In Theory, could Randi's Challenge be beaten by a trick

[Rodibidably]

Keep in mind, this is theoretical.

Could Derren Brown, Penn, Teller, Banachek, etc do a good enough job of cold reading, or some other trick that Randi could not figure out how to make a protocol to stop, and take Randi's million?

I'm not saying Randi would be fooled and think they were using some power, but do you think somebody could tell Randi it's here is what I'm going to do (not telling Randi how they would do it, just what they would appear to be doing) where Randi could not spot the trick and determine a way to prevent the person from using it.

It does not even have to be cold reading (although that's the first thing that comes to my mind), it could be any trick or illusion, where the person doing it, would be able to "beat" Randi.

What are your thoughts, could it be done (following the JREF protocols), what do you think would be the easiest way (my guess is some form of cold reading), and can you think of a particular magician (or anybody else, doesn't have to be a magician) that could pull it of?

[Maus]

I think this question is a trick.

In order to beat the challenge, it would have to be a trick because the point of the challenge is to prove something can happen, that can't.

-Maus

[Lanzy]

It would have to be a really really really good trick. A trick that no one has ever seen before and a trick that a master magician could never figure out. In reality probably not. Have you read some of the protocols that have been written here? They are really tight.

[Rodibidably]

I think this question is a trick.

In order to beat the challenge, it would have to be a trick because the point of the challenge is to prove something can happen, that can't.

If I was to claim that I am a "psychic", and can tell you great detail about a subject without having met them, and I then use cold reading techniques to do this, how is Randi going to PROVE it was cold reading vs an angel sitting on my shoulder telling me.

I know that Randi has had more than one "psychic" apply for the challenge over the years, and he would love to test Sylvia Brown, who claims to be a "psychic".

In Sylvia's case, she is a very BAD cold reader, but if you took a GREAT cold reader (Derren Brown or Banachek for example), they could accomplish exactly what Sylvia Brown would claim she can do, the only difference is they say up front it's a trick.

What I'm asking is, is there a trick good enough, or a cold reader good enough, to beat Randi's challenge?

[Rodibidably]

It would have to be a really really really good trick. A trick that no one has ever seen before and a trick that a master magician could never figure out. In reality probably not. Have you read some of the protocols that have been written here? They are really tight.
I'm not saying it would be easy.
In fact, I'm not sure it could be done, and for it to be done, I'd except there was some amount of "luck" involved.

And yes I have read a number of the protocols, and they are really tight, but we're talking still talking in the realm of possibly due to random chance.

If something is set up that random chance says only 1 in 1000 can pass, there is still a chance that you'll get that 1.

And if you're a good enough cold reader (or whatever) I'd expect you could drop those odds significantly in your favor (maybe not to 50/50, but improved for sure).

[Greyman]

More likely than not, no. The protocol for a psychic would probably be set up such that the predictions would be made without speaking to the individual involved, to rule out cold reading.

[Maus]

What I'm asking is, is there a trick good enough, or a cold reader good enough, to beat Randi's challenge?

I think it has been scientifically proven that this is not possible.

-Maus

[Rodibidably]

More likely than not, no. The protocol for a psychic would probably be set up such that the predictions would be made without speaking to the individual involved, to rule out cold reading.
Reading through the protocols one "psychic" claimed that they got vibrations or something from hearing the person's voice, and it was added to the protocol to allow each person to read some line from a poem.

If somebody was to moan and bitch over every little detail for long enough, and get the JREF to agree to as many things as they could (such as in this case), I'd expect that they could increase their odds enough to make it worth giving it a shot.

Of course we'd have to be talking about a very skilled and very unscrupulous person, but I don't think there should be too much difficulty in finding one of those.

For cold reading, even if a person doesn't mean to, they usually have a hard time not giving off some clues about themselves (body language, etc). That along with a voice sample, a lot of skill, and a bit of luck might theoretically be enough to give somebody the prize.

[Rodibidably]

I think it has been scientifically proven that this is not possible.
I know it would be damn hard to do.

But part of me keeps thinking of the idea of "infinite monkeys with infinite typewriters would eventually write out all the works of Shakespeare".

Even if the odds are 1 in 10,000, if you have enough entries, somebody could eventually get lucky, right?

And somebody who's REALLY skilled, can get those odds at least some what more in their favor through the use of tricks of some sort.

And Randi may be good, but no matter how good you are there is almost certainly always somebody better than you at your job (unless you're Tiger Woods of course).

I'm not implying that Teller (or whoever) could walk into the JREF tomorrow and walk out with the check, but theoretically it seems that there has to at least be some chance that Randi could miss something, or somebody could get a protocol in their favor in such a way, that they could beat him.

[Loss Leader]

I think it would be great to try. Perhaps as an event at the next TAM, Penn could attempt to perform an illusion undetected after a negotiated protocol with Randi.

[Rodibidably]

I think it would be great to try. Perhaps as an event at the next TAM, Penn could attempt to perform an illusion undetected after a negotiated protocol with Randi.
Imagine the "street cred" for any magician who could completely fool Randi.

Penn and Teller have to at least have THOUGHT about trying something, right? I mean imagine Penn being able to go up to Lance Burton and say "I fooled Randi, top that bitch", how could Penn not at least dream of that.

[Czarcasm]

If you make a claim that you will accomplish your goal by supernatural means, and sign a contract that states this, then use magician's tricks instead, wouldn't this be considered fraud?

[Rodibidably]

If you make a claim that you will accomplish your goal by supernatural means, and sign a contract that states this, then use magician's tricks instead, wouldn't this be considered fraud?
Only if Randi can prove how you accomplished it.

[Rodibidably]

If you make a claim that you will accomplish your goal by supernatural means, and sign a contract that states this, then use magician's tricks instead, wouldn't this be considered fraud?
Think about it this way. Randi WANTS Sylvia Brown to take the test.

Anybody who's looked into Sylvia Brown at ALL, knows she has no "real" powers, she uses cold reading, and she is not even good at it.

HOWEVER, if she were to take the test, obviously she'd CLAIM she was using powers.

Now imagine somebody who's actually good at what Sylvia does. They may know they are full of ****, but if they can pull off the cold reading successfully, it would be up to Randi to prove it was cold reading.

[Pantaz]

Don't forget, you have to succesfully prove your claim TWICE -- the preliminary test and the final test.

[Rodibidably]

Don't forget, you have to succesfully prove your claim TWICE -- the preliminary test and the final test.
I'm not saying it would be easy. In fact, I'm not certain anybody could do it, but I do think there is at least a chance that somebody could be good enough at cold reading, or come up with some trick, and along with getting a bit "lucky" perhaps, could beat the challenge.

I think the more times they have to repeat the less likely it becomes, but if you only have to do it twice, it doesn't seem impossible to me.

[jimtron]

Not likely, but I don't see why this isn't theoretically possible (to fool Randi and/or JREF).

eta: I read the OP again, and I'm confused. So Randi would know it was bogus? In that case the applicant wouldn't be eligible for the MDC, I don't think. Are you saying, can Randi be shown an effect that he can't figure out? I would think so. Or am I not getting the question...

[Rodibidably]

I think you're reading too much into the line: I'm not saying Randi would be fooled and think they were using some power

Basically, le'ts sat the person was a "psychic", so naturally they would claim psychic powers. Or oif their trick was say levitation, they might claim magnetism or some other such BS.

Now even if they somehow manage to win the challenge, I doubt Randi (or most of us on the forums) would automatically say "well I guess everything we know is wrong, psychics (or levitation, etc) do exists".

Because they won the challenge, he would have to write them a check, but I'm pretty certain, he would spend the next few days/weeeks/months/whatever calling every magician he knows to try to figure out how the hell it was done.

Now let's for a second say it was Penn or Teller who did it. He's KNOW for a 100% certainty it was a trick (because it's Penn and Teller), but if they CLAIM it's not a trick, and he can't spot the trick, he would obviously have to pay, based on the rules (at least as I read them).

[jimtron]

I'm confused. At what point would Randi know it was bogus? Before, during, or after the testing? Or never?

Now even if they somehow manage to win the challenge, I doubt Randi (or most of us on the forums) would automatically say "well I guess everything we know is wrong, psychics (or levitation, etc) do exists".

I'm sure he wouldn't "automatically" say the above, but if someone won the challenge, maybe that would mean something previously thought to be supernatural, is actually natural. It seems to me that it would be highly unlikely someone could win via trickery, but I don't think it's theoretically impossible.

[Bob Klase]

If you make a claim that you will accomplish your goal by supernatural means, and sign a contract that states this, then use magician's tricks instead, wouldn't this be considered fraud?

Only if Randi can prove how you accomplished it.

The way I read the rules (and I could be wrong, but I don't think so) that couldn't happen. You don't have to claim you're using "supernatural means". You just state what you can do and the conditions under which you can do it.

If the JREF decides that your claim (and it's conditions) meet the 'supernatural' requirement for the MDC then you haven't committed fraud. You've merely said you can do something under given conditions and the JREF has agreed to give you the money if you can do that under those conditions.

Also, I don't think that would make any difference after the fact. Once everyone has agreed to the protocols, if you successfully pass the test then it's too late for the JREF to come back and say "oops, you don't win because we just discovered you used a trick". It's up to JREF to make sure the protocol eliminates the possibility of a trick.

For example, if you say "I can make a straw move across the table without touching it". The JREF says "ok", but you have to do it with your hands tied behind your back and blindfolded. You agree. At test time, you blow on the straw. You win. It's too late for them to claim that "blowing isn't allowed because that's not supernatural". They agreed to the protocol that didn't prevent blowing from being used.

[Rodibidably]

I'm confused. At what point would Randi know it was bogus? Before, during, or after the testing? Or never?
If it was Penn or Teller, I'd guess all 3 (before, during and after).
If it's somebody claiming to be a psychic, perhaps all 3 (before during and after).
If it was some schmuck, Randi might technically "know" it's a trick after it succeeds, and he is trying to understand how

But if Randi can't PROVE it's a trick, it doesn't really matter what he thinks, or "knows".

For instance, I KNOW that the Penn and Teller bullet catch is a trick (It's an unbelievably good trick, but it's a trick non-the-less). I've seen them do it at the Rio, and there is no *********** way that the two of them fire real, loaded gun with real bullets at each other's faces.
But I can't prove it's a trick, because I don't know how it is done.

But to make this question easier, let's leave that out of it (since that seems to be a hangup that I never intended).

Simply, could somebody devise a trick (or be just so damn good at cold reading) to beat Randi's challenge, with all of it's protocols?

[jimtron]

Simply, could somebody devise a trick (or be just so damn good at cold reading) to beat Randi's challenge, with all of it's protocols?



I doubt it, but I don't think you can say definitely no. Regarding a trick that is--I don't see how you could win with cold reading.

[0m3g4]

Simply, could somebody devise a trick (or be just so damn good at cold reading) to beat Randi's challenge, with all of it's protocols?
I'm quite sure, yes. I'm not so sure it can be done in a way which leaves a profit. High-tech gadgets can be somewhat expensive. :)

[Rodibidably]

I'm quite sure, yes. I'm not so sure it can be done in a way which leaves a profit. High-tech gadgets can be somewhat expensive. :)
If you're Penn and Teller, would the money really matter?
Wouldn't the "bragging rights" of being able to say you pulled one off on Randi be worth however much it might cost?

Or if you're Sylvia Brown, James Von Prauge, John Edward, or any of those other scumbag "psychics", wouldn't it be worth some amount of money you've scammed out of innocent people to "shut up" Randi and the JREF?

[Wowbagger]

In theory, yes! In fact, I think Randi himself even said that, though I forget where and when.

Though, it is extremely unlikely that would happen. As someone said: It would have to be a really, really, really, really good trick.

Or, maybe a significant new scientific discovery no one else knows about yet...

[Rodibidably]

I'm sure he wouldn't "automatically" say the above, but if someone won the challenge, maybe that would mean something previously thought to be supernatural, is actually natural. It seems to me that it would be highly unlikely someone could win via trickery, but I don't think it's theoretically impossible.
Obviously there would be some thought about it being a real phenomena, but depending on the prior plausibility, I think Randi and others might spend a good deal of time looking for the "trick", before looking for the "phenomena".

[angelsaramark]

The use of a static generator, oscillating magnetic field or other force could possibly cause levitation. However, I think this sort of thing is above the IQ range of the Geller's of the world.

[jimtron]

Obviously there would be some thought about it being a real phenomena, but depending on the prior plausibility, I think Randi and others might spend a good deal of time looking for the "trick", before looking for the "phenomena".

I think Randi et al would spend time looking for the "trick" before the test took place. If they couldn't figure it out before the test, perhaps they wouldn't after either.

[Rasmus]

If it was Penn or Teller, I'd guess all 3 (before, during and after).
If it's somebody claiming to be a psychic, perhaps all 3 (before during and after).
If it was some schmuck, Randi might technically "know" it's a trick after it succeeds, and he is trying to understand how

But if Randi can't PROVE it's a trick, it doesn't really matter what he thinks, or "knows".

For instance, I KNOW that the Penn and Teller bullet catch is a trick (It's an unbelievably good trick, but it's a trick non-the-less). I've seen them do it at the Rio, and there is no *********** way that the two of them fire real, loaded gun with real bullets at each other's faces.
But I can't prove it's a trick, because I don't know how it is done.

But to make this question easier, let's leave that out of it (since that seems to be a hangup that I never intended).

Simply, could somebody devise a trick (or be just so damn good at cold reading) to beat Randi's challenge, with all of it's protocols?

I don't think you are looking at this the right way.

Randi and the JREF don't even need to know how exactly a trick would be performed. They just need to ensure that there is a prior check of all equipment used, no possibility to tamper and sufficient blinding.

Yes, Penn and Tellers' bullet-trick is impressive. The most impressive thing about the trick if the guns and bullets were provided and loaded by a neutral thread party, however, would be two dead bodies on the stage.

Likewise, no amount of cold reading would let you pass a reasonably well designed test. There is a reason that even the most successful "psychics" are easily identified as frauds, after all.

[Pantaz]

Simply, could somebody devise a trick (or be just so damn good at cold reading) to beat Randi's challenge, with all of it's protocols?

See, that right there is the hinge-point of the whole thing -- the protocols. This is the reason for requiring the test protocols be designed cooperatively with the applicant. The applicant first states what they can do, then the protocols are designed to eliminate any force/power/effect outside of that claimed. If the protocols are specified first, then a person can design a work-around.

[maatorc]

...the point of the challenge is to prove something can happen, that can't...

This is but an unsupportable presumption.

[Gravy]

In Theory, could Randi's Challenge be beaten by a trickOf course. In theory the paranormal challenge could be also be won through the discovery and use of a natural phenomenon that is not paranormal, in which case the scientific world would take great interest. Winning in these ways seems unlikely, though.

[Gravy]

In order to beat the challenge, it would have to be a trick because the point of the challenge is to prove something can happen, that can't.No.
That is, unless you have evidence that things that qualify for the challenge are impossible. The world would like to see that evidence.

[rjh01]

In practice if cheating was found out then no prize would be given. For example read the protocol in this thread http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=118952

It includes this paragraph.
No sleight-of-hand, trickery, or cheating - particularly, Ms. Putt cannot write the same reading for all ten volunteers.

Another thing that would stop a magician is that they would be either weak at their trade or well known. If the former then would not be able to win the prize. If the later then Mr Randi would know what to expect.

[MattC]

In theory, anyone can be tricked.

However, to willingly go forward with a trick implies a value judgment upon the part of the trickster that his own knowledge and preparation are superior to those of the intended victim. In the case of Mr. Randi, he has had nearly sixty years to prepare and accumulate knowledge about his chosen field, so the odds of him successfully being tricked are comparatively low.

~ Matt

[Elvis666]

See, that right there is the hinge-point of the whole thing -- the protocols. This is the reason for requiring the test protocols be designed cooperatively with the applicant. The applicant first states what they can do, then the protocols are designed to eliminate any force/power/effect outside of that claimed. If the protocols are specified first, then a person can design a work-around.

Pantaz reminds us of a crucial point. It would be very difficult for anyone to announce exactly what is going to happen, then prevent the folks at JREF from designing a protocol that prevents that very thing from happening. The applicant doesn't get to control his or her environment the way trickster would require to pull off a hoax.

[Delvo]

I'm curious why "cold reading" is the trick you think would be most likely to be able to pull this off. It's the one trick that requires the most audience/subject participation in order to work, which makes it the easiest one for the audience/subject to foil if they're not going out of their way to help. If beating the million-dollar challenge were to be done, it would have to be by a much less cheesy, dependent trick, something that the performer can do alone instead of relying completely on Randi to be his/her assistant.

[JFrankA]

I'm curious why "cold reading" is the trick you think would be most likely to be able to pull this off. It's the one trick that requires the most audience/subject participation in order to work, which makes it the easiest one for the audience/subject to foil if they're not going out of their way to help. If beating the million-dollar challenge were to be done, it would have to be by a much less cheesy, dependent trick, something that the performer can do alone instead of relying completely on Randi to be his/her assistant.

I agree here. If someone is cold reading you and you know only a little about cold reading, it still would be incredibly easy to prove that the person is doing it to you.

[zigaretten]

How about that guy who could identify records just by looking at them (with no labels, of course), Arthur Lintgen? I can easily imagine that if he had been the devious sort he might have taken the prize.

I think Randi would have figured out what was happening by the end, but I can picture Lintgen being able to finagle a protocol which would allow him to pass the test. It would be interesting to hear Randi's opinion on this one.

http://skepdic.com/vinylvision.html

[Rodibidably]

I'm curious why "cold reading" is the trick you think would be most likely to be able to pull this off. It's the one trick that requires the most audience/subject participation in order to work, which makes it the easiest one for the audience/subject to foil if they're not going out of their way to help. If beating the million-dollar challenge were to be done, it would have to be by a much less cheesy, dependent trick, something that the performer can do alone instead of relying completely on Randi to be his/her assistant.
I originally thought of this while reading through some of the protocols. One woman who claimed to be a psychic had gotten the JREF to agree to allow her to see the people, and hear their voice, and be in the room with her while she made her predictions.

Not I'm guessing this woman is a fraud, and probably a bad one, but it got me to thinking, if somebody who's REALLY good, acted incompetent during the protocol negotiation, and was able to "get the deck stacked in their favor" with regards to the protocol, that cold reading could beat the challenge.

I'm sure Randi would KNOW it was cold reading beinbg used, but if the protocol was sloppy enough (as it seemed in this particular case), how could Randi stop it once he had agreed to the protocol?

Maybe this particular protocol was not as "weak" as it seems to me, but allowing a "psychcic" to see and hear the "sitter" is asking for trouble.

[RoboTimbo]

I'm curious why "cold reading" is the trick you think would be most likely to be able to pull this off. It's the one trick that requires the most audience/subject participation in order to work, which makes it the easiest one for the audience/subject to foil if they're not going out of their way to help. If beating the million-dollar challenge were to be done, it would have to be by a much less cheesy, dependent trick, something that the performer can do alone instead of relying completely on Randi to be his/her assistant.

I agree with this also. You seem to be focused on cold reading. Cold reading is very easy to refute and classic cold reading techniques wouldn't make it past initial protocol negotiations. Can you think of a psychic reading protocol that wouldn't scream out "COLD READING HAPPENING HERE!"

[Czarcasm]

I originally thought of this while reading through some of the protocols. One woman who claimed to be a psychic had gotten the JREF to agree to allow her to see the people, and hear their voice, and be in the room with her while she made her predictions.

Not I'm guessing this woman is a fraud, and probably a bad one, but it got me to thinking, if somebody who's REALLY good, acted incompetent during the protocol negotiation, and was able to "get the deck stacked in their favor" with regards to the protocol, that cold reading could beat the challenge.

I'm sure Randi would KNOW it was cold reading beinbg used, but if the protocol was sloppy enough (as it seemed in this particular case), how could Randi stop it once he had agreed to the protocol?

Maybe this particular protocol was not as "weak" as it seems to me, but allowing a "psychcic" to see and hear the "sitter" is asking for trouble.Please remember that there are two steps to winning the MDC. If fraud was necessary to win the first tryout, a completely different fraud would be necessary to win the second.

[0m3g4]

Please remember that there are two steps to winning the MDC. If fraud was necessary to win the first tryout, a completely different fraud would be necessary to win the second.
Why that? Isn't the final test supposed to follow the same rules as the preliminary test?

[Rob Lister]

Picture identical twins (A and B) that claim they have a psychic connection such that they can read each others mind with >70% accuracy over a range of 30 feet or less.

For the Preliminary Test, the conditions are such that they must be in different rooms and out of sight from each other. A is shown a playing card and B records what A saw, number only, not suit. Sure enough, they do it with 84% accuracy over 104 cards.

What are your conditions for the Second test.

[0m3g4]

Picture identical twins (A and B) that claim they have a psychic connection such that they can read each others mind with >70% accuracy over a range of 30 feet or less.

For the Preliminary Test, the conditions are such that they must be in different rooms and out of sight from each other. A is shown a playing card and B records what A saw, number only, not suit. Sure enough, they do it with 84% accuracy over 104 cards.

What are your conditions for the Second test.
Hm, the same? :confused:

[Rob Lister]

Hm, the same? :confused:

Are you sure?

Randi knows it's a trick. How does he arrange the next test -- the money test -- to negate the trick?

[Rasmus]

Are you sure?

Randi knows it's a trick. How does he arrange the next test -- the money test -- to negate the trick?

I am not sure, but it is how I always understood the challenge to work. The second test has higher odds to beat - but that wouldn't be a problem for someone with a real ability to do something.

Changing the test seems incredibly unfair to me - the applicant claims to be able to do X under conditions a,b and c. That claim is tested. If the applicant passes, they have to basically just do it again to rule out sheer dumb luck.

A quick read shows nothing in the challegne rules or FAQ that indicates that the setup of the formal test will differ from that of the preliminary test. In fact,

5. After an agreement is reached on the protocol, no part of the testing procedure may be changed in any way without the further agreement – in writing – of all parties concerned.

[0m3g4]

Are you sure?

Randi knows it's a trick. How does he arrange the next test -- the money test -- to negate the trick?
I don't want to sound rude, but if you have a point to make, please make it. I'm really not into guessing at the moment.
As far as I know, I might be wrong, once a claim has been accepted as testable and a protocol has been designed and signed by both parties there is no more moving the goalposts.

Edit: Thanks Rasmus, that's exactly how I understand the rules.

[Rob Lister]

I don't want to sound rude, but if you have a point to make, please make it. I'm really not into guessing at the moment.
As far as I know, I might be wrong, once a claim has been accepted as testable and a protocol has been designed and signed by both parties there is no more moving the goalposts.

Edit: Thanks Rasmus, that's exactly how I understand the rules.


Ah, but your post reveals my point and answers the question posed in the opening post. The MDC is highly vulnerable to trickery, for those willing to do what it takes to risk it. I'm actually surprised Randi hasn't had to give the million away already. It might even be one (of many) reasons that Randi changed the terms to only allow 'notable' applicants.

Nevertheless. Here are Twins A and B. They claim what they claim. You create the preliminary test. Yes, it's a trick. But unless you (as a stand in for Randi) can negate the trick effect through protocol, the million is awarded.

Go for it.

I'll reveal the trick at the end. Yes, you'll balk. But too late. The money is already spent.

[0m3g4]

Ah, but your post reveals my point and answers the question posed in the opening post. The MDC is highly vulnerable to trickery, for those willing to do what it takes to risk it. I'm actually surprised Randi hasn't had to give the million away already. It might even be one (of many) reasons that Randi changed the terms to only allow 'notable' applicants.

Nevertheless. Here are Twins A and B. They claim what they claim. You create the preliminary test. Yes, it's a trick. But unless you (as a stand in for Randi) can negate the trick effect through protocol, the million is awarded.

Go for it.

I'll reveal the trick at the end. Yes, you'll balk. But too late. The money is already spent.

So... you don't have a point to make, but rather used my honest question regarding Czarcasm's post for your own advantage? Thanks a lot. :rolleyes:

[gdnp]

I think it is entirely possible for someone to cheat and win the prize. It all depends on how astute the people designing the challenge are at predicting what types of fraud could be perpetuated.

Say, for example, someone claims to be able to hear what his identical twin whispers at a distance to far to hear. Unbeknown to randi, they have had radio transmitters and receivers implanted in their teeth, disguised as root canals. Or swallowed and sitting in their stomach. Whatever.

Would the protocol require total body x-rays? would it require RF shielding? what if the transmitter/receiver system worked on something other than radio waves? It all depends on the ability of those designing the test to anticipate and detect cheating. As this will never be perfect, there is always the possibility that someone will find an undetected way to cheat.

[Rob Lister]

So... you don't have a point to make, but rather used my honest question regarding Czarcasm's post for your own advantage? Thanks a lot. :rolleyes:

I assure you, no offense meant. Love you no ****. Buy me fur coat.

[Rob Lister]

I think it is entirely possible for someone to cheat and win the prize. It all depends on how astute the people designing the challenge are at predicting what types of fraud could be perpetuated.

Say, for example, someone claims to be able to hear what his identical twin whispers at a distance to far to hear. Unbeknown to randi, they have had radio transmitters and receivers implanted in their teeth, disguised as root canals. Or swallowed and sitting in their stomach. Whatever.

Would the protocol require total body x-rays? would it require RF shielding? what if the transmitter/receiver system worked on something other than radio waves? It all depends on the ability of those designing the test to anticipate and detect cheating. As this will never be perfect, there is always the possibility that someone will find an undetected way to cheat.


Bingo, we already have a winner. Now, what about the next-in-line trick?

The MDC is a vulnerable thing.

[Rasmus]

Picture identical twins (A and B) that claim they have a psychic connection such that they can read each others mind with >70% accuracy over a range of 30 feet or less.

For the Preliminary Test, the conditions are such that they must be in different rooms and out of sight from each other. A is shown a playing card and B records what A saw, number only, not suit. Sure enough, they do it with 84% accuracy over 104 cards.

What are your conditions for the Second test.

What were the conditions for the first test?

Mainly,

- were the cards drawn randomly and shown to A one by one, with each card constituting a separate trial?

- when B made his guess/prediction, was he informed if it was a hit or a miss before the next trial? In case of a miss, would the actual card be revealed to him?

- Did A receive any of this information, and if so, at what time?

(I assume we are talking about 2 regular poker decks, and this 8 sets of cards starting at A, 2 and going up to 10, B, Q, K?)

Can I assume that the rooms are shielded against electronic communication?

Can I assume that it's not something dumb like A shouting out the result for B to hear?

[Czarcasm]

The MDC is a vulnerable thing.

Can anyone else spot the obvious flaw in this statement?

[Rasmus]

Can anyone else spot the obvious flaw in this statement?

Beside the inconvenient fact that it hasn't been beaten yet?

[Czarcasm]

Beside the inconvenient fact that it hasn't been beaten yet?Exactly. All those amateur and professional magicians, all those "psychic" frauds-do you really think none of them have thought of this?
You can't think of this as a one, or even two, step process. There is media exposure involving the claimed ability, signed statements from impartial professionals involving the claimed ability, and a detailed protocol gone over by some of the best in the biz. Now, can you come up with a winning scenario that will get through that gauntlet?

[gdnp]

You can't think of this as a one, or even two, step process. There is media exposure involving the claimed ability, signed statements from impartial professionals involving the claimed ability, and a detailed protocol gone over by some of the best in the biz. Now, can you come up with a winning scenario that will get through that gauntlet?

I think I already have. Hidden/implanted transmitters would fool a local reporter, a paranormal research lab would easily confirm that the communication had taken place, and then it is up to Randi to prove either that it doesn't work or that it is not paranormal. If the transmitters are hidden well enough or use a technology that Randi doesn't consider, they might go undetected. What if, for example, the transmitter or receiver were hidden in a cardiac pacemaker, modified from a standard model by Russian scientists. All the standard tests would show it to be an ordinary pacemaker. Would Randi require that the pacemaker be removed? If so, the contestants could claim that unreasonable requirements are being set.

Now I am not claiming that this is likely. Just that Randi and his colleagues are not infallible, and could potentially be fooled by a determined cheater.

[William Smith]

It never ceases to amaze me how many forum members have something to say about an OP donning a wildly speculative premise, when there are threads discussing actual tests (Ziborov, Koenig, Putt & Homeoproofer) right in the neighborhood.

Thank you for your continued interest. Weekends are a go.

[Rasmus]

Now I am not claiming that this is likely. Just that Randi and his colleagues are not infallible, and could potentially be fooled by a determined cheater.

Faraday Cage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_cage)

[MattC]

...
Just that Randi and his colleagues are not infallible, and could potentially be fooled by a determined cheater.

I think it a fair assumption that Mr. Randi and his colleagues are human, yes.

~ Matt

[Pantaz]

Many people assume they are going up against Randi for the challenge. These days, however, he is only a consultant to the protocol negotiations. I have looked over many of the challenges posted here (http://forums.randi.org/forumdisplay.php?f=43), and he very rarely involves himself beyond that capacity. The JREF also consults with experts around the world during protocol negotiations, and for preliminary tests.

Considering the combined knowledge and experience of all those involved, I believe the possibility for anyone successfully pulling-off a trick is extremely remote.

[gdnp]

I agree. But there are plenty of other things that I would think of as extremely remote possibilities that have occurred. A guy in Pennsylvania won the lottery twice. A shortstop broke Lou Gherig's consecutive game playing streak. People are lousy at estimating probabilities.

[Cuddles]

The people arguing that the MDC is easy to fool seem to be missing a very important point, in addition to those already mentioned. Simply claiming an ability does not get you accepted. If someone applies with a claim that is obviously just a trick, the JREF are completely free to tell them to piss off. If Randi knows it is a trick beforehand, it won't be tested. Simple as that.

Of course, as others have said, it is certainly possible for someone to win the challenge by trickery or by some new discovery, but that is not what the OP seems to be asking. If someone actually applies just trying to cold read, you have to have a pretty poor opinion of Randi and everyone involved at the JREF to think that they will just blindly accept a performance as an actual MDC test.

[Zax63]

Faraday Cage (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faraday_cage)

:desmile:What if "real" psychic powers won't operate through a Faraday cage?

[jimtron]

:desmile:What if "real" psychic powers won't operate through a Faraday cage?'

Then perhaps they can't be tested. But if there's good evidence said powers exist, then they probably can be tested.

[Rasmus]

'

Then perhaps they can't be tested. But if there's good evidence said powers exist, then they probably can be tested.

Yes.

In the end, if psychic powers only work if I am allowed to use a magical device that looks very much like a walkie talkie ... well, then there will be no test.

If someone objects to a Faraday Cage I suppose there might be ways to test for radio communication - or the JREF would simply not bother testing that claim.

[jimtron]

Also, I would ask, how do you know these psychic powers work? And how do you know Faraday cages prevent them from working? How was that information learned?

[maatorc]

Originally Posted by Zax63 View Post
Devil's Advocate: "What if "real" psychic powers won't operate through a Faraday cage?"
'Then perhaps they can't be tested. But if there's good evidence said powers exist, then they probably can be tested.

The MDC can potentially observe such powers, but does not possess the means to actually test such powers.

[PingOfPong]

A test subject could be coached to not give any cold reading clues. I saw a TV show in which Randi totally stumped a pair of Russion "psychics" by not reacting to anything they said.

[drkitten]

The MDC can potentially observe such powers, but does not possess the means to actually test such powers.

And this would be true if observation were not a form of testing.

[gdnp]

Look, radio waves are not the only form of communication over a distance. There may be others that would not be stopped by a Faraday cage. Or the contestant may argue that Faraday cages stop their psychic energy. Or the contestant may hack into the JREF computer system and turn the faraday cage off without the judges knowing. The specifics are not important. The point is that a crafty contestant might be able to fashion a communications method that the JREF testers could not detect and thus win the prize.

[jimtron]

The MDC can potentially observe such powers, but does not possess the means to actually test such powers.

This is too abstract. If someone says they have psychic powers, then I'd say: what are they? What can you do? It seems to me if the powers are real and consistent, they likely could be measured. Unless the power is vague and not very useful.

Could you give an example of a psychic power that could be observed but not tested?

[maatorc]

Originally Posted by maatorc View Post
The MDC can potentially observe such (edit: psychic) powers, but does not possess the means to actually test such powers.
And this would be true if observation were not a form of testing.

Observation is not a way of testing psychic powers.
Observation can but infer, not actually know or prove, such powers exist.
The MDC protocols are as far removed from the possible sphere of psychic events as is a school-yard game of tag from the structure and function of a Gothic Cathedral.

[Dan O.]

I think it would be great to try. Perhaps as an event at the next TAM, Penn could attempt to perform an illusion undetected after a negotiated protocol with Randi.

You could hold a "stump the skeptics" challenge at the local skeptic meetings. One member or a visitor they don't know would propose they have a special power and let the group try to negotiate a protocol to test that power. Anyone that beat the locals could then try to take on Randi at the next TAM (This insures that at least a working protocol has been negotiated before Randi gets involved). Of course, there won't be a $1M prize.

[Rasmus]

Look, radio waves are not the only form of communication over a distance.

If both subjects are within separate closed rooms, cannot use any visible technical devices, can't shout or tap more code with their feet then there won't be much left that they could use.

There may be others that would not be stopped by a Faraday cage.

Possibly. But I guess it wouldn't take long to find out about them.

Or the contestant may argue that Faraday cages stop their psychic energy.

Yes. Then it is possible that their alleged powers cannot be submitted to a fair, reliable test. In such a case, the challenge still can't be won.

Or the contestant may hack into the JREF computer system and turn the faraday cage off without the judges knowing.

uh ... hardly.

Also, this could easily be controlled for and it would be difficult to achieve. Any attack on any counter measures taken by the JREF would have to hapopen reliably and during the test itself.

The specifics are not important. The point is that a crafty contestant might be able to fashion a communications method that the JREF testers could not detect and thus win the prize.

Nobody denies that it would be possible. No system is 100% safe ever.

But it is not likely that anyone will get away with cheating during the MDC. It would be extremely difficult to cheat, since it is assumed that that is the only way the challenge could be won (shy of actually having real paranormal powers, of course).

[maatorc]

Originally Posted by maatorc View Post
The MDC can potentially observe such powers, but does not possess the means to actually test such powers.
This is too abstract. If someone says they have psychic powers, then I'd say: what are they? What can you do? It seems to me if the powers are real and consistent, they likely could be measured. Unless the power is vague and not very useful.
Could you give an example of a psychic power that could be observed but not tested?

The one only way to have absolute and incontrovertible proof of a psychic event is to actually experience one.

[0m3g4]

The one only way to have absolute and incontrovertible proof of a psychic event is to actually experience one.
Not at all. Just "experiencing" such an event is no proof. Over in "General Skepticism and The Paranormal" there is a poll showing that over 20% have experienced a paranormal event. You wouldn't call that a proof, would you?

[gdnp]

Nobody denies that it would be possible. No system is 100% safe ever.



If you look back at the title of thread, it is "In Theory, could Randi's Challenge be beaten by a trick?" Not "how likely is it for Randi's challenge to be beaten by a trick?" The CIA may have concealable communications devices that we don't know about. Computers can be hacked. JREF experts can be corrupted. I'm not saying it would be easy. I'm not saying it would be cheap. Just that it would be possible.

I do have a question, however, related to the definition of paranormal. Would the demonstration that I could communicate "telepathically" with my identical twin be considered proof of a paranormal ability if the JREF tests showed that it involved radio waves, but could not demonstrate any transmitter or receiver?

[Rasmus]

I do have a question, however, related to the definition of paranormal. Would the demonstration that I could communicate "telepathically" with my identical twin be considered proof of a paranormal ability if the JREF tests showed that it involved radio waves, but could not demonstrate any transmitter or receiver?

No, probably not. Radio waves are not paranormal, seeing how radios aren't magic devices. If it was demonstrated that you could do that, I would expect to find that somehow you had a natural way to transmit and receive such waves (if no cheating was going on)

[0m3g4]

No, probably not. Radio waves are not paranormal, seeing how radios aren't magic devices. If it was demonstrated that you could do that, I would expect to find that somehow you had a natural way to transmit and receive such waves (if no cheating was going on)
I'd say that someone's ability to transmit and receive radio waves (without technical equipment of any kind) would qualify as paranormal. If such a claim could be testable is of course a different question.

[drkitten]

Observation is not a way of testing psychic powers.

And in Bizarro-world, this is actually true.

In the real world, however,


Observation can but infer, not actually know or prove, such powers exist.

and such inferences are legitimate tests. Similarly, laboratory "testing" that proves your fingerprints are on a knife cannot actually know of prove that you handled it, but when your fingerprints are found on the murder weapon, you're probably in deep trouble from the results of the test.


The MDC protocols are as far removed from the possible sphere of psychic events as is a school-yard game of tag from the structure and function of a Gothic Cathedral.

Oh, they're even farther removed. Since the MDC demonstrably exists, and there is no "possible" sphere of psychic events --- and the evidence collected by the MDC is part of the collected body of evidence that lets us make that statement with confidence -- the MDC and psychic powers are as far removed as a Scrabble game and a mermaid. Mermaids don't exist either, you see.....

[Rasmus]

I'd say that someone's ability to transmit and receive radio waves (without technical equipment of any kind) would qualify as paranormal. If such a claim could be testable is of course a different question.

Possibly. But it might be found that a natural way just evolved. In that case, it would be just as exciting, but perfectly "normal".

[maatorc]

Not at all. Just "experiencing" such an event is no proof. Over in "General Skepticism and The Paranormal" there is a poll showing that over 20% have experienced a paranormal event. You wouldn't call that a proof, would you?

To the individual experiencing it, yes, but not to anyone else; and thus the problem of the MDC!

[maatorc]

...Since the MDC demonstrably exists, and there is no "possible" sphere of psychic events ...

If this is so, why does the MDC exist?

[GreyICE]

Look, radio waves are not the only form of communication over a distance. There may be others that would not be stopped by a Faraday cage. Or the contestant may argue that Faraday cages stop their psychic energy. Or the contestant may hack into the JREF computer system and turn the faraday cage off without the judges knowing. The specifics are not important. The point is that a crafty contestant might be able to fashion a communications method that the JREF testers could not detect and thus win the prize.

Err, you don't actually know what one is, do you? They can't be turned off.

And if the psychics argue that their powers don't work through a cage, then there's other ways. Broad frequency radio jammers could be employed inside a cage to blanket all frequencies. Shouldn't have any effect on psychic powers, but will sure screw up your radios.

If you can devise a cheat, a counter can be devised. The immense difficulty any fraud has is the initial qualifications, the initial test, and then the retest (which allows new ways of intercepting tricks).

Of course real psychics could breeze through this (presumably while riding their real unicorns). No matter how good James Randi is, I doubt him or anyone who works for him has any experience disrupting real psychics. Just frauds.

If paranormal powers existed, they would have some element of reproducibility that would allow them to be observed. Then they would be documented fact. Somehow everyone who claims to have them fails to provide this.

[Pope130]

The Faraday cage idea has potential. If the psychic contends his powers don't work inside, this provides a possible test.

Build a series of boxes. Plywood inside and out. Some of them have a Faraday cage between the layers of wood. The psychic steps inside, closes the door and states whether his powers are working. If he can identify which boxes are Faraday cages he wins. Of course all the usual precautions, no metal detectors, cell phones or such.

Robert

[Dan O.]

An applicant with a bad filling might be able to beat that test.

link (http://www.snopes.com/radiotv/tv/fillings.asp)

[autumn1971]

An applicant with a bad filling might be able to beat that test.

link (http://www.snopes.com/radiotv/tv/fillings.asp)
Or an applicant who had been threatened with blacklisting and needed a story to convince Amerika that she was loyal?

[Rasmus]

The Faraday cage idea has potential. If the psychic contends his powers don't work inside, this provides a possible test.

Build a series of boxes. Plywood inside and out. Some of them have a Faraday cage between the layers of wood. The psychic steps inside, closes the door and states whether his powers are working. If he can identify which boxes are Faraday cages he wins. Of course all the usual precautions, no metal detectors, cell phones or such.

Robert

That wouldn't work if we assume that someone could work with a concealed radio transmitter, though. Or am I missunderstanding you?

[Gravy]

How about that guy who could identify records just by looking at them (with no labels, of course), Arthur Lintgen? I can easily imagine that if he had been the devious sort he might have taken the prize.

I think Randi would have figured out what was happening by the end, but I can picture Lintgen being able to finagle a protocol which would allow him to pass the test. It would be interesting to hear Randi's opinion on this one.

http://skepdic.com/vinylvision.htmlThere's nothing paranormal about that ability, any more than there is about the ability of a biologist who can differentiate between many closely-related species. Lintgen recognized the distinctive patterns in the vinyl of some classical recordings. He could not, for example, take an unlabeled pop record and "read" the music on it by looking at the grooves.

[Thabiguy]

I'm late to reply, but still:
Randi knows it's a trick. How does he arrange the next test -- the money test -- to negate the trick?
Every approved protocol states that no trickery is allowed. Therefore, if Randi knows that a trick is taking place, he needn't change anything about the protocol or the test. All he needs to do is reveal the trickery.

[xinit]

Man, now part of me wants to see Penn and Teller get together with Banachek to actually attempt a demonstration of the JREF testing. If anyone could get through, I'd imagine this threesome could come up with something.

[petre]

I'm late to reply, but still:

Every approved protocol states that no trickery is allowed. Therefore, if Randi knows that a trick is taking place, he needn't change anything about the protocol or the test. All he needs to do is reveal the trickery.

I knew if I read far enough everything I'd have to say would be covered.

[Pope130]

That wouldn't work if we assume that someone could work with a concealed radio transmitter, though. Or am I missunderstanding you?

By including "no metal detectors, cell phones or such." I meant any sort of electronic device, such as a radio transmitter or receiver. I should have been more clear.

If all physical means of detecting the presence of the Faraday cage were eliminated, the psychic would be able to make the case that he detected it by a non-physical means.

[0m3g4]

A simple magnet would be enough to find your plywood-covered cage. ;)

[xinit]

A simple magnet would be enough to find your plywood-covered cage. ;)

Doesn't have to be a magnetic metal; brass mesh should work just fine, and isn't magnetic.

[gdnp]

except anyone with a hidden radio receiver, however crude, could tell they were in a Faraday cage by the loss of the signal.

[xinit]

except anyone with a hidden radio receiver, however crude, could tell they were in a Faraday cage by the loss of the signal.

This is also why I'm a fan of treating the exam room like a clean room; the test taker shows up, removes clothing, gets a quick check up from a doctor, and dons a JREF provided t-shirt, pants, and slippers.

Unless you're getting radio signals in your teeth or have a steel plate that receives TV broadcasts, then this should prevent faraday cage detection.

[rjh01]

Stop trying to think that a body search will find everything. You can smuggle drugs and other stuff into prison so a person should be able to be smuggle almost anything into the test. And this is despite your precautions.

And as for detecting radio waves, that will not be easy either.

However the fact that no-one has made a serious attempt to win the MDC by cheating does show that it is very difficult to do so. That is one of the most strange but true things.

[drkitten]

Stop trying to think that a body search will find everything. You can smuggle drugs and other stuff into prison so a person should be able to be smuggle almost anything into the test. And this is despite your precautions.

Of course, Randi has both much greater capacity to search (since he only has one claimant to deal with) and much greater incentive (since the guard doesn't care that much if drugs get in -- in many cases, he's "on the take" and doing the smuggling).


However the fact that no-one has made a serious attempt to win the MDC by cheating does show that it is very difficult to do so. That is one of the most strange but true things.

I don't think it's that strange. I can't imagine the likelihood of getting away with it being worth submitting to surgery to have a radio transmitter implanted....

[gdnp]

I don't think it's that strange. I can't imagine the likelihood of getting away with it being worth submitting to surgery to have a radio transmitter implanted....
A minor office procedure under local anesthesia? For a million bucks? Or just swallow the darn thing.

[Dan O.]

Of course, Randi (or his experts) already know about Nonlinear junction detector and have either used them or had them available for use to screen the applicants. This in combination with metal detectors would effectively eliminate any possibility of smuggling in any electronic device. No strip search is necessary.

[drkitten]

A minor office procedure under local anesthesia? For a million bucks? Or just swallow the darn thing.

And how are you going to manipulate it inside your stomach?
You need to be able to get information to it in order for it to transmit.

[Gravy]

However the fact that no-one has made a serious attempt to win the MDC by cheating does show that it is very difficult to do so. That is one of the most strange but true things.You may also want to consider the disincentive of getting caught and going to jail for attempted theft of a million dollars.

[rjh01]

No criminal offense required. For example
Claim. - I can juggle five ordinary tennis balls in the air at the same time for 2 minutes. I will have no more than three attempts and succeed at least once.
JREf - That is paranormal. Please demonstrate.
I then demonstrate such an ability and win $1m. The fact that I do it because I have super fast reflexes are not important. I could do what I claimed I could do.

[Rob Lister]

I'm late to reply, but still:

Every approved protocol states that no trickery is allowed. Therefore, if Randi knows that a trick is taking place, he needn't change anything about the protocol or the test. All he needs to do is reveal the trickery.

That is the point. I think everyone [on this thread] can agree that the million is not at risk due to real paranormal ability. Therefore, the real challenge is being able to fool Randi twice [and Randi doesn't pay much attention in the first test] with the same trick. Just because it hasn't yet been done doesn't mean it can't be done. Randi is good but he ain't god. Everyone can be fooled some of the time.

[Rodibidably]

That is the point. I think everyone [on this thread] can agree that the million is not at risk due to real paranormal ability. Therefore, the real challenge is being able to fool Randi twice [and Randi doesn't pay much attention in the first test] with the same trick. Just because it hasn't yet been done doesn't mean it can't be done. Randi is good but he ain't god. Everyone can be fooled some of the time.

If psychic powers were real, then Sylvia Brown, John Edward, or some other scum-bag fraud would have won the money by now to shut up Randi and the "rest of us skeptics" (although I guess if they were truly psychics, they would not be "scum-bag frauds").
If some other paranormal ability was true, and could be proven to exist (i.e. repeatable under a test environment), then Uri Geller or somebody else would have done it by now and taken Randi's million.

So we have to assume that there are only a few possibilities as to why the challenge has not been beaten yet.


Psychic and other paranormal powers do not exist (my personal guess).
Psychic or paranormal powers DO exist, but those who truly have them have yet to apply for the challenge, either due to ignorance of the challenge or choice to avoid the exposure. In which case I'd wonder why no reputable media source has come forward to help such a person prove their power?
Psychic or paranormal powers DO exist, but are uncontrollable to a degree to make them untestable under Randi's challenge. In which case what good are they?
Randi is a fraud and will never give away the money. In which case why has no credible source in the media shown a former contestant with a power who was cheated by Randi?

So if we agree that for whatever reason the challenge has not been beaten by psychic or paranormal means, and is unlikely to be beaten any time soon, then the most likely scenario to beat it is fraud of some type.

Now if you're Sylvia Brown, Uri Geller, Peter Popoff, or some other scum-bag fraud, wouldn't you be interested in "shutting up" Randi once and for all?
If you're Penn and Teller, wouldn't you love the "street cred" among other magicians of having "beaten" Randi?
Don't you think in both cases it would be worth a loss money wise (i.e. coming up wit ha trick that costs more than 1 mil to pull off) just to "beat" Randi?

So why aren't they training somebody to use their methods to beat Randi (or trying to beat him themselves)?
Randi's good, but he's getting older, there must be new ways to do tricks that he could not deduce before agreeing to the protocol.

[Czarcasm]

Why haven't Penn and Teller gone after the MDC?
I suspect it is because they are respected professionals with a sense of honor, not con artists.

[Rodibidably]

Why haven't Penn and Teller gone after the MDC?
I suspect it is because they are respected professionals with a sense of honor, not con artists.
Where would a con be involved? If Penn or Teller were involved, EVERYBODY would know it's a trick from the beginning. It's not like Penn or Teller would lie and claim special powers, they would just claim "we can do X", allow Randi to set-up a protocol where he is convinced they can not use trickery, and then it would be up to them to use trickery.

I'm sure that anybody who's good enough to "get one over" on Randi, is also somebody who's not interested in the million, or claiming powers, but in "tricking" Randi.

Penn and Teller are long time friends of Randi, I'd be surprised if the two of them have never thought about it.

Hmmm...
*runs off to email Penn at "Penn Says"*

[Czarcasm]

If you want to propose a "Let's See If You Can Trick James Randi!" contest, go right ahead, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the MDC as it now stands(which involves testing actual paranormal claims), and thus is off -topic for this forum, in my humble opinion.

[Rodibidably]

If you want to propose a "Let's See If You Can Trick James Randi!" contest, go right ahead, but that has absolutely nothing to do with the MDC as it now stands(which involves testing actual paranormal claims), and thus is off -topic for this forum, in my humble opinion.
Having read through some (not all, but a good number) of the protocols, there is not always a stipulation on psychic or paranormal powers.
In a number of cases the protocol states what the person will do, and a number of things they are and are not allowed to do towards accomplishing this goal.
They generally say something to the effect of "no trickery allowed", but unless the JREF can figure out how they were tricked, this is somewhat meaningless. For instance, if I CLAIM to be able to read the contents of a letter in a sealed envelope, it could be a ghost or angel or whatever reading it for me and me just repeating what they tell me. Or it could be that an image of the letter appears in head. Or I could have x-ray vision. Or I could have seen the letter (somehow) before it was put in the envelope. From what I've read of the protocols, I would not be required to state HOW I was going to read the letter, just that under certain conditions I will be able to tell the JREF what's written on the letter.

As long as I'm careful not to out-right lie (to avoid possible fraud charges, which may or may not even be applicable) and I don't get caught by the JREF, it doesn't matter HOW I did it; Randi would have to sign the check.

[Cuddles]

Where would a con be involved? If Penn or Teller were involved, EVERYBODY would know it's a trick from the beginning. It's not like Penn or Teller would lie and claim special powers, they would just claim "we can do X", allow Randi to set-up a protocol where he is convinced they can not use trickery, and then it would be up to them to use trickery.

But this just comes back to the point I made earlier - the JREF doesn't not blindly accept every single claim they hear. If they know it's a trick and no-one ever claims it is paranormal, why on Earth do you think it would get tested?

The only way a trick could ever even be accepted as a claim would be if it claimed to be real ability and would therefore be a con, by definition.

[Gravy]

Don't you think in both cases it would be worth a loss money wise (i.e. coming up wit ha trick that costs more than 1 mil to pull off) just to "beat" Randi?No, because if you're caught you're ruined, and you could go to jail for a long time (not speaking of P&T here: invoking them simply makes no sense). The MDC agreement is a legal document that spells out under what terms a million dollars will be awarded. It would be a mistake to think that the keepers of that money would take its attempted theft lightly.

[Czarcasm]

If someone who had no prior history of trickery applied with a claim of paranormal abilities, fooled the media into covering her/him, fooled professionals into vouching for her/him, got through the rigorous protocol process involving the whole of JREF and all the outside help , took the preliminary and passed, took the main test and passed, and never admitted to anyone after the fact that a fraud was comitted and was never exposed by anyone, yes-someone could defraud the MDC.

But we would never know, would we, so what is the purpose of this thread?

[Dan O.]

It doesn't require trickery to beat the MDC. I believe everybody has this ability in them and could prove it if they applied.

I claim that I can predict the outcome of a coin toss. If a coin is tossed 10 times, I can successfully predict the result of each toss. I can do this twice, once for the preliminary challenge and once for the final challenge.

Of course, this is hard to do so I would use trickery to fool the press (there's no law against that). But for the preliminary and final challenge I would use only my ability to mathematically predict the result. Everybody could do this and the $1M would be history.

[Czarcasm]

It doesn't require trickery to beat the MDC. I believe everybody has this ability in them and could prove it if they applied.

I claim that I can predict the outcome of a coin toss. If a coin is tossed 10 times, I can successfully predict the result of each toss. I can do this twice, once for the preliminary challenge and once for the final challenge.

Of course, this is hard to do so I would use trickery to fool the press (there's no law against that). But for the preliminary and final challenge I would use only my ability to mathematically predict the result. Everybody could do this and the $1M would be history.
Gosh, when you put it that way, I've just gotta dump all my arguments.

And the reason you haven't applied for the all-so-easy-to-win MDC is.......?

[William Smith]

It doesn't require trickery to beat the MDC. I believe everybody has this ability in them and could prove it if they applied.

I claim that I can predict the outcome of a coin toss. If a coin is tossed 10 times, I can successfully predict the result of each toss. I can do this twice, once for the preliminary challenge and once for the final challenge.

Of course, this is hard to do so I would use trickery to fool the press (there's no law against that). But for the preliminary and final challenge I would use only my ability to mathematically predict the result. Everybody could do this and the $1M would be history.

Do it. Now.

[GreyICE]

Do it. Now.
Oh I can predict the outcome too.

The coin will land on the ground.

Gravity is mighty consistent that way

(Hey, I didn't say WHAT outcome I was predicting).

[Czarcasm]

A protocol that vague would never be accepted.

[rwp]

Randi usually does not even have to participate in the tests.

[Dan O.]

Do it. Now.

Hasn't the deadline for starting a challenge past yet? I'd do it but all the protocoll negotiations will be too much hastle for both myself and JREF. Besides, it's only a measly $1 million.

Another factor is by winning, I would be taking away taking away a significant source of funding from JREF and this forum would have to shut down unless I took over it's operation and that sounds like even more of a hastle.

If I was going to do this, there would need to be a prearranged protocol that was open to everyone (because I don't want to be given special treatment) and the preliminary challenge would take place on the internet so there is minimal cost to both applicant and JREF.

PS: I'd also like to specify that the prize money would go to a special endowment for educating the public about paranormal claims.

[William Smith]

Hasn't the deadline for starting a challenge past yet? I'd do it but all the protocoll negotiations will be too much hastle for both myself and JREF. Besides, it's only a measly $1 million.

Another factor is by winning, I would be taking away taking away a significant source of funding from JREF and this forum would have to shut down unless I took over it's operation and that sounds like even more of a hastle.

If I was going to do this, there would need to be a prearranged protocol that was open to everyone (because I don't want to be given special treatment) and the preliminary challenge would take place on the internet so there is minimal cost to both applicant and JREF.

PS: I'd also like to specify that the prize money would go to a special endowment for educating the public about paranormal claims.

You could still apply.

However, since you seem to take pleasure in innuendoes - and since you seem to greatly and deliberately misunderstand the application and protocol negotiation process - I am not holding my breath for your evidence of a paranormal ability.



But why would you deprive the world of your amazing ability? Oh why, oh my.

[Thabiguy]

Is this some kind of parody?

[William Smith]

Is this some kind of parody?

Yes.

[Thabiguy]

Yes.

Well, what I meant was that some parts of Dan O.'s post are so blatantly absurd (like the part with this forum having to shut down unless he takes over its operation) that I was wondering for a moment if he might perhaps be trying to do a deliberate impression of an I'm-too-sexy-for-MDC-woo. Though the possible point of doing that is beyond me.

[Kevin_Lowe]

It doesn't require trickery to beat the MDC. I believe everybody has this ability in them and could prove it if they applied.

I claim that I can predict the outcome of a coin toss. If a coin is tossed 10 times, I can successfully predict the result of each toss. I can do this twice, once for the preliminary challenge and once for the final challenge.

Of course, this is hard to do so I would use trickery to fool the press (there's no law against that). But for the preliminary and final challenge I would use only my ability to mathematically predict the result. Everybody could do this and the $1M would be history.

I'm guessing Dan O. is going to do a "big reveal" where he says "Ha ha, I meant everyone, if everyone in the whole world did this someone would get lucky and win by random chance! Ha ha! I can doo mafs!".

[Dan O.]

I'm guessing Dan O. is going to do a "big reveal" where he says "Ha ha, I meant everyone, if everyone in the whole world did this someone would get lucky and win by random chance! Ha ha! I can doo mafs!".


Ha ha yourself. I meant every word that I said. You won't be laughing when the forum closes down because JREF looses the interest from that $1M they've been living off. Maybe you could start taking up a collection to make up the loss. But this is getting off topic and should be taken to another thread if you want to continue discussions of JREF finances.

This thread is about trickery and winning the Million. Would JREF accept my challenge?

[MattC]

Probably not unless you mean 'accepting your challenge' in the context of 'applying for theirs'.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume they have enough to occupy their time (running a business and all) to not need to respond to challenges people throw at them. If someone desires to challenge them, there is a method to do so for those who can meet their rather reasonable criteria.

~ Matt

[Dan O.]

Then I have enough to occupy my time that I don't need to waste it jumping through hoops filling out challenge applications when the chance of actually getting that million is, a million to one.

[MattC]

The odds become far worse when one doesn't apply.

I have, however, been working up some alternative plans to obtain this million. I speak in terms of robbing Goldman-Sachs. If you're on board I'll be happy to discuss the plans with you, I can use an entry man.

~ Matt

[Rasmus]

A protocol that vague would never be accepted.

I agree. But if you add in legal and watertight descriptions for "tossing a coin" and "predicting the result", it might work.

Then again, I think I have heard its quite possible to manipulate the toss of a coin with some practise?

[Czarcasm]

I agree. But if you add in legal and watertight descriptions for "tossing a coin" and "predicting the result", it might work.Maybe...if you got them drunk on bad tequila before having them look at such a flimsy offer. Please try to remember that they are under no obligation to take any offer that comes along, no matter how airtight you make the protocol. Your challenge must clearly be paranormal.

[EHocking]

There's nothing paranormal about that ability, any more than there is about the ability of a biologist who can differentiate between many closely-related species. Lintgen recognized the distinctive patterns in the vinyl of some classical recordings. He could not, for example, take an unlabeled pop record and "read" the music on it by looking at the grooves.And in response to zigaretten's question on what Randi's take is, here's a Swift article from Nov 2002 (http://www.randi.org/jr/110102.html)on the subject. Note that Lintgen was not tested under MDC rules, Randi was merely asked to review his abilities.

It's enlightening to read Randi's comments on accusations that Lintgen was tested under the MDC and JREF reneged on the deal, (my bolding)

"Please note that those who know they cannot meet the JREF challenge, also choose not to understand the challenge — and lie about the matter freely. Thank you for informing me of this mendacity, and allowing me to try to set the record straight. "

[DevilsAdvocate]

Randi has said (I can't find the quote right now) that if you pass the test you get the $1 million even if it is later determined that you used trickery. Accepting a protocol is a binding legal contract and if you win, you win.

JREF has been unclear on the differences between the preliminary and final tests. Kramer had said that once a protocol had been approved, it would not be changed for the preliminary or final test. Both tests would be the same, with the same set up and results. However, Randi has implied that the protocol for the final test could be different from the preliminary, which makes sense to me. If the applicant passes the preliminary and you see how they could be doing a trick, you would want to be able to modify the protocol for the final test to eliminate that trickery. That kind of seems to be one of the reasons for requiring two tests.

JREF determines whether or not your claim is paranormal. JREF can reject a claim that is simply a trick. The forums show claims that have been rejected for applicants who were simply trying to win by luck (probability).

So, if you are unethical scumbag with a bunch of luck or talent, it is possible to win the MDC by luck or by trickery without any paranormal ability, even though that is clearly not the purpose of the MDC.

[rjh01]

I would have thought that if any magician tried to win they would stand a good chance of being successful. However this thread (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=121157) indicates that it is not so simple.

[The Professor]

Randi is a great Magician. He can see through ANY TRICKS!
No one could fool him!
(As of yet the JREF has refused to accept challenges from Jim Callahan)

[Elvis666]

Randi is a great Magician. He can see through ANY TRICKS!
No one could fool him!
(As of yet the JREF has refused to accept challenges from Jim Callahan)

You need to keep up.

I will not be sending in an application for the MDC.

Jim

Callahan doesn't apply, JREF doesn't have to refuse anything.

[Czarcasm]

Randi is a great Magician. He can see through ANY TRICKS!
No one could fool him!
(As of yet the JREF has refused to accept challenges from Jim Callahan)Actually, Jim Callahan is the one who has refused to apply for the Challenge.

[Pogo]

Randi is a great Magician. He can see through ANY TRICKS!
No one could fool him!
(As of yet the JREF has refused to accept challenges from Jim Callahan)

So let him apply. As we've seen recently, anybody can do it.

[fromdownunder]

Randi is a great Magician. He can see through ANY TRICKS!
No one could fool him!
(As of yet the JREF has refused to accept challenges from Jim Callahan)

So, why don't you convince him to apply for Randi's $1M? He does not seem to want to, as his very own words on this forum have stated.

Ofr course living in an alternative universe, you can still probably make some Bizarro claim that reality does not apply in your, or his case.

Norm.

[The Professor]

Jim Callahan sees the JREF MDC as Bogus, agreeing with Many others. I thought that I'd give you guys a fair shot. Why Not?
Certainly a bunch of Advanced Critical Thinkers bordering on Genius would be extremely nice folks to work with :)
LMAO

And Smart too!

[Cavemonster]

Here's the thing.
Nobody here believes that your claim, or Jim's are special.
There is no reason for JREF to run around and chase down every fraud by negotiating new contests with every jerk. That's why there IS an MDC challenge with a huge prize. It isn't worth the effort to examine and negotiate a new protocol on new terms for every charlatan.

[chillzero]

We seem to be straying away from the discussion topic of whether the MDC could be won by a trick. Specific claims are under discussion in their specific threads, and should not be discussed here.

I'm hoping we won't need to set yet another thread on moderated status.

[Azrael 5]

We seem to be straying away from the discussion topic of whether the MDC could be won by a trick. Specific claims are under discussion in their specific threads, and should not be discussed here.

I'm hoping we won't need to set yet another thread on moderated status.

Agreed.
If trolls cease from posting off topic posts that boil down to nonsense,all will be well. ;)

[Cavemonster]

It seems unlikely that after so many years, with so much money on the line, it hasn't already been done if it is possible.

To me, the only strong possibility would be through the use of undetectable technology.
Communication through morse code in a receiver hidden in a shirt button, perhaps using a signal that is heavily encrypted to resemble static?

[The Professor]

I think it can be beaten with MAGIC. No trick.

[Cavemonster]

It seems unlikely that after so many years, with so much money on the line, it hasn't already been done if it is possible.


still stands

[Czarcasm]

I think it can be beaten with MAGIC. No trick.Well, duh.
To get back to the subject at hand, The Professor: Do you think that the MDC could be won through trickery?

[rjh01]

If it could be won though a magic trick then we would have had several attempts at this by people who are trained by good magicians. However a few people have tried to win it via tricks. They have been detected very easily. One such example is here The PROPHET YAHWEH, Maker of UFO's (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=40507)

[RoboTimbo]

I think it can be beaten with MAGIC. No trick.

I think you mean it can be beaten with a MAGIC trick. Wait, don't you have some unfinished business elsewhere? Something beginning with "P", rhymes with "rotocol". Hm, can't think of the word.

[Dan O.]

It seems unlikely that after so many years, with so much money on the line, it hasn't already been done if it is possible.

To me, the only strong possibility would be through the use of undetectable technology.
Communication through morse code in a receiver hidden in a shirt button, perhaps using a signal that is heavily encrypted to resemble static?

I think we can be reasonably certain that if any applicant passed the preliminary challenge they will be thoroughly screened before the final challenge.

A critical stage of any radio receiver is the detector which involves non-linear components. This makes them subject to detection by non-linear junction detectors. Screening the receiver from a non-linear junction detector requires bulky filters and shielding which are then easily detected by metal detectors, x-rays or cat scans. And if you somehow manage to get past all of that, your receiver isn't even going to pick up static when you are sitting inside a Faraday Cage.


But why bother with high-tech cheats when your body is all you need to detect the energy flowing through the objects around you. Using advanced TRS techniques, this energy can be focused and used for communications.

[Thabiguy]

But why bother with high-tech cheats when your body is all you need to detect the energy flowing through the objects around you. Using advanced TRS techniques, this energy can be focused and used for communications.

Oooh! Good news for the people who can do that. There's an easy million waiting for them. Boy, do I envy them.

Oh, wait... is this one of those techniques that would win the Million Dollar Challenge, but unfortunately, knowing it also makes you too sexy to apply?

[The Professor]

Well, duh.
To get back to the subject at hand, The Professor: Do you think that the MDC could be won through trickery?

No one will ever get to take the shot at the million on an even playing field.
God himself would never be allowed to take the test (Unless he Forced it) :)
That is my true belief, but I'm counting on you guys to prove me wrong. I don't always have to be right :)
:cool::cool:

[The Professor]

I think you mean it can be beaten with a MAGIC trick. Wait, don't you have some unfinished business elsewhere? Something beginning with "P", rhymes with "rotocol". Hm, can't think of the word.

You are SO CLEVER!
No one can do more than one thing in their lives.
I guess no one can say anything you don't want them too.
You are a great critical thinker!

[Cavemonster]

I think we can be reasonably certain that if any applicant passed the preliminary challenge they will be thoroughly screened before the final challenge.

A critical stage of any radio receiver is the detector which involves non-linear components. This makes them subject to detection by non-linear junction detectors. Screening the receiver from a non-linear junction detector requires bulky filters and shielding which are then easily detected by metal detectors, x-rays or cat scans. And if you somehow manage to get past all of that, your receiver isn't even going to pick up static when you are sitting inside a Faraday Cage.


But why bother with high-tech cheats when your body is all you need to detect the energy flowing through the objects around you. Using advanced TRS techniques, this energy can be focused and used for communications.

I have to admit, I don't know much about radio signals. However, so much new information storage and communication technology has been created in the last decade that it seems impossible to control for all possible variations.

DIY folks these days regularly repurpose industrial technology for new and unexpected uses. Imagine a key piece of equipment, I don't know, let's say "my lucky shirt". Can't an object have a possible technological function impossible or incredibly difficult to detect without knowing the method used?

For instance, imagine that psychics using radio informants had been ahead of the technological curve, using it when radio transmitters were "high tech" that the average joe wouldn't know about. Couldn't a tester be theoretically unable to discover the source of information?

[Czarcasm]

No one will ever get to take the shot at the million on an even playing field.
God himself would never be allowed to take the test (Unless he Forced it) :)
That is my true belief, but I'm counting on you guys to prove me wrong. I don't always have to be right :)
:cool::cool:If this is your entry for membership in the National Non Sequitur Society, I think you've got a good chance.
To get back to the subject at hand, The Professor: Do you think that the MDC could be won through trickery?

[Dan O.]

Oooh! Good news for the people who can do that. There's an easy million waiting for them. Boy, do I envy them.

Oh, wait... is this one of those techniques that would win the Million Dollar Challenge, but unfortunately, knowing it also makes you too sexy to apply?

You haven't got a clue what I am talking about have you? You might be interested to know that I first learned about TRS techniques from a respected scientific journal. The top hit from Google says it "promises medical breakthroughs" and the 6th links refer to "wireless broadband" in an environment that is hostile to EM transmissions.

[ReligionStudent]

Hey I thought people might be interested on this thread at the Hall of Maat
http://www.hallofmaat.com/read.php?3,493804

[0m3g4]

Hey I thought people might be interested on this thread at the Hall of Maat
http://www.hallofmaat.com/read.php?3,493804

After reading a whole page about dogs and cats over there, I lost interest. Nothing to see there. :)

[EHocking]

No one will ever get to take the shot at the million on an even playing field.
God himself would never be allowed to take the test (Unless he Forced it) :)
That is my true belief, but I'm counting on you guys to prove me wrong. I don't always have to be right :)
:cool::cool:As usual, belief flies in the face of evidence.

The 166 threads (http://forums.randi.org/forumdisplay.php?f=43)documenting Challenges and protocols to date are evidence that you are incorrect.

All applicants that filled out the application forms correctly and abided by the Challenge Rules were accepted (allowed to take the test).

A number successfully negotiated protocols - there's your level playing field. The applicant's and JREF's interests are equally represented once a protocol is negotiation that is satisfactory for each of the two parties involved in each MDC.

[Thabiguy]

You haven't got a clue what I am talking about have you? You might be interested to know that I first learned about TRS techniques from a respected scientific journal. The top hit from Google says it "promises medical breakthroughs" and the 6th links refer to "wireless broadband" in an environment that is hostile to EM transmissions.

Indeed, I have no idea what you meant by TRS. That could refer to a dozen different things from time-resolved spectrography to time reversal signal processing. If you want to be more specific about that, I suggest a different section of the forum, like the Science section.

However, what I was reacting to was not your cryptic references. It was the on-topic part of your post: the claim there's no need to use high-tech cheats to win the MDC, when your body is all you need.

And I repeat that those who can do that have an easy million waiting for them, unless it's one of those techniques that would work, but for some strange reason nobody who knows them ever bothers to snatch the million.

I hope you understand now.

[Dan O.]

However, what I was reacting to was not your cryptic references. It was the on-topic part of your post: the claim there's no need to use high-tech cheats to win the MDC, when your body is all you need.

See how easy it was for me to trick you into thinking I wasn't talking about using high tech. I only said: "your body is all you need to detect the energy".

[Thabiguy]

See how easy it was for me to trick you into thinking I wasn't talking about using high tech. I only said: "your body is all you need to detect the energy".

Dan O., I have already known for quite a while that your hobby is to deliberately make statements as nebulous and ambiguous as possible, then wait for somebody to react, so that you can jump around chanting, "Haha, my post says something else than you thought it said, I tricked you, I am intellectually superior!" I've seen you do it again and again. It is an annoying kind of trolling.

I fully knew and expected that this was once again what you were aiming for when you made that post. What I did was refuse to play along with this childish game. If you deliberately formulate your posts in order to be misunderstood, then it's your problem, not mine.

I am not interested in your puzzles, and I reject your hidden meanings. You wrote, "why bother with high-tech cheats". This implies that high-tech is not necessary. This is an on-topic claim, and so I reacted to it.

If that's not what you meant to say, well, then maybe you should express yourself clearer next time. And if you deliberately don't want to express yourself clearly, well, then maybe you want to take your annoying semantic games elsewhere and stop derailing this thread.

[Azrael 5]

People come on! We don't need to fight amongst ourselves,we have Jim and The Prof for that. :)

[The Professor]

Yes, by all means DON"T analyze each other when the ENEMIES are circling the camp :)
Both of us :)

[Azrael 5]

Yes, by all means DON"T analyze each other when the ENEMIES are circling the camp :)
Both of us :)
Enemies!! That's funny.You've borrowed Jim's spelling book again? What you mean is enemas,surely.:)

[William Smith]

People come on! We don't need to fight amongst ourselves,we have Jim and The Prof for that. :)

Yes, by all means DON"T analyze each other when the ENEMIES are circling the camp :)
Both of us :)

Enemies!! That's funny.You've borrowed Jim's spelling book again? What you mean is enemas,surely.:)

I do not serve as a mod team member nor do I have any powers besides presenting arguments. But seriously:

Get a room, you two. Or set up a boxing match and then get a room. Your bickering is annoying and it does regularly stray away from the threads.

Could you at least try to age it up a bit?

(Granted, not a very strong argument but sufficient to illustrate the point.)



On topic: Yes, in theory the challenge could be won through trickery. As well as in theory Azrael 5 and The Professor could behave like adults when they are in public.

[Dan O.]

Dan O., I have already known for quite a while that your hobby is to deliberately make statements as nebulous and ambiguous as possible, then wait for somebody to react, so that you can jump around chanting, "Haha, my post says something else than you thought it said, I tricked you, I am intellectually superior!" I've seen you do it again and again. It is an annoying kind of trolling.

You are the one that chose to attack my post. If you can't figure it out maybe you should let someone else try. I wasn't trolling and I am offended that you are calling my posts trolls.

[Kevin_Lowe]

You are the one that chose to attack my post. If you can't figure it out maybe you should let someone else try. I wasn't trolling and I am offended that you are calling my posts trolls.

The fact that Dan admits his posts need to be "figured out", as opposed to plainly stating their point, confirms that his goal in posting is not to communicate anything useful but rather to provoke responses that feed his ego.

I suggest simply not feeding the troll. Either he'll make his point clearly (unlikely but possible) or get bored and find another thread to troll.

[Thabiguy]

Indeed, let's get back on topic. And I'll offer another aspect of the topic to consider:

What if you found out an incredible kind of trickery (perhaps a new scientific discovery) that would allow to win the MDC?

Would you tell JREF? Would you tell it someone else, or perhaps publish it? Or would you use it to grab the million?

What would most people do? And what is the "right" thing to do?

Or, let's say that someone actually wins the MDC, and then, amidst all the flurry, admits to using trickery to win.

What would you think of that? How do you think the public would react? Do you think the winner would have to give the million back because of the protocol breach, or would it be theirs to keep?

Your thoughts?

[Cuddles]

How do you think the public would react?

The public would mostly not care, or even notice, apart from the few who simply claim that it was really paranormal and now they are just trying to cover it up.

Do you think the winner would have to give the million back because of the protocol breach, or would it be theirs to keep?

As has been said plenty of times by the JREF, no. Once the protocol is agreed, it is irrelevant how you actually do what you claim to do. If you claim to be able to find hidden metal and the protocol doesn't forbid the use of a metal detector, using one still wins you a million dollars.

[Thabiguy]

As has been said plenty of times by the JREF, no. Once the protocol is agreed, it is irrelevant how you actually do what you claim to do. If you claim to be able to find hidden metal and the protocol doesn't forbid the use of a metal detector, using one still wins you a million dollars.

Yes, if you do what you do according to the protocol, sure.

But, protocols usually do forbid trickery, by including a rule such as "no cheating or trickery is allowed". So the question is: if a winner admits that he had used trickery and thus not followed the protocol, what would the consequences be?

[0m3g4]

Yes, if you do what you do according to the protocol, sure.

But, protocols usually do forbid trickery, by including a rule such as "no cheating or trickery is allowed". So the question is: if a winner admits that he had used trickery and thus not followed the protocol, what would the consequences be?
The first consequence would be, that I'd call him an idiot for not keeping his mouth shut. :boggled:

[Dan O.]

The fact that Dan admits his posts need to be "figured out", as opposed to plainly stating their point, confirms that his goal in posting is not to communicate anything useful but rather to provoke responses that feed his ego.

I suggest simply not feeding the troll. Either he'll make his point clearly (unlikely but possible) or get bored and find another thread to troll.

If I'm going to be facing hostile posters in this thread, I'll take my cheat and leave. You can go back and play with your hidden receivers and try to figure out how to sneak them past the JREF examiners. You aren't going to succeed since that's the sort of thing they have been watching for in past preliminary challenges. Maybe someone else will be smart enough to also come up with this cheat and enlighten you with their wisdom. I don't know why they would bother though.

[Cavemonster]

I believe the language of the contracts involved is such that it would be considered fraud to present a claim as paranormal that was actually driven by unseen, fully explainable technology. So keeping the money if you admit to your trick is out of the question.

It would however, probably be a great publicity stunt for a talented illusionist.

[petre]

If I'm going to be facing hostile posters in this thread, I'll take my cheat and leave. You can go back and play with your hidden receivers and try to figure out how to sneak them past the JREF examiners. You aren't going to succeed since that's the sort of thing they have been watching for in past preliminary challenges. Maybe someone else will be smart enough to also come up with this cheat and enlighten you with their wisdom. I don't know why they would bother though.

I'm really uncertain why you were bothering with it in the first place. A clever cheat that JREF would catch anyway. Seems about the exact opposite of the topic (a trick that could beat the challenge).

[Rodibidably]

Back on topic...

The more i think about it, the more I believe it's possible (for a trick to "beat" the MDC).
I'm not sure who, or what trick specifically, but it seems that somebody who put the time and effort (and $) into "tricking Randi" could get a protocol designed in such a way as to leave themselves one loophole.

The way I think it could work would be a very talented magician (Penn, Teller, Banachek, etc) working with a young (i.e. UNKNOWN) protege.
The protege works with the magician to determine the method they want to use.
The protege then applies to the MDC, and intentionally try to "act like a loony" in order to get the JREF to "give in" to some protocol demand. In reading 40-50 challenge threads so far, it seems that the more loony somebody acts, the more likely the protocol is to be a bit loose (which could be because the JREF staff assume the people are too stupid to pull anything "good" off, or it could be an attempt to "humor" the applicant and shut them up).
If the protege can not get the protocol set-up in a manner they see fit, they can act even more "loony" and bail...
Or once the protocol is agreed upon, the magician and the protege work together to perfect the "trick".

If they fail, no biggie, the protege was an unknown anyways...
If they win, the magician admits involvement and has bragging rights for the rest of their life in the magic community

This could also work with a fraud like Uri Geller, John Edward, Sylvia Brown, etc, although I am not convinced any of them is talented enough to pull it off.
But in the case of them, if the protege wins the MDC, the person pulling the strings then goes to the media and can say "see Randi was wrong about [insert woo here], so he was wrong about me too, I'm genuine".

Honestly, I'm just surprised nobody has tried it before now (at least that we know of).

[Dan O.]

How is JREF going to catch my cheat? It's the hidden radio transmitters and receivers that they are looking for. My cheat doesn't require the applicant to take any foreign objects into the challenge so there is nothing to catch in pre-screening. As far as they know, this is just another applicant with a claim that they can communicate through paranormal means.

Of course, to accomplish the communications, there needs to also be a sender that will also have to pass the JREF screening. Fortunately this cheat works both ways so that will not be a problem.

[Rodibidably]

How is JREF going to catch my cheat? It's the hidden radio transmitters and receivers that they are looking for. My cheat doesn't require the applicant to take any foreign objects into the challenge so there is nothing to catch in pre-screening. As far as they know, this is just another applicant with a claim that they can communicate through paranormal means.

Of course, to accomplish the communications, there needs to also be a sender that will also have to pass the JREF screening. Fortunately this cheat works both ways so that will not be a problem.
Edited for civility
When you have a check in your hand from Randi, then talk all you want.
Edited for civility.

[Thabiguy]

If I'm going to be facing hostile posters in this thread, I'll take my cheat and leave.

Oh no! :yikes:

[The Professor]

Indeed, let's get back on topic. And I'll offer another aspect of the topic to consider:

What if you found out an incredible kind of trickery (perhaps a new scientific discovery) that would allow to win the MDC?

Would you tell JREF? Would you tell it someone else, or perhaps publish it? Or would you use it to grab the million?

What would most people do? And what is the "right" thing to do?

Or, let's say that someone actually wins the MDC, and then, amidst all the flurry, admits to using trickery to win.

What would you think of that? How do you think the public would react? Do you think the winner would have to give the million back because of the protocol breach, or would it be theirs to keep?

Your thoughts?

Let's say the guy from The Prestige ( Movie story line) signed up for the JREF MDC ... Would he get the cash?

[Czarcasm]

Let's say the guy from The Prestige ( Movie story line) signed up for the JREF MDC ... Would he get the cash?Yes, as would The Phantom Stranger, Doctor Strange, Merlin and many other fictional characters.

[RoboTimbo]

Yes, as would The Phantom Stranger, Doctor Strange, Merlin and many other fictional characters.


TP knows those aren't real characters, right? I thought we'd already agreed that ONLY a trick would win the MDC since nobody has verifiably demonstrated paranormal phenomena under controlled conditions.

OOOOOH!! Now I understand TP's concern that A TRICK would be able to beat the MDC.

[Careyp74]

I could imagine a scenario where the group from "Oceans 11" -I know it is just a story- comes up with a plot to win the challenge.

They set up a psychic protocal of picking objects and matching them with owners. then they go to each person's house that has anything remotely to do with JREF, and spraying a dye on everything that person owns while everyone is asleep. Now each person would get a different color invisible dye, one that can only be seen with special contact lenses.

At the test, it would be easy to see the hands of someone, while wearing the special contacts and then match the color dye on that persons hands to the object that also has that dye color on it.

[petre]

I could imagine a scenario where the group from "Oceans 11" -I know it is just a story- comes up with a plot to win the challenge.

They set up a psychic protocal of picking objects and matching them with owners. then they go to each person's house that has anything remotely to do with JREF, and spraying a dye on everything that person owns while everyone is asleep. Now each person would get a different color invisible dye, one that can only be seen with special contact lenses.

At the test, it would be easy to see the hands of someone, while wearing the special contacts and then match the color dye on that persons hands to the object that also has that dye color on it.

Yup, it's just those kind of scenarios that the preliminary test is intended to prevent. A passed preliminary would "wake them up" as it were, and allow them to take counter-measures against likely non-paranormal means of passing the final challenge. I've considered making my own attempt, but I tend to be thwarted by two things:
1. I'd have to agree in writing not to attempt any trickery, and I'm not fond of violating contract law (even if I was just going to give all the money back anyway).
2. Every time I started writing up a protocol, it kept looking really obvious (to me) what the plan was. I kept finding ways to beat the trick in the final challenge that I couldn't block with a protocol without pointing a big red finger at the trick in the first place.

So, I gave up and decided when a real paranormalist comes along I'll just try to help them win the challenge and call it good.

[Father Dagon]

For instance, I KNOW that the Penn and Teller bullet catch is a trick (It's an unbelievably good trick, but it's a trick non-the-less). I've seen them do it at the Rio, and there is no *********** way that the two of them fire real, loaded gun with real bullets at each other's faces.
But I can't prove it's a trick, because I don't know how it is done.And you really don't want to. It's like watching a Jackie Chan chop sockey-flick while thinking of real combat. You must suspend disbelief and let yourself be seduced.

Also: If the challenger passes the test, then the inevitable calls for an encore will rise. So pulling off something nigh-impossible twice would be really hard.(1) Even moreso if the security is tighter on the second test.(2)1: 1/n * 1/n = 1/n2

2: 1/n * 1/n+x = 1/n2+nx

[Ron_Tomkins]

Truth be told is, we can fictionalize and theorize all we want but every second that goes by I become more and more skeptical that ANYONE at all will beat then challenge. Whether there actually is someone who has paranormal powers, or someone who recurred to really clever trickery.

It's almost as if the challenge wasn't actually designed to test someone with paranormal powers, but to demonstrate and remind us that to this day there really is no serious evidene at all of the existence of something we can consider "paranormal".

Science is waiting for the next big discovery. The bigger and weirder, the more interesting. When it comes, it will come. If the challenge went on forever, maybe it would be discovered through someone winning the million and providing us with a new paradigm shift. But the way things have been happening, it's very very unlikely.

[Tetris]

The problem with the "no cheating or trickery" part of the protocol is that if you pass, then that is proof you used cheating or trickery, so you don't pass.

[William Smith]

The problem with the "no cheating or trickery" part of the protocol is that if you pass, then that is proof you used cheating or trickery, so you don't pass.

Wrong.

If you comply with the success criteria established in the protocol, you win the Prize.

[GreyICE]

If I'm going to be facing hostile posters in this thread, I'll take my cheat and leave. You can go back and play with your hidden receivers and try to figure out how to sneak them past the JREF examiners. You aren't going to succeed since that's the sort of thing they have been watching for in past preliminary challenges. Maybe someone else will be smart enough to also come up with this cheat and enlighten you with their wisdom. I don't know why they would bother though.

Oh no, please don't leave! There's so many reasons for you to stay. Like... um...

give me a little here...

[The Professor]

The problem with the "no cheating or trickery" part of the protocol is that if you pass, then that is proof you used cheating or trickery, so you don't pass.

Tetris is right!

One of the guys who actually got to be tested had his test STOPED in the middle so they could check to see if he'd gotten anything right, so they could accuse him of cheating if he did. :)
Just Crazy One Sided thinking!

[gdnp]

Tetris is right!



No, you are both wrong. Agree on a protocol with the JREF, fulfill the protocol requirements for the preliminary challenge, repeat for the million dollar challenge, collect $1 million dollars.

Of course, that requires that the challenger submit a protocol, something that some never get around to doing. In fact, some never even make a real claim.

I believe that the MDC could be won with a trick, although I do not think it likely.

[William Smith]

Tetris is right!

One of the guys who actually got to be tested had his test STOPED in the middle so they could check to see if he'd gotten anything right, so they could accuse him of cheating if he did. :)
Just Crazy One Sided thinking!

Which test would that be?

[not daSkeptic]

Tetris is right!

No, Tetris is dead wrong. Passing the test proves nothing other than no scientific explanation was presented at that point in time. It says nothing about whether such an explanation does or does not exist.

[Pantaz]

Which test would that be?

Just more exaggerations by TP. Here is the context:
...snip...
After E. wrote a word, Matt radioed back upstairs "Word received." The test followed this sequence throughout with a minor adjustment after the first word or two.

After the first three words had been sent, we requested a brief pause so Jerry could bring them to Dennis on the stairs. Matt C. brought Dennis the first 3 words received by E. Dennis examined both short lists, and sent word upstairs with Jerry that we should proceed. This was our early warning system to alert us in case we were being deceived. None of the first three words matched, so we suspected no cheating at that point, and continued until all twenty words had been transmitted.
...snip...

[The Professor]

Keep in mind, this is theoretical.

Could Derren Brown, Penn, Teller, Banachek, etc do a good enough job of cold reading, or some other trick that Randi could not figure out how to make a protocol to stop, and take Randi's million?

I'm not saying Randi would be fooled and think they were using some power, but do you think somebody could tell Randi it's here is what I'm going to do (not telling Randi how they would do it, just what they would appear to be doing) where Randi could not spot the trick and determine a way to prevent the person from using it.

It does not even have to be cold reading (although that's the first thing that comes to my mind), it could be any trick or illusion, where the person doing it, would be able to "beat" Randi.

What are your thoughts, could it be done (following the JREF protocols), what do you think would be the easiest way (my guess is some form of cold reading), and can you think of a particular magician (or anybody else, doesn't have to be a magician) that could pull it of?

I am POSITIVE that there are things that THE AMAZING RANDI can NOT figure out. So to answer your question. YES .... Randi can be beaten!
:cool::cool:

[Czarcasm]

I am POSITIVE that there are things that THE AMAZING RANDI can NOT figure out. So to answer your question. YES .... Randi can be beaten!
:cool::cool:Maybe..but not by you.
First, you just aren't good enough.
Second, even if you were able to pull it off, one of the stipulations is that trickery not be used. You would be totally incapable of not boasting about tricking Mr. Randi on all the message boards that still allow you to post.

[RoboTimbo]

I am POSITIVE that there are things that THE AMAZING RANDI can NOT figure out. So to answer your question. YES .... Randi can be beaten!
:cool::cool:

I'm POSITIVE that you aren't the one who can do it. So, to answer the question that everyone already knows the answer to, NO .....David Koenig can't trick Randi!
:):)

Or most third graders, come to think of it.

[Pantaz]

I am POSITIVE that there are things that THE AMAZING RANDI can NOT figure out. So to answer your question. YES .... Randi can be beaten!

I believe James Randi himself would admit that he can be fooled. However, the OP asks if Randi's Challenge could be beaten with a "trick". That's a whole different thing. The applicant would have to fool several people just during protocol negotiations. The "trick" would then have to get past the people administering the preliminary test. Of course, before any of that, the applicant would have had to trick the required academic witness. (Okay, that one's done easily enough.)

In my opinion, could it happen? Statistically, yes. Practically, no.

[Toptomcat]

In terms of a specific method, it seems to me we're getting overly hung up over the radio-tooth dodge. It's omnidirectional and rather easy to detect as implanted EM tomfoolery goes. Here's something that might work, though.
Implant an infrared laser into a handy place and make a claim for thermokinesis, the ability to raise the temperature of a visible object without touching it. Avoiding detection doesn't seem to be an insurmountable engineering challenge... upon doing some brief reading I'm not sure a laser *has* to use ferromagnetic materials at all, which leaves out any of the metal-detecting methods. Anyone with a metal joint replacement is ineligible for an MRI. That leaves a CT scan, which is X-ray based...so you'd have to disguise it as a bone or mount it in one...again, not an insurmountable challenge.

How would that work, d'you think?

[Czarcasm]

Not too well at all, because you are discussing it on this message board, and your words will be read by those who do the testing.

[Dan O.]

The testers wouldn't rely on reading a thread such as this to devise their protections against tricks to win the million. If they focused their efforts on finding the implanted laser, they might miss the actual trick.

For any test involving raising temperatures, they are going to employ thermal imaging cameras. Unless you insist on performing the test in a clean-room, the laser light is going to illuminate a trail of dust pointing straight back to the laser.