2012 Mayan Prediction: need help

[headscratcher4]

I've not followed other threads on this....but am looking for some help with some quick web resources.

I've a 10 year old nephew who watched one or more of those terrible History Channel-type expose's on the alleged end of the world in 2012. He has become obsessed with it ... believing, as a ten-year old might, the so-called "experts" on the TV who claim the world will end. He wants to hoard water, food, etc.

I want to try and provide him with some reasurance that not only is the alleged prediction bogus and pretty meaningless, but that there are lots of predictions for the end of the world that blow-up in the predictor/hyper's face(s).

Can anyone recommend some easilly understandable web resources I might tap into and share that detail this Mayan prediction and its many flaws, and that has a rational explaination for these things that a smart 10 year old might appreciate (He's too young to remeber the hub-bub over Y2K, for example)?

Was there ever a kid's supplement in Skeptic on this topic that I might access, etc?

Thanks for any help.

Happy New Year and tick, tick, tick...to 2012.

[Bell]

Show him last years calendar and ask him what happened after December 31.

Eta: Link (http://www.universetoday.com/2008/05/19/no-doomsday-in-2012/)

[headscratcher4]

thanks for the link!

[Cuddles]

Can anyone recommend some easilly understandable web resources I might tap into and share that detail this Mayan prediction and its many flaws, and that has a rational explaination for these things that a smart 10 year old might appreciate (He's too young to remeber the hub-bub over Y2K, for example)?

The Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayan_calendar) is quite good.

However, it's important to note that even your request is begging the question. There is no Mayan prediction. You don't need to explain to your nephew why the Mayan's were wrong, you need to explain that they never made the claims attributed to them in the first place. The Mayan Long Count calendar is a linear calendar that extends into the future indefinitely. It is based on cycles, just as our calendar is based on cycles of weeks, months and years, and 2012 just happens to contain the end of one of the longest cycles. The Mayans didn't believe the world would end in 2012 any more than we believe it will end at the end of every year. The so-called predictions are nothing more than the delusional ramblings of doom-mongers who understand nothing about the Mayan calendars.

[Fredrik]

I was going to say what Cuddles just said, but since he already said it, I'll just add that there's a Mayan creation myth that says that the gods made two unsuccessful attempts to create the world before the successful third one. It also says that the second world ended at the end of the 12th baktun. (A baktun is 144000 days). The Mayan calender uses baktuns as a unit of time, and the 13th baktun will start on December 21, 2012.

I'm guessing that this creation myth has contributed to the ridiculous claims about that date. One thing you could mention to your nephew, in addition to the fact that the Mayans actually didn't predict that the world would end, is that the world is much older than 12 baktuns. This proves that the story that people have interpreted in absurd ways is false to begin with.

[GT/CS]

If he thinks the world is going to end in 2012 why does he want to stock up on water, since he won't be around to need it? Or is he hoping to be one of the lucky few?

Does anyone know if there is there any agreement among the 2012ers whether there will be human survivors from this event?

[headscratcher4]

He's 10. He thinks that he, somehow, will survive the global catastrophy. I appreciate all of the advice...it is keeping him up at night (he's a very sensitive lad). I remember being similarly impressed at his age with the magical thinking that attaches to Nostrodomus. I think he's too young to fully appreciate the Beyond the Fringe sketch:

The End of the World
From the revue that really launched the 'satire' boom, the 1961 Beyond The Fringe. The cast: Peter Cook, Jonathan Miller, Dudley Moore and Alan Bennett. They are seated, huddled, on the top of a mountain...


Jon : How will it be, this end of which you have spoken, Brother Enim?
Omnes: Yes, how will it be?
Peter : Well, it will be, as 'twere a mighty rending in the sky, you see, and the mountains shall sink, you see, and the valleys shall rise, you see, and great shall be the tumult thereof.
Jon : Will the veil of the temple be rent in twain?
Peter : The veil of the temple will be rent in twain about two minutes before we see the sign of the manifest flying beast-head in the sky.
Alan : And will there be a mighty wind, Brother Enim?
Peter : Certainly there will be a mighty wind, if the word of God is anything to go by...
Dudley : And will this wind be so mighty as to lay low the mountains of the earth?
Peter : No - it will not be quite as mighty as that - that is why we have come up on the mountain, you stupid nit - to be safe from it. Up here on the mountain we shall be safe - safe as houses.
Alan : And what will happen to the houses?
Peter : Well, naturally, the houses will be swept away and the tents of the ungodly with them, and they will all be consuméd by the power of the heavens and on earth - and serve them right!
Alan : And shall we be consumed?
Peter : Con..sum..éd? No, we shall not be consuméd - we shall be up on the mountain here, you see, while millions burn, having a bit of a giggle.
Jon : When will it be, this end of which you have spoken?
Omnes : Aye, when will it be - when will it be?
Peter : In about thirty seconds time, according to the ancient pyramidic scrolls... and my Ingersoll watch.
Jon : Shall we compose ourselves, then?
Peter : Good plan, Brother Pithy. Prepare for the End of the World! Fifteen seconds...
Alan : Have we got the tinned food?
Dudley : Yes.
Peter : Ten seconds...
Jon : And the tin-opener?
Dudley : Yes.
Peter : Five - four - three - two - one - Zero!
Omnes : (Chanting) Now is the end - Perish The World!
A pause

Peter : It was GMT, wasn't it?
Jon : Yes.
Peter : Well, it's not quite the conflagration I'd been banking on. Never mind, lads, same time tomorrow... we must get a winner one day.
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[TX50]

He's 10. He'll have forgotten it by next week. Buy him a nintendo or something.

[headscratcher4]

True in all likelyhood...but I see it as a teachable moment...especially as his mom thinks that if something is on the History Channel...it has to be true...