Why not make it a billion????

[billydkid]

Or a trillion??? There is just no such thing as the supernatural so there is no risk. Why wouldn't an insurance company back this? Why not a trillion dollar policy against the possibility that the universe will suddenly transform and become magical??? Frankly, a million sort of sounds piddling in this day and age.

[drkitten]

Or a trillion??? There is just no such thing as the supernatural so there is no risk. Why wouldn't an insurance company back this? Why not a trillion dollar policy against the possibility that the universe will suddenly transform and become magical??? Frankly, a million sort of sounds piddling in this day and age.

Because a billion dollars is a lot of money, and there aren't a lot of people out there with the resources to donate said billion. (Go ahead, phone Bill or Warren and ask them. I bet they'll say "no.")

The insurance idea sounds fine except 1) that the insurance companies would probably charge a fair piece for the insurance, and I'm not sure that JREF has that kind of money available (or would want to spend it just on the policy); even if the supernatural doesn't exist, there's say, 0.1% chance each year that Randi might screw up and test improperly? That means at least $10,000/year in insurance policies -- and 2) where are you going to find an insurance policy with a billion dollars in negotiable assets that could accept that kind of risk?

[webfusion]

I was watching "The Price is Right" and the final Showcase Showdown offered $1-Million to the contestant who guessed within $500 of the actual retail value of their prize package.

And it happened. The guy won the million ---- and I was left feeling sorta unfulfilled, like "wow, big whoop" like it was no big thing.

On the other hand, with the game show "Deal or No Deal" -- whoever wins THAT $1-Million indeed has earned it!

And I link the above comparison back to the quest for the JREF Million --- just getting there is half the fun! If you can somehow manage to win it, you've certainly earned it.

[Dumb All Over]

I vote for a scrillion. Or at the very least, a gazillion.

[tkingdoll]

Insurance companies would underwrite a much larger amount than the million, yes. That's not the point. One of the main accusations by woos is that the MDC is fixed to be unwinnable, because no-one would part with that amount of money. That's even truer for a billion.

If you just want to make a dramatic point, then a billion dollars is a funny headline, once. But it makes an even bigger mockery of the challenge because no-one in their right mind would enter it. It sounds completely unwinnable. And that just leaves you with the nutters. Which is where the MDC got to, and partially why it's ending.

And to be honest, if you're so sure that it's unwinnable (as you seem to be), then there is even less point in having a challenge. If you can't be credible, then no-one will care. Care to challenge me to a game I claim you can't win?

[Jimbo07]

Interestingly, competitions about real stuff, like the X-Prize, offer less money than development costs, so the incentive isn't really financial. The X-Prize prize produced an actual machine...

... now with the psychics (esp. the big names), they already have lots of money from their scams legitimate businesses that they don't need to compete for a jillion dollars!

In short:

i) real things (under award) --> real machines
ii) imaginary things (over award) --> nothing useful anyway

[Jimbo07]

Double post with a point!

ZOMG! I just thought of something...

What if a well-known psychic were to front a similar competition through a (un)willing stooge? They could even make it another magician! Then, headline:

Psychic Wins Million Dollars in Challenge: Powers Real

:boxedin:

ETA: hey... if the Creationists think that cooking up their own journals gives them cred, why not?

[chillzero]

Of topic posts split to:
http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=117539

Please remember to keep topics here strictly on topic, and strictly related to the MDC.

[Spacetime Inhabitant]

The amount offered has to be plausible, otherwise people will think not being serious.
Also, if the amount is massive, then someone would consider it worthwhile to invest a few million to develop some way to defeat the test, and may just find a tech way to do it. With a billion at stake, bribery is another option.

[Cuddles]

There is just no such thing as the supernatural so there is no risk.

But there is a risk. Even assuming that there is no such thing as the supernatural, every test is possible to win by chance. Not likely, but possible. At the moment, the odds are generally set to 1:1,000,000, or as close as possible. Would you want to accept the same odds with a thousand times as much money at stake? Even if the points already brought up in the thread were wrong, and I don't think they are, people already complain about how difficult and time consuming the tests are. How many people would actually apply if tests were many times longer? You'd almost certainly be looking at days, not only increasing the bother for all involved, but also the costs for the applicant, which is something many of them already struggle with.

[Zax63]

There is just no such thing as the supernatural so there is no risk.

But there is a risk. Even assuming that there is no such thing as the supernatural, every test is possible to win by chance. Not likely, but possible. At the moment, the odds are generally set to 1:1,000,000, or as close as possible. Would you want to accept the same odds with a thousand times as much money at stake? Even if the points already brought up in the thread were wrong, and I don't think they are, people already complain about how difficult and time consuming the tests are. How many people would actually apply if tests were many times longer? You'd almost certainly be looking at days, not only increasing the bother for all involved, but also the costs for the applicant, which is something many of them already struggle with.

There is also the possibility that someone could out think the testers. What kind of gimmicks could people come up with if they could spend say $500,000 and still expect a huge profit. I've had the idea that it might be possible to simulate a limited form of telepathy via surgically implanted devices. For a billion dollars, it would be worth the risk and the expense. I'm a little surprised no one has tried it for the MDC.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Another point is, the believers already like to say the money doesn't actually exist for the MDC. If the contest were set up based on an insurance policy, they'd be justified in saying the money doesn't exist.

ETA: And wouldn't the underwriter want to get involved in the testing process with a vested interested in the outcome?

[Hughnon]

I think it should be a billion. Frankly, I'm holding out on demonstrating my psychic powers until it's worth my while, and a million dollars just doesn't cut it these days.

[fishbait]

I vote for a scrillion. Or at the very least, a gazillion.I vote for 3 brazillians.

[Almo]

On the other hand, with the game show "Deal or No Deal" -- whoever wins THAT $1-Million indeed has earned it!

I disagree. That show is all luck.

[GzuzKryzt]

This topic has been thoroughly discussed before. Try the search function.

I would of course make it the entire universe. Since Randi is a magician, he has the powers to do so.

[Ron_Tomkins]

Why not make it a billion????

I was thinking "billions and billions" :)

[billydkid]

This topic has been thoroughly discussed before. Try the search function.

I would of course make it the entire universe. Since Randi is a magician, he has the powers to do so.thank God we have hall monitor types in here keeping all of us in line. I know the moderators can barely keep up with all the shenanigans of all we undisciplined posters.

[gdnp]

I vote for 3 brazillians.

I assume you are referring to these:

Donald Rumsfeld is giving the president his daily briefing. He concludes by saying: "Yesterday, 3 Brazilian soldiers were killed."

"OH NO!" the President exclaims. "That's terrible!"

His staff sits stunned at this display of emotion, nervously watching as the President sits, head in hands.

Finally, the President looks up and asks, "How many is a brazillion?"

Back to the point, I think that a million is about right: high enough to catch people's attention, low enough to be believable: that is, if you offered a trillion dollars, people would assume that the whole thing was bogus because there is no way that Randi has a trillion dollars. So a million is both credible and motivational.

Plus, it is not so high that if someone did win by chance or by trickery that it would be the end of the world.

[GzuzKryzt]

thank God we have hall monitor types in here keeping all of us in line. I know the moderators can barely keep up with all the shenanigans of all we undisciplined posters.

If you behave lazy or don't remember old-fashioned netiquette, expect to get called on it.

[Moochie]

Or a trillion??? There is just no such thing as the supernatural so there is no risk. Why wouldn't an insurance company back this? Why not a trillion dollar policy against the possibility that the universe will suddenly transform and become magical??? Frankly, a million sort of sounds piddling in this day and age.

Yeah, I've been saying similar for ages. The big earners in woo land such as Browne, Edward, et al, wouldn't stoop for a measly million. They earn many multiples of that during their careers.

But, you and I both know they'd come up with a million excuses for not accepting the challenge, no matter how large the reward. I can well understand why James would want to bring down the curtain on this particular aspect of the JREF. There are better ways to educate the public. The first hurdle may be getting believers in woo to question their own beliefs. They're generally averse to skeptics' telling them that their thinking may be delusional.


M.

[ma1ic3]

Instead of more money being put into the prize, I would rather see money go into making it The Million Dollar Challenge TV show.

[DevilsAdvocate]

Or a trillion??? There is just no such thing as the supernatural so there is no risk. Why wouldn't an insurance company back this? The insurance company would have to be involved in the test and take every action available to insure that the claim does not have to be paid. The insurance company would have to recognize the possibility that Randi could make an error in a test or even could be in cahoots with someone to lower the standards or allow cheating and then split the trillion bucks. Therefore, the tests would be overseen by an insurance company with a very significant financial interest to ensure that all applicants fail. These are exactly the types of unfounded accusations that have been thwarted against the JREF challenge. Were an insurance company involved, these would become well-founded accusations.

[DevilsAdvocate]

Instead of more money being put into the prize, I would rather see money go into making it The Million Dollar Challenge TV show.Hear, hear! I have long clamored for a JREF television show. Discuss everything from origins of myths and religions, to past fakers and current frauds, with an occasional paranormal test. Sort of like a psychic MythBusthers. Of course it is more difficult, because you can’t easily work in the explosions. Still seems like you could make a very interesting show. :)

[automatthias]

Hear, hear! I have long clamored for a JREF television show.

I can see a problem there: with shows like “America's got talent”, it's certain that someone is going to get the prize. Here, it wouldn't be like that.

I had another idea. What if the rules of the 'game' would be set up in such a way that:

- there would be a number of 'psychics'
- there would be a prize for proving psychic abilities
- there would be also a prize for debunking another contestant

We'd get psychics debunking each other.

[CFLarsen]

The money has to be there, ready for payment, in case the test is passed. One billion dollars is a lot of money just sitting there.

Insurance people base their rates on probabilities - they won't touch such a "bet", since they can't accurately assess how risky it is. And it is risky - especially since the field of woo is so fraught with crooks. They would effectively bet on them not being able to be cheated.

No insurance agent worth his salt ever really risks anything. Least of all money.

[dannagain]

It won't make any difference how much money is offered in the sense that increasing the prize money won't further the JREF's aims in any way.

[ma1ic3]

I can see a problem there: with shows like “America's got talent”, it's certain that someone is going to get the prize. Here, it wouldn't be like that.

I had another idea. What if the rules of the 'game' would be set up in such a way that:

- there would be a number of 'psychics'
- there would be a prize for proving psychic abilities
- there would be also a prize for debunking another contestant

We'd get psychics debunking each other.

That sounds like a good idea. We would probably have to make sure that each contestant is sufficiently different from one another so that they don't feel like they are debunking themselves as well when they are debunking the opponent.

[ma1ic3]

The money has to be there, ready for payment, in case the test is passed. One billion dollars is a lot of money just sitting there.

Insurance people base their rates on probabilities - they won't touch such a "bet", since they can't accurately assess how risky it is. And it is risky - especially since the field of woo is so fraught with crooks. They would effectively bet on them not being able to be cheated.

No insurance agent worth his salt ever really risks anything. Least of all money.

So far no one has even passed the preliminary test. The show could have the same setup, or a 3 stage process where the testing becomes more thorough.

Going with what automatthias mentioned before, the very 1st stage could let the woos challenge each other to see if some can be eliminated in that way for a smaller prize, such as $5,000 or $10,000. The more clever ones get to challenge someone much more perspective than a fellow psychic or some other woo, they get to challenge a magician such as James Randi.

[billydkid]

If you behave lazy or don't remember old-fashioned netiquette, expect to get called on it.Can you seriously imagine if everyone got called on every duplicate, triplicate, quadrupicate post in here what it would be like? Like "Define God" - that or something similar has been posted dozens of times and the same is true of many other topics. Maybe people should fret less about "netiquette" or worry more about trolls or those who pick fights for no particular reason.

[Cuddles]

Hear, hear! I have long clamored for a JREF television show. Discuss everything from origins of myths and religions, to past fakers and current frauds, with an occasional paranormal test. Sort of like a psychic MythBusthers. Of course it is more difficult, because you can’t easily work in the explosions. Still seems like you could make a very interesting show. :)

The problem with this is that it simply won't sell. Take the recent nonsense with Derek Ogilive for example. He took the challenge as part of a documentary for Channel 4 (I think). The scheduled showing has been cancelled and it seems unlikely they will ever show it at all, despite the same channel continuing to air Ogilive's "Baby Psychic" crap. Debunking just doesn't make popular enough TV.

[gdnp]

The problem with this is that it simply won't sell. Take the recent nonsense with Derek Ogilive for example. He took the challenge as part of a documentary for Channel 4 (I think). The scheduled showing has been cancelled and it seems unlikely they will ever show it at all, despite the same channel continuing to air Ogilive's "Baby Psychic" crap. Debunking just doesn't make popular enough TV.

It can be entertaining, as when Penn and Teller reveal the secrets of magic tricks. Watching psychics fail, however, would be about as entertaining as Al Capone's tomb. You'd be as likely to sell a program where professional wrestling is debunked. Even if you know it is fake, it is the illusion that it is real that makes it entertaining. Skeptics come off as party poopers. Which is fine if your goal is to protect people from being taken by charlatans, but not necessarily entertaining TV.

[Humphreys]

I agree with tking. The biggest argument against this is it makes the challenge sound like a joke. There would be far more complaints that the challenge is rigged if the prize money is unrealistically large.

$1 million is more than enough of an incentive to any reasonable person with real talents to enter and win.

I have never heard a would-be contender complain that the prize is too small. I believe he got more challengers when the prize was just $10,000. I honestly think a strong argument can be made for making the prize much smaller, rather than bigger, for all the reasons mentioned above.

Maybe we can add the prize of Randi wearing women's clothing and makeup for a whole year as well as the $1 million, as that would surely appeal to a lot of skeptic-bashers.

[ma1ic3]

I agree with tking. The biggest argument against this is it makes the challenge sound like a joke. There would be far more complaints that the challenge is rigged if the prize money is unrealistically large.

But then again, if it's a billion, it may get a ton more publicity and people may want to start recording it, which would make it hard to call a scam when the woo is being recorded.

A 1,000 * 1,000,000 is quite a bit of money. I wouldn't be surprised if it started to draw in a crowd.

[CFLarsen]

So far no one has even passed the preliminary test. The show could have the same setup, or a 3 stage process where the testing becomes more thorough.

Going with what automatthias mentioned before, the very 1st stage could let the woos challenge each other to see if some can be eliminated in that way for a smaller prize, such as $5,000 or $10,000. The more clever ones get to challenge someone much more perspective than a fellow psychic or some other woo, they get to challenge a magician such as James Randi.

You can forget about having woos challenge each other. They are not going to go on TV and spread doubt that any of them can do what they claim to be able to do.

Since they get eliminated one by one, a clear message is sent: Once these people are tested, they turn out to be crooks.

Not a chance in hell.

[Humphreys]

But then again, if it's a billion, it may get a ton more publicity and people may want to start recording it, which would make it hard to call a scam when the woo is being recorded.

A 1,000 * 1,000,000 is quite a bit of money. I wouldn't be surprised if it started to draw in a crowd.

That's true. It does have a bit of the Austin Powers Super Villain feel to it, though.

They'll think it's a trap...which it is.

[Brian-M]

Why exactly is the million dollar prize ending? As far as I'm concerned, the prize is a valuable weapon in any skeptic's armory. ("If he really can do that, why hasn't he claimed Randi's million dollars?")

[AndyD]

You can forget about having woos challenge each other. They are not going to go on TV and spread doubt that any of them can do what they claim to be able to do.

Since they get eliminated one by one, a clear message is sent: Once these people are tested, they turn out to be crooks.

Not a chance in hell.

It's happening already in Australia - with three evicted so far. And while it is true that their uselessness is exposed for all to see, it is also true that the website poll has grown to 66% believers and 34% skeptics.

How useless they look depends on the editing so the first difficulty is finding a TV producer/station willing to expose "psychic" frauds. This is where the Aussie show fails - the producers are very pro-psychic and have edited out as much as 80% of the cold-reading demonstrations, where the reader has recorded miss after miss, whilst televising all the hits.

[GzuzKryzt]

Why exactly is the million dollar prize ending? As far as I'm concerned, the prize is a valuable weapon in any skeptic's armory. ("If he really can do that, why hasn't he claimed Randi's million dollars?")

March 2009.

However, there remain many other challenges and prizes out there.