Election Projection

[RazorEddie]

Found an interesting site today

http://election-projection.net/


If the election were held TODAY:

Probability of Win: McCain 9.5% Obama 89.9%

Expected Electoral Votes: McCain 231.2 Obama 306.8


They do a pretty good job at explaining their methodology, but I don't know enough about statistical analysis to know how valid their approach is.

<Insert applicable statements: no one knows for sure : polling data is unreliable : yadda yadda yadda>

RE

[Brainster]

I'm admittedly a McCain partisan, but I think anybody who puts Obama's chances at 90% today is dreaming. I'd compare it to a college basketball game where one team is ahead by 5 points. If there's only three seconds left in the game, then they've probably won it. If, on the other hand, it's halftime, then the team in the lead is probably not much better than 55% to win the ballgame. I think the real odds of Obama winning are around 60%; he's still more likely to win than McCain is, but no prohibitive favorite.

[RazorEddie]

I'm admittedly a McCain partisan, but I think anybody who puts Obama's chances at 90% today is dreaming. I'd compare it to a college basketball game where one team is ahead by 5 points. If there's only three seconds left in the game, then they've probably won it. If, on the other hand, it's halftime, then the team in the lead is probably not much better than 55% to win the ballgame. I think the real odds of Obama winning are around 60%; he's still more likely to win than McCain is, but no prohibitive favorite.

I actually agree, and the numbers provided were "If the election were held today". In your words... if there were only three seconds left in the game.

[Cleon]

Frankly, I think McCain is going to win.

If there's one thing I've learned, it's to never underestimate the Democrats' capacity for self-destruction. They're the Cincinnati Bengals of politics - forever snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The fact that they still can't figure out what to do about the Obama/Clinton rift is pretty strong evidence of this. The fact that the rift is there in the first place is even stronger.

[RazorEddie]

Frankly, I think McCain is going to win.

If there's one thing I've learned, it's to never underestimate the Democrats' capacity for self-destruction. They're the Cincinnati Bengals of politics - forever snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.


They don't have it sewn up by any means, and a lot of unforeseen things can happen between now and then.

That said... I think barring something catastrophic, the Dems will win the election in the end.

[jj]

The fact that they still can't figure out what to do about the Obama/Clinton rift is pretty strong evidence of this. The fact that the rift is there in the first place is even stronger.

It's not ever going to go away. Hil3ary has made it clear that it's "her way or the highway". Toward that end, she didn't shirk at all at using hit ads that have given the fodder to the McCampaign, and she knew well when she did it just what she was doing, too.

[ProbeX]

They don't have it sewn up by any means, and a lot of unforeseen things can happen between now and then.

That said... I think barring something catastrophic, the Dems will win the election in the end.

Agreed.

[Oliver]

Well, just to make it clear: 4 Years McCain means 4 Years Oliver in here!

However: Logic and approval rates of the current Administration tells me that there is no way whatsoever in hell that McCain could win. On the other Hand, America isn't the land of logic, so one wrong "Scream" or "FlagPin" could spoil the whole election....

Call me a dreamer, but I'm crossing my fingers nevertheless...

[kallsop]

It's surprising that after the mediagasm of the Obama World President Tour he's basically in a dead heat. I don't think much matters before the conventions. From then until November, that's the whole race. A poll now is meaningless, as past huge democrat leads have proven when they went on to lose.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

It's surprising that after the mediagasm of the Obama World President Tour he's basically in a dead heat. I don't think much matters before the conventions. From then until November, that's the whole race. A poll now is meaningless, as past huge democrat leads have proven when they went on to lose.

Yeah, all that talk about him being presumptuous and arrogant that The Media (TM) was peddling was really favorable for Obama.

[Lisa Simpson]

It's a dead heat according to national opinion polls. However, the "nation" doesn't matter. Individual states and their electoral votes do. So if one goes by opinion polls in individual states and adds up those state's electoral votes, Obama wins. However I have seen many a campaign go wildly one way or the other, so I'm not counting my Dem president before he hatches.

[JEROME DA GNOME]

Hillary is going to be the next President.

:gnome:

[Cleon]

Hillary is going to be the next President.

:gnome:

And flaming, hula-dancing monkeys will come flying out of my nether regions while singing the theme song to the Jeffersons.

:gnome:

[ProbeX]

Hillary is going to be the next President.

:gnome:

Some psychic on youtube agrees with you. Oh wait, no, she's an astrologer. Just wanted to let you know a valid source concurs with your assessment.

[ProbeX]

A poll now is meaningless, as past huge democrat leads have proven when they went on to lose.

Of course if multiple polls weren't showing McCain behind I bet you'd be singing a different song.

Here's what isn't being said in your post:

McCain is losing. It's best you focus on him right now.

This jealous obsession you have right now with Obama is troubling to say the least.

[Grizzly Bear]

I hate guessing games Xd
I'm McCain partisan... for lack of better wording. If you look at states like Florida where they are in dead heat as opinion polls are concerned Obama spent several million dollars in ad campaigns whereas Mcains' barely spent anything here. Heck McCain started off his bid almost penniless and he still has less funds than Obama... in that regard I think he's done remarkably well considering how the race has gone so far...

[kallsop]

This jealous obsession you have right now with Obama is troubling to say the least.


Your obsession with my posts is flattering but ultimately of no interest.

[Brainster]

I hate guessing games Xd
I'm McCain partisan... for lack of better wording. If you look at states like Florida where they are in dead heat as opinion polls are concerned Obama spent several million dollars in ad campaigns whereas Mcains' barely spent anything here. Heck McCain started off his bid almost penniless and he still has less funds than Obama... in that regard I think he's done remarkably well considering how the race has gone so far...

McCain's in excellent financial condition (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iU_P23eyGmxqE8EEa7ba6r86BpIwD92IRUG00). Obama raised quite a bit more than McCain in July, but he also outspent him by about the same amount with little to show for it.

McCain will get the one-time boost of $84 million after the convention, with no fund-raising efforts or expenses, so in the last two months Obama will have to raise $1.4 million per day just to stay even. And the RNC has much more dough than the DNC.

[Whiplash]

Frankly, I think McCain is going to win.

If there's one thing I've learned, it's to never underestimate the Democrats' capacity for self-destruction. They're the Cincinnati Bengals of politics - forever snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The fact that they still can't figure out what to do about the Obama/Clinton rift is pretty strong evidence of this. The fact that the rift is there in the first place is even stronger.

I have to agree. I have been wanting to say for a while that I think that McCain is going to win this. For the reasons you said, plus, I can't help but feel the full "racism" effect isn't in force yet. I suspect a great many people aren't really in complete awareness of this guys odds of wining, so few people really follow things closely until the last minute. It wouldn't suprise me if in the last month or two, as it becomes clear that this guy could become our president, that the more racist people will start to panic and turn.

Don't blame me for saying this. I don't agree with it. I don't endorse it. I'm acknowledging there are a lot of racist people out there, and I just have a feeling that hit winning hasn't really sunk in yet for many people, and that this thing is going to tighten up considerably in the next two months.

[ProbeX]

It wouldn't suprise me if in the last month or two, as it becomes clear that this guy could become our president, that the more racist people will start to panic and turn.

I would agree with you if there were less people who seem so passionate about the guy. But unfortunately for McCain, all the panicked Kool-Aid references and McCain's own whiny, insecure celebrity ad, is based in a very real phenomenon.

My guess is that, while there may be some who panic, there will be many others who would vote for him if they had to drink his p#ss to be able to do so.

... Like the droves of young people who heavily favor Obama, who keep buying all the Obamagear (shirts, posters, stickers, etc.), but aren't properly reflected in many of the national polls because they:

A. Don't use landline phones (calling cells is illegal)

and

B. Aren't around at night when the calls are made.

If anything, I expect just the opposite: a bigger victory than what the polls suggest now.

[Freddy]

And flaming, hula-dancing monkeys will come flying out of my nether regions while singing the theme song to the Jeffersons.

:gnome:

Would you settle for Hitler (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sCJTR3XeiAc) singing the theme song to the Jeffersons? (very funny)

[Pookster]

... Like the droves of young people who heavily favor Obama, who keep buying all the Obamagear (shirts, posters, stickers, etc.), but aren't properly reflected in many of the national polls because they:

A. Don't use landline phones (calling cells is illegal)

and

B. Aren't around at night when the calls are made.

If anything, I expect just the opposite: a bigger victory than what the polls suggest now.


This isn't quite accurate, at least for Gallup ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109552/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Remain-Tied.aspx

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

[GreyICE]

Frankly, I think McCain is going to win.

If there's one thing I've learned, it's to never underestimate the Democrats' capacity for self-destruction. They're the Cincinnati Bengals of politics - forever snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

The fact that they still can't figure out what to do about the Obama/Clinton rift is pretty strong evidence of this. The fact that the rift is there in the first place is even stronger.

Sure, this is definitely true, but don't forget the Democrats ace in the hole. Every time Bush craps himself in public, the fallout lands on the McCain campaign. They're going to have to do a nice dance to avoid the fallout from Bush's boneheaded maneuvers (see: Missile defenses in Poland)

[Freddy]

Sure, this is definitely true, but don't forget the Democrats ace in the hole. Every time Bush craps himself in public, the fallout lands on the McCain campaign. They're going to have to do a nice dance to avoid the fallout from Bush's boneheaded maneuvers (see: Missile defenses in Poland)

Why do you think the missile defense in Poland is a bad idea? We have limited options. We can't do nothing, and we certainly don't want a war with Russia (which this move will not cause). Poland wanted this after observing Russia's actions. So does Ukraine. We should let countries like Ukraine and Georgia into NATO as well. Who cares if it pisses off Russia? They're not dumb enough to attack a NATO member. They can be put in their place without any military action on the part of the U.S. That's called diplomacy with a backbone.

[GreyICE]

Why do you think the missile defense in Poland is a bad idea? We have limited options. We can't do nothing, and we certainly don't want a war with Russia (which this move will not cause). Poland wanted this after observing Russia's actions. So does Ukraine. We should let countries like Ukraine and Georgia into NATO as well. Who cares if it pisses off Russia? They're not dumb enough to attack a NATO member. They can be put in their place without any military action on the part of the U.S. That's called diplomacy with a backbone.

What exactly is that missile defense going to do if Russia does decide to launch some of its thousand-odd missiles?

Oh that's right, nothing. Nothing at all. Paper tiger much?

We certainly can do nothing, it's a hell of a lot better than pissing off nuclear powers for no reason. Why have we started a nuclear pissing contest?

[ProbeX]

This isn't quite accurate, at least for Gallup ...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109552/Gallup-Daily-McCain-Obama-Remain-Tied.aspx

Yes, Gallup is making some adjustments, but I haven't found any statements about being inclusive (calling a large enough sample group). And it could be that they aren't being inclusive enough, considering how expensive calling cells are, and the legal implication for charging up peoples' cell phones.

And still, Rasmussen isn't yet making an effort to include cells.

Pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com/blogs/gallup_adds_cell_phone_intervi.php)

"We [Gallup] screen for those individuals using cell phones who report not having a landline, and then interview a random sample thereof. We then weigh into the sample a proportionate percentage of these interviews conducted via cell phone."

It also doesn't address the many owners of cells have numbers that are unlisted.

Pew Research states their past studies have shown that excluding cell phones from renders the polls 1-2 points off. But this year is very different. There are record numbers of young people (many of them college students) who use cells only ... and again, many of whom have unlisted numbers. Past trends mean little when you have a political anomaly like Obama.

[mortimer]

... Like the droves of young people who heavily favor Obama, who keep buying all the Obamagear (shirts, posters, stickers, etc.), but aren't properly reflected in many of the national polls because they:

A. Don't use landline phones (calling cells is illegal)

and

B. Aren't around at night when the calls are made.


You forgot

C. Rarely vote anyway.

[Freddy]

What exactly is that missile defense going to do if Russia does decide to launch some of its thousand-odd missiles?

Oh that's right, nothing. Nothing at all. Paper tiger much?

We certainly can do nothing, it's a hell of a lot better than pissing off nuclear powers for no reason. Why have we started a nuclear pissing contest?


You're missing the point. Putting up the missile shields is a message to Russia that if they are going to be aggressive, then no one else is going to take into account that some particular action might piss them off. And piss them off it did. Letting Georgia, the Ukraine and other former soviet satellites into NATO means that any Russian aggression against any of them would mean war with NATO. Since Russia is not willing to start such a war, including all of their neighbors in NATO effectively contains them.

Or we can let them know we're afraid of making them angry. I'm sure that will deter further aggression.

[Jimbo07]

I'm sure that will deter further aggression.

...an admirable goal if you live in morbid fear of Russian aggression. ;)

... but...

... isn't missile defence a bit of a derail for this thread?

[Pookster]

Yes, Gallup is making some adjustments, but I haven't found any statements about being inclusive (calling a large enough sample group). And it could be that they aren't being inclusive enough, considering how expensive calling cells are, and the legal implication for charging up peoples' cell phones.


This is the problem with discerning the validity/accuracy of most any poll. They weight/adjust their polls for any number of variables. They don't usually tell you their exact methodology either.


And still, Rasmussen isn't yet making an effort to include cells.


They were pretty accurate 4 years ago with the outcome. It'll be interesting to see how accurate they are this time around.


"We [Gallup] screen for those individuals using cell phones who report not having a landline, and then interview a random sample thereof. We then weigh into the sample a proportionate percentage of these interviews conducted via cell phone."

It also doesn't address the many owners of cells have numbers that are unlisted.


I don't believe they use telephone listings. Typically polling organizations generate call lists randomly by exchange. Gallup (or any polling organization that includes cell phones) has to manually dial cell phone numbers though instead of using an automated dialer.

[Brainster]

Nate at 538 says it's anybody's ballgame (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/late-nite-polls-817.html):

Although Barack Obama remains a slight favorite in this election, his position is more vulnerable than at any point since the primaries concluded, and he no longer appears to have a built-in strength in the electoral college that we had attributed to him before.

The reason is a new poll out of Ohio, where Public Policy Polling now shows the race dead-even at 45-45. In a PPP poll conducted in July, Obama had led by 8; that poll had been largely responsible for propping up Obama's Ohio numbers. Our simulation model operates quite literally in shades of color, rather than a simple red:blue duality. However, with this poll figured in, we now figure McCain to be a very slight favorite in Ohio.

[chipmunk stew]

McCain's in excellent financial condition (http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iU_P23eyGmxqE8EEa7ba6r86BpIwD92IRUG00). Obama raised quite a bit more than McCain in July, but he also outspent him by about the same amount with little to show for it.

McCain will get the one-time boost of $84 million after the convention, with no fund-raising efforts or expenses, so in the last two months Obama will have to raise $1.4 million per day just to stay even. And the RNC has much more dough than the DNC.
I agree that McCain is in excellent financial condition. This is going to be a dogfight to the end.

However, the reason Obama has outspent McCain is because he's cast his net wider. McCain has actually outspent Obama (http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/ad_buyer_mccain_outspending_ob.php) where they've gone up head-to-head...with little to show for it.

I think this is all just pre-convention posturing and positioning, and neither camp expected to shift the numbers much. It's like all the tacking that takes place before a sailboat race starts.

[Pookster]

Nate at 538 says it's anybody's ballgame (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/late-nite-polls-817.html):


Nate seems to be unaware that Rasmussen had McCain up by 10 points at about the same time as the PPP poll that showed Obama up by 8.

I agree that it's anyone's ballgame, but that it has been all along. He's no more vulnerable now than he was a few months ago.