Natal'ya Votonikova - Man in a Box [Archive]

catbasket

9th October 2008, 07:18 PM

Cost of hiring a warehouse and shipping containers?

I was confused by these bits -
...she will be able to identify a box containing a male who speaks Russian...

... she will be able to identify a box ... amongst many ... identical boxes if there is a Russian male inside. None of the other boxes can contain people...

Does the person in the box have to be Russian or just speak Russian? And male? In a brightly coloured box? So a Russian-speaking Ukranian woman in a grey box would be no good for the test? My mind boggles at the amount of pre-testing she must have done to discover her ability.

If the ability is in fact as specific as it appears could the other boxes not contain variations on the Russian-speaking Ukranian woman theme ... then any possible noise from the target Russian-speaking Russian man would not be so important as it could be masked by the sound of the Welsh-speaking Croat androgyne in the next box along singing "Land of My Fathers" (in English)?

rjh01

9th October 2008, 11:29 PM

If noise is a problem then you could make them sound proof (but how to get air to the person inside?). Or you could play sounds from a tape deck that could be a man inside.

To score a pass this test would need to be done at least three times.

I suggest that the person be able to detect three people behind a wall. They be given a choice of 25 places and if they can detect which three positions the men are they pass with odds of one in 2,300 (I think!).

Jackalgirl

10th October 2008, 01:45 AM

Any specification that the box has to be upright? Even someone sitting on a chair will probably shift a bit, so I think that rjh01's suggestion about tape decks (in all of the boxes) is a good one.

(Though, of course, Snow's idea of the Welsh-speaking Croat androgyne (WSCA) is terrific, I think it would be rather expensive to find someone like that. Unless you could record the WSCA and play the song, with slight delays, in all of the other boxes.)

But if the box doesn't have to be upright, perhaps the person can lay down inside. Maybe it would be easier to be still if you're prone. I know I'd be more likely to be still if I were lying down.

Does the man have to be in a /box/? What about being behind a half-box screen (three sides, or even two sides arranged in a "V" large enough to cover up a sitting person)? Does the box (or screen) have to be of any particular material? Could it be several laminated pieces of cardboard?

You could set up some cheap fabric curtains in between and at the sides to prevent the claimant from approaching at such an angle as to be able to see behind the screens.

Since the language of the man has been established to be critical, does it mean that he is going to have to talk?

(Edited to add: I am unsure as to how this claim is Paranormal, unless of course the man remains silent and still, and the claimant cannot approach the boxes at a close enough range to hear him shifting, breathing, etc.)

chillzero

10th October 2008, 01:57 AM

You don't need to keep the man quiet. You only need to eliminate the possibility she can hear him.

NobbyNobbs

10th October 2008, 01:59 AM

Can the claimant wear sound-proof headphones?

Coveredinbeeees

10th October 2008, 02:02 AM

We are certain that she is not simply going to shout "If you're Russian and you know it clap your hands," or something along those lines aren't we?

I will be fascinated to hear how she discovered her ability.

It is probably not relevant in Florida but I imagine a box containing a man in a warehouse in Moscow might stand out due to vapour from the occupant's breath emerging from it. During the colder part of the year anyway.

William Smith

10th October 2008, 03:21 AM

Could she identify him if he would simply stand on the other side of a wall? That would eliminate clues and would make the test much easier. Any hallway seems suitable.

Divide the wall into five increments of 1.5m / 5 ft, place him behind one. Have her pick the increment from the other side of the wall. Repeat the test until sample size is sufficient.

Cuddles

10th October 2008, 03:37 AM

There's one obvious way to keep him quiet. Does the Russian man actually have to be alive?

pavel_do

10th October 2008, 03:41 AM

guys... ye ye.. some say that every psychic convinced that he is real..
I sew program.. on Russian TV (via Internet) with this Lady performing Natalja VOROTNIKOVA in TV.. ( here it says Votonikova...though for TV she could have use not real surname) Any way.. she is fake.. the test with guy inside.. they showed similar on tv where she found guy in CAR... and he was silent... any way.. see no point in making it specifically Russian speaking... if she possibly read minds.. she can read even English who will be constantly repeating some words that will be agreed before.. even in Russian.. Have to say.. that i followed the program for some time..on tv and forum discussions.. and since when she won it last year they said that she will be going to states to participate in JREF...:) ever sinse i use to bug them and ask when,,,??:) cause I didnt see any applications from her
and now seems like she will be In the program there was 2 more people who made in to finals.. one of them 18 yo guy.. who came to me for a reading like a year before show.. and he done my reading too.. have to say.. if he is psychic than I am Marlyn Monroe.. Some how he made in finale.. so that mean the show is staged.. and they promoted them to make money later for readings.. as I herd Vorotnikova would charge after show something about 2000$ for appointment..and since Russia is big country.. and many people in trouble she was fully booked for like 6 months... Any way.. hate when people make use of others when they in troubles. Looking forward to see her tasted:)

p.s. Just now read her application... must say.. STUPID thing.. at TV she performed all possible ways that she is real ( first sign that she is fake.. u cant be good at everything.. she read amazingly well people by photo.. looked for guys in car...looked for lost person and was able to say what happened in room etc... and she chose this for application...

William Smith

10th October 2008, 03:48 AM

pavel_do

10th October 2008, 03:58 AM

Hi :) Pavel :) since :) you :) seem :) to :) have :) time :) to :) post :) how :) about :) updating :) the :) forum :) on :) your :) progress:) ?

In :) the :) appropriate :) thread :) of :) course :).

:) sorry for smiles... i wrote it in word.. and often use smiles.. any way... as u can see reduced number of it...
No updates for now.. waiting for letter fro statistician who checking last proposed protocol..:) As soon as there is anything it will be there!
CHEERS MATE:)

rjh01

10th October 2008, 04:39 AM

If pavel do can write posts like above, then that would be good both for the forum and for himself. Any idea how the trick is done?

chillzero

10th October 2008, 04:41 AM

Pavel, Thanks for the update - next posts should be in your own thread please.

Please remember (everyone) to keep posts in this thread specifically on the topic of the claim in question.

fromdownunder

10th October 2008, 05:24 AM

As near as I can tell, she wants twenty coloured boxes, 19 of them empty and one with a person in it, and wants one hour with the boxes.

So a series of say 15 tests (a maths expert needed here) where there are 20 boxes, with some where there is a man who cannot speak Russian, some where there is a man who can speak Russian, some where there is a woman who can/cannot speak Russian, and some where there are 20 empty boxes might settle this. If she gets the Russian speaking man right x times out of y tests, she passes.

I assume that she cannot talk to the boxes, or try to weigh them, or touch them, or interact with them in other ways, but the above may be a starting point for a protocol - rather time consuming though at one hour per test.

Norm

pavel_do

10th October 2008, 05:48 AM

Pavel, Thanks for the update - next posts should be in your own thread please.

Please remember (everyone) to keep posts in this thread specifically on the topic of the claim in question.

Sorry.. and thank you.. just that he asked me here and I replyed to his post...:mglook

pavel_do

10th October 2008, 05:58 AM

If pavel do can write posts like above, then that would be good both for the forum and for himself. Any idea how the trick is done?

In the TV show I am sure some one told her.. so obviously if the test will be conducted in Russia they will make sure she gets hit.. through what ever candid camera or some one in room etc.. as it will be not about million of randy cause if she pass preliminary test than she will make much more in Russia.. by using it as advertising I am sure Russian TV (the channel that producing the program where she "won" will want to show it live and she will get money for it too... If test will be conducted in US.. she will bring her representatives and stuff and they will do there best to find the way to cheat:) She is not interested in Million as such and probably would not go for test just that they was stupid enough to announce it year a go... though as most of my colleagues.. they will take time to negotiate and invent something.. but lets see.. the time will kindly show us:)

Cuddles

10th October 2008, 07:12 AM

So a series of say 15 tests (a maths expert needed here) where there are 20 boxes, with some where there is a man who cannot speak Russian, some where there is a man who can speak Russian, some where there is a woman who can/cannot speak Russian, and some where there are 20 empty boxes might settle this. If she gets the Russian speaking man right x times out of y tests, she passes.

I assume that she cannot talk to the boxes, or try to weigh them, or touch them, or interact with them in other ways, but the above may be a starting point for a protocol - rather time consuming though at one hour per test.

I'm not sure why you'd want to complicate things so much. Finding the person out of 20 possible boxes has a 1/20 chance. Do that three times and you're well past 1/1000. There's no need to mess around with different people in different tests, all that is needed is to identify the one person a few times. The test itself really can be as simple as that, the only real problems are with ensuring that there is no way to find the person without using paranormal abilities.

Of course, another problem is one often raised that she may not be able to do it 100% accurately. That's easily solved by having more than one person to find in each run. The exact setup would obviously depends on her claimed accuracy and the odds required to be beaten, but given that 3 hours would give a total of 60 boxes to choose from, it wouldn't be at all hard to match pretty much any claim with any odds.

fromdownunder

10th October 2008, 07:56 AM

I'm not sure why you'd want to complicate things so much. Finding the person out of 20 possible boxes has a 1/20 chance.

My complicated method (and I agree that it is) would largely depend on exactly where she is in relation to the boxes, the actual nature of the boxes themselves, and what she is allowed to do during that one hour period.

Since the claim is that she can find a man who speaks Russian, I assume that she could not find a man who does not speak Russian, so if she did, that would be evidence that she was not accurate in her claim, and was possibly finding some way of cheating.

Norm

sthomson

10th October 2008, 11:55 AM

This is very easy to do if she is allowed to touch the box (or even to come within 1 foot or so) - body heat is an incredible thing, especially if it's allowed to build for one hour. I imagine that when we restrict Ms. Votonikova from approaching within, say, 1 meter of any box, she will refuse.

Czarcasm

10th October 2008, 12:06 PM

How the heck does one "discover" that they have the ability to find a Russian-speaking man hiding in a brightly-covered box in a large warehouse?? I find suspect all claims that involve elaborate setups involving a complicated presentation(or show) that one would never casually encounter in real life.
Like some of the more current MDC challenges.

IMST

10th October 2008, 01:25 PM

Can the claimant wear sound-proof headphones?

There's no such thing as sound proof headphones. Even really good hearing protection will give a reduction of only about 30 dB.

MattC

10th October 2008, 03:28 PM

sthomson makes a good point about body heat and body odors (sitting in the same place for an hour tends to leave signs beyond sight and hearing).

If it's required to be a warehouse-type setting, would rooms in the warehouse be an acceptable substitute as opposed to boxes? With building-quality recycled air present in each chamber, many of the olfactory methods of obtaining this result get removed from reasonable consideration.

I note that her suggested ability also doesn't seem to mention when she must be brought onto the scene. Is she required to be present throughout the entirety of this hour or can she be brought into the warehouse 55 minutes in? One would think that by remaining in the warehouse for an hour, tracking the differences in smells alone would suggest where the Russian-speaker is.

However, I suggest we go ahead with this challenge anyway. Given Jeff Wagg's proven track record for volunteering for these experiments, anyone have any ideas about how long it would take to teach him Russian?

~ Matt

NobbyNobbs

10th October 2008, 03:37 PM

Other things that may need to be pinned down, though I don't see how they could possibly matter:

--Does the man need to be a native speaker? Simply fluent? Know enough to get along? Able to read Russian without understanding what he is reading?

--Also, is the age of the man important?

Perhaps, to overcome one of the sensory problems, each box could have one of those automatic air fresheners that sprays the air every 5 minutes. This should mask any human odors sufficiently.

Can the claimant listen to music on headphones, sufficiently loud enough to overcome any incidental noise from her surroundings?

RoboTimbo

10th October 2008, 08:25 PM

You don't need to keep the man quiet. You only need to eliminate the possibility she can hear him.

Maybe have a video camera pointing at the 20 boxes and she looks at a monitor in another part of the building or in a separate building? No chance of hearing anything that way. I agree, the real problem is getting someone who speaks Russian to volunteer to keep still for an hour in an enclosed box.

Keep them in there for 24 hours and I'd be able to tell which box it is blindfolded.

I wonder if she will feel that she has to be in the same room and touch the boxes or something.

RoboTimbo

11th October 2008, 10:51 AM

guys... ye ye.. some say that every psychic convinced that he is real..
I sew program.. on Russian TV (via Internet) with this Lady performing Natalja VOROTNIKOVA in TV.. ( here it says Votonikova...though for TV she could have use not real surname)
<snip>

Hey Pavel,

Any chance of posting a link or finding it on YouTube? We'd have a better idea if we could see her perform.

MattC

11th October 2008, 11:47 AM

Perhaps this man-in-a-box thing is simpler than we think. Could the man in the box be asleep, or is some condition of wakefulness specified?

~ Matt

pavel_do

11th October 2008, 01:00 PM

Hey Pavel,

Any chance of posting a link or finding it on YouTube? We'd have a better idea if we could see her perform.

Hmm... There are some videos of the program ( full version actually of Season 1) on TNT Tv webs site.. ( they producing the program) and some on Youtube, but its all in Russian. and no subtitles...
She performs "miracles" there.. like describe person and things about his/her life by holding photo in sealed envelope and supposedly not knowing what photo inside.. she was sayng what happened in apartment and in the Field some years ago.. she was looking and found lost person in forest ( the was was hidden there on purpose)... she Found guy in car ..like in boxes.. and stuff... her claim with boxes.. is ridicules.. out of what she suppose to be able to perform..:) I know she is fake.. but since they was stupid enough to announce it on tv that she will go to US to prove Randy.. no actually they said that Randy heard about there program and got interested...:) and contacted them... it was like year ago.. since that I bugged there forum asking when is she coming.. as there is no application from her. and they baned me from forum:)

William Smith

11th October 2008, 01:06 PM

Hmm... There are some videos of the program ( full version actually of Season 1) on TNT Tv webs site.. ( they producing the program) and some on Youtube, but its all in Russian. and no subtitles...
She performs "miracles" there.. like describe person and things about his/her life by holding photo in sealed envelope and supposedly not knowing what photo inside.. she was sayng what happened in apartment and in the Field some years ago.. she was looking and found lost person in forest ( the was was hidden there on purpose)... she Found guy in car ..like in boxes.. and stuff... her claim with boxes.. is ridicules.. out of what she suppose to be able to perform..:) I know she is fake.. but since they was stupid enough to announce it on tv that she will go to US to prove Randy.. no actually they said that Randy heard about there program and got interested...:) and contacted them... it was like year ago.. since that I bugged there forum asking when is she coming.. as there is no application from her. and they baned me from forum:)

Can you provide some evidence for your statement "I know she is fake"?

pavel_do

11th October 2008, 01:45 PM

Can you provide some evidence for your statement "I know she is fake"?
I am basing it on my experience.. YOU CANT BE PERFECT IN ALL.. as she sort off is.. plus the way she performed.. I know it is not the way it works.. in all the options.. Like she held photo in envelope and was saing about the person.. supposedly she has psychometry or she is clairvoyant..to feel energy and read information she would need to hold it with bare hand.. Than when she was sort of describing person being blind folded... She was standing with her eyes covered in front of person sitting on chear and describing ... she was saing it is a woman..famous.. First being a woman her self I am sure she could smell nice perfume..than only woman wear... plus if perfume good it mean expansive.. plus they wouldn't invite cleaner lady for program..many aspects of her PERFORMANCE.. show that she is fake.. at least for me..

RoboTimbo

11th October 2008, 01:53 PM

Hmm... There are some videos of the program ( full version actually of Season 1) on TNT Tv webs site.. ( they producing the program) and some on Youtube, but its all in Russian. and no subtitles...
<snip>

Could you find a link and post it? I don't think we need to speak Russian to see what is happening and it would be very helpful to refer to when discussing protocol. We don't have a lot of information to go on as yet.

... I know she is fake..

Well, a good protocol will help sort that out.

William Smith

11th October 2008, 02:13 PM

I am basing it on my experience.. YOU CANT BE PERFECT IN ALL.. as she sort off is.. plus the way she performed.. I know it is not the way it works.. in all the options.. Like she held photo in envelope and was saing about the person.. supposedly she has psychometry or she is clairvoyant..to feel energy and read information she would need to hold it with bare hand.. Than when she was sort of describing person being blind folded... She was standing with her eyes covered in front of person sitting on chear and describing ... she was saing it is a woman..famous.. First being a woman her self I am sure she could smell nice perfume..than only woman wear... plus if perfume good it mean expansive.. plus they wouldn't invite cleaner lady for program..many aspects of her PERFORMANCE.. show that she is fake.. at least for me..

...and by "she is fake" you mean to say she advertises herself as psychic but uses trickery, right?
Are you saying she is a mentalist claiming real (for lack of a better description) psychic powers?

pavel_do

11th October 2008, 02:16 PM

Could you find a link and post it? I don't think we need to speak Russian to see what is happening and it would be very helpful to refer to when discussing protocol. We don't have a lot of information to go on as yet.

Well, a good protocol will help sort that out.

here is web site of the cnanel... http://www.tnt-tv.ru/programs/Extrasense/video/?page=10 and videos of the seson one.. u start from this page and watch it.. and here http://www.tnt-tv.ru/programs/Extrasense/video/?page=9 till N.9 there is finale..

RoboTimbo

12th October 2008, 06:35 AM

here is web site of the cnanel... http://www.tnt-tv.ru/programs/Extrasense/video/?page=10 and videos of the seson one.. u start from this page and watch it.. and here http://www.tnt-tv.ru/programs/Extrasense/video/?page=9 till N.9 there is finale..

Hm, I can't get there. I keep getting a gateway timed out error.

Cuddles

13th October 2008, 03:41 AM

My complicated method (and I agree that it is) would largely depend on exactly where she is in relation to the boxes, the actual nature of the boxes themselves, and what she is allowed to do during that one hour period.

But I think it is still far more complicated than would ever be necessary. Even assuming that she has some way of detecting that there is a person inside a box and that everything else she claims is just a distraction, it is easy to hide that by having a person inside every box, but only one Russian man. That way, all the problems that others have mentioned are solved, but you still only need a maximum of 3 tests with 20 boxes each. Messing around with a variety of different people being looked for at different times doesn't really add anything to the test at all, but is likely to not only complicate matters and make it take longer, but also to give her more opportunity to make excuses.

It does depend on hearing more about her acutal claim though. If she can only find Russian men and not anyone else, that's easy. On the other hand, if she just claims that Russian men are easier to find put she picks up a signal from any person, having people in all the boxes might mean she is unable to tell which is the right box. Of course, finding 20 people willing to be left in a box for an hour could also be a problem.

Since the claim is that she can find a man who speaks Russian, I assume that she could not find a man who does not speak Russian, so if she did, that would be evidence that she was not accurate in her claim, and was possibly finding some way of cheating.

I can't really think of any way that the target being able to speak Russian would allow her to cheat in a way that a target unable to speak Russian wouldn't. The person/people in boxes certainly won't be allowed to speak to her, so it would be just as paranormal if she could find anyone hidden in a box. Sure, it might mean her claim wasn't exactly accurate, but if she can actually demonstrate a paranormal ability to find people I wouldn't hold that against her, and I doubt the JREF would either.

Thabiguy

13th October 2008, 05:26 AM

It has been suggested by several posters that since the applicant claims that she can find a male who speaks Russian, perhaps you could hide people not fitting this description (females or people who do not speak Russian) in the other boxes.

I'd like to point out that this does not seem to be an option:
None of the other boxes can contain people

As for the rest, Jackalgirl's suggestions seem very reasonable. Use minimalistic, cheap cardboard boxes or curtains. Ensure adequate ventilation (easy if "boxes" have no ceiling). To deal with sounds, one could put a source of random hustles into every box. For example, a live rabbit might do it, but I'm not sure if the applicant would accept that.

pavel_do

13th October 2008, 06:00 AM

Hm, I can't get there. I keep getting a gateway timed out error.

Just tryed it myself and it works.

MattC

13th October 2008, 01:38 PM

I'm assuming that "box" is being used metaphorically, in the sense that "man in a box" implies a distinct sense of physical separation between the subjects. If this assumption is correct, it frees up the terms of the protocol immensely.

~ Matt

Loss Leader

13th October 2008, 02:19 PM

Okay, in trying to help the protocol along, I made some calls. I'm pleased to announce that I have been able to secure the use of the warehouse from the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.

ETA: God help us if she finds a crystal skull.

MattC

14th October 2008, 09:59 AM

Woe betide us all should she locate the Cross of Coronado.

~ Matt

petre

14th October 2008, 02:54 PM

Heaven forfend should she discover the Staff of Ra!

(it might just point her to the location of the man-containing box too)

petre

14th October 2008, 03:38 PM

Double post

RemieV

15th October 2008, 05:47 AM

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

Very complex set-up...

RoboTimbo

15th October 2008, 06:11 AM

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

Very complex set-up...

Boxes made of what material, cardboard?

remirol

15th October 2008, 06:46 AM

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

Very complex set-up...

I believe I'd walk around the warehouse saying, in Russian, "Tap the side of the box very gently and I'll pay you $500,000."

Whole bunch of misdirection and tomfoolery here, honestly. If the other boxes may not contain humans, I can't see a very good way to ensure the obvious techniques to find said human don't work -- ie. body heat, breathing, small noises inside. The inherent variable of "things a living, russian-speaking human might involuntarily do" is just too great here.

0m3g4

15th October 2008, 06:53 AM

My suggestion would be to allow several volunteers to search for the Russian at the same time as the claimant, using their non-paranormal powers like hearing or smelling. Should a percentage of these claimants identify the correct box that is significantly higher than suggested by chance alone, the test would be "unsuccessful", even if the claimant does find the right box too.

steenkh

15th October 2008, 06:58 AM

RoboTimbo

15th October 2008, 07:04 AM

I see no reason for coffin-like boxes, unless of course it is specified clearly in the protocol. In a warehouse environment, wooden boxes of sufficient size that a grown-up Russian-speaking man can sit comfortably on a chair inside, and with reasonable air vents on top, would probably be sufficient. Some precautions should be made to stop the test if the chair topples, or if the man get a coughing fit.

It is probably right that test would be more expensive than most tests, but since any expenses are covered by Ms Vorotnikova, this should not pose a particular problem.

Expense shouldn't be a problem anyway, since the claimant has obviously done this demonstration multiple times to test herself. She will have already had access to a warehouse and multiple boxes with a Russian speaking man inside one of them. We just need to hear some details from her about how she set it up before.

William Smith

15th October 2008, 07:05 AM

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

Very complex set-up...

Since I assume she will not agree to reasonable controls and precautions (headphones, masking of odor, etc.) and since the man in the box won't be tied up, gagged or drugged, there seems to be no ground for a proper test.

What did the academic witness have to say in this case?

Doubt

15th October 2008, 04:04 PM

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

Very complex set-up...

At some point it may even be necessary to define what she means by a Russian speaking man.

I would assume she wants a person who's native language is Russian.

Cuddles

16th October 2008, 03:20 AM

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans.

I know we're just supposed to accept the claim and try to work out how to test it, but this really does sound extremely suspicious. If she can only find a Russian speaking man, why can't there be humans in the other boxes? Either she can find any human and the presence of others would confuse her, in which case stipulating a Russian speaker is unecessary, or she can't find other humans, in which case she has no grounds to exclude them. The only possible reason I can think of for insisting on a test like this is that it is an attempt at a scam.

If she refuses to change these conditions, I don't see how a test is possible since, assuming she will be allowed near the boxes, there's really no way to eliminate communication between them, whether accidental or on purpose.

0m3g4

16th October 2008, 07:53 AM

I made a suggestion yesterday, how this could potentially be solved, any comments?

My suggestion would be to allow several volunteers to search for the Russian at the same time as the claimant, using their non-paranormal powers like hearing or smelling. Should a percentage of these claimants volunteers identify the correct box that is significantly higher than suggested by chance alone, the test would be "unsuccessful", even if the claimant does find the right box too.
[I can't edit out the somewhat confusing error anymore, sorry about that]

RoboTimbo

16th October 2008, 08:01 AM

I made a suggestion yesterday, how this could potentially be solved, any comments?

[I can't edit out the somewhat confusing error anymore, sorry about that]

That would probably provide an out for her to claim that they were messing up the quantum psychic energy fields or something. Or that the volunteers were also somehow paranormally able to perceive the man in the box.

How about she just has to remain 30 feet away from the boxes?

0m3g4

16th October 2008, 10:15 AM

That would probably provide an out for her to claim that they were messing up the quantum psychic energy fields or something. Or that the volunteers were also somehow paranormally able to perceive the man in the box.

How about she just has to remain 30 feet away from the boxes?

You are certainly right about the possible outs this may provide. On the other hand, both sides would have to agree on the protocol.

Marcus

16th October 2008, 10:52 AM

I know we're just supposed to accept the claim and try to work out how to test it, but this really does sound extremely suspicious. If she can only find a Russian speaking man, why can't there be humans in the other boxes? Either she can find any human and the presence of others would confuse her, in which case stipulating a Russian speaker is unecessary, or she can't find other humans, in which case she has no grounds to exclude them. The only possible reason I can think of for insisting on a test like this is that it is an attempt at a scam.

If she refuses to change these conditions, I don't see how a test is possible since, assuming she will be allowed near the boxes, there's really no way to eliminate communication between them, whether accidental or on purpose.

Yes, preventing any information from escaping such a box, such as sound, vibration, movement, or heat, would be so difficult as to render the test impractical.

CriticalThanking

16th October 2008, 01:32 PM

Is there any value in having some of the trials (randomly) be ones with no one in the box?

CT

Cuddles

17th October 2008, 04:01 AM

Is there any value in having some of the trials (randomly) be ones with no one in the box?

CT

I don't think so. The actual trials themselves would be extremely simple. All you need is a box with a person she can find, and some other boxes without. If she can find the person reliably enough (which will depend on her claim of accuracy and the odds the JREF want her to beat), then she wins.

The only problem is ensuring that she can't find the person by normal means. Messing around with the number of trials or boxes, or randomising the contents and things like that don't address that problem at all. There are only really two ways to address it:

Firstly, you can make sure that any signs that there is a person in the box are present in all the boxes - by having people in them. This would be easy in terms of the test, but more difficult in needing several people willing to be shut in boxes and lie still and quiet for a few hours. However, since she has apparently ruled this out, for whatever reason, it's not an option unless she changes her mind.

Secondly, you make sure that there can't possibly be any signs. And the trouble with this is that it is extremely difficult. You may be able to rule out things like simply talking or banging on the side, but accidental noises and more subtle things like temperature can easily give things away, but would be very difficult to eliminate.

However, we really need more information before we can say it's impossible or come up with ideas. If she doesn't need to be near the boxes, that makes things much easier. If she can be in a different room and look at them via a camera, for example, then there isn't a problem. On the other hand, if she needs to actually touch the boxes, I'm not sure cheating could be ruled out at all. We need to know what kind of boxes are used and what she will do to find the person before we can come up with anything solid.

dbalsdon

18th October 2008, 09:47 AM

However, since she has apparently ruled this out, for whatever reason,

For the reason you've stated.. that makes the test a hell of a lot fairer, and therefore, harder for her.

DevilsAdvocate

21st October 2008, 12:04 AM

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

Very complex set-up...What the heck is her stated ability? Being able to identify a box that contains a person is not paranormal. I’m sure there are people who work in security and shipping fields who are trained to identify boxes that contain living things. It is not a description of a paranormal ability. It is a description of a guessing game or challenge to see if you can discover her trick.

More and more applications seem to be falling into the category of publicity stunt, guessing game, or try to figure out my trick.

Let me get straight on her paranormal power here: She can identify, over the course of one hour, the presence of a person if

The person is male
The person can speak Russian
The person is in a box
The box is not in another room
The box is painted in a bright color
No other people are in boxes in the same room

Where does the paranormal come in? And even if it does, who cares? What relevance would there even be to a person who can identify a brightly painted box containing a Russian speaking male person in the same room with other boxes but no other boxes containing people?

In the whole history of the world, I doubt that anyone has ever needed someone with that particular paranormal ability. If you were looking for someone trapped in a box, she would be worthless if she was not in the same room as the person, which would make her pretty useless. And she would be useless if the guy was not in a box. And so on…

This seems like a challenge to the Challenge, and not a demonstration of a paranormal ability. If her ability is limited to this extent, it is either not paranormal or so worthless subject to chance or trickery to not be considered relevant.

If she can state an actual paranormal ability (like that she can detect the presence of a Russian speaking man in her near presence by telepathic means), then she needs to explain why the limits and control she specified are necessary. Otherwise, she has not established a paranormal ability, and is just saying that her paranormal ability is that she can pass a test of her own creation—which is just presenting a challenge to the Challenge and not actually stating a paranormal ability. ;)

NobbyNobbs

21st October 2008, 01:00 AM

Do the other boxes need to be empty, or simply devoid of human life?

If the latter, you could have mannequins in each box, and something to replicate human odor, and recordings of a chair squeaking or someone clearing their throat now and then.

(Yes, I know this is getting outrageously complicated, but I find the challenge of setting a protocol for this one, whether practical or not, interesting.)

Cuddles

21st October 2008, 03:19 AM

And even if it does, who cares? What relevance would there even be to a person who can identify a brightly painted box containing a Russian speaking male person in the same room with other boxes but no other boxes containing people?

In all fairness, that's really beside the point. It doesn't matter how useless an ability is, or how weird you'd have to be to discover you have it in the first place, all that matters is that it's paranormal.

Of course, one of the really fun things about science is that many things appear to be completely useless at first, but turn out to change the world. Steam power and gunpowder, for example, were both thought useful for nothing more than little toys for thousands of years, but look what they ended up doing.

This is not to say that I think this particular case has any chance of being anything other than a performance that will never go to test because the JREF won't let through a protocol that allows tricks, but that's not the point. Whatever you think about a particular claim, that fact that the ability appears pointless is not a valid reason to dismiss it.

In the whole history of the world, I doubt that anyone has ever needed someone with that particular paranormal ability.

Do horses count as boxes? I know some guys from Troy who would find it quite handy.

William Smith

21st October 2008, 06:48 AM

...
More and more applications seem to be falling into the category of publicity stunt, guessing game, or try to figure out my trick.
...

With the Challenge ending soon, the vultures come out at daylight. Of course, only a cynic would say that.

What matters is: The JREF accepted her application.

It seems to become a likely notch in the belt of the category: "Applicants accepted on a semi-ludicrous premise who STILL failed to proceed to a test."

RoboTimbo

21st October 2008, 10:08 AM

With the Challenge ending soon, the vultures come out at daylight. Of course, only a cynic would say that.

What matters is: The JREF accepted her application.

It seems to become a likely notch in the belt of the category: "Applicants accepted on a semi-ludicrous premise who STILL failed to proceed to a test."

A shame, isn't it? I'd like to afford her the benefit of the doubt. We don't have much to go on yet. I wonder if we'll be able to communicate with her or if she only speaks Russian. Maybe Pavel could help.

scratchy

21st October 2008, 09:14 PM

Re body heat: The human body produces heat comparable to a 100 watt light bulb. That would certainly effect air movement around the box when a person stays there for hours. If any light source in the room makes it possible to see dust, smoke or mist of any kind in the air, that alone could help her to identify the box even from say 10 meters away.

jojonete

22nd October 2008, 02:51 AM

At some point it may even be necessary to define what she means by a Russian speaking man.

I would assume she wants a person who's native language is Russian.
Assuming she has tested herself previously, who was in the box in her tests?
I mean, telepaths usually bring their own "receiver" to the test because they have tried their powers with that receiver and no one else (at least, not so thoroughly or not so successfully); so they can't be sure their powers work with other people. This idea could be also applied to this test (i.e. let her bring to the test someone from her previous tests). However I'm afraid this might render the whole claim untestable, as it would probably require to have someone else inside the box to check that the target-man doesn't make intentional sounds (what was that? was it an unintentional noise not audible from outside the box? was it a deliberately loud breathing sound?). Also, two persons produce more heat that one, bigger boxes are needed, etc. A big mess.

So I'd vote for the male being someone from a Russian skeptic organization (so no worries about intentional communication). About Doubt's question, I'd define a Russian-speaking male as "someone who Ms. Vorotnikova has known and approved some minutes before the test".
The idea that she must know the person in advance might raise concerns about what information she can get from him during this meeting, and how that information can be of use during the test (e.g. a particular odor from him, a breathing pattern, etc.). However, I guess this is not a big problem as long as she's not allowed to touch him (touching would imply more serious concerns as she could leave some object or "mark" on him that could allow detection by non-paranormal means).
Also, a previous baseline test would be nice (although this tortures a little more the poor man in the box, and it may worsen the body heat/odor concerns).

In summary: Ms. Vorotnikova knows Mr. X, and they talk for a few minutes so she can make sure he can speak Russian well enough, he is male enough, he's not wearing the wrong watch, etc. She is NOT allowed to touch him. Any doubt about the validity of Mr. X as a target aborts the whole test until a more suitable man can be found. Mr. X enters box number 4 in full view of Ms. Vorotnikova, and she is asked if she can perceive him in that box. If she can't, the test is considered failed. The double-blind test begins.

All in all, I think we need an answer to the question:
What is the shortest distance from the boxes she needs to be?

Crispy Duck

22nd October 2008, 04:18 AM

Maybe her ability would be confused by other humans, but not by other living things? If so, you could put some large animal - maybe a donkey or a pony - in every box, and the Russian-speaking man in just one. The general noise and heat of the animals moving would mask anything the man might do.

The downside is that the animal might react to the man's presence in an identifiable way - so that's probably a non-starter... unless it can be controlled for. Perhaps each box could be divided into two, so that the animal in the front half wouldn't be aware of the man in the back half?

It's all just guessing without knowing more about the applicant's specific technique, of course.

William Smith

22nd October 2008, 06:29 AM

Crispy Duck

22nd October 2008, 07:05 AM

I don't know, I guess it would depend on whether donkeys cost more or less per hour than Russian-speaking men. It would be for the applicant to decide whether she wanted to invest the necessary funds, in any case.

Depending on the definition of 'box', the whole show could be held at a stable at relatively little cost, I would think.

NobbyNobbs

22nd October 2008, 07:32 AM

Assuming she has tested herself previously, who was in the box in her tests?
I mean, telepaths usually bring their own "receiver" to the test because they have tried their powers with that receiver and no one else (at least, not so thoroughly or not so successfully); so they can't be sure their powers work with other people. This idea could be also applied to this test (i.e. let her bring to the test someone from her previous tests). However I'm afraid this might render the whole claim untestable, as it would probably require to have someone else inside the box to check that the target-man doesn't make intentional sounds (what was that? was it an unintentional noise not audible from outside the box? was it a deliberately loud breathing sound?). Also, two persons produce more heat that one, bigger boxes are needed, etc. A big mess.

So I'd vote for the male being someone from a Russian skeptic organization (so no worries about intentional communication). About Doubt's question, I'd define a Russian-speaking male as "someone who Ms. Vorotnikova has known and approved some minutes before the test".
The idea that she must know the person in advance might raise concerns about what information she can get from him during this meeting, and how that information can be of use during the test (e.g. a particular odor from him, a breathing pattern, etc.). However, I guess this is not a big problem as long as she's not allowed to touch him (touching would imply more serious concerns as she could leave some object or "mark" on him that could allow detection by non-paranormal means).
Also, a previous baseline test would be nice (although this tortures a little more the poor man in the box, and it may worsen the body heat/odor concerns).

In summary: Ms. Vorotnikova knows Mr. X, and they talk for a few minutes so she can make sure he can speak Russian well enough, he is male enough, he's not wearing the wrong watch, etc. She is NOT allowed to touch him. Any doubt about the validity of Mr. X as a target aborts the whole test until a more suitable man can be found. Mr. X enters box number 4 in full view of Ms. Vorotnikova, and she is asked if she can perceive him in that box. If she can't, the test is considered failed. The double-blind test begins.

All in all, I think we need an answer to the question:
What is the shortest distance from the boxes she needs to be?

I would think that, should she be allowed to talk to the man, it should be done through a prison-type window, so that any perfumes she might be wearing can't translate to him, to be detected later on.

Also, does the claimant need to see? Can she be led around the warehouse blindfolded? (Has this already been asked?)

JoeTheJuggler

14th November 2008, 11:16 PM

I would just send her back to the drawing board.

There doesn't seem any way to make this claim testable while ruling out non-paranormal ways of detecting which box contains the man.

Even if she doesn't consciously cheat, if she found him correctly 3 times in a row, I wouldn't say that gives compelling evidence of a paranormal ability.

The Professor

23rd November 2008, 07:27 PM

If she could do it three times without fail that would be paranormal.

JoeTheJuggler

23rd November 2008, 08:15 PM

If she could do it three times without fail that would be paranormal.

That would be a terribly wrong conclusion. You'd sooner postulate a hitherto unknown sense or paranormal power rather than suspect she was hearing, smelling, or sensing through some ordinary means which box has a man in it. Honestly, as it's described, I could probably find the one box with a man in it. I've got very sensitive hearing, and unless the guy is able to hold his breath every time I'm within earshot (and can simultaneously avoid making tiny involuntary movements) I'm sure I could pick out the correct box using my hearing. If I did this 3 times in a row without fail, you'd declare it a paranormal power.

You would be wrong. Luckily, you're not putting up a million bucks on such a challenge.

steenkh

24th November 2008, 12:20 AM

If she could do it three times without fail that would be paranormal.
Do what three times without fail? Just how close would she be allowed to be to the boxes? The man inside will need to breathe, and air holes need to be drilled. How can you be sure that it will not be possible to hear or smell the breath or perspiration through the holes, or measuring the temperature of the boxes with a clandestine infra-red sensor?

AndyD

24th November 2008, 06:59 AM

Hmmm, perform the test multiple times but use a Russian speaking man/men only a few of those times and use non-Russian-speaking man/men/women the other times (one at a time of course). This would presumably take care of many of the obvious "human" problems, like the noises, smells and movements that involuntarily occur whilst trying to survive in a box.

She'd need to get the Russian every time and never the others (or meet an agreed hit/miss rate)

Naturally, all subjects would need to be sufficiently ignorant of the details of the test and just do as they are told.

That said, what a weird gift to have been blessed with - and discovered :)

Cuddles

24th November 2008, 12:37 PM

Hmmm, perform the test multiple times but use a Russian speaking man/men only a few of those times and use non-Russian-speaking man/men/women the other times (one at a time of course).

Unfortunately she's already said:

She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

The Professor

24th November 2008, 06:18 PM

Hey guys ... It's HER PROTOCOL. She is supposed to design it. Why do you bring up stuff that is SO different from what she suggests?

Drs_Res

24th November 2008, 07:21 PM

It's a processes Dave.

It's her protocol, yes, but needs to be agreeded to by BOTH parties.
There are problems that need to be addressed to exclude cheating and information leakage.

One of my questions is, why is it so important that it be a box and can not be a room?
A room is just a box after all.

We are curious.

And just to be clear, we could suggest that the Russian man is on a different planet on the forum here, but this has no impact on the final protocol since we are just asking questions and making suggestions.

CriticalThanking

24th November 2008, 07:27 PM

Hey guys ... It's HER PROTOCOL. She is supposed to design it. Why do you bring up stuff that is SO different from what she suggests?

It is indeed her protocol. The protocol as outlined has been rejected by JREF for the sound reasons provided by RemieV. Nothing posted in this thread stops the applicant from altering the protocol or submitting an entirely different one.

As for why people are suggesting things, there are many reasons. You would have to ask each poster which applies. First, many people here have experience with experimental controls. A challenge applicant would do well to evaluate the suggestions offerred. The applicant is of course, free to accept or reject any of said items, with or without comment. No protocols will have been interfered with by these postings.

Because the applicant has not offerred details on what tests have been attempted and their results, the posters are left to suggest items that may or may not be in line with the applicant's abilities. Such speculation may provide insight to the applicant to amend the protocol. I have heard another applicant indicate a willingness to listen to help on a protocol - in fact rumor has it the applicant is always open to improvement (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=4224568&postcount=34). Posters such as Jackalgirl, steenkh, Cuddles, and others have been extremely helpful to MDC protocol discussions. My apologies to the many other posters I failed to mention who have been helpful and respectful.

Some people post in these threads to learn. They make suggestions and ask for critical review. It is an excellent way to learn about topics such as statistical validity, experimental controls, and self-evident results. Would that all applicants felt the same way.

It may be presumptuous of me, but I believe that some applicants might be helped in their protocol development by reading such posts for the reasons cited above. I must admit it is certainly possible that some applicants might not listen to advice offered and instead might delay submitting protocols, give protocols not meeting the JREF rules, insult helpful posters and the JREF, repeatedly question the integrity of Randi, the JREF, and even the existence of the million dollars in spite of evidence.

CT

The Professor

24th November 2008, 07:45 PM

It is indeed her protocol. The protocol as outlined has been rejected by JREF for the sound reasons provided by RemieV. Nothing posted in this thread stops the applicant from altering the protocol or submitting an entirely different one.

As for why people are suggesting things, there are many reasons. You would have to ask each poster which applies. First, many people here have experience with experimental controls. A challenge applicant would do well to evaluate the suggestions offerred. The applicant is of course, free to accept or reject any of said items, with or without comment. No protocols will have been interfered with by these postings.

Because the applicant has not offerred details on what tests have been attempted and their results, the posters are left to suggest items that may or may not be in line with the applicant's abilities. Such speculation may provide insight to the applicant to amend the protocol. I have heard another applicant indicate a willingness to listen to help on a protocol - in fact rumor has it the applicant is always open to improvement (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=4224568&postcount=34). Posters such as Jackalgirl, steenkh, Cuddles, and others have been extremely helpful to MDC protocol discussions. My apologies to the many other posters I failed to mention who have been helpful and respectful.

Some people post in these threads to learn. They make suggestions and ask for critical review. It is an excellent way to learn about topics such as statistical validity, experimental controls, and self-evident results. Would that all applicants felt the same way.

It may be presumptuous of me, but I believe that some applicants might be helped in their protocol development by reading such posts for the reasons cited above. I must admit it is certainly possible that some applicants might not listen to advice offered and instead might delay submitting protocols, give protocols not meeting the JREF rules, insult helpful posters and the JREF, repeatedly question the integrity of Randi, the JREF, and even the existence of the million dollars in spite of evidence.

CT

At first I may have agreed with you, but I found that many here are NOT trying to help the applicants, but instead are causing problems and distractions. Some even resort to name calling and snarkey bashing (not MY words here). How does this help?

As Critical thinkers, how does this seem fair in the slightest?

I am doing as you've suggested and I've been looking at other applicants threads and I see all of these problems.

She can find a Russian Speaking man in a box. Let her try.

CriticalThanking

24th November 2008, 08:06 PM

At first I may have agreed with you, but I found that many here are NOT trying to help the applicants, but instead are causing problems and distractions. Some even resort to name calling and snarkey bashing (not MY words here). How does this help?I am glad you believe that some are helpful. This is an open message board, filled with humans (I can't speak for Piscivore and a few others). It has been my experience that some humans are less helpful than others. Some can be downright rude! Does rudeness help? Of course not. I don't think anyone claimed that name calling helps. As you do in real life, ignore the noisemakers and appreciate those who try to help. You can always ask for a moderated thread if you feel the signal to noise ratio is too bad.

As Critical thinkers, how does this seem fair in the slightest?Critical thinking is a process - a way of evaluating and presenting information to make (hopefully) better decisions. Crash testing ideas into reality is in no way "fair" - but it is the best way we know of to explore reality. An idea making a testable prediction is true, false, or does not have the necessary conditions to determine truth/falsehood. Protocol design is intended to create some of those conditions.

To state the obvious, there is no test of critical thinking abilities to be able to join this forum. If there were, many members, and many MDC applicants might not be allowed to post here.

I am doing as you've suggested and I've been looking at other applicants threads and I see all of these problems.Excellent!

She can find a Russian Speaking man in a box. Let her try.I agree with you 100%- let her try once there is a mutually agreeable protocol.

CT

AndyD

24th November 2008, 08:24 PM

Originally Posted by AndyD
Hmmm, perform the test multiple times but use a Russian speaking man/men only a few of those times and use non-Russian-speaking man/men/women the other times (one at a time of course).
Unfortunately she's already said:

Originally Posted by RemieV View Post
She can only find a Russian-speaking man. None of the other boxes may contain humans. They must all be boxes, and not rooms.

You misunderstood me, I think.

I mean, use one human at a time, in one box but perform multiple tests and use the Russian in only some of those tests. So sometimes she should walk around and sense nothing, even though there is a person (non-Russian) in a box. She will only sense something when the Russian is the person in the box.

AndyD

24th November 2008, 08:36 PM

She can find a Russian Speaking man in a box.

Who couldn't? Without a useful protocol, almost anyone could do it. I would just listen for someone speaking Russian and choose that box.

Since only one box is allowed to contain a person, even a deaf person could look for the box shaking violently as the captive Russian tries to get out.

Without a useful protocol, stated ability (finding a box with a Russian-speaking man in it) is as near universal as seeing/feeling/smelling which slice of bread has been toasted.

Let her try.

She can do it as often as she likes, on her own time under her own conditions. Maybe you would be willing to give her money to do it but I don't imagine JREF will be interested without a useful protocol that eliminates mundane reasons for success.

JoeTheJuggler

24th November 2008, 09:34 PM

Hey guys ... It's HER PROTOCOL. She is supposed to design it. Why do you bring up stuff that is SO different from what she suggests?
Her protocol allows many ways of a successful outcome that need not use a paranormal power.

Since her protocol is unacceptable, I recommended sending her back to the drawing board.

Others here are trying to come up with a way to make what she is proposing into an actual protocol that would leave no doubt that something paranormal has happened if she succeeds.

Really, JREF isn't going to give away a million dollars to someone because he or she has very acute hearing or sense of smell.