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View Full Version : The Chink in their Armour


The Atheist
15th March 2009, 06:33 PM
It seems that China is seen by many as the answer to the world's economic woes.

That theory is being quickly eroded on several fronts, but a major one is the fact that the Chinese stock market is being propped up by the government while the real share price - as reflected in Hong Kong prices - is trading at a 40-50% discount to mainland prices. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDtidHGVUJpg&refer=home)

The inevitable downturn in China's market cannot be far away, an event which will wipe out trillions of yuan from the portfolios of those who are hoped to save the world.

Even China's pockets are not bottomless, and their concern at the high USD is already evident, where their trade surpluses are quietly vanishing at an interest rate of 0.25%.

Looks to me as though the answer might be a little more prosaic than China saving everyone's bacon.

Puppycow
16th March 2009, 01:34 AM
A 'Chink' in their Armour, eh? :rolleyes:

I wasn't aware that the same shares would cost different amounts on different stock exchanges.

Couldn't a trader just buy the shares at the cheap exchange and sell them at the expensive exchange to make an easy profit?
(I'm sure that this isn't allowed, but I don't know much about China's financial system. If I invest in a China fund, which shares am I buying?)

ETA: Here's why traders can't do that:
Restrictions on foreign and local investment that prevent arbitrage with H shares helped make mainland equities more expensive.
Too bad.

fuelair
16th March 2009, 06:03 AM
A 'Chink' in their Armour, eh? :rolleyes:

I wasn't aware that the same shares would cost different amounts on different stock exchanges.

Couldn't a trader just buy the shares at the cheap exchange and sell them at the expensive exchange to make an easy profit?
(I'm sure that this isn't allowed, but I don't know much about China's financial system. If I invest in a China fund, which shares am I buying?)

ETA: Here's why traders can't do that:

Too bad.Agreed - I have loved the idea of arbitrage since I first heard of it long ago (Economics, 10th Grade, Jack Cass {I do not make this up].