More TV nonsense, I think.

[jj]

Ok, I flipped past one of those silly shows on the "Man Channel" or whatever it is (57 on Seattle Comcast) at midnight last night.

The question: Which natural disaster is most likely to kill you.

It wasn't lightning at 700,000:1 or a tsunami at 400,000:1, according to their numbers, it was an asteroid at 200,000:1.
Ok, that's what they said. I knew one person who got killed by lightning, and 3 who have been hit (all by being lightning rods on golf courses in the midwest). I know one person (barely, he ran the music school my kids went to) who got nailed in the big Tsunami on the beach in Thailand. I know of nobody who's been hit, or nearly hit, or was even close to, a meteorite.

I knew of two killed by terrorists (WTC), amd maybe 50 killed by VC, but those aren't natural disasters I suppose.


Lousy sampling, I know.

Anyone got a clue to the real numbers?

[Mashuna]

Ok, I flipped past one of those silly shows on the "Man Channel" or whatever it is (57 on Seattle Comcast) at midnight last night.

The question: Which natural disaster is most likely to kill you.

It wasn't lightning at 700,000:1 or a tsunami at 400,000:1, according to their numbers, it was an asteroid at 200,000:1.
Ok, that's what they said. I knew one person who got killed by lightning, and 3 who have been hit (all by being lightning rods on golf courses in the midwest). I know one person (barely, he ran the music school my kids went to) who got nailed in the big Tsunami on the beach in Thailand. I know of nobody who's been hit, or nearly hit, or was even close to, a meteorite.

I knew of two killed by terrorists (WTC), amd maybe 50 killed by VC, but those aren't natural disasters I suppose.

Lousy sampling, I know.

Anyone got a clue to the real numbers?

I've seen this type of claim before, and IIRC, it's a rather disingenuous one. The figure of 200,000:1 was based on the predicted death toll if a large asteroid hit the Earth.

[UncaYimmy]

Maybe they were talking about the odds of it killing you should it actually occur. For example, an anvil dropped on my head is more likely to kill me than a stab wound, but I'm more likely to get stabbed (not being a coyote and all).

[Subduction Zone]

They are probably basing it on some very bad statistics. Every so often a "dinosaur killer" asteroid will hit the Earth and cause mass extinctions. They probably took a figure for the odds of a dinosaur killer hitting the Earth (and a bad one at that) and "averaged it out". The actual number of deaths by asteroids in human history is zero since the Earth has not been hit by one during that period. The number of know meteor deaths is also zero (meteor are smaller than asteroids and much more common). You can check out this link if you want to:

http://http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/astronomy/perseids_shower_sidebar_000809.html

[jj]

They are probably basing it on some very bad statistics. Every so often a "dinosaur killer" asteroid will hit the Earth and cause mass extinctions. They probably took a figure for the odds of a dinosaur killer hitting the Earth (and a bad one at that) and "averaged it out". The actual number of deaths by asteroids in human history is zero since the Earth has not been hit by one during that period. The number of know meteor deaths is also zero (meteor are smaller than asteroids and much more common). You can check out this link if you want to:

http://http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/astronomy/perseids_shower_sidebar_000809.html

That's the only way I can explain it, indeed. They left out landslides, volcanos, tornados, hurricanes, ...

[Third Eye Open]

It's 'Spike' TV, and the show is 'Manswers' FYI.

I don't think this kind of show is going to put much effort into finding actual answers, as opposed to entertaining ones.

[jj]

It's 'Spike' TV, and the show is 'Manswers' FYI.


Than you. It's not on my list of "10 most watched channels". But for the silly graphic of an asteroid going through the earth (say what?) I wouldn't have stopped there long enough for the audio to pick up.


I don't think this kind of show is going to put much effort into finding actual answers, as opposed to entertaining ones.

Sure does look that way.

[T.A.M.]

perhaps they analyzed the estimated # of asterioids of significant size that have struck earth, and over what time period, and then based on that came up with a number for the odds of it occurring again, etc....

playing with numbers is so much fun.;)

TAM:)

[zooloo]

Fog


:)

[The Man]

It wasn't lightning at 700,000:1 or a tsunami at 400,000:1, according to their numbers, it was an asteroid at 200,000:1.


Well, I don’t think they’ll be showing that asteroid one on a 1000 ways to Die (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1000_Ways_to_Die) anytime soon (at least I hope not).

[Beerina]

I've seen this type of claim before, and IIRC, it's a rather disingenuous one. The figure of 200,000:1 was based on the predicted death toll if a large asteroid hit the Earth.



Exactly. (teeeeeeny tiny chance of huge asteroid) * (7 billion people) = 1/200,000 chance for you to die


Technically risk is separate from likelihood of occurance. The overall analysis is (damage from the risk) * (likelihood of the risk happening).

[Beerina]

On the other hand, apparently a 10-story asteroid just blew by the Earth yesterday, about 40,000 miles away. "Tunguska-esque", it was described as being.

[Vorticity]

Exactly. (teeeeeeny tiny chance of huge asteroid) * (7 billion people) = 1/200,000 chance for you to die

Well, let's see. What are some vaguely plausible numbers?

For simplicity, let's consider only "dinosaur-killer" asteroids, which I'll (rather arbitrarily) define as asteroids large enough to kill off, say, half of the human population. How often would we expect such an asteroid to hit the earth? Based on what little I know about the history of impacts, I'd guess those occur very roughly every 100 million years. If we say that my average expected lifespan is roughly 100 years (remember, people will live a little longer in the future) then the probability of such an impact occurring in my lifetime is about:

Probability of impact
= (100 years) x (1/100 million impacts/year)
= 1/1,000,000 impacts

But since each one only kills off about half the population, the probability of me dying from an impact in my lifetime is:

Probability of impact death
= (Probability of impact) x (Probability of death, given an impact)
= (1/1,000,000) x (1/2)
= 1/2,000,000

This is 1 order of magnitude lower in probability than their estimate. However, it was a very rough calculation, and did not take into account statistics relating to smaller impacts, which would happen more frequently. It is just barely possible that someone somewhere did do this calculation more rigorously, and arrived at the 1/200,000 figure. If so, then this would be a perfectly valid estimate of my chance of dying from an asteroid/meteor strike in my lifetime.

[quarky]

Black ice is the big killer around here. With cars tossed in.

[Starthinker]

Wow, how do you even start with all the different locations and scenerios? Living in Iowa I can safely say I probably won't be killed by a landslide or tsunami but we dodge tornados now and then and the lightning is crazy at times. If I recall, there was a local headline a week or so ago that said "Most Likely Natural Cause of Death May Surprise You" and it listed freezing as above tornadoes and lightning.

[TX50]

"Most Likely Natural Cause of Death May Surprise You"

That'd be heart attack or stroke, presumably.

[quarky]

It used to be being killed by your government, if you count all countries, last century.

[jj]

Black ice is the big killer around here. With cars tossed in.

That's more in line with my expectations, too.

[Macoy]

It used to be being killed by your government, if you count all countries, last century.

At least things are looking up.

[MG1962]

Well isn't the Tsunami figure mussed up anyway. The wave doesn't actually kill you most of the time. Its the drowning. So wouldn't the figure for that be more in line with accidental drowning victims.

[Cuddles]

As others have said, it's just bad statistics. Play around with probabilties of impacts and theoretical damage and forget about the fact that we don't know of anyone ever actually being killed.

The actual number of deaths by asteroids in human history is zero since the Earth has not been hit by one during that period.

Yes it has (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event#Recent_pre-historic_impact_events).

The number of know meteor deaths is also zero (meteor are smaller than asteroids and much more common).

A meteor refers to any object that enters the Earth's atmosphere, including asteroids. Meteoroid is the term for things that are smaller than asteroids, although there is no general definition of either.

It's also worth bearing in mind that although there are no known human deaths due to impacts, there have almost certainly been some. You don't get 10 megaton explosions randomly dropping out the sky and flattening thousands of square kilometres without occasionally catching a person in them.

[quarky]

Being hit on the head by a meteor is serious bad luck.
They say it hurts worse than lightening.

[Whiplash]

Being hit on the head by a meteor is serious bad luck.
They say it hurts worse than lightening.

If a big enough Asteroid to cause mass extinctions ends up hitting the Earth in my lifetime, I hope it does land right on my head. I'd rather not try to eek out survival in the aftermath. Same with massive global nuclear war. Let the warhead land on my home.