Possible June Shocker--Did McCain Outraise Obama?

[Brainster]

Yellow light on this story, but it will certainly come as a surprise if true. Remember when the media were reporting that Democratic fundraisers were projecting (http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/obama-could-raise-100-million-in-june-fundraisers-say-2008-06-09.html) that Barack Obama might raise as much as $100 million in the month of June?

Well, a couple of conservative bloggers are revising that projection down (http://race42008.com/2008/07/09/obamas-fundraising-problems-continue/).

There is a good chance Barack Obama’s fundraising total from June will be less than the $22 million he raised in May. No word on whether McCain’s fundraising total was up from then, but if you recall, Sen. McCain only came in $1 million behind Obama for the month.

Nothing is certain, but there is at least the possibility (remember-I said possibility) that John McCain outraised Barack Obama in June.

And here (http://www.thenextright.com/sean-oxendine/obama-fundraising-petering-out):

I'd been saying for a while that we could expect a major drop-off in [Obama's] fundraising. People have been crowing about his small donor base, and how he could keep tapping that.

But it isn't necessarily true. When I was in law school, I gave GWB $300 online after he was the presumptive nominee but before he was the actual nominee. But it would be foolish to assume that you could keep coming back to me again and again up to $4600. Or even up to $400. On my law student budget, that was it. Add in the "shiny new toy" aspect to Obamania back in February, and I think you can see why his fundraising has dropped off.

There is no hard explanation or sourcing given for why they speculate that fundraising did not significantly increase during June, which is one of the reasons I mentioned that the story deserves a yellow light for now. It is logical that the money tree might need extra shaking at this point in the campaign, now that the presumptive nominees have been identified and there are no more primaries to attract public interest. In addition, Barack has been raising money to help pay off Hillary's campaign debt (although there are complaints (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/07/obama-oops.html) that perhaps he's being a little half-hearted in that endeavor).

[chipmunk stew]

Obama's small donor base is in summer mode. There's no reason to believe that the fundraising won't ramp back up dramatically when the GE season officially starts.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

I've always been skeptical of the Obama fundraising estimates.

While theoretically small donors would be able to give a bunch of times, I don't think most will. Especially this early.

[corplinx]

With the PACs collecting millions on their behalves, how can we tell who really raised more more money since so much is indirect?

[Darth Rotor]

Possible June Shocker--Did McCain Outraise Obama?

What, they had a poker game instead of a town hall debate? :)

[Brainster]

What, they had a poker game instead of a town hall debate? :)

Yeah, and Obama didn't have the nuts, so he folded.

:)

[Puppycow]

Donors Asked To Give for Two
Clinton Debt Adds to Obama Burden (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/07/10/AR2008071002813.html?hpid=topnews)
By Matthew Mosk
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, July 11, 2008; Page A04

The fundraising machine Sen. Barack Obama is relying on to overwhelm Sen. John McCain this fall has shown signs of wear in recent weeks, as Internet contributions have slowed and efforts to recruit top donors to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign have been beset by lingering tensions.

In a conference call Wednesday night, a top Obama adviser told members of the senator's national finance committee that "there's a huge amount of money we need to raise, and we have to be aware of that," according to one person on the call, who said the campaign, combined with the Democratic National Committee, hopes to have raised $450 million by Election Day.

Several of Obama's top fundraisers said yesterday that they don't think trend lines showing three straight months of declining donations to the candidate are cause for concern. But they said the campaign has recognized it will need to expand efforts to raise money from high-dollar donors in order to meet budget projections.

"It's one of the reasons why the Clinton people are so important," said Kirk Wagar, Obama's Florida finance chairman. "Most of us have beaten our Rolodexes pretty badly."

To that end, Obama maintained a frenetic schedule of fundraising events this week, courting top Clinton bundlers and soaking up millions of dollars for the DNC.

The fact that they are keeping quiet about their June numbers suggests that it's not a very impressive number (compared to his past performance).

[Brainster]

McCain's number is on the board (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080710/ap_on_el_pr/mccain_money):

Republican presidential candidate John McCain raised more than $22 million in June, his best fundraising performance of the year, and ended the month with nearly $27 million cash on hand.

I certainly hope Obama doesn't change his numbers just enough to beat McCain.

:D

[chipmunk stew]

What, they had a poker game instead of a town hall debate? :)
That would definitely go in Obama's favor. If it were craps, on the other hand...
Candidates' Vices: Craps and Poker (http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1819898,00.html)

http://img.timeinc.net/time/daily/2008/0807/wgamblers_0714.jpg

[WildCat]

That would definitely go in Obama's favor. If it were craps, on the other hand...
Candidates' Vices: Craps and Poker (http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1819898,00.html)

http://img.timeinc.net/time/daily/2008/0807/wgamblers_0714.jpg
OMG, I'm definitely voting for Obama now. I can't vote for someone who only has 3 fingers on one hand...

[Brainster]

Matt Yglesias ties the fundraising drop (http://matthewyglesias.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/07/the_cash_machine.php) to Obama's mad dash to the center:

The combination of Obama mostly focusing on showing his more centrist side while also maintaining a stable lead in the polls seems to me to discourage activists from giving to the campaign. People are thinking to themselves, why not save that money and by a G3 iPhone or give it to progressive Senate candidate?

Possible, I suppose. I like the clever take from one of the commenters:

indeed. taking money out of your wallet is a difficult task when you're using one hand to hold your nose.

[Donal]

the hell kind of poker game is Obama playing? Looks like some kind of warped Omaha.

[hgc]

Today the WSJ reported that Obama raised $30 million in June. Obama campaign said "way off the mark," but didn't say how much they took in.

I'm intrigued. Way off by how much? On the high side or low side?

[joobz]

McCain's June shocker?
I think it's extremely inappropriate to report upon his sex life.

[T.A.M.]

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1133432920080711

TAM:)

[Donal]

McCain's June shocker?
I think it's extremely inappropriate to report upon his sex life.

Wow, thats a mental image I didn't need.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1133432920080711

TAM:)

Well, if this works out then it is quite the relief.

Otherwise I would have bashed Obama heavily for not doing public financing and bemoaned the Democrats losing the easiest election ever.

[T.A.M.]

I have read it on a few more sites, but it may all be coming from the same source. Likely he will release the numbers late this week coming.

They are considering the $30 Million a disappointment. Compared to his past fund raising efforts, I guess it is.

TAM:)

[Bob Klase]

OMG, I'm definitely voting for Obama now. I can't vote for someone who only has 3 fingers on one hand...

Pushed me the opposite way. Obama has no thumbs.

[David Wong]

They're not required to release the numbers until the 20th, I don't know why Friday became the unofficial deadline, maybe the campaign hinted that would be the day and didn't come through?

Either way, the motive doesn't appear to be to release it on a weekend and bury it in the news cycle, because obviously we still haven't seen it. I'm guessing they just didn't have their numbers together.

[Brainster]

Here's a video of Obama campaign manager Plouffe begging for more donations:

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/2Bj1KX_GabQ&hl=en"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/2Bj1KX_GabQ&hl=en" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

Patrick Ruffini notes that Obama is using telemarketing efforts (http://www.thenextright.com/patrick-ruffini/obama-telemarketers-armed-with-fisa-talking-points) to gin up fundraising:

It's also interesting that Obama is using telemarketing, usually the least efficient form of direct to market fundraising. Though he has to have used it at some other point in the campaign, I'm sure there was a great hope that the transition to online would obviate the need for more expensive fundraising techniques like mail and phones. This is also the first time I've heard of someone reporting an Obama telemarketing call. So, it looks like they're trying to squeeze out cash any way they can.

Sean Oxedine notes that when Barack has had good fundraising numbers to report, they've come out early (http://www.thenextright.com/sean-oxendine/obama-fundraising-ctd); when the numbers are bad they come out late:

Obama's record-breaking $55M fundraising haul in February was announced on March 6. Two days after the Ohio/Texas campaigns, when he desperately needed to release some good news.

Obama's pretty-darned-good $40M+ fundraising haul in March was announced on April 3, early in the month.

But Obama's now-under-expectations $31M in April wasn't announced until May 20. You remember, the day of the Oregon and Kentucky primary, when everyone was talking about things other than fundraising numbers?

And the May numbers ($22M) weren't announced until June 20. A Friday, aka "bury news day."

[hgc]

$52 million

[Pookster]

$52 million

Here's a link about it too ...

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/17/june-take-for-obamas-campaign-coffers-52-million/


Barack Obama's campaign raised $52 million last month, more than twice the amount of funds brought in by his rival, John McCain, according to campaign officials for the presumed Democratic presidential nominee. ...

[LawnOven]

Only 52 million?

Looks like the Obama campaign is in serious trouble already!

[Pookster]

Only 52 million?

Looks like the Obama campaign is in serious trouble already!


Beggars have to live with what they can get, you know.

[boloboffin]

I want to make sure it's stated openly about how Obama played this. The report comes out, Obama makes no signal about his fundraising, he even releases a fundraising letter that pointedly avoids any mention of how much he has raised...

...and then it's $52 million.

If there's any analogy here, it's that this is a basketball game, one-on-one, and Obama just executed a perfect head fake.

[David Wong]

I guess it makes sense in retrospect, if the numbers were low you'd want to get them out there ASAP to motivate donors (look at the huge boost Hillary got after announcing she had to loan her campaign money).

[DavidJames]

Take it to the bank, the $52m number will be spun by the repub folks to be bad. The amount, less then expected, or it was tainted money, or it was disparate last minute begging or, or, or....

Let's see what they say.

[Brainster]

It's a big number no doubt about it. But if there hadn't been this intervening story about Obama raising about $20 million, the take would have been "Obama raises half of what was expected," since the original projection was $100 million. So yeah, expectations got lowered and he exceeded them. Politics is all about managing expectations.

[Pookster]

Let me start by saying I wasn't even aware that there was a projection of $100 million until this thread, and I haven't followed the fundraising all that closely but ... was the 100 million projection really taken seriously or was it just some pie in the sky kind of talk?

[chipmunk stew]

It's a big number no doubt about it. But if there hadn't been this intervening story about Obama raising about $20 million, the take would have been "Obama raises half of what was expected," since the original projection was $100 million. So yeah, expectations got lowered and he exceeded them. Politics is all about managing expectations.
Wasn't it conservative bloggers who set the expectation so low?

[David Wong]

Right, and then the Wall Street Journal speculated that it was $30 million, at which point the Obama campaign fired back that it was way higher.

Either way, the title of this thread now looks utterly ridiculous.

[David Wong]

Thus I hereby propose that from now on ridiculously biased and inflammatory forum thread titles be referred to as "Brainsters."

[Pookster]

Some details about the $52 million ...

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/07/17/the-meaning-of-obama-s-52-million-month.aspx

... Two numbers tell the entire story: $2 million and $68. The latter is the average size of a contribution to the Obama campaign in June. The amazing thing is that it's about $30 lower than the average contribution in May, April or March. This indicates that the senator attracted a massive number of new $5, $10, $20 donors once the primaries ended--presumably from the ranks of devoted Dems who had (until then) supported Hillary Clinton. Going forward, the sustained growth of this small-sum base is by far Obama's biggest advantage over McCain, who's relying mostly on big-money people to max out and move along.

On the other hand, the $2 million--i.e., the meager amount Obama banked last month for the general election--symbolizes the challenges he still faces even though he more than doubled McCain's June tally. Of course, Obama doesn't need the general-election money now; in fact, he can't even start spending it until the end of August. ...

[Puppycow]

It's a big number no doubt about it. But if there hadn't been this intervening story about Obama raising about $20 million, the take would have been "Obama raises half of what was expected," since the original projection was $100 million. So yeah, expectations got lowered and he exceeded them. Politics is all about managing expectations.

Yes. Note however that you're the one who set the bar so low. :D
If some Obama fanboy here had started a thread speculating that Obama might have raised $100 million it would have been opposite.

[Pookster]

Wasn't it conservative bloggers who set the expectation so low?


I almost missed that it was conservative bloggers that Brainster was quoting. Too funny.

[hgc]

It's a big number no doubt about it. But if there hadn't been this intervening story about Obama raising about $20 million, the take would have been "Obama raises half of what was expected," since the original projection was $100 million. So yeah, expectations got lowered and he exceeded them. Politics is all about managing expectations.


Never heard about the $100 million June projection. Perhaps you have a cite?

I have heard $300 million projection for the campaign from point of Hillary's sunset. That's pretty optimistic too. Let's say that's for June thru October - 5 months. That's $60 million/month on average. So those numbers had better be creeping up over the coming months to hit that particular projection.

[hgc]

Right, and then the Wall Street Journal speculated that it was $30 million, at which point the Obama campaign fired back that it was way higher.


Slight correction: They didn't say way higher; they said way off - meaning possibility of it being way lower. Unlikely, but just keeping it accurate.

[Pookster]

Never heard about the $100 million June projection. Perhaps you have a cite?




The article Brainster linked to in the opening post supports what he said ...

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/obama-could-raise-100-million-in-june-fundraisers-say-2008-06-09.html


... Specifically, they say Obama could raise $100 million in June and could attract 2.5 million to 3 million new donors to his campaign. ...

...

... “One hundred million dollars this June — it’s definitely within reach,” said Wade Randlett, who has raised more than $200,000 for Obama.“ ...


... Alan Kessler, who served as one of Clinton’s national finance co-chairmen, said that Obama’s record-breaking fundraising has left little doubt that he could raise $100 million in a single month, a total that would have been considered impossible a few years ago. ...


However, the statements seem to be more speculative than anything else, but so was Brainster's statement. However, it seemed to morph into something more after that in the thread.

The fundraisers in the article don't seem to be part of Obama's campaign management, but I could be mistaken on that. So, I doubt this was coming from the Obama campaign itself.

[Sabrina]

Most of the bloggers on Obama's website seem to think it's entirely possible to get over that total in July. I've heard some say "let's shoot for 100 million" but no one's said they think it's definite that it will happen that way. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that his campaign well surpassed the prior record of 55 million in February though; they are, from what I've read on that site, extremely motivated folks. Many of them are currently spending most of their free time actively campaigning in their areas for Obama.

[Brainster]

They're going to need to be motivated; according to this article (http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/11905.html):

Obama’s fundraising total represents a turnaround from a steady decline in monthly income that began after his Iowa upset in January.

It also is the minimum the Illinois senator will need to generate each month between now and November if he is to match the more than $200 million budget the Republicans have set for boosting McCain’s campaign.

[gdnp]

It also demonstrates the hypocrisy of McCain criticizing Obama for opting out of federal funding for the general election. After opting out of federal funding in the primary McCain will accept the $86 million in federal funds for the general election, but the RNC is expected to spend another $200 million on his behalf. This makes the concept of "public financing" of the election a joke.

Then again, who knows how better to game the system than the guy who wrote the law?