Rock paper scissors

[Pakaran]

I have one friend that I can almost always beat at rock paper scissors, or at least tie. I haven't looked at it statistically, but we're talking like I win, or win after a series of ties, like 4 out of 5 games.

He swears it's telepathy, but as an agnostic I don't like that idea. I'm sure I'm not "hanging back" to see his gesture, because I still win when I turn my back and gesture over my shoulder, or as I turn around, with my eyes closed, etc.

I think I just unconsciously know his strategy. Any other suggestions?

[gnome]

Originally posted by Pakaran
I have one friend that I can almost always beat at rock paper scissors, or at least tie. I haven't looked at it statistically, but we're talking like I win, or win after a series of ties, like 4 out of 5 games.

He swears it's telepathy, but as an agnostic I don't like that idea. I'm sure I'm not "hanging back" to see his gesture, because I still win when I turn my back and gesture over my shoulder, or as I turn around, with my eyes closed, etc.

I think I just unconsciously know his strategy. Any other suggestions?

RPS is a mental game that is far from random, especially in a series. I think that you just have an intuition of how your friend tends to react to previous rounds, and so forth.

Check out http://www.worldrps.com/

Their site just keeps getting more and more amusing. -- Don't miss the FAQ's.

Though, you could test the telepathy claim by having him select his moves randomly, say by rolling a 6-sided die with his back turned... 1-2 = Rock, 3-4=Paper, 5-6=Scissors...

[Jethro]

My guess would be a combination of two things:

You are probably correct in that you have unconciously picked up on his pattern.

Your winning is probably not as good as you think.

[whitefork]

Read Poe:
I knew one about eight years of age, whose success at guessing in the game of 'even and odd' attracted universal admiration. This game is simple, and is played with marbles. One player holds in his hand a number of these toys, and demands of another whether that number is even or odd. If the guess is right, the guesser wins one; if wrong, he loses one. The boy to whom I allude won all the marbles of the school. Of course he had some principle of guessing; and this lay in mere observation and admeasurement of the astuteness of his opponents. For example, an arrant simpleton is his opponent, and, holding up his closed hand, asks, 'are they even or odd?' Our schoolboy replies, 'odd,' and loses; but upon the second trial he wins, for he then says to himself, the simpleton had them even upon the first trial, and his amount of cunning is just sufficient to make him have them odd upon the second; I will therefore guess odd'; --he guesses odd, and wins. Now, with a simpleton a degree above the first, he would have reasoned thus: 'This fellow finds that in the first instance I guessed odd, and, in the second, he will propose to himself upon the first impulse, a simple variation from even to odd, as did the first simpleton; but then a second thought will suggest that this is too simple a variation, and finally he will decide upon putting it even as before. I will therefore guess even' guesses even, and wins. Now this mode of reasoning in the schoolboy, whom his fellows termed "lucky," --what, in its last analysis, is it?"

"It is merely," I said, "an identification of the reasoner's intellect with that of his opponent."

[ceptimus]

Lisa: Look, there's only one way to settle this Rock-Paper-Scissors.
Lisa's Brain: Poor predictable Bart. Always picks rock.
Bart's Brain: Good ol' rock. Nothin' beats that!

(Bart shows rock, Lisa shows paper)

Bart: Doh!

- The Simpsons (Episode "The Front")

[teddosan]

Gnome is exactly right. This is not just a random game. There is actually a computer competition held each year for RPS (they call it RoShamBo...) Anyways, there seems to always be at least one person who thinks that he will win by employing the most "random" algorithm, (Basically try to put as much entropy into the system as possible) but it never works. That kind of program always (as expected) finishes in the middle of the pack. It cannot win enough to accrue the amount of points needed to win the whole competition. If EVERYONE submitted just a random program, then it would be a different story, but most programs use some sort of logical prediction algorithm; some are better than others, and the bad ones finish below random and the good ones finish above. Our minds are much more like the non-random programs. As hard as you might try, it is literally IMPOSSIBLE for you to choose completely at random. There are, at the very least, sub-concious items affecting your decision. (And, your partner's...)
Here is a link to that RoShamBo competition... http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~darse/rsbpc.html

[reprise]

Derren Brown does a great trick with this. He even gets the audience to tell him whether he has to win or lose for the nominated number of rounds against randomly chosen opponents.

[Pakaran]

Thanks for the input everyone.

Now that I think about it, I think my friend has a strong tendency to do the throw that would beat my previous throw - or to do the third throw when he feels he's losing many times in a row.

[Yahweh]

I'll demonstrate the supposed "randominity" of the human mind.

Pick a number between 1 and 4...

Highlight to reveal the answer:
<div style="background:#000000">I bet you picked the number "3" didnt you. In psychological testing, a person will most likely choose the number 3 than the other numbers. I know that teachers are taught this fact in college, I also happen to know they design their own tests with this fact in mind (because students are more inclined to "randomly" choose the letter "C" out of 4 possible choices). Dont think the people who write the ACT tests dont know this either.

Oh yeah, and for whatever reason, when asked to choose a random number between 1 and 1000, they are most likely going to choose the number "2".</div>

I must be psychic :D.

[Pakaran]

Thanks Yahweh. I think I can now point out to my friend what's going on.

On a random sidenote (pun unintended) I have absolute aka perfect pitch, and more than one person has appeared to think that it's paranormal.

This especially happened in high school when I could tell more experienced insturmentalists (sp?) that their instruments were out of tune, often they didn't believe me until they checked against the piano.

I mean, I know the gift is uncommon, but it's not that rare that folks should be unaware of it - never mind think it's somehow mystical. Magical thinking is the problem, IMHO.

[Pakaran]

Funny thought - should I start a psychic business "healing" out-of-tune instruments? I could do some doubletalk about "unique talents" etc so I don't get sued. ;)

[WildCat]

Originally posted by teddosan
There is actually a computer competition held each year for RPS (they call it RoShamBo...)
That's not what RoShamBo (http://sounds.wavcentral.com/televis/southpark/roshambo.mp3) is! :D

[Ratman_tf]

Originally posted by Yahweh
I'll demonstrate the supposed "randominity" of the human mind.

Pick a number between 1 and 4...

I must be psychic :D.

Wrong! I picked 1! But I've seen number guessing predictions like that before. :)

[Kilted_Canuck]

Pakaran, you just may have an extremely good tonal hearing. Its very uncommon, but not unheard of. Some people can differentiate any musical note without hearing anything as a basis to tune it from. I believe the lead singer from the band "The Tea Party" is one of these individuals.

[Pakaran]

Originally posted by Kilted_Canuck
Pakaran, you just may have an extremely good tonal hearing. Its very uncommon, but not unheard of. Some people can differentiate any musical note without hearing anything as a basis to tune it from. I believe the lead singer from the band "The Tea Party" is one of these individuals.

I'm almost certain I have absolute pitch. I can tune my violin better without a reference than my teacher can on her first attempt doing it TO a reference (like a piano).

I haven't learned the names of the notes, but only because I'm not that serious about music - and things like a cappello do not sound musical to me, because they're not the tones I know.

That said - absolute/perfect pitch or not, this is NOT paranormal, and anyone who thinks it is is guilty of magical thinking.

[Jeff Corey]

Originally posted by teddosan
As hard as you might try, it is literally IMPOSSIBLE for you to choose completely at random.

True. There's a demonstration where you ask a volunteer to write a random sequence qf 100 heads and taiils that you will attempt to predict, above chance .
Feedback is key here.The rule is to switch predictions if you're right and stick if wrong.
If you start with "heads" and switch to "Tails" if you are right, but stick with "Heads" if you are wrong, in all probability, you will score 64 or better.

There are, at the very least, sub-concious items affecting your decision.


That, I'll quibble about. No one ever postulated a falsifiable theory that included an unconscious or subconscious thing.

[Cynical]

Rock Paper Scissors?!

Good lord, how OLD are you clowns? I knew that ol' Crow was a senior citizen, but I thought he was the only one. Evidently a good many of you are old geezers.

Ask any kid what Rock Paper Scissors is. They'll have no clue. Furthermore, if you tell them, they'll dismiss it as stupid and boring.;)