How hard is it to create a hoax conspiracy?

[Arthur Denton]

I have given considerable thought to conspiracies, and since they seem to be everywhere (people seem to prefer denying the concrete facts and believing in the dubious way to explain things always) from economy to bubble gum, I came to the following conclusion:

There must be a formula.

A what's to do.

A Conspiracy Theory for Dummies.

Since mr. Randi has made up (with the help of other people) some fantastic revelations who turned out to be hoaxes made on purpose, and he was successful at it (revealing how easy such scheme can be done), why can't we generate a formula and try out? Or, at least, generate a formula that helps people check out if something is a hoax, like, step one, check how this "new miracle" has appeared, step two, see which kind of media it belongs to, step three... in fact, this would be a way to protect people against hoaxes.

I know there are lists of hoaxes, but anyone willing to bring their similarities here for study? To discuss these hoaxes? To make a new one to bring attention to the anti-woo cause? Anyone?

[jimmygun]

I tried to get a 'world wide shortage of gravel' thing going, even throwing in the usual conspiracy stuff but so far nothing has come of it.

[Dave Rogers]

Check out the following thread where Unsecured Coins hoaxed the conspiracy theorists:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=113706

and the ensuing thread where one of them started whingeing about it:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=119723

Clearly it only requires a relatively crude fake of a single digital photograph, supported by a superficially plausible narrative, to convince a conspiracy theorist of something he wants to be convinced of.

As for a formula to assess the plausibility of conspiracy theories, Ryan Mackey's "Gravy line", and ensuing discussion, is a reasonable starting point:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=84621

although not a universally supported one.

Dave

[RobRoy]

It helps if you piggy-back on a current conspiracy theory/relevant fear, even one widely debunked. Just change the dates and events with ones of your own making, throw in a couple of "expert" testimonials, and perhaps the titles of some books no matter how unrelated, and you're well on your way.

[Kthulhut Fhtagn]

In regards to UC's hoax to bust out the lack of integrity in the truth movement: I remember listening to a conversation with Bermas here (http://www.gabcast.com/index.php?a=episodes&query=&b=play&id=19973&cast=82752&castPage=&autoplay=true) (episode 15) in which he (Bermas) essentially said it wasn't his fault that he didn't attempt to verify the facts. Apparently he never even contemplated doing so much as asking UC if he was just pulling it out of his ***. :rolleyes:

ETA: To answer the OP. Rather easily; just remember that when you reveal it as a hoax the now embarresed idiots who bought into it will try every ad hominem in the book to turn it back around at you.

[wolves_skeptic]

I think it would be very easy. You just need to exploit a fear. Conspiracy, afterall, has an element of paranoia about it.

I did something similar a while ago on a forum. Everyone was saying comments like, "It's political correctness gone mad" in relation to an obviously false news story about Birmingham (UK) Council banning the word Christmas. Even though there were, at the time, 22 mentions of the word Christmas on Birmingham Councils Home Page alone still people were going on about it and whenever I said it was a lie another piece of crap was pulled out of their arses like the phrase "blackboards" being banned or "hot cross buns" being banned. All utter rubbish and all believed like crazy.

So I set up a dummy account and made a few posts and then started to see just what I could get them believe. Without any questions at all I had them convinced that my "local council" (unnamed) had banned white people from entering the front door of the Civic Centre and instead had to use an "alternative entrance" and that council employees had been "banned" from wearing black clothing in case it offended black people.

The only time I had one person... ONE PERSON... question anything I wrote was when I said that the phrases AM and PM had been banned by the council because they used the letter "M" which would be offensive to Muslims. This one person said, "Are you sure about this?" Everyone else just said, "It's political correctness gone mad."

The formula would be quite easy. Take a fear they have (terrorists / political correctness / change in the way of life / immigrants, etc etc etc), agree with their beliefs and just stretch the truth until it snaps.

Just remember to be completely unfounded and cite no sources. The loons will love you for it.

[Nick227]

I have given considerable thought to conspiracies, and since they seem to be everywhere (people seem to prefer denying the concrete facts and believing in the dubious way to explain things always) from economy to bubble gum, I came to the following conclusion:

There must be a formula.

A what's to do.

A Conspiracy Theory for Dummies.

Since mr. Randi has made up (with the help of other people) some fantastic revelations who turned out to be hoaxes made on purpose, and he was successful at it (revealing how easy such scheme can be done), why can't we generate a formula and try out? Or, at least, generate a formula that helps people check out if something is a hoax, like, step one, check how this "new miracle" has appeared, step two, see which kind of media it belongs to, step three... in fact, this would be a way to protect people against hoaxes.

I know there are lists of hoaxes, but anyone willing to bring their similarities here for study? To discuss these hoaxes? To make a new one to bring attention to the anti-woo cause? Anyone?

Conspiracy theories are memes like a lot of other stuff out there. They fight for bandwidth in the brain and in societies with certain cultural or political stances they tend to have improved chances of propagation. CTs have proven pretty successful because the good ones have built in defences against routine rational attacks - you've haven't heard about it on TV because the media are in on it - this kind of thing. And, for every 10 or 20 CTs one hears there is usually the odd one that does raise eyebrows.

Nick

[Safe-Keeper]

I've considered making a conspiracy theory, just to demonstrate to the truthers how ridiculously easy it'd be to make a believable CT out of coincidences, quotes taken out of context, some ulterior motive slapped on for added spookyness/beliavability, and a couple of good ole lies. It'd be in movie format, built like Loose Change.

I dropped the idea, because I know that if I did so, people would actually buy the CT (as is evidenced by plenty of other hoaxes like the "OMG Im getting RFID'd!!11eleven" one above), and the last thing we need is yet another CT.

[applecorped]

Why don't we just publicly make one up amongst ourselves and see what happens? Could be a great learning experience and teaching tool.

[Arthur Denton]

Yeah, Applecord, I've thought of that. Making, like, a Blog and mailing tons of people would be nice. We would also need videos, of course, and pseudo science language, as someone mentioned. I'm up to it :D

[RobRoy]

Yeah, Applecord, I've thought of that. Making, like, a Blog and mailing tons of people would be nice. We would also need videos, of course, and pseudo science language, as someone mentioned. I'm up to it :D

A blog with multiple contributors, so that credence if given via numbers. I'd participate as well.

[Arthur Denton]

Anyone else up for it? We need a name, a cause, a group. Two already!

[RoboTimbo]

Dihydrogen monoxide has been done, right? Kind of hard to come up with one that twoofers haven't already.

RFID chips are being implanted in shoelaces. Just the tips where you wouldn't notice them. Walmart has already stopped carrying slip-ons.

[Arthur Denton]

We could just re-arrange a conspiracy, maybe, or create a secret society of people who rule the world from an underground location at an undercover base somewhere people can get shot if they walk into. Such as north korea.

[applecorped]

Ideas:

1. New creature siting in some remote place (we'll need fuzzy picture and so-called first hand testimony) This one could be the easiest to get going.

2. Undersea conspiracy - evidence of Atlantis, alien artifacts in the Marianas Trench, The Titantic has a torpedo hole in it, etc.

3. US and Bin Laden still in communication because Bin Laden is a CIA operative (has this been done?)

Any other ideas? After we have a bunch we can debate which one has the best chance of being picked up on and run with.

[Safe-Keeper]

I think the RFID chips made the point nicely, as have all the other hoax conspiracy theories out there that the truthers swallowed hook, line, sinker, fisherman and boat, so another would be... redundant, to say the least.

If you're doing it for **** and giggles, though, more power to you. Make it something harmless, though, 'cause this will be believed by idiots out there.

[OneDollarWilliam]

It seems to me that blaming the government for natural disasters is pretty popular these days. Maybe we could do the opposite say that Hurricane Gustav was so weak because of the RNC. Just an idea, I am happy to help with anything you folks come up with.

[Arthur Denton]

A government conspiracy involving fema and and all that usual bogus thingies could become nice too. And it's usually harmless, as much as Titanic conspiracy is harmless.

[Nursefoxfire]

It seems to me that blaming the government for natural disasters is pretty popular these days. Maybe we could do the opposite say that Hurricane Gustav was so weak because of the RNC. Just an idea, I am happy to help with anything you folks come up with.

Might I recommend a brief reading of State of Fear, that god-awful Michael Crichton book about global warming being a hoax, and extreme ELF-types perpetuating man-made disasters so that the public will buy into their paranoia.

You could probably garner enough pseudo-science from that one book alone to furnish a dozen hoaxes :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Fear

[Arthur Denton]

Umberto Eco's Folcauldt Pendulum also has a ******** of conspiracies on it, almost all of those seem harmless. And since we would like to keep it legal, only a lame conspiracy with a few lamer followers to be debunked after a fixed period of time, I guess the "magick" traditions that they have there would be ok to go with our "conspiracy"

[RobRoy]

What about a fake political candidate?

[Arthur Denton]

What about a fake political candidate?

Or a conspiracy to hide a valid and extremely good political candidate? A neutral person who wanted to run for president and was excluded under command, I don't know, masons or maybe the majestic-12, or both, or a gathering of the world's secret societies?

[RobRoy]

Or a conspiracy to hide a valid and extremely good political candidate? A neutral person who wanted to run for president and was excluded under command, I don't know, masons or maybe the majestic-12, or both, or a gathering of the world's secret societies?

Yes, that's what I was thinking, but I came up with a Bush appointed Federal judge? Now the case is being taken to the Supreme Court or some such?

[Nogbad]

$10 billion dollars to build a huge underground ring in the shape of an ancient Sumerian symbol for evil? 30 years and half the world's physicists just to see if a photon creates mass?

That area of France is redolent of Templar and Illuminati activity.

What is really going on?


Piece of piss actually ;)

[Dr H]

I have given considerable thought to conspiracies, and since they seem to be everywhere (people seem to prefer denying the concrete facts and believing in the dubious way to explain things always) from economy to bubble gum, I came to the following conclusion:

There must be a formula.

A what's to do.

A Conspiracy Theory for Dummies.

Since mr. Randi has made up (with the help of other people) some fantastic revelations who turned out to be hoaxes made on purpose, and he was successful at it (revealing how easy such scheme can be done), why can't we generate a formula and try out? Or, at least, generate a formula that helps people check out if something is a hoax, like, step one, check how this "new miracle" has appeared, step two, see which kind of media it belongs to, step three... in fact, this would be a way to protect people against hoaxes.

I know there are lists of hoaxes, but anyone willing to bring their similarities here for study? To discuss these hoaxes? To make a new one to bring attention to the anti-woo cause? Anyone?

Are you aware that the NSA uses sophisticated software to track conspiracy threads in fora like this one? The CIA has discovered that al Qaeda has been embedding coded messages in conspiracy threads. When you post to a thread like this one they tap your phone, look at your bank accounts, and start taking satellite pictures of your house to see what you're up to.

I read it on the internet, so it must be true!

[PS: Please send this to everyone you know, IMMEDIATELY!]

:)

[dahduh]

Yes, that's what I was thinking, but I came up with a Bush appointed Federal judge? Now the case is being taken to the Supreme Court or some such?

I don't think this has good story potential. Formula for a good conspiracy:

1. Is a really good story, both unexpected but plausible, so people want to listen to it;
2. Has a good 'hook' that cause people to talk about it, i.e. is related to something in daily conversation, creating an opportunity for propagation;
3. Appeals to people's prejudices, so they are motivated to assert the truth of the story;
4. Have defenses against contradiction (Nick227) - so best based on rumors, anonymous sources etc. with no hard evidence;
5. Creates a frisson of fear (wolves_skeptic), inspiring fanaticism in the neurotically inclined.

So how about this.

Question: Why did Bush invade Iraq claiming there were WMDs, but then none were found?
Answer: One was found, but it was so terrifying/easy to make that it was hushed up.

So no we gather bits of 'evidence' to support this. First the anonymous testimony of a defense contractor (maybe someone familiar with military lingo can improve it):

"I was a civilian in a classified division. My job was to deploy the new LPU unit to a forward unit just as the main invasion took place. I was put on a chopper as soon as I hit Iraq and they flew me in ground-level right up to the outskirts of Baghdad in the middle of the night; it was to a unit of just 8 guys who were obviously SpecOp. As soon as I got there the guy in charge - I think he was a captain - got me off and loaded someone who had been injured, and the chopper was off in 30 seconds. I asked what the hell but told me his operator had been shot and I would need to fill in even though I was just a civilian. Anyway, to cut a long story short I commissioned the LPU and then we went in; no support, nothing, just using night scopes and hoping no-one would spot us. The captain obviously knew exactly where he was headed, and after about an hour we broke into a warehouse, not guarded or anything. On the inside it looked like some kind of a lab, and then I used the LPU to get a fix on the target. We found a safe and the captain called in an air-strike close by to cover the noise when we blew it. I had come down the passage and was standing just outside the door when one of the guys opened the safe, and he took out something round about the side of a baseball, or a bit bigger - it was hard to see properly because we were still on the night scopes and everything was noisy from the heat and dust of the explosion. He handed it to the captain and said "difficult to believe this can take out a city." I'll never forget what the captain did. He handed the ball to another soldier and then hit the first one hard, in the stomach. Nobody said anything, and then the captain said "you know why." Then I got **** scared and ducked out and went back down the passage, where I was supposed to be, and then the captain came out. He just like looked at me, and then went back inside. I know what the LPU is for so I've a pretty good guess what was in that ball, and that scares the hell out of me."

Blah blah. Tried to trace the unit a month later for LPU firmware upgrade, like it never existed, blah blah. Nobody knows I know, scared to death. Postscript: author died in mysterious car-crash, identity secret to protect family in case he blabbed.

By the way, I've no idea what an LPU is either but I'm sure one of the crazies will think of something.

Now we need some corroborating evidence. Before the war, Nouri Maliki supplied a lot of the intelligence to the US about the WMDs. So if there were no WMDs and he was just lying, how come he's now prime-minister of Iraq? Answer: he knows there was a WMD, and he knows the US story about nuclear and biological is so much BS; but he doesn't know what it really was. So the Bush administration is keeping him happy by propping up his regime and giving him anything he wants.

And so on. Or is this just too evil? :D

[RoboTimbo]

[PS: Please send this to everyone you know, IMMEDIATELY!]

:)

If I send it to 25 people, will Bill Gates send me a check for $1027 again?

[Arthur Denton]

If I send it to 25 people, will Bill Gates send me a check for $1027 again?

If you reply, send them your account number and password, along with your personal data, so that they can transfer the cash for you.

[Safe-Keeper]

How hard is it to create a hoax conspiracy?If by this you mean, "How hard is it to get people to believe you?", I'm about to find out (http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?p=956459#post956459):D.

The thread has been made on a forum with a significant number of PC-haters and "Muslim takeover" fear mongers. Can't wait to see if they swallow the bait:).

[MaGZ]

The only example of a hoax conspiracy I am aware of is the “Holocaust”. It began as an incredible lie that no one at the time really believed. Then we had the freeing of the prisoners with documented deaths and piles of bodies. Still this was not enough, so we had soap bars and lamp shades and mobile killing machines added to the story. People’s fantasies were incorporated and they became eyewitness accounts. Later we had trials to give the story more validity. Never mine rules of evidence were ignored and those accused of “genocide” were tortured into confessions. Thousand of books and fake scholarship was produced. Decades later “holocaust” monuments and memorials are dedicated in every major city of the world.

It takes a great deal of effort to create and maintain a hoax conspiracy.

[Ladewig]

I don't think this has good story potential. Formula for a good conspiracy:

1. Is a really good story, both unexpected but plausible,

Maybe that is necessary for good conspiracy theories in Cape Town, but in the US of A, plausibility has absolutely nothing to do with the goodness of a conspiracy theory.

Plausibility is not found in the Denver-airport-is-an-alien-base conspiracy theory or the invading UN troops conspiracy theory.1


. . . . . . . . . .
(1) While US counties claim that the barcodes on the backs of road signs are there for accounting reasons (all tangible assets must be numbered and labeled in some way) the [/i]real[/i] reason is that the barcodes are driving instruction for when the UN troops are sent into the US. That's why the barcodes are on the backs of the signs because invading UN troops will drive on the left side of the street.

[Mashuna]

I have given considerable thought to conspiracies, and since they seem to be everywhere (people seem to prefer denying the concrete facts and believing in the dubious way to explain things always) from economy to bubble gum. . .

Consipiracies don't tend to be that widely held, it takes a certain type of mind to wilfully deny evidence of reality. In general, people's beliefs are harmless. It's only in some cases that conspiracy belief is part of a wider belief system, often held by social inadequates. I can't think of a specific example of this type of craven and malicious belief system, but I'm sure you can find evidence of them somewhere on the board.


The only example of a hoax conspiracy I am aware of is the “Holocaust”. It began as an incredible lie that no one at the time really believed. Then we had the freeing of the prisoners with documented deaths and piles of bodies. Still this was not enough, so we had soap bars and lamp shades and mobile killing machines added to the story. People’s fantasies were incorporated and they became eyewitness accounts. Later we had trials to give the story more validity. Never mine rules of evidence were ignored and those accused of “genocide” were tortured into confessions. Thousand of books and fake scholarship was produced. Decades later “holocaust” monuments and memorials are dedicated in every major city of the world.

It takes a great deal of effort to create and maintain a hoax conspiracy.

[Safe-Keeper]

(1) While US counties claim that the barcodes on the backs of road signs are there for accounting reasons (all tangible assets must be numbered and labeled in some way) the [/i]real[/i] reason is that the barcodes are driving instruction for when the UN troops are sent into the US. That's why the barcodes are on the backs of the signs because invading UN troops will drive on the left side of the street.Ingenious. Simply ingenious. If you came up with this, it deserves some sort of nomination.

Oh, and if you follow the link in #29, they swallowed my hoax hook, line and sinker, with the exception of one person who said he needed the permalink before he said anything more. I'll wait for him to expose the hoax, otherwise I'll do it myself:).

[Cavemonster]

The only example of a hoax conspiracy I am aware of is the “Holocaust”. It began as an incredible lie that no one at the time really believed. Then we had the freeing of the prisoners with documented deaths and piles of bodies. Still this was not enough, so we had soap bars and lamp shades and mobile killing machines added to the story. People’s fantasies were incorporated and they became eyewitness accounts. Later we had trials to give the story more validity. Never mine rules of evidence were ignored and those accused of “genocide” were tortured into confessions. Thousand of books and fake scholarship was produced. Decades later “holocaust” monuments and memorials are dedicated in every major city of the world.

It takes a great deal of effort to create and maintain a hoax conspiracy.

Thanks, I'll be sure to congratulate all my dead great uncles and aunts on doing such a convincing job. Schmuck.

[quarky]

I miss crop circles. At least they were artistic hoaxes.

[Earthborn]

How hard is it to create a hoax conspiracy? It is a whole heck of a lot easier than to defuse it, and convince people that it was a hoax all along.

I would argue against creating hoax conspiracies. There is already enough nonsense in the world. Adding even more nonsense won't do anyone any good... except maybe the CIA memetic engineers who are paid per nonsense hoax conspiracy they introduce.

[Safe-Keeper]

I'll tell them it's BS tomorrow. Hopefully they won't spread the news too far:).

[Safe-Keeper]

The only example of a hoax conspiracy I am aware of is the “Lunar Landing”. It began as an incredible lie that no one at the time really believed. Then we had video. Still this was not enough, so we had "astronauts" - their fantasies were incorporated and they became actual moon travelers. Later we had "moon rocks" to give the story more validity. Never mine rules of evidence were ignored and those accused of “skepticism” were exiled to Hawaii. Thousand of books and fake scholarship was produced. Decades later “Lunar Landing” worship happens in every major city of the world.

It takes a great deal of effort to create and maintain a hoax conspiracy.

[Ladewig]

Ingenious. Simply ingenious. If you came up with this, it deserves some sort of nomination.

Not mine. I found it in the mid-1990s in Pennsylvania. Part of the local populace was also alarmed that European countries were performing joint military exercises with the US military on US soil.