes, i don't buy any polls showing Clinton supporters jumping). Obama's biggest problem as of right now that I can see is Wright but i have a feeling this will be a story that will have voter fatigue before the end of the summer.

[DavidJames]

Not only can he, but I'm beginning to think he will and do so with ease although the polls will, up until the end, show it close.

Yes, this is very cynical, but I think once people get behind the current, in private, there will be a huge chunk of people who will be simply unwilling to pull the lever for a women or African American.

[moon1969]

If George W. Bush could win twice then McCain can win.

[ronpaulisright]

No He can't. But it doesn't matter.

[kallsop]

Current polls are not good predictors of what happens in November. I say it's a wide open race and you just never know what will make an impression on the wishy washy swing voters. McCain is a known quantity, unfortunately, and Obama could soar or sink.

Obama's implicit message of "change can't be any worse than what we have now" has some merit given that Bush's approval numbers are almost as low as the democrat majority Congress, but McCain is not a Bush clone and he has a record of bipartisanship so I don't think that's a winning strategy especially with the bitter gun toting religious kooks that Obama has to win over. Obama needs the racist dixiecrat vote and he doesn't have it yet. His could help himself a lot if he chooses a gun totin' redneck for VP.

There's no point in talking about Hillary is there? The media have decided the race is over and are already shifting their sights to McCain.

We'll see the campaign strategies evolving in the next months and both candidates have opportunities to score. I well remember that "genius" Al Gore was supposed to be an unbelievably good debater and was going to run all over Bush. He tanked big time. Kerry just never got any momentum and his choice to run as a war hero backfired on him big time. McAmnesty has lots of holes and the media will have no problem picking away at them. Obama is still a somewhat unknown quantity and a few more Wright magnitude blunders could sink him.

Bring it on! It should be fun few months.

[Denver]

It seems to me, based on your data, and also on the results of the last congressional elections, that the electorate is steadily removing republican control from Washington. I would expect that will continue through this November.

[dirtywick]

McCain is going to be labelled "four more years of Bush". Fair or not, it's going to kill him, and on top of that I'd be surprised if he can shake it. He's a Republican, Bush is a Republican, to a lot of people it's that simple, and you know it's going to be harped on.

Doesn't mean he can't win, November is a long ways away. Plus the way the Democrats messed up Florida and Michigan (listen, I really don't care whether you think it was right or not, it pissed off a lot of people) is going to be easy to exploit, especially since Obama didn't want them counted. He'll have a hard time in those states.

But the Bush hatred is probably the biggest obstacle for McCain.

[The Atheist]

So it looks to me like there's a 60 - 70% chance Obama will be the next President.

Am I missing anything? Do the articles linked above seem to miss anything?

Hatred?

I'm watching from afar, but I can't say I've ever seen the level of outright hatred spewed over a candidate as I have with Obama. I'll also admit that could be selective memory, so remind me if I'm wrong.

Racism?

Racism is a powerful force. I don't mean the Stormfront kind of nonsense, but that inbuilt "birds of a feather" racism where the choice between a black man and a white man will always be whitey - or vice versa, but obviously there are more whiteys than darkies in USA.

Yes, this is very cynical, but I think once people get behind the current, in private, there will be a huge chunk of people who will be simply unwilling to pull the lever for a women or African American.

I've been saying that for well over six months now. I have crow all ready to eat, but it's still in the freezer.

[Cleon]

Here's what I think.

McCain is like Bob Dole in 96; the Republicans know he's not going to win, but they're throwing him out there as a sacrificial lamb.

However...

I have long said that it's a bad idea to underestimate the Democrats' ability to seize defeat from the jaws of victory. 2004 should have been a pushover, yet they picked the single most unappealing candidate they could--a guy who couldn't even decide if he was for the war or against it. The best you could say about Kerry is that "he's not George Bush" (which is mainly the reason he got the votes that he did). Well, my pet rabbit is not only not George Bush, but she's a lot cuter, too. Vote Chainsaw the Bunny Rabbit!

So yes, McCain can win, but I don't think the Republicans (including McCain himself) think it's likely. Which is not to say they won't try, or take advantage of the holes the Democrats dig for themselves.

[Cleon]

I'm watching from afar, but I can't say I've ever seen the level of outright hatred spewed over a candidate as I have with Obama. I'll also admit that could be selective memory, so remind me if I'm wrong.

Uh, George Bush's predecessor comes to mind. Clinton was threatened with assassination by a Senator, had a conservative legal outfit (Judicial Watch) try to throw every legal book at him from accusations of rape to real estate fraud, and eventually impeached.

[fuelair]

Current polls are not good predictors of what happens in November. I say it's a wide open race and you just never know what will make an impression on the wishy washy swing voters. McCain is a known quantity, unfortunately, and Obama could soar or sink.

Obama's implicit message of "change can't be any worse than what we have now" has some merit given that Bush's approval numbers are almost as low as the democrat majority Congress, . The problem with that is stupidity on the part of some of the public. A simple majority (of ONE) simply does not let the democrats actually do much of anything. They need a decent (Republicker blocker) majority so that they can pass our legislation. AND overide any veto trash boy can put out. We do not have that - though I have hopes it will occur.

[Tricky]

Here's what I think.

McCain is like Bob Dole in 96; the Republicans know he's not going to win, but they're throwing him out there as a sacrificial lamb.

However...

I have long said that it's a bad idea to underestimate the Democrats' ability to seize defeat from the jaws of victory. 2004 should have been a pushover, yet they picked the single most unappealing candidate they could--a guy who couldn't even decide if he was for the war or against it. The best you could say about Kerry is that "he's not George Bush" (which is mainly the reason he got the votes that he did). Well, my pet rabbit is not only not George Bush, but she's a lot cuter, too. Vote Chainsaw the Bunny Rabbit!

So yes, McCain can win, but I don't think the Republicans (including McCain himself) think it's likely. Which is not to say they won't try, or take advantage of the holes the Democrats dig for themselves.
I agree. Obama has a tremendous advantage, but I've learned never to underestimate the Republican Slime Machine. Who would have thought that they could turn Kerry's war service and decorations into a personal attack? That was masterful, especially considering that their own candidate was an obvious chickenhawk with a military record that was certainly not decorated and barely evidenced.

And I remember the "Willie Horton" thing that Bush Sr. pulled on Dukakis. That was so effective and so very sleazy. It really set the bar for gutter politics. I have to say that Democrats have never been able to mount a successful mudslinging attack in spite of the material they've been given to work with.

This is why it is popularly percieved that in general, Democrats are well-meaning bumblers, while Republicans are organized and effective sleazeballs. The point can be well made that it is better to have organized and effective people in the government, but as the events of the last 7+ years show, their effectiveness at campaigning does not translate to their effectiveness at administering the office. Only the sleaze is a constant.

[Texas]

Hatred?

I'm watching from afar, but I can't say I've ever seen the level of outright hatred spewed over a candidate as I have with Obama. I'll also admit that could be selective memory, so remind me if I'm wrong.



I would remind you of Abraham Lincoln, FDR, LBJ, Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and GWB. Presidential politics has always been hateful but it has taken a new tone since the fall of Nixon. Ronald Reagan was portrayed as a madman by democrats for his stance on the Cold War and economics. The Republicans impeached Clinton as payback for Nixon and the Democrats are driven to absolute madness by GW Bush. The battle lines have been drawn for many years and it is getting worse. This election will be very close and it will be very divisive.

[Texas]

And I remember the "Willie Horton" thing that Bush Sr. pulled on Dukakis. That was so effective and so very sleazy. It really set the bar for gutter politics. I have to say that Democrats have never been able to mount a successful mudslinging attack in spite of the material they've been given to work with.

.

Al Gore was the first to bring up the case of Wille Horton against Dukakis in a primary debate. He only used the case description but not the name.
The name was known immediately by local reporters covering the debate since the case was so notorious and they published details after the debate. It was then picked up by the GOP in the general election.

[Puppycow]

I think the only thing we can predict with fairly high confidence at this point is that either McCain or Obama will probably be the 44th president. McCain absolutely can win. My best guess at this point is that it will be a close election that could go either way, but events we can't predict may have a big effect on the outcome.

[The Atheist]

Uh, George Bush's predecessor comes to mind. Clinton was threatened with assassination by a Senator, had a conservative legal outfit (Judicial Watch) try to throw every legal book at him from accusations of rape to real estate fraud, and eventually impeached.

I would remind you of Abraham Lincoln, FDR, LBJ, Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and GWB. Presidential politics has always been hateful but it has taken a new tone since the fall of Nixon. Ronald Reagan was portrayed as a madman by democrats for his stance on the Cold War and economics. The Republicans impeached Clinton as payback for Nixon and the Democrats are driven to absolute madness by GW Bush. The battle lines have been drawn for many years and it is getting worse. This election will be very close and it will be very divisive.

Thanks for the info, guys.

I take it these comments all relate to things which happened during the nomination process?

[godofpie]

http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/editorblog/062
I wanted to post the video of The Daily Show with Jon Stewart asking the question but it has been taken down. When I saw this the other night on TDS, it gave me chills because I think it could work. I am an unabashed Obama supporter, but if I have heard it once, I've heard it 100 times "If that GD N***** gets elected the country's going to hell in a hand basket!" I am ashamed to say that these are my neighbors and customers (if black people only new the kind of crap that white trash talk behind their back). I think if McCain chooses Hillary for his VP that he could be a force to be reckoned with. I am afraid that there are a lot of southern white DEMS that just won't vote for a black man. I hope I am wrong.
ETA found the link. It is at 6 minutes.
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/editorblog/062

[Iamme]

These two women on tv the other night (one black, one white), are going to vote for McCain if Hillary loses. They are members of this women's coalition - and by hook or crook, if Hillary does not get the nod, then they are going to try to convince all the women in the nation to unite and vote for McCain.

But will they really, come November?

This is all so much fun. I have turned into this Fox-News junkie for hours on end at night. I can't get enough of all this! I'd rather watch all this than a movie even.

[Texas]

Thanks for the info, guys.

I take it these comments all relate to things which happened during the nomination process?
Good point. No the democratic primary is the strangest I have ever seen. If a Republican said the things Hillary and Obama are saying about each other the media would have a nervous breakdown. I have seen a lot of elections and I have never seen a party as divided as the Dems are this time.

[Iamme]

I have seen a lot of elections and I have never seen a party as divided as the Dems are this time.

You've never seen a black man vs. a white woman before, either.

[Tricky]

These two women on tv the other night (one black, one white), are going to vote for McCain if Hillary loses. They are members of this women's coalition - and by hook or crook, if Hillary does not get the nod, then they are going to try to convince all the women in the nation to unite and vote for McCain.

But will they really, come November?
I doubt they will. Once Hillary finally concedes, I expect that she will throw the whole weight of her political machine behind Obama. She will make speeches for him and emphasize how much different McCain is from either her or Barak. She will convince the women (and others) who make such threats that such spitefulness would harm their cause greatly. At least she will if she's smart, which I think she is.

That's the thing about the American political system. People have short memories. Remember a few months ago when all the evangelicals said they would stay home rather than vote for McCain? Why don't you hear anything about that now? Because they've forgotten, that's why. They've moved on and gotten involved with the new issues.

In some ways, I hate that our US political system is so shallow and capricious. In other ways, it makes me very grateful that we don't live in a place where grudges become wars and go on for centuries.

[Policenaut]

Well we won't have to choose between a giant douche and a turd sandwich this year so that's a plus. At the very least I'm looking forward to some good debates.

[The Atheist]

I doubt they will. Once Hillary finally concedes, I expect that she will throw the whole weight of her political machine behind Obama.

I hope so, but will believe it when I see it.

[corplinx]

Can McCain win?

No.

[Puppycow]

Well we won't have to choose between a giant douche and a turd sandwich this year so that's a plus. At the very least I'm looking forward to some good debates.

Yeah. Either one will be an improvement. I'll be OK with it whichever one wins, although I'm more excited by the possibility of the first African-American president than by the 44th white male president. I prefer McCain on trade, Obama on national health care and ending the Iraq war ASAP. The Farm Bill and government pork is small potatoes compared to the waste of the Iraq war.

[chipmunk stew]

McCain has a shot if he picks Sarah Palin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) for VP.

[CptColumbo]

McCain has a shot if he picks Sarah Palin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) for VP.
He already picked Dwight Schrute on "The Daily Show."

If he gets elected Jack Bauer will be Sec. Def.

[Cleon]

McCain has a shot if he picks Sarah Palin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) for VP.

I'd vote for him if he picked Michael.

[plumjam]

Can McCain win?

No. Alas, for McCain, the oven chips are down.

[novice skeptic]

And I remember the "Willie Horton" thing that Bush Sr. pulled on Dukakis. That was so effective and so very sleazy. It really set the bar for gutter politics. I have to say that Democrats have never been able to mount a successful mudslinging attack in spite of the material they've been given to work with.


You do know that it was Al Gore, a Democrat, who used Willie Horton against Dukakis first (nationally, locally in Massachusetts it had been a controversy for quite awhile). Does that mean that Democrats have "really set the bar for gutter politics"?

[EBU]

You do know that it was Al Gore, a Democrat, who used Willie Horton against Dukakis first (nationally, locally in Massachusetts it had been a controversy for quite awhile). Does that mean that Democrats have "really set the bar for gutter politics"?

Al Gore brough up "weekend passes for criminals" once, in a debate with Dukakis, suggesting that they were a bad idea. But he never mentioned the name Willie Horton nor used his image.

[corplinx]

And I remember the "Willie Horton" thing that Bush Sr. pulled on Dukakis. That was so effective and so very sleazy. It really set the bar for gutter politics.


A. It wasn't sleazy.
B. Bush Sr.'s ad didnt focus on Horton's color
C. This is one of the most popular myths of that election cycle, don't fall for it.

The Willie Horton issue was one of Bush Jr. level arrogance. Other states made weekend furloughs but Massachusetts was even more liberal furloughing scum like Willie Horton. Predictably, he invaded someone's home, tortured them, then tortured and raped their wife when they came home.

When Dukakis was called on to account for his furlough program releasing truly dangerous people like Horton, he acted arrogant about it. He refused to meet with the victims. He acted like a butthole.

However, the media at that time was pretty uniform in message and when the Bush Sr. ads ran all they could talk about was how it was race baiting (even though the ad that showed Horton's face in detail was by a different group).

You got duped. Its okay though. There was a monolithic media at that time and they pretty much uniformly got the story wrong.

[Brainster]

I think that the odds are probably right at about 60% Obama, 40% McCain, as InTrade currently has it. The Republicans would be in much worse shape if they had nominated anybody other than McCain, though; that maverick label is not going to hurt him.

On the other hand, the Salon article lays out pretty well how tough a row Obama has to hoe. He's going to lose Florida, which pretty much means he has to win Ohio and Pennsylvania or cobble together some unlikely combination of other states.

No Northern Democrat has won since 1960. Obama's color may work against him in many areas and he doesn't have a corresponding strength since blacks vote overwhelmingly for Democrats anyway. He should increase black turnout, certainly; the question is whether that turns any states from red to blue.

The youth vote? Puh-lease!

Overall, I'd say McCain should win easily, all other things being equal. Unfortunately for him, they are not equal. Can McCain win? Certainly. Will he win? It's a little worse than a coin toss.

[fuelair]

I doubt they will. Once Hillary finally concedes, I expect that she will throw the whole weight of her political machine behind Obama. She will make speeches for him and emphasize how much different McCain is from either her or Barak. She will convince the women (and others) who make such threats that such spitefulness would harm their cause greatly. At least she will if she's smart, which I think she is.

.She already started it in at least one interview the day after her W.Va. win that I saw at around 11:30 this AM.:)

[David Wong]

I agree McCain was the best candidate the Republicans could have run; he's a media favorite, like Obama.

I also agree that it will be a fairly close election; none of those factors I mentioned above spell a 40-10 victory.

But still, when choosing sides between Obama and McCain I suspect the news media will be biased toward Obama.

And any loss of turnout due to bitter Hillary supporters on Obama's side, will be equaled by loss of evangelical turnout on McCain's side. Loss of turnout from racists will be offset by what should be massive turnout from the black vote. Etc.

If I've read those articles right, every disadvantage of Obama's is offset by an equal disadvantage on McCain's side.

It seems to me that the massive fund raising advantage is what tips the scales.

On a personal note, I can say this is the first election of my life where I'm not afraid of either candidate. I would have no problem with either one of these guys in the White House.

And that's good because my vote is moot anyway (I live in Illinois).

[JEROME DA GNOME]

McCain can win if the Dems choose Obama as the nominee. The racist White Democrats in States such as Pennsylvania and Ohio are not going to vote for a Black man.

[Iamme]

People have short memories. ..... Remember a few months ago when all the evangelicals said they would stay home rather than vote for McCain? Why don't you hear anything about that now? Because they've forgotten, that's why.

I've heard the same thing said as to why women keep getting pregnant even though giving birth is so painful (so women claim).

[Iamme]

On a personal note, I can say this is the first election of my life where I'm not afraid of either candidate. I would have no problem with either one of these guys in the White House.



So why do you think Obama is even qualified to even be vying for President? He has never ran anything. He has said knee jerk things that experienced people with world affairs say can't work...and we buy into the idealism.

Couldn't just ANYone be chosen then? Perhaps the office of President is not as big a deal as hiring the right cabinet and having your party be the majority in Congress and the Senate, if you buy into the President is some figurehead?

Why do you accept Obama? On what grounds exactly? Promises? Has he done things in the Senate (and enough of it?) where you have seen indications that what he does is correct? That he is honest? Moral? What exactly? Or what? Have you looked into if he thinks others are beneath him (especially "sweetie" women?) Or are you hypnotized by idealogy, that I can spew myself, with the best of them.

Bush ran Texas.

Clinton Bill ran Arkansas, with Hillary I'm sure being with him a lot on the trail, and hearing all the ins and outs of things.

McCain has more years/experience. With that comes more decision making to weigh out, and with which to judge him on his longer record, and meeting with more important people most likely.

[novice skeptic]

When Dukakis was called on to account for his furlough program releasing truly dangerous people like Horton, he acted arrogant about it. He refused to meet with the victims. He acted like a butthole.


Indeed. From Boston Globe column by Jeff Jacoby:

"If Dukakis ever uttered a word of sympathy for Clifford and Angela Barnes, it is not recorded. When asked if he would be willing to meet with them, he was disdainful. ''I don't see any particular value in meeting with people. I'm satisfied we have the kind of furlough policy we should have.'' He was no less cold when a group of women whose children had been murdered pleaded with him to stop freeing killers. ''If you don't like the system, you can change it,'' Dukakis snapped."

Perhaps those quotes were taken out of context, but it's hard to imagine a context where they would seem sensitive and understanding (though the loaded use of the verb "snapped" is questionable).

I was a college student working as a summer intern in the Mass. State House during the summer of 1988, and I can tell you EVERYONE there knew about Dukakis and Horton well before any other candidate used it. There were a lot of people complaining about it (whether it was Dukakis' fault or not). Especially in light of the reputation Dukakis' judicial nominations have within the state. One would never accuse him of being tough on crime.

[Foolmewunz]

A. It wasn't sleazy.
B. Bush Sr.'s ad didnt focus on Horton's color
C. This is one of the most popular myths of that election cycle, don't fall for it.

The Willie Horton issue was one of Bush Jr. level arrogance. Other states made weekend furloughs but Massachusetts was even more liberal furloughing scum like Willie Horton. Predictably, he invaded someone's home, tortured them, then tortured and raped their wife when they came home.

When Dukakis was called on to account for his furlough program releasing truly dangerous people like Horton, he acted arrogant about it. He refused to meet with the victims. He acted like a butthole.

However, the media at that time was pretty uniform in message and when the Bush Sr. ads ran all they could talk about was how it was race baiting (even though the ad that showed Horton's face in detail was by a different group).

You got duped. Its okay though. There was a monolithic media at that time and they pretty much uniformly got the story wrong.

While the ads didn't say outright, "Look at this murdering black scumbag that Dukakis let out of jail", they didn't have to. They have that lovely picture. Please don't say that there was no focus on Horton's blackness.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC9j6Wfdq3o

Yes, I know this was produced by a PAC, but the PACs are always easy to blame when you let them be the stalking horse for your more reprehensible attacks.

[corplinx]

Yes, I know this was produced by a PAC

Thanks.

[David Wong]

75,000 turn out to hear Obama speak (http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/18/record_obama_crowd_the_size_of.html).

That's in Portland, Oregon. Has that ever happened before with a politician?

There's a picture of this on the front page of Drudge right now.

[TriskettheKid]

So why do you think Obama is even qualified to even be vying for President? He has never ran anything. He has said knee jerk things that experienced people with world affairs say can't work...and we buy into the idealism.

Couldn't just ANYone be chosen then? Perhaps the office of President is not as big a deal as hiring the right cabinet and having your party be the majority in Congress and the Senate, if you buy into the President is some figurehead?

Why do you accept Obama? On what grounds exactly? Promises? Has he done things in the Senate (and enough of it?) where you have seen indications that what he does is correct? That he is honest? Moral? What exactly? Or what? Have you looked into if he thinks others are beneath him (especially "sweetie" women?) Or are you hypnotized by idealogy, that I can spew myself, with the best of them.

Bush ran Texas.

Clinton Bill ran Arkansas, with Hillary I'm sure being with him a lot on the trail, and hearing all the ins and outs of things.

McCain has more years/experience. With that comes more decision making to weigh out, and with which to judge him on his longer record, and meeting with more important people most likely.

Excuse me, but there's a James Buchanan asking to speak to you.

Something about experience and how it really helped him when he was President.

Incidentally, there's an Abraham Lincoln asking to speak to you, too. It also has to do with experience and being President.

Sounds pretty important.

[corplinx]

75,000 turn out to hear Obama speak (http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/18/record_obama_crowd_the_size_of.html).


I am in awe and scared at the same time.

[Brainster]

I agree McCain was the best candidate the Republicans could have run; he's a media favorite, like Obama.

I also agree that it will be a fairly close election; none of those factors I mentioned above spell a 40-10 victory.

But still, when choosing sides between Obama and McCain I suspect the news media will be biased toward Obama.

That's a default position that's already factored into the race. Will they be more partisan than in the past? I don't think that's actually possible. And McCain is genuinely liked by the media, so I think that the bias against the Republican candidate will be less than usual (although the bias towards the Democrat may be excessive).

[David Wong]

Well, on top of the usual lefty bias in the news media, you've got the fact that they simply think Obama is a better story. You saw that dynamic in the Hillary vs. Obama contest. Between the old-school insider and the young rising rock-star guy, it's no secret who the media would rather cover.

Same as in 1992, the news media hammered the recession story throughout the campaign, but the moment Clinton was sworn in, all mention of it vanished. It was a new day in America, a young, energetic leader was here to rescue us.

[Policenaut]

I am in awe and scared at the same time.

They all wanted to be anointed by the hand of the next savior. People are really going crazy about Obama and not in a good way. It's more like a cult than a campaign. I live in a college town and every time I go out to eat all anyone is talking about is how Obama is just so super and going to fix everything wrong in the world. What is really scary is the prospect of a democrat president, democrat controlled congress, and democrat controlled senate that is filibuster-proof. The BEP better start working overtime or else they won't be able to print enough money to throw at the democrats.

[David Wong]

I am in awe and scared at the same time.

http://johndiesattheend.com/obamacrowd.jpg

[Pookster]

It's all going to come down to who can get more of their supporters butts to the polls in November. It always has. And in this, the Dems have an advantage in numbers. If the Democrats had someone a little more inspiring than Kerry in 2004, Bush wouldn't be President today. Even still, Kerry almost had an unprecedented win -- beating an incumbent wartime President.

If nothing major changes the dynamics between now and November, it will be a very close electoral vote. McCain could very well squeeze it out, but he's going to have to motivate, more or less, the same voters that went to the polls for Bush (especially the evangelicals) to get off their butts on election day. Obama will have to do the same with typically Democratic supporters as well. Both are going to have issues with certain important core party groups to overcome (Obama - working class whites, McCain - evangelicals). Time will tell as to who can inspire the best.

As for the race issue for Obama, I think this could be a muted issue by November. A lot will depend on how concerned people are about economic issues, and with who they feel the most promise for their future. People generally do vote for who threatens their wallet the least. And if Obama can convince people that things such as the Iraq war have hurt the economy, then the issue of race becomes less important. McCain really doesn't have much working in his favor right now to stir up the evangelicals without possibly alienating a number of independents he will need to win with. Again, time will tell though.

[Darth Rotor]

You've never seen a black man vs. a white woman before, either.
Sure I have: Behind the Green Door.

I doubt they will. Once Hillary finally concedes, I expect that she will throw the whole weight of her political machine behind Obama.
That was ungentlemanly, Tricky, to bring her weight into this. Beware of an attack from ConspiRaider for trash talking his political goddess. :D
She will make speeches for him and emphasize how much different McCain is from either her or Barak. She will convince the women (and others) who make such threats that such spitefulness would harm their cause greatly. At least she will if she's smart, which I think she is.
I think she will do just as you say, since the point is to win, and for her win means a defeat of the dreaded GOP and Vast Right Wing Conspiracy.
That's the thing about the American political system. People have short memories. Remember a few months ago when all the evangelicals said they would stay home rather than vote for McCain? Why don't you hear anything about that now? Because they've forgotten, that's why. They've moved on and gotten involved with the new issues.
Yep.
In some ways, I hate that our US political system is so shallow and capricious. In other ways, it makes me very grateful that we don't live in a place where grudges become wars and go on for centuries.
They don't? :confused:

I recall mudflaps and bumper stickers, in the 1970's in Virginia, that displayed a Yosemite Sam looking cartoon critter (in CSA gray and with a Stars and Bars hat) and the caption

Forget Hell!

DR

[Cleon]

I recall mudflaps and bumper stickers, in the 1970's in Virginia, that displayed a Yosemite Sam looking cartoon critter (in CSA gray and with a Stars and Bars hat) and the caption

Forget Hell!


I still see those around, believe it or not.

[mortimer]

While the ads didn't say outright, "Look at this murdering black scumbag that Dukakis let out of jail", they didn't have to. They have that lovely picture. Please don't say that there was no focus on Horton's blackness.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EC9j6Wfdq3o

Yes, I know this was produced by a PAC, but the PACs are always easy to blame when you let them be the stalking horse for your more reprehensible attacks.

And here's the actual Bush campaign ad.

-lFk78R_qYM

How do you propose campaigns put a stop to PAC ads such as the one you posted?

[JEROME DA GNOME]

How do you propose campaigns put a stop to PAC ads such as the one you posted?

We could just let the government decide what political speech should be allowed.


VOTE McCAIN!!!

[JEROME DA GNOME]

I still see those around, believe it or not.

You do live in Georgia. :D

[Cleon]

You do live in Georgia. :D

Yes. Yes, I do.

[mortimer]

We could just let the government decide what political speech should be allowed.


VOTE McCAIN!!!
Is the latter statement supposed to follow from the former somehow?

[JEROME DA GNOME]

Is the latter statement supposed to follow from the former somehow?

Uhh, yea.

Where you unaware that McCain put his name as a headline on law which restricts political speech?

[mortimer]

Uhh, yea.

Where you unaware that McCain put his name as a headline on law which restricts political speech?
I am quite unaware of such a law. Please provide evidence.

[punchdrunk]

What might ultimately prevent McCain from reaching the White House is his own position on campaign financing:

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90612823

[JEROME DA GNOME]

I am quite unaware of such a law. Please provide evidence.

Really? :boggled:


O.K.
McCain–Feingold Act (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bipartisan_Campaign_Reform_Act)

Wiki will be a good starting point. I would recommend further research.

[David Wong]

I fully admit that pre-Memorial Day polls are a terrible predictor of who will win in November, the real campaign hasn't even started yet.

That said, here's where it stands at the moment:

Gallup has Obama up by 3 (http://www.gallup.com/poll/107419/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Maintains-Large-Lead-Over-Clinton.aspx) on McCain.

Reuters/Zogby has Obama up by 8 (http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2034087120080521).

It's even closer than that once you start breaking down the battleground states we've all been talking about. Most recent polls:

Michigan: McCain up by 1 (http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/michigan/michigan_toplines_may_7_2008).

Pennsylvania: Obama up by 8 (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=162d4baa-59af-4ec5-9d9b-eb6e658e86c5).

Ohio: McCain up by 1 (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election).

Florida: McCain up by 1 (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1173).

Some of those polls are like 3 weeks old, so take them with a grain of salt.