Crank phone call almost starts war

[A W Smith]

Wow,

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,463027,00.html


ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A man pretending to be India's foreign minister called Pakistan's president and talked in a "threatening" manner during the Mumbai terror attacks, prompting Pakistan to put its air force on high alert, a security official and a news report said Saturday.


If someone did this to Kruschev during the Cuban missile crisis. We probably wouldn't be here today.

[RecoveringYuppy]

'"No, Dmitri. There must be some mistake."

[lionking]

Not quite on topic, but what would the US do if India nukes Pakistan?

[WildCat]

Not quite on topic, but what would the US do if India nukes Pakistan?
Which part?

;)

[PhantomWolf]

Wow,

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,463027,00.html

If someone did this to Kruschev during the Cuban missile crisis. We probably wouldn't be here today.

This is why there really is a hotline between the Whitehouse and the Kremlin.

[Small Town Jesus]

That's not how you start a war.

THIS is how you start a war!

r3BO6GP9NMY

[dudalb]

No, here is how you start a war:


http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_18840493c27702a994.png (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=14521)


Fort Sumter.

[Darth Rotor]

Wow,

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,463027,00.html

If someone did this to Kruschev during the Cuban missile crisis. We probably wouldn't be here today.

May I ask what complete moron answered the phone in Pakistan before patching the call to the President?

I smell something here that is caught in a net.

[GreyICE]

Not quite on topic, but what would the US do if India nukes Pakistan?

Um, what option do we have? Wait for the damn nuclear war to run its damn course. Other option is interfering, which would trigger global nuclear war. Not an acceptable scenario.

They don't really have the really dangerous weapons, just atom bombs, so the amount of damage they can do is limited to the Hiroshima scale. We'd end up cleaning it up, but it's nowhere near the threat of a true fusion bomb. We can't interfere because that would up the ante, to the fusion bomb level, which isn't a level our planet can play in, and support vertebrates.

[tomwaits]

India and Pakistan have fought a war since acquiring nuclear weapons (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kargil_War), and they were not used, despite widespread fear.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Um, what option do we have? Wait for the damn nuclear war to run its damn course. Other option is interfering, which would trigger global nuclear war. Not an acceptable scenario.

There certainly are other options. We're already "interfering"--pumping billions of dollars into the region. We should be able to have some say for our money, particularly in Pakistan.

At the very least, one option is to cut off the flow of money if either side takes military action against our wishes.

I agree our military presence (especially nuclear retaliation) would be a horrible mistake, but it doesn't take much imagination to think that there are other ways the U.S. could respond.

ETA: It'd be nice at least to get an accounting of how our money is being spent. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/27/pakistan.usa)

[CapelDodger]

At the very least, one option is to cut off the flow of money if either side takes military action against our wishes.

That could only work on Pakistan, and not necessarily there. The US has little or no leverage on India.

[CapelDodger]

Not quite on topic, but what would the US do if India nukes Pakistan?

More to the point, what would China do? They're downwind, after all. Then again, so is India, so the scenario is implausible.

[CapelDodger]

Wow,

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,463027,00.html

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — A man pretending to be India's foreign minister called Pakistan's president and talked in a "threatening" manner during the Mumbai terror attacks, prompting Pakistan to put its air force on high alert, a security official and a news report said Saturday



Since the Pakistani airforce was presumably on a defensive alert, this was not going to start a war. That would be India's call.

[GreyICE]

There certainly are other options. We're already "interfering"--pumping billions of dollars into the region. We should be able to have some say for our money, particularly in Pakistan.

At the very least, one option is to cut off the flow of money if either side takes military action against our wishes.

I agree our military presence (especially nuclear retaliation) would be a horrible mistake, but it doesn't take much imagination to think that there are other ways the U.S. could respond.

ETA: It'd be nice at least to get an accounting of how our money is being spent. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/27/pakistan.usa)

Any point before the bombs start falling? Sure. US has a lot of options. After that point? Not so many. Don't see how it's rational to suggest that we'd even have a clear line of communication to the government at that point. They'd be in bunkers or ashes after the first exchange.

[Cicero]

Um, what option do we have? Wait for the damn nuclear war to run its damn course. Other option is interfering, which would trigger global nuclear war. Not an acceptable scenario.

They don't really have the really dangerous weapons, just atom bombs, so the amount of damage they can do is limited to the Hiroshima scale. We'd end up cleaning it up, but it's nowhere near the threat of a true fusion bomb. We can't interfere because that would up the ante, to the fusion bomb level, which isn't a level our planet can play in, and support vertebrates.

Where have you been? India produced their hydrogen bomb ten years ago.

[GreyICE]

Where have you been? India produced their hydrogen bomb ten years ago.
Current estimate is, to the best of my knowledge, like 2-300 nuclear plutonium-based weapons, and zero hydrogen based ones. I know they have like a ton or two of reactor-grade plutonium, but enough tritium for a Hydrogen bomb?

I would be very surprised if I missed that. I don't think anyone in the world estimates they have that, I don't even think they're trying for it.

And if you're trying to compare a hydrogen bomb to a plutonium one, don't. Just don't. As well as to compare hand grenades to laser guided munitions.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Any point before the bombs start falling? Sure. US has a lot of options. After that point? Not so many. Don't see how it's rational to suggest that we'd even have a clear line of communication to the government at that point. They'd be in bunkers or ashes after the first exchange.

I guess I don't follow. It sounded like you were saying what if one side nuked a city of the other side. You asked if the U.S. should interfere (meaning, I think, retaliate on behalf of the country that got nuked, possibly leading to a world-wide escalation). I agree with you that that would be a horrible idea, but I disagree that there's nothing else we could do.

The rest of the world, even in that hypothetical, would still exist. The attacking government would still exist. I think we could go through any number of international bodies to hold that country responsible for their actions. This could take MANY forms short of the nuclear option.

[GreyICE]

I guess I don't follow. It sounded like you were saying what if one side nuked a city of the other side. You asked if the U.S. should interfere (meaning, I think, retaliate on behalf of the country that got nuked, possibly leading to a world-wide escalation). I agree with you that that would be a horrible idea, but I disagree that there's nothing else we could do.

The rest of the world, even in that hypothetical, would still exist. The attacking government would still exist. I think we could go through any number of international bodies to hold that country responsible for their actions. This could take MANY forms short of the nuclear option.

I don't me to sounds snide, but "Such as?"

Communications are right out. Even assuming the leaders are still alive, it's not like we could communicate with them (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse). So any hypothetical action cannot be communication.

Now held responsible for their actions after the fact, sure. We could send in some troops... unless they had some bombs left... or our troops disliked radiation...

Actually, scratch that. No troops. We could set sanctions on two countries devastated by nuclear war, because that wouldn't kill millions more. We could threaten to bomb their cities, because conventional munitions are really threatening during a nuclear war, and because they'd obviously still have cities.

I guess we could promise to write really mean things about them in history books.

[JoeTheJuggler]

I don't me to sounds snide, but "Such as?"

Communications are right out. Even assuming the leaders are still alive, it's not like we could communicate with them (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse). So any hypothetical action cannot be communication.
How long do you think the EM pulse lasts? Yeah, I get that we probably couldn't communicate with the city or maybe even nearby cities while the bomb is exploding or for some minutes afterward.

I understood the hypothetical to be a limited nuclear exchange that left both nations in tact. I think it was "What would we do if India nukes Pakistan?"

I think we would certainly join with the international community in trying our best to get India not to continue. We would do all we can to get Pakistan NOT to retaliate, if their leadership is even in a position to do so. A first strike might very well have taken out the command structure that could "push the button".

Yes--diplomacy. We can meet with whatever leaders of Pakistan remain or emerge--obviously not in a recently nuked city!


Now held responsible for their actions after the fact, sure.
Yes. What's wrong with that? How is that not an option to what we could do if India nuked Pakistan short of turning it into a global nuclear war?

I imagine we could also join with an international force in completely taking control of the aggressive country (India in the hypothetical) if they weren't immediately responsive to diplomacy. (Is there any power likely to defend India's actions in such a hypothetical?) At the very least, we could make sure they weren't allowed to have nukes again.

ETA: I forgot to mention that we could get behind a massive global effort to provide humanitarian aid for the survivors (on either side). A world-wide bone marrow donation program, food and safe water, etc.

Meanwhile, in the real world, there is a LOT we can do. Number one we can hold Pakistan accountable for the money we're pouring in there in an effort to stop terrorist activity that comes from within their borders. That's clearly not happening at this point.

[GreyICE]

How long do you think the EM pulse lasts? Yeah, I get that we probably couldn't communicate with the city or maybe even nearby cities while the bomb is exploding or for some minutes afterward.I don't know. Take your cell phone. Now take a sledgehammer. Good 15 pound sledgehammer. Now smash the cell phone with a sledgehammer as hard as you possibly can.

Now stare at the remnants. How long until you can make calls with that cell phone? Minutes? I mean certainly it will be fine in an hour or two, right?

No, seriously, how long until you can call me with that cell phone?

I understood the hypothetical to be a limited nuclear exchange that left both nations in tact. I think it was "What would we do if India nukes Pakistan?" Pakistan returns fire. That's pretty much a given. Now that all communications are basically permanently down, all silos revert to their 'in the event of a nuclear attack' instructions. Assuming that the silos have been instructed to regard the attack as limited, and have correctly identified the aggressor as Pakistan, they will be targeting prearranged targets in India. Every silo will proceed to hit their prearranged target, because every silo will have to assume that all other silos are lost.

Each silo will then launch its missiles at its predefined targets. These targets will be varied, to assure total destruction of India's military capacities in the event that India has successfully undertaken a first strike nuclear action against the majority of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. As no silo will be capable of communicating with another in a reasonable manner, this will result in significant overlap.

India's silos will then go into their prearranged return fire targets.

This is the scenario if we are lucky.

If we are unlucky the following will occur - India and/or Pakistan will have designated non-Indian/Pakistan targets, or will not be able to identify the originating country of the nuclear strike.

In this event this may target countries outside of India/Pakistan. In this event, China and Russia will be drawn in. Since China/Russia are within short-range missile distance from those places, they will have minutes to correctly identify the originating countries. If they do, India and Pakistan will merely receive a full retaliation strike from Russia and China. This will effectively end the war.

If Russia and/or China do not successfully use that several minute window to identify the originating country, their communications are now down. This will trigger pre-arranged strikes upon the United States, with Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).

This is the beginning of global nuclear war. The end of global nuclear war is the near-complete annihilation of the human race.

This entire exchange will occur within 30 minutes. Within 30 minutes of the first exchange, we will know if the casualties will be limited to several hundred million, or if we will be looking at the 5-6 billion range.

I think we would certainly join with the international community in trying our best to get India not to continue. We would do all we can to get Pakistan NOT to retaliate, if their leadership is even in a position to do so. A first strike might very well have taken out the command structure that could "push the button". Understand this - there is no communication once the bomb lands. The prearranged targets WILL be hit. The war WILL begin. This is mutually assured destruction.


Yes--diplomacy. We can meet with whatever leaders of Pakistan remain or emerge--obviously not in a recently nuked city! No we cannot. We cannot contact them to arrange a meeting. Even if we could, how could they travel? By car? None work. By plane? Same. By train? Ditto. By boat? Only if it has sails or poles.

They will be sailing to meet our leaders in dinghies.


Yes. What's wrong with that? How is that not an option to what we could do if India nuked Pakistan short of turning it into a global nuclear war?

I imagine we could also join with an international force in completely taking control of the aggressive country (India in the hypothetical) if they weren't immediately responsive to diplomacy. (Is there any power likely to defend India's actions in such a hypothetical?) At the very least, we could make sure they weren't allowed to have nukes again.

ETA: I forgot to mention that we could get behind a massive global effort to provide humanitarian aid for the survivors (on either side). A world-wide bone marrow donation program, food and safe water, etc.

Meanwhile, in the real world, there is a LOT we can do. Number one we can hold Pakistan accountable for the money we're pouring in there in an effort to stop terrorist activity that comes from within their borders. That's clearly not happening at this point. Okay, you simply have no idea what a nuclear war is. That is okay, but please attempt to understand the issue. There is no communication grid, no ability to travel, no computers, no electricity, and no power. When a nuclear war is in progress, there is nothing.

And the war will occur in the space of 30 minutes, a few hours at most.

[Lonewulf]

I don't know. Take your cell phone. Now take a sledgehammer. Good 15 pound sledgehammer. Now smash the cell phone with a sledgehammer as hard as you possibly can.

Now stare at the remnants. How long until you can make calls with that cell phone? Minutes? I mean certainly it will be fine in an hour or two, right?

No, seriously, how long until you can call me with that cell phone? I remember reading that it's possible to protect against an EMP, especially if you're underground.

[GreyICE]

I remember reading that it's possible to protect against an EMP, especially if you're underground.

Sure, all you need is a Faraday cage. A real one, not a pretty good one like microwaves have. A few feet of steel-reinforced concrete is pretty good too.

Doesn't much matter. Sure the nuclear silos are fine, but communications networks are rather by definition networks. Not like radios work all that well even assuming the electronics are okay, radio is just another form of radiation.

[Darth Rotor]

Dear sir, you sound like such a sourpuss.
This entire exchange will occur within 30 minutes. Within 30 minutes of the first exchange, we will know if the casualties will be limited to several hundred million, or if we will be looking at the 5-6 billion range.
And with the ensuing nuclear winter, if that prediction is correct, we have solved global warming for the near term, possibly forever.

How about that silver lining to the (mushroom) cloud? :D

Also, yes, on EMP and comms and nuclear war's possible chain reaction.

"Live every day as though it were your last, as one day, you are sure to be right ... sinde the bloody Indians and Pakistanis will eventually start it, the Russians and Chinese will be asleep at the wheel, and our own ICBM EW network won't be able to help them ID the origin since some jackasses in Tech Support changed the master crypto key, buggered it up, and are doing a reset right when Murphy knows it would be the worst time, ever, for Tech Support to be doing stuff like that, and we won't be able to get the message through."

*flash to STRATCOM HQ*

General Ripper: "Rotor, I said take the message to Garcia, damnit! Get that missile origin info to Moscow and Beijing, now, via SATCOM!"

Darth Rotor: "Sorry, sir, but Garcia's location just melted, right along with the SATCOM signal. Been nice knowing you, General. See you in other parts, quarks, sir, if quarks can see."

DR

[jj]

May I ask what complete moron answered the phone in Pakistan before patching the call to the President?

I smell something here that is caught in a net.

And that has sat, overnight, in the net, in tropical temperatures.