Evangelical religious right not as numerous as we thought?

[MattusMaximus]

I just got this article from a friend. It outlines an argument that the hardcore religious right in the United States doesn't have as many people within its movement as they would have us believe. I have always maintained that the posturing on the part of most religious right leaders is basically a sign that they don't really have the numbers they claim, and this article seems to support my assertion.

A preview of statistics showing the evangelical slide (http://www.christinewicker.com/?p=25)

What are your thoughts on this? Is there any corroborating (or invalidating) evidence out there that someone could point me to on this issue?

[AgeGap]

What are your thoughts on this?
Thank **** for that. Americans I have met always seemed fairly smart. I could not match the stereotypical view of them with the reality. No doubting the Evangelical religious loudness though. This one goes up to eleven.
If 25% were as dumb as portrayed you'd be well on your way to hell in a handcart.

[paximperium]

They were never the most numerous. Most Christians are the decent "silent majority".

However, the evangelicals, especially those with Dominionist mindset have a lot of money in their pockets and a very savvy political strategy. However, don't underestimate how much power they hold.

[Dr H]

I just got this article from a friend. It outlines an argument that the hardcore religious right in the United States doesn't have as many people within its movement as they would have us believe. I have always maintained that the posturing on the part of most religious right leaders is basically a sign that they don't really have the numbers they claim, and this article seems to support my assertion.

A preview of statistics showing the evangelical slide (http://www.christinewicker.com/?p=25)

What are your thoughts on this? Is there any corroborating (or invalidating) evidence out there that someone could point me to on this issue?

I didn't see a source for the new stats, but surveys like this always end up being fuzzy because of definitional disputes.

For example, according to the 2000 US Census, Christians make up nearly 77% of the adult US population. Under "Christian" are 35 subcategories, including "Mormon/Latter Day Saints," Jehova's Witnesses," "Evangelical," "Born Again," "Christian--no denomination specified," and "Nondenominational".

http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/population.html

When I presented these stats in a discussion I was having with a missionary (Assemblies of God), he immediately called them into question because, as far as he was concerned, Mormons and JW's weren't Christians. (Some self-identified Christians don't consider Catholics to be Christians, and since "Catholic" is the largest single Christian category in the census their exclusion already cuts the Christian part of the population down to 52%.)

The Census report itself observes in a footnote that "open-ended categories" such as Evangelical, Born Again, and Nondenominational are "the most unstable, since they do not refer to clearly identifiable denominations, as much as underlying feelings about religion. Thus they may be the most subject to fluctuation over time."

And your guess is as good as mine as to what the distinction is between an alleged Christian who describes themselves as "Christian, no denomination supplied," and as "Christian, nondenominational."

So when it comes to identifying "evangelical" Christians, I expect that different people are going to include different denominations (and non-denominations) under that heading. The "Evangelical" Census category alone represents only about 0.5% of the adult population. Adding in those groups which I would classify as "evangelical," based on their doctrines and behavior (Pentecostals, for example), I come up with about 9% -- but this excludes Baptists, which are lumped together into a single group. Not all Baptists sects are alike, and some are decidedly more "evangelical" than others. If you include all the Baptists, the figure rises to about 24%.

OTOH, a Pew Survey claims that a little over 26% of American adults are "Evangelical Protestants," 18% "Mainline Protestants" (I had no idea IV drug use was such a huge Protestant problem :) ), 24% "Catholic," and 0.3% "Other Christian" -- Mormons and JW's get their own categories. And they do split the Baptists between the "Evangelical," and "Mainline" categories.

They also have a cetegory for "Historically Black Churches," which the Census does not, but they lack a category for "Humanist," which the Census does include.

http://religions.pewforum.org/affiliations

My favorite category in the Pew survey -- distinct from "atheist," "agnostic," and "other," -- is "nothing in particular," which allegedly comprises 12% of the population.

My gut feeling -- because I do engage a lot of religious types in debate, and so move in some of those circles -- is that the true number of "evangelicals" is probably somewhere in-between: around 10-15% (depending on the survey method used, incentives offered, and the phase of the moon...)

Your mileage may vary.

[Delvo]

Because the left has been so consistently using "evangelical" to mean "stupid raving lunatic" and making it a part of their general attack on Christianity for years, whether or not people call themselves that now has more to do with their avoidance of the label because it's an insult, or with their adoption of it as a matter of proud defiance and refusal to be intimidated into denying their Christianity, than with their belief in any particular religious concept. So it's become useless as a religious term because it doesn't identify a religious trait; it's a political one now.

[fxm]

It wasn't until I read Rapture Ready! by Daniel Radosh that I found out just how fuzzy the terms "born-again" and "evangelical" are. He mentions statistics from Gallup and Pew surveys, and also mentions statistics from the Barna Group, which is a Christian-oriented research company. Their definition of "evangelical" is fairly specific, and by their 2006 survey, only about 8% of Americans fall into this category (as opposed to "born-again", which is a broader category). About two-thirds of that 8% are politically conservative. Of course, most of them simply self-identify as "Christians".

[Dr H]

It wasn't until I read Rapture Ready! by Daniel Radosh that I found out just how fuzzy the terms "born-again" and "evangelical" are. He mentions statistics from Gallup and Pew surveys, and also mentions statistics from the Barna Group, which is a Christian-oriented research company. Their definition of "evangelical" is fairly specific, and by their 2006 survey, only about 8% of Americans fall into this category (as opposed to "born-again", which is a broader category). About two-thirds of that 8% are politically conservative. Of course, most of them simply self-identify as "Christians".

Even the Barna survey has its problems. They use a 9-point scale to define "evangelical," and most of the evangelicals I have met would indeed agree with most of the points on that scale. However, one of the points is a belief in Biblical literalism. I have met more than a few people who otherwise fit the "evangelical" description who nontheless are not Biblical literalists (this would include the missionary I mentioned in my last post).

Delvo is correct in pointing out that the term has become so politicized that it further mucks-up attempts to get an accurate count.

Historically, "evangelical" has often been synonymous with "fundamentalist," but in my experience it has gradually also taken on a missionary component. That is to say, one may be fundamentalist in their Christian beliefs, but in order to be considered an "evangelist" one also has to preach those beliefs to others.

Indeed, that component has given us a new quasi-generic meaning for "evangelist": one who actively preaches any doctrine, religious or not. Thus one even encounters the odd term "atheist evangelist," now and then.

[NoisyAstronomer]

Personally, I worry less about strict religious definitions, and more about how my fellow countrymen view science as related to religious beliefs.

Supposedly (I haven't seen the actual poll and so I remain skeptical), 41% of Americans are young Earth creationists: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_gallup_evolution_survey.php

More recent one: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108226/Republicans-Democrats-Differ-Creationism.aspx

[Dr H]

Personally, I worry less about strict religious definitions, and more about how my fellow countrymen view science as related to religious beliefs.

Supposedly (I haven't seen the actual poll and so I remain skeptical), 41% of Americans are young Earth creationists: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_gallup_evolution_survey.php

More recent one: http://www.gallup.com/poll/108226/Republicans-Democrats-Differ-Creationism.aspx

That is something to be concrened about. That and the fact that we recently had at least one potentially viable presidential candidate who is also a YEC.