2012: The Insanity grows.

[dudalb]

The 2012 "The world is gonna end because the Mayan Calender says so" craziness is growing, and it gonna reach 2000k levels of kookiness before this is over.

The most recent example, from IMDB, a popular film site

http://www.imdb.com/board/bd0000007/thread/116058628

It gets really prime later on, when a few of the kooks post detailed explanations.
And it's only gonna get worse.

[Ixion]

My brain started hurting when the crazies started spouting about the "Alpha Draconians, aka Reptilians" and "Niburu". :boggled:

[ksbluesfan]

-KGg0BWFb-4

Has anybody seen this? They make a lot of claims about oracles and webbots, but don't back up their claims with evidence. Big shock, I know.

This is part 1 of 6.

They make the claim that the Mayan calendar is more precise than our own. I'm pretty sure that's not true.

[gdnp]

Cool. We have 4 more years. That's more than I would have predicted.

[Arthur Denton]

Cool. We have 4 more years. That's more than I would have predicted.

To quote Douglas Adams, its a "Gnab Gib", not something to worry about. And to quote the matrix (since this is a conspiracy) "it's inevitable".

[NoisyAstronomer]

Every time I see the 2012 apocalypse books in the "Science" section of Barnes and Noble, I move them. I wasn't sure where to, but settled on "Religion" and put it specifically in the creationism and ID section.

And I emailed B&N's customer service, but that probably got sucked into a black hole.

[cwalner]

-KGg0BWFb-4

Has anybody seen this? They make a lot of claims about oracles and webbots, but don't back up their claims with evidence. Big shock, I know.

my favorite at about 0:25
"Because History shows a surprisingly good track track record for those who say Doomsday is almost here." :confused:

Excuse me? Did I hear that correctly? Am I missing something, or did they just claim that all (or at least most) of the previous Doomsday predictions were hits despite the annoying little detail that THE WORLD IS STILL HERE.

Ok, going now, my brain hurts. :faint:

[BrianX]

Every time I see the 2012 apocalypse books in the "Science" section of Barnes and Noble, I move them. I wasn't sure where to, but settled on "Religion" and put it specifically in the creationism and ID section.

And I emailed B&N's customer service, but that probably got sucked into a black hole.

Good luck with that. Several notable science bloggers (most notably PZ Myers) discussed the idea a while back for books on cdesign proponentsism, and a number of people reminded said bloggers that it has no real effect except to annoy the people who have to reshelve the books.

You might be able to talk the operator of an independent bookstore into it, though. I was in a used bookstore once and suggested to the cashier that a Zecharia Sitchin book would be more appropriate under science fiction than non-fiction. For all I know she may have even reshelved it.

[Cuddles]

They make the claim that the Mayan calendar is more precise than our own. I'm pretty sure that's not true.

Well, it's at least as accurate as ours in the sense that it just carries on going into the future and doesn't predict that either the calendar or the whole world will end.

I just can't understand people who go with the Mayan calendar nonsense. At least most woo is actually based on something, but the whole basis of this is that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, which it doesn't. Or ever, for that matter.

[krelnik]

I saw a TV advertisement for a furniture store the other day that was advertising one of those "no interest" financing things where you get 0% for a while and then get clobbered. Well their tagline was "No interest until 2013!"

I immediately thought: wow, the Mayan calendar nuts should all buy their furniture there, because they'll never have to pay it off!

Wouldn't it be funny if a store like that targeted niche advertising at believer websites that said: "No interest until after the world ends!"


ETA: Yes, I know that most "no interest until..." deals do require you to make good faith payments up until the interest kicks in. Still, I thought it was funny.

[Polgara]

Doom re: Mayan predictions and people who accept things - just because.

Perhaps 2012 -will- produce Doomsday simply because enough people believe it, and will it into existence by placing defeating actions (or reactions) in motion.

Well, I survived Christian predictions re: the year 2000. -evil grin

[sophia8]

This 2012 nonsense comes up so often on the forums I hang around in that I've bookmarked a couple of useful links:
The Skeptic's Dictionary on 2012 (http://www.skepdic.com/maya.html)
BAUT 2012 threads (http://www.bautforum.com/off-topic-babbling/74881-something-scaring-hell-out-me.html#post1252850)
Make sure you have at least a couple of hours free before you click - there's a lot to read!

[Lanzy]

I worry enough about getting hit by a meteor, now this?

[Richard Masters]

I thought this had already been "debunked", in the sense that it wasn't even accurate to begin with. Are people really buying into the hype?

[Björn Toulouse]

Sometimes I feel like applauding the entrepreneurial hucksters for picking the pockets of the delusional for fun and profit. If people have not learned from the Y2K nuttiness then they never will. 2012 is just another convenient number to exploit until it also passes.

Asteroid 1997 XF11 is supposed to come close in 2028. Most models show it to be a clear miss but surely someone will drum up some fear and false data to keep this sort of business rolling.

Are there any other possible apocalyptic dates between 2012 and 2028 that I may have overlooked? There will be lean times for the charlatans if not.

[sophia8]

Are people really buying into the hype?
Yes. (http://2012base.com/)

[ksbluesfan]

my favorite at about 0:25
"Because History shows a surprisingly good track track record for those who say Doomsday is almost here." :confused:

Excuse me? Did I hear that correctly? Am I missing something, or did they just claim that all (or at least most) of the previous Doomsday predictions were hits despite the annoying little detail that THE WORLD IS STILL HERE.

Ok, going now, my brain hurts. :faint:

I think you misunderstood. They were trying to make the claim that groups, like the Mayans, who predicted the end would come in 2012 made other predictions that were accurate.

[Fredrik]

The most recent example, from IMDB, a popular film site

http://www.imdb.com/board/bd0000007/thread/116058628

Thanks for posting that. This one made my day:


Does anyone have a valid argument against 2012 doomsday?

:D

A few years ago, in a Swedish forum, someone asked "what do you think will happen in 2012?" and one moron answered "I think we will stop living in 3 dimensions and start living in 5 dimensions". I don't think he was joking.

[Fredrik]

They were trying to make the claim that groups, like the Mayans, who predicted the end would come in 2012 made other predictions that were accurate.
I don't think they predicted that the world would end in 2012. They just invented a calender that hits a big round number some time during 2012. So it's just like Y2K, except that the number is much bigger in this case.

Edit: I tried to look it up. Apparently there's a Mayan creation myth that describes how the gods made three failed attempts to create a world. The fourth attempt was successful, and the result was our world. The third world ended at the start of the 13th baktun. A baktun is 144000 days, or approximately 395 years. The 12th baktun of the mesoamerican long count calender ends on december 21, 2012. I don't think they ever claimed that the fourth world would end at that time.

[ksbluesfan]

One thing in the video I posted that confused me was the Web-Bot Project. The makers of that TV show claimed that the Web-Bot predicted several events. Does anybody have any information on the Web-Bot Project? The only hits I got were from woo-woo sites. If there really was a Web-Bot Project, I would think they would have a website. Maybe they could figure out HTML.

[sophia8]

One thing in the video I posted that confused me was the Web-Bot Project. The makers of that TV show claimed that the Web-Bot predicted several events. Does anybody have any information on the Web-Bot Project? The only hits I got were from woo-woo sites. If there really was a Web-Bot Project, I would think they would have a website. Maybe they could figure out HTML.
From here: (http://urbansurvival.com/simplebots.htm)
A system of spiders, agents, and wanderers travel the Internet, much like a search engine robot, and look for particular kinds of words. It targets discussion groups, translation sites, and places were regular people post a lot of text.

When a "target word" was found, or something that was lexically similar, the web bots take a small 2048 byte snip of surrounding text and send it to a central collection point. The collected data at times approached 100 GB sample sizes and we could have used terabytes. The collected data was then filtered, using at least 7-layers of linguistic processing in Prolog, which was then reduced to numbers and then a resultant series of scatter chart plots on multiple layers of Intellicad ( http://www.cadinfo.net/icad/icadhis.htm ). Viewed over a period of time, the scatter chart points tended to coalesce into highly concentrated areas. Each dot on the scatter chart might represent one word or several hundred.
It was apparently developed for stock market predictions, using the premise that people on the web would be spending lots of time discussing promising new technology and trends. Doesn't seem to have been too successful though - the company's website is now a link farm.
However, the wooists seem to believe it could still have an application in general world prediction, on account of how people will tend to talk about what's bothering them subconciously / what their precognition faculty tells them*.
The link gives an example of a "successful" prediction- it looks like a classic example of retrofitting.

*They don't seem to have considered the possibility that the bot is simply picking up on the huge expansion in internet discussion about 2012 / the end of the world.

[Alareth]

I survived the Jupiter Effect back in '82, I'll survive the Mayan calendar.

[ksbluesfan]

Thanks Sophia8. I wonder if the web-bot project was able to predict it's parent company would go out of business.

[theMark]

my favorite at about 0:25
"Because History shows a surprisingly good track track record for those who say Doomsday is almost here." :confused:

Excuse me? Did I hear that correctly? Am I missing something, or did they just claim that all (or at least most) of the previous Doomsday predictions were hits despite the annoying little detail that THE WORLD IS STILL HERE.

Ok, going now, my brain hurts. :faint:

No, no, no. Mind the careful wording: "is almost here."
So? The world is still here. Ergo, they are right. Doomsday is almost here.

Now those who said, Doomsday will happen on day X, well ... their bad.

:p

[NoisyAstronomer]

Good luck with that. Several notable science bloggers (most notably PZ Myers) discussed the idea a while back for books on cdesign proponentsism, and a number of people reminded said bloggers that it has no real effect except to annoy the people who have to reshelve the books.

You might be able to talk the operator of an independent bookstore into it, though. I was in a used bookstore once and suggested to the cashier that a Zecharia Sitchin book would be more appropriate under science fiction than non-fiction. For all I know she may have even reshelved it.

Hehe, I'll remember that. I haven't caught such mislabelling in my little used book stores yet!

[Cuddles]

Sometimes I feel like applauding the entrepreneurial hucksters for picking the pockets of the delusional for fun and profit. If people have not learned from the Y2K nuttiness then they never will. 2012 is just another convenient number to exploit until it also passes.

To be fair, Y2K was at least based on something real. Many computers would have had serious problems, including those in important places where you really don't want any problems. The reason nothing much happened in the end was because a lot of time and money was spent fixing things before the event. There was a lot of nuttiness around as well, but I think it's rather unfair when people just dismiss Y2K as pure hype, when there were real, serious problems involved as well.

I don't think they predicted that the world would end in 2012. They just invented a calender that hits a big round number some time during 2012. So it's just like Y2K, except that the number is much bigger in this case.

Exactly. The Mayan calendars are made up of several smaller cycles which can be combined to form the long count. This is no different from us having weeks, months and years, and then using them to have a count that starts at 1 and then just keeps on counting up. 2012 is simply the equivalent of our calendar ticking over from 999 to 1000. No-one thought that means the world ended or that that was the end of the calendar, you just need to use an extra digit to write it. In the case of the Mayans, they did sometimes use the extra digit before it was needed, effectively writing 0999, which shows that they didn't consider it to be the end of anything.

[Maus]

If by some minute chance a global catastrophic event does occur on Dec 21, 2012 my last thought will be, "damn, those kooky Mayans had it right." Until then I will keep playing the lottery, I feel my odds of winning that are far better.

-Maus

[creativecritter41]

My brain started hurting when the crazies started spouting about the "Alpha Draconians, aka Reptilians" and "Niburu". :boggled:

LOL! I've been reading about the Reptilians from nut jobs for years now. Just visit Astraldynamics.com or Astralpulse.com Those kind of sites seem to attract people with severe mental issues.

[Ixion]

LOL! I've been reading about the Reptilians from nut jobs for years now. Just visit Astraldynamics.com or Astralpulse.com Those kind of sites seem to attract people with severe mental issues.

I'm afraid my computer might explode if I go to those sites.

[dudalb]

I just can't understand people who go with the Mayan calendar nonsense. At least most woo is actually based on something, but the whole basis of this is that the Mayan calendar ends in 2012, which it doesn't. Or ever, for that matter.

That is what is amazing about this. Every reputable expert on Mayan Civilization has stated this whole theory is a huge crock of you know what . But that does keep the woos woos from buying into it.

[dudalb]

And of course Hollywood is exploiting this nonsense...with Roland Emmerich...the guy who gave us that wonderfully accurate film about 10'000 Ad....in the lead:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1190080/.

Btween the gross historical innaccuracies of "The Patriot" ,his total distortion of the Global Warming issue in "Day After Tommorow" (when he asked the major enviormental groups to endorse the film they refused because the science in it was so bad) and the laughable "100'00 AD" and now this I really hate Emmerich for reason aside from his total lack of skills as a filmmaker.
And I still have not forgiven him for what he did to the Big Guy in his version of "Godzilla".

[Ixion]

And of course Hollywood is exploiting this nonsense...with Roland Emmerich...the guy who gave us that wonderfully accurate film about 10'000 Ad....in the lead:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1190080/.

Btween the gross historical innaccuracies of "The Patriot" ,his total distortion of the Global Warming issue in "Day After Tommorow" (when he asked the major enviormental groups to endorse the film they refused because the science in it was so bad) and the laughable "100'00 AD" and now this I really hate Emmerich for reason aside from his total lack of skills as a filmmaker.
And I still have not forgiven him for what he did to the Big Guy in his version of "Godzilla".

I want to know how, after making so many bad movies, he continues to get well-known actors on board to make more. I mean, he is only like a 3 on the Boll scale, but nevertheless, you would think the actors would get a clue. Pretty soon, it will be direct-to-video movies for him.

[gdnp]

That is what is amazing about this. Every reputable expert on Mayan Civilization has stated this whole theory is a huge crock of you know what . But that does keep the woos woos from buying into it.

Sorry, if I'm going to listen to doomsday predictions from a civilization, I'm going to choose a civilization that hasn't already died out itself.

[dudalb]

I want to know how, after making so many bad movies, he continues to get well-known actors on board to make more. I mean, he is only like a 3 on the Boll scale, but nevertheless, you would think the actors would get a clue. Pretty soon, it will be direct-to-video movies for him.


Because Emmerich's movies have, until 10'000 AD, all been money makers. Even "Godzilla" although it was not the huge hit everybody expected, made a nice profit.
"Day After Tommorow", as bad as it is, was a huge money maker for Fox.

As long as his films make a good profit, it does not matter how bad they are,he will get funding for his films. I guess the well known actors get a precentage of the Gross.
I despise Emmerich as much as you do, but he still has long way to go before going to direct to video movies.
Uwe Boll, on the other hand is a mystery. His films have all lost money but he continues in the business.

[maxfrost]

I was in a discussion with a believer on another site who corrected me when I made a reference to the end of the world. He claimed that, no, not the end of a world, but a change in consciousness, perhaps a "tidal dissonance," although I have no idea what that is. He also attempted to correlate the Mayan calendar with the 6,000-year-cycle of the Earth's wobble, claiming that it would return to its starting point on the same date, 12/21/12.

[Ixion]

Uwe Boll, on the other hand is a mystery. His films have all lost money but he continues in the business.

Uwe Boll intends on not making money. It is based on a German tax law. The loophole has been closed (in my understanding) but won't take effect for several years, so he can continue making bad movies. The way the German law works is that investors can place money on a German movie production. Then, when the movie comes out, if it does not make money, the investors can write off 100% of the investment as a tax shelter. They only have to pay taxes on their investment if it actually makes money. Furthermore, the law obscurely only seems to apply to box office figures, and not DVD or product sales, thus, the millions of dollars invested into the movies are written off from taxes, but the investors get a cut of the DVD and product sales (of course, which are taxable, but didn't require the initial investment). Uwe Boll has admitted that this is how he makes money, which is why the loophole was closed, and why he only uses German investors for his films.

[godless dave]

They make the claim that the Mayan calendar is more precise than our own. I'm pretty sure that's not true.

Even if it were true - so what?

[godless dave]

I thought this had already been "debunked", in the sense that it wasn't even accurate to begin with.

When has that ever made a difference?

[dudalb]

Uwe Boll intends on not making money. It is based on a German tax law. The loophole has been closed (in my understanding) but won't take effect for several years, so he can continue making bad movies. The way the German law works is that investors can place money on a German movie production. Then, when the movie comes out, if it does not make money, the investors can write off 100% of the investment as a tax shelter. They only have to pay taxes on their investment if it actually makes money. Furthermore, the law obscurely only seems to apply to box office figures, and not DVD or product sales, thus, the millions of dollars invested into the movies are written off from taxes, but the investors get a cut of the DVD and product sales (of course, which are taxable, but didn't require the initial investment). Uwe Boll has admitted that this is how he makes money, which is why the loophole was closed, and why he only uses German investors for his films.

GOd, I had forgotten that. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Loophole gone.
I note that almost all of Uwe's future projects are direct to DVD.
At least Emmerich can make a legitimate profit with his garbage. Uwe cannot even claim that.

[sophia8]

He also attempted to correlate the Mayan calendar with the 6,000-year-cycle of the Earth's wobble, claiming that it would return to its starting point on the same date, 12/21/12.
That's a favourite of the 2012 wooists, and they always get it wrong. First off, the figure is 26,000 years - they're referring to Precession (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precession). Second, nothing is "returning to its starting point", anymore than the Moon "returns to its starting point" in it's orbit each month. All that's happening is that, thanks to precession, the Winter Solstice sunrise is currently lined up against the centre of the Milky Way, and has been every December 20th/21st for at least the last decade, thanks to the slowness of celestial movements. This Winter Solstice point will continue to move with majestic slowness across the background of the stars for the next 26,000 years, and for the next 26,000 years after that, and so on .
What the wooists never mention (because they're totally ignorant about astronomy) is that in about 6.5 millennia from now, it will be the turn of the Autumn Equinox sunrise to take place against the centre of the Milky Way; after that, it will be the turn of the Summer Solstice, then the Spring Equinox, and then the Winter equinox again. And so on and on until the Universe swallows itself.
The narrowness of vision of these idiots never ceases to amaze (and depress) me; if it's not happening right here, right now, it's not happening at all.

[dudalb]

When has that ever made a difference?


PT Barnum's statement on the Birth Rate Of The Extremely Gullible remains as true today as it ever was.

[Earthborn]

until 10'000 ADI'm fairly sure the film is called 10'000 BC. For realism he probably should have called it 10'000 AD. :)

[dudalb]

I'm fairly sure the film is called 10'000 BC. For realism he probably should have called it 10'000 AD. :)

OUCH!
My bad.
It is 10'000 BC.

[Cuddles]

his total distortion of the Global Warming issue in "Day After Tommorow" (when he asked the major enviormental groups to endorse the film they refused because the science in it was so bad)

I actually finally saw that recently. I tend to watch quite a lot of really bad b-movies and generally low-budget crap, but without a doubt, The Day After Tomorrow is by far the worst film I have ever seen. How the hell did anyone ever think that people running down a street shouting "Oh noes! Global warming is chasing us!" was a good idea? It's bad enough when people do this with regular monsters, but climate change? If I hadn't been laughing so much I would probably have thrown various pointy things through the TV.

[Ixion]

I actually finally saw that recently. I tend to watch quite a lot of really bad b-movies and generally low-budget crap, but without a doubt, The Day After Tomorrow is by far the worst film I have ever seen. How the hell did anyone ever think that people running down a street shouting "Oh noes! Global warming is chasing us!" was a good idea? It's bad enough when people do this with regular monsters, but climate change? If I hadn't been laughing so much I would probably have thrown various pointy things through the TV.

I don't know which was worse, "Day After Tomorrow" or "The Core". The science is so dismal in both that it is just painful to sit through.

[dudalb]

Oh, "Day After Tommorow", because it is exploiting a serious issue,whereas the Core is just bad science.

[gdnp]

I don't know which was worse, "Day After Tomorrow" or "The Core". The science is so dismal in both that it is just painful to sit through.

Which was the movie where the earth flash froze? That had to have been the stupidest science I have ever seen.

[FramerDave]

Every time I see the 2012 apocalypse books in the "Science" section of Barnes and Noble, I move them. I wasn't sure where to, but settled on "Religion" and put it specifically in the creationism and ID section.

And I emailed B&N's customer service, but that probably got sucked into a black hole.

I usually put that sort of stuff and ID books in the SciFi and Fantasy section.

[dudalb]

Which was the movie where the earth flash froze? That had to have been the stupidest science I have ever seen.

I like the way that New York City is taken over by giant killer Wolves after about three days.
ANd Emmrich is not just fond of bad Science. He is also fond of bad history, as "The Patriot" shows. Anybody who has hands on experience with muzzle loading weapons laughed their head off at the speed with which Mel Gibson could reload his rifle. You had to be the Flash to reload that fast...

[moon1969]

Isn"t the 2012 in some X-Files episode where Mulder and Scully talk to the Cigarette Smoking Man?

[CurtC]

What about the idea that in 2012, the solar system will pass through the plane of the galaxy? Seems like I had heard that one on the Skeptoid podcast, but I just checked and it's not there. A co-worker yesterday mentioned how the North Star will no longer be the North Star after 2012 because of this passage across the plane, and it will be "some other star." I asked if it was Vega, and he said yes, then I said that this would be many thousands of years from now, but he insisted it would be fairly sudden in 2012.

I tried to appeal to his sense of physics (which he has some of), asking wither the Earth's axis of rotation will suddenly shift, and what kind of forces that would take, or whether Polaris and Vega would actually move light-years distant suddenly. He just insisted it was true and promised to send me informative links. I haven't seen them yet, but is this galactic plane idea common?

[Steelmage]

This is all so funny, specailly when we know Skynet will destory the whole in 2011, and the terminator cyborgs are coming to get us. ;)

[TinfoilCat]

I'm 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent sure this is all baloney. Hey, theres still a chance :D

The problem is that I am an EXTREMELY gullible person, so every time I go on a site on youtube, I end up watching a doomsday video and then get saddened. These thoughts are always in my head, and I hate it.

[Richard Masters]

I'm 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent sure this is all baloney. Hey, theres still a chance :D

The problem is that I am an EXTREMELY gullible person, so every time I go on a site on youtube, I end up watching a doomsday video and then get saddened. These thoughts are always in my head, and I hate it.

I suspect GAD and OCD, not gullibility.

[TinfoilCat]

I suspect GAD and OCD, not gullibility.

Doubt it. I think about the possibilities of these events happening and try to find ration and logical evidence. Its not that I depress over these things with no hope, I disprove them.

[ozziemate]

I don't think they predicted that the world would end in 2012. They just invented a calender that hits a big round number some time during 2012. So it's just like Y2K, except that the number is much bigger in this case.

Edit: I tried to look it up. Apparently there's a Mayan creation myth that describes how the gods made three failed attempts to create a world. The fourth attempt was successful, and the result was our world. The third world ended at the start of the 13th baktun. A baktun is 144000 days, or approximately 395 years. The 12th baktun of the mesoamerican long count calender ends on december 21, 2012. I don't think they ever claimed that the fourth world would end at that time.
agrees to a point...they predict the emergence of God if I am not mistaken. "God either emerges or the universe ends." which of course is no consolation to the critics of 2012. Any ways I happen to believe the calander is mistaken and about 4 years too late...ha

[Soapy Sam]

Stuff I need to know about Mayan Calendars.

So, is anyone selling Mayan Calendars for 2013?
Did the Mayans do a topless version?
Is there a Mayan Desk Diary- and if so is there a five year one?
Is the 2010-2015 one 40% off?

[Ashles]

Oh, "Day After Tommorow", because it is exploiting a serious issue,whereas the Core is just bad science.
The Core transcends bad science to a point where it becomes hypnotic.

(I mean really, a girl? On a science team?)