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Pookster
8th September 2008, 04:00 PM
Brainster better take that action.............

I believe it was "by Monday". Brainster chose wisely. :D

Brainster
8th September 2008, 04:06 PM
He might by the end of Monday. At this very moment at intrade, it's ...

52 Obama, 48 McCain

Yep. I tend to be confused by these rolling average polls; when I originally made the prediction, I had seen the Obama lead (with leaners) decline from five points to two. It seemed likely that trend would continue for the next couple days or so, but it didn't happen. The next day Obama was back up to three points in the lead. But then it went to even and McCain up one.

It does highlight that the markets are basically following the polls these days, which makes sense as we get closer and closer to the election.

ETA: Here's what I'm getting at with the rolling average problem. We know that Rasmussen surveys 1000 likely voters per day, and averages the three days to get their total. On 9/4/08 the Poll stood at +5 for Obama. Now that could shake out several ways, but let's just use the easy one, by assuming that the last three days had all seen Obama up by 5. What would it take to turn that to +2 for Obama on 9/5? Well, we drop off one of the +5 days, so the latest day would have to be -4 for Obama (or +4 McCain). The next day showed +3 for Obama; what would that take? Well, the prior days were +5, -4, so in order to get +3 for Obama on average, we'd have to have +8 for Obama. The next day showed dead even; that requires another -4. The next day shows -1 for Obama, which means that the latest day had to be -7.

Very confusing. You can try starting with different numbers, but you'll still have that oddball three days in the middle with huge swings back and forth.

MattusMaximus
8th September 2008, 05:20 PM
Currently, the Iowa Electronic Markets have the following scores:

Vote-Share
Obama 52.9
McCain 48.1

Winner-Take-All
Obama 55.8
McCain 44.9

Looks like I was wrong about McCain not cracking 45 on the WTA-IEM. I was willing to lay down some cash... someone should've taken me up on that action. I still don't see him cracking 50 on the WTA-IEM by next Monday though.

Aside: I would also note that if you compare the history of the IEM in the 2004 race to the current race, you'll see that (at least in the vote-share market) the lead Bush had over Kerry (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_VS.cfm) was never very substantial after Labor Day. With the exception of a weird spike for Kerry in early October (anyone know what that was all about?), it looks very much like the current Obama/McCain graph (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_VS.cfm) but with the Democrat on top.

It will be interesting to see how much tighter - if at all - the markets get. My guess is that as the news of the RNC recedes and attention turns elsewhere, the markets will stabilize (as will most polls). The real test of what's going to happen to the markets next will be the debates. I think that is where we're going to see the next substantial movement one way or another.

Of course, there's always the possibility that some random event could change the landscape: a terrorist attack, McCain has medical issues, a horrendous jobs report for September, etc. Something of that magnitude could very easily change things fast.

MattusMaximus
8th September 2008, 05:22 PM
Those that pick the winner will make money.

Yeah, but some use "play money" while others are the real deal.

Brainster
8th September 2008, 05:26 PM
ABC News/Washington Post shows Obama with a 1-point lead (registered voters), and McCain with a 2-point lead (likely voters) but the big takeaway from the poll, mentioned before they even get to the bottom line results, is that white women have switched to McCain (http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1070a1AftertheConventions.pdf) (PDF file) in huge numbers.

How huge? White women preferred Obama to McCain by 8 percentage points in August. They now prefer McCain over Obama by 12 percentage points. That's a staggering switch and indeed, I can't help wondering how Obama could still possibly be in the lead among registered voters with that result.

1,133 adults including 961 registered voters. Error margin of +/- 3% (for the registered voters).

MattusMaximus
8th September 2008, 05:27 PM
He might by the end of Monday. At this very moment at intrade, it's ...

52 Obama, 48 McCain

It's started to swing back the other way now. Current numbers...

Obama 53.8
McCain 46.0

Wangler
8th September 2008, 05:27 PM
Heading into the near future, I predict that McCain/Palin will get a minor bump after her first interview (barring a complete flail on her part).

Obama/Biden gets a bump after first presidential debate, regardless of who "wins" the debate.

Whoever "wins" the VP debate will provide a large bump for their ticket. This debate will easily be most watched VP debate in history.

The final two presidential debates will provide bumps for whichever side "won" the VP debate.

Of course, any of these predictions will be rendered useless if some big scandal breaks, or something equally shocking happens, like a terrorist attack, or something.

MattusMaximus
8th September 2008, 05:30 PM
ABC News/Washington Post shows Obama with a 1-point lead (registered voters), and McCain with a 2-point lead (likely voters) but the big takeaway from the poll, mentioned before they even get to the bottom line results, is that white women have switched to McCain (http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1070a1AftertheConventions.pdf) (PDF file) in huge numbers.

How huge? White women preferred Obama to McCain by 8 percentage points in August. They now prefer McCain over Obama by 12 percentage points. That's a staggering switch and indeed, I can't help wondering how Obama could still possibly be in the lead among registered voters with that result.

1,133 adults including 961 registered voters. Error margin of +/- 3% (for the registered voters).

It could be that many of those white women were undecideds or GOP women who were on the fence about McCain. This is weird, because somewhere today or yesterday I thought I saw another poll which indicated that independent & Democratic women (most likely Hillary voters) were basically staying put.

You're right, it's damned confusing. Damn polls :rolleyes:

MattusMaximus
8th September 2008, 05:31 PM
Obama/Biden gets a bump after first presidential debate, regardless of who "wins" the debate.

Why would you say this?

Wangler
8th September 2008, 06:35 PM
Why would you say this?

I guess because I'm not sure how effective McCain is going to be.........and if he does "win" the debate on "substance" he will loose on "style"...I'll be just like that Kennedy-Nixon debate.

applecorped
8th September 2008, 06:38 PM
General Election: McCain vs. Obama

RCP Electoral Map (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/) | Changes in Electoral Count (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count.html) | Map With No Toss Ups (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) | No Toss Up Changes (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/election_2008/electoral_count_no_toss_ups.html)
Polling Data

PollDateSampleMcCain (R)Obama (D)SpreadRCP Average09/05 - 09/07--48.345.4McCain +2.9ABC News/Wash Post (http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1070a1AftertheConventions.pdf)09/05 - 09/07LV4947McCain +2CBS News (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/08/opinion/polls/main4427157.shtml)09/05 - 09/07655 RV4644McCain +2USA Today/Gallup (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008_09_05topline.html)09/05 - 09/07823 LV5444McCain +10CNN (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2008/images/09/08/rel12a.pdf)09/05 - 09/07942 RV4848TieRasmussen Tracking (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll)09/05 - 09/073000 LV4847McCain +1Hotline/FD Tracking (http://diageohotlinepoll.com/Tracker/Diageo%20Hotline%20Tracker%20release%20-%2009%2008%2008%20data.pdf)09/05 - 09/07924 RV4444TieGallup Tracking (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110110/Gallup-Daily-McCains-Bounce-Gives-Him-5Point-Lead.aspx)09/05 - 09/072733 RV4944McCain +5
See All General Election: McCain vs. Obama Polling Data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls)

David Wong
8th September 2008, 07:42 PM
If there's good news for Obama supporters, it's that Obama's convention bounce had him up 6-8 points, where McCain's bounce has him up by 2 or tied, everywhere but at Gallup.

If the bounce fades then it doesn't go back to tied, it goes back to McCain down by 3 or so. Guess we'll see.

Puppycow
8th September 2008, 11:36 PM
All I can say is, Joe Biden better win that debate.

I would rather have Hillary debate Palin than Biden, but it's too late now.

I thought at the time that an Obama/Clinton ticket would have been the best, and I'm sorry that Obama or the people around him couldn't see that.

I'm sorry to say that I agree with Ed Rollins (http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/08/rollins.convention/index.html)

Commentary: Obama wrong to spurn Hillary, pick Biden

NEW YORK (CNN) -- Ten days ago, Sen. Joe Biden was the most brilliant vice presidential pick imaginable. He was going to add the experience and foreign policy credential that Sen. Barack Obama's thin resume was missing.

The so-called expert commentators were arguing that blue-collar Joe was going to guarantee Pennsylvania (because he was born in Scranton) and other states and get Catholic voters because he is a pro-choice Catholic.

I guess they forgot that Joe didn't do so well with Iowa Catholics (23 percent of the population) when he campaigned there for more than a year in the Democratic caucus race. But then getting less than 1 percent of the vote and coming in fifth place showed he didn't do real well with any voter group in Iowa. Nor did he do well anywhere else, other than Delaware.

Then, after Sen. John McCain chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, people laughed and said Biden was going to wipe the floor with Palin in the vice presidential debate. Now, after her incredible convention speech, Biden is saying that he's the underdog because he's not a very good debater.

If Obama had done the smart thing, he would have picked Sen. Hillary Clinton for vice president. If he had, he would have united his party for sure and energized his base.
He just couldn't do it and maybe thought he didn't need to do it. He was wrong. That choice would have meant that McCain probably wouldn't have picked Palin. And if McCain had picked anybody else from his shortlist, the Republican convention would have been boring, and the party's base would not have been motivated.

The one thing we know for sure -- the selection of Biden did the least to enhance any ticket since George H.W. Bush picked Dan Quayle back in 1988. This is turning out to be another election the Democrats were convinced they couldn't lose. So far, the selection of Palin has been a game-changer and has energized my party like no one since Ronald Reagan did four decades ago.

The polls are back to even again. The only difference is the Republicans now have a communicator to match Obama and the Democrats have on their ticket an older veteran of Washington politics to match McCain's experience. The reformer Obama who was going to be the candidate of change is now running with Mr. D.C. establishment.

Pookster
9th September 2008, 05:05 AM
ABC News/Washington Post shows Obama with a 1-point lead (registered voters), and McCain with a 2-point lead (likely voters) but the big takeaway from the poll, mentioned before they even get to the bottom line results, is that white women have switched to McCain (http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1070a1AftertheConventions.pdf) (PDF file) in huge numbers.

How huge? White women preferred Obama to McCain by 8 percentage points in August. They now prefer McCain over Obama by 12 percentage points. That's a staggering switch and indeed, I can't help wondering how Obama could still possibly be in the lead among registered voters with that result.

1,133 adults including 961 registered voters. Error margin of +/- 3% (for the registered voters).

I wonder what the margin of error is for that subgroup. Typically they're much larger than the poll's margin of error. I don't doubt there hasn't been a shift, but this just seems too extreme to me.

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 211 black respondents. Results among the 961 registered voters have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

Pookster
9th September 2008, 05:56 AM
To add to the above, from the CNN poll ...

The gender gap is also apparent when it comes to whether Palin is qualified to serve as president. Fifty-seven percent of male respondents said Palin was qualified, 14 points higher than women. A majority of women polled, 55 percent, said Palin is not qualified.

"In a hypothetical race with no running mates, [Sen. Barack] Obama gets 49 percent and McCain gets 48 percent," he said. "In the real world, the McCain/Palin ticket and the Obama/Biden ticket are tied at 48 percent apiece, indicating that the running mates bring virtually no votes to the ticket by themselves."

Given those findings in the CNN, I don't see much support for McCain to have swung over so many white women over the past few weeks. CNN even has this for all women ...

Another factor may be gender. "Although Sarah Palin is the first woman on a GOP ticket, women nationwide are sticking with Obama -- 52 percent of women are planning to vote Democratic, while 51 percent of men are in the GOP column," Holland added.

The numbers just don't work for me, but they are two different polls.

Pookster
9th September 2008, 06:35 AM
Rasmussen has it at a tie today (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

One week ago today, Obama’s bounce peaked with the Democrat enjoying a six-percentage point advantage (see recent daily results). Now, for the first time in Election 2008, Rasmussen Markets data shows the race to be a toss-up.

It looks like the McCain bounce has likely peaked. The coming days will be interesting to see if he can maintain 48%.

David Wong
9th September 2008, 07:13 AM
All I can say is, Joe Biden better win that debate.

I would rather have Hillary debate Palin than Biden, but it's too late now.

I thought at the time that an Obama/Clinton ticket would have been the best, and I'm sorry that Obama or the people around him couldn't see that.

Why can't people understand that "winning the election" CANNOT be the primary criteria for choosing a VP?

He didn't reject her because he though Biden gave him a better chance at winning (he knew he didn't). He rejected her because trying to govern with Hillary and Bill both in the whitehouse, both trying to be President, would have been a disaster.

You can't just look at the election. That's also why that whole "you need to pick somebody from a key battleground state!!!" logic was ridiculous. They never do that, and for good reason. You actually need someone who would make a good VP, not just a good VP candidate.

All the difference in the world. That Obama took the long view on this makes me respect him more than if he had just made the quick grab for votes with no eye on how he'd actually govern later.

gdnp
9th September 2008, 08:04 AM
All the difference in the world. That Obama took the long view on this makes me respect him more than if he had just made the quick grab for votes with no eye on how he'd actually govern later.

I'd like to hear the Republican response. Really think that Palin would make the best VP?

Brainster
9th September 2008, 08:47 AM
John Edwards was clearly chosen because of his excellent qualifications hair to be vice president.

VPs are always chosen to provide balance to a ticket, whether it's geographic, experience, charisma, etc. Joe Biden was not chosen because he was the best candidate, but because he addressed a glaring weakness: Obama's thin resume for the job.

Gallup shows McCain winning independents (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx):

John McCain's 6 percentage-point bounce in voter support spanning the Republican National Convention is largely explained by political independents shifting to him in fairly big numbers, from 40% pre-convention to 52% post-convention in Gallup Poll Daily tracking.

This is a crosstab from the Gallup tracking poll of 2,733 registered voters. The error margin for the poll is +/-2%, but it is clearly higher for the independent voter subgrouping.

David Wong
9th September 2008, 10:17 AM
McCain is up by 5 on Gallup for the second consecutive day, so yeah that is the high water mark for his convention bounce.

First debate is September 26th, I assume the race will be tied again going into that.

David Wong
9th September 2008, 11:29 AM
On this day in 2004...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Looks like Bush was up by 7 to 16 points, depending on the poll.

chipmunk stew
9th September 2008, 03:38 PM
On this day in 2004...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Looks like Bush was up by 7 to 16 points, depending on the poll.
McCain should average about a 6 or 7 point lead over Obama through the end of this month if he's going keep up with Bush.

He better hope his convention bump hasn't peaked.

Pookster
9th September 2008, 03:43 PM
NBC News/WSJ has Obama up by 1 (46%-45%) ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122099348086116259.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

The poll was taken starting Saturday -- two days after the end of the Republican National Convention ended in St. Paul, Minn. -- through Monday night. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points, meaning either candidate could be slightly ahead.

The Palin effect helps explain why Sen. McCain is now even with Barack Obama in the head-to-head race.

The survey had good news for Sen. Obama as well, showing that he improved his standing with the electorate in areas where he had been seen as weak. More voters found said they were comfortable with him as president that they did in a Journal poll three weeks ago, as did the portion who said they were confident in his ability to be commander in chief.

Pookster
9th September 2008, 03:45 PM
Interesting tidbit from the NBC poll ...

Politics aside, Sen. Obama and Gov. Palin emerged in the poll as the most desirable dinner dates. Asked who they would most like to have dinner with, 40% picked Sen. Obama. Gov. Palin was second with 33%. The white men finished last: 15% want most to dine with Sen. McCain, and for Sen. Biden, it was 7%.

Brainster
9th September 2008, 03:58 PM
To add to the above, from the CNN poll ...

Given those findings in the CNN, I don't see much support for McCain to have swung over so many white women over the past few weeks. CNN even has this for all women ...

The numbers just don't work for me, but they are two different polls.

I thought of a way to reconcile this. Let's assume that McCain is getting about 5% support among black women, who make up about 13% of all women. That doesn't seem unreasonably low; Republicans generally get about 10% support from blacks in general and I assume there's stronger than usual support for the Democrat this time around since he's black (partly) as well. And let's go with the ABC News/WaPo and say that McCain's support among white women is 52%. We'll say the remaining 87% are white; that's obviously slightly off because of Asian women, but I'd suspect they vote more like whites than blacks. What does that indicate about McCain's overall level of support?

Black women: 5%*13%=0.65%
White women:52%*87%=45.24%
Totals: 45.89%

This would indicate that McCain has the overall support of right around 46% of all women. Which means (with error margins) that Obama could be at 52%.

Brainster
9th September 2008, 04:04 PM
Interesting tidbit from the NBC poll ...

Yeah, but they only want to eat with Sarah because they've never had mooseburgers before! ;)

David Wong
9th September 2008, 04:41 PM
I love these "who would you like to have dinner with" questions. They should totally get more creative with those to explore the psyche of the voters.

"Which candidate would you prefer to be stuck on an elevator with for two hours?"

"Which candidate do you think you could win a wrestling match with?"

"Which candidate would you trust to make a batch of chili for your whole family?"

Brainster
9th September 2008, 05:04 PM
North Carolina moves strongly in the red column (http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065):

In an election for President of the United States in North Carolina Tuesday, Republican John McCain suddenly and breathtakingly surges to a 20-point win over Democrat Barack Obama, 58% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive SurveyUSA election poll conducted for ABC11-WTVD.

Of course, NC is a must-win for McCain and not for Obama. Still it helps McCain to have states like this taken off the board so he can concentrate on the usual battlegrounds.

671 likely voters, Sept 6-8. MOE not given but probably around 4.5%.

chipmunk stew
9th September 2008, 05:13 PM
North Carolina moves strongly in the red column (http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065):

Of course, NC is a must-win for McCain and not for Obama. Still it helps McCain to have states like this taken off the board so he can concentrate on the usual battlegrounds.

671 likely voters, Sept 6-8. MOE not given but probably around 4.5%.
Then again, if this pattern is repeated across the country and his bump is concentrated in states he's likely to take anyway, then it may be obscuring a much smaller electoral college bump, or even a dip.

Brainster
9th September 2008, 05:35 PM
Meanwhile, Obama seems to have locked up the global vote (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/09/2360240.htm?section=world):

More than 22,000 people were questioned by pollster GlobeScan in countries ranging from Australia to India and across Africa, Europe and South America.

The margin in favour of Senator Obama ranged from 9 per cent in India to 82 per cent in Kenya, while an average of 49 per cent across the 22 countries preferred Senator Obama compared with 12 per cent preferring Senator McCain. Some four in 10 did not take a view.

chipmunk stew
9th September 2008, 05:36 PM
Meanwhile, Obama seems to have locked up the global vote (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/09/2360240.htm?section=world):
Perhaps he can relight that beacon on the hill that Bush dowsed.

BenBurch
9th September 2008, 09:22 PM
Then again, if this pattern is repeated across the country and his bump is concentrated in states he's likely to take anyway, then it may be obscuring a much smaller electoral college bump, or even a dip.

Exactly, I do not give a damn about winning by popular vote. An electoral win is just fine, and that is what will be delivered.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 06:20 AM
I thought of a way to reconcile this. Let's assume that McCain is getting about 5% support among black women, who make up about 13% of all women. That doesn't seem unreasonably low; Republicans generally get about 10% support from blacks in general and I assume there's stronger than usual support for the Democrat this time around since he's black (partly) as well. And let's go with the ABC News/WaPo and say that McCain's support among white women is 52%. We'll say the remaining 87% are white; that's obviously slightly off because of Asian women, but I'd suspect they vote more like whites than blacks. What does that indicate about McCain's overall level of support?

Black women: 5%*13%=0.65%
White women:52%*87%=45.24%
Totals: 45.89%

This would indicate that McCain has the overall support of right around 46% of all women. Which means (with error margins) that Obama could be at 52%.

I can go with this. But, I still would like to know the margin of error for the white women sub-sample. Maybe some polls to come out over the next few weeks will measure this group better.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 06:45 AM
Rasmussen has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

A Washington Post poll generated comment yesterday by noting that White Women favor McCain. Rasmussen Reports polling has consistently shown a similar result, but it is important to note that there is nothing unusual about this finding. Four years ago, President Bush managed to defeat Senator John Kerry 55% to 44% among white women. Today’s tracking poll data shows McCain leading 51% to 44% among this group. Among all women, Obama leads by eight. Among men, McCain leads by eight.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 06:54 AM
North Carolina moves strongly in the red column (http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=news/politics&id=6380065):

Of course, NC is a must-win for McCain and not for Obama. Still it helps McCain to have states like this taken off the board so he can concentrate on the usual battlegrounds.

671 likely voters, Sept 6-8. MOE not given but probably around 4.5%.

Maybe not so strongly ...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_910.pdf

McCain now leads Barack Obama 48-44 after holding a three point lead in PPP’s previous survey. The Republican nominee is benefiting from undecided white voters moving into his column.

“With both conventions in the rear view mirror, North Carolina still appears to be competitive,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But it will probably take exceptional turnout from groups favorable to him to put Barack Obama over the top. He’s not going to win the state by persuading people who voted for Bush in 2004 to switch sides.”

David Wong
10th September 2008, 07:02 AM
Rasmussen has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

By the way, this whole phenomenon of the fading convention "bounce" like three days later makes me laugh. Are our attention spans that short?

How many millions did they spend on these conventions, and then voters completely forget about them like two days later?

David Wong
10th September 2008, 07:08 AM
The 20 point lead in NC is an outlier, it's too soon to show that kind of a surge and with too little reason.

Obama won't win the state, he was never going to. But I'd be really surprised if McCain won by double digits.

Wangler
10th September 2008, 07:10 AM
I can't find the values from the last few weeks, but fivethirtyeight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) has the projected electoral vote totals at 275.1 for Obama vs. 262.9 for McCain...I don't recall McCain every being that close!

Methinks this one is going to be tough to call.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 07:12 AM
By the way, this whole phenomenon of the fading convention "bounce" like three days later makes me laugh. Are our attention spans that short?

How many millions did they spend on these conventions, and then voters completely forget about them like two days later?

The conventions, while well done, were not all that memorable. Yes, Obama filled a stadium, but it's not the first time he's done that. Yes, a woman spoke as a VP nominee, but the novelty of that is not what it once was.

What I think is hurting McCain in exploiting any potential bounce is ... Palin. While she's been included in campaign appearances, it looks more and more like she's just a cheerleader and not a player ready for the big leagues. Yes, she can read a good speech, but they seem to be sheltering her ever since she was picked. It's sink or swim time, and she's still standing by the pool getting instructions from her swimming coaches. I think this is limiting any bounce McCain might could've had with her.

BenBurch
10th September 2008, 09:29 AM
Rasmussen has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

As does the NBC-WSJ poll.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 10:02 AM
Is Palin the cause for increased support for McCain among white women?

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/10/is-palin-influencing-white-women-2/

These numbers appear to contradict findings from a recently released Washington Post/ABC News poll that suggested the Arizona senator gained 20 points among white women after Palin joined the ticket and prompted several stories of the Illinois senator's new problem with this key demographic.

But the CNN/ORC poll indicates McCain is even more popular among white women than Palin is (69 vs. 65 percent approval) — evidence his support among that demographic may be attributed to his own appeal, not Palin's. Obama and Joe Biden are also popular with white women, though not to quite the same degree: 58 percent said they held a favorable view of Obama while 55 percent said the same of Biden in the latest poll.

"White women have a favorable view of Sarah Palin, but they have a favorable view of Barack Obama and Joe Biden as well," Holland said.

Interesting take on it.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 10:05 AM
Gallup has McCain still up by 5 today (48%-43%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110212/Gallup-Daily-McCain-48-Obama-43.aspx

However, the experience of the past summer suggests that voter support levels do not tend to change dramatically during periods of time in which there are no major campaign events. Additionally, it may take a few additional days before it is possible to determine if McCain's modest lead over Obama -- developed as a bounce out of the GOP convention -- will be sustained, or if it will fade.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 10:07 AM
One note regarding Gallup that I was mistaken about (not sure if I stated it here or not though), they don't weight their poll for party affiliation.

David Wong
10th September 2008, 11:03 AM
Unless I'm counting wrong, five days after the DNC Obama was up by 6 (49-43). Five days after the RNC, McCain is up by 5.

Obama's bounce faded three days later, but of course the RNC helped it fade.

Pookster
10th September 2008, 11:37 AM
Unless I'm counting wrong, five days after the DNC Obama was up by 6 (49-43). Five days after the RNC, McCain is up by 5.

Obama's bounce faded three days later, but of course the RNC helped it fade.

I'd take Gallup very cautiously. It could well just be their methodology that creates these kinds of swings. I don't think Obama was up by 8, just as I don't think McCain is up by 5 now. I think Rasmussen is probably the better indicator of what bounces there might have been.

Brainster
10th September 2008, 12:03 PM
Not sure what has caused this movement at InTrade; about the only thing I can surmise is that McCain's continued lead in Gallup is causing the traders to rate the race as a toss-up:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_977748c818db2536c.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13758)

Easily the closest McCain has been to leading over there.

Brainster
10th September 2008, 12:19 PM
Two days later than I predicted:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_977748c81d80cc62e.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13759)

Like I said, I'm not sure what's driving this today. Psychological barrier pierced?

Wangler
10th September 2008, 01:31 PM
Not sure what has caused this movement at InTrade; about the only thing I can surmise is that McCain's continued lead in Gallup is causing the traders to rate the race as a toss-up:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_977748c818db2536c.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13758)

Easily the closest McCain has been to leading over there.

Yep,

This prediction market has been very volitile (maybe they all have), and I wouldn't expect McCain to actually lead until a debate has been concluded (assuming he "bested" his opponent).

I think that it would take some serious event for McCain to have a long-duration 10-20 point prediction market lead like Obama had for quite a while.

Wangler
10th September 2008, 01:32 PM
Two days later than I predicted:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_977748c81d80cc62e.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13759)

Like I said, I'm not sure what's driving this today. Psychological barrier pierced?

Anticipation for the first Palin interview?

chipmunk stew
10th September 2008, 01:43 PM
Anticipation for the first Palin interview?
Republican bettors thinking they have a winner with the Lipstick on a Pig non-troversy?

MattusMaximus
10th September 2008, 06:51 PM
One note regarding Gallup that I was mistaken about (not sure if I stated it here or not though), they don't weight their poll for party affiliation.

Ah, this is something which I've wondered about for some time. I now know that Rasmussen does weight for party affiliation (thanks Wangler - or was it Brainster - well, you know who you are ;) )

I, too, have been cautious about some of the polls for this very reason. The question of methodology is very important, not only regarding party affiliation but also making phone calls to cellphone users. Many younger people don't have a land line and many polls don't call cellphones, so that cuts out a potentially large chunk in the polling.

What was it that someone said about damned lies & statistics?

MattusMaximus
10th September 2008, 06:58 PM
Two days later than I predicted:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_977748c81d80cc62e.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13759)

Like I said, I'm not sure what's driving this today. Psychological barrier pierced?

I saw that too. It's damned weird, because when I look at NewsFutures and the Iowa Electronic Markets I see something completely different...

NewsFutures (http://news.us.newsfutures.com/election2008.html)
Obama 57%
McCain 43%

IEM - WTA (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 56.6%
McCain 44.3%

What the hell is going on here? Up until this week, all the prediction markets that I followed (including Rasmussen and Intrade) all pretty much had the same numbers (within error) and trends. But now we've got two major prediction markets with Obama below or even with McCain, while two other major markets are little changed from last week.

Can anyone here sort this out for me? I am terribly confused at what I'm seeing here. If I cannot figure this out, I don't know how to trust anything that I'm seeing, whether it's in the polls or the markets.

Urrrgggghhh... :boggled:

MattusMaximus
10th September 2008, 07:03 PM
Yep,

This prediction market has been very volitile (maybe they all have), and I wouldn't expect McCain to actually lead until a debate has been concluded (assuming he "bested" his opponent).

It seems the volatility that you've noted is limited only to Intrade and market outlets that get feeds from Intrade (such as Rasmussen). As I noted in my post above, the IEM and NewsFutures markets are pretty much stable as they were late last week, putting Obama ahead on WTA by 12-15 points.

I think that it would take some serious event for McCain to have a long-duration 10-20 point prediction market lead like Obama had for quite a while.

I agree, but I am beginning to wonder about Intrade. Do they have something different in the manner in which they run their market as compared to others such as IEM? I know that IEM has a cap of \$500 per trader so that no one person can swing the market drastically - are there any such safeguards over at Intrade?

For that matter, are the numbers we're seeing at Intrade the WTA prediction? Or are they vote-share? I'd always thought they were WTA.

Wangler
10th September 2008, 10:26 PM
All good questions, Maximus.

These polls and PM's can give you a headache!

Pookster
11th September 2008, 05:29 AM
Two days later than I predicted:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_977748c81d80cc62e.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13759)

Like I said, I'm not sure what's driving this today. Psychological barrier pierced?

Could some be buying McCain shares anticipating/gambling they would go up in price? Basically, are people lining up at the gas pump and filling up at the current price before the hurricane potentially disrupts the supply causing prices to rise?

Pookster
11th September 2008, 05:34 AM
I, too, have been cautious about some of the polls for this very reason. The question of methodology is very important, not only regarding party affiliation but also making phone calls to cellphone users. Many younger people don't have a land line and many polls don't call cellphones, so that cuts out a potentially large chunk in the polling.

We all should use a critical eye when looking at any poll. Weighting for political affiliation carries it's own issues, just as not weighting. The same goes for the cell phone issue. Some account for it when they don't actually call cell phones. It's not an exact science. It's why there are margins of error and confidence levels released with each poll.

Pookster
11th September 2008, 06:11 AM
State poll fun ...

Ohio: Tuesday, Fox/Rasmussen has McCain up by 7 (51%-44%). Today, Quinnipiac has Obama up by 5% (49%-44%)

Florida: Tuesday, Fox/Rasmussen has it at a tie (48%-48%). Today, Quinnipiac has McCain up by 7 (50%-43%)

You gotta love it. :D

Pookster
11th September 2008, 06:40 AM
Rasmussen has the race tied again (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

McCain is now viewed favorably by 56% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 55% (see trends). Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 56%, Joe Biden by 53%.

Yesterday, for the first time ever, Rasmussen Markets data gave McCain a better than 50% chance of winning the White House in November. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently give Obama a 49.0 % chance of victory. Prior to this past weekend, expectations for a Democratic victory had generally been in the 60% range.

MattusMaximus
11th September 2008, 09:25 AM
State poll fun ...

Ohio: Tuesday, Fox/Rasmussen has McCain up by 7 (51%-44%). Today, Quinnipiac has Obama up by 5% (49%-44%)

Florida: Tuesday, Fox/Rasmussen has it at a tie (48%-48%). Today, Quinnipiac has McCain up by 7 (50%-43%)

You gotta love it. :D

Good gawd, we might as well just consult a damned Magic-Eight Ball (http://sfbay.redfin.com/blog/files/2008/06/magic8ball.gif) :rolleyes:

Well, until anyone can tell me what the hell is going on with Intrade, I'm going to follow the Iowa Prediction Market. They've been at the prediction market business longer than anyone & seem to be the gold standard. And they've also got safeguards in place to prevent the kind of overly-slanted trading to which Pookster is referring - i.e. by limiting each trader to \$500 total they make sure that single individuals cannot dominate the market and thus cause crazy swings.

Today's IEM-WTA (as of now):

Obama 55.3
McCain 45.2

Pookster
11th September 2008, 10:06 AM
Gallup's take on party affiliation changes since the conventions ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110215/GOP-Increase-Party-After-Convention-Unusual.aspx

The percentage of Americans identifying themselves as Republicans has increased from 26% immediately before last week's Republican National Convention began to 30% immediately after it. That increase, combined with a slight 2-point drop in Democratic identification from 37% to 35%, has reduced the Democrats' formidable advantage in national party identification from 11 points to 5.

Such short-term shifts in party affiliation are a regular occurrence after a party's convention -- Gallup has measured an increase in the percentage of Americans identifying with a party after its convention since 1992, averaging 4 percentage points.

Each party has enjoyed an increase in leaned party identification after its convention, with the exception of this year's Democratic convention. That may reflect the already-high percentage of Americans identifying with or leaning to the Democratic Party this year before its convention began.

But are those increases temporary, or do they have some staying power? In general, it appears that the increases are short-lived and fade as the enthusiasm from the convention subsides.

Since 1996, the percentage of Americans who identify with or lean to a party has dropped in the poll after that year's post-convention poll for each party. So to the extent history is a guide, Gallup's next survey would likely show a slight drop in the percentage of Americans identifying with or leaning to the Republican Party.

Pookster
11th September 2008, 10:42 AM
Gallup has McCain up by 4 today (48%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110227/Gallup-Daily-McCain-48-Obama-44.aspx

In addition, since Sept. 5 -- the first night after the Republican National Convention -- he has outpolled Obama in each of the last six individual night's polling. That consistent pattern in the night-to-night data suggests that McCain has a stable lead for now.

Brainster
12th September 2008, 08:30 AM
Rasmussen finally shows the bounce (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll). McCain up three percentage points both with and without leaners. Interesting comment from them about the moving average:

It is unusual to find a three-point jump in one day on the tracking poll. Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s gain for McCain comes partly from a good night of polling last night and partly from the fact that a good night for Obama on Monday is no longer part of the sample.

Foolmewunz
12th September 2008, 08:44 AM
The states that are turning into batlegrounds this week should really worry the Democrats. Michigan? Pennsylvania?

This is not good.

The RCP average this morning (evening over here) is awash with red ink.

David Wong
12th September 2008, 09:31 AM

The only one I can think of where one guy never had a sustained lead was Dole in 1996, you had weird outlier polls putting him ahead but otherwise it was all Clinton, and that's the only election of my life that went that way.

Even those sure McCain would lose, should have expected him to lead at some stretch of the race. The wake of the RNC and VP pick is right where you'd expect it.

This will be a close race; there's a really good chance that on election day, the leader won't even be outside the margin of error. We could easily go in with McCain up by 2 or Obama up by 2 and basically watching to see which party gets the best turnout.

Jimbo07
12th September 2008, 09:38 AM
This will be a close race; there's a really good chance that on election day, the leader won't even be outside the margin of error. We could easily go in with McCain up by 2 or Obama up by 2 and basically watching to see which party gets the best turnout.

Dateline, Nov. 2008 - In an entirely unprecedented move, the election is decided by the courts... :D

David Wong
12th September 2008, 10:29 AM
McCain's bounce continues to erode on Gallup, down to 3 now:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110266/Gallup-Daily-McCain-48-Obama-45.aspx

Obama was up by 2 a week after his convention, McCain finds himself up by 3 a week after his. Seems to mirror pretty closely then.

chipmunk stew
12th September 2008, 05:54 PM

The only one I can think of where one guy never had a sustained lead was Dole in 1996, you had weird outlier polls putting him ahead but otherwise it was all Clinton, and that's the only election of my life that went that way.

Even those sure McCain would lose, should have expected him to lead at some stretch of the race. The wake of the RNC and VP pick is right where you'd expect it.

This will be a close race; there's a really good chance that on election day, the leader won't even be outside the margin of error. We could easily go in with McCain up by 2 or Obama up by 2 and basically watching to see which party gets the best turnout.
While Kerry may have been up on some polls, they were clearly outliers. Check out this graph:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Compare that to this year (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html), and Obama's looking pretty damn good.

David Wong
12th September 2008, 06:08 PM
While Kerry may have been up on some polls, they were clearly outliers. Check out this graph:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Compare that to this year (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html), and Obama's looking pretty damn good.

Look at 2004 again. Kerry leads routinely, including through July and August... until the calendar turns September. Then Bush takes the lead and never lets it go.

Now look at this year. Obama lead through summer, but ever since the calendar has flipped to September...

gdnp
12th September 2008, 06:28 PM
Compare that to this year (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html), and Obama's looking pretty damn good.

I agree. The bounce hasn't finished bouncing, and most of the spreads are within the margins of error. The economy is unlikely to improve before the election. Iraq is going well enough it would be hard for it to improve more, thus the surge is unlikely to give McCain more bounce, and legitimizing Obama's call for withdrawing troops. If things turn sour, it is hard to imagine the population would support another escalation. I expect Obama to at least hold his own in the debates. So I see a lot of ways the scales could tip back to Obama and not so many that would tip them towards McCain.

Palin remains a wildcard. I don't expect her to win over too many more converts, the question is whether her celebrity will fade before or after the election. The potential for a major gaffe or scandal remains real. I still think that Palin is poorly qualified to be vice president. Then again, I also think reality TV is incredibly stupid, and SOMEONE has been watching those shows.

All in all, I'd be happier if Obama was comfortably ahead, but I'm not panicking yet.

gdnp
12th September 2008, 06:33 PM
Look at 2004 again. Kerry leads routinely, including through July and August... until the calendar turns September. Then Bush takes the lead and never lets it go.

Now look at this year. Obama lead through summer, but ever since the calendar has flipped to September...

The difference is that Bush opened up a 6-7 point lead through September that faded in October, and ended up winning by 1.5%. McCain's lead now seems to be closer to 3%, so a similar 4-5 point swing between now and election day would put Obama back ahead.

David Wong
12th September 2008, 07:23 PM
I don't think Obama supporters should panic either, but this country does generally prefer Republican presidents. I wonder if this wasn't a situation where the undecideds gave Obama a chance but in reality were looking for any reason at all to fall back to the comfortable choice in McCain.

chipmunk stew
13th September 2008, 04:36 AM
Look at 2004 again. Kerry leads routinely, including through July and August... until the calendar turns September. Then Bush takes the lead and never lets it go.

Now look at this year. Obama lead through summer, but ever since the calendar has flipped to September...
Bush led Kerry by about 6-7 points through September. Kerry closed that to about 2-4 points in October. In the last few days, McCain's had Obama by about 2-3 points, which, coming off a convention, is probably a peak. I'm still not worried.

edit: In other words--
The difference is that Bush opened up a 6-7 point lead through September that faded in October, and ended up winning by 1.5%. McCain's lead now seems to be closer to 3%, so a similar 4-5 point swing between now and election day would put Obama back ahead.
:)

Undesired Walrus
13th September 2008, 05:06 AM
It's worth bearing in mind that Kerry only needed 118,776 more votes in Ohio and he would have won the Presidency.

Foolmewunz
13th September 2008, 07:21 AM
It's worth bearing in mind that Kerry only needed 118,776 more votes in Ohio and he would have won the Presidency.

That's Ohio, the state where McCain is leading?

I've been in panic mode since December when it was apparent that it was either Hill or Obama, the two juiciest targets for the Republican war machine*. I'm still worried. Everyone's looking at poll history and I'm looking at the Dems repeated ability to shoot themselves in the foot in years when the White House is theirs for the taking. And I fear it's happening again.

Again, with Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and even Pennsylvania back "in play", the scenario is worrisome. The current "leaning to" map looks remarkably like the very successful Southern/Western strategy still holding forth.

ETA: * Oops. I forgot I'm in Politics... I'm not referring to them as NWO type war mongers. I meant it as a metaphor for "political wars".

MattusMaximus
13th September 2008, 03:11 PM
It's worth bearing in mind that Kerry only needed 118,776 more votes in Ohio and he would have won the Presidency.

This is a good point. Also, recall that the Democrats have registered something insane like 2 million new people in their party nationwide since the beginning of the year, and they're still going gangbusters on that, while the GOP has actually lost people. Not to mention the large number of younger voters who are enthusiastic about Obama.

As someone already noted, the real key is turnout and GOTV in the days leading up to the election. That will decide the winner more than anything, and at this stage it seems like a real wild card, but for reasons like I mentioned above I think the Dems have the advantage on this.

Despite some recent hand-wringing among some Dems, I do believe that Obama is in a much better spot now than Kerry was at this point in 2004. Here's my reasoning...

- Kerry's campaign didn't fight back against the "swift-boating" until it was too late. Obama's not making this mistake.

- Kerry was not inspiring to many Dems. Obama clearly is.

- Kerry didn't come across well in public speeches. Obama does.

- George Bush and the GOP worked with many states to ban gay marriage in 2004 which really drove up the GOTV efforts for their side. This year no such issue exists and despite the "Palin effect" the GOP base still isn't as excited as they were in 2004.

- And despite all those things stacked against Kerry and in Bush's favor, Bush still only won by one state - Ohio. And that was only by about 120,000 votes.

All in all, as an Obama supporter, I'm pretty happy right now. Especially since both Clintons are starting to stump & raise cash for Obama, and Obama's campaign is getting back on message and attacking McCain where it hurts...

R3F18zVblJ8

H-ae409tJEI

One last point, the current status on the Iowa Electronic Market (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html):

Vote-share
Obama 52.0
McCain 48.8

WTA
Obama 54.5
McCain 46.2

MattusMaximus
13th September 2008, 03:21 PM
That's Ohio, the state where McCain is leading?

For now. Wait a week. Polls can be hard to read, as many here attest.

I've been in panic mode since December when it was apparent that it was either Hill or Obama, the two juiciest targets for the Republican war machine*. I'm still worried. Everyone's looking at poll history and I'm looking at the Dems repeated ability to shoot themselves in the foot in years when the White House is theirs for the taking. And I fear it's happening again.

This attitude from some of my fellow Democrats has always pissed me off! We get a slight drop in the polls and some people start wringing their hands and lamenting that "it's over!" You act like Karl Rove is going to pull some magic wand out of his ass and wave it - "Poof!" the GOP wins!

Give me a break. Hand-wringing and worrying does absolutely nothing useful to get Obama elected. Nothing.

Do something useful instead - donate money, volunteer to phonebank, canvass, register new voters, pass on relevant info to friends & family via the Internet, write letters to papers, etc.

But don't sit around wasting your time & energy worrying! Worrying is for losers. I'm going to work to be a winner, damn it.

Again, with Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and even Pennsylvania back "in play", the scenario is worrisome. The current "leaning to" map looks remarkably like the very successful Southern/Western strategy still holding forth.

Again, that is the state of some polls now. Wait a week. The mere fact that Obama is even challenging McCain in many of those western states is a testament to the problems he's giving the GOP. In 2004, would anyone have thought that Kerry even had a chance in hell of getting those western states? No way. We are in a better spot than in 2004 - way better.

ETA: * Oops. I forgot I'm in Politics... I'm not referring to them as NWO type war mongers. I meant it as a metaphor for "political wars".

I prefer to think of it as a form of psychological warfare. They are trying to psyche you out. Don't buy into it, because if that happens to enough rank-and-file Dems then you hand them the election on a silver platter.

applecorped
13th September 2008, 03:28 PM
I'm going to work to be a winner, damn it.

That should be Obama's mantra!

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_2391548cc3e71e0c53.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13791)

MattusMaximus
13th September 2008, 03:31 PM
While Kerry may have been up on some polls, they were clearly outliers. Check out this graph:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

Compare that to this year (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html), and Obama's looking pretty damn good.

No doubt about it, Obama's in a damned good position. Not as good as he was a month ago, but still good.

For further evidence of this, just look at the Iowa Electronic Market (http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/) for 2004 vs. the current race.

2004 Race: Vote-Share (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_VS.cfm) and WTA (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm)
Current Race: Vote-Share (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_VS.cfm) and WTA (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm)

Obama is clearly in the better position. Historical context can really help cut through a lot of the smoke and mirrors here.

MattusMaximus
13th September 2008, 03:32 PM
That should be Obama's mantra!

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_2391548cc3e71e0c53.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13791)

Well, my attitude is I'd rather fight like hell and lose, going down swinging, than just worry my way to defeat.

applecorped
13th September 2008, 03:36 PM
Well, my attitude is I'd rather fight like hell and lose, going down swinging, than just worry my way to defeat.

If only the majority of Democrats thought as you do perhaps they would win more. :)

MattusMaximus
13th September 2008, 03:37 PM
If only the majority of Democrats thought as you do perhaps they would win more. :)

Exactly my point. It worked for us in 2006, and it can work again in 2008.

Wangler
13th September 2008, 05:24 PM
Hand-wringing and worrying does absolutely nothing useful to get Obama elected. Nothing.

Do something useful instead - donate money, volunteer to phonebank, canvass, register new voters, pass on relevant info to friends & family via the Internet, write letters to papers, etc.

But don't sit around wasting your time & energy worrying! Worrying is for losers. I'm going to work to be a winner, damn it.

Mattus,

If I could interject here, these are very good points, and good advice. I realize that JREF is a bit skewed from real world, but it does accurately mirror real world in some respects.

I see lots of action (from both sides) here recently that does not produce anything useful.

There have been many. many posts, and treasure hunts, looking for a super-powerful knockout punch on Sarah Palin, for example.

If all that time and energy would be put into hammering her and McCain about issues, issues, issues, policy, issues and issues, I think Obama would be sitting better right now.

If you want your guy Obama to win, look past the lipstick, moose-mom veneer, and go for what counts.

Same for GOP'ers: no more veteran ads to tug at heartstrings, give lipstick a rest, and concentrate on contrasting yourself with Obama, and win.

I think it's going to happen, but don't wait!

Finally, I'm hoping that not too many Democrats pay heed to your sensible approach!

;)

Foolmewunz
13th September 2008, 08:29 PM
Mattus,

Good for you and your energy. I don't have time to do all that much, but making sure I get the Democrats Abroad to vote is about as good as gets over here. I used to not bother, because I'm registered in New York and there's no way the Dems are in any danger there (and my riding is in Manhattan, so not even a concern on local issues). But, I've got expat friends here from the midwest and NJ (which is also coming far down for Obama this week), and I try to make sure I get them registered and voting. Problem is, over here the US expats are about 75% Dem, it seems. At the AmCham breakfast last election day, they took a straw poll in the room and Kerry took it in a landslide (69% to 24% with 7% not wanting to respond). As a result, they're a little complacent. The shock in that room when Kerry lost was a lesson to them, I hope. Many hadn't even cast their absentee ballots - it was going to be a cakewalk.

I'm an old activist from way back. I'm also a realist, though, and I've seen what fighting over that two foot patch of turf "in the middle" can do to Presidential campaigns. If Obama addresses the smears - good! I'd rather, though, that he addresses the genetic smear; that he stands up there and says, "Yes, I'm a Liberal. Like Lincoln, Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Johnson." We have a tradition of liberalism in this country and it's time for people to stop hiding from the Rush and Ann demonizers.

The last national politician I saw willing to address the country in that way was Mario Cuomo in the awesome speech at the DNC. Mobilizing the young is good. Mobilizing the 40+ warriors from the Anti-War, Civil Rights, Voter Rights and ERA fights is a winning strategy, though. Can Obama do it? It's the battle for the GOTV crowd. And it's where the Republican Southern Strategy has pulled them through every time. (This is the real danger of Pallin - not that she's a cartoon character conservative, but that she now gets the car pool drivers out there on election day - they weren't coming before, and Joe Biden ain't doing it for the Dems, so Barack's got to.)

gdnp
13th September 2008, 08:45 PM
I feel much better this evening. I asked my US magazine reading/American Idol watching/America's next top model following 16 year old daughter what she thought of Sarah Palin. She says she watched the first half of the ABC interview and Palin looked completely clueless and confused, was blathering incoherently, and sounds totally unprepared to be vice president. If she were a judge, Palin would be voted off the show.

Wangler
13th September 2008, 10:21 PM
I feel much better this evening. I asked my US magazine reading/American Idol watching/America's next top model following 16 year old daughter what she thought of Sarah Palin. She says she watched the first half of the ABC interview and Palin looked completely clueless and confused, was blathering incoherently, and sounds totally unprepared to be vice president. If she were a judge, Palin would be voted off the show.

.............which is precisely why we have a minimum voting age.

:D

Wangler
13th September 2008, 10:30 PM
Seems as if McCain's post convention bounce has some legs, according to www.fivethirtyeight.com (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com):

Although we think that John McCain may still be in the midst of some sort of convention bump, so far there has been no real letting up of his improved performance in state-level polling:

Undesired Walrus
14th September 2008, 12:25 AM
Gallup has closed it to a 2-point lead for McCain today. Yesterday it was 3-points, the day before it was 4-points.

MattusMaximus
14th September 2008, 11:21 AM
Gallup has closed it to a 2-point lead for McCain today. Yesterday it was 3-points, the day before it was 4-points.

Within the margin of error. So, as predicted, both convention bounces have faded and we're into the thick of the race. At least, according to Gallup.

Meh :cool:

I'm off to go phonebank for my Democratic congressional candidate now.

Btw, the latest from the Iowa Electronic Market (http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/quotes.cfm):

Vote-share: Obama 52.1 McCain 48.5

WTA: Obama 55.2 McCain 46.0

BenBurch
14th September 2008, 08:44 PM
Gallup has closed it to a 2-point lead for McCain today. Yesterday it was 3-points, the day before it was 4-points.

My guess it that it will hover at 2 for a day or so before going to one and then dead even.

Jimbo07
15th September 2008, 12:07 PM
My guess it that it will hover at 2 for a day or so before going to one and then dead even.

It seems to be at 2 today, with speculation that the race has stabilized at this level...

David Wong
15th September 2008, 02:33 PM
Could it be that the campaign will actually be decided on the debates? That would be great, not because I think Obama will win them (not sure he will) but because it'd be cool to decide it based on that rather than on some silly pseudo-scandal or some dishonest ad campaign.

Wangler
15th September 2008, 02:56 PM
Could it be that the campaign will actually be decided on the debates? That would be great, not because I think Obama will win them (not sure he will) but because it'd be cool to decide it based on that rather than on some silly pseudo-scandal or some dishonest ad campaign.

David, I think that the election will be decided on the debates.

The bad news, I think, is that there won't be some policy epiphany spouted by one of the candidates that tips the scales, it will likely be some sort of sound-bite pwning or a gaffe.

gdnp
15th September 2008, 03:13 PM
Please. Debates? They may switch a few people one way or another, but there will be plenty of sound bites, attack adds, gaffes, swiftboating, etc. before and after the debates. It is unlikely that they will be "make or break" unless there is a huge gaffe of the "no Russians in Poland" magnitude.

Pookster
16th September 2008, 06:47 AM
Rasmussen has McCain up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

So, the race is basically tied now as it was at the start of the Democratic National Convention (44%-44%), but the number of undecideds are much fewer now.

This is the third straight day Obama has been at 47% while McCain has dropped a point on each of the past two days. One week ago, the candidates were tied at 48%

Now that the Palin/convention bounce is behind us, we have the debates in front of us as possible critical moments for those undecideds (and those not firmly committed to either candidate). However, issues like the economy may begin to take a much larger spotlight, especially with the latest news, making it more difficult to attribute changes in the polls to any one thing.

Brainster
16th September 2008, 08:31 AM
Within the margin of error. So, as predicted, both convention bounces have faded and we're into the thick of the race. At least, according to Gallup.

Meh :cool:

I'm off to go phonebank for my Democratic congressional candidate now.

Btw, the latest from the Iowa Electronic Market (http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/quotes.cfm):

Vote-share: Obama 52.1 McCain 48.5

WTA: Obama 55.2 McCain 46.0

Hmmm, InTrade has McCain up 51.9 to 46.5; sounds like people should buy Obama at InTrade and McCain at IEM. Of course, transaction fees at InTrade would probably eat up any arbitrage you could get. I strongly suspect, though I can't prove it right now, that the trading volume is much higher at InTrade.

David Wong
16th September 2008, 10:46 AM
Gallup also has McCain's lead down to 1.

Once that one-week mark passed (that is, a week after the RNC) every poll fell into a virtual tie (Newsweek has a tie, another tracking poll has Obama by 1, Gallup and Rasmussen have McCain up by 1).

MattusMaximus
16th September 2008, 08:41 PM
Hmmm, InTrade has McCain up 51.9 to 46.5; sounds like people should buy Obama at InTrade and McCain at IEM. Of course, transaction fees at InTrade would probably eat up any arbitrage you could get. I strongly suspect, though I can't prove it right now, that the trading volume is much higher at InTrade.

Is there any kind of trading limit at Intrade? I know that IEM has imposed a limit of \$500 per trader so that no one person can dominate the market and cause big swings, which is why I tend to trust them more. I know of no such safeguards at Intrade.

In addition, I see that NewsFutures (http://us.newsfutures.com/) isn't following the Intrade trend, either. They currently have...

Obama 54%
McCain 46%

... which is consistent with IEM-WTA numbers.

I'm disturbed by this because up until about one week ago, I had been tracking all of these markets and they were relatively consistent and it gave me some sense of being able to trust them. But then suddenly Intrade had Obama dropping bigtime while McCain rose above 50%, yet there was no such drastic change at IEM. And the similar change that did occur over at NewsFutures seems to have corrected back to the current numbers.

What gives over at Intrade? Any ideas?

MattusMaximus
16th September 2008, 08:47 PM
Btw, it seems that some polls are indicating that the new-candidate-shine is beginning to wear off Sarah Palin...

Palin's Favorability Ratings Begin to Falter (http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/09/16/palin-s-favorability-ratings-begin-to-falter.aspx)

... The polls reflected the early success of her strategy. In the three days after Palin joined Team McCain--Aug. 29-31--32 percent of voters told the pollsters at Diageo/Hotline that they had a favorable opinion of her; most (48 percent) didn't know enough to say. (The Diageo/Hotline poll is conducted by Financial Dynamics opinion research; it's the only daily tracking poll to regularly publish approval ratings.) By Sept. 4, however, 43 percent of Diageo/Hotline respondents approved of Palin with only 25 percent disapproving--an 18-point split. Apparently, voters were liking what they were hearing. Four days later, Palin's approval rating had climbed to 47 percent (+17), and by Sept. 13 it had hit 52 percent. The gap at that point between her favorable and unfavorable numbers--22 percent--was larger than either McCain's (+20) or Obama's (+13).

But then a funny thing happened: Palin seems to have lost some of her luster. Since Sept. 13, Palin's unfavorables have climbed from 30 percent to 36 percent. Meanwhile, her favorables have slipped from 52 percent to 48 percent. That's a three-day net swing of -10 points, and it leaves her in the Sept. 15 Diageo/Hotline tracking poll tied for the smallest favorability split (+12)** of any of the Final Four. Over the course of a single weekend, in other words, Palin went from being the most popular White House hopeful to the least. ...

If this is the beginning of a trend, it doesn't bode well for the GOP. Time will tell.

MattusMaximus
16th September 2008, 08:56 PM
Incidentally, if you know anyone who isn't sure they're registered to vote, wants to know more about voting absentee, or where their polling place is located, share this one-stop website with them...

Vote For Change (http://www.voteforchange.com)

Full disclosure: It's a site run by Obama's campaign, so you'll likely get email from them. Does McCain have something similar to which GOP folk can go? If not, you can still get the relevant info from the Obama site, and you can just ignore the emails I suppose.

BenBurch
16th September 2008, 09:06 PM
Gallup also has McCain's lead down to 1.

Once that one-week mark passed (that is, a week after the RNC) every poll fell into a virtual tie (Newsweek has a tie, another tracking poll has Obama by 1, Gallup and Rasmussen have McCain up by 1).

About as I predicted, you will note.

Mr Randi, make that check payable to...

Wangler
16th September 2008, 09:06 PM
Mattus,

Good point.

The McCain website for registration is here (https://secure.johnmccain.com/ActionCenter/registertovote/information.aspx).

Now that I look with fresh eyes, there is a voter registration link box on the regular McCain webpage (http://www.johnmccain.com/Home3.htm) too.

FULL DISCLOSURE: I am a Republican, and John McCain did not approve this message.

BenBurch
16th September 2008, 09:07 PM
Everybody should register to vote and Everybody should vote.

gdnp
16th September 2008, 09:38 PM
Everybody should register to vote and Everybody should vote.

I disagree. Those who can't be bothered to learn about the candidates and issues should stay home. I routinely skip voting in elections for county clerk, etc. where I know nothing about the issues or the candidates running. Let those who think they can make an informed decision do so.

Wangler
16th September 2008, 09:48 PM
I disagree. Those who can't be bothered to learn about the candidates and issues should stay home. I routinely skip voting in elections for county clerk, etc. where I know nothing about the issues or the candidates running. Let those who think they can make an informed decision do so.

Not sure that you could make that work, more of a thought experiment about how to get folks better educated to make a good voting decision.

gdnp
16th September 2008, 09:51 PM
I think there should just be a simple informational pamphlet: "for Democrats, presidentail balloting will be held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. For Republicans, it will be held the following Thursday". ;)

SezMe
16th September 2008, 10:28 PM
My ugly bias has it that if Obama is not up by 5 points at the end of October, he's dead meat. Maybe even 10. Conclusion: McCain by ~7.

Foolmewunz
17th September 2008, 12:05 AM
Actually, for those of us over here, it's dang near too late - we better already be registered if we're not in the US. The application, through the FVAP, to get your ballot in time has to already be en route if you plan to vote and BE SURE you get counted. They now have a "write-in" absentee ballot, which is actually an on-line form that you can fill out, sign, have witnessed(if necessary), and send back. This is to prevent any state officials from, say, deciding that there are too many Democrats in the Peace Corps or too many Republicans in the Armed Services and thus kinda sorta forget to send them their ballots in time.

If you're an American overseas, please, whatever side you're on in this one (and any election).... get registered and send in your application for your ballot now. If you're including a registration (first-time or renewal), PLEASE DO SO TODAY. You're right up against the deadline and you're running out of time.

David Wong
17th September 2008, 08:33 AM
Reuters/Zogby has Obama up by 2:

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1642854220080917

That seems to be an especially volatile poll, so once again I cast a suspicious eye on their "likely voter" voodoo.

Rasmussen still has McCain up by 1.

That "Hotline Diageo" poll that RCP includes how has Obama up by 4, but I've never heard of that operation so who knows. Only 900 in their sample size so I tend to disregard it.

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091608release.pdf

Wangler
17th September 2008, 09:23 AM
Intrade has Obama in the lead this morning, 50.2 to 49.3 over McCain.

David Wong
17th September 2008, 10:16 AM
Gallup has Obama up by 2 as well.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx

Now this feels more familiar. It's pretty much like the conventions and VP picks didn't happen.

The only difference is the undecides pool is smaller, but the undecides broke exactly the same way as the decides, keeping the ratio the same.

Pookster
17th September 2008, 10:32 AM
Gallup has Obama up by 2 as well.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110446/Gallup-Daily-Obama-47-McCain-45.aspx

Now this feels more familiar. It's pretty much like the conventions and VP picks didn't happen.

The only difference is the undecides pool is smaller, but the undecides broke exactly the same way as the decides, keeping the ratio the same.

Interesting discussion from the article ...

Today's report includes two days of interviewing conducted after reports of the collapse of Wall Street financial institutions and changes in the stock market began to dominate the news on Monday. Gallup Poll Daily tracking data show that in each of these individual days (Monday and Tuesday) consumer ratings of the U.S. economy have become more negative. Similarly, in each of these individual days' interviewing, Obama has led McCain in election tracking. There is thus a correlation between the bad financial news and Obama's gains, although the data do not allow us to conclude definitively that there is a causal connection between the two.

Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

Gnu World Order
17th September 2008, 11:02 AM
Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

That, and I think the wild over-reaction to the lipstick/pig thing really sped up the process of people getting tired of Sarah Palin.

varwoche
17th September 2008, 11:48 AM
Looks like the RealClearPolitics aggregate streams (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/) are on the verge of crossing again. :)

David Wong
17th September 2008, 12:24 PM
Looks like the RealClearPolitics aggregate streams (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/) are on the verge of crossing again. :)

The only thing keeping McCain in the lead is they're still counting week-old polls taken when the convention bounce was at its peak.

MattusMaximus
17th September 2008, 04:08 PM
Intrade has Obama in the lead this morning, 50.2 to 49.3 over McCain.

Obama 50.9
McCain 48.6

with Obama rising and McCain dropping. It seems like Intrade is slowly coming into line with the other prediction markets.

Speaking of which...

Iowa Electronic Market-WTA (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)

Obama 59.4
McCain 41.5

Obama 54
McCain 46

Looks like McCain is in trouble. Now that the Palin-shine is starting to wear off, his convention bounce is gone, and people are starting to really pay attention to the issues (read: the economy), this is definitely bad news for the GOP going into the end of September.

I will point out that in 2004 it was the GOP which was dominating by this point in the election. This was when the swift-boating of Kerry was at its most intense. By contrast, it is obvious the McCain campaign which is on the defensive now, for a variety of reasons (think economy is sound, lipstick, and BlackBerry - for instance), and I think that unless Obama does something majorly stupid (such as eating a baby live on TV) it seems it is his race to win.

David Wong
17th September 2008, 04:43 PM
CBS News/NY Times has Obama up by 5:

http://www.cbsnews.com/htdocs/pdf/Sep08b-Elec.pdf

That's Likely Voters, and they skew toward Obama. That's the poll that had Obama up by 8 after the DNC, and only had McCain up by 2 at the height of his bounce. So they seem to give 3 points or so to Obama beyond what everybody else has.

MattusMaximus
17th September 2008, 04:48 PM
Interesting discussion from the article ...

Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

No, according to Gallup, Obama has had an edge over McCain on the economy all along (last I saw two weeks ago it was a 52-40 split). McCain's recent screwups (they seem to be legion) have only made it that much worse for his campaign.

Pookster
17th September 2008, 05:08 PM
No, according to Gallup, Obama has had an edge over McCain on the economy all along (last I saw two weeks ago it was a 52-40 split). McCain's recent screwups (they seem to be legion) have only made it that much worse for his campaign.

No ... what? I said basically what you said.

Gallup has generally found that the public gives Obama an edge over McCain on handling of the economy. It makes me wonder if the McCain campaign gaffes over the past few days have contributed to this shift.

MattusMaximus
17th September 2008, 08:32 PM
No ... what? I said basically what you said.

Undesired Walrus
18th September 2008, 12:05 AM
Any shift on Ohio yet?

Pookster
18th September 2008, 05:01 AM
Any shift on Ohio yet?

The polls out the past two days ...

CNN/Time has Obama up by 2 (49%-47%)
Rasmussen has McCain up by 3 (48%-45%)

Both are within their margins of error. It's basically a tossup, just as it was before the conventions. It'll be a late election night for this one.

Pookster
18th September 2008, 05:07 AM
Some other national polls out over the past day ...

CBS/NYT has Obama up by 6 (49%-43%)
Quinnipiac has Obama up by 4 (49%-45%)
Ipsos Public Affairs has it at a tie (45%-45%)
Hotline/FD Tracking has Obama up by 3 (45%-42%)

Pookster
18th September 2008, 05:10 AM
Some quotes from the CBS/NYT poll article ...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26763744/

Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain had enjoyed a surge of support — particularly among white women after his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate — but the latest poll indicates “the Palin effect” was, at least so far, a limited burst of interest.

The poll also underlined the extent to which Mr. McCain’s convention — and his selection of Ms. Palin — had excited Republican base voters about his candidacy ...

But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin’s selection has, to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was no evidence of significantly increased support for him among female voters in general. White women are evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white women by a margin of 44 percent to 37 percent.

By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger, by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.

This poll found evidence of concern about Ms. Palin’s qualifications to be president, particularly compared to those of Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, Mr. Obama’s choice for a running mate. More than 6 in 10 of those surveyed said they would be concerned if Mr. McCain could not finish his term and Ms. Palin had to take over. In contrast, two-thirds of voters surveyed said Mr. Biden would be qualified to take over for Mr. Obama, a figure that cut across party lines.

chipmunk stew
18th September 2008, 06:12 AM
From the Quinnipiac poll (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1215):

Number one issue:
47% said Economy - favor Obama 56%-38%
15% said War in Iraq - favor Obama 64%-33%
11% said Terrorism (Reps 23%, Dems 2%) - favor McCain 92%-6%

Pookster
18th September 2008, 06:29 AM
From the Quinnipiac poll (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1215):

Number one issue:
47% said Economy - favor Obama 56%-38%
15% said War in Iraq - favor Obama 64%-33%
11% said Terrorism (Reps 23%, Dems 2%) - favor McCain 92%-6%

Also from that poll, McCain is getting 90% of the Republican vote, Obama is getting 88% of the Democratic vote, and they're basically splitting the independent vote. This is an improvement for both within their own party based on previous polls I've seen.

ETA: They're also evenly splitting the white women vote, just as the CBS poll indicated.

Pookster
18th September 2008, 06:36 AM
Rasmussen has it at a tie today (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

As the financial sector meltdown continues, consumer confidence has plummeted, falling 8% overnight. Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters now rate the economy as the top issue of Election 2008. That’s up from 41% this past Saturday morning. The number saying the country is heading in the right direction fell from 23% on Saturday to 18% now.

chipmunk stew
18th September 2008, 10:07 AM
Gallup tracking (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110473/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx) today: Obama +4% (48%-44%)

Pookster
18th September 2008, 12:00 PM
Looking at where the poll numbers really matter, at the moment Obama has all of Kerry's States except for New Hampshire under his wing. However, NH seems to be polling more safely for Obama lately. McCain continues to have some Bush States at big risk. Here are the ones "up for grabs" at the moment with the candidate seemingly polling the strongest at the moment ...

Iowa (7) - Obama
New Mexico (5) - Obama
Ohio (20) - tossup
Virginia (13) - McCain

Obama starts with 251. Add Iowa and New Mexico for 263

Magic Numbers:

Obama - 7
McCain - 25

I had thought Michigan and Indiana could possibly end up in play, but I doubt it ... for now. Florida might become a vulnerable Bush State, but its polls are all over the place with it either tied or McCain with a relatively safe lead.

Wangler
18th September 2008, 12:28 PM
FiveThirtyEight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) sure does lag; they show McCain still with a lead...methinks that they will show Obama back on top by this weekend.

MattusMaximus
18th September 2008, 02:17 PM
Latest from the markets...

IEM-WTA (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 61.0
McCain 40.7

IEM-Vote Share (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 52.5
McCain 48.0

Obama 53
McCain 47

Obama 51.6
McCain 47.7

I think that unless McCain can drastically reverse this trend before the debates, he's sunk. That gives him a little over a week (first debate is on the 26th) - not good odds.

Undesired Walrus
18th September 2008, 02:45 PM

gdnp
18th September 2008, 02:45 PM
Don't count McCain out in the debates. Obama certainly didn't blow them away at the religious forum, despite clearly being a more religious person than McCain. I don't recall him dominating the democratic debates either. He can come off as both aloof and less than articulate at times. And he is also prone to blurting out things that can hurt him: I suspect, for example, he would like to have back his "the surge has succeeded beyond our wildest dreams" comment during the O'Reilley interview. I'm sure we'll be seeing that one in McCain commercials.

I am not so sure that Palin won't hold her own as well. These debates are not really about knowledge. They are about anticipating the questions, having set answers, or changing the subject to something you do know.

BAC could give her lessons. When cornered, he rarely concedes a point--he just changes the subject. Most of the candidates are quite good at this.

dudalb
18th September 2008, 03:13 PM
With all the "Obama has it in the bag" threads and posts since he went up two points,
this picture should be a lesson for the Dems about what overconfidence will do to you:http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_188404862c8a777faf.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=12757)

David Wong
18th September 2008, 03:37 PM

Bush up by 3:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

It didn't change up to election day, except for the occasional outlier.

dudalb
18th September 2008, 03:40 PM
It's stupid even to discuss the polls as showing that one is ahead of the other at this point since all the leads are well within the + or - percentage of error.

David Wong
18th September 2008, 03:44 PM
Don't count McCain out in the debates.

I completely agree. Especially the Palin debate, where any harsh attacks by Biden will be seen as more persecution of the strong, conservative woman. The only way she can screw it up is if she completely fumbles it and reveals she doesn't know where Europe is or whatever. I don't see that happening, she's not stupid.

And McCain is a likable guy, that's always been his asset. He's probably better at off-the-cuff remarks than Obama and I think he could do well.

He just can't lose his temper and can't let himself get cornered on the recent economic stuff.

Remember, these debates tend to lean to the left, you'll get lots of questions about increasing funding for green energy and schools, but not many on decreasing the deficit.

Obama's goal is not to create deadly "you're no Jack Kennedy" moments. He just has to answer the questions and be competent and hold his lead.

David Wong
18th September 2008, 03:51 PM
It's stupid even to discuss the polls as showing that one is ahead of the other at this point since all the leads are well within the + or - percentage of error.

Actually, Gallup is now outside their margin of error (lead is 4, margin is 2) as is Hotline (lead is 4, margin is 3) CBS/NY Times (lead is 5) and Quinnipiac (lead is 4, margin is 3.1).

Plus, even if the lead is within the margin, the movement of the polls is significant. The six-point move to go from down 3 to up 3 is significant even if the margin of error is 3.

chipmunk stew
18th September 2008, 03:58 PM
Actually, Gallup is now outside their margin of error (lead is 4, margin is 2) as is Hotline (lead is 4, margin is 3) CBS/NY Times (lead is 5) and Quinnipiac (lead is 4, margin is 3.1).

Plus, even if the lead is within the margin, the movement of the polls is significant. The six-point move to go from down 3 to up 3 is significant even if the margin of error is 3.
Also, the aggregate polls (like Real Clear Politics) have a smaller margin of error, and they show definite trends. McCain was clearly ahead last week. Obama is clearly moving into the lead.

NotJesus
18th September 2008, 04:59 PM
FiveThirtyEight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) sure does lag; they show McCain still with a lead...methinks that they will show Obama back on top by this weekend.

Or even today.

MattusMaximus
18th September 2008, 05:19 PM
It's stupid even to discuss the polls as showing that one is ahead of the other at this point since all the leads are well within the + or - percentage of error.

That's why I'm not discussing polls. I'm following the prediction markets, which have usually been much, much better predictors than polls (especially the Iowa Electronic Market). And guess what? All the prediction markets are showing that McCain is in trouble.

For example, if you compare the IEM markets from the 2004 election (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm) with the current election (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm), you'll see what I mean. McCain and the GOP are in big trouble, though of course they and their supporters refuse to admit it publicly this close to the election.

Case in point, in the 2004 election at this point (mid-to-late Sept) the IEM-WTA was

Bush ~60
Kerry ~40

And in the current election the IEM-WTA is, as of now

Obama 60.8
McCain 40.6

which is almost a complete reversal from 2004. Check the histories and the trends. I maintain that unless something major happens, even with a few gaffes, this is Obama's election to win.

MattusMaximus
18th September 2008, 05:25 PM
With all the "Obama has it in the bag" threads and posts since he went up two points,
this picture should be a lesson for the Dems about what overconfidence will do to you:http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_188404862c8a777faf.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=12757)

Which is why we're not making the mistake of being overconfident. From here until Election Day, we're going to beat McCain and his GOP handlers like a drum.

Count on it.

MattusMaximus
18th September 2008, 05:32 PM
Don't count McCain out in the debates. Obama certainly didn't blow them away at the religious forum, despite clearly being a more religious person than McCain. I don't recall him dominating the democratic debates either. He can come off as both aloof and less than articulate at times. And he is also prone to blurting out things that can hurt him: I suspect, for example, he would like to have back his "the surge has succeeded beyond our wildest dreams" comment during the O'Reilley interview. I'm sure we'll be seeing that one in McCain commercials.

Yes, but McCain can also display some pretty stupid gaffes. Just look at what happened this week with all of his mis-steps.

Besides, the way I see it, Obama can probably afford some small goofs in the debates - McCain cannot. If McCain doesn't really outshine Obama, he's in deep trouble.

Bottom line: the debates will be make or break for McCain; they are must-wins for him. Obama doesn't have that handicap, especially given the current economic climate and the fact that more people are paying attention to issues.

I am not so sure that Palin won't hold her own as well. These debates are not really about knowledge. They are about anticipating the questions, having set answers, or changing the subject to something you do know.

Well, given her ham-fisted performance last week in her only interview to date, you'll have to pardon me if I don't agree. I know plenty of undecided voters who are looking at the debates to be specifically about knowledge. If that is a general trend, Palin's predicted knowledge-less display in the VP debate will act to hurt McCain, at least with undecideds.

BAC could give her lessons. When cornered, he rarely concedes a point--he just changes the subject. Most of the candidates are quite good at this.

I agree that she'll weasel, squirm, and try to change the subject while sticking to her pre-set script. But I also think that it probably won't work out too well for McCain/Palin if (when) she does that, because the undecideds have likely heard it all again and again. They're going to be looking for something new and substantive, and Palin won't be able to give it to them.

MattusMaximus
18th September 2008, 05:53 PM
FiveThirtyEight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) sure does lag; they show McCain still with a lead...methinks that they will show Obama back on top by this weekend.

Check it now. There's been a big change in the last 24 hours since you posted.

FiveThirtyEight has a great article on this...

State of the Race: Is McCain In Trouble? (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/state-of-race-is-mccain-in-trouble.html)

Some key points in the article:

Is this shift really a result of the economic crisis? I believe that's part of it, but I believe there are at least two other factors at work as well.

The first is that McCain's performance in the polls in the 7-10 days following the Republican convention did likely reflect a bounce of some kind, rather than a permanent shift in the state of the race.

The Wall Street crisis was the first major event of the post-convention news cycle -- the first thing that really tested the robustness of the Republican bounce. And what happened? The bounce proved to be about a mile wide but an inch deep.

McCain's other problem is that Sarah Palin may no longer be an asset to the ticket; in fact, she may be a liability. Averaging the candidates' favorability scores across four recent polls -- as one should always try and do when looking at favorability numbers since they can vary greatly depending on question wording -- Palin now has the worst net scores among the four principals in the race.

The McCain campaign may be in some trouble. We should learn over the next several days, as further polling results roll in, whether they are in a little trouble or a lot of trouble. I would certainly not rule out the latter possibility.

I'm going to go with a lot of trouble.

Wangler
18th September 2008, 06:07 PM
Obama's goal is not to create deadly "you're no Jack Kennedy" moments. He just has to answer the questions and be competent and hold his lead.

True, but let's not forget the old adage:

"The best defense is a good offense"

MattusMaximus
18th September 2008, 06:09 PM
True, but let's not forget the old adage:

"The best defense is a good offense"

This is a valid point. But also bear in mind that Obama/Biden seem to have found their voices, and I think everyone will have to agree that they've been playing offense pretty hardcore all week. If they can continue this into next week, it'll give them a huge amount of momentum going into the debates.

As I said, I think the only way for McCain to recover is for both he and Palin to really outshine their opponents in the debates. All of them.

Wangler
18th September 2008, 06:10 PM
Bottom line: the debates will be make or break for McCain; they are must-wins for him. Obama doesn't have that handicap, especially given the current economic climate and the fact that more people are paying attention to issues.

I think that both candidates need good debates this time round.

Well, given her ham-fisted performance last week in her only interview to date, you'll have to pardon me if I don't agree.

Well, she did have a two part interview with Fox News (does that even count), lobbed a whole bunch of slowballs at her........

I think that she has another ABC interview next week.

She is beginning to get out there a bit more.

MattusMaximus
18th September 2008, 06:19 PM
I think that both candidates need good debates this time round.

McCain needs a good debate way more than Obama at this point. If McCain stumbles in the debates, he's finished for sure; if not, he might have some kind of fighting chance.

Well, she did have a two part interview with Fox News (does that even count), lobbed a whole bunch of slowballs at her........

Surprised? I'm not. It's no surprise either that barely anyone beyond Fox News robots paid any attention to it. Most people who aren't hardcore Bush Republicans don't give Fox news much validity anymore.

I think that she has another ABC interview next week.

I know she's to be interviewed by CBS's Katie Couric and might show up on 60 Minutes as well.

She is beginning to get out there a bit more.

She really has no choice. It's starting to look bad for the GOP that McCain's campaign is doing everything they can to hide her from the press (think "Cheney's in a secret bunker"). Not to mention, she needs to do some kind of damage control to mitigate the damage she wrought upon McCain last week with that terrible interview, and sound bites won't cut it.

Imo, beyond the base (who will love her no matter what), she has become a liability for McCain's campaign.

gdnp
18th September 2008, 08:54 PM
I'm just hoping that the Bush administration doesn't pull an October surprise: a US or Israeli air strike on Iran, for example.

Wangler
18th September 2008, 10:45 PM
Not to mention, she needs to do some kind of damage control to mitigate the damage she wrought upon McCain last week with that terrible interview, and sound bites won't cut it.

I didn't think she was all that bad...I haven't seen too much analysis beyond the single "Bush doctrine" question.

Certainly her answer there was no worse than Biden's patriotic tax answer.

Wangler
18th September 2008, 10:46 PM
I'm just hoping that the Bush administration doesn't pull an October surprise: a US or Israeli air strike on Iran, for example.

I hope not...has any administration done something like that in the past?

Wangler
18th September 2008, 11:01 PM
Thought that this would be the place to post this (http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/sep/03/how-popular-is-gov-palin/).

n=400, but Alaska is a small state.

gdnp
19th September 2008, 05:34 AM
Thought that this would be the place to post this (http://www.redstate.com/diaries/redstate/2008/sep/03/how-popular-is-gov-palin/).

n=400, but Alaska is a small state.

When my governor eliminates the state income tax, the state sales tax, and sends each member of my family a check for \$3269 I will give him a big thumbs up as well. Especially if he works with the congressional delegation to bring in earmarks at 10 times the national level. Santa Claus is really popular among children of all ages and religions.

Of course, it will be a bit hard for her to reproduce these results in the US as a whole, won't it?

Pookster
19th September 2008, 06:45 AM
Still tied at Rasmussen (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Voters currently blame private corporations more than either Congress or the President for the Wall Street mess that became visible this week. That issue may have helped Obama gain ground in the past few days as few agree with McCain’s initial reaction that the economy is fundamentally sound. [LINK] However, the politics of the issue remain complex--49% of voters worry that the federal government will do too much while just 36% are more worried that it will do too little.

Pookster
19th September 2008, 06:47 AM
Rasmussen on the electoral college (same link as above) ...

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama has the edge in states with 193 votes. When “leaners” are included, shows Obama leading 259-247

MattusMaximus
19th September 2008, 09:25 AM
Gallup tracking (http://www.gallup.com/poll/110473/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx) today: Obama +4% (48%-44%)

The Gallup numbers are still holding steady for Obama (48) vs. McCain (44)

MattusMaximus
19th September 2008, 09:30 AM
I didn't think she was all that bad...I haven't seen too much analysis beyond the single "Bush doctrine" question.

Then you haven't been looking too hard.

Certainly her answer there was no worse than Biden's patriotic tax answer.

Attempt at deflection noted.

Pookster
19th September 2008, 09:51 AM
It'd be nice if we could keep the discussion in this thread on topic - polls. There are plenty of other threads (or create new ones) to discuss other things.

Thanks. :)

Pookster
19th September 2008, 10:08 AM
Gallup has Obama up by 5 today (49%-44%) ...

Obama enjoyed one of his widest advantages over McCain of recent weeks in Thursday night's interviewing. It will be important to see whether the stock market's reaction today to aggressive government intervention in the crisis has an impact of the direction of the presidential race over the next few days.

chipmunk stew
19th September 2008, 10:08 AM
Edit: deleted (redundant--see Pookster's post above)

David Wong
19th September 2008, 10:14 AM
Here's where the difference between Rasmussen's Likely Voters and Gallup's Registered Voters becomes very dramatic.

Basically Rasmussen is indicating that these people who fluctuate the polls and change their mind based on every convention or news story, aren't going to vote.

As support has flocked to Obama in Gallup, Rasmussen sits unmoved, saying that come election day it's still 50/50.

Pookster
19th September 2008, 10:17 AM
Edit: deleted (redundant--see Pookster's post above)

I suspect the number could go up as high as 51% for Obama tomorrow.

I've grown more and more skeptical of Gallup's numbers though. They shouldn't swing this dramatically. But, the situation with the economy may be causing it this week. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep these kinds of numbers.

Pookster
19th September 2008, 10:19 AM
Here's where the difference between Rasmussen's Likely Voters and Gallup's Registered Voters becomes very dramatic.

Basically Rasmussen is indicating that these people who fluctuate the polls and change their mind based on every convention or news story, aren't going to vote.

As support has flocked to Obama in Gallup, Rasmussen sits unmoved, saying that come election day it's still 50/50.

As I recall, Rasmussen was one of (if not) the most accurate polls in 2004. They pretty much nailed the outcome, and the numbers shifted very little over the time leading up to the election.

aerosolben
19th September 2008, 10:30 AM
You mean despite all the hand-wringing from both sides, Obama is back to the small lead he's held roughly since the primaries wrapped up? Shocking. :)

I'm a supporter of "Obama +3" after GOP convention bounce.

aerosolben
19th September 2008, 10:34 AM
FiveThirtyEight (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) sure does lag; they show McCain still with a lead...methinks that they will show Obama back on top by this weekend.
He had a blog post recently mulling how they should adjust the sensitivity of their measures. Right now, they re-act slowly to avoid over-jumping minor trends, but that lags real momentum shifts. Tough to answer - personally I think, since the election season is so long, you're not going to be able to smooth out the race to any reasonable degree, so you might want to go for agility. Or just keep two measures.

BenBurch
19th September 2008, 12:36 PM
538 no longer shows McCain leading, BTW.

chipmunk stew
19th September 2008, 01:00 PM
Interesting poll profiling "Reds, Blues & Purples":
The online survey was conducted August 19–28, 2008, including 3,167 adults nationwide and carrying a margin of error of +/– 1.8 percentage points. Using statistical clustering analysis, we created a political typology based on how respondents evaluated 42 statements about political values. The typology revealed three significant clusters of respondents: "reds," as we decided to call them, make up 41% of the national sample, while "blues" comprise 34% and "purples" 24%. The same respondents were asked about their preferred leisure-time activities and their favorite radio and TV shows, Web sites, movies, games and sports.
Analysis here:
http://www.learcenter.org/html/projects/?cm=zogby/08

Pookster
20th September 2008, 07:18 AM
Rasmussen has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Obama’s gains over the past week came as the focus shifted from the momentum generated at the Republican National Convention to the economic roller coaster ride that played out on Wall Street. Few agreed with McCain’s initial statement about the economy being fundamentally sound and neither candidate has yet convinced voters that he will bring the needed changes to the financial markets.

not_so_new
20th September 2008, 07:55 AM
Important state that McCain is hoping to steal.

An average of the latest polls in Michigan shows why the state continues to be a battleground in the fight for the presidency.

A new CNN poll of polls in Michigan, compiled Saturday, suggests Senator Barack Obama has a five point lead over Senator John McCain, 47 percent to 42 percent, with 11 percent of voters undecided.

11 percent still undecided? That seems high doesn't it?

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 08:46 AM
It'd be nice if we could keep the discussion in this thread on topic - polls. There are plenty of other threads (or create new ones) to discuss other things.

Thanks. :)

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 08:53 AM
Latest from the prediction markets...

IEM - WTA (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 63.5
McCain 38.4

IEM - Vote Share (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 53.5
McCain 48.1

Obama 51.4
McCain 47.2

NewsFutures (http://news.us.newsfutures.com/election2008.html) (again, WTA or VS?)
Obama 53
McCain 47

Based upon the market over at IEM, which I tend to trust more due to their longevity and capacity for preventing people from gaming the market (they are the only market that I know which limits the trade price, thus preventing any single investor from dominating), it seems that McCain has got big problems.

For more context, compare the IEM record of the 2004 election (http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm) to the current election. (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)

Does anyone know if other markets have a similar historical analysis from 2004?

Undesired Walrus
20th September 2008, 09:07 AM
What are these prediction markets? Does it correlate with betting?

Wangler
20th September 2008, 09:18 AM
I guess this was inevitable, and sorry if others have posted something similar before:

Poll: Racial views steer some away from Obama (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26803840)

Undesired Walrus
20th September 2008, 10:10 AM
Obama now up by 6 on Gallup.

Pookster
20th September 2008, 10:30 AM
Obama now up by 6 on Gallup.

50%-44%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110551/Gallup-Daily-Obama-50-McCain-44.aspx

Obama has held at least a small margin over McCain in each of the last four daily reports, generally coincident with the start of the Wall Street financial meltdown that began to dominate the news on Monday this past week.

Obama's current 50% rating matches his 50% record high reached just after the Democratic National Convention. (That came in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 30-Sept. 1.) However, his current six percentage point advantage is not as large as the nine-point lead he held in late July and an eight-point lead after the Democratic National Convention in late August. It is important to note that McCain recovered and moved ahead after each of these Obama high points, suggesting that it is certainly possible that McCain could recover in this situation as well.

gdnp
20th September 2008, 11:36 AM
Still a long way to go. Hard to imagine what will happen between now and election day.

David Wong
20th September 2008, 12:07 PM
Debate on Friday!!!

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 01:45 PM
What are these prediction markets? Does it correlate with betting?

Super Tuesday: Markets Predict Outcome Better Than Polls (http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=markets-predict-outcome-better-than-polls)

Key points:

* In 1988 the University of Iowa launched an experiment to test whether a market using securities for presidential candidates could predict the outcome of the election.
* In presidential elections from 1988 to 2004, the Iowa Electronic Markets have predicted final results better than the polls three times out of four.
* Despite the track record of the Iowa market, a fund*amental understanding of how prediction markets work remains elusive, and economists are still trying to develop a body of theory to provide definitive answers.

ETA: current numbers on the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)...

Winner-Take-All
Obama 63.5
McCain 38.5

Vote-Share
Obama 53.5
McCain 48.1

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 01:48 PM
I guess this was inevitable, and sorry if others have posted something similar before:

Poll: Racial views steer some away from Obama (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26803840)

Meh. This was expected and comes as no surprise. I'm sure that Obama's campaign has no illusions about this fact.

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 02:00 PM
I know this is a question that has been on the minds of many on this thread for some time: since many pollsters don't account for cellphone-only users (who tend to be younger), what effect, if any, would this have on poll numbers?

I have maintained for some time that if this were taken into account that we'd see a big improvement in Obama's numbers (indeed, this is one reason why I think he's doing so well on the IEM-WTA market (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)). Well, now it seems there is some analysis over at FiveThirtyEight.com (http://fivethirtyeight.com) which supports my claim...

Estimating the Cellphone Effect: 2.8 2.2 Points (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/estimating-cellphone-effect-22-points.html)

... Six of the seven eight cellphone-friendly pollsters have had a Democratic (Obama) lean, and in several cases it has been substantial. On average, they had a house effect of Obama +2.8 +2.3. By comparison, the control group had essentially zero house effect a house effect of Obama +0.1 (**), so this would imply that including a cellphone sample improves Obama's numbers by 2.8 points. (Or, framed more properly, failing to include cellphones hurts Obama's numbers by approximately 2 2-3 points). ...

... A difference of 2-3 points may not be a big deal in certain survey applications such as market research, but in polling a tight presidential race it makes a big difference. If I re-run today's numbers but add 2.2 points to Obama's margin in each non-cellphone poll, his win percentage shoots up from 71.5 percent to 78.5 percent, and he goes from 303.1 electoral votes to 318.5 (EDIT: I have not changed this part of the analysis in reflection of the new numbers, as it should still get the general point across). The difference would be more pronounced still if Obama hadn't already moved ahead of McCain by a decent margin on our projections. ...

Wow. If this bears out and Obama can use modern technology to turn out even a decent fraction (say one-third) of these younger cellphone-only users, then McCain is sunk.

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 02:12 PM
Ouch. It seems that what many here predicted three weeks ago is starting to come to pass: Palin is all form, no substance, and she will ultimately hurt McCain as more people see past the facade.

Palin's Favorability Ratings Tumble (http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/09/19/palins_favorability_ratings_tumble.html)

Gov. Sarah Palin's favorable/unfavorable ratings have suffered a stunning 21 point collapse in just one week, according to Research 2000 (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/17/195514/801/936/602155) polling. Last week, 52% approved and 35% disapproved of the GOP vice presidential nominee (+17 net). This week, 42% approved and 46% disapprove (-4 net). ...

And a related article:

... In a political environment not generally friendly to Republicans, McCain's biggest advantage over Obama has been his perceived readiness to be president. He hammered away at this message all summer and kept the race reasonably close.

However, when McCain picked Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate -- a person just two years removed from being mayor of a town with fewer people than the Fenway Park bleachers -- he essentially gave up experience as a campaign issue. It's hard to argue that Obama is inexperienced when McCain's choice to be just a heartbeat away from the presidency has even less experience. ...

gdnp
20th September 2008, 03:35 PM
Ouch. It seems that what many here predicted three weeks ago is starting to come to pass: Palin is all form, no substance, and she will ultimately hurt McCain as more people see past the facade.

Mattus, you are not reading the script correctly.

You are supposed to be TERRIFIED of Palin because she is JUST SO GOOD.

She is the Democrats WORST NIGHTMARE.

A SMART, ATTRACTIVE CONSERVATIVE WOMAN.

With GUNS.

(I'm not counting her out just yet. But I think her bubble has burst).

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 05:34 PM

MattusMaximus
20th September 2008, 05:37 PM
I guess this was inevitable, and sorry if others have posted something similar before:

Poll: Racial views steer some away from Obama (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26803840)

Interestingly, I just saw this posting on Politico.com (http://politico.com):

Questioning the race poll (http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0908/Questioning_the_race_poll.html)

... The AP study also seems to have been conducted among a population of Democrats more skeptical of Obama than normal. Both polls ABC-News/Washington Post, as well as the massive weekly summaries of the Gallup Poll, demonstrates that since late August between 83 and 85 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Obama. The AP study interviewed a population where only seven in ten Democrats said they support Obama, a notably low number.

This is precisely one of the reasons why I'm not so trusting of polls. I expect there will likely be more scrutiny of that poll over the next few days.

Wangler
20th September 2008, 11:39 PM
This is precisely one of the reasons why I'm not so trusting of polls. I expect there will likely be more scrutiny of that poll over the next few days.

I guess it seems to make sense that there are bastions of registered Democrats or Republicans who are very moderate, and might not support their parties candidate. If that bastion gets polled, funky results are seen.

Another thing to skew the result! D*** polls!

Wangler
20th September 2008, 11:51 PM
Guess who has a worse approval rating than Bush (31.9% approval rating)....................

The Democratically controlled Congress! (21.7% approval rating (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/#rcp-avg-904))

gdnp
21st September 2008, 06:29 AM
Guess who has a worse approval rating than Bush (31.9% approval rating)....................

The Democratically controlled Congress! (21.7% approval rating (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/#rcp-avg-904))

It is one of those great logical disconnects that people hate congress as an institution, yet they vote their representatives back into office 99% of the time. It's like driving an SUV and complaining about high gas prices.

Pookster
21st September 2008, 06:49 AM
Rasmussen still has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The underlying closeness of the race is highlighted by the fact that the candidates have been within three points of each other for 50 of the last 55 days. The only exceptions were five days around the Democratic National Convention where Obama opened a four-to-six point lead. During those 55 days, they’ve been within two points of each other 41 times and the gap has been one point or less 28 times.

With the race so close, the debates scheduled to begin this Friday night could be more significant than usual. That’s especially true since 21% of voters say they are either uncommitted or could change their mind before voting.

Wangler
21st September 2008, 08:32 AM
When could we say that the elections are decided, based upon the poll numbers (if ever).

It seems like there would be some sort of time-lead relationship:

If a candidate had a 25% lead with 100 days remaining = winner (95% confidence level)

If a candidate had a 10% lead with 30 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

If a candidate had a 5% lead with 5 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

Does anyone have an opinion, or know if this type of analysis has been done?

Pookster
21st September 2008, 02:09 PM
When could we say that the elections are decided, based upon the poll numbers (if ever).

It seems like there would be some sort of time-lead relationship:

If a candidate had a 25% lead with 100 days remaining = winner (95% confidence level)

If a candidate had a 10% lead with 30 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

If a candidate had a 5% lead with 5 days remaining = winner, 95% CL

Does anyone have an opinion, or know if this type of analysis has been done?

If you're talking about a national poll, then they're not of much benefit. Gore won the national vote in 2000, but lost the election. You have to look at the State polls.

Also, when considering when the race is "decided" in advance, you have to consider two other things ... the undecideds in the poll and the margin of error for the poll. The undecideds are what drive pollsters nuts.

Another potential variable is will turnout exceed expectations for a given demographic.

Pookster
21st September 2008, 02:12 PM
Gallup has Obama up by 4 today (49%-45%) ...

Until now, Obama had advanced on McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking each day this past week, with the start of that trend coinciding with the news of Lehman Brothers' imminent bankruptcy on Sunday, Sept. 14. Obama's position versus McCain shifted from a two-point deficit in voter preferences in Monday's report (tracking interviews from Sept. 12-14, 2008), to a two-point advantage on Wednesday, a four-point lead on Thursday and a six-point lead on Saturday.

David Wong
21st September 2008, 02:27 PM
If you're talking about a national poll, then they're not of much benefit. Gore won the national vote in 2000, but lost the election. You have to look at the State polls.

Also, when considering when the race is "decided" in advance, you have to consider two other things ... the undecideds in the poll and the margin of error for the poll. The undecideds are what drive pollsters nuts.

Another potential variable is will turnout exceed expectations for a given demographic.

Well, but you know that except for extraordinarily close elections, the winner of the national polls also wins the electoral college. 2000 was an aberration with those ludicrously close margins.

MattusMaximus
21st September 2008, 04:50 PM
Latest from the markets...

IEM-WTA
Obama 60.9
McCain 39.5

IEM-Vote Share
Obama 52.3
McCain 48.1

Obama 50.2
McCain 47.8

NewsFutures
Obama 54
McCain 46

FiveThirtyEight-WTA*
Obama 74.4
McCain 25.6

FiveThirtyEight-Vote Share*
Obama 50.3
McCain 47.9

* Note that I'm not sure the info from FiveThirtyEight.com is actually a prediction market.

Gnu World Order
22nd September 2008, 06:07 AM
Today, for the first time I can remember, both www.electoral-vote.com and www.electionprojection.com are showing the same result for the electoral college:

Obama 273
McCain 265

They even have the same states falling the same way.

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 06:34 AM
Rasmussen still has Obama up by 1 today (48%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Still, while the race has consistently been close, there have been identifiable trends. For most of August, Obama held a very slight one or two point lead in the tracking poll. He expanded that lead to six points with a solid convention bounce but then McCain returned the favor with a convention bounce of his own. McCain’s advantage peaked at three points last weekend before the Wall Street roller coaster ride of the past week began a drift back in Obama’s direction.

With the race so close, the debates scheduled to begin this Friday night could be more significant than usual. That’s especially true since 18% of voters say they are either uncommitted or could change their mind before voting.

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 06:43 AM
It's beginning to look like Florida and North Carolina may possibly be moving back into the mix of vulnerable Bush States.

North Carolina:
PPP: Tie (46%-46%)
Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)

Florida:
Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)

Florida seems to be getting close, but I'm not convinced Obama has much of a chance there ... yet.

North Carolina is going to be difficult to figure out because Obama out-performed his polling for the primary. Many polls try to anticipate turnout among different groups. An extremely high turnout among Blacks could result in the same thing again on election day.

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 10:06 AM
Gallup still has Obama up by 4 (48%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110578/Gallup-Daily-Obama-48-McCain-44.aspx

The four-point margin in favor of Obama is the same as in Sunday's report. Gallup's separate tracking of consumer confidence showed little change over the weekend, suggesting that Americans may be taking a breath after last week's fast-paced barrage of news about Wall Street and the economy.

aerosolben
22nd September 2008, 11:41 AM
* Note that I'm not sure the info from FiveThirtyEight.com is actually a prediction market.
It definitely is not - it is a poll (or rather, a meta-poll).

Undesired Walrus
22nd September 2008, 12:43 PM
But can Obama win without Ohio?

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 01:07 PM
But can Obama win without Ohio?

He can. There are some 2004 Bush States that he has a legitimate shot at ...

Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Virginia is probably beyond reach, but different combination of the above would do it. Obama probably has Iowa locked up. That puts him at 258 (if he holds onto all of Kerry's States, which is likely at the moment). Throw in Colorado and either Nevada or New Mexico, and he wins.

Undesired Walrus
22nd September 2008, 02:42 PM
Which slightly redraws the electoral map.

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 02:57 PM
Well, just when I say Virginia is likely out of reach for Obama ...

SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)

These are just out today.

not_so_new
22nd September 2008, 02:58 PM
He can. There are some 2004 Bush States that he has a legitimate shot at ...

Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Virginia is probably beyond reach, but different combination of the above would do it. Obama probably has Iowa locked up. That puts him at 258 (if he holds onto all of Kerry's States, which is likely at the moment). Throw in Colorado and either Nevada or New Mexico, and he wins.

Thanks Pookster.

So what do Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico look like now? Sorry if that was covered in an earlier post.

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 03:09 PM
Latest polls out over the past day or so for Bush vulnerable States:

Iowa (7)
Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)

Suffolk University: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)

New Mexico (5)
PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)

Virginia (13)
SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)

Florida:
Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
Rasmussen: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 03:12 PM
Thanks Pookster.

So what do Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico look like now? Sorry if that was covered in an earlier post.

InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

The InAdv/PollPosition poll is the latest, but it is a big outlier. Most polls over the past month or so show it as a tossup.

Pookster
22nd September 2008, 03:21 PM
For Kerry vulnerable States, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have been polling tight for some time now. I still believe they're Obama's to lose.

Pennsylvania
NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)
Marist: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)

New Hampshire
University of New Hampshire: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
Rasmussen: CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Foolmewunz
22nd September 2008, 05:08 PM
Overall, it's now looking do-able for Obama. The blog impact of Caribou Barbie is wearing off and people are looking at her more closely and not seeing a lot they like (except for the diehard fanz and they'll support her regardless).

With Florida and Virginia now moving to "battleground" status, McCain's got to spend money holding onto states he thought he'd won. And with Obama making inroads in New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada? It's looking stronger for Obama, all around.

It's the quiet weeks that hurt McCain. Without some blockbuster news or Obama gaff, he's picking up a point or two in every state during those weeks. And with Ohio back in play? You've got a lot of electoral votes in FL, VA, OH. McCain couldn't keep the convention bounce going in those states.

Of course, these are all weighted by the trends of the past few days. Let's see if the Lehman Bounce continues in Obama's favor.

As to the "when can you call it" question? I'd say that if you have any candidate as far out as a month before the election, even, with 15+ point insurmountable polls in the 12 top states for EC votes, then you could call it. Since that'd mean big leads in even TX and FL, you'd have someone with broad appeal and that'd mean they would be a shoo-in.

I haven't done the numbers this year, but I last calculated that you could win ten states by 1 vote each, and then lose 40 by 10,000,000 and win the presidency. I'll have to check the numbers again.

MattusMaximus
22nd September 2008, 06:55 PM
He can. There are some 2004 Bush States that he has a legitimate shot at ...

Iowa (7)
New Mexico (5)
Virginia (13)

Virginia is probably beyond reach, but different combination of the above would do it. Obama probably has Iowa locked up. That puts him at 258 (if he holds onto all of Kerry's States, which is likely at the moment). Throw in Colorado and either Nevada or New Mexico, and he wins.

The fact that Obama has gone on the offensive and has McCain running defense in all these 2004 "red" states (with the possible exception of Virginia) makes his odds very good.

Also, Ohio stands a real chance of going blue this time around. And considering that in recent days it seems Obama has also made some gains in both North Carolina and Florida, both of which lean McCain but could go to Obama within a month (especially with the new voter registration wildcard and the fact that in FL all those retired folks are looking at their investments go "poof"), the electoral landscape looks very favorable to Obama and the Democrats in general.

Obama has run a very smart and organized campaign, laying the foundation for voter registration and GOTV early this year with his ongoing primary battle vs. Clinton. I think this will show through clearly in the few weeks running up to Election Day (think early voting) and on Nov. 4th, when I think there will be massive turnout.

Bottom Line: in order to win the White House, McCain has to do at least as well as Bush did in 2004. With Obama advancing on so many "red" fronts right now and McCain advancing on no "blue" fronts (that I can see), it is looking less and less likely that McCain has a chance.

MattusMaximus
22nd September 2008, 07:01 PM
Latest from the prediction markets...

IEM-WTA (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 62.3
McCain 39.0

IEM-Vote Share (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 51.5
McCain 46.8

Obama 52.0
McCain 46.9

NewsFutures (http://us.newsfutures.com/)
Obama 54
McCain 46

MattusMaximus
22nd September 2008, 07:11 PM
As to the "when can you call it" question? I'd say that if you have any candidate as far out as a month before the election, even, with 15+ point insurmountable polls in the 12 top states for EC votes, then you could call it. Since that'd mean big leads in even TX and FL, you'd have someone with broad appeal and that'd mean they would be a shoo-in.

As anyone who is a veteran of political campaigns can tell you, you don't really "call it" until the other guy concedes. Until that time, you fight like hell to get every voter you can to the polls.

Then you can relax a little :)

gdnp
22nd September 2008, 07:24 PM
As anyone who is a veteran of political campaigns can tell you, you don't really "call it" until the other guy concedes. Until that time, you fight like hell to get every voter you can to the polls.

I don't call it till Scalia sings...

MattusMaximus
22nd September 2008, 08:28 PM
This is the first poll on this specific topic that I've seen, so it'd be interesting to see if there are any others.

CNN poll: GOP takes brunt of blame for economy; Obama gains (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/22/cnn.poll/index.html)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- By a 2-to-1 ratio, Americans blame Republicans over Democrats for the financial crisis that has swept across the country the past few weeks, a new national poll suggests.

That may be contributing to better poll numbers for Sen. Barack Obama against Sen. John McCain in the race for the White House.

In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey out Monday afternoon, 47 percent of registered voters questioned said Republicans are more responsible for the problems currently facing financial institutions and the stock market; only 24 percent said Democrats are more responsible. ...

Wow. This could not only hurt McCain, but I wonder how much it'll negatively impact the GOP as they try to limit gains by the Democrats in Congress?

Has anyone else seen any other polls on this specific topic/question?

Undesired Walrus
23rd September 2008, 12:53 AM
When did Dukakis take a nosedive after his big lead?

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 04:46 AM
Other good news for Obama in the CNN poll ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/22/cnn.poll/index.html

Where did Obama make his gains?

"In two core McCain constituencies: men, who now narrowly favor Obama, and seniors, who have also flipped from McCain to Obama," said Bill Schneider, a CNN senior political analyst.

When including people most likely to vote, the results are pretty much the same. Among likely voters, Obama has a four-point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.

A couple of other factors in the survey appear to contribute to Obama's slight rise and McCain's slight drop in the polls. Fifty-three percent of those questioned say McCain, if elected, will mostly carry out the policies of President Bush, who remains extremely unpopular with most Americans. Bush's disapproval rating is up three points from the previous CNN/Opinion Research poll.

The survey also indicates Obama has recaptured the "change" factor. Just after the Republican convention, Obama's lead had shrunk to eight points when voters were asked which candidate would be more likely to bring change. His lead is up to 14 points in the new poll.

"Change has always been Obama's strong suit, but McCain and Palin clearly made inroads into that issue during the GOP convention," Holland said. "Palin, in particular, was seen as an agent of change when she made her first appearance on the national stage. That may be changing now."

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 04:59 AM
When did Dukakis take a nosedive after his big lead?

He reached the 17 point lead after the convention, but that was in late July of 1988. By election day, he was down by 7 points. But Bush did a great job of framing Dukakis as a liberal in a time when it was really taboo to be a liberal. I don't think there was any one point where he suddenly dropped. I think it was a steady decline over time, but I could be wrong.

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 05:01 AM
Interesting historical tidbit regarding Gallup polls around July 4th ...

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=ED60C36B-3048-5C12-004D1E289E0C84F4

In the post-war era, the Gallup polls taken closest to the Independence Day holiday have been correct in picking the popular vote winner two-thirds of the time, in 10 of 15 presidential contests, a Politico analysis found.

With the latest Gallup tracking poll (concluded July 2) showing Barack Obama ahead of John McCain 47 percent to 43 percent, count it as one more historical obstacle McCain need overcome.

Yet the GOP nominee can take solace from one fact: The eventual winner of the popular vote has trailed in the Gallup poll at this point in four of the past five presidential elections. The Gallup poll failed to prove prescient in 1968, 1988, 1992, 2000 and 2004.

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 05:45 AM
InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

The InAdv/PollPosition poll is the latest, but it is a big outlier. Most polls over the past month or so show it as a tossup.

Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)

Other polls out:

Michigan:
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)

Minnesota:
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)

Wisconsin:
Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

North Carolina:
Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 06:30 AM
Rasmussen has it at a tie today (48%-48%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Republicans typically win a majority of the White vote and this year is no exception. Among White Democrats, 78% say they’ll vote for Obama, 17% for McCain. Obama leads among non-White voters by a 71% to 24% margin.

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 07:25 AM
New poll for Florida with some interesting details ...

If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%. Yet inside those numbers, Obama leads McCain in the Tampa Bay area (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando, and Polk counties) by a 49%-43% margin. Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker says the key to winning Florida statewide is usually through Tampa Bay, and Obama’s six-point lead in the area explains why he’s ahead in this poll. Moreover, outside of Nevada, there is probably not another state that has been hurt more by the housing and credit crunch, and that may be benefiting Obama right now. Also potentially troublesome for McCain in this must-win GOP state, he leads by just six among Hispanics (49%-43%), which in Florida is made up of a majority of Cubans. (If Obama does pick off younger Cubans, he may close the overall gap thanks to his large lead among non-Cuban Hispanics in the I-4 corridor.) Also, McCain's four-point lead among seniors (48%-44%) is not as big as he needs it to be to offset the electorate-changing demographics among blacks and young voters.

Maybe Florida really is in play. Time will tell.

aerosolben
23rd September 2008, 08:52 AM
I haven't done the numbers this year, but I last calculated that you could win ten states by 1 vote each, and then lose 40 by 10,000,000 and win the presidency. I'll have to check the numbers again.
11 this year. Sorry, you have to cater to NJ too.

And you might have trouble losing some of those 40 states by 10 million votes. And by some of them, I mean all of them. You might consider dropping a 0, there. :)

David Wong
23rd September 2008, 09:03 AM
I do expect a McCain bounce after Friday's debate, simply because it's the foreign policy debate.

That's where McCain is strong, not because of any specific stance, but because in general Republicans win on foreign policy and of course McCain has all the experience there.

If I was a betting man I'd say that after the polls come in from the first debate a week from now we'll be back to a dead tie, with Obama hoping to regain the lead with the remaining debates.

not_so_new
23rd September 2008, 09:26 AM
I do expect a McCain bounce after Friday's debate, simply because it's the foreign policy debate.

That's where McCain is strong, not because of any specific stance, but because in general Republicans win on foreign policy and of course McCain has all the experience there.

If I was a betting man I'd say that after the polls come in from the first debate a week from now we'll be back to a dead tie, with Obama hoping to regain the lead with the remaining debates.

I mostly agree.. with three exceptions.

1) This race might be different but debates usually don't sway elections all that much unless there is a huge gaff (see below). Again, this race may be different.

2) McCain might have had the edge on this debate at one point but I seriously question his "togetherness" right now.

After the Shiite and Sunny, mixup earlier in the year and then the Spain interview tumble it makes me wounder if the campaign trail is starting to get to him. A huge gaff could cost him big. Obama can afford a gaff on foreign policy because it is already assumed he is behind on this point anyway, McCain has made this the strong selling point of his candidacy.

3) Often the "winner" of the debate is not the one with the most knowledge, it is the person who comes accost as the most likable. Obama might be an "elitist" :rolleyes: but he is a pretty charismatic individual, I would not count him out on questions of policy and that is before his charisma comes into play.

Couple this with the fact that McCain's saber rattling style might just wear a little thin and only associate him with Bush in people's minds.

Again, I wouldn't be too quick to give this debate to McCain before it plays out. I could very easly see this as a draw and we might end up with the same polling numbers on the other side.

MattusMaximus
23rd September 2008, 09:50 AM
Other good news for Obama in the CNN poll ...

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/22/cnn.poll/index.html

Wow, if that bears out in other polls - that McCain is starting to lose among both men and seniors - then I think it's going to be in the bag for Obama. I think this is especially bad for McCain now because in many states early voting will soon begin, if not already.

We'll see.

Latest from the prediction markets:

IEM-WTA (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 62.0
McCain 38.2

IEM-Vote Share (http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html)
Obama 51.0
McCain 46.7

Obama 52.3
McCain 46.1

Obama 55
McCain 45

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 10:12 AM
Gallup has Obama's lead at 3 today (47%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110608/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-3Point-Edge.aspx

Obama has averaged 46.3% support from registered voters since June 6, similar to his current 47%. McCain has averaged 43.5% over the same period, similar to his current 44%. The three-point lead for Obama in today's report precisely matches the average positioning of the candidates across the entire post-primaries period to date.

Gnu World Order
23rd September 2008, 10:12 AM
Wow, if that bears out in other polls - that McCain is starting to lose among both men and seniors - then I think it's going to be in the bag for Obama. I think this is especially bad for McCain now because in many states early voting will soon begin, if not already.

NOTHING is in the bag, at least until after all of the debates, and arguably not until election night. Remember, on Election Day of 2004, many people thought Kerry had it in 2004 based on the exit polls from THAT DAY, but the early polls turned out to be wrong.

Today, Gallup shows a tightening, to 47-44 Obama.

gdnp
23rd September 2008, 10:32 AM
It will be interesting to see how Iraq plays out in the debate: McCain will argue the surge was right, Obama will try to minimize the surge and argue it's time to get out. I don't see any other foreign policy issue divisive enough to throw many votes. Obama just needs to look presidential, knowledgeable, and thoughtful and he may "win" just by blunting the "inexperienced" charge. He just needs to demonstrate a command of the issues.

David Wong
23rd September 2008, 10:41 AM
Gallup has Obama's lead at 3 today (47%-44%) ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110608/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Holds-3Point-Edge.aspx

As Gallup points out, we're right back where we were before the campaign. Rewind back a year and a half, before ANY of this, and you saw the same 3-point lead for Obama in a then-hypothetical matchup with McCain.

Hundreds of millions of dollars with of ads, thousands of hours of news coverage, tens of thousands of newspaper stories, all the gaffes, the conventions, the VP picks, the hundred and hundreds of speeches and campaign stops.

And the polls have not moved an inch.

They've bounced, there have been tremors, and outliers. But in the long run, everything combined, nothing. Rock solid.

Obama by 3.

MattusMaximus
23rd September 2008, 10:48 AM
NOTHING is in the bag, at least until after all of the debates, and arguably not until election night. Remember, on Election Day of 2004, many people thought Kerry had it in 2004 based on the exit polls from THAT DAY, but the early polls turned out to be wrong.

Today, Gallup shows a tightening, to 47-44 Obama.

True enough. No one should go counting any chickens until after Election Day. And I don't think Obama's campaign is going to make past mistakes made by other Democratic candidates, such as resting on their laurels before Nov. 4th - they're too smart for that.

Wangler
23rd September 2008, 11:49 AM
Here is another interesting poll tidbit:

Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters (http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-hillary-s-voters;_ylt=AuveFR3_TewntLSJXTnlLGlp24cA)

"The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues."

Wangler
23rd September 2008, 11:54 AM
This graphic from the same story is also interesting; look at the bottom-most graphic.

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_2353648d93b420ca53.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=13903)

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 12:46 PM
State of the States ... at least the interesting ones ...

Kerry States in play:

Michigan (17)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 4 (48%-44%)

Minnesota (10)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - Rasmussen: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)

New Hampshire (4)
September 22 - University of New Hampshire: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 11 - CNN/Time: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)

Pennsylvania (21)
September 22 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (46%-44%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: Obama by 3 (48%-45%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 5 (49%-44%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Wisconsin (10)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

Bush States in play:

September 23 - PPP (D): Obama by 7 (51%-44%)
September 23 - Quinnipiac/WSJ/WP: Obama by 4 (49%-45%)
September 18 - InAdv/PollPosition : Obama by 10 (51%-41%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 1 (45%-44%)

Florida (27)
September 23 - NBC/Mason-Dixon: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 5 (51%-46%)
September 21 - Sun-Sentinel/R2000: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)
September 21 - Miami Herald/SP Times: McCain by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Tied (44%-44%)

Iowa (7)
September 21 - Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
September 19 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

September 22 - Suffolk University: McCain by 1 (46%-45%)

New Mexico (5)
September 22 - PPP (D): Obama by 11 (53%-42%)
September 18 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 8 (52%-44%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: Obama by 7 (49%-42%)

North Carolina (15)
September 22 - Rasmussen: McCain by 3 (50%-47%)
September 22 - Civitas/TelOpinion (R): Tied (45%-45%)

Ohio (20)
September 23 - InAdv/PollPosition: Tied (46%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 4 (50%-46%)
September 21 - Ohio Newspaper Poll: McCain by 6 (48%-42%)
September 19 - Marist: Obama by 2 (47%-45%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Obama by 1 (46%-45%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 1 (42%-41%)

Virginia (13)
September 22 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 6 (51%-45%)
September 22 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 3 (49%-46%)
September 22 - FOX News/Rasmussen: McCain by 2 (50%-48%)
September 18 - National Journal/FD: McCain by 7 (48%-41%)

not_so_new
23rd September 2008, 01:28 PM
This seems odd....

Iowa (7)
September 21 - Quad-City Times/R2000: Obama by 14 (53%-39%)
September 19 - SurveyUSA: Obama by 11 (54%-43%)
September 18 - Big10 Battleground: Tied (45%-45%)

Something seems off there.

I always hold a good deal of skeptisim for polling numbers.

MattusMaximus
23rd September 2008, 01:56 PM
I speculated in a previous post that perhaps the trouble McCain is having with economic issues in the past week could carry over onto the GOP in general. Well, it seems that there's a new poll (again, only one so far) that indicates this is the case...

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Call it the overlooked election. An intense battle is going on right now for control of Congress, but it's overshadowed in the media by a historic race for the White House.

So which party has the upper hand in the fight for Capitol Hill?

The answer, according to a new national poll, appears to be the Democrats. In a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Tuesday, 56 percent of those questioned are backing the Democratic candidate for Congress, while 42 percent support the Republicans.

That's a change from immediately after the GOP convention, when the Democrats had only a 3-point lead lead over the Republicans, 49 percent to 46 percent. ...

Now how much this is due to the inevitable demise of the GOP convention bounce and how much is due to the issue of the economy is still unknown. But if this bears out in other polls (anyone seen any on this question?), then not only is McCain's situation looking bleak, but it also seems the Republican party in general is in trouble in November.

MattusMaximus
23rd September 2008, 02:00 PM
This seems odd....

Something seems off there.

I always hold a good deal of skeptisim for polling numbers.

Your skepticism is well-placed. I tend not to really trust polls unless they can show consistent results from poll to poll. That's why whenever I post something about a specific poll here (such as my last post) I always ask others if they've seen similar polls on the same question.

If you haven't, you should watch this video about polling... :D

wySaC_z12GY

MattusMaximus
23rd September 2008, 02:08 PM
Here is another interesting poll tidbit:

Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters (http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-hillary-s-voters;_ylt=AuveFR3_TewntLSJXTnlLGlp24cA)

"The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues."

I was going to ask you if this was the only poll you've seen on the question, but when I read the article I saw this:

... Other September polls have shown Obama making progress in recent weeks with one-time Clinton backers and doing better with them than in the AP-Yahoo! News survey. One by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama with 78 percent of their support and McCain with 18 percent; another by ABC News and the Washington Post showed Obama ahead 72 percent to 23 percent.

Those figures measured Clinton supporters who are registered voters — who in the AP-Yahoo! News poll leaned toward Obama over McCain 61 percent to 26 percent. The discrepancies in the polls might come from how they were conducted. ...

So, on balance, it seems that while Obama is still having some trouble convincing the die-hard Clinton supporters (not surprising), he has made at least some progress in appealing to them as a group. Now, the real question is will it be enough progress to ease his victory in states that went overwhelmingly for Clinton in the primaries?

I find it tough to gauge from these damned inconsistent polls. Grrr :mad:

Wangler
23rd September 2008, 03:31 PM
I was going to ask you if this was the only poll you've seen on the question, but when I read the article I saw this:

So, on balance, it seems that while Obama is still having some trouble convincing the die-hard Clinton supporters (not surprising), he has made at least some progress in appealing to them as a group. Now, the real question is will it be enough progress to ease his victory in states that went overwhelmingly for Clinton in the primaries?

I find it tough to gauge from these damned inconsistent polls. Grrr :mad:

The part that I find hard to believe is that the "die hard Clinton supporters" are even considering McCain.

True die-hards like Hillary for her policial stances; methinks the "die hards" only think they are die hards, when they are actually "undecideds"

BenBurch
23rd September 2008, 04:11 PM
Indeed the true die-hards seem to be either voting for Cynthia McKinney or WRITING IN Hillary.

Foolmewunz
23rd September 2008, 04:24 PM
11 this year. Sorry, you have to cater to NJ too.

And you might have trouble losing some of those 40 states by 10 million votes. And by some of them, I mean all of them. You might consider dropping a 0, there. :)

I meant in total. In the world of absurd fantasy math, you could win the White House with a plurality of 1 vote each in 11 states (thanks for the update), and then not take a single vote in 39 states.

Pookster
23rd September 2008, 04:40 PM
This seems odd....

Something seems off there.

I always hold a good deal of skeptisim for polling numbers.

Obama has been polling very well in Iowa for some time.

MattusMaximus
23rd September 2008, 06:41 PM
The part that I find hard to believe is that the "die hard Clinton supporters" are even considering McCain.

True die-hards like Hillary for her policial stances; methinks the "die hards" only think they are die hards, when they are actually "undecideds"

Agreed. The "die-hard" label is a misnomer, in this context.

gdnp
23rd September 2008, 07:27 PM
Before bemoaning the fact that EVERY Hillary supporter will not support Obama, it is important to realize that not every supporter necessarily agreed with her stands on the issues. Some may have felt that having a woman in power outweighed any disagreements on the issues, and those people may be switching back to McCain/Palin because they are more philosophically in tune with the Republicans. Others vote on personality: My wife is turned off by Obama's style, but will hold her nose and vote for him.

Undesired Walrus
24th September 2008, 02:46 AM
Wow.

Obama up by 9 (http://www.agi.it/world/news/200809240949-pol-ren0002-art.html)

chipmunk stew
24th September 2008, 03:22 AM
Here is another interesting poll tidbit:

Poll: Obama struggling to win over Clinton voters (http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-hillary-s-voters;_ylt=AuveFR3_TewntLSJXTnlLGlp24cA)

"The problem that supporters of Clinton, the New York senator, have with Obama seems to flow from their measure of him as a candidate, not from issues."
People make too much of "Clinton voters". The only number that matters is the aggregate. If Obama has pulled ahead despite reluctant Clinton voters, then either they'll boost his numbers or they'll maintain the status quo. Either way, Obama is ahead.

There must be other segments of the voting population that matter more in this process, because Clinton voters haven't budged since June, but the numbers have.

Let's move on to things that matter...

edit: It's not as though Obama's share of Clinton voters is shrinking! I mean really...

chipmunk stew
24th September 2008, 03:29 AM
Wow.

Obama up by 9 (http://www.agi.it/world/news/200809240949-pol-ren0002-art.html)
It's an outlier, but it balances out another outlier putting McCain up by 2 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html). The RCP average has Obama up by 3.0 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html) this morning.

Pookster
24th September 2008, 04:31 AM
Wow.

Obama up by 9 (http://www.agi.it/world/news/200809240949-pol-ren0002-art.html)

A note from the ABC News/Wash Post poll ...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/23/AR2008092303667.html?hpid=topnews

As a point of comparison, neither of the last two Democratic nominees -- John F. Kerry in 2004 or Al Gore in 2000 -- recorded support above 50 percent in a pre-election poll by the Post and ABC News.

Two weeks ago, McCain held a substantial advantage among white voters, including newfound strength with white women. In the face of bad economic news, the two candidates now run about evenly among white women, and Obama has narrowed the overall gap among white voters to five percentage points.

The survey also found that the strong initial public reaction to Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, McCain's running mate, has cooled somewhat. Overall, her unfavorable rating has gone up by 10 points in the past two weeks, from 28 percent to 38 percent.

She remains broadly popular -- 52 percent of voters view her positively -- but there have been some notable declines. Over the past two weeks, the percentage of independents with favorable views of Palin dropped from 60 percent to 48 percent. Among independent women, the decline was particularly sharp, going from 65 percent to 43 percent.

And probably the worst news for McCain in all of this ...

Among Republicans, conservatives and white evangelical Protestants, strong enthusiasm for McCain's candidacy has dropped by double digits.

Pookster
24th September 2008, 04:34 AM
Here is a summary of most of the national polls out recently ...

September 24 - ABC News/Wash Post: Obama by 9 (52%-43%)
September 24 - Ipsos-McClatchy: Obama by 1 (44%-43%)
September 23 - Gallup Tracking: Obama by 3 (47%-44%)
September 23 - Hotline/FD Tracking: Obama by 4 (47%-43%)
September 23 - Rasmussen Tracking: Tied (48%-48%)
September 23 - Battleground Tracking: McCain by 2 (48%-46%)
September 22 - CNN/Opinion Research: Obama by 3 (48%-45%-Nader 4%-Barr 1%)
September 18 - Pew Research: Tied (46%-46%)

In two days, you have one poll showing McCain with a 2 point lead, and one with him being down by 9. I'm guessing it's Obama by 2-3 points right now.

Pookster
24th September 2008, 04:41 AM
Also from the WaPo poll ...

Independents, key swing voters, now break for Obama, 53 percent to 39 percent, reversing a small lead for McCain after the Republican convention. McCain is the choice of 86 percent of Republicans, while about as many Democrats, 88 percent, back Obama.

Pookster
24th September 2008, 06:31 AM
Rasmussen has Obama up by 2 today (49%-47%) ...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

It’s the first time in more than two weeks that Obama has enjoyed a lead larger than a single percentage point

As consumer and investor confidence keeps tumbling, 47% of voters now say the economy is the top voting issue for Election 2008. National security is a distant second at 19%. Seventy-six percent (76%) now say the economy is getting worse and just 25% of voters currently support the financial rescue plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson.

Undesired Walrus
24th September 2008, 07:03 AM
Obama's progress on the Rasmussen poll resembles taking a long, painful crap. The economic crisis is seemingly his constipation pill.

Pookster
24th September 2008, 07:14 AM
Obama's progress on the Rasmussen poll resembles taking a long, painful crap. The economic crisis is seemingly his constipation pill.

Rasmussen's poll doesn't swing as much as many others. It's why the convention bounces were so small.

Another national poll out - Hotline/FD Tracking has Obama up by 6 (48%-42%). This is up 2 points since yesterday for them as well.

gdnp
24th September 2008, 07:43 AM
Let's see how they look monday after the debate. Obama is going in with high expectations which may blunt any benefit from a good performance. On the other hand, if he looks presidential and holds his own it may blunt McCain's last remaining advantage, foreign policy/national security.