(Ex CIA) Ray McGovern warns of imminent false flag attack

[metamars]

http://www.radiodujour.com/people/mcgovern_ray/mp3/20080625_alexjones_raymcgovern.mp3

"Imminent" actually means over the next 2 months.

The scenario he posits is Israel dressing up a ship to look like it's Iranian, and then sinking a US destroyer. Personally, I think a false flag operation of this type is more likely to involve US operatives. I mean, how many Israeli boats do you hear about in the Persian Gulf? I don't go fishing there, so maybe there's lots of them, but I've never heard of any.

What I'd like to know is if the war gamers who are gaming attacks on Iran have considered what happens if the Iranians respond via their Hezbollah allies, giving them nuclear materials to make, in effect, dirty rockets and missiles? If these come flying into Israel, causing a rash of birth defects, will Israelis be eager to reproduce? What, then, happens to Israel? Depopulating Israel may not concern US war gamers, but I'm sure the Israelis have a different perspective.

And what if dirty rockets become become established in terrorists' minds as a weapon of choice? Will dirty bombs be next, perhaps exploding in NYC? We've seen insurgents climb a learning curve wrt IEDs, which now also have seen a lot of use in Afghanistan. Do the war gamers ever worry about the 'lessons' that they are teaching their victims?

For a historical parallel, consider: The ancient Spartans were told by their great law giver, Lycurgus, not to have frequent campaigns against the same people, so that they not become proficient at warfare. This principle was ignored by the Spartan king Agesilaus, who had some sort of fixation on warring with Thebes. In the end, Thebes thrashed the Spartans so soundly at Leuctra (using an echelon formation that was unusual, at the time, and I believe, unknown to the Spartans), it spelled the end of Spartan dominance.

Besides all that, an attack on Iran may make it's central government disintegrate. While that may suite some war gamers or neocon lunatics, we can see from Iraq what sort of mess results when a state with no well functioning central authority nevertheless has lots of hidden weapons. With no central authority, how can ensuing factions with terrorism on their minds be suppressed? Dirty rockets that can't reach the US can still hit Israel from Lebanon. A central authority which doesn't exist can't be pressured to help suppress terrorism, or anything else.

BTW, Wayne Madsen is lately suggesting false flag ops by the Mossad in a Houston port is in the works, perhaps blowing up LNG ships.

[metamars]

Sorry, this should have been posted to the general Conspiracy forum. Moderator: please move it.

[SDC]

LNG? Lowest Nommon Gedominator? Give us a little help here.

Oh yeah. Mossad really is in the habit of bombing Texas. Uh huh.

[Blender Head]

So when August passes and nothing happens can I sleep better at night?

[SDC]

So when August passes and nothing happens can I sleep better at night?

Don't bet on it. Someone else will come along. Probably the Scots will invade the Llano Estacado.

[T.A.M.]

So when August passes and nothing happens can I sleep better at night?

No, but you will have yet another bit of evidence (like you needed any) that people like McGovern, and others of his ilk (he is a truther), are paranoid delusionacs.

TAM:)

[Blender Head]

These Truthers are worse than the Republicans at the expectations game.

[parky76]

Forgive me..but we heard the same warning last year..the year before that..and the year before that.

[OldTigerCub]

Ummmm....there hasn't been a recent increase of Mossad agents signing up for dancing lessons, has there? :duck:

[Blender Head]

Wasn't there supposed to be an attack on November 27th of last year?

[Hokulele]

If these come flying into Israel, causing a rash of birth defects, will Israelis be eager to reproduce? What, then, happens to Israel? Depopulating Israel may not concern US war gamers, but I'm sure the Israelis have a different perspective.


Umm, yeah. OK.

[fezzic]

Everyone has an opinion.

Some have the idea that they are predicting a future occurence.

Given enough predictions, there is a good chance of one of them coming true (fitting the actual event, at least to some degree).

As for the rest, when the prediction does not pan out, they go on making predictions because they are still convinced they are making a "valid" prediction of a future occurence.

Since they are not advising someone who has to make decisions based on what they are advised, there are no direct consequences to being wrong, so they continue.

[AZCat]

LNG? Lowest Nommon Gedominator? Give us a little help here.

Oh yeah. Mossad really is in the habit of bombing Texas. Uh huh.

LNG = Liquid Natural Gas.

[SDC]

Aha. Thanks, AZCat. It's hard enough to keep track of all the dastardly deeds of Mossad without having to deal with stray acronyms.

[AZCat]

Aha. Thanks, AZCat. It's hard enough to keep track of all the dastardly deeds of Mossad without having to deal with stray acronyms.

My pleasure. Anything to lessen the load. Weeding the genuine flags from the false ones takes quite a bit of time. You'd be surprised how many flags that appear genuine are not. The MLB logo is often abused, as are the other major sports and college logos. I'm not sure why the false flags are going to attack - maybe they're angry about the lack of benefits available for their kind. When was the last time you heard of a counterfeit flag being warrantied?

[parky76]

Ummmm....there hasn't been a recent increase of Mossad agents signing up for dancing lessons, has there? :duck:

i have noticed alot of jews doing the Horah in Bed-Stuy lately

[chillzero]

(Use the report function in future please :) )

[gumboot]

If I recall correctly at least one of Alex Jones' "predictions" never came true because "they" found out about AJ's prediction, realised he was on to them, and shut the whole thing down.

Apparently.

[defaultdotxbe]

If I recall correctly at least one of Alex Jones' "predictions" never came true because "they" found out about AJ's prediction, realised he was on to them, and shut the whole thing down.

Apparently.
of course, if he predicts something and it happens hes a genious, if he predicts something and it doesnt happen, hes a hero

[MG1962]

Wasn't there supposed to be an attack on November 27th of last year?

Well Robert Cade, the inventor of Gatoraid died - he was only 80 years old - so obviously it was not from natural causes :jaw-dropp

[moon1969]

AHH joos and Israel are involved againg. Well maybe Nashrallah and Hezbollah plus Hamas will do false flag attack and blame it on the joos???

[jaydeehess]

Wasn't there supposed to be war with Iran a few years ago that was to be initiated by a false flag op?

Every few months since sept 2001 we get the warnings from the woo-side that a FF op will be carried out 'soon', or 'by the end of....'(summer, fall, or the year)

Did no one ever get taught the story "The Boy Who Cried Wolf" after I was in school way-back-when?

[dudalb]

The really intresting think about the OP are the links at the bottom. More proof that Anti Semitism is no longer a Right Wing monopoly. In fact, that de facto Anti Semitism has become acceptable in certain militant left wing circles is one of the most disturbing developments of the past few years.

[theprestige]

I suspect that in the context of CTs, "false flag" is just another convenient twoofer excuse to ignore any evidence that undermines their irrational beliefs.

[metamars]

The really intresting think about the OP are the links at the bottom. More proof that Anti Semitism is no longer a Right Wing monopoly.

More proof that smear merchants and innuendo abound in online forums, and the anti-Semitic smear is not going out of style, anytime soon.

While there are doubtless anti-Xers (fill in the X) in any group of people, there seems to be little interest in doing in depth studies of CTers.

Then again, the anti-Semitic smear is such an all-time favorite, I'd want to know who did the research, and who paid for it, before I accepted any real research that may eventually show statistically significant anti-Semitism (or anything else, for that matter) amongst CT'ers. Such research, in order to be taken seriously by me, would have to select people from the general population, and not pretend that online personas cannot be easily faked, allowing highly motivated but unbalanced individuals to skew a 'sample', and that disinformation cannot be deliberately and insincerely injected, also.

[dudalb]

Yeah, it is just a coincidence that every Conspiracy Theory seems to have a high number of people who have "issues" with the Jews among it's adherents.

[parky76]

the funny thing about predicting false flag terror attacks, is that eventually, someday, there will be another terror attack in europe or the usa. then all the fruits and nuts can yell:

"see!!!..I told ya so!!!!!"

[Schmitt.]

Are they seriously cycling through everyone who'll just say anything so that all periods of time will be covered by someone claiming there's an imminent false flag attack? It's getting a bit silly at this point.

[Sizzler]

While the truth movement certainly has its fair share of yearly predictions, I don't necessarily think they are a product of the truth movement. These kinds of predictions occur in several other spheres of life. Economics and weather come to mind. So when is the "big one" supposed to hit again??

I think these kinds of predictions are more of a condition of the human mind.

I do personally hope the prediction in OP is wrong.

[gumboot]

These kinds of predictions occur in several other spheres of life. Economics and weather come to mind.


Economics and weather are both large, highly visible, easily measured, and constantly fluctuating systems. Predicting what the next likely fluctuation will be is a legitimate type of prediction. Scatter-gunning random isolated events that are part of a vague, poorly understood, nearly invisible and sporadic system (such as terrorism) is not.

[Foolmewunz]

of course, if he predicts something and it happens hes a genious, if he predicts something and it doesnt happen, hes a hero

Freely borrowed from his inspiration, the Televangelists, of course. (The only profession that lies as profusely as Alex.)

Evangelist: "If you send fifty dollars and pray with all your heart you can make the Mississippi River recede and save Iowa and Missouri."

He's got a win/win situation. If there are no floods, he's a born-again hero and they'll send even more money and prayer for his next cause. And if the river goes ahead an wipes out a few towns he can blame them for not praying hard enough (even though he collected a million bucks), so they should pray harder next time, ... and... uh... oh yea, ... Send more money!

[metamars]

Yeah, it is just a coincidence that every Conspiracy Theory seems to have a high number of people who have "issues" with the Jews among it's adherents.

Your eagerness to, as Barrie Zwicker would say, climb up the "abstraction ladder", (and thus conflate murderous and/or slanderous practices of a government with the people comprising the associated country on the one hand, and also conflate the existence of some (real or fake) anti-Semitic CT'ers with CT'ers as a whole, on the other), coupled with your complete ducking of the non-trivial issues I pointed to (lack of real research on the CT community, ease of multiple-identity fakery by a single, unbalanced individual, and detection of deliberate disinformation), shows us just how much a fair, deep thinker you are.

Thank-you, though, for continuing your smear effort. You have inspired me to change my sig to add expert testimony by William Schaap, of Covert Action Quarterly, on disinformation by the CIA and FBI. Therein is discussed a series of newpaper articles that the CIA cooked up, accusing Cuban soldiers of rape in Angola, subsequent capture by villagers, trial, and execution using their own weapons. A completely false set of imaginary stories.

Not to worry, though, dudalb. If you want to go around and proclaim that the Cubans did rape the Angolans, you go right ahead. In fact, you can spice it up, by saying that any time the Cubans ran into Jews, they raped them twice. Or raped them once, then ate them. Or any lie, at all.

Don't forget to climb up the abstraction ladder enough, though, such that you conflate all Cubans with anti-Semitic cannibals. They're still Commies, so they deserve everything they get. Right?

http://911blogger.com/node/14275

[SpaceMonkeyZero]

I want to go on record stating that someday, something dastardly will happen.

Just you wait!

You can quote me on it.

edit: metamars: sometimes your posts are a word salad.

[metamars]

Such research, in order to be taken seriously by me, would have to select people from the general population, and not pretend that online personas cannot be easily faked, allowing highly motivated but unbalanced individuals to skew a 'sample', and that disinformation cannot be deliberately and insincerely injected, also.

I was listening to Thom Hartmann's show (of apparently around 6/5, but my mp3 6/5 file doesn't match the one on my computer) during lunch, and he related how his message board went through a period of getting spammed by shills spewing Republican talking points. So he instituted a policy of charging $4/year, payable via credit card, so that they could control this. He did some research on some of the names, and in one case, the guy was dumb enough to brag online that he was getting 10 cents per spam post. (Hartmann doesn't actually object to bona fide Republicans arguing on his board. He objects to shills who misrepresent themselves, and often make a single post on a thread containing the talking point, and then exit.)

I would suggest a twerp like this will just as easily make anti-Semitic posts for 10 cents per post, pretending to be a CT'er.

Some of the play for pay posters were working for 527's. He may have more info on his web site, http://thomhartmann.com/ .

[metamars]

While the truth movement certainly has its fair share of yearly predictions, I don't necessarily think they are a product of the truth movement. These kinds of predictions occur in several other spheres of life. Economics and weather come to mind. So when is the "big one" supposed to hit again??

I think these kinds of predictions are more of a condition of the human mind.

I do personally hope the prediction in OP is wrong.

Me, too.

As has been pointed out, there have been predictions of an imminent attack on Iran, before. This one seems more credible, there having been a huge Israeli air force exercize the other day, involving in-flight refeuling, and runs about long enough to have reached Natanz, if they'd been pointed in that direction. Wayne Madsen has also reported on a huge spikes in procurement of Hellfire by the US, and its Brimstone equivalent by the British.

I find it disconcerting that nobody has a good answer to my question,


What I'd like to know is if the war gamers who are gaming attacks on Iran have considered what happens if the Iranians respond via their Hezbollah allies, giving them nuclear materials to make, in effect, dirty rockets and missiles?


(Not to mention my learning curve question. )

I know next to nothing about war games, but whatever war games that were used for the 'Operation Iraqi Freedom', they don't seem to have correctly figured in the resulting asymmetric warfare. (Or did they? Some people think the US wanted chaos in Iraq, so as to get the oil deals we wanted, from a sufficiently weak Iraqi government.)

The amount of rockets which landed in Israel in the 2006 Lebanon War may have been militarily insignificant, but in the same numbers, utilized as dirty weapons, strikes me as sufficient to cause the eventual depopulation of Israel. From wikipedia:


During the campaign Hezbollah fired between 3,970 and 4,228 rockets. About 95% of these were 122 mm (4.8 in) Katyusha artillery rockets, which carried warheads up to 30 kg (66 lb) and had a range of up to 30 km (19 mi).[61][62] An estimated 23% of these rockets hit built-up areas, primarily civilian in nature.


While a know-nothing ito war games, in my high school days I was the best chess player in my high school. Chess is all about looking ahead, at various scenarios, and I am having serious concerns about whether the war gamers looked ahead to the days and years, after.

[jaydeehess]

The really intresting think about the OP are the links at the bottom. More proof that Anti Semitism is no longer a Right Wing monopoly. In fact, that de facto Anti Semitism has become acceptable in certain militant left wing circles is one of the most disturbing developments of the past few years.

Whereas most CT's abhor the republicans there is also a large number that abhor Democrats, Socialism and Communism and other patently 'left wing' philosophies. So IMHO, trying to lay a left or right bent to the 'truth movement' is folly. They are sceptical to the point of paranoia, of big government or in fact any large organization be it religious or industrial. The world view of the CT's and specifically the TM, borrows heavily from the worst of the paranoid left and the paranoid right. Therefore they get to fear and hate whoever is in high office. If by some miracle, Ron Paul was elected POTUS they would turn on him within a month.

[metamars]

Seymour Hersh spills the beans about Bush's destablizing Iran, with Congressional approved funding.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/07/07/080707fa_fact_hersh


Ray McGovern interviewed 6/30/2008 by Alex Jones
http://www.radiodujour.com/people/mcgovern_ray/mp3/20080630_alexjones_raymcgovern.mp3

McGovern relates an 'interesting' (for lack of a better term) how Bush personally helped brand fraternity pledges. I found his remarks about the "Mafia lawyers" running interference for Bush's torture program particularly interesting. McGovern is from Brooklyn, and has personally observed mafiosi body language.

He also quotes General Taguba, describing his sense after General Abizaid told him that he was going to be investigated, that for the first time he felt like he was in the Mafia.

[hamelekim]

No, but you will have yet another bit of evidence (like you needed any) that people like McGovern, and others of his ilk (he is a truther), are paranoid delusionacs.

TAM:)
I'm so tired of the double standard you people have. You attack others personally, as nuts, and other pejorative terms, and then fly off the handle about ad hominen attacks when anyone criticizes you personally. Maybe you should take a look in the mirror.

Ray McCovern is a well educated, and highly distinguished individual, who has done more for his country and the world than you EVER have. The fact that you outright dimiss what he has to say shows your ignorance to the way the world works. If anyone knows international politics and espianoge it is ray McGovern. It was his life for several decades, so for you to dimiss him as a nut because his opinion, based off of his knowledge of the people in power, doesn't agree with yours, is pure ignorance.

When the attack does happen, I'm sure you will try to pass it off as some sort of accident and that Ray was arguing that it was going to happen for years so he is still a nut. I find it funny that so many skeptics lack true impartiality, when they claim to be more logical than everyone else.

Maybe, just maybe, your view of the world, and the motives of your political leaders, are not what you think they are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_McGovern

McGovern was born and raised in the Bronx. He graduated summa cum laude of Fordham University. A "Distinguished Military Graduate", he served in the US Army from 1962-64 as an intelligence officer. McGovern also received an M.A. in Russian Studies from Fordham University, a certificate in Theological Studies from Georgetown University and was a graduate of Harvard Business School's Advanced Management Program.

McGovern was a mid-level officer in the CIA in the 1960s where his focus was analysis of Soviet policy toward Vietnam. McGovern was one of President Ronald Reagan's intelligence briefers from 1981-85; he was in charge of preparing daily security briefs for Reagan, Vice President George H.W. Bush, the National Security Advisor, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Cabinet. Later, McGovern was one of several senior CIA analysts who prepared the President's Daily Brief (PDB) during the first Bush administration.

Upon retirement, McGovern was awarded the Intelligence Commendation Medal from Bush (which he later returned, see below) and worked for Washington-based non-profits before becoming co-director of the Servant Leadership School in Washington.

[metamars]

McGovern is from Brooklyn

Oops. McGovern is from the Bronx, not Brooklyn. See post 38.

[metamars]

What I'd like to know is if the war gamers who are gaming attacks on Iran have considered what happens if the Iranians respond via their Hezbollah allies, giving them nuclear materials to make, in effect, dirty rockets and missiles? If these come flying into Israel, causing a rash of birth defects, will Israelis be eager to reproduce?


U-235 and U-238 would not make very good warheads for a dirty bomb rocket.

From http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php


The dominant isotope of uranium, U-238, makes up over 99% of natural uranium and has a half-life of about five billion years. That means that if I have a pound of uranium and let is sit and “decay,” or break down into lighter elements, for five billion years, I will have half a pound left. (For comparison, the Earth is about five billion years old.) The lesser isotope, U-235 is 0.7% and has a half life of almost a billion years. This is to say uranium decays very slowly, which is to say it is not very radioactive. One way to think of this is to imagine that, on the day you were born, you swallowed an ounce of uranium and then lived with it inside you until you died and you lived to be 100 years old. Well, in those hundred years, you have lived just two hundred millionths of the half life, so if half of the uranium will decay in a half life, you would expect about one hundred millionth to decay during your lifetime. (The actual math is a bit more complicated because the decay is exponential, not linear, but not far enough different to change the point.) Not a very efficient way to irradiate someone. This is not to say that uranium is harmless. It is very slightly radioactive. In places where the natural rock has uranium in it, houses have higher concentrations of radon and that does have a risk. It is a heavy metal so it is poisonous, just as lead, mercury, cadmium and many other heavy metals are poisonous, but there are far more dangerous radioactive materials in common use in industry that could be used as dirty bomb material.


I have no idea how available nuclear materials which would be good for dirty bombs may be to Iran. I should think, though, that Iranian nuclear scientists are capable of handling them, if they can get a hold of them.

This is not a road the world needs to go down. In one sense, the current crises related to a high oil price may be a blessing in disguise. The resulting high food prices, as well as some food riots, may be just the reminder that Iran and Israel need in order to come to realize that feeding and securing their populations now and in the future requires peaceful coexistence, and would be facilitated by technological cooperation. E.g., I have read that Israel leads the world in water desalination technology. I don't know what the status is of Iran's water availability, but both Middle Eastern neighbors of both Iran and Israel likely are staring serious problems in the face. Does either Iran or Israel want to deal with neighbors that are becoming lawless and chaotic due to water shortages?

OK, I just did a quick search and this site (http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/natres/waterindex.htm) has some interesting articles. One of them says that

Twenty-five percent of Israel’s water supply depends on access to the Golan Heights. Since Israel’s 1967 occupation of the Golan Heights, Israel has claimed the territory as its own. To move peace negotiations forward, Israel should consider desalinization of the Mediterranean Sea as an alternative water source, and return the Golan Heights to Syria under a water-sharing agreement similar to that between Israel and Jordan.



Earth Policy Institute has this article: http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/indicator7.htm


Water shortages now plague almost every country in North Africa and the Middle East. Algeria, Egypt, Iran, and Morocco are being forced into the world market for 40 percent or more of their grain supply. As population continues to expand in these water-short nations, dependence on imported grain is rising.

Iran, one of the most populous countries in the Middle East, with 70 million people, is facing widespread water shortages. In the northeast, Chenaran Plain—a fertile agricultural region to the east of Mashad, one of Iran's largest and fastest-growing cities—is fast losing its water supply. Wells drawing from the water table below the plain are used for irrigation and to supply water to Mashad. The latest official estimate shows the water table falling by 8 meters in 2001 as the demand for water far outstrips the recharge rate of aquifers.

Falling water tables in parts of eastern Iran have caused many wells to go dry. Some villages have been evacuated because there is no longer any accessible water. Iran is one of the first countries to face the prospect of water refugees—people displaced by the depletion of water supplies.

(emphasis mine)

Frankly, I think that the idea that Iranian leaders wake up in the morning and begin thinking about the glorious day that they blow Israel off the map with nuclear weapons is ludicrous. As Israel already has nuclear weapons, nobody doubts that they would return the favor. And if the Iranians hates Jews so much, why don't they start by wiping out their indigenous population of Jews? What are they waiting for?

Meanwhile, nuclear energy is the preferred way to power desalination plants (that's my understanding, though I don't know much about the subject). There seems to be plenty of room for, and need of, a compromise. E.g., Iran could agree to a suspension of nuclear enrichment for 40 years (to make up a number), in return for guarantees from Russia and China (nobody should expect them to trust the West) for nuclear fuel. They can get desalination equipment from Israel, for which Israel could get cash, plus something far more valuable - good will. They could cement this relationship by jointly researching improvements in desalination technology.

Declaring a regional war against water shortage vs. risking unending hostility and radioactive contamination doesn't seem like such a hard choice to make. Ah, but that's the view from MetaMars.

[jaydeehess]

Well plutonium would make the best dirty bomb as it is sure to cause cancers if you spread it around. However if you have plutonium you might as well go all the way and produce a thermonuclear device.
U-238 would suffice as a dirty bomb as it will stil raise the background radiation of the zone affected and will be easier to obtain and handle than plutonium.

On another point, it seems that talk of the so called 9/11 truths on these JREF conspiracy forums has gone down a notch. Maybe time is ripe for another false flag event. lol

It is inevitable that another terrorist attack will take place in the USA. So was the first, the second and also the attacks of 9/11/01. When it does occur the TM's will be claiming 'false flag, false flag' and excusing the people who actually carried it out by claiming they aren't smart enough to have done it.

[roundhead]

U-235 and U-238 would not make very good warheads for a dirty bomb rocket.

From http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/oh_no_not_another_uranium_dirt.php



I have no idea how available nuclear materials which would be good for dirty bombs may be to Iran. I should think, though, that Iranian nuclear scientists are capable of handling them, if they can get a hold of them.

This is not a road the world needs to go down. In one sense, the current crises related to a high oil price may be a blessing in disguise. The resulting high food prices, as well as some food riots, may be just the reminder that Iran and Israel need in order to come to realize that feeding and securing their populations now and in the future requires peaceful coexistence, and would be facilitated by technological cooperation. E.g., I have read that Israel leads the world in water desalination technology. I don't know what the status is of Iran's water availability, but both Middle Eastern neighbors of both Iran and Israel likely are staring serious problems in the face. Does either Iran or Israel want to deal with neighbors that are becoming lawless and chaotic due to water shortages?

OK, I just did a quick search and this site (http://www.globalpolicy.org/security/natres/waterindex.htm) has some interesting articles. One of them says that



Earth Policy Institute has this article: http://www.earth-policy.org/Indicators/indicator7.htm


(emphasis mine)

Frankly, I think that the idea that Iranian leaders wake up in the morning and begin thinking about the glorious day that they blow Israel off the map with nuclear weapons is ludicrous. As Israel already has nuclear weapons, nobody doubts that they would return the favor. And if the Iranians hates Jews so much, why don't they start by wiping out their indigenous population of Jews? What are they waiting for?

Meanwhile, nuclear energy is the preferred way to power desalination plants (that's my understanding, though I don't know much about the subject). There seems to be plenty of room for, and need of, a compromise. E.g., Iran could agree to a suspension of nuclear enrichment for 40 years (to make up a number), in return for guarantees from Russia and China (nobody should expect them to trust the West) for nuclear fuel. They can get desalination equipment from Israel, for which Israel could get cash, plus something far more valuable - good will. They could cement this relationship by jointly researching improvements in desalination technology.

Declaring a regional war against water shortage vs. risking unending hostility and radioactive contamination doesn't seem like such a hard choice to make. Ah, but that's the view from MetaMars.



By far the most enlightening post i have read on here.

Yes, there are 11 Jewish churches in Tehran.

[SDC]

What are "Jewish churches"? And what relevance do they have to false flag attacks?

Yes, there is an organized Jewish community in Iran. Yes, it is a shadow of its former self. As in the entire Moslem world.

[SDC]

"McGovern is from [the Bronx], and has personally observed mafiosi body language."

That is from Metamars. I do not even want to think about what it may mean.

ETA: I lived in Brooklyn (m's original erroneous location for Mcgovern) for 6 years, and my daughter was born there. I wonder what body languages we have observed.

[Childlike Empress]

Yes, it is a shadow of its former self.


How so? Last time i checked they even refused to take money for leaving Iran (http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/breaking/103010.html).

[SDC]

How so? Last time i checked they even refused to take money for leaving Iran (http://www.jta.org/cgi-bin/iowa/breaking/103010.html).

Bitter wisecrack begins.

Yes, and speaking as a Jew, I am embarrassed. Next they'll start buying retail.

End to bitter wisecrack.

Yep, the official community is still there, much smaller than it was before the revolution. Most left for Israel, the Americas, or Europe. And those who remained presumably had moms who didn't raise no fools, to coin a cliche. Why should they rile the Iranian government? It's like the old saying: better a Jew without a beard... Than a beard without the Jew.

Look it up.

[Childlike Empress]

Look it up.


Your claim. Please provide evidence.

[SDC]

Your claim. Please provide evidence.

For what? Buying retail?

The "better a Jew..." saying?

Their moms didn't raise no fools?

As we say among our people... You're not from around here, are you?

[Childlike Empress]

You claimed that the iranian jewish community is "a shadow of its former self".

[SDC]

Assuming you actually want to learn about the Jews of Iran, you could go here http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/anti-semitism/iranjews.html

or here for the Beeb http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5367892.stm

or here for (shudder) Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_Jews

and no doubt many other sources.

[SDC]

For the beard bit, from a digitized book of Yiddish proverbs http://books.google.com/books?id=jo0pf-s-BwgC&pg=PA267&lpg=PA267&dq=better+a+jew+without+a+beard&source=web&ots=i5elfVCLuV&sig=5MqFnqS4o8sYkq0wgnOxNqiRtdY&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result

[SDC]

Reference (though not necessarily Jewish source) to mommas not raising no fools http://www.lyricsmode.com/lyrics/f/firehouse/mama_didnt_raise_no_fool.html (with complimentary ringtone!)

[SDC]

And a pretty suspicious source which refers to the tragedy of buying retail http://books.google.com/books?id=BeFC9bAG2B0C&pg=PA32&lpg=PA32&dq=jews+buying+retail&source=web&ots=5G3Ww3NJPQ&sig=y5GAjA7sDf-tEFjeenifReSucZk&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result

Had enough?

[Childlike Empress]

From the (2006) BBC article:

[Iran's Jewish MP] Mr Mohtamed has been outspoken in his condemnation of the president's views - in itself a sign that there is some space for Jews in Iran to express themselves. [...]

Despite the offence Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has caused to Jews around the world, his office recently donated money for Tehran's Jewish hospital.

It is one of only four Jewish charity hospitals worldwide and is funded with money from the Jewish diaspora - something remarkable in Iran where even local aid organisations have difficulty receiving funds from abroad for fear of being accused of being foreign agents. [...]

In between chopping up meat, butcher Hersel Gabriel tells me how he expected problems when he came back from Israel, but in fact the immigration officer didn't say anything to him.

"Whatever they say abroad is lies - we are comfortable in Iran - if you're not political and don't bother them then they won't bother you," he explains.

His customer, middle-aged housewife Giti agrees, saying she can easily talk to her two sons in Tel Aviv on the telephone and visit them.

"It's not a problem coming and going; I went to Israel once through Turkey and once through Cyprus and it was not problem at all," she says.

Gone are the early days of the Iranian revolution when Jews - and many Muslims - found it hard to get passports to travel abroad.

"In the last five years the government has allowed Iranian Jews to go to Israel freely, meet their families and when they come back they face no problems," says Mr Mohtamed.

He says there is also a way for Iranian Jews who emigrated to Israel decades ago to return to Iran and see their families.

"They can now go to the Iranian consul general in Istanbul and get Iranian identity documents and freely come to Iran," he says.

The exodus of Jews from Iran seems to have slowed down - the first wave was in the 1950s and the second was in the wake of the Iranian Revolution.

Those Jews who remain in Iran seem to have made a conscious decision to stay put.

[SDC]

So what's your point? Yes, there are Jews remaining, no doubt for a variety of reasons. My point was that there isn't much left to the community, relative to what it had been.

But we are way off topic. What about the relevance of buying retail to the false flag operation?

[Childlike Empress]

My point was that there isn't much left to the community, relative to what it had been.


Had been when? There isn't any evidence for what you claim, or at least you haven't produced any. Even your own source (the one relevant to the claim, i'm not interested in folklore) doesn't agree with you.

My point is to call you on your unsubstantiated claim.

[SDC]

How silly your statements are. You evidently won't read anything except the Beeb article, which was rather equivocal, and you won't do your own work. If you believe that the Iranian Jewish community is as large and healthy as it was before the revolution, I advise you to do some of your own research. Perhaps you can find some Iranian Jewish contacts, whether in Iran or elsewhere.

Good luck. You will need it, with your evident unwillingness to do your own work, or read the works provided by others. You aren't Oliver's twin, are you?

ETA: sorry. Meant to say "Doppelganger." Provide your own umlaut.

[Childlike Empress]

I advise you to do some of your own research.


Truther alarm!

On Topic: McGovern has a lot of very interesting stuff (text (http://www.antiwar.com/mcgovern/) and audio (http://antiwar.com/radio/index.php?s=McGovern)) on antiwar.com.

[SDC]

Ok, Oliver. Whatever you say.

[CptColumbo]

By far the most enlightening post i have read on here.

Yes, there are 11 Jewish churches in Tehran.

What are "Jewish churches"? And what relevance do they have to false flag attacks?

Yes, there is an organized Jewish community in Iran. Yes, it is a shadow of its former self. As in the entire Moslem world.When I was reading "Guests of the Ayatollah" I was surprised that there was such a large Jewish community in Iran, but then I remembered that Marco Polo commented about the mix of religions in the Middle East.

If you get a chance (and are interested) check out the graphic novel or the movie Persepolis. Its about life in Iran in the late 20th century from a girl/woman's perspective.

[SDC]

I wish to express my thanks to this thread for finally convincing me to ignore Childlike Empress.

Thank you, thread.

[Childlike Empress]

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/9907451897c0442ad.gif

[SDC]

What bliss.

[metamars]

By far the most enlightening post i have read on here.

Yes, there are 11 Jewish churches in Tehran.

Thanks. Perhaps if more war gamers played chess, we would have a better - and wetter - world! :)

I've given some more thought to vulnerabilities on both sides of the Mutual Assured Destruction situation I have sketched out.

On the Iranian side, their current stressed state with respect to water security suggests that Israel could do far worse damage to the entire nation of Iran by targeting water infrastructure in cities situated in their more stressed regions, instead of well-protected nuclear sites. Depending on the details (which I don't know), one can envision a strike crippling enough to force the trucking in of water to dried up cities from nearby rural areas, on the one hand, and emigration out of the cities to those same nearby rural areas, on the other. (Presumably, the emigrants would only anticipate a temporary relocation.)

However, if those "nearby rural areas" are also sufficiently stressed, they may rapidly also collapse as sources of water, leading to a sort of chain reaction. The radius of water dysfunction would increase until water resources near the perimeter met the requirements of the water consumers inside that perimeter. Most likely, there would be both official and de facto rationing inside the dysfunctional region, and besides all of the other interruptions in normal life, there may be a partial collapse in farming. So besides large decreases in prosperity and gainful employment, there may be a degree a famine to go along with it, after some months.

On the Israeli side, it's possible that the severe birth defects associated with depleted uranium have little to do with radioactivity (since, as I noted, even non-depleted uranium is not suitable as a dirty bomb), and instead have to do with heavy metal toxicity.* Thus, Iranians who wish to construct dirty missiles and rockets might only use the suitable radioactive species to spike finely ground powders of U-238, which the Iranians do have in sizable quantities. The presence of dirty bomb ingredients would still exacerbate the cleanup requirements, while the inhaled particles of U-238 would create the horrific birth defects observed in Iraq.


I hope that a more careful consideration of vulnerabilities by both war gamers and politicians on both sides stimulates their receptivity to non-belligerent solutions. Krishnamurti taught that "Love is vulnerable". The chest-thumping state of mind needs to be let go of, since perfect security is impossible, anyway, and since mutual concerns with burgeoning populations in the region loom large, as would be obvious if people would pay them attention. If it's recognized, on both sides, that vulnerability cannot be banished, then a finer state of consciousness can be attained.

Peace could be a happy by-product of this finer state of consciousness.


* wikipedia state "The external radiation dose from DU is about 60 percent of that from the same mass of natural uranium". That's not a huge difference.

[metamars]

They can get desalination equipment from Israel, for which Israel could get cash, plus something far more valuable - good will.

Hot off the press:

From Syria 'would break links with Iran' if America steps in to help it (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/2253080/Syria-%27would-break-links-with-Iran%27-if-America-steps-in-to-help-it.html)


Syria has also demanded the building of a desalination plant in exchange for letting Israel continue to draw drinking water from the Golan.

[metamars]

From http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9597
"desalinating seawater and pumping it to the West Bank....would cost around $1 per cubic meter,"

This figure is right in line with:
http://www.livescience.com/environment/070625_desalination_membranes.html
"Depending on local energy prices, 1,000 gallons of desalinated seawater can cost around $3 or $4."

( 1,000 gallon [US, liquid] = 3.785 411 784 cubic meter )



From the first reference:

Desalinization Plans

The publication New Scientist has covered "the latest science and technology news, reports, developments and research" for over 50 years. In May 2004, it reported that Israel had a "secret plan for a giant desalination plant to supply (privatized) drinking water to (Palestinians in) the West Bank." It was to preserve fresh water supplies for Israelis, but here's the catch. Israel won't fund it nor can Palestinians. It means the world community or possibly the US would have to do it. Just as bad, if it's ever completed, is the cost as leading hydrologists point out: "desalinating seawater and pumping it to the West Bank....would cost around $1 per cubic meter," an impossible amount for Palestinians to pay at an exchange rate of 3.3 shekels to the dollar. Many if not most Israelis as well.

Nonetheless, Alvin Newman, USAID's Tel Aviv head of water resources, supported the project, and with good reason. If funding is secured, it would mean lucrative business contracts for favored USAID contractors. Palestinians, on the other hand, are fearful. They object to desalinization plans dependent on their abandoning claims to West Bank water - resources beneath their own land. Ihad Barghothi, Palestinian Water Authority's head of water projects said at the time: "We cannot do that (nor do we) have the money or expertise for desalination."

Gaza is another issue. It depends almost exclusively on small wells tapping the coastal aquifer. But as the water table falls, it's being increasingly polluted by salt sea water. UN scientists conclude that within 15 years (from 2004) Gaza will have no drinkable water and will have to import its needs. But even now the World Health Organization reports that Gaza's water quality falls below its acceptable standards due to the aquifer's degradation. Besides that, 40% of Gaza homes lack running water, according to the Palestinian Water Authority.

Another possible solution is an approved and apparently funded so-called ocean depth reverse osmosis plant to provide the Territory's supply. It's another method of desalinating sea water, but here again there's the cost.

New Scientist points out that if these two projects become reality they'll make "Palestine more dependent on desalination than almost any other nation in the world." And given the cost of desalinated water, it will be out of reach for the great majority of impoverished Palestinians.



As poor as the Palestinians may be, I don't see where paying ($1 / m^3) * (3.79 m^3 / 1,000 gallons) = $0.00379 / gallon should be something they can't afford, for regular household purposes. A typical Australian or American uses about 100 gallons per day, but survival needs are only 2.5 liters. ( http://www.greenlivingtips.com/blogs/138/The-cost-of-desalination.html ) What requirements are for farming and industry, I have no idea, and don't want to look it up right now. Anybody?



There is an effort underway trying to cut the energy cost by 50% http://www.greenlivingtips.com/blogs/138/The-cost-of-desalination.html

Last month, Australia's largest scientific research agency joined with nine major universities in a membrane research program to reduce desalination energy costs, as well as maintenance costs associated with gunk sticking to membranes and fouling them up.

"Lowering the energy required for desalination and the fouling propensity of membranes are the two biggest challenges facing desalination," Gray says.

A team of diverse researchers will try to tackle these problems by developing new types of membrane materials. The goal is to cut in half the energy required for desalination.

"We would hope to have something available within the next 10 years," Gray said.



For seawater, energy cost was about 44% of the total, back in 2005. See p. 43, http://www.ucowr.siu.edu/updates/132/6.pdf , The Economics of Deslination

[jaydeehess]

Had been when? There isn't any evidence for what you claim, or at least you haven't produced any. Even your own source (the one relevant to the claim, i'm not interested in folklore) doesn't agree with you.

My point is to call you on your unsubstantiated claim.

C.E. the Beeb article you quote states'
,,,Gone are the early days of the Iranian revolution when Jews - and many Muslims - found it hard to get passports to travel abroad.

"In the last five years the government has allowed Iranian Jews to go to Israel freely, meet their families and when they come back they face no problems," says Mr Mohtamed.

He says there is also a way for Iranian Jews who emigrated to Israel decades ago to return to Iran and see their families. ,,,

,,The exodus of Jews from Iran seems to have slowed down - the first wave was in the 1950s and the second was in the wake of the Iranian Revolution.


The article is about the loosening of the society of present day Iran. Specifically mentioned is the loosening of travel restrictions in the last 5 years. Seems to me,, oh yes, I am quite sure of it,, the Iranian revolution took place when Jimmy Carter was President of the USA. Perhaps you missed it.

Now, pray tell, what do the other articles that SDC linked have to say about this off-topic, topic?

[jaydeehess]

http://www.radiodujour.com/people/mcgovern_ray/mp3/20080625_alexjones_raymcgovern.mp3

"Imminent" actually means over the next 2 months.


Almost half way into that "next two months" yet bombastic talk about Iran is ebbing. In fact the USA is actually speaking with Iran. Oh, they say, 'no negotiations unless such and such' but in fact the Europeans are negotiating and the USA has people in Iran speaking with them about the European proposals.

When will you learn that pretty much everything that you hear on Alex Jones is carp?

[hamelekim]

Almost half way into that "next two months" yet bombastic talk about Iran is ebbing. In fact the USA is actually speaking with Iran. Oh, they say, 'no negotiations unless such and such' but in fact the Europeans are negotiating and the USA has people in Iran speaking with them about the European proposals.

When will you learn that pretty much everything that you hear on Alex Jones is carp?

They are talking because they know if they did strike iran it would lead to 300+ dollar a barrel oil. This would collapse the US economy in a heartbeat. It's going to happen anyway, but they want to slow the process down.

They might strike anyway though, especially considering the troubles coming later this year, they might decide to do it to get people to forget about the economy and worry about their lives instead.

Those talks you mentioned have broken down and the US issued an ultimatum. I don't think that the idea is ********, and Alex Jones isn't the first person, nor the only person to espouse this idea.

U.S., Allies Give Iran Ultimatum After Nuclear Talks Stall (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,386542,00.html)

GENEVA — A U.S. decision to bend policy and sit down with Iran at nuclear talks fizzled Saturday, with Iran stonewalling Washington and five other world powers on their call to freeze uranium enrichment.

In response, the six gave Iran two weeks to respond to their demand, setting the stage for a new round of U.N. sanctions.

Iran's refusal to consider suspending enrichment was an indirect slap at the United States, which had sent Undersecretary of State William Burns to the talks in hopes the first-time American presence would encourage Tehran into making concessions.

It might not happen, but Israel wants to do it, and their lobby has a lot of political power in the US. If it does happen, it will be a large strike, to attempt to prevent a large scale retaliatory strike by Iran on US troops in Iraq, and Israel.

[metamars]

Almost half way into that "next two months" yet bombastic talk about Iran is ebbing. In fact the USA is actually speaking with Iran. Oh, they say, 'no negotiations unless such and such' but in fact the Europeans are negotiating and the USA has people in Iran speaking with them about the European proposals.

When will you learn that pretty much everything that you hear on Alex Jones is carp?

If a beautiful princess goes to a ball, whether she dances with a prince, or with a bullfrog, she will still be beautiful.

The "imminent" prediction that I refer to was made by McGovern. If it was merely made by Alex Jones, I wouldn't have posted it.

BTW, McGovern has more recently been interviewed by Scott Horton at antiwar.com (http://antiwar.com/radio/2008/07/18/ray-mcgovern-8/).
In this interview, he suggests that there is a motive, on the part of the Israelis, for an attack on Iran as a way of getting the US to stay in Iraq. (McGovern years ago said that the motives for the Iraq invasion were OIL (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_McGovern) - "O for oil; I for Israel; and L for logistics, logistics being the permanent — now we say “enduring” — military bases that the U.S. wants to keep in Iraq")