Season of birth affects Optimism

[pervert]

http://www.chinesefivearts.blogspot.com/

see here. It seems the book "astrology in year zero" by the debunkers, contains a part on the effect of season on our optimism levels

[Ashles]

And do you have an opinion on this?

[pervert]

And do you have an opinion on this?

Born in the winter- everyone complains about my dark moods
;)and you??

[paximperium]

Ahhhh..data dredging, you can make up any answer if you dredge up enough data.

[pervert]

Ahhhh..data dredging, you can make up any answer if you dredge up enough data.


how come?

[paximperium]

how come?
Huge data sets have variations. These variations are normal. You approach a study of large data sets by having a working hypothesis...say winter births lead to more engineers. You then look at the statistic to determine if this is true. If not, you restart again. If true, you look to see if it significant or due to random chance.

The problem with the astrological studies is that they dredge the data with working no hypothesis or so vague hypothesis(one month in a year produces more engineers) that any data variation looks like a hit.

So they look at a huge numbers and see a small blip in engineers in people born in the sign Taurus. At this point, they can claim that Taurus births lead to engineers. Is it a real correlation or was it just a chance variation?

So what you have is basically a regression fallacy and a post hoc rationalization fallacy.

[Crowlogic]

Spring in my case. Dark moods? They don't come any darker then mine.

[paximperium]

A little thing about the OP. This could very well be true but for the wrong reason.
I like Wiseman but he overreaches a lot in his claims.

Birth during different seasons could affect "optimism" or even personality due to specific hormonal changes during those time periods while in vivo or even during the growing phase of the child. It is entirely possible but I can't make a conclusion on this as of yet.

[pervert]

Huge data sets have variations. These variations are normal. You approach a study of large data sets by having a working hypothesis...say winter births lead to more engineers. You then look at the statistic to determine if this is true. If not, you restart again. If true, you look to see if it significant or due to random chance.

The problem with the astrological studies is that they dredge the data with working no hypothesis or so vague hypothesis(one month in a year produces more engineers) that any data variation looks like a hit.

So they look at a huge numbers and see a small blip in engineers in people born in the sign Taurus. At this point, they can claim that Taurus births lead to engineers. Is it a real correlation or was it just a chance variation?

So what you have is basically a regression fallacy and a post hoc rationalization fallacy.

But it was precisely huge data(meta analysis) that debunked astrology. Smaller data normally brings better results

[shadron]

Between the "length of fingers points to financial success" and the astro-psychoanalysis of Gacy as Killer Clown, I sort of lost interest in the OP.

[paximperium]

But it was precisely huge data(meta analysis) that debunked astrology. Smaller data normally brings better results
That's not the issue. A pile of data, if studied inappropriately can give the wrong answer. It was larger studies that showed astrology to be bunk but it was also badly done large studies that claimed that astrology worked(I believe a car accident study is one example). I'm very dubious of database studies with vague hypotheses.

Don't get me started on meta-analyses.

[pervert]

A little thing about the OP. This could very well be true but for the wrong reason.
I like Wiseman but he overreaches a lot in his claims.

Birth during different seasons could affect "optimism" or even personality due to specific hormonal changes during those time periods while in vivo or even during the growing phase of the child. It is entirely possible but I can't make a conclusion on this as of yet.

Surely, im not claiming its due to astrology.
It was found a long time ago that people born in the winter are more prone to mental diseases than others

[cj.23]

Wiseman is it? I think it very likely that birth season has a major effect on the development of a child in a non-industrial sociaety - I mention something similar to this in my "Defence of Astrology", which I posted on my blog again this week by coincidence - http://jerome23.wordpress.com/2009/03/12/in-defence-of-astrology-some-common-sense-on-a-touchy-subject/ might amuse. :) I am making a rational defence of astrology here...

cj x

[Skeptic Ginger]

It helps to actually track down what a blogger is summarizing rather than just taking their word for it they know what they are talking about.

From the OP ink: Sunday, February 15, 2009; Pogo The Clown (http://www.chinesefivearts.blogspot.com/)The following is an extract from an interesting book titled “Quirkology” by Mr Richard Wiseman. It is about a research done on astrology...
...The work of Hans Eysenck, Geoffrey Dean, and others show that heavenly predictions often fall far short of the mark.”The blogger goes on to describe an experiment, easy to do and repeated by many, that showed astrologers' predictions have no predictive value.


The blogger then goes on to comment,But another experiment mentioned in later part of the book did show some link with people's behaviour and the time they were born. Apparently, people who deem themselves lucky are generally more optimistic and more able to notice opportunities that come their way, compared to those who considers themselves to be the unlucky bunch. So what is the factor that make the former group more optimistic and more able to notice opportunities? The answer is most of them are born in the warmer months of each year. The later group are normally born in the cold wintry months of the year.

The implication is even though test after test of astrologers' predictions show them to be bunk, because there may be some relationship between seasons and certain human characteristics, astrology is valid. Note the bull here. It ain't planets and it has nothing to do with the predictions of astrologers but somehow this blogger still manages to plant that memory which will return to woo believers later: a pseudo-subliminal suggestion there is something to astrology.


The following blog entry by the same author commits the same non sequitur.
Finger length may predict financial success -
Could there be some truth to the study of Palmistry?No, not based on this evidence. Palms, meet fingers. Fingers meet palms. Guess what? They are not the same!

But there's more to this logic-fail the blog author makes. The relationship of ring finger and index finger length and other human characteristics has been established with supporting evidence. Hormone exposure in utero is hypothesized to affect the finger length and the associated behavior.

Where is the research that shows palm readers make any successful predictions from their acts?


You, Jerome (cj.23), seem to have fallen for this misdirection.



If you are interested in supporting astrology with evidence, (good luck, but it is never a waste of time to investigate these things for oneself), then I suggest going to the source, not to the blogs-eye-view.

Some of us here know Richard Wiseman or at least are familiar with his work. It was easy to find this survey Richard did looking at birth seasons and traits.

Born lucky? The relationship between feeling lucky and month of birth Jayanti Chotai a,*, Richard Wiseman (http://www.richardwiseman.com/resources/Born_lucky_PAID_2005.pdf)Abstract
Research suggests that season of birth is associated with several psychiatric and neurological disorders, and also with adult monoamine neurotransmitter turnover. Personality traits are modulated in part by neurotransmitters; and population studies show season of birth variations in adult personality traits such as novelty seeking. Also, neurotransmitters are involved in suicidal behavior; and studies have found season of birth associations with suicide methods. The present general population survey was conducted via the Internet, and involved 29,584 self-selected participants (51.6% women) from 67 countries. For those born in the UK (75.6%), we investigated the relationship between season of birth, the participant's belief in being a lucky person, and personality attributes related to this belief. In both genders and in all age groups, birth during the summer half-year was associated with significantly higher belief in being lucky, as compared to birth during the winter half-year, with a maximum around birth in May and a minimum around birth in November. Women scored significantly higher on listening to intuition and employing techniques to improve intuition, in perseverence, believing in positive long-term outcomes, and chatting to strangers. Men scored significantly higher on feeling lucky, not worrying or dwelling on failures, and expecting good things in life.
2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Note, the sample was "self selected". That means this is an interesting preliminary study. But it is absolutely inconclusive unless further research done on a random sample population rather than a self selected sample confirms the results.


Likewise you might want to track down the following original work by Geoffrey Dean. This is a summary from Wiseman's book quoted in another blog:
“Time Twins”: Their stars are the same (http://sserenity.wordpress.com/2008/07/05/astrology-for-me-its-debunked/) If the stars at a person’s birth do truly influence his or her life, then people born under the same stars should lead very parallel existences. Geoffrey Dean examined a database of 2,000 people followed through their lifetimes. The database included personality tests and intelligence tests. Geoffrey Dean found no more similarity between “Time Twins” than between people who were separated by days. “Geoffrey has carried out many tests like this and the results have one thing in common- none support the claims of astrology. As a result, he sometimes describes himself as ‘the most hated person in astrology’.” (19)

[Gr8wight]

Born in the winter- everyone complains about my dark moods
;)and you??

Born in winter. Everyone marvels at my eternal optimism.

Go figure.

[cj.23]

You, Jerome (cj.23), seem to have fallen for this misdirection.

Not really. I don't think there is a causal relationship between the position of the sun moon and stars and the traits (well yes the sun, through the seasons, hence crops and nutrition, but not directly). I point out however that at a certain level the claims of astrologers are partially true - and that we can see why they would be so. I also point out directly why if there is a correlation between star sign and personality we should not be in the least surprised!



If you are interested in supporting astrology with evidence, (good luck, but it is never a waste of time to investigate these things for oneself), then I suggest going to the source, not to the blogs-eye-view.

The only astrological claim I find interesting is the Mars Effect, and mainly then because of the disastrous role it played in the early break up of CSICOP and Truzzi and other leaving. Repeatedly mathematical attempts to explain it have occurred, with varying degrees of credibility. I'd like to see more research, but I am dubious. :)



Some of us here know Richard Wiseman or at least are familiar with his work. It was easy to find this survey Richard did looking at birth seasons and traits.

Yeah I know Richard. UK parapsychology is a small scene. Not seen him for a few years though. He taught me some magic tricks. I'll see him at the Science of Ghosts thing I guess :)

However the reasons i give that we should expect these things are rational, not empirical. If I have time i'll run some experiments in the winter, but tied up with work at mo...

cj x

[Skeptic Ginger]

So which is it then, Jerome, is astrology about birth weather, weather during gestation, or the alignment of the planets? You seem to be changing the round definition of astrology to fit your square peg hole.

[cj.23]

So which is it then, Jerome, is astrology about birth weather, weather during gestation, or the alignment of the planets? You seem to be changing the round definition of astrology to fit your square peg hole.


No, I'm saying that astrology is incorrect, but that seasons logically would indeed have an effect on people in a pre-industrial society - and if you doubt date of birth can be significant, compare and contrast a baby boomers experience (many children same age) with a modern teen, and someone whose birthday is near Christmas with anyone else!

[Professor Yaffle]

Theres a fairly well established relationship between season of birth and schizophrenia - possibly related to influenza or vitamin D during pregnancy.

[pervert]

Theres a fairly well established relationship between season of birth and schizophrenia - possibly related to influenza or vitamin D during pregnancy.

Yes. Macrobiotic woos claim it is due to the mother eating more Yin foods(fruits,veg) in the summer period than proteins

[godless dave]

I was born in early June in the Northern Hemisphere and I'm pessimistic as all hell.

[paximperium]

I was born in early June in the Northern Hemisphere and I'm pessimistic as all hell.
That's because your sign was naturally in the Southern Hemisphere.

[Miss_Kitt]

godless dave hinted at the issue I immediately wanted to know: Where were you born, and did you grow up? and where do you live now? Because November is getting into winter in North America, but it's fun the sun season in Australia!

I'm inherently suspicious of anything that is "self-selected" for its participants; and more so for self-reported data on personality.

I don't know the current status of the Mars Effect, et al. studies, but there may well be something akin to the Canadian hockey birth month effect: The best junior hockey players have birthdays early in the year. (This was discussed in the book "Outliers".) This likely reflects that the junior leagues with an age cut-off of "age at Dec 31" tend to favor the larger, more mature kids who are older than their teammates.
However, the ensuing firestorm of discussion (tell Canadians they're neglecting potentially great hockey players, and some serious number crunching will ensue) it emerged that the further up the ladder of hockey success you go, the less it matters. Once you are looking at NHL players, it is much less prevalent than at lower levels; and when you get to NHL point leaders, minutes-played leaders, and goalies with good averages, the effect is minimal.

I would also wonder about the impact on this "birth month" issue on climate where born and raised. That is, is hours of sunlight / vitamin D levels in the mother a factor? As (IIRC) Prof Yaffle pointed out, there are known correlations between birth month and risk of mental illness, and a link to maternal illness is being investigated.

Just a pile of thoughts triggered by the thread, MK

PS Pax -- love the new avatar.

[pervert]

I was born in early June in the Northern Hemisphere and I'm pessimistic as all hell.


You have to "BELIEVE"..:D

[pervert]

godless dave hinted at the issue I immediately wanted to know: Where were you born, and did you grow up? and where do you live now? Because November is getting into winter in North America, but it's fun the sun season in Australia!

I'm inherently suspicious of anything that is "self-selected" for its participants; and more so for self-reported data on personality.

I don't know the current status of the Mars Effect, et al. studies, but there may well be something akin to the Canadian hockey birth month effect: The best junior hockey players have birthdays early in the year. (This was discussed in the book "Outliers".) This likely reflects that the junior leagues with an age cut-off of "age at Dec 31" tend to favor the larger, more mature kids who are older than their teammates.
However, the ensuing firestorm of discussion (tell Canadians they're neglecting potentially great hockey players, and some serious number crunching will ensue) it emerged that the further up the ladder of hockey success you go, the less it matters. Once you are looking at NHL players, it is much less prevalent than at lower levels; and when you get to NHL point leaders, minutes-played leaders, and goalies with good averages, the effect is minimal.

I would also wonder about the impact on this "birth month" issue on climate where born and raised. That is, is hours of sunlight / vitamin D levels in the mother a factor? As (IIRC) Prof Yaffle pointed out, there are known correlations between birth month and risk of mental illness, and a link to maternal illness is being investigated.

Just a pile of thoughts triggered by the thread, MK

PS Pax -- love the new avatar.

Early in the year? Right.. here I go Canada!!

if its vitamin D then afro-yanks are probably as prone to mental diseases as whites born in winter

[King of the Americas]

Environment determines person(ality)...?

Would all or most babies that wre constantly bundled up and exposed to cold air, result in adults with a certain behavior or tendency, when compared to another group of babies that were constantly stripped down and bathed in the warm sun and spring breezes?

I think to some degree that is what all those "ologies" attempt to do- find some common thread in which to link us all together...and then try to determine potential outcomes.

Then again, one could argue that the Placebo effect brings half of any experiment to fruition, if only everyone believes it will.

Mere sugar pills cure half of most patients, when told it is the remedy to what ails them.

I am a Scorpio, and many of my triats ARE that of a Scorpio's...maybe that is because of the stars I was born under or my mild facination with the subject, or because I was born on the cusp and thought it would be cooler to be a "Scorpio", than a "Libra". There are things about me that AREN'T Scorpio and things that Scorpios are that I am not.

In the end you can't change anyone's mind, we all just die with our own stupid ideas...

[pervert]

:boggled:Spring in my case. Dark moods? They don't come any darker then mine.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLOxdAPm8ac&feature=related

then i suggest some devious sex:eye-poppi