Sarah Palin, Embezzler?

[Brainster]

What other interpretation could the anti-Palin forces come up with for this news (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/tim_shipman/blog/2008/09/01/sarah_palin_doubles_john_mccains_fundraising)?

Republicans are voting with their wallets for Sarah Palin. Figures just released show that John McCain has raked in $10million in the two and a bit days since he unveiled his gun toting female running mate. That should bring McCain's total for the month to around $47m--easily a record for the Arizona Senator.

Obviously Sarah used her mad computer skillz to bilk people out of their life savings by emailing people and telling them that their rich uncle must have died in Alaska and could they please donate some processing fees to the McCain campaign and their $18.4 million would soon be on the way.

:D

This thread does have a serious purpose however. There seems to be a growing idea around here that somehow Palin's nomination is in jeopardy. There is zero sign of that at InTrade, which still shows Palin's contract at about 98 cents to earn a buck (less commissions). There has been no sign of a big rebound in Pawlenty Preferred or Romney Class B shares. I have my finger on the pulse of the conservative blogosphere, and there is no sense that Palin's in trouble. In fact, the liberal attacks have largely solidified her support. The big story over the weekend, the Trig Truth, has been revealed to be a big nothing. You don't get a second chance to make a first impression, and the anti-Palin forces made a terrible first impression.

My concerns about Palin are the same as at the beginning of the weekend; that she blunts one of McCain's best argument against Obama (lack of experience on the national scene) and the Troopergate issue which is still hanging out there and which everybody knew was out there. Nothing of the new stuff concerns me, which says the vetting process was pretty good.

[MattusMaximus]

My concerns about Palin are the same as at the beginning of the weekend; that she blunts one of McCain's best argument against Obama (lack of experience on the national scene) and the Troopergate issue which is still hanging out there and which everybody knew was out there. Nothing of the new stuff concerns me, which says the vetting process was pretty good.


http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/774747dc5f01571c1.gif (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=11269)

Seriously though, I do agree that Palin will likely be around for the November elections. I disagree that McCain's people vetted her well though, but that's just my opinion.

[MattusMaximus]

Btw, how much more time does McCain have before he can no longer raise money and must accept public funds?

[Brainster]

Btw, how much more time does McCain have before he can no longer raise money and must accept public funds?

When he officially accepts the nomination, sometime Thursday. This became a big issue in 2004 because Kerry was being nominated about a month before Bush and the Democrats suddenly realized that they'd have to make their federal funds last for three months while Bush's would only be needed for two months. There was a big flap about whether Kerry might officially defer accepting the nomination so he could avert that, but nothing ever came of it.

[chipmunk stew]

When he officially accepts the nomination, sometime Thursday.
Ah! So he picked Palin purely for the last-minute soaking of the stupid fundraising! :D

[Sefarst]

Ah! So he picked Palin purely for the last-minute soaking of the stupid fundraising! :D
Nah, Huckabee would have been the better choice for that.

[MattusMaximus]

Ah! So he picked Palin purely for the last-minute soaking of the stupid fundraising! :D


Well, that thought had occurred to me. What with how McCain's campaign is raking in the cash now, it does seem to be part of a politically calculated move.

However, it won't last. And Obama will outraise/outspend the hell out of McCain in the next couple of months. I think this will be especially obvious in the ground game and GOTV efforts in the days leading up to the election. I think Obama will destroy McCain on this particular point, but that's just me.

[Freddy]

What other interpretation could the anti-Palin forces come up with for this news (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/tim_shipman/blog/2008/09/01/sarah_palin_doubles_john_mccains_fundraising)?



Obviously Sarah used her mad computer skillz to bilk people out of their life savings by emailing people and telling them that their rich uncle must have died in Alaska and could they please donate some processing fees to the McCain campaign and their $18.4 million would soon be on the way.

:D

This thread does have a serious purpose however. There seems to be a growing idea around here that somehow Palin's nomination is in jeopardy. There is zero sign of that at InTrade, which still shows Palin's contract at about 98 cents to earn a buck (less commissions). There has been no sign of a big rebound in Pawlenty Preferred or Romney Class B shares. I have my finger on the pulse of the conservative blogosphere, and there is no sense that Palin's in trouble. In fact, the liberal attacks have largely solidified her support. The big story over the weekend, the Trig Truth, has been revealed to be a big nothing. You don't get a second chance to make a first impression, and the anti-Palin forces made a terrible first impression.

My concerns about Palin are the same as at the beginning of the weekend; that she blunts one of McCain's best argument against Obama (lack of experience on the national scene) and the Troopergate issue which is still hanging out there and which everybody knew was out there. Nothing of the new stuff concerns me, which says the vetting process was pretty good.

About the trooper:

This is guy who was investigated by his department and was found to have done all of the following:

1) Tased his 10 year old stepson (Don't tase me, bro - sorry, couldn't resist)

2) Threatened to kill his father in law (Palin's father) if he helped her get a divorce lawyer

3) Illegally shot and killed a moose

And

4) Drank in his patrol car.

For some reason, no one is mentioning that. If I were governor, I'd be pushing for that guy to be fired immediately even if I had no personal connection to him. There's no way that guy should have a gun and a badge. This is such a non-story it's laughable. Once these facts about the trooper get reported on, the "scandal" will be dead.

[MattusMaximus]

When he officially accepts the nomination, sometime Thursday. This became a big issue in 2004 because Kerry was being nominated about a month before Bush and the Democrats suddenly realized that they'd have to make their federal funds last for three months while Bush's would only be needed for two months. There was a big flap about whether Kerry might officially defer accepting the nomination so he could avert that, but nothing ever came of it.


Yet another screwup on the part of the Kerry campaign. If Kerry had half the appeal or balls that Obama has, he'd have won in 2004.

Okay, I'm done living in the past...

[geni]

This thread does have a serious purpose however. There seems to be a growing idea around here that somehow Palin's nomination is in jeopardy.

Not yet folding would be very damageing so the alturnative would have to be very bad indeed. The problem arrises if a trend develops.


There is zero sign of that at InTrade


Yeah the value of the prediction markets has probably been oversold a bit.

[BenBurch]

Thank you for reminding me to go donate to Obama! So I went to do so and found that he was asking people instead to donate to hurricane relief... So I gave to that what I would have given to him.

I'll send HIM money next week.

[MattusMaximus]

Thank you for reminding me to go donate to Obama! So I went to do so and found that he was asking people instead to donate to hurricane relief... So I gave to that what I would have given to him.

I'll send HIM money next week.


Ditto.

[chipmunk stew]

For some reason, no one is mentioning that.
Except all the people who are.

Other than that, I agree with you. (Assuming these facts about the trooper pan out, of course.)

[Freddy]

Fair enough. Some people are talking about it. Otherwise, I wouldn't have read about it. But I'm watching CNN right now and no one on Larry King seems to think it's relevant. I just can't believe that the fact that the trooper so richly deserved to be fired (you could argue it's a matter of public safety that he be fired) wouldn't be one of the first things mentioned when this story is brought up. It's really the fault of the people who are supposed to be on there defending her. They're dropping the ball, big time.

[BenBurch]

Freddy, its not the firing of the trooper that is controversial. It is the firing of the state officer who disagreed with the firing.

[Freddy]

Freddy, its not the firing of the trooper that is controversial. It is the firing of the state officer who disagreed with the firing.

I'm aware of that, but I'd also fire anyone who refused to fire that jerk trooper, especially since Palin was within her power to fire this guy for almost any reason. It certainly doesn't seem as if she fired him merely because this trooper was in a custody battle with her sister. That would be abuse of power. It's also why the trooper's documented misconduct is not only relevant but central to this story. The trooper was a public nuisance, not just a personal enemy of Sarah Palin. What kind of person refuses to dismiss an law enforcement officer who is found, after investigation, to have done all of the things mentioned above? And I think most casual observers have the same reaction I did when I learned a bit about him.

And apparently there were other deficiencies in this state officer's performance. And Palin offered the guy a different job she thought he'd be more suited for.

This just doesn't have the ring of abuse of power. It sounds more like cleaning house of a corrupt power abusing law enforcement officer. The personal connection gives it the appearance of a possible scandal, but I'll be very shocked if this harms Palin. Even a novice PR guy would easily be able to make Palin look like the good guy here, because it really looks like she is.

[MattusMaximus]

Freddy, its not the firing of the trooper that is controversial. It is the firing of the state officer who disagreed with the firing.


Precisely. If even half the things about that state trooper are true, then you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who wouldn't want to take him out behind the woodshed.

But that is beside the point. The issue at hand is whether or not Palin abused her position as governor for personal reasons.

It is a legitimate question. Ever seen "Clear and Present Danger"?

[chipmunk stew]

I'm aware of that, but I'd also fire anyone who refused to fire that jerk trooper. The trooper was a public nuisance. What kind of person refuses to dismiss an law enforcement officer who is found, after investigation, to have done all of the things mentioned above? And I think most casual observers have the same reaction I did when I learned a bit about him.

And apparently there were other deficiencies in this state officer's performance. And Palin offered the guy a different job she thought he'd be more suited for.

This just doesn't have the ring of abuse of power. It sounds more like cleaning house of a corrupt power abusing law enforcement officer. The personal connection gives it the appearance of a possible scandal, but I'll be very shocked if this harms Palin. Even a novice PR guy would easily be able to make Palin look like the good guy here, because it really looks like she is.
Yup. That's how it will play, no matter what the facts end up being.

There are more questionable firings, though, that will be harder for her to 'splain.

[MattusMaximus]

Yup. That's how it will play, no matter what the facts end up being.

There are more questionable firings, though, that will be harder for her to 'splain.


There are more firings? I hadn't heard about this... please provide references.

[Freddy]

There are more firings? I hadn't heard about this... please provide references.

Yeah, I'd like to know about that too.

[Brainster]

However, it won't last. And Obama will outraise/outspend the hell out of McCain in the next couple of months.

The first $42 million each month is just staying even. And Obama has to work for that money; fundraisers take time that could be spent campaigning. Obama opted out of the federal matching funds on the basis that he could raise $100 million a month; so far he has not come close to that.

And that's before we talk about the huge advantage that the RNC has, and the bloated campaign staff that Obama will have to start gutting pretty soon before it bleeds him dry. I read somewhere that he had over 100 paid staffers in Texas; I assume that's long gone.

[BenBurch]

The first $42 million each month is just staying even. And Obama has to work for that money; fundraisers take time that could be spent campaigning. Obama opted out of the federal matching funds on the basis that he could raise $100 million a month; so far he has not come close to that.

And that's before we talk about the huge advantage that the RNC has, and the bloated campaign staff that Obama will have to start gutting pretty soon before it bleeds him dry. I read somewhere that he had over 100 paid staffers in Texas; I assume that's long gone.

I won't be much work. I am giving like I have never given before to a presidential candidate, and so are all of my friends.

[gdnp]

Precisely. If even half the things about that state trooper are true, then you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who wouldn't want to take him out behind the woodshed.

But that is beside the point. The issue at hand is whether or not Palin abused her position as governor for personal reasons.
[/I]?

Would you want a judge to preside of the trial and sentencing of his or her brother in law? There is an inherent conflict of interest here. In such cases the official should recuse him or herself to avoid any appearance of impropriety.

I'm hoping she sticks around, since she is looking more and more like an albatross.

[MattusMaximus]

The first $42 million each month is just staying even. And Obama has to work for that money; fundraisers take time that could be spent campaigning. Obama opted out of the federal matching funds on the basis that he could raise $100 million a month; so far he has not come close to that.

And that's before we talk about the huge advantage that the RNC has, and the bloated campaign staff that Obama will have to start gutting pretty soon before it bleeds him dry. I read somewhere that he had over 100 paid staffers in Texas; I assume that's long gone.


You seem to be forgetting a little something called the "Internet", which Obama has used like no one ever before to raise money. He has, last I checked, at least 2 million individual donors; and that was before the DNC in Denver.

As for the supposed "advantage" the RNC has, the last numbers I saw from July put the RNC and DNC as evenly matched (with about $95 million each). Doesn't seem like much of an advantage to me.

What are your sources for all these claims?

[Freddy]

Precisely. If even half the things about that state trooper are true, then you'll be hard pressed to find anyone who wouldn't want to take him out behind the woodshed.

But that is beside the point. The issue at hand is whether or not Palin abused her position as governor for personal reasons.

It is a legitimate question. Ever seen "Clear and Present Danger"?

I edited my previous post to address this, but it was after you posted. The reason this has the appearance of impropriety is that it looks like Palin just went after the trooper because of the custody battle with her sister. But if these things about the trooper are true, then it no longer looks like that's why she wanted him fired. And if that isn't why she wanted him fired, if she wanted him fired because he clearly and objectively deserved to be fired, then there's no abuse of power. Well, I'm not familiar with Alaska Law, so it may still be a technical violation of some rule, but it isn't going to generate outrage from the public, nor will it hurt her reformer image. If it turns out she has lied, that will hurt her. But I don't see why she would lie, given that it looks like she had every right, and very good reason, to demand that this trooped be fired.

[Puppycow]

This thread does have a serious purpose however. There seems to be a growing idea around here that somehow Palin's nomination is in jeopardy.

Really? I wonder who suggested that? The die has been cast, so to speak.
McCain made his bed and now he has to sleep in it. You don't get a mulligan after you go public with your pick, not without a heavy price anyway.

Personally my favorite angle of attack (so far) is on this Bridge to Nowhere business. See the thread on it. When Palin was running for governor she ran on a pro-bridge platform, now she wants to take credit for killing it.

[Brainster]

You seem to be forgetting a little something called the "Internet", which Obama has used like no one ever before to raise money. He has, last I checked, at least 2 million individual donors; and that was before the DNC in Denver.

As for the supposed "advantage" the RNC has, the last numbers I saw from July put the RNC and DNC as evenly matched (with about $95 million each). Doesn't seem like much of an advantage to me.

What are your sources for all these claims?

Obama raised roughly $51 million in July and $52 million in June (http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1633725920080816).

McCain will get $84 million in Federal funds, that's well-established. And the RNC has well more money on hand (http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/08/19/the-2008-money-race-stil-closer-than-you-think.aspx):

In this case, the totals are nearly identical: the Republicans finished July with $96 million in the bank ($75 million for the RNC, $21 million for McCain) versus $94.3 million for the Democrats ($25.8 million for the DNC, $65.8 million for Obama). Bottom line: neither candidate is struggling financially.

And Obama's money chase takes him away from the campaign trail as noted here:

Secondly, for the final two months of the campaign, McCain will be able to stop detouring from the trail to attend private fundraisers, relying instead on $42 million a month in public funds plus an estimated $130 million from the RNC to see him through. In other words, McCain will have far more money after Sept. 4 than he's ever had before--and he won't have to work for it. Obama, meanwhile, will still have to step off the stump for glitzy fundraisers like this week's $7.8-million bashes in San Francisco if he hopes to continue raising $50 million a month--which is what he'll need to keep up.

[gdnp]

Well, the RNC has some senate and house seats they also need to defend.

I am also interested in seeing how many RNC fundraisers McCain attends.

I think the money is overstated in terms of advertising. I think people get saturated. Grass roots get out the vote may be the key. For this the email and cell phone info Obama has to make sure those newly registered young people actually show up on election day will be invaluable.

You think they threw out all those addresses in the "sign up and be the first to find out Obama's running mate" gimick?

[SezMe]

Obviously Sarah used her mad computer skillz to bilk people out of their life savings by emailing people and telling them that their rich uncle must have died in Alaska and could they please donate some processing fees to the McCain campaign and their $18.4 million would soon be on the way.

:D
I get the green smilie but I thought I'd respond seriously anyway.

From the perspective of the Republican "base" this was an excellent choice. Palin hews to the "values voters" extremely well. In fact, far more so than McCain...which is probably a major component of why he picked her. So all those christian conservatives who have been holding back out of uncertainty about McCain will find in this pick a reason to step up. I would have been quite surprised if his fund raising had not shown a major uptick after the announcement.

[ProbeX]

Nothing of the new stuff concerns me, which says the vetting process was pretty good.

Whaa? It has only been a few days since Palin was introduced to the public and you're prepared to put total faith in a real or imagined vetting process?

Though I don't agree with you much, you've posted some reasonably intelligent posts here. So I'm chalking this statement up to being a statistical outlier.

[ProbeX]

I'm hoping she sticks around, since she is looking more and more like an albatross.

Word. Pappy offered a terrific gift to the Democratic Party in celebration of its amazing, historical convention. And now that gift just keeps giving and giving and giving.

[PixyMisa]

Word. Pappy offered a terrific gift to the Democratic Party in celebration of its amazing, historical convention. And now that gift just keeps giving and giving and giving.
You mean by that, the Republican voters love her and she drives the Democrats insane?

Because that's what I'm seeing.

[Freddy]

Whaa? It has only been a few days since Palin was introduced to the public and you're prepared to put total faith in a real or imagined vetting process?

Though I don't agree with you much, you've posted some reasonably intelligent posts here. So I'm chalking this statement up to being a statistical outlier.

More and more stuff keeps coming out, but quantity does not equal quality. So far nothing even remotely damaging. If every "scandal" that breaks is as weak as the ones we've seen, it's just going to look like she's being picked on unfairly. I see no reason not to think she was vetted just fine, and that the McCain camp knows that none of this stuff is going to be damaging. Palin gets to be the victim, but without ever having to complain, because the talking heads are so over the top it's blatantly obvious to everyone.

Did you see Larry King tonight? Ed Shultz didn't even attempt to conceal his glee at the pregnancy of an unwed 17 year old he's never met. I couldn't believe it. How stupid politically, not to mention inhuman. And he wasn't the only one with that attitude even in that one segment of a single show. I've seen the same thing from other lefty takling heads on other shows as well. How do you think that's going to play with the average voter? No male candidate would ever be subjected to the criticisms they were slinging, a fact that won't be lost on most people.

I'm not saying this will hurt Obama, because his reaction was excellent. If there is a backlash, he certainly doesn't deserve it. But it certainly isn't going to hurt Palin. And it may disgust Hillary supporters to the point that they stay home (I don't see many of them voting for McCain). The Republican base was already excited, and now they're furious, and they're rallying around Palin. Turnout wins elections, and the base was very lukewarm before the Palin pick.

Inexperience is the only political downside I've seen so far that has anything to it, which means that Palin will stand or fall based on her public appearances and the debate. Which is as it should be.

[chipmunk stew]

There are more firings? I hadn't heard about this... please provide references.
This was back when she was mayor, in 1997. She fired the Wasilla city librarian and police chief with a letter stating, "I do not feel I have your full support in my efforts to govern the city of Wasilla. Therefore I intend to terminate your employment ..."

The next day, she reinstated the librarian (apparently satisfied that the librarian would toe the line) but not police chief Irl Stambaugh. When pressed to explain how the police chief had not supported her, she said only, "'You know in your heart when someone is supportive of you.''

Both the librarian and Stambaugh had publicly supported the incumbent mayor in the mayoral campaign.

[source (http://www.adn.com/sarahpalin/story/510219.html)]

[Dr Adequate]

You mean by that, the Republican voters love her and she drives the Democrats insane?

Because that's what I'm seeing. Then try removing the rose-tinted spectacles.

[Lothian]

You mean by that, the Republican voters love her and she drives the Democrats insane?

Because that's what I'm seeing.In the UK we find politicians trying to win the oppositions voters over to their side. They rarely focus on the ones they already have.

An interesting choice if she really only appeals to her current supporters.

[gdnp]

You mean by that, the Republican voters love her and she drives the Democrats insane?

Because that's what I'm seeing.

I agree with Lothian. McCain needs to appeal to Democrats and independents, so what really matters is how she appeals to those groups.

Ignoring all the scandals, the lack of experience remains a significant problem for the Republicans that will not go away, especially the lack of any national or foreign policy experience.

[Foolmewunz]

It's been said, but the move to nominate Pallin was to secure the traditional "Family Christian Values" voters.

McCain does not have to appeal to liberals. He has to (and does) appeal to moderates and conservatives, but he didn't have the organized fundies behind him. And Huckleberry would've been a huge limelight devouring liability.

It's not the contributions... It's the car pools and GOTV move. The Southern Strategy requires mobilization of support, and that's why it's worked. Republican, and particularly ultra-conservative Republican state level groups have just done a better job of it in most Federal elections.

As such, it looks like a depressingly (to a liberal like myself) good move if they weather the huge (Ho Hum!) scandals in her past.

My goodness, a pregnant unmarried daughter? Why that's just plain impossible. That's laughable. Why that's as silly as someone saying, for instance, that Dick Cheney would have a lesbian (gasp!!) daughter. Imagine how that would've destroyed Dubya's campaign.

The fundies just viewed Cheney's daughter as "his cross to bear". No doubt, they'll take the same tack with Pallin. (Somewhere there's a good Pallin Pun in there.... something about a (polar) bear to cross....)

[Puppycow]

There seems to be a growing idea around here that somehow Palin's nomination is in jeopardy. There is zero sign of that at InTrade, which still shows Palin's contract at about 98 cents to earn a buck (less commissions).

How about now? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/prediction-market-starts_n_123136.html) :D

It would be a political disaster if she withdrew, which is why, barring something earthshattering, I don't think she will. But some punters are starting to think so.

How would it be done I wonder? Would she "suddenly develop some new medical condition"? What excuse could they come up with that is not a political disaster?

[BenBurch]

How about now? (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/02/prediction-market-starts_n_123136.html) :D

It would be a political disaster if she withdrew, which is why, barring something earthshattering, I don't think she will. But some punters are starting to think so.

How would it be done I wonder? Would she "suddenly develop some new medical condition"? What excuse could they come up with that is not a political disaster?

If I believed in a god, I would be PRAYING that they move ahead and place her name in nomination! Because the REAL damage to their ticket is approving her.

[boloboffin]

She won't bail, not in the next three days. That's my snap judgment. She'll have to be kicked off the ticket by McCain. McCain will not do that, not in the next three days.

After that, she'll be on the ballots in 50 states. She's in for the duration.

[BenBurch]

She won't bail, not in the next three days. That's my snap judgment. She'll have to be kicked off the ticket by McCain. McCain will not do that, not in the next three days.

After that, she'll be on the ballots in 50 states. She's in for the duration.

Hope you're right!

[Brainster]

Then try removing the rose-tinted spectacles.

Actually Pixy's statement is 100% correct. Republicans love her, and she's driven the Democrats insane. Look at BB's recent posts for evidence of the latter.

[BenBurch]

Actually Pixy's statement is 100% correct. Republicans love her, and she's driven the Democrats insane. Look at BB's recent posts for evidence of the latter.

Ha!

You mistake me being bothered by my sadistic thrill at attacking SUCH a soft target! I delight at ridiculing you repubs and sometimes you make it all so easy!

Actually, I am saving the best stuff for when you DO approve her, and about 10 days before the election, but repeating the digs of others here has been a lot of fun, with you especially.

[jberryhill]

You mistake me being bothered by my sadistic thrill at attacking SUCH a soft target!

In other forums, it appears to be a common misread of the reaction of Democratic voters.

I'm a solid D, and I'm thrilled with the Palin pick. I haven't had this much fun since Cheney shot that guy in the face.

A secessionist sympathizer? Oh please keep her on the ticket.

The "crazy preacher" routine hasn't even started yet, but I'm surprised that the GOP hasn't rolled out "speaking in tongues" as a foreign policy qualification.

[BenBurch]

In other forums, it appears to be a common misread of the reaction of Democratic voters.

I'm a solid D, and I'm thrilled with the Palin pick. I haven't had this much fun since Cheney shot that guy in the face.

A secessionist sympathizer? Oh please keep her on the ticket.

The "crazy preacher" routine hasn't even started yet, but I'm surprised that the GOP hasn't rolled out "speaking in tongues" as a foreign policy qualification.

And this time, nobody got shot! (I had a hard time being too gleeful about that one as somebody was actually hurt.)

[MattusMaximus]

You mean by that, the Republican voters love her and she drives the Democrats insane?

Because that's what I'm seeing.


I know plenty of Independents and others who were on the fence who now think McCain has totally lost their votes. It's out there and it's real.

In addition, I've read at least two stories which seem to indicate that this decision has actually driven away more women from McCain than it has attracted.

If true, that's bad news for McCain.

[Dr Adequate]

Actually Pixy's statement is 100% correct. Republicans love her, and she's driven the Democrats insane. Look at BB's recent posts for evidence of the latter. Ah, but is BenBurch a sufficiently large or sufficiently random sample to justify your figure of 100%?

As for these thrilled Republicans, I'm wondering, do you know of any who were saying that she'd be the best pick before McCain picked her? I can see why they're obliged to say so after the fact.

[Brainster]

Ah, but is BenBurch a sufficiently large or sufficiently random sample to justify your figure of 100%?

As for these thrilled Republicans, I'm wondering, do you know of any who were saying that she'd be the best pick before McCain picked her? I can see why they're obliged to say so after the fact.

I had her #2 on my prediction list (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=117919), with Portman at #1. In fact, despite the supposed shocking nature of the pick, she was mentioned on more ballots in the VP nomination contest thread than Biden was. While I liked Portman and I was willing to accept Pawlenty or Romney, I was nervous that none represented a pick that could take advantage of the obvious problem that Obama faces with women after defeating their candidate.

I said that Pixy was 100% right, but I should have summarized it better: Palin is driving the Democrats insane. Ben's just beaten the traffic.

:D

[Puppycow]

Doesn't it worry you that McCain has been losing ground in the polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html) since the Palin announcement? A week ago the margin was less than 2%, now it's more than 6%.

[gdnp]

I said that Pixy was 100% right, but I should have summarized it better: Palin is driving the Democrats insane. Ben's just beaten the traffic.

:D

Insane with glee.

I'm going out on a limb and stating that I don't think she will make it to the election. I'm crossing my fingers that she does, though. I can't think of a worse choice for McCain.

Well, excluding Ron Paul

[BenBurch]

Insane with glee.

I'm going out on a limb and stating that I don't think she will make it to the election. I'm crossing my fingers that she does, though. I can't think of a worse choice for McCain.

Well, excluding Ron Paul

Amen. I think we should have held fire until after the convention. Now she might be gone by tomorrow I am hearing.

[Dr Adequate]

I was nervous that none represented a pick that could take advantage of the obvious problem that Obama faces with women after defeating their candidate. Are you hoping to court disgruntled Hillaristas with a VP candidate who apparently believes that every zygote is sacred?

I'm not sure that that's going to work out.

[SezMe]

I'm going out on a limb and stating that I don't think she will make it to the election. I'm crossing my fingers that she does, though. I can't think of a worse choice for McCain.
I think she's in it for sure. Imagine the damage that will be done if Palin gets thrown under the bus (gawd, I hate that phrase). No matter how it happens, the christian right will see it as McCain dumping her for some guy (Problem #1) who is not as conservative (Problem #2). The howling would be deafening.

No, McCain's made his pick and I think he's stuck with it....but maybe "stuck" is the wrong word. If she proves to be an effective campaigner and they can get the focus back on Obama/Biden then it may have proven to be a good political move. I'm not gleeful at all about Palin. It's way too early to know how this will play out.

[Puppycow]

I think she's in it for sure. Imagine the damage that will be done if Palin gets thrown under the bus (gawd, I hate that phrase). No matter how it happens, the christian right will see it as McCain dumping her for some guy (Problem #1) who is not as conservative (Problem #2). The howling would be deafening.

No, McCain's made his pick and I think he's stuck with it....but maybe "stuck" is the wrong word. If she proves to be an effective campaigner and they can get the focus back on Obama/Biden then it may have proven to be a good political move. I'm not gleeful at all about Palin. It's way too early to know how this will play out.

You are correct. It's far too early to say one way or the other whether she will be a good, neutral or bad choice. Whatever happens, if she manages to hold her own against Biden in a debate, she will probably be at least neutral. Because since Biden has much more experience, he has to win the debate to meet expectations, whereas is she can manage a draw, she will have exceeded expectations. That's tough for Biden. And he can't afford to come off as too aggressive or condescending either.

[MattusMaximus]

Are you hoping to court disgruntled Hillaristas with a VP candidate who apparently believes that every zygote is sacred?

I'm not sure that that's going to work out.


According to this story from Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/video/109969/More-Clintonites-Backing-Obama.aspx), it certainly isn't working out that way. Looks like McCain's strategy has backfired on him - oops :rolleyes:

[gdnp]

I think she's in it for sure. Imagine the damage that will be done if Palin gets thrown under the bus (gawd, I hate that phrase). No matter how it happens, the christian right will see it as McCain dumping her for some guy (Problem #1) who is not as conservative (Problem #2). The howling would be deafening.

No, McCain's made his pick and I think he's stuck with it....but maybe "stuck" is the wrong word. If she proves to be an effective campaigner and they can get the focus back on Obama/Biden then it may have proven to be a good political move. I'm not gleeful at all about Palin. It's way too early to know how this will play out.

If they decide to dump her she will drop out for "personal reasons", claiming it was entirely her choice and no one pressured her to leave. She will then excoriate the liberal press for viciously subjecting her innocent children to brutal attacks. The religious right will then applaud her for nobly placing her family ahead of her political ambitions. McCain will then replace her with a white male.

[SezMe]

Of course she will drop out for "personal reasons". But nobody with a couple of brain cells to rub together will believe it. The media feeding frenzy would be a sight to behold.

The rest of your scenario sounds likely. But I still maintain she's in it for the long haul.

[MattusMaximus]

According to this story from Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/video/109969/More-Clintonites-Backing-Obama.aspx), it certainly isn't working out that way. Looks like McCain's strategy has backfired on him - oops :rolleyes:


Here's some more evidence from Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/109975/Obama-Gains-Overall-McCain-Among-GOP-Women.aspx) that suggests that McCain is actually losing ground with Independent and Democratic women.

Very bad news for McCain.

[BenBurch]

Here's some more evidence from Gallup (http://www.gallup.com/poll/109975/Obama-Gains-Overall-McCain-Among-GOP-Women.aspx) that suggests that McCain is actually losing ground with Independent and Democratic women.

Very bad news for McCain.

And it looks like (very preliminarily) that the "convention bounce" for McCain has been nullified in advance. He may not get any measurable bounce other than the normal signal noise in the daily tracking polls.

He has "screwed the pooch."

[corplinx]

And it looks like (very preliminarily) that the "convention bounce" for McCain has been nullified in advance. He may not get any measurable bounce other than the normal signal noise in the daily tracking polls.

He has "screwed the pooch."

You guys did a good job over the weekend of smearing the bejesus out of the woman after the press switched stories to Gustav. I have to applaud the apparently successful effort to frame this candidate. It worked. I may not agree with it, but I have to recognize that this uncoordinated effort by the NYT, the Huff Post, and hundreds of bloggers worked. Its like a decentralized swift boating.

[Whiplash]

Freddy, its not the firing of the trooper that is controversial. It is the firing of the state officer who disagreed with the firing.

The fact that he was refusing to fire that pathetic excuse for a human being makes him just as bad. You guys just keep reaching and reaching and reaching. It's just sad to watch.

[gdnp]

The fact that he was refusing to fire that pathetic excuse for a human being makes him just as bad. You guys just keep reaching and reaching and reaching. It's just sad to watch.

Pathetic excuse for a human being? Please tell me you are not passing judgment on a person you have never met based on unsubstantiated rumors posted on the internet?

And even if I accept your assertion that he is just as bad, he is not running for VP

[BenBurch]

The fact that he was refusing to fire that pathetic excuse for a human being makes him just as bad. You guys just keep reaching and reaching and reaching. It's just sad to watch.

As in all such matters, the allegations need to be proven before a personnel decision can be reached, and it appears that the evidence just did not stand up to scrutiny. Would you want all hiring and firing decisions to be made on the say-so of a top politico? We used to call that system "patronage" and it is generally regarded as evil now.

Do you really want a return to Boss Tweed or to the Chicago Machine?