Luck

[Zrealm]

I know I'm a newbie here so I hope this post is ok, tho I've been lurking for a while...

I had an interesting discussion the other day with a friend of mine, and was wondering if this would be considered an acceptable skill to apply for the MDC with. I know luck has regularly been designed against in tests - but is it itself an acceptable form of paranormal behavior?

Here are the 2 things he has claimed to be able to do (Note that I haven't, as of yet, seen demonstrations of either, so this is clearly not at the applicant stage, but I thought it was an interesting question anyway):

1) Given a multiple choice test (like one might have had in grade school), with all of the questions and answers removed, get over 25/30 correct.

So for example, question 1 might be:

1) Who is President of the United States?
A) George Bush
B) Bill Clinton
C) James Randi
D) Uri Gellar

but on the sheet he would be given it would be only shown as
1)
A)
B)
C)
D)

2) He claims to be able to 50/50 events at a rate exceeding 80%

Now, as I said, I don't know that either of these are actually true, and I of course wouldn't waste mine\his\JREFs time before doing some actually examination, but a look at the archives suggests noone has ever applied claiming supernatural luck.

What do you all think?

[Startz]

This is perfectly testable. But perhaps you should ask for a demonstration before going too much further. (And you might want to look at the challenge rules as well.)

[AntiTelharsic]

Given a multiple choice test (like one might have had in grade school), with all of the questions and answers removed, get over 25/30 correct.


The probability of getting at least 26/30 four-choice questions correct by guessing is 0.0000000000020239288; the odds against that are 494088520000 to 1.

Typically, the preliminary challenge doesn't require anything like those odds, however. If he could do 5/10 in each of 3 trials (probability of success: 0.00047687208) that would probably be a more reasonable target to aim for when negotiating a protocol.

As suggested, do ask for a demonstration. Your friend will probably find that he has too much confidence in his ability.

[rjh01]

You might also find that the ability disappears if you ask too many questions or ask for a demonstration.

[William Smith]

For a demonstration of your friend's claimed ability I recommend the following easy test - provided that online gambling is legal in your country:

1. Set a number of bets to be done, e.g. 30.

2. Choose basketball games, or any game where four quarters are played.

3. Select the bet "Quarter Scores". (This means one can bet on the quarter one thinks will be the one where the highest total score of both teams will be achieved.)

4. Without him looking at the screen, have him select the quarter he thinks will have the highest score.

5. Repeat 30 times and bet the minimum amount allowed, e.g. 50 cents.

6. The odds for the most probable winning bet are set at least 3.00, usually a bit higher.

7. However, if we calculate with odds of 3.00, this means he has to get ten correct to break even.

8. If your friend would routinely get even 15 or more correct - let alone 25 or more - he might start pre-ordering the custom-built yacht, the mansion in Southern France and the private jet.

Rough calculations with 3.00 odds:

10 correct to break even.
15 correct to win 150%+.
20 correct to win 200%+.
25 correct to win 250%+.

Let us know how this pans out. ;)

[lionking]

Wow lurking for a while is right! One post in three years! But welcome anyway and keep posting.

[Peristarkawan]

Not only should it be acceptable, but I would go so far as to suggest that this sort of claim is ideal. It sounds like this is something where JREF can just do a quick, simple test without getting bogged down by lengthy explanations and restrictions on the conditions under which the ability does or does not work.

[Jackalgirl]

Not only should it be acceptable, but I would go so far as to suggest that this sort of claim is ideal. It sounds like this is something where JREF can just do a quick, simple test without getting bogged down by lengthy explanations and restrictions on the conditions under which the ability does or does not work.

I sure hope so. And for someone with a real paranormal ability, you'd expect that. I'd like to see if it happens in this case; I rather suspect, though, that either the specific claim will shift into something that is either untestable or requires ferocious complication, or that it will disappear.

As to "bogged down by lengthy explanations" -- well, that can be fixed by Zrealm telling the friend to make sure that he reads the MDC rules first (http://www.randi.org/joom/content/view/40/32/). In particular, they specifically call for no explanations -- just a specific claim, a (brief) description of how that claim will be demonstrated, and the conditions for success.

Zrealm -- once your friend has read the Rules, make sure that he really, really understands a couple of salient points that have caused lots of problems in the past:

1) None of the rules will be modified or waived.
2) He will be required to have academic support (i.e., an affidavit from an academic person)
3) He will be required to have "media presence" (i.e., been reported on by the media or have been published).
4) He will be required to pay for any expenses (travel & lodging, as applicable, for himself and anyone involved in the test, retainers or other payments made to participants, etc). If his test is a simple and inexpensive one, such as the one that Gzuz suggested, all the better. We've had applicants in the past who want to demonstrate some kind of healing ability and want to find sick people, hire doctors, take before & after x-rays, etc...etc...etc...and somehow expect JREF to pay for it. Won't happen.

Finding out whether he is willing to conform to ALL of the rules is really is the first step -- even BEFORE asking "does this qualify for the MDC?"

[rjh01]

The OP was made 6.5 days ago. He has not been back since to add any more posts for any reason. I would have expected him to come back and say what he was doing. I leave you to work out the rest yourself.

[Zrealm]

The OP was made 6.5 days ago. He has not been back since to add any more posts for any reason. I would have expected him to come back and say what he was doing. I leave you to work out the rest yourself.

That's true - it has been a busy week at work.

I've told my friend in question what people said here - I mean, this was as much a general inquiry on whether luck was something that could be considered paranormal as the claims themselves. We're going to try this one out and then work from there...

[Zrealm]

As to "bogged down by lengthy explanations" -- well, that can be fixed by Zrealm telling the friend to make sure that he reads the MDC rules first[/url]. In particular, they specifically call for no explanations -- just a specific claim, a (brief) description of how that claim will be demonstrated, and the conditions for success.

Finding out whether he is willing to conform to ALL of the rules is really is the first step -- even BEFORE asking "does this qualify for the MDC?"

He is aware of all of these :) And certainly is not treating this as a game or a chance to wase people's time. This one should be simple - either he can do the things he's claimed or he can't :) If he can, it should be easy to demonstrate or not.

I asked in the forum because I thought it was an interesting question regardless - in all of the hundreds of posted claims, I didn't see a single one where someone used luck as their power, and most of the time people seem to want to downplay it as much as possible

[William Smith]

That's true - it has been a busy week at work.

I've told my friend in question what people said here - I mean, this was as much a general inquiry on whether luck was something that could be considered paranormal as the claims themselves. We're going to try this one out and then work from there...

How will you "try this one out" and will you let us know the results?

[petre]

I feel a salient point to add would be to note that applicants cannot remain anonymous once they formally apply for the challenge. You must use your real name to apply, and the JREF will not grant applicants anonymity. The JREF offers up $1 million dollars, and they ask applicants to offer up their reputation in return. I just mention it since I feel there's at least a small chance it may affect decisions going forward.

[dbw]

I suspect he "discovered" this ability by noticing that he does very well on multiple-choice tests, even when he hasn't studied. I have the same remarkable power, but I'm afraid it's just a useful skill for high school, not a paranormal ability.

Flip a coin ten times and see how many your friend guesses right. If it's more than 7 you may be on to something.

[quarky]

Lots of people also claim to be unlucky. Yet, i wonder if any of them could guess wrong on a coin flip 9 out of 10 times? Has this angle ever been worked?

[Zrealm]

How will you "try this one out" and will you let us know the results?


I was intending to do as #1 above, which he has suggested he could do - create a multiple choice test, delete all of the questions and answers, and send it off to him. I certainly don't think he will be able to do as he claimed - I thought the concept of luck-as-paranormal was interesting enough to post about anyway.

[dbw]

Lots of people also claim to be unlucky. Yet, i wonder if any of them could guess wrong on a coin flip 9 out of 10 times? Has this angle ever been worked?

But when they fail to guess wrong 9 out of 10 times, they'll say, "Look how unlucky I am! It didn't work when $1M was on the line!"

Seriously though. Let us know how it works, Zrealm.

[EHocking]

I was intending to do as #1 above, which he has suggested he could do - create a multiple choice test, delete all of the questions and answers, and send it off to him. I certainly don't think he will be able to do as he claimed - I thought the concept of luck-as-paranormal was interesting enough to post about anyway.This site, http://www.paulsquiz.com/ , has over 180 free, multiple choice pub quizzes. You could save yourself some time and also protect yourself from unconsciously adding in patterns into your invented questions by randomly select a quiz from this list. Even though I've made this public, the chances of your friend remembering over 180 Q/A sequences is unlikey.

[Zrealm]

This site, , has over 180 free, multiple choice pub quizzes. You could save yourself some time and also protect yourself from unconsciously adding in patterns into your invented questions by randomly select a quiz from this list. Even though I've made this public, the chances of your friend remembering over 180 Q/A sequences is unlikey.


Thanks - perfect!