ReasonedFaith
17th November 2003, 04:58 PM
Sorry for the cross post but...now that I see this UFO spotted in Norway fun...
I will point out that even Randi and a "Science Observer" on the International Space Station can leap to silly conclusions about "new discoveries" and such, relative to a simple sun reflection. As I posted in Science section earlier today....
**********************************************
I've sent e mails to Randi clarifying the highly probable cause of the Space mystery" so called "discovery"
by Astronaut Ed Lu, which Randi seems gaga over in his 11/7 commentary. I thought perhaps he would
update this item, but hasn't so far.
With commentary language and phrases like "..mysterious flashes of light.." and "previously unreported
phenomenon", and "Ed commented on his discovery.."....,
I feel compelled to add a rather "skeptical" note of explanation here. Particularly since Randi states of Ed
Lu "True scientist that he is, Ed
has tried to rule out other obvious explanations."
UH, he didn't rule out (or even seem remotely aware of), the most obvious explanation of all though.
As I explained to Randi, (in info from e mails to him, see below), the phenonmena reported by Astronaut Ed
Lu as described and in the locale observed, perfectly matches what would be EXPECTED from a well
understood (and observed by millions), orbital phenomena called "Iridium Flares". These have been
observed not only by millions terrestrially, but also by some previous observers in the Internationl Space
Station.
For those unaware of what Iridium flares are, the basic info as already outlined to JREF and Randi in
emails, provided again here below for reference.
See links below for some pictures and explanations. First link is a dual "mysterious flash of light lasting
only a second" in the observation area of the aurora...oops, not mysterious after all, it is two near
simultameous Iridium flares photographed by an observer on the I.S.S., apparently during the time
Astronaut Ed Lu was on board! (Don't know how he missed knowing about it). Other photos, explanations of
Iridium and the flares, etc. in the other links.
No "Mystery discovery" here. Just a government employee "Science Officer" who seems woefully out of
touch with what millions of sky observers (and some other ISS Astronauts), already know about the orbital
light phenomena caused by the largest and best known satellite constellation currently whizzing around the
planet!!
Double Iridium flare photo in obseration direction of Aurora taken from International
Space Station
http://science.nasa.gov/ppod/y2003/...doubleflare.htm
Note: Off topic.... for the UFO believing ignorant out there, what HAY they can surely make of these kinds
of photos at the links below, with the 'Art Bells' of the world. And anyone can shoot photos like these on
virtually a daily basis if they so desire!! No doubt we've seen a few "Iridium flares" over the years being
foisted off as "unexplained" UFO sightings.
http://satobs.org/iridpix.html
http://satobs.org/iridpix2.html
********
Here's one of the reasons a Space station based observer is going to see Iridium flares most commonly in
obervational direction of polar Auroras. It is where the high concentration spot is for orbital path of the Sats
and also provides the correct Sat MMA reflective viewing angle.
http://satobs.org/image/irid3d.jpg
***********
See the flares yourself from Earth using this link! (Easy, no calculations required, naked eye observation)
http://www.heavens-above.com/
*********************************************
Previous info provided to Randi and JREF below, on 11/7 and again on 11/14;
Randi,
I sent you an e mail last week regarding last week's "Space Mystery"
piece about astronaut Ed Lu's occasional witnessing of "flashes as
bright as brightest star" in the region of the Auroras, observed from
ISS. He felt this was a discovery of a potentially newly observed
phenomena. Actually, it is highly unlikely there is any "mystery" or
"discovery" in this case. A bit more research confirms my opinion that
what he describes is a phenomenon already seen by millions, and
understood by hundreds of thousands, even including previous I.S.S.
science officers who have seen (and even photographed), the same.
As opined to you last week, (e mail referenced below), it's a high
probability we're talking about "Iridium flares". A well known, well
publisized, and well understood source of orbital visual phenomena which
perfectly matches his description of a bright, intense 1 to 2 second or
so flare up, which appears visiually as a very bright star flare up.
These are easily seen from Earth observers an hour or so before sunrise
and again within the first hour or two after sunset. Iridium flares
should be frequently spotable from I.S.S. if an observer knows when and
where to look, but most particularly, by observing close to the polar
regions, (thus in proximity to Aurora Ed was observing). They are caused
by sun reflections from the highly reflective MMA's of Iridium sats.
With 66 + sats a couple dozen spares orbiting in a Polar orbit
constallation, and 14 orbit cycles/day each, coupled with a
concentration / optimum viewing angles closest to the poles, any ISS
based observer spending several hours looking at Aurora phenomena should
spot Iridium flares on occasion, and primarily in the area of the Aurora
/ polar regions. These will vary in intensity from medium to very bright
star, and even up to much brighter than the brightest star, Sirius, by
several orders of magnitude.
Out of curiosity I did a search to see if other astronauts had observed
Iridium flares from the International Space Station. I got several hits,
including a photo taken from the I.S.S. of two simultaneous Iridium
flares in the area of Aurora Astralus. Again, this would be the area of
expected sighting by ISS observers since the Iridium Sats are in high
velocity longitudinal polar orbits and thus most closely concentrate in
the polar regions where an ISS observer should be able to see several
per day, due to array angles relative to sun/ and ISS orbital dynamics
profile relative to Iridium's. (See attached constellation orbital
scheme pic for reference)
Note an excerpt below from one of the science officer observers on the
I.S.S. who was witnessing Iridium flares from I.S.S. during his
observation time there. I have also attached many images of Iridium
flares from Earth and also the image of two separate flares shot from
observer on the Space Station in general vicinity of Aurora (mentioned
above), where they are most frequently seen from ISS. I have also
attached a representation of the Irid constellation's orbital scheme.
Note that on Iridium flare photos, due to their relatively high "LEO"
velocity, appear as a streak due to shutter speed, similar to a
meteroite. However, when visually observed, they appear much more like a
bright starlike "Nova" type flash that builds to a peak and then
subsides within a second or two. You visually observe just a trace of
the orbital motion, compared to what the film images capture.
As I mentioned last week, I am quite surprised that Astronaut Lu is
unaware of this well understood manmade visual orbital phenomena which
so closely matches the description of what he observed. Particularly
since other science officers and astronauts have seen these multiple
times and even photographed them. Virtually no one closely involved with
any space program involving astronomical observation activity is unaware
of "Iridium flares".
By now, anyone Ed has mentioned this to, has likely explained to him
what he was seeing. A few hundred thousand people who pay attention to
what goes on in space, will not be impressed by the "discovery" of what
was already well known, well understood, and observed by millions on
Earth, and also seen and photographed by other space based observers on
the I.S.S. Hopefully Nature magazine will not publish a speculative
peice and embarass themselves.
Of course, there is always the possibility Ed was seeing something
entirely different than the Iridium flares. But based on his visual
description and observed location in proximity to Aurora, what he
describes perfectly matches what would be expected from the ISS as to
visual characteristics and location. I think this mystery is not likley
to be an "Unsolved" one.
Mike L
Aerospace Engineer
**************************************************
*********************************************
weblog: Sunday, March 23, 2003
Iridium flares seen from orbit.
Many people are familiar with the phenomenon known as "Iridium flares",
when
sunlight reflects off the flat, polished antennas of an Iridium
satellite, creating a
very brief but spectacular flash seen from the ground that can easily
outshine the
brightest stars in the sky. Iridium flares have been well-known for
several years by
astronomers and other observers, and there are even sites that allow
people to
view the next predicted flares for their location...
ISS science officer Don Pettit, who, using a
modified version of a flare prediction program by Ron Matson, was able
recently to
observe several flares from orbit. The observations are challenging,
given that the
station is orbiting at about 8 kilometers a second and there are
limited observation
ports, but Pettit has apparently become more proficient at spotting
them,
according to a followup message posted by Reeves this weekend. Spotting
Iridium
flares is not part of the regular activities on the station, Reeves
notes, but he
believes that Pettit "is indeed learning to be a better observer, and
this will pay
dividends in other ISS programs."
Posted: 3:08 PM ET (2008 GMT)
**************************************************
*************************************************
My previous e mail to you at JREF on this subject;
>>Subject: "Myserious" flashes of light around the auroras.
Date:
Fri, 07 Nov 2003 14:52:29 -08
To:
randi@randi.org
Randi,
The mysterious bright flashes, are quite possibly, maybe even most
probably "Iridium Flares".
Those polar orbit LEO (Low Earth Orbit), satellites in the 66 satellite
Iridium constellation, reflect sunlight from their MMA arrays in a
short brilliant flash of 1 or 2 seconds that (if you are perfectly
aligned), can be much brighter than the brightest star, and vary on down
the scale to much lesser but easily visible.
Due to their solar array angles, and polar orbit routine relative to the
ISS, (which bunches them up to maximum proximity around the polar
regions), they would most likley flash the ISS folk in the Aurora
regions with great frequency. I'm surprised Astronaut Lu did not mention
this possibility since this LEO constellation light phenomena most
closely resembles the description you gave, and is very well known to
anyone with any knowledge of orbital light phenomena. I have seen the
"Iridium flares" and watched them with my children many many times
during night celestial event viewings.
(I'm a rocket scientist by profession by the way, well Comm. Satellite
but with a lot of orbital, launch, and space environmental factors to
deal with).
Below is a handy website (one of many), which gives excellent and easy
instructions on how to see bright "Iridium flares" in any area, by time,
latitude/longitude, magnitude, direction, and altitude/Azimuth. No
calculations are required. For example, I don't know where you are in
Florida, but if you were directly 25 Kilometers East of Miami tonight at
6:31 PM, you could look due South at a 177 deg Azimuth and you would see
a -8 (very bright, much brighter than Mars or Sirius on the logarithmic
celestial brightness magnitude scale), flare. Very impressive. Many who
have seen flares inadvertantly and don't know what they are, think they
have seen UFOs, short "Supernovas" (preposterous of course in that time
frame), or other weird unexmplained phenomena. I've seen the flares on
ocassion without even specifically looking for them.
You can plug in your location by Country and City, and the site does all
the work. The same site tracks visible viewings for ISS and all kind of
other orbital naked eye visible sats & space junk such as discarded
launch vehicles.
http://www.heavens-above.com/
Mike L
**************************************************
************************************
Original JREF Commentary excerpts;
>>SPACE MYSTERY
"Astronaut Dr. Edward T. Lu safely returned from orbit two weeks ago
from a six-month-plus tour as
science officer on the International Space Station (ISS)...
"A very interesting event took place during Ed's six months as the
Science Office aboard the ISS.
There were mysterious flashes of light that he saw while studying
Earth's aurora from orbit. Ed was an astrophysics
researcher before becoming an astronaut in 1994, and he estimates that
he spent 100 hours watching the northern and
southern lights during his half-year in space....
... But on three occasions — 11 July, 24 September
and 12 October — he saw something markedly different that puzzled him:
flashes as bright as the brightest stars, which
lasted only a second and then blinked off again. ...
.... True scientist that he is, Ed
has tried to rule out other obvious explanations. The flashes he and
Malenchenko saw didn't look to him to be the
sunlight reflecting from the fellow-traveler dust particles that
accompany the ISS. Those flashes last longer than a
second. Nor, he thinks, were they meteors entering the atmosphere below
the ISS; they would have appeared as linear
streaks. Since the mysterious flashes only appeared in the direction of
the aurora, Ed knows that the viewing conditions
were wrong for a satellite or other artificial object. He also checked
weather maps, which showed no lightning storms
below him at the time of his observations. All of this led him to the
tentative conclusion that he had seen a previously
unreported phenomenon, probably associated with the aurora.
In an interview with Nature Magazine by telephone from the space
station, Ed commented on his discovery: "It's a good
thing to get this out in the open, so that people who do know more can
start to think about it." Yes, of course it is. It will
probably be several months before Ed will be able to get around to
examining the evidence in detail and discussing it
with aurora specialists, who should really be very interested in
something so novel and unexpected..."<<
I will point out that even Randi and a "Science Observer" on the International Space Station can leap to silly conclusions about "new discoveries" and such, relative to a simple sun reflection. As I posted in Science section earlier today....
**********************************************
I've sent e mails to Randi clarifying the highly probable cause of the Space mystery" so called "discovery"
by Astronaut Ed Lu, which Randi seems gaga over in his 11/7 commentary. I thought perhaps he would
update this item, but hasn't so far.
With commentary language and phrases like "..mysterious flashes of light.." and "previously unreported
phenomenon", and "Ed commented on his discovery.."....,
I feel compelled to add a rather "skeptical" note of explanation here. Particularly since Randi states of Ed
Lu "True scientist that he is, Ed
has tried to rule out other obvious explanations."
UH, he didn't rule out (or even seem remotely aware of), the most obvious explanation of all though.
As I explained to Randi, (in info from e mails to him, see below), the phenonmena reported by Astronaut Ed
Lu as described and in the locale observed, perfectly matches what would be EXPECTED from a well
understood (and observed by millions), orbital phenomena called "Iridium Flares". These have been
observed not only by millions terrestrially, but also by some previous observers in the Internationl Space
Station.
For those unaware of what Iridium flares are, the basic info as already outlined to JREF and Randi in
emails, provided again here below for reference.
See links below for some pictures and explanations. First link is a dual "mysterious flash of light lasting
only a second" in the observation area of the aurora...oops, not mysterious after all, it is two near
simultameous Iridium flares photographed by an observer on the I.S.S., apparently during the time
Astronaut Ed Lu was on board! (Don't know how he missed knowing about it). Other photos, explanations of
Iridium and the flares, etc. in the other links.
No "Mystery discovery" here. Just a government employee "Science Officer" who seems woefully out of
touch with what millions of sky observers (and some other ISS Astronauts), already know about the orbital
light phenomena caused by the largest and best known satellite constellation currently whizzing around the
planet!!
Double Iridium flare photo in obseration direction of Aurora taken from International
Space Station
http://science.nasa.gov/ppod/y2003/...doubleflare.htm
Note: Off topic.... for the UFO believing ignorant out there, what HAY they can surely make of these kinds
of photos at the links below, with the 'Art Bells' of the world. And anyone can shoot photos like these on
virtually a daily basis if they so desire!! No doubt we've seen a few "Iridium flares" over the years being
foisted off as "unexplained" UFO sightings.
http://satobs.org/iridpix.html
http://satobs.org/iridpix2.html
********
Here's one of the reasons a Space station based observer is going to see Iridium flares most commonly in
obervational direction of polar Auroras. It is where the high concentration spot is for orbital path of the Sats
and also provides the correct Sat MMA reflective viewing angle.
http://satobs.org/image/irid3d.jpg
***********
See the flares yourself from Earth using this link! (Easy, no calculations required, naked eye observation)
http://www.heavens-above.com/
*********************************************
Previous info provided to Randi and JREF below, on 11/7 and again on 11/14;
Randi,
I sent you an e mail last week regarding last week's "Space Mystery"
piece about astronaut Ed Lu's occasional witnessing of "flashes as
bright as brightest star" in the region of the Auroras, observed from
ISS. He felt this was a discovery of a potentially newly observed
phenomena. Actually, it is highly unlikely there is any "mystery" or
"discovery" in this case. A bit more research confirms my opinion that
what he describes is a phenomenon already seen by millions, and
understood by hundreds of thousands, even including previous I.S.S.
science officers who have seen (and even photographed), the same.
As opined to you last week, (e mail referenced below), it's a high
probability we're talking about "Iridium flares". A well known, well
publisized, and well understood source of orbital visual phenomena which
perfectly matches his description of a bright, intense 1 to 2 second or
so flare up, which appears visiually as a very bright star flare up.
These are easily seen from Earth observers an hour or so before sunrise
and again within the first hour or two after sunset. Iridium flares
should be frequently spotable from I.S.S. if an observer knows when and
where to look, but most particularly, by observing close to the polar
regions, (thus in proximity to Aurora Ed was observing). They are caused
by sun reflections from the highly reflective MMA's of Iridium sats.
With 66 + sats a couple dozen spares orbiting in a Polar orbit
constallation, and 14 orbit cycles/day each, coupled with a
concentration / optimum viewing angles closest to the poles, any ISS
based observer spending several hours looking at Aurora phenomena should
spot Iridium flares on occasion, and primarily in the area of the Aurora
/ polar regions. These will vary in intensity from medium to very bright
star, and even up to much brighter than the brightest star, Sirius, by
several orders of magnitude.
Out of curiosity I did a search to see if other astronauts had observed
Iridium flares from the International Space Station. I got several hits,
including a photo taken from the I.S.S. of two simultaneous Iridium
flares in the area of Aurora Astralus. Again, this would be the area of
expected sighting by ISS observers since the Iridium Sats are in high
velocity longitudinal polar orbits and thus most closely concentrate in
the polar regions where an ISS observer should be able to see several
per day, due to array angles relative to sun/ and ISS orbital dynamics
profile relative to Iridium's. (See attached constellation orbital
scheme pic for reference)
Note an excerpt below from one of the science officer observers on the
I.S.S. who was witnessing Iridium flares from I.S.S. during his
observation time there. I have also attached many images of Iridium
flares from Earth and also the image of two separate flares shot from
observer on the Space Station in general vicinity of Aurora (mentioned
above), where they are most frequently seen from ISS. I have also
attached a representation of the Irid constellation's orbital scheme.
Note that on Iridium flare photos, due to their relatively high "LEO"
velocity, appear as a streak due to shutter speed, similar to a
meteroite. However, when visually observed, they appear much more like a
bright starlike "Nova" type flash that builds to a peak and then
subsides within a second or two. You visually observe just a trace of
the orbital motion, compared to what the film images capture.
As I mentioned last week, I am quite surprised that Astronaut Lu is
unaware of this well understood manmade visual orbital phenomena which
so closely matches the description of what he observed. Particularly
since other science officers and astronauts have seen these multiple
times and even photographed them. Virtually no one closely involved with
any space program involving astronomical observation activity is unaware
of "Iridium flares".
By now, anyone Ed has mentioned this to, has likely explained to him
what he was seeing. A few hundred thousand people who pay attention to
what goes on in space, will not be impressed by the "discovery" of what
was already well known, well understood, and observed by millions on
Earth, and also seen and photographed by other space based observers on
the I.S.S. Hopefully Nature magazine will not publish a speculative
peice and embarass themselves.
Of course, there is always the possibility Ed was seeing something
entirely different than the Iridium flares. But based on his visual
description and observed location in proximity to Aurora, what he
describes perfectly matches what would be expected from the ISS as to
visual characteristics and location. I think this mystery is not likley
to be an "Unsolved" one.
Mike L
Aerospace Engineer
**************************************************
*********************************************
weblog: Sunday, March 23, 2003
Iridium flares seen from orbit.
Many people are familiar with the phenomenon known as "Iridium flares",
when
sunlight reflects off the flat, polished antennas of an Iridium
satellite, creating a
very brief but spectacular flash seen from the ground that can easily
outshine the
brightest stars in the sky. Iridium flares have been well-known for
several years by
astronomers and other observers, and there are even sites that allow
people to
view the next predicted flares for their location...
ISS science officer Don Pettit, who, using a
modified version of a flare prediction program by Ron Matson, was able
recently to
observe several flares from orbit. The observations are challenging,
given that the
station is orbiting at about 8 kilometers a second and there are
limited observation
ports, but Pettit has apparently become more proficient at spotting
them,
according to a followup message posted by Reeves this weekend. Spotting
Iridium
flares is not part of the regular activities on the station, Reeves
notes, but he
believes that Pettit "is indeed learning to be a better observer, and
this will pay
dividends in other ISS programs."
Posted: 3:08 PM ET (2008 GMT)
**************************************************
*************************************************
My previous e mail to you at JREF on this subject;
>>Subject: "Myserious" flashes of light around the auroras.
Date:
Fri, 07 Nov 2003 14:52:29 -08
To:
randi@randi.org
Randi,
The mysterious bright flashes, are quite possibly, maybe even most
probably "Iridium Flares".
Those polar orbit LEO (Low Earth Orbit), satellites in the 66 satellite
Iridium constellation, reflect sunlight from their MMA arrays in a
short brilliant flash of 1 or 2 seconds that (if you are perfectly
aligned), can be much brighter than the brightest star, and vary on down
the scale to much lesser but easily visible.
Due to their solar array angles, and polar orbit routine relative to the
ISS, (which bunches them up to maximum proximity around the polar
regions), they would most likley flash the ISS folk in the Aurora
regions with great frequency. I'm surprised Astronaut Lu did not mention
this possibility since this LEO constellation light phenomena most
closely resembles the description you gave, and is very well known to
anyone with any knowledge of orbital light phenomena. I have seen the
"Iridium flares" and watched them with my children many many times
during night celestial event viewings.
(I'm a rocket scientist by profession by the way, well Comm. Satellite
but with a lot of orbital, launch, and space environmental factors to
deal with).
Below is a handy website (one of many), which gives excellent and easy
instructions on how to see bright "Iridium flares" in any area, by time,
latitude/longitude, magnitude, direction, and altitude/Azimuth. No
calculations are required. For example, I don't know where you are in
Florida, but if you were directly 25 Kilometers East of Miami tonight at
6:31 PM, you could look due South at a 177 deg Azimuth and you would see
a -8 (very bright, much brighter than Mars or Sirius on the logarithmic
celestial brightness magnitude scale), flare. Very impressive. Many who
have seen flares inadvertantly and don't know what they are, think they
have seen UFOs, short "Supernovas" (preposterous of course in that time
frame), or other weird unexmplained phenomena. I've seen the flares on
ocassion without even specifically looking for them.
You can plug in your location by Country and City, and the site does all
the work. The same site tracks visible viewings for ISS and all kind of
other orbital naked eye visible sats & space junk such as discarded
launch vehicles.
http://www.heavens-above.com/
Mike L
**************************************************
************************************
Original JREF Commentary excerpts;
>>SPACE MYSTERY
"Astronaut Dr. Edward T. Lu safely returned from orbit two weeks ago
from a six-month-plus tour as
science officer on the International Space Station (ISS)...
"A very interesting event took place during Ed's six months as the
Science Office aboard the ISS.
There were mysterious flashes of light that he saw while studying
Earth's aurora from orbit. Ed was an astrophysics
researcher before becoming an astronaut in 1994, and he estimates that
he spent 100 hours watching the northern and
southern lights during his half-year in space....
... But on three occasions — 11 July, 24 September
and 12 October — he saw something markedly different that puzzled him:
flashes as bright as the brightest stars, which
lasted only a second and then blinked off again. ...
.... True scientist that he is, Ed
has tried to rule out other obvious explanations. The flashes he and
Malenchenko saw didn't look to him to be the
sunlight reflecting from the fellow-traveler dust particles that
accompany the ISS. Those flashes last longer than a
second. Nor, he thinks, were they meteors entering the atmosphere below
the ISS; they would have appeared as linear
streaks. Since the mysterious flashes only appeared in the direction of
the aurora, Ed knows that the viewing conditions
were wrong for a satellite or other artificial object. He also checked
weather maps, which showed no lightning storms
below him at the time of his observations. All of this led him to the
tentative conclusion that he had seen a previously
unreported phenomenon, probably associated with the aurora.
In an interview with Nature Magazine by telephone from the space
station, Ed commented on his discovery: "It's a good
thing to get this out in the open, so that people who do know more can
start to think about it." Yes, of course it is. It will
probably be several months before Ed will be able to get around to
examining the evidence in detail and discussing it
with aurora specialists, who should really be very interested in
something so novel and unexpected..."<<