Truther predictions that have come true?

[1337m4n]

When has a Truther ever predicted something that has come true?


Okay, maybe that's a bad question. After all, even the world's most innacurate shooter will eventually hit a target given unlimited time and ammunition. Chances are some Truther predictions will come true by virtue of sheer dumb luck.

So a better question is: what is the approximate ratio of successful Truther predictions to total Truther predictions?

[Horatius]

I addressed a similar issue earlier this week:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=4085026#post4085026


When your movement has to emulate Sylvia Fricken' Browne to have any record of success, it's time to fold the tent....

[1337m4n]

We'll take the creation of the ratio one step at a time. Starting with this, (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=124749) we've got 0/1.

[Brainache]

JihadJane said that Truthers predicted the current financial crisis in the US.

I'm sure it must be true. She didn't actually offer any evidence, but evidence is for all those loser duhbunkers...

[TheLoneBedouin]

JihadJane said that Truthers predicted the current financial crisis in the US.

I'm sure it must be true. She didn't actually offer any evidence, but evidence is for all those loser duhbunkers...

Well, you obviously know nothing about "truthers". The infamous "Money Masters" movie predicted a depression as early as 1990. 9/11 oriented sites have been predicting not only a depression, but total economic collapse, e.g. sott.net Economic Commentary series.

My Predictions w/ estimated probability:

1) McCain will win the election (80%).

2) McCain will die in office (55%).

3) New attack on America using nuclear weapons (100%).

4) Israel will be outed as the perps behind 9/11 (possibly by way of the increasingly independent Russia) (100%)

5) Overt Fascism in America (similiar to what New Orleans, but national-level) (100%)

6) Attack on Iran (90%).

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, eventual return to bartering system (100%)

8) World-wide Fascism under guise of increasing terrorist threat (100%)

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (100%)

10) Complete re-structuring of society (100%)


I estimate that by 5 years my total accuracy rating will be no less than 90%. I would be interested if a debunker could make an alternate set of predictions so we can compare the accuracy (again my time frame is only 5 years).

[defaultdotxbe]

Well, you obviously know nothing about "truthers". The infamous "Money Masters" movie predicted a depression as early as 1990. 9/11 oriented sites have been predicting not only a depression, but total economic collapse, e.g. sott.net Economic Commentary series.
predicting a depression is like predicting that someone will die, of course its going to happen, so the prediction is worthless without a clear timeframe and causes, people have been predicting depression on the horizon pretty much since the last depression, but that doesnt mean they predicted the current financial situation any more than if someone tells you every single day "your going to die" then on the day you actually do die claim they had been predicting it for 40 years

[PhantomWolf]

Well over the years I have managed to rank up a 80% prediction rate so I'm going to post my own for the next 5 years.

Well, you obviously know nothing about "truthers". The infamous "Money Masters" movie predicted a depression as early as 1990. 9/11 oriented sites have been predicting not only a depression, but total economic collapse, e.g. sott.net Economic Commentary series.

Wow, since the 90's? I guess if you keep predicting something that is cyclic long enough it might happen. Perhaps I can start predicting that there'll be a High Tide and a Low tide today. How about a prediction that the sun will rise in the east and set in the west?

1) McCain will win the election (80%).

1) McCain will not win the 2008 US election, nor 2012.

2) McCain will die in office (55%).

2) Obama won't die in office, there will be a lot of people that dislike him though and even some that think he should be assassinated.

3) New attack on America using nuclear weapons (100%).

3) There will be several major terrorist attacks on US assets, but these will not be in the US and will not be with Nuclear weapons.

4) Israel will be outed as the perps behind 9/11 (possibly by way of the increasingly independent Russia) (100%)

4) Iran will continue to claim that Israel was behind 9/11 despite Al Qaeda claiming otherwise. The leadership of AQ will release more speeches claiming responsibility, The Truth Movement will continue to ignore them.

5) KSM will plead Guilty to planning and conducting 9/11 in order to avoid a death sentence and will be sentenced to Life Imprisonment. The Truth Movement will refuse to accept his guilt claiming he was a patsy tortured into pleading guilty, but won't do anything to see that he is fairly retried or that his conviction is over turned.

5) Overt Fascism in America (similiar to what New Orleans, but national-level) (100%)

6) Life in the US will continue on without military take over or tanks rolling down the streets. Truthers, Anarchists and other loons will continue to claim that Martial Law is coming and is just around the corner.

6) Attack on Iran (90%).

7) Iran will not be attacked by the US.

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, eventual return to bartering system (100%)

8) While the Economic of the world will be in recession for the next year, it will start to pick up again by the end of 2009 on the back of a strengthening Greenback and falling oil prices. The world economy will continue to regain strength from them on though many doomsayers will claim that it can't last and that oil is running out.

8) World-wide Fascism under guise of increasing terrorist threat (100%)

9) While some call for closer world economic trade and free trade deals, the US will remain a supporter of tariffs and protection of its markets meaning that things will stay pretty much as they are. China will do a number of trade deals with other countries, but still will not change its human rights policies. Fascism will not go world-wide, in fact most western countries will move towards the left and more liberal policies.

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (100%)

10) Other than a few annual meteor showers which will do no damage, there will be no large impacts from comets or meteors. There will however be at least one 6+ earthquake in Japan, a 7+ on the Pacific Rim, and a volcanic eruption in Europe most years. None of these things will lead to world wide natural disasters though. Forest Fires in both the US and Australia will take several lives each year, but again will not result in worldwide disaster.

10) Complete re-structuring of society (100%)

11) Society will carry on as it has for the last 100 years unabated. Anarchists and other loons will continue to decry the end of civilisation, but the collapse of society will refuse to happen for them.

I estimate that by 5 years my total accuracy rating will be no less than 90%. I would be interested if a debunker could make an alternate set of predictions so we can compare the accuracy (again my time frame is only 5 years).

I estimate that my accuracy at over 90% based on the next 10 years.

[SDC]

Just wait a minute there. Volcanic eruption in Europe; please be a little more specific. Vesuvius? A Greek island? the Isle of Dogs? Minsk? Where?

[Tin Foil Timothy]

4) Iran will continue to claim that Israel was behind 9/11 despite Al Qaeda claiming otherwise. The leadership of AQ will release more speeches claiming responsibility, The Truth Movement will continue to ignore them.

Considering that Al-Qaeda is a movement and is not a structured organisation then I can't really see how it has a 'leadership'.




7) Iran will not be attacked by the US.

I agree. I think Israel will be the one to initiate an attack. The mainstream media has being priming us for that for a long time now. The erroneous "Wipe Israel off the Map" has been a particularly overused piece of propaganda.

And it makes sense. Since the Iraq invasion and occupation based upon lies there isn't the political will in the US for it to launch an attack on Iran.

I do suspect that when Israel does Attack Iran, the US will offer undying support and military assistence



8) While the Economic of the world will be in recession for the next year, it will start to pick up again by the end of 2009 on the back of a strengthening Greenback and falling oil prices.

I think it will last longer than that


The world economy will continue to regain strength from them on though many doomsayers will claim that it can't last and that oil is running out.

There's enough oil for many decades yet. Who get's to profit out of it though is a different matter.



9).... Fascism will not go world-wide, in fact most western countries will move towards the left and more liberal policies.

Well in the UK the political parties have all merged into a right wing area. I think that's true elsewhere so I would disagree




11) Society will carry on as it has for the last 100 years unabated. Anarchists and other loons will continue to decry the end of civilisation, but the collapse of society will refuse to happen for them.


The last 100 years? At least 2 more World Wars then. Damn, I was only expecting at least one more. <sigh>

[TheLoneBedouin]

predicting a depression is like predicting that someone will die, of course its going to happen, so the prediction is worthless without a clear timeframe and causes, people have been predicting depression on the horizon pretty much since the last depression, but that doesnt mean they predicted the current financial situation any more than if someone tells you every single day "your going to die" then on the day you actually do die claim they had been predicting it for 40 years
Well, they were predicting someting closer to "economic collapse" than a typical depression and they gave a specific time frame of "early 21st century". I'm not sure, but I think most economists agree that depressions are avoidable, while recessions are a natural part of the "business cycle".

Thanks PhantomWolf for participating.

Regarding your third prediction- do you think that any of these major attacks on US military bases and territories will be equal to or near the scope of the 9/11 attacks, and if not, do you think that the reason is because AQ is losing power and numbers? Also, will the targets be military, civilian, or both?

I certainly agree with you on #4 that AQ will continue to claim resoponsibility, maybe even throwing in a few adament denials of Israeli involvement. However, your prediction is wrong simply because the truth movement has not ignored these confessions- they assert that these confessions are either genuine (which would mean AQ is an "asset" of some foreign power) or staged. Whether or not you agree with these assertions, the TM has not ignored the tapes.

On point 6, I did not say "tanks would be rolling down the streets"- I specifically stated the circumstances would be similar to those of New Orleans.

On point 9, you suggest that Western countries will move towards more liberal policies. In your opinion, will the Patriot Act, and similar policies in other nations, be repealed?

As for the occurance of "annual meteor showers", I'll let the NEO animations speak for themselves:

Near Earth Objects Detected in 2002 (http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/Animations/EarthRideSmall.gif)

Near Earth Objects Detected in 2008 (http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/Animations/EarthRide2008.gif)

[Tin Foil Timothy]

When has a Truther ever predicted something that has come true?


Okay, maybe that's a bad question. After all, even the world's most innacurate shooter will eventually hit a target given unlimited time and ammunition. Chances are some Truther predictions will come true by virtue of sheer dumb luck.

So a better question is: what is the approximate ratio of successful Truther predictions to total Truther predictions?

Awful lot of bigotry in this forum isn't there? Why not replace the word Truther with Jew? Huh?


When has a Jew ever predicted something that has come true?

Okay, maybe that's a bad question. After all, even the world's most innacurate shooter will eventually hit a target given unlimited time and ammunition. Chances are some Jew predictions will come true by virtue of sheer dumb luck.

So a better question is: what is the approximate ratio of successful Jew predictions to total Jew predictions?


See what I mean. Not very nice is it?


Has it ever occurred to you that some people simply want to find the truth? And just why is wanting to the find the truth a bad thing?

Don't YOU want to find the truth? Oh wait! You already know the truth. You've no need for questions as you've already got all the answers.

Sure people come up with all sorts of outlandish theories which can be debunked. One of the biggest is the theory that Iraq had WMDs. And that was debunked big style wasn't it?

If being a truther is someone wanting to find the truth then I stand guilty as charged. And I'm proud of it. Much better than blindly believing stuff whether it comes from the government, establishment or independent sources.

[dudalb]

JihadJane said that Truthers predicted the current financial crisis in the US.

I'm sure it must be true. She didn't actually offer any evidence, but evidence is for all those loser duhbunkers...

Jihad Jane calls it "political Literacy".
What makes Jane is interesting are the ways she has found to ignore actual evidence. Her whole "all WTC evidence has been contaminated and is therefore useless" is just mind boggling.

[dudalb]

Has it ever occurred to you that some people simply want to find the truth? And just why is wanting to the find the truth a bad thing?

Don't YOU want to find the truth? Oh wait! You already know the truth. You've no need for questions as you've already got all the answers.

Sure people come up with all sorts of outlandish theories which can be debunked. One of the biggest is the theory that Iraq had WMDs. And that was debunked big style wasn't it?

If being a truther is someone wanting to find the truth then I stand guilty as charged. And I'm proud of it. Much better than blindly believing stuff whether it comes from the government, establishment or independent sources.

Then you are in a very small minority in the Truther community. because 99% of them have made up their minds that 9/11 is a inside job, and this is not based on evidence but sheer emotional reasons.

[defaultdotxbe]

Just wait a minute there. Volcanic eruption in Europe; please be a little more specific. Vesuvius? A Greek island? the Isle of Dogs? Minsk? Where?
well theres always stromboli and etna

[Reality Believer]

I heard one today that, refreshingly, will only take a week to play out:

First contact on October 14th. :eek:

http://www.realufos.net/2008/09/october-14-2008-ufo-message-update.html

Popcorn anyone? :popcorn1

[Travis]

Well, you obviously know nothing about "truthers". The infamous "Money Masters" movie predicted a depression as early as 1990. 9/11 oriented sites have been predicting not only a depression, but total economic collapse, e.g. sott.net Economic Commentary series.

My Predictions w/ estimated probability:

1) McCain will win the election (80%).

2) McCain will die in office (55%).

3) New attack on America using nuclear weapons (100%).

4) Israel will be outed as the perps behind 9/11 (possibly by way of the increasingly independent Russia) (100%)

5) Overt Fascism in America (similar to what New Orleans, but national-level) (100%)

6) Attack on Iran (90%).

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, eventual return to bartering system (100%)

8) World-wide Fascism under guise of increasing terrorist threat (100%)

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (100%)

10) Complete re-structuring of society (100%)


I estimate that by 5 years my total accuracy rating will be no less than 90%. I would be interested if a debunker could make an alternate set of predictions so we can compare the accuracy (again my time frame is only 5 years).

You either lead a terrible life filled with fear and anxiety or you are full of crap.


Let's look at some reasonable probabilities.

1) McCain will win the election (20%).

2) McCain will die in office (05%).

3) New attack on America using nuclear weapons (01%).

4) Israel will be outed as the perps behind 9/11 (possibly by way of the increasingly independent Russia) (0%)

5) Overt Fascism in America (similar to what New Orleans, but national-level) (02%)

6) Attack on Iran (by the USA) (10%).

7) Complete economic collapse (08%) complete debasement of fiat currency (04%) eventual return to bartering system (01%)

8) World-wide Fascism under guise of increasing terrorist threat (02%)

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (01%)

10) Complete re-structuring of society (03%)

[Cl1mh4224rd]

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (100%)


Wow, wtf? No, seriously... Wtf?

[Dave Rogers]

Awful lot of bigotry in this forum isn't there? Why not replace the word Truther with Jew? Huh?

Because being a truther is a choice, and being a Jew isn't. Because being a truther implies having a specific set of views, and being a Jew doesn't. Because a prediction can be defined as a truther prediction if it's based on a belief system in which it is assumed without proof that 9/11 was not perpetrated by al-Qaeda, whereas a prediction made by a Jew may be based on any set of assumptions whatsoever, the term "Jew" being a statement of ethnicity rather than opinion. Therefore, there is no equivalence between the two.

Thank you for your Godwin's law invocation. According to the strong form of the law, further rational discourse is now impossible.

Dave

[DC]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGtOFudmHG8

:rolleyes:

[Plantfoam]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGtOFudmHG8

:rolleyes:

He said that there will be another terrorist attack (a given), and that the government will be the perpetrators (before he had any evidence!). He covered a plethora of possible targets, including the WTC (which had already been attacked once).

It's shotgun style predicting based on historical precedence. It's hardly prophetic.

[Plantfoam]

More of AJ's predictions for your reading pleasure:

"This is only the beginning. In the next few years, in this second phase--the period of escalating violence. They're gonna allow limited nuclear exchanges." "There's going to be more. This is only the kickoff." (9/13/01)

"Within 2 years I'm predicting...that you're going to see a suitcase nuke in this country. You're probably going to see a release in a few years of something communicable. & I am predicting that you will see a lot of conventional bombings...in the next year or so." (10/18/01)

"I'm telling you now...there's a very good chance there gonna blow something up overseas or here." "The evidence is all tilting toward...blowing up a building. They're really setting us up for a smallpox attack." Chemical attacks are "almost a guarantee in the next six months or so." (9/26/02)

"They're preparing for new terrorist attacks that are much larger. & they're planning to bring in foreign armies....The U.S. government is going to engage in large terrorist attacks domestically & probably internationally...They may kill millions of Americans." There was going to be a nuclear release in Iraq, an international depression, formation of a world government, probably a nuclear release in Iraq, an international depression, a world government formed. Also, "They may kill millions of Americans." (7/11/02)

[dudalb]

Probablity that The Lone Bedouin will look like a complete fool with his predictions,100%.

[TheLoneBedouin]

Probablity that The Lone Bedouin will look like a complete fool with his predictions,100%.
Lol, we'll see. 1st prediction's coming up next month.
Actually, I only gave McCain 80% because there is a signifigant chance that Bush will become dictator, not because Obama will win. See the Naomi Wolf (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9PulYpjGs) interview- the signs of fascism are as clear as day...

[Travis]

Lol, we'll see. 1st prediction's coming up next month.
Actually, I only gave McCain 80% because there is a signifigant chance that Bush will become dictator, not because Obama will win. See the Naomi Wolf (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW9PulYpjGs) interview- the signs of fascism are as clear as day...

...if you're looking at the clear sky through a window covered in mud.


Why the hell would Bush want to be a dictator? Being a dictator is hard work and as it is now he gets to retire and move back to Texas in a few months.

[Pardalis]

Wow, wtf? No, seriously... Wtf?

Yep, the Lone Bedouin has definitely come out as a real kook this time.

I wonder if he thinks he's made a good impression with that post. More like a credibility suicide.

ETA: Also, need I point this out, that last asteroid BS bit just shows that LB really isn't just a truther, but he just wants things to go bad one way or the other.

[Slayhamlet]

Well, you obviously know nothing about "truthers". The infamous "Money Masters" movie predicted a depression as early as 1990. 9/11 oriented sites have been predicting not only a depression, but total economic collapse, e.g. sott.net Economic Commentary series.

My Predictions w/ estimated probability:

1) McCain will win the election (80%).

2) McCain will die in office (55%).

3) New attack on America using nuclear weapons (100%).

4) Israel will be outed as the perps behind 9/11 (possibly by way of the increasingly independent Russia) (100%)

5) Overt Fascism in America (similiar to what New Orleans, but national-level) (100%)

6) Attack on Iran (90%).

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, eventual return to bartering system (100%)

8) World-wide Fascism under guise of increasing terrorist threat (100%)

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (100%)

10) Complete re-structuring of society (100%)


I estimate that by 5 years my total accuracy rating will be no less than 90%. I would be interested if a debunker could make an alternate set of predictions so we can compare the accuracy (again my time frame is only 5 years).

:dl:

Okay, a sane persons predictions for the next 5 years:

1) McCain will not win the election (65%).

2) McCain will not die in office (95%).

3) No new attack on America using nuclear weapons (99.999%).

4) Israel will not be outed as the perps behind 9/11 (possibly by way of the increasingly independent Russia) (100%)

5) No overt Fascism in America (similiar to what New Orleans, but national-level) (99.999%)

6) No attack on Iran by U.S. (95%). No attack on Iran by Israel (70%)

7) No complete economic collapse- no complete debasement of fiat currency, no eventual return to bartering system (99.999%)

8) No world-wide Fascism under guise of increasing terrorist threat (99.999%)

9) No massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (99.999%)

10) No complete re-structuring of society (99.999%)

11.) TheLoneBedouin won't show up here in 5 years to eat crow (99%)

[Jontg]

Awful lot of bigotry in this forum isn't there? Why not replace the word Truther with Jew? Huh?





See what I mean. Not very nice is it?


Has it ever occurred to you that some people simply want to find the truth? And just why is wanting to the find the truth a bad thing?

Don't YOU want to find the truth? Oh wait! You already know the truth. You've no need for questions as you've already got all the answers.

Sure people come up with all sorts of outlandish theories which can be debunked. One of the biggest is the theory that Iraq had WMDs. And that was debunked big style wasn't it?

If being a truther is someone wanting to find the truth then I stand guilty as charged. And I'm proud of it. Much better than blindly believing stuff whether it comes from the government, establishment or independent sources.

:notm

[Drudgewire]

Awful lot of bigotry in this forum isn't there? Why not replace the word Truther with Jew? Huh?


Holy mother of... :boggled:

[abenja1]

Let's not forget how truthers predicted Oct. 1st was martial law day, that the gov't would take away all the guns of citizens after the VT shootings (and after all the shootings preceeding it and after), that the NAU was going to be formed, that the FEMA concentration camps were being established. I can go on and on.

And for the truthers, saying martial law is going to be declared w/o a date is not a prediction, and that goes for anything else. It's a blanket guess. A prediction would be "Martial law is going to happen on so and so."

[Drudgewire]

that the gov't would take away all the guns of citizens after the VT shootings (and after all the shootings preceeding it and after)


Hell, I worried about that one. Took about three minutes of seeing news reports declaring how this proved we needed gun control to turn me from a passive 2nd Amendment supporter who didn't own firearms to a full-blown gun nut.

Well, it made me decide to get a gun "while I still could." Then I fell in love with it and have bought 5 more since. So I guess it's more accurate to say Va. Tech was the springboard for my gun nuttery. :cool:

[roundhead]

Because being a truther is a choice, and being a Jew isn't. Because being a truther implies having a specific set of views, and being a Jew doesn't. Because a prediction can be defined as a truther prediction if it's based on a belief system in which it is assumed without proof that 9/11 was not perpetrated by al-Qaeda, whereas a prediction made by a Jew may be based on any set of assumptions whatsoever, the term "Jew" being a statement of ethnicity rather than opinion. Therefore, there is no equivalence between the two.

Thank you for your Godwin's law invocation. According to the strong form of the law, further rational discourse is now impossible.

Dave


It is assumed by you(and most on here)that 9/11 went down as the Govt told us it did.

It is assumed by me(and most truthers)that it did not go down as the Govt told us.

The Govt has a large advantage(they control most anything to do with those events)testimony, video footage, media coverage, silencing of whistleblowers, appointments of those on commisions, etc.

In spite of these enormous advantages over a common citizen trying merely to get to the bottom of it, the explanations rolled out arent believable, and the very Govt rolling out these "assertions" are proven liars.

[Sword_Of_Truth]

It is assumed by me(and most truthers)that it did not go down as the Govt told us.

Quoted (and emphasis added) for posterity.

Yet another twoofer accidentally says too much.

[Slayhamlet]

It is assumed by you(and most on here)that 9/11 went down as the Govt told us it did.

It is assumed by me(and most truthers)that it did not go down as the Govt told us.

The Govt has a large advantage(they control most anything to do with those events)testimony, video footage, media coverage, silencing of whistleblowers, appointments of those on commisions, etc.

In spite of these enormous advantages over a common citizen trying merely to get to the bottom of it, the explanations rolled out arent believable, and the very Govt rolling out these "assertions" are proven liars.

Nearly all of the major players in the "Truth" Movement are proven liars and incompetents; they have yet to make a single major, significant claim that is correct and contradicts what is already known to have happened; despite having seven years to do so, they have added exactly zero to our understanding of that day. The government in fact does not control anywhere near most anything to do with the events of 9/11. What evidence they do control is spread across multiple agencies, most with a large degree of oversight, containing tens of thousands of government workers who in turn rely in large measure on the expertise of non-government agencies containing countless more people, out of all of which none have admitted any direct knowledge of government complicity in the attacks. If we were to believe you and your movement's insane claims, that's thousands and thousands of people who are in on it. You have lost because you have no evidence of anything, and now you think making excuses will absolve you of that shame? Your entire cause is nothing but a massive fool's errand that takes attention away from real and important political issues.

[DC]

He said that there will be another terrorist attack (a given), and that the government will be the perpetrators (before he had any evidence!). He covered a plethora of possible targets, including the WTC (which had already been attacked once).

It's shotgun style predicting based on historical precedence. It's hardly prophetic.

i thought this is the way he starts his show every day :)

[TheLoneBedouin]

Yep, the Lone Bedouin has definitely come out as a real kook this time.

I wonder if he thinks he's made a good impression with that post. More like a credibility suicide.


The objective of my post was not to create an "impression", but to test a hypothesis. The hypothesis is simple:
Jref members (official conspiracy supporters), self-proclaimed internet "rationalists", subconsciously select and substitute data in the formation of their individual world views (each of which shares common characteristcs, such as anti-conspiracy bias) and thus cannot see large sections of reality even when the signs are as clear as day.

Since predicting the future requires a clear understanding of the present, whoever has the highest accuracy rating in predicting the future has the greatest objectivity.

Actually, your post supports my hypothesis, since you dismiss me without having looked at the evidence. You probably think:

If there really was a substantial cometary impact in the near future, surely scientists would tell us and not some anonymous guy on the internet.

This "logic" fails for several reasons:

1) Many important scientific facts could theoretically be known with our current knowledgebase, but are not. Some data is in obscure journal X, while some is in obscure journal Y. It may be that, scientists, busy "publishing or perishing" simply do not have time to put the pieces together, however, a network of intelligent laymen could do it.

2) Perhaps you aren't paying attention and there are scientists publicaly saying exactly that.


According to astronomers such as Dr. Victor Clube, of Oxford University's Department of Astrophysics, the coming and goings of the Taurid stream should be a source of concern to politicians, planners and anyone who cherishes life on Earth.

A ''catastrophist'', Dr. Clube is one of many astronomers who are convinced that within this celestial procession lie the seeds of mass destruction an Armageddon of biblical proportions. ''The matter requires urgent attention. It is crucial that everyone is woken up to the danger,'' Dr. Clube says.

The chilling scenario envisaged is of Earth and one of the 46,000mph objects in the Taurid stream colliding during one of the orbital crossings.

Dr. Clube says: ''It is analagous to a nuclear war with a megatonnage of the same order and all the effects of nuclear war with debris from the impact causing sunlight to be blocked causing a Dark Age or Ice Age.''


So before you call me "kooky", please familiarize yourself with the works of Victor Clube, Bill Napier, Mike Baillie, John S. Lewis, Laura Knight-Jadczyk, and Immanuel Velikovsky.

[Cl1mh4224rd]

Actually, your post supports my hypothesis, since you dismiss me without having looked at the evidence. You probably think:

If there really was a substantial cometary impact in the near future, surely scientists would tell us and not some anonymous guy on the internet.


That is a baffling tangent. I'd suggest you drop the pseudo-intellectualism and pseudo-psychology. It's pretty transparent.

You made no mention of a conspiracy attached to your cometary impact prediction, therefore we have no need to consider the possibility of a conspiracy in the context of your prediction, as stated.

Basically, you're making **** up. That doesn't over too well around here.

[PhantomWolf]

So before you call me "kooky", please familiarize yourself with the works of ... Immanuel Velikovsky.

You reference Velikovsky and you don't want to be thought of as a Kook? That's like saying, before you call me a nut go and watch Bart Sibrel's A Funny Thing

[ArmillarySphere]

Perhaps it's for contrast? "Before you call me a nut, take a peek at *these* blokes".

Admittedly, compared to the juicy, concentrated nuttiness of Sibrel and Velikovsky, most truthers are only a piece of mouldy walnut in the rear of the kitchen cabinet.

[PhantomWolf]

10) Forest Fires in both the US and Australia will take several lives each year

Thought I'd get the ball rolling quickly here, I mean we're only what, a week into it?

California Fires Kill One, Thousands Flee. (http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/5078334/dead-thousands-flee-fires-erupt-california/)

How are your predictions going TLB?

[TheLoneBedouin]

You reference Velikovsky and you don't want to be thought of as a Kook? That's like saying, before you call me a nut go and watch Bart Sibrel's A Funny Thing
Exactly what I predicted you would say :).
We all know Velikovsky didn't get everything right in his ideas- the other people I referenced have criticized him specifically. But that doesn't mean he didn't get anything right.

Thought I'd get the ball rolling quickly here, I mean we're only what, a week into it?

California Fires Kill One, Thousands Flee.

How are your predictions going TLB?
Fires in California? Wow, you better apply for the psychic challenge, PhantomWolf.

Since you have eleven predictions- I'll raise another.

11) Increases in "random" killings such as V-Tech and Manitoba Bus incidents causing mass hysteria.

[defaultdotxbe]

Fires in California? Wow, you better apply for the psychic challenge, PhantomWolf.
i think that was PW's point

im not giving him credit though, as 1 does not several make (although 1 is well on the way to 2, which could arguably be several)



not a truther prediction, but i just got back from grocery shopping and didnt notice any giant UFOs

[dudalb]

Wow, Lone Bedouin had to go back and add the one Kooky Conspiracy meme he has forgotten in his predictions: That every mass murder is part of a Guvmint conspiracy.

[TheLoneBedouin]

Wow, Lone Bedouin had to go back and add the one Kooky Conspiracy meme he has forgotten in his predictions: That every mass murder is part of a Guvmint conspiracy.
:boggled:
Odd that JREFers call truthers "potheads"- they sure seem to hallucinate quite a lot.

Here's what I said:


11) Increases in "random" killings such as V-Tech and Manitoba Bus incidents causing mass hysteria.

[PhantomWolf]

:boggled:
Odd that JREFers call truthers "potheads"- they sure seem to hallucinate quite a lot.

Wouldn't the quotes about "random" indicate that they are in fact not random but rather a deliberate conspiracy?

[TheLoneBedouin]

Wouldn't the quotes about "random" indicate that they are in fact not random but rather a deliberate conspiracy?

No- the quotes indicate what the killings are called in the media. Random is used for the seemingly senseless out-of-the-blue killings, but of course, there is a reason for everything.

[PhantomWolf]

No- the quotes indicate what the killings are called in the media. Random is used for the seemingly senseless out-of-the-blue killings, but of course, there is a reason for everything.

Actually they are called "Random Killings" because the victims appear to have been chosen at random just because they were in the wrong spot at the wrong time rather than that that killer actually had a specific beef with them and thus deliberately targeted them.

[TheLoneBedouin]

Corollary to first prediction:
McCain will win the election and the pundits will blame it on the Bradley effect (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect) and women voters switching to get a women in office.

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_2618448f5268b4faa7.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=14066)

[SDC]

Oh bosh. That one would be claimed by any number of political pundits. Try something a little more risky, or what's the point?

[TheLoneBedouin]

Oh bosh. That one would be claimed by any number of political pundits. Try something a little more risky, or what's the point?

But what the pundits won't tell you is that these are mere excuses McCain can use to steal the election.

[Donal]

Just out of curiosity, what will you do if say, Obama wins the election and this time next year, we are well on our way to full financial recovery?

Doesn't that wipe out more than 1/3 your list?

[SDC]

But what the pundits won't tell you is that these are mere excuses McCain can use to steal the election.

I'm going to parse your possibly cagey use of verbs.

"Won't" -- future tense. Strong positive statement.

"is/ are" -- present tense. Neutral connectors between subjects and predicates.

"can use" -- modal. No clear tense reference.

Pretty fuzzy, TLB. Do you mean to say that these are excuses which he will use? Or something vaguer with greater deniability possibilities?

ETA: wait a minute. In post #47 you say that "the pundits will blame it" on those reasons. Have you changed that? Are you now saying that McCain will use those ideas, as rationales? Let's have a little greater clarity on your predictions.

[TheLoneBedouin]

Won't happen- the economy is completely controlled and is tied into the rise of fascism.

[Donal]

But what if? What if we come out of this crisis, like we did every other financial crisis this country has had, without completly dissolving into a Third World country? I'm just spit balling here.

What would you do?

[Cl1mh4224rd]

[...] but of course, there is a reason for everything.


I'm sorry, but there's no reasoning with your level of paranoid delusion. Your mind is broken. Goodbye.

[TheLoneBedouin]

I'm going to parse your possibly cagey use of verbs.

"Won't" -- future tense. Strong positive statement.

"is/ are" -- present tense. Neutral connectors between subjects and predicates.

"can use" -- modal. No clear tense reference.

Pretty fuzzy, TLB. Do you mean to say that these are excuses which he will use? Or something vaguer with greater deniability possibilities?

ETA: wait a minute. In post #47 you say that "the pundits will blame it" on those reasons. Have you changed that? Are you now saying that McCain will use those ideas, as rationales? Let's have a little greater clarity on your predictions.

I'm not saying McCain will himself say these things- I'm saying that the election is already pre-determined and the pundits will be brought in to create "plausible reasons" why McCain won. If you notice, the "Bradley effect", which is curiously being brought up mere weeks before the election, completely negates any polls- therefore, it doesn't matter how many actual Obama supporters there are and McCain can plausibly steal the election through Diebold. The vote count will be manipulated to produce a very close election, but McCain will win.

[TheLoneBedouin]

But what if? What if we come out of this crisis, like we did every other financial crisis this country has had, without completly dissolving into a Third World country? I'm just spit balling here.

What would you do?

Within five years? Well, I would seriously reconsider my positions. The only reason I'm making these predictions is to test which side is more objective.

ETA- It's fair to ask- If it turns out I'm right, what would you do?

[SDC]

I'm not saying McCain will himself say these things- I'm saying that the election is already pre-determined and the pundits will be brought in to create "plausible reasons" why McCain won. If you notice, the "Bradley effect", which is curiously being brought up mere weeks before the election, completely negates any polls- therefore, it doesn't matter how many actual Obama supporters there are and McCain can plausibly steal the election through Diebold. The vote count will be manipulated to produce a very close election, but McCain will win.

The Bradley reference is nothing new. I remember Bradley himself, running for governor. It would be suspicious if it were not brought up at this stage; it's mentioned with every Black candidate. So that argument is the bunk.

Otherwise your predictions are pretty clear as statements. Though the idea of pundits as some sort of deployable force is a pretty comic one. Ah, the horrors of Sunday morning TV.

[Donal]

Not much, because I'd probably be dead if we had a meteor shower like you're predicting.

The other thing is it won't take five years for a couple of your predictions to be proven wrong. If Obama wins next month, that wipes out 2 of your predictions.

If Israel hasn't been pinned for 9/11 in the last 7 years, what makes you think the next 5 will make a difference?

If the economy stabilizes, thats at least one more of your predictions shot.

If the homicide rate in the US decreases, as it has for over a decade now, your random killing idea goes to pot.

And of course, the situation in New Orleans is not what you hope it is.

[Damien Evans]

The objective of my post was not to create an "impression", but to test a hypothesis. The hypothesis is simple:
Jref members (official conspiracy supporters), self-proclaimed internet "rationalists", subconsciously select and substitute data in the formation of their individual world views (each of which shares common characteristcs, such as anti-conspiracy bias) and thus cannot see large sections of reality even when the signs are as clear as day.

Since predicting the future requires a clear understanding of the present, whoever has the highest accuracy rating in predicting the future has the greatest objectivity.

Actually, your post supports my hypothesis, since you dismiss me without having looked at the evidence. You probably think:

If there really was a substantial cometary impact in the near future, surely scientists would tell us and not some anonymous guy on the internet.

This "logic" fails for several reasons:

1) Many important scientific facts could theoretically be known with our current knowledgebase, but are not. Some data is in obscure journal X, while some is in obscure journal Y. It may be that, scientists, busy "publishing or perishing" simply do not have time to put the pieces together, however, a network of intelligent laymen could do it.

2) Perhaps you aren't paying attention and there are scientists publicaly saying exactly that.



So before you call me "kooky", please familiarize yourself with the works of Victor Clube, Bill Napier, Mike Baillie, John S. Lewis, Laura Knight-Jadczyk, and Immanuel Velikovsky.

Hear that?

That's the sound of your remaining credibility going down the toilet.

[PhantomWolf]

Just out of curiosity, what will you do if say, Obama wins the election and this time next year, we are well on our way to full financial recovery?

I'll start ticking off more things on my list.

Hear that?

That's the sound of your remaining credibility going down the toilet.

What remaining credibility?

[PhantomWolf]

The reason I say "what remaining credibility" is that of TLB's list I think there is only a possiblity of one thing happening, and that is that Israel may do airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities in a pre-emtive strike if they believe that Iran is close to developing a bomb. However given the current political situation in Iran, it's entirely possible that I'm a Dinner Jacket won't be in power after the upcoming election and that his more moderate opponent will slow down their Nuclear program and be more willing to work with the UN and the rest of the world to keep it a peaceful program. We'll have to see. There are deffinately rumblings in Iran, but at the moment the Ayatolla's support is still withthe President.

[Donal]

Isn't the president of Iran a token job? The High Council or whatever its called still makes the decisions.

Anyway, I do agree with your point about a changing political climate. It would be hard to raise fervor for a full out war with the US or Israel.

[PhantomWolf]

It is and it isn't. The President tends to rule at the council's pleasure, but politically they do run the country. It's just that if they step out of line too much, the Council is likely to make sure they never get in charge of so much as a rowboat ever again.

[Travis]

Won't happen- the economy is completely controlled and is tied into the rise of fascism.

Yes, and we know how fascists love to wreck their own economies turning the population against them and hindering their ability to be tyrannical.:rolleyes:

I'm guessing your definition of "fascist" is one of those elastic ones that pretty much encompass anything you mildly disagree with.

[JCL]

Since you have eleven predictions- I'll raise another.

11) Increases in "random" killings such as V-Tech and Manitoba Bus incidents causing mass hysteria.

No- the quotes indicate what the killings are called in the media. Random is used for the seemingly senseless out-of-the-blue killings, but of course, there is a reason for everything.

I think you just made dudalb and PhantomWolf's point.

Let’s see

Wow, Lone Bedouin had to go back and add the one Kooky Conspiracy meme he has forgotten in his predictions: That every mass murder is part of a Guvmint conspiracy.

Wouldn't the quotes about "random" indicate that they are in fact not random but rather a deliberate conspiracy?

Looks like dudalb was a little too specific, but PhantomWolf was right on.

[defaultdotxbe]

I think you just made dudalb and PhantomWolf's point.

Let’s see





Looks like dudalb was a little too specific, but PhantomWolf was right on.
reminds me of how killtown used to use scare quotes to redefine words as whatever he wanted, whenever he wanted

[JCL]

I beleive the terminology the kids are using today is

self-pwnage

[TheLoneBedouin]

I think you just made dudalb and PhantomWolf's point.

Let’s see





Looks like dudalb was a little too specific, but PhantomWolf was right on.

Uh, no. There are three choices here: random (nonsensical), conspiracy (2 or more), or intentional murder involving one killer.

Stop derailing the thread and go "pwn" somewhere else please.

[JCL]

So what does "Random" (with quotes) mean?

[Travis]

Uh, no. There are three choices here: random (nonsensical), conspiracy (2 or more), or intentional murder involving one killer.

Stop derailing the thread and go "pwn" somewhere else please.

On what basis do you substantiate your claim that these "random" killings will increase? If you are predicting these does that not make them "expected" killings and not out-of-the-blue "random" killings?

[TheLoneBedouin]

Yes, and we know how fascists love to wreck their own economies turning the population against them and hindering their ability to be tyrannical.:rolleyes:

Yeah because the Nazi regime totally didn't blame the Jews for the massive post-WWI debt and instead blamed themselves. And if they did blame the Jews, the Germany people totally wouldn't believe them and allow a fascist takeover of the Government. :rolleyes:

Be assured, they are not losing any wealth or power, in fact, they steal this power from the people. Creating an extremely stressful economic collapse will only give them more power.

Transmarginal Inhibition, or TMI, is an organism's response to overwhelming stimuli. Ironically, the popular acronym TMI means too much information, which can be a common factor of transmarginal inhibition in today's culture.

Research

Ivan Pavlov enumerated details of TMI on his work of conditioning animals via various stimuli, including pain. (It is not true that all of Pavlov's work was inducing responses via pain as is often reported.)

[...]

Three Stages of TMI

Pavlov established that the ability of a dog to resist heavy stress not only depended on its type, but its physical condition. Once the ultraboundary had been reached and cerebral inhibition induced, very strange things began to happen in the dog's brain. These changes could be measured with some precision (by the amounts of saliva secreted), and, unlike with human beings, were not altered by subjective distortions. That is to say, there was no question of the dog trying to explain away or rationalize their odd behavior as human beings do. Three distinct and progressive stages of "ultraboundary" inhibition were described by Pavlov.

1)The Equivalent Phase of cortical brain activity. In this phase, all stimuli, of whatever strength resulted only in the same amounts of saliva being produced. In the human being, a similar phenomenon is observed when a normal person is in a state of extreme fatigue; they report that there is very little difference between their emotional reactions to either trivial or important experiences. They may say "I'm too tired to care."

2) The Paradoxical Phase. When even stronger stresses are applied (and this can be pain or any other mental, physical, or emotional stress), the equivalent phase passes into the paradoxical phase. In this state, weak stimuli can produce a stronger reaction than a strong stimuli. The reason for this is that the strong stimuli only increase the state of protective inhibition while the weak stimuli can still produce positive responses. When a human being is in this stage, their behavior can reverse in a way that seems totally irrational to an outside observer.

3) The Ultra-Paradoxical Phase. The third stage is where positive conditioned responses suddenly reverse to negative responses and negative ones to positive. The dog (or person) may suddenly find that they like what they formerly detested and loathe what they formerly loved. In this stage, the organism's response becomes opposed to all its previous conditioning.

Additional research on these phases was done by William Sargant in his work on shell-shocked servicemen.

[...]

Social Implications

The means by which TMI operates on the individual is rather clear; what is less clear is how hysteria affects larger groups even moving to the macro-scale. Nevertheless, scientific observers of U.S. society since September 11, 2001, often point out that the events of that day were a classic example of inducing Transmarginal Inhibition in masses of people in order to condition them to accept the destruction of the U.S. Democratic government.


Fear makes you easier to control- whether they use the "terrorist boogeyman" or the economy, they will always attempt to ramp up the fear. If you know what is going to happen, however, you have less fear and are more resistant to transmarginal inhibition, which is one reason why I'm giving these predicitons.

[Travis]

Yeah because the Nazi regime totally didn't blame the Jews for the massive post-WWI debt and instead blamed themselves. And if they did blame the Jews, the Germany people totally wouldn't believe them and allow a fascist takeover of the Government. :rolleyes:

The Nazi's exploited an economic crisis they did not create it. I never said an economic crisis couldn't be exploited.

Be assured, they are not losing any wealth or power, in fact, they steal this power from the people. Creating an extremely stressful economic collapse will only give them more power.

I'm sure you have all sorts of evidence for this.

Fear makes you easier to control- whether they use the "terrorist boogeyman" or the economy, they will always attempt to ramp up the fear. If you know what is going to happen, however, you have less fear and are more resistant to transmarginal inhibition, which is one reason why I'm giving these predicitons.

Using, or exploiting, fear does not mean one was responsible for the actions from which the fear was wrought. A news broadcaster might use fear from recent murders to boost ratings but they did not actually commit the murders in question.

Arguing that people are exploiting the economic crisis is one thing. Arguing that those same people deliberately created the economic crisis to then exploit it is another. You need to provide evidence for both not just one or the other.

[JCL]

TLB,

So what does "Random" (with quotes) mean?

[TheLoneBedouin]

TLB,

So what does "Random" (with quotes) mean?

"Random" means intentional murder involving one killer. The changes in environment (fascism, food shortages, natural disaster, etc.) is the basis for my claim that such murders will increase.

To anyone who disagrees with me on the upcoming election, please vote in my thread- Who will win the 2008 Presidential Election? (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=126458)

[Travis]

"Random" means intentional murder involving one killer. The changes in environment (fascism, food shortages, natural disaster, etc.) is the basis for my claim that such murders will increase.

So you basically consider all premeditated murder to be "random" killings.

[PhantomWolf]

I think what he is trying to convey, and not doing a very good job, is that killings like Columbine weren't random events, the killers planned them out will before hand and there was a reason behind them, that they weren't just senseless and random. The issue is that the news doesn't use random as a way of saying that the killings were senseless, but rather that the victims were random. Unfortunately the two he actually picked, the VA Tech shootings and the Bus Decapatation pretty much were senseless and random attacks done by people that weren't all there upstairs.

[JCL]

"Random" means intentional murder involving one killer. The changes in environment (fascism, food shortages, natural disaster, etc.) is the basis for my claim that such murders will increase.

To anyone who disagrees with me on the upcoming election, please vote in my thread- Who will win the 2008 Presidential Election? (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=126458)

Thanks, I appreciate the straight forward answer to the question, but now we know what you mean.

What does "Mass Hysteria" mean?

May be you can break it down to the definition of "mass" e.g. How many people does it take to qualify as a "mass".

And the definition of "hysteria", what set of characteristics makes one Hysterical, or some other way to know if a person is hysterical.

[Travis]

I think what he is trying to convey, and not doing a very good job, is that killings like Columbine weren't random events, the killers planned them out will before hand and there was a reason behind them, that they weren't just senseless and random. The issue is that the news doesn't use random as a way of saying that the killings were senseless, but rather that the victims were random. Unfortunately the two he actually picked, the VA Tech shootings and the Bus Decapatation pretty much were senseless and random attacks done by people that weren't all there upstairs.

True, but predicting a random event that will, statistically, continue to occur is not that special. Predicting that they will increase in frequency implies there is some sort of stimulus causing them and that would, seemingly, negate calling them "random" as there would now be a pattern to them.

[TheLoneBedouin]

I'm not saying McCain will himself say these things- I'm saying that the election is already pre-determined and the pundits will be brought in to create "plausible reasons" why McCain won. If you notice, the "Bradley effect", which is curiously being brought up mere weeks before the election, completely negates any polls- therefore, it doesn't matter how many actual Obama supporters there are and McCain can plausibly steal the election through Diebold. The vote count will be manipulated to produce a very close election, but McCain will win.
Unfortunately, it looks like my prediction is already coming true.
Jackson County touch-screens switched votes, 3 residents say. At least three early voters in Jackson County had a hard time voting for candidates they want to win.

Virginia Matheney and Calvin Thomas said touch-screen machines in the county clerk's office in Ripley kept switching their votes from Democratic to Republican candidates.

"When I touched the screen for Barack Obama, the check mark moved from his box to the box indicating a vote for John McCain," said Matheney, who lives in Kenna.

When she reported the problem, she said, the poll worker in charge "responded that everything was all right. It was just that the screen was sensitive and I was touching the screen too hard. She instructed me to use only my fingernail."

Even after she began using her fingernail, Matheney said, the problem persisted.

When she tried to vote for candidates running for two open seats on the Supreme Court, the electronic machine canceled her second vote twice. On her third try, Matheney managed to cast votes for both Menis Ketchum and Margaret Workman, Democratic candidates for the two open seats.

Calvin Thomas, 81, who retired from Kaiser Aluminum in Ravenswood in 1983 and now lives in Ripley, experienced the same problem.

"When I pushed Obama, it jumped to McCain. When I went down to governor's office and punched [Gov. Joe] Manchin, it went to the other dude. When I went to Karen Facemyer [the incumbent Republican state senator], I pushed the Democrat, but it jumped again.

"The rest of them were OK, but the machine sent my votes for those top three offices from the Democrat to the Republican," Thomas said.

"When I hollered about that, the girl who worked there said, 'Push it again.' I pushed Obama again and it stayed there. Then, the machine did the same thing for other candidates. Why didn't she [the polling clerk] tell me before I even used the machine that might happen? And how many people, especially my age, didn't notice that?

Source (http://wvgazette.com/News/200810170676).

[defaultdotxbe]

Unfortunately, it looks like my prediction is already coming true.

Source (http://wvgazette.com/News/200810170676).
people in west virginia cant calibrate a touchscren? i could have predicted that

im not sure how jackson county is doing it but in my county (Cook - IL) you have the option of using touchscreens or paper ballots

and FWIW a way to solve the calibration issue (you know, without actually calibrating the thing properly) would be to randomize the order of the candidates, that way the vote will "jump" to a random other candidate and wont skew the vote in favor of 1 person, of course this would probably contribute even more to voter confusion since it seems no one pays attention anyway

[Travis]

My guess is that they probably had the candidates position on the screen formatted by party affiliation, with the Republicans always in the same spot, the Democrats always in the same spot, and so on. But, the machine had a default position to go to, likely top left or top right, whenever it got confused and so it would seem that it was preferentially favoring one party.

It's still something they need to fix.

[TheLoneBedouin]

My guess is that they probably had the candidates position on the screen formatted by party affiliation, with the Republicans always in the same spot, the Democrats always in the same spot, and so on. But, the machine had a default position to go to, likely top left or top right, whenever it got confused and so it would seem that it was preferentially favoring one party.

It's still something they need to fix.
Even if what you say actually occurred, it does not rule out vote rigging, it only changes the mechanism. If these machines are so terrible at reading input values, why are we even using them at all?

[TheLoneBedouin]

In a startling concession, the Republican Party has admitted to participating in an illegal scheme to use foreclosure lists to challenge predominantly Democratic voters in Michigan on Election Day.

An announcement by the Michigan Democratic Party of the settlement of a suit brought last month by the Democratic Party and the Obama campaign states, "The settlement acknowledges the existence of an illegal scheme by the Republicans to use mortgage foreclosure lists to deny foreclosure victims their right to vote. This settlement has the force of law behind it and ensures that Republicans cannot disenfranchise families facing foreclosure."
MI Republicans Admit Illegal Foreclosure Scheme (http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/10/20/mi-republicans-admit-to-illegal-foreclosure-scheme-surrender-to-democrats/)

CNN- GOP Using Foreclosure List to Challenge Voters (http://rawstory.com/news/2008/CNN_GOP_using_foreclosure_list_to_1020.html)

[Brainache]

MI Republicans Admit Illegal Foreclosure Scheme (http://emptywheel.firedoglake.com/2008/10/20/mi-republicans-admit-to-illegal-foreclosure-scheme-surrender-to-democrats/)

CNN- GOP Using Foreclosure List to Challenge Voters (http://rawstory.com/news/2008/CNN_GOP_using_foreclosure_list_to_1020.html)

Well it's good to see Truthers finally acheiving something.... wait... you mean it wasn't some intrepid investigoogler who stopped this bit of political chicanery?

It can't have been the courts or some other political party because they're all in on it, aren't they?

And the media would have hushed it up, wouldn't they?

So LB what will you say when none of your predictions prove true? Will you admit that you don't know as much as you think you do, will you just pretend you never said these things, will you try to twist reality so you can claim that no matter what happens you were right anyway, or what?

I predict you will pretend that you never made the predictions.

[JCL]

So LB what will you say when none of your predictions prove true? Will you admit that you don't know as much as you think you do, will you just pretend you never said these things, will you try to twist reality so you can claim that no matter what happens you were right anyway, or what?

I predict you will pretend that you never made the predictions.

He seems to be more clever/delusional than that, outside of McCain winning the election he kept them vague enough that no matter what happens he will claim he was correct.

There is a good chance that when/if McCain loses, he will still say he is right.

I decided this when he neglected to specifically define the words he used in his prediction 11.

[Tbone]

Only the NWO would rig a vote by showing every single person, in front of their eyes no less, who's vote got rigged that it was rigged.

[angelsaramark]

Good point. These wiseacres in here make my head hurt. Many of the so-called reasoning abilities are merely the ability to label and shelve; and then call names. I don't claim to know the answers, but like you, I can see when things don't add up.

[1337m4n]

Good point. These wiseacres in here make my head hurt. Many of the so-called reasoning abilities are merely the ability to label and shelve; and then call names. I don't claim to know the answers, but like you, I can see when things don't add up.

Use quote boxes please. Nobody knows who you're talking to.

[GodisEnergy]

what i must say is that the exact date (30/september japanese time) of the Financial meltdown was predicted by Benjamin fulford in august 2008.

I was predicting it back in 2007 to be early 2009 ,but i think that obama will definately become president ,mcain would be to obvious to the people so obama a pysop.
early 2008 a terror attack may happen because another one in the bush admin would be to obvious so it will be an obama campaign.

[Cl1mh4224rd]

what i must say is that the exact date (30/september japanese time) of the Financial meltdown was predicted by Benjamin fulford in august 2008.


Why do you need to use "Japanese time" to make the prediction fit?

ETA: Are you into numerology, too?

[fullflavormenthol]

early 2008 a terror attack may happen because another one in the bush admin would be to obvious so it will be an obama campaign.

Well given that it is far past the early part of 2008. I would say that prediction isn't going to come true.

[PhantomWolf]

Well I'd like to point out that 1/2 of my #1 prediction has come to pass, Obama won, thus McCain was not elected in 2008. This means that TLB's #1 and #2 are both incorrect. I could say part of my #2 has past too with people already having planned his assassination, though since I meant while in office only those plans after Jan of 2009 count. Regardless my prediction success is substantially further ahead of TLB's :p

[1337m4n]

Truthers fail yet again; how sad.

[TheLoneBedouin]

Well I'd like to point out that 1/2 of my #1 prediction has come to pass, Obama won, thus McCain was not elected in 2008. This means that TLB's #1 and #2 are both incorrect. I could say part of my #2 has past too with people already having planned his assassination, though since I meant while in office only those plans after Jan of 2009 count. Regardless my prediction success is substantially further ahead of TLB's :p

I was shocked by Obama's win. My guess is that Palin was merely a distraction and that the PTB needs a new mask for the coming global economic reforms.
I must ask though, since you predict that "liberal policies" will increase globally, whether you think that Obama will
repeal the patriot act, for instance.
If his previous actions are any indication, he certainly will not break the Israeli stranglehold on foreign policy.
World events are becoming more and more movie-like everyday- what role Obama will play, I can't say.
2009 is going to be an interesting year, indeed.

[moon1969]

Twoofers said that Hillary Clinton was going to be president. Then twoofers said that Bilderberg would let Hillary Clinton be vice president.

[TheLoneBedouin]

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, eventual return to bartering system (100%)
I am changing my seventh prediction in light of new policies regarding international banking.

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, global change to digital/electronic currency.

[PhantomWolf]

I was shocked by Obama's win. My guess is that Palin was merely a distraction and that the PTB needs a new mask for the coming global economic reforms.

In other words regardles of what happens in the world it had to have been because some shadowy figures luring in the background wanted it to happen that way. Handy having the ability to morph your beliefs around world events without altering your fundemental conclusion, that's called faith.

I must ask though, since you predict that "liberal policies" will increase globally, whether you think that Obama will repeal the patriot act, for instance.

Well first off I don't see the Patriot Act as the hideious evil that many would like to claim it as. US Police and other law enforcement still have far less powers under the Act than many other law enforcement agencies in the western world. I have been in the US for over 4 months now and I have yet to see any rights that the US population has lost. However my many thoughts on the Liberal policies was actually more in the social area. Having said that, one of the biggest surpises for my to come out of the election was the success of several not so liberal policies on gay mariage and such.

If his previous actions are any indication, he certainly will not break the Israeli stranglehold on foreign policy.

So exactly how did Israel affect the US/Australia free trade deal?

World events are becoming more and more movie-like everyday- what role Obama will play, I can't say.
2009 is going to be an interesting year, indeed.

I'm sure that 2009 will have some interesting things happen, but on the whole, for most people it won't be that much different to this year, or last year. The Economy will be a bit tighter, but it'll start to recover soon enough.

[PixyMisa]

I'm sure that 2009 will have some interesting things happen, but on the whole, for most people it won't be that much different to this year, or last year.
It's my turn to take over the world next year. I've been on the waiting list for simply ages, and my name finally came up!

Believe me, there'll be some changes made. One word: Catgirls.

[TheDaver]

One word: Catgirls.
Thousands of them?

[Dave Rogers]

I am changing my seventh prediction in light of new policies regarding international banking.

If you change a prediction in the light of subsequent events, how is that different to an admission that the original prediction has failed?

Dave

[ihaunter]

If you change a prediction in the light of subsequent events, how is that different to an admission that the original prediction has failed?

Dave

Easy. Changing the prediction is something CTists are capable of doing.

Notice that TLB never actually admitted his first prediction was wrong. He hand waves it away because "THEY" were more devious than he thought.

[Humanzee]

Catgirls? Its about flipping time.

BTW why is it predictions have historically been so useless in making any positive changes to society, etc? Is the complaint that no ones listens? Wouldn't people listen if they were effective? Or am I over analyzing? Isn't it just throughing a bunch of stuff up and seeing what sticks.

[sts60]

A few comments, following up on what PW noted:
...My Predictions w/ estimated probability:
1) McCain will win the election (80%).
Failed.
2) McCain will die in office (55%).
Failed automatically since #1 didn't happen.
3) New attack on America using nuclear weapons (100%).
TBD. Does this mean specifically fission/fusion weapons, or does it include radiological "dirty bombs"?

4-8. TBD.

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (100%)
Does this mean "massive natural disasters across the world", or "natural disasters that each have massive worldwide effects"? This is not a quibble; we have the former pretty often.

10. TBD.

I estimate that by 5 years my total accuracy rating will be no less than 90%.
Failed. Your accuracy rating is already at a ceiling of 80%.

[ImaginalDisc]

Hello? Where's TheLoneBedouin?

Hello?

By the by, Bedouin's a sort of akward pluralization of a plural. They refer to themselves as Bedu.

[defaultdotxbe]

Hello? Where's TheLoneBedouin?

Hello?

By the by, Bedouin's a sort of akward pluralization of a plural. They refer to themselves as Bedu.
so the lone bedouin is sortof like the lone rangers?


once in high school i had a substitue teacher who said she was an alumni of that school, she never did figure out why no one in my honors english class respected her

[Dave Rogers]

I am changing my seventh prediction in light of new policies regarding international banking.

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, global change to digital/electronic currency.

Quite apart from the rather absurd idea that a prediction can validly be changed because events make it obsolete (isn't it rather the point of a prediction that events don't make it obsolete?), I realised that this new prediction doesn't even make sense, and arguably isn't even a prediction.

First of all, if fiat currency is completely debased, what is the basis for the digital/electronic currency? Digital/electronic specifies a medium of exchange, not a currency standard. If this digital/electronic currency is based on a gold standard, then the original prediction still applies. If it isn't, then it's still a fiat currency, so fiat currency hasn't been completely debased. The change to the prediction is nonsensical in that respect.

Secondly, the last part is barely a prediction at all. I just checked my household accounts and found that, in a typical month, more than 98% of the money going through my accounts is in the form of direct transfers or debit card purchases; in other words, digitally and electronically. It's hardly an earth-shattering prediction, from where I'm standing, to say that the remaining 2% will eventually go the same way.

Dave

[Thunder]

Alex Jones did predict the stock market would fall. I give him that one. Though, he did also predict $200 oil. That one...he seems to have screwed up.

[mikehh]

Alex Jones did predict the stock market would fall. I give him that one. Though, he did also predict $200 oil. That one...he seems to have screwed up.


when did jones predict it?? and what did he predict.. vauge generalizations dont mean much to me. if he said in august it would be 8k in oct then ill give him some credit.. but there were a couple analyists on bloomberg saying that too and i dont think that they are on team NWO but i may be wrong.

oh and i do think oil will be 200 some day but the question is when? 10 years from now, 20 next month... there is a lot to digest with his "prediction"

i think he just fires off cold predictions like that guy john edwards from crossing over was accused of doing. some of them are bound to come true

[Thunder]

he also predicted 9-11...to the day!!!

..didnt he?

[mikehh]

he also predicted 9-11...to the day!!!

..didnt he?


kinda new on this so youll have to cut me some slack if this is not the video in question

video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5303650980076317276

no mention of date or the WTC being attacked just a terror attack happening and it will be done by our govt and he blames ok and wtc 1 on our govt.

like i said as far as i can see more cold reading. Since i was a kid everyone has said its not if but when the us gets hit by a terror attack. if im missing something pls let me know but this isnt selling me at all.

[Oliver]

he also predicted 9-11...to the day!!!

..didnt he?


He did ... well, not to the day ... :

UGtOFudmHG8


[Like he predicts a false flag attack almost every single day... :p]

[Thunder]

4 million of us are gonna die. martial law.

july, 2001.

its been 7 years now.

hmmmm...

[Oliver]

4 million of us are gonna die. martial law.

july, 2001.

its been 7 years now.

hmmmm...


Well, Truthers will claim that 4 million died in Iraq - and that
martial law is happening according to youtube videos of police
aggression (http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=police+brutality&search_type=&aq=3&oq=police). So it all make sense... :p

[Hans]

65 million humans die each year

[Thunder]

65 million humans die each year

conspiracy theorist!!!

=)

[Hans]

Yes it's that fascist bitch the tooth fairy and her mother, who goes by the name nature or some such.

[Oliver]

Yes it's that fascist bitch the tooth fairy and her mother, who goes by the name nature or some such.


Well, we use to call that conspiracy you mentioned "Natures World Order" in here.

[CptColumbo]

Well first off I don't see the Patriot Act as the hideious evil that many would like to claim it as. US Police and other law enforcement still have far less powers under the Act than many other law enforcement agencies in the western world. I have been in the US for over 4 months now and I have yet to see any rights that the US population has lost. However my many thoughts on the Liberal policies was actually more in the social area. Having said that, one of the biggest surpises for my to come out of the election was the success of several not so liberal policies on gay mariage and such.
As you say,while the Federal Government has not taken away rights, certain states in the last election prohibited homosexuals from being married in a legal sense. It is unfortunate that some believe that the right to the "life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness" should only be open to some, and that an activity where no one is physically harmed and that only affects the people directly involved should be restricted to a certain demographic.

A co-worker of mine is all for same-sex marriage, but is also twice divorced and thinks they should be careful for what they ask for.

[Thunder]

As you say,while the Federal Government has not taken away rights, certain states in the last election prohibited homosexuals from being married in a legal sense. .

those referendums are the will of the people. if you dont respect the will of the federal government...and you dont respect the will of the people..

who's rule do you respect? just your own?

state and city referendums are the only TRUE democracy that we have in this country. either you support democracy or you dont.

[Silly Green Monkey]

The founders of the US hated and feared true democracy. That's why the US is a representational republic instead of rule by the most common stupid.

[Pardalis]

My Predictions w/ estimated probability:

1) McCain will win the election (80%).

2) McCain will die in office (55%).

3) New attack on America using nuclear weapons (100%).

4) Israel will be outed as the perps behind 9/11 (possibly by way of the increasingly independent Russia) (100%)

5) Overt Fascism in America (similiar to what New Orleans, but national-level) (100%)

6) Attack on Iran (90%).

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, eventual return to bartering system (100%)

8) World-wide Fascism under guise of increasing terrorist threat (100%)

9) Massive world-wide natural disasters including impact of cometary shower including multiple Tunguska-like impacts (100%)

10) Complete re-structuring of society (100%)


I estimate that by 5 years my total accuracy rating will be no less than 90%. I would be interested if a debunker could make an alternate set of predictions so we can compare the accuracy (again my time frame is only 5 years).

Since 1 and 2 will 100% not happen, do you still think 3 through 10 will happen, and with the same percentages?

[JoeyDonuts]

I think LoneBedouin went to Payless to get himself a new set of backpedaling shoes.

Seriously...anyone who makes predictions on anything should consult Jack Van Impe first. He's predicted the Second Coming of Jeebus about twelve times now.

[Almo]

The hypothesis is simple:
Jref members (official conspiracy supporters), self-proclaimed internet "rationalists", subconsciously select and substitute data in the formation of their individual world views (each of which shares common characteristcs, such as anti-conspiracy bias) and thus cannot see large sections of reality even when the signs are as clear as day.

In an old JREF tradition, let me fix this:

The hypothesis is simple: Truth Movement members (conspiracy supporters), self-proclaimed internet "truth-seekers", subconsciously select and substitute data in the formation of their individual world views (each of which shares common characteristcs, such as conspiracy bias) and thus cannot see large sections of reality even when the signs are as clear as day.

I left "subconciously" in there referring to the honestly deluded ones, not the big-time liars.

[CptColumbo]

I think LoneBedouin went to Payless to get himself a new set of backpedaling shoes.

Seriously...anyone who makes predictions on anything should consult Jack Van Impe first. He's predicted the Second Coming of Jeebus about twelve times now.

Maybe Jesus came back and just didn't tell anyone. He forgot his keys on the hall table or something.

[TheLoneBedouin]

Yes to Pardalis.
BTW, Re: prediction #9- there's been an interesting video circulating around the net:

watch?v=e_2aX-784sw

[defaultdotxbe]

Yes to Pardalis.
BTW, Re: prediction #9- there's been an interesting video circulating around the net:

watch?v=e_2aX-784sw
meteors entering the atmosphere are certainly not a new phenomenon, and this isnt evidence of any increase in meteors or impacts

[fullflavormenthol]

Yes to Pardalis.
BTW, Re: prediction #9- there's been an interesting video circulating around the net:

watch?v=e_2aX-784sw


Meteors enter Earth's atmosphere all the time. It is still unlikely to have a massive impact within your time frame.

[fullflavormenthol]

I estimate that by 5 years my total accuracy rating will be no less than 90%. I would be interested if a debunker could make an alternate set of predictions so we can compare the accuracy (again my time frame is only 5 years).

Nope. You made 10 perdictions, and the first one was wrong; the second was dependent on the first. Now my math ain't so good given I don't believe in no book learnin', but I reckon if'n all your other predictions came true you would be lookin' at 80% max.

[defaultdotxbe]

Nope. You made 10 perdictions, and the first one was wrong; the second was dependent on the first. Now my math ain't so good given I don't believe in no book learnin', but I reckon if'n all your other predictions came true you would be lookin' at 80% max.
considering that he gave probabilities to his prediction he can claim mccain came with 80% of a probability unit to winning the election, lol

[TheLoneBedouin]

meteors entering the atmosphere are certainly not a new phenomenon
Indeed, and there is quite a bit of evidence that multiple Tunguska-like impacts over relatively short intervals are also not new phenomena.

, and this isnt evidence of any increase in meteors or impacts
It is part of the data. There is a growing body of evidence, both direct (i.e. sightings) and indirect (e.g. increasing earthquakes, forest fires, cometary dust in atmosphere, etc.) that cometary impacts have been increasing over the last few centuries.

See:

Meteorites, Asteroids, and Comets- Damages, Disasters, Injuries, Deaths, and Very Close Calls (http://www.sott.net/articles/show/151954-Meteorites-Asteroids-and-Comets-Damages-Disasters-Injuries-Deaths-and-Very-Close-Calls)

[garethdjb]

To be fair, prediction #2 just says McCain will die in office, i guess any office will do. He may even win an election of some sort within the next 5 years. Any decent prophet should be capable of creative re-interpretation.

[fullflavormenthol]

To be fair, prediction #2 just says McCain will die in office, i guess any office will do. He may even win an election of some sort within the next 5 years. Any decent prophet should be capable of creative re-interpretation.
Thats true, and I didn't think that the word office can also mean a physical location. So if McCain dies in a doctor's office, and office building or his home office the prediction is true. :D

[defaultdotxbe]

Thats true, and I didn't think that the word office can also mean a physical location. So if McCain dies in a doctor's office, and office building or his home office the prediction is true. :D
if maccain dies anytime in the next 8 years TLB can claim "see, if he had been elected he WOULD have died in office, so 2 was true"

and if he doesnt die, he can say that without the stress of being president his health was better, its win-win

[PhantomWolf]

Indeed, and there is quite a bit of evidence that multiple Tunguska-like impacts over relatively short intervals are also not new phenomena.


It is part of the data. There is a growing body of evidence, both direct (i.e. sightings) and indirect (e.g. increasing earthquakes, forest fires, cometary dust in atmosphere, etc.) that cometary impacts have been increasing over the last few centuries.

See:

Meteorites, Asteroids, and Comets- Damages, Disasters, Injuries, Deaths, and Very Close Calls (http://www.sott.net/articles/show/151954-Meteorites-Asteroids-and-Comets-Damages-Disasters-Injuries-Deaths-and-Very-Close-Calls)

One of the major issue here is determining any increase of actual impacts from the increase in reported impacts. Reporting of Meteors is a relatively new thing and so there just isn't any steady data on it. It's like earthquakes. Over all the number of detected earthquakes is increasing, but the number of large earthquakes is relatively steady. It is the number of richter 1-2 level quakes that have increased as our detection methods have improved. What we can say relatively accurately if that the number of large impacts has not increased dramatically over the past 100 years.

[GreNME]

Indeed, and there is quite a bit of evidence that multiple Tunguska-like impacts over relatively short intervals are also not new phenomena.


It is part of the data. There is a growing body of evidence, both direct (i.e. sightings) and indirect (e.g. increasing earthquakes, forest fires, cometary dust in atmosphere, etc.) that cometary impacts have been increasing over the last few centuries.

See:

Meteorites, Asteroids, and Comets- Damages, Disasters, Injuries, Deaths, and Very Close Calls (http://www.sott.net/articles/show/151954-Meteorites-Asteroids-and-Comets-Damages-Disasters-Injuries-Deaths-and-Very-Close-Calls)

No offense, but could you actually provide an assessment from a scientifically reliable, valid, and independently-confirmable source? I would highly appreciate it if you could do so, because I have some fairly standard problems with the logic used and conclusions presented on that website-- numerous self-references instead of data references, jumping to conclusions not supported independently, and so on. This can obviously be addressed easily be you through the simple process of pointing out the specific source data and possibly providing a reasonable brief summary of the conclusions you believe are evident using your own words.

Impacts, as have been pointed out, are not something that can be reasonably called a recent phenomenon, and it's fairly well-documented that the vast majority of actual impacts in recorded history (of impacts) have been relatively small. What should also be noted is that meteors regularly bounce off the atmosphere or burn up in entry on an even more regular basis than any meteor actually making it to the ground. This may not seem to factor into the conclusion you seem to be alluding to (or that your link claims), but it's important to note because it affects projections greatly due to the greater numbers. That this enormously affects projections is the point others have been attempting to point out to you, because the vast majority of projections using these data come to a very contradictory conclusion than the one you are presenting.

I don't mean to imply you don't understand this-- quite the contrary-- I'm pointing this out to clarify the content of my disagreement with or skepticism of what you've claimed so far as not simply being a "nuh-uh" argumentative statement, as well as a request for actual data, while pointing out that the conclusion you (hopefully) propose needs to be more than simply earnest or guesswork, it really does need to be composed of actual data. I point out the latter because there are people here who have had at least some interest in the different probabilities that have been proposed out there, so there are people who will recognize valid data as opposed to numbers being pulled out of the internet ether of thin air.

I look forward to your clarifications and presentation of data.

[sleeplessdwarf]

Indeed, and there is quite a bit of evidence that multiple Tunguska-like impacts over relatively short intervals are also not new phenomena.


It is part of the data. There is a growing body of evidence, both direct (i.e. sightings) and indirect (e.g. increasing earthquakes, forest fires, cometary dust in atmosphere, etc.) that cometary impacts have been increasing over the last few centuries.

See:

Meteorites, Asteroids, and Comets- Damages, Disasters, Injuries, Deaths, and Very Close Calls (http://www.sott.net/articles/show/151954-Meteorites-Asteroids-and-Comets-Damages-Disasters-Injuries-Deaths-and-Very-Close-Calls)




Laura

"I'm not done yet with exposing "The Secret History of The World." Once you start uncovering things, one thing leads to another and another. It's amazing how ignorant we all have been brought up to be by our "benevolent masters." Right. We are made ignorant so they can continue to play their sick power games.

And we see, of course, why there are efforts to suppress us. No other website on the internet takes the care we take to research and consider each element so as to try to bring to the reader the clearest view and most likely interpretation possible.

And we notice the resounding silence of the other so-called "alternative media" in regards to Pepin's lawsuit against us. Those who don't stand up for Freedom of Speech on our account clearly do not care about truth and never did."
Added: Sun, 30 Mar 2008 06:38 UTC


This is taken from your link. I won't post the whole account since it is a bit long but it is the 1780 Canadian event during the Revolutionary War.

"But we know today that the darkness had moved southwest at about 25 mph. And we know that forest fires in Canada in 1881, 1950 and 2002 each cast a pall of smoke over the northeastern United States.

A definitive answer came in 2007. In the International Journal of Wildland Fire, Erin R. McMurry of the University of Missouri forestry department and co-authors combined written accounts with fire-scar evidence from Algonquin Provincial Park in eastern Ontario to document a massive wildfire in the spring of 1780 as the "likely source of the infamous Dark Day of 1780." LINK Sounds like an impact event."

Now there are more examples of these free interpretations, but again I won't post as to not bore you all to death. When you read the comment section you see just how easy people bite and take this as a great source of information on the "truth that is being kept from us". In other words, typical CT crap. Don't get me wrong, I am sure many of the events were indeed "impact events" but to claim some type of superior investigating is just silly.

[Pardalis]

BTW, any positive predictions, LoneBedouin?

It's like you want things to get worse, or something. Give me some good happy predictions.

[TheLoneBedouin]

BTW, any positive predictions, LoneBedouin?

Absolutely- "total restructuring of society" doesn't have to be a bad thing.

The Future is Open.

[Pardalis]

Absolutely- "total restructuring of society" doesn't have to be a bad thing.

The Future is Open.

A bit too much open, it can mean anything.

How exactly will this be done, and when?

[Cl1mh4224rd]

A bit too much open, it can mean anything.


Really... I don't think TLB quite understands the concept of prediction.

My "prediction": Something will happen tomorrow. It could be good; it could be bad. Where's my $1m?

[Pi_314]

7) Complete economic collapse- complete debasement of fiat currency, eventual return to bartering system (100%)
This is a distinct possiblity. Couldn't possibly give it 100%, but if you said 50%, I'd have to agree. The US is in for a world of hurt, and we may not see the light at the end of the tunnel for a good ten years, if at all. It's that bad!

Bend over, cuz there ain't much you can do about it.

[Donal]

Absolutely- "total restructuring of society" doesn't have to be a bad thing.

The Future is Open.


could you perhaps define that? Narrow it down a little? that is quite a vague statement.

[Travis]

This is a distinct possiblity. Couldn't possibly give it 100%, but if you said 50%, I'd have to agree. The US is in for a world of hurt, and we may not see the light at the end of the tunnel for a good ten years, if at all. It's that bad!

Bend over, cuz there ain't much you can do about it.

We'd need things to get substantially worse than even the Great Depression before there would be any chance of a complete abandonment of our economy in lieu of old fashioned bartering. For one thing most people would have nothing to offer a barter economy. I mean if you already have loads of wagon wheels, barrels of lard or a blacksmithing forge you might be alright but most of us only have TV's, computers and video games which would all be useless in a world without electricity.

[Tolls]

We'd need things to get substantially worse than even the Great Depression before there would be any chance of a complete abandonment of our economy in lieu of old fashioned bartering. For one thing most people would have nothing to offer a barter economy. I mean if you already have loads of wagon wheels, barrels of lard or a blacksmithing forge you might be alright but most of us only have TV's, computers and video games which would all be useless in a world without electricity.

Quite.
I could be wrong, but even Zimbabwe hasn't abandoned its rather worthless currency. The Weimar Republic didn't abandon its currency during the early 20s either...

[TraneWreck]

Indeed, and there is quite a bit of evidence that multiple Tunguska-like impacts over relatively short intervals are also not new phenomena.


It is part of the data. There is a growing body of evidence, both direct (i.e. sightings) and indirect (e.g. increasing earthquakes, forest fires, cometary dust in atmosphere, etc.) that cometary impacts have been increasing over the last few centuries.

See:

Meteorites, Asteroids, and Comets- Damages, Disasters, Injuries, Deaths, and Very Close Calls (http://www.sott.net/articles/show/151954-Meteorites-Asteroids-and-Comets-Damages-Disasters-Injuries-Deaths-and-Very-Close-Calls)


Are you talking about the bombardment phase that lasted from roughly 4 to 3 billion years ago? Because there were blasts back then that made Tunguska look like a firecracker. There was also one about 65 million years ago that caused some problems. You might have heard about it.

Also, given what we know about the history of the world you are making useless predictions.

Here are some that are sure to come true: there will be a massive earthquake. There will be a massive flood. There will be a giant hurricane. A volcano will erupt. A meteor or comet will hit the Earth. The sun will die. Through entropy the universe will eventually become cold.

I promise you that if you check back in a trillion years I will have been proven to be 100% correct.

[CptColumbo]

My prediction for the new year 2009:
The "Twoof Movement" will be seen as camsplackish.

[Travis]

My prediction for the new year 2009:
The "Twoof Movement" will be seen as camsplackish.

Yeah, well, you just wait until January and when Bush refuses to leave the White House and Blackwater protects him from being evicted........you'll see then!

[bonavada]

<slight derail>
I might be wrong but......strictly speaking isn't it the case that meteors can never do damage to the Earths surface? It's only meteorites that cause problems down here. Meteors burn up during atmospheric entry. Meteorites are the little buggers that make a splashdown in peoples goldfish ponds or the rather larger swines that empty the Gulf of Mexico.

just my tuppence

BV

[defaultdotxbe]

<slight derail>
I might be wrong but......strictly speaking isn't it the case that meteors can never do damage to the Earths surface? It's only meteorites that cause problems down here. Meteors burn up during atmospheric entry. Meteorites are the little buggers that make a splashdown in peoples goldfish ponds or the rather larger swines that empty the Gulf of Mexico.

just my tuppence

BV
it was my understanding that meteor refers to a meteorite when it is in the atmosphere, IE all meteorites were meteors, but not all meteors become meteorites

[sleeplessdwarf]

Yeah, well, you just wait until January and when Bush refuses to leave the White House and Blackwater protects him from being evicted........you'll see then!

This one would amaze me beyond belief. Every time I see Bush these days, I get the impression that he would leave the Whitehouse today if someone let him. :D

[PhantomWolf]

it was my understanding that meteor refers to a meteorite when it is in the atmosphere, IE all meteorites were meteors, but not all meteors become meteorites

Quite correct. Though it depends on size too

In space: Meteoroid
In the Atmosphere: Meteor
On the ground: Meteorite

If they are bigger...

In space: Asteroid
In the Atmosphere: OMG We're all going to DIE!
On the ground: Assuming anyone survived it'd likely be a "What the Heck was That?"

[Cl1mh4224rd]

In space: Meteoroid
In the Atmosphere: Meteor
On the ground: Meteorite


On your head: Metroid

[TheLoneBedouin]

No offense, but could you actually provide an assessment from a scientifically reliable, valid, and independently-confirmable source? I would highly appreciate it if you could do so, because I have some fairly standard problems with the logic used and conclusions presented on that website-- numerous self-references instead of data references, jumping to conclusions not supported independently, and so on. This can obviously be addressed easily be you through the simple process of pointing out the specific source data and possibly providing a reasonable brief summary of the conclusions you believe are evident using your own words.

Impacts, as have been pointed out, are not something that can be reasonably called a recent phenomenon, and it's fairly well-documented that the vast majority of actual impacts in recorded history (of impacts) have been relatively small. What should also be noted is that meteors regularly bounce off the atmosphere or burn up in entry on an even more regular basis than any meteor actually making it to the ground. This may not seem to factor into the conclusion you seem to be alluding to (or that your link claims), but it's important to note because it affects projections greatly due to the greater numbers. That this enormously affects projections is the point others have been attempting to point out to you, because the vast majority of projections using these data come to a very contradictory conclusion than the one you are presenting.

I don't mean to imply you don't understand this-- quite the contrary-- I'm pointing this out to clarify the content of my disagreement with or skepticism of what you've claimed so far as not simply being a "nuh-uh" argumentative statement, as well as a request for actual data, while pointing out that the conclusion you (hopefully) propose needs to be more than simply earnest or guesswork, it really does need to be composed of actual data. I point out the latter because there are people here who have had at least some interest in the different probabilities that have been proposed out there, so there are people who will recognize valid data as opposed to numbers being pulled out of the internet ether of thin air.

I look forward to your clarifications and presentation of data.

For GreNME, here's some more data (http://www.amazon.com/gp/richpub/listmania/fullview/R32S2L1G3ECURP/ref=cm_pdp_lm_title_1).

Order of Priority:

1) Firestone; Clube (also, check references in both)

2) Baillie

3) Velikovsky (on Catastrophism vs. Uniformitarianism)

4) Other sources

Happy reading!:)

[PhantomWolf]

Velikovsky

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Next you'll be referencing Divad Icke. Velikovsky is a Kooky Kookster. He claims Venus passed Earth close enough to exchange atmosphere, an event that would have destryed the planet and knocked our moon out of orbit, and not once, but twice! The guy makes up a bunch of translations, claims he and only he is right and spins a tale that even the dumbest jellyfish can see through.

Again I say BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

[TheLoneBedouin]

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

Next you'll be referencing Divad Icke. Velikovsky is a Kooky Kookster. He claims Venus passed Earth close enough to exchange atmosphere, an event that would have destryed the planet and knocked our moon out of orbit, and not once, but twice! The guy makes up a bunch of translations, claims he and only he is right and spins a tale that even the dumbest jellyfish can see through.

Again I say BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Yep- I knew I would get the Sagan-inspired anti-Velikovsky reflex on this site.

As I indicated, my reference to Velikovsky has to do with his treatment of catastrophism vs. uniformitarianism, not any of his alleged "kooky" theories.

[grmcdorman]

`alleged "kooky" theories'??

Like PhantomWolf said, BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

In addition to what he mentioned, Velikovsky has:

Venus is a "comet" (i.e. cold icy ball) and at the same time very hot
Venus bounces around the solar system, at one point being "trapped" by Jupiter
Venus has "hydrocarbons" in its atmosphere (rain of fire in one of the above passes, don't you know)
The concentration of gases in the tail of "Comet Venus" is high enough to catch fire when the Earth passes through the tail (Comet tails, no matter how big, are still much better vaccums than most anything produced on Earth)
Hydrocarbons are carbohydrates (BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!)
After all the erratic and elliptical orbits Venus was on, it ends up in a nearly circular orbit


That's just a sampling off the top of my head. Now if that isn't kooky, I don't know what is.

ETA: Much of that list is not from Sagan; it's from Isaac Asimov. I am not familiar with Sagan's comments on Velikovsky.

[CptColumbo]

"Velikovsky is neither crank nor charlatan — although to state my opinion and to quote one of my colleagues, he is at least gloriously wrong ... Velikovsky would rebuild the science of celestial mechanics to save the literal accuracy of ancient legends." - Stephen Jay Gould

Didn't Velikovsky also believe that the Earth was once a moon of Jupiter, and Jupiter ejecting us is what caused the biblical flood?

[grmcdorman]

Not sure. There's an essay on Velikovsky here: http://abob.libs.uga.edu/bobk/velstcol.html

Apparently "modern" Velkovskians are Electric Universe proponents, according to the essay.

One choice quote from the essay:
This denial of the clear message from the ice cores is an example of "invincible ignorance," ...

Sound familiar?

[PhantomWolf]

"Velikovsky is neither crank nor charlatan — although to state my opinion and to quote one of my colleagues, he is at least gloriously wrong ... Velikovsky would rebuild the science of celestial mechanics to save the literal accuracy of ancient legends." - Stephen Jay Gould

Didn't Velikovsky also believe that the Earth was once a moon of Jupiter, and Jupiter ejecting us is what caused the biblical flood?

I'm not familar with either Asimov or Sagan's opinions on him, I formed my own.

I believe that he advocates that the Earth was once part of a planet he calls Taimat. It was where the Asteriod Belt is. It was either hit or came close enough to a planet called Nibiru, which has a weird orbit that takes out way out past the Plutoids, to be broken up with the Earth being thrown into it's current orbit, the remains of the planet becoming the Asteriod Belt and one of it's moons becoming Mars. Venus was a comet that was ejected from the centre of Jupiter and had a number of close encounters with Earth during biblical times, passing close enough to mix atmospheres as it did (resulting in the biblical plauges of Eygpt and also Mana.)

Really his work is quite nuts.

[CptColumbo]

I'm not familar with either Asimov or Sagan's opinions on him, I formed my own.

I believe that he advocates that the Earth was once part of a planet he calls Taimat. It was where the Asteriod Belt is. It was either hit or came close enough to a planet called Nibiru, which has a weird orbit that takes out way out past the Plutoids, to be broken up with the Earth being thrown into it's current orbit, the remains of the planet becoming the Asteriod Belt and one of it's moons becoming Mars. Venus was a comet that was ejected from the centre of Jupiter and had a number of close encounters with Earth during biblical times, passing close enough to mix atmospheres as it did (resulting in the biblical plauges of Eygpt and also Mana.)

Really his work is quite nuts.I started reading more about him and his hypothesis of the formation of the solar system is an interesting read. Doesn't make it correct, but it is entertaining.

Carl Sagan devoted part of his book Broca's Brain (ISBN 0-394-50169-1) debunking Velikovsky's ideas.

[1337m4n]

Peaceful transition of power; another failed Truther prediction. http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=133028&page=2

[buka001]

I see one of Obama's first initiatives has been to close Gitmo and repudiate some of the Patriot Act laws. Not something one would expect to see in the so called police state. Definitely not a stepping stone towards a facist state.

[Cl1mh4224rd]

I see one of Obama's first initiatives has been to close Gitmo and repudiate some of the Patriot Act laws. Not something one would expect to see in the so called police state. Definitely not a stepping stone towards a facist state.


Damn...

[Texas]

Regarding prediction 7...Total economic collapse. Hands of that one, I have predicted 10 of the last 0 total economic collapses in the 20th and 21st century

[PhantomWolf]

Unfortunately my predictions of fires in Australia and deaths associated has come horrifically correct. Unfortunately I don't forsee a changing of this in the near future. More fires, and more deaths will be coming over the next few years, if not this year.

[WildCat]

Unfortunately my predictions of fires in Australia and deaths associated has come horrifically correct. Unfortunately I don't forsee a changing of this in the near future. More fires, and more deaths will be coming over the next few years, if not this year.
Just curious, does Australia, like the US, have a policy of fighting all fires leading to a buildup of underbrush which makes any subsequent fires far worse than they would be had the earlier small fires been allowed to burn the underbrush?

It's this short-sighted policy that has caused the ever-larger wildfires in the US.

[UNLoVedRebel]

I predicted that Grey Davis did not order someone to start the California wildfires as a "false flag" operation.

I was correct.

[PhantomWolf]

Just curious, does Australia, like the US, have a policy of fighting all fires leading to a buildup of underbrush which makes any subsequent fires far worse than they would be had the earlier small fires been allowed to burn the underbrush?

It's this short-sighted policy that has caused the ever-larger wildfires in the US.

While I'm not an Aussie, from the news this does appear to be the case. They are blaming the hot summer, increased plant growth from CO2 levels and that the undergrowth had been allowed to grow out of control adding a huge amount of fuel to the fires. Arsonists and the strong winds did the rest.