2012 USA Presidential Election thread

[Francesca R]

Not too early is it?

Apparently UK betting firm William Hill has taken £10m so far. Obama is 4/5 (odds) favourite. Palin is 3/1 to be republican candidate and 7/1 to win the White House. [William Hill] (http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO2284232&aff=bgenBB#) [Ladbrokes] (http://www.ladbrokes.com/lbr_sports?AFF_ID=495&action=go_generic_link&level=EVENT&key=212304268&category=SPORTS)

One spread-betting site has Dem 54/55 and Rep 42/50. [intrade] (https://www.intrade.com/pda/contracts.jsp?eventID=84327&groupID=8628&className=Politics)

(I'm kind of kidding with this thread, but let's see)

[Sword_Of_Truth]

Palin won't be the candidate.

No failed vice-presidential candidate has ever gone on to a succesful political career.

Geraldine Ferraro who ran with Mondale in 1984, never made a comeback on the political scene.

Lloyd Bensen, VP candidate under Dukakis similarly dropped off the radar after losing.

Jack Kemp, bottom half of the 1996 Dole ticket also dropped out of the public arena.

Joe Leiberman, while he has kept his senate seat, has alienated his party and will never have the support to do anything more than sit as an independent in the senate.

John Edwards campaign melted down and burned out well before his extra-marital affair became public, he's done for too.

The idea of a Palin 2012 campaign just frankly absurd given the history.

[Francesca R]

Your view seems to be corroborated by this (https://www.intrade.com/pda/contracts.jsp?eventID=84328&groupID=8628&className=Politics). Must be the daft Brits putting money on her . . .

[Fitter]

Palin won't be the candidate.

No failed vice-presidential candidate has ever gone on to a succesful political career.

Geraldine Ferraro who ran with Mondale in 1984, never made a comeback on the political scene.

Lloyd Bensen, VP candidate under Dukakis similarly dropped off the radar after losing.

Jack Kemp, bottom half of the 1996 Dole ticket also dropped out of the public arena.

Joe Leiberman, while he has kept his senate seat, has alienated his party and will never have the support to do anything more than sit as an independent in the senate.

John Edwards campaign melted down and burned out well before his extra-marital affair became public, he's done for too.

The idea of a Palin 2012 campaign just frankly absurd given the history.
And don't forget that FDR guy. Whatever became of him anyway?

[Puppycow]

And don't forget that FDR guy. Whatever became of him anyway?

Was FDR on a losing ticket as veep?

[Francesca R]

Yes, in 1920?

ETA http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1920

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Based upon my polling data, I am declaring Barack Obama the winner in 2012.

Note: I am 4 years ahead of the major networks. I called this years race 14 hours ahead of them.

[Giggywig]

Regardless of history, I wouldn't give Palin that good a shot at anything. How many weeks was she hidden away from media interviews this time around? You can't be the front man and hope nobody interviews you because you're liable to turn even easy questions into wonderful SNL material.

[Francesca R]

Based upon my polling data, I am declaring Barack Obama the winner in 2012.Well you need to buy the pants off that 55 offered contract then.

[Moon-Spinner]

Regardless of history, I wouldn't give Palin that good a shot at anything. How many weeks was she hidden away from media interviews this time around? You can't be the front man and hope nobody interviews you because you're liable to turn even easy questions into wonderful SNL material.

I agree that Palin doesn't have a chance at the presidency, she was seen as a big liability this time around, and I doubt most republicans would want to take a chance with her again (IMHO). I predict that even if she jumps in during the first round of 10 to 12 Republican hopefuls, she will drop out pretty early. People will have a few good laughs over it, and life will go on...

[drkitten]

Obama is 4/5 (odds) favourite. Palin is 3/1 to be republican candidate and 7/1 to win the White House.

Is there any way I can buy the other end of those bets? (I.e. I'll offer 1/8 that Palin does NOT win the White House).

Actually, it's probably not worth it. Offering 1/8 means I'll make 12% on my money over the next four years. I think I can do better with fur-bearing trout ranches.

[drkitten]

Was FDR on a losing ticket as veep?

So was John Tyler, who eventually became president.

But I think that's the lot.

[dudalb]

Unless she has a total image makeover and comes off as much better informed then she was in 2008, she does not have a chance in 2012. I think most people outside the hardline conservative base understand her "Just Plain Folks" act alone is a road to disaster.

[Cuddles]

Must be the daft Brits putting money on her . . .

There's nothing daft about it. If you get it right, you're rich. If you get it wrong, the world will end a month later anyway so being poor is the least of your worries.

[Suddenly]

I like Newt Gingrich as a longshot for several reasons, but I want more than 50-1 on him.

[Pardalis]

And don't forget that FDR guy. Whatever became of him anyway?

But FDR wasn't a complete idiot.

[patrick767]

Palin doesn't have a chance. She got ripped to shreds in just two months of campaigning this year despite efforts to shield her from the press. She's never make it through the nearly two year long primary and general election campaign.

[Random]

John Edwards campaign melted down and burned out well before his extra-marital affair became public, he's done for too.

Actually, the collapse of the Edwards campaign had nothing to do with the campaign itself. The media simply refused to cover his campaign. They were so caught up in the story of the first female or black nominee that Edwards was just ignored. Edwards would pull in five times the votes of Rudy Gulia911, and get one fifth the media coverage. He had to spend a lot of time in each primary state just letting people know he was running. He was keeping up with Clinton and Obama in terms of support, but the media just sort of decided that he wasn't interesting and ignored him.

It was really odd.

[TragicMonkey]

Palin can be the Dean for the Republicans in 2012: they let her run for the nomination, everybody goes "OMG crazy" when she has her public insanity moments, then at the last minute suddenly she vanishes and a much less obviously crazy candidate gets the nomination, and everybody sighs in relief.

I think she should get her own show on VH1. Something like the Anna Nicole Show. No! Exactly like the Anna Nicole Show! Let's see if she can win a feud with Bobby Trendy. Or perhaps she could be a in Real World/Surreal Life kind of show. I think she'd interact in an interesting fashion with Puck, RuPaul, the dwarf guy from Ausin Powers, Charo, and the loser from Full House who supposedly that Alanis Morrissette song is about. And definitely New York. New York should be included in every reality show. That woman is a one-person Jerry Springer show. You know you're bad when even Flava Flav is afraid of you. I'd give Palin five minutes before they started spitting on each other and snatching at each other's weaves.

[Amapola]

I think ol' Mitt Romney will be the next Republican to be seriously considered for president.

I have no idea who he'd pick as a running mate but I doubt it would be Palin. Romney is too clever.