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Jimbo68
18th March 2009, 07:54 PM
Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)

The theory put forth in this thread is partly inspired by Fermi's Paradox, partly by my own weird experiences. But is it possible that some advanced alien race (or beings from earth's future) HAS had some contact of sorts with us, but instead of making their presence known directly, they are manipulating things on earth covertly. Because frankly I think some signs of this might already be around us. And believe me, all you have to do is look around you, LITERALLY.

Just look to supposed "random" things around us and in our collective human history to see if you can find deviations from the statistical norm. For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.) Plus look to seemingly "UNEXPLAINED" phenomenon. For example, in 1917, the "Blessed Virgin Mary" is said to have appeared to 3 peasant children in Fatima, Portugal. Finally a miracle is said to have appeared there, witnessed by thousands of people, where the sun seemed to spin in the sky and plommet to earth. Indeed many photographs of the event still exist. And BTW I also believe things like ghost phenomenon is caused by them.

But don't just look to extraordinary examples like the ones above, look to the more mundane things too. What numbers come up more frequently when dealing with supposedly random events? And what letters? It sounds strange, but may yield some interesting results.

Now, I want to make a couple of other things clear here too. I do not believe in UFO's or aliens visiting earth. Sorry. But this leaves me with one question: Is there anyone anywhere else who shares my beliefs?

And it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I want to make another point clear here too. I believe this advanced alien (or time traveler) is using their fantastically advanced technology to do this. It is not by spirits or magic or something like that. And as I've said, I don't think they have necessarily visited us. Their amazing technology is somehow doing this all from a distance! Astounding, no?

I have been sharing this story in various ways for a couple of years now. But it is not clear to me how well people are responding to my theory. As I've said, I have had some even weirder experiences of my own. But I choose to just offer you this theory for now--thank you for understanding that:). I do feel confidant other people can see what I am talking about, though, and that there is at least a working hypothesis to be made here. Thank you all for your time:).

Jimbo~

RoboTimbo
18th March 2009, 07:58 PM
Sorry, the OP mentioned "proof"?

Jimbo68
18th March 2009, 08:02 PM
Sorry, the OP mentioned "proof"?
Well, okay, maybe I offer a LITTLE less than absolute proof. But you have to admit I do offer an interesting HYPOTHESIS. I mean, what could explain the amazing coincidences and supposed "paranormal" things I have mentioned? I assume most of the people on these boards are consummate skeptics like me. So they DON'T believe in "supernatural" explanations for the things I have offered as examples:).

RoboTimbo
18th March 2009, 08:04 PM
Well, okay, maybe I offer a LITTLE less than absolute proof. But you have to admit I do offer an interesting HYPOTHESIS. I mean, what could explain the amazing coincidences and supposed "paranormal" things I have mentioned? I assume most of the people on these boards are consummate skeptics like me. So they DON'T believe in "supernatural" explanations for the things I have offered as examples:).

You would assume incorrectly, but you will find a few skeptics like yourself.

Grimes
18th March 2009, 08:11 PM
Indeed many photographs of the event still exist.


Do you have a link to these photographs?

wollery
18th March 2009, 08:13 PM
Check out this page about American Presidents dying in office (http://www.nicholaswhyte.info/curse.htm).

Random events will usually throw up sequences, or produce an excess of one or two events, that's the nature of randomness. If a supposedly random sequence doesn't do either of the above then it probably isn't actually random. (I suggest a course in statistics and probability to fully understand why this is the case).

Ashles
18th March 2009, 08:18 PM
Hmmm...

Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)
Every unique theory we tend to see here has about a hundred analogous sites elsewhere.
The imagination of believers in the paranormal is a lot more limited than you might expect.

The theory put forth in this thread is partly inspired by Fermi's Paradox, partly by my own weird experiences.
Part thought experiment, part anecdote?

But is it possible that some advanced alien race (or beings from earth's future) HAS had some contact of sorts with us, but instead of making their presence known directly, they are manipulating things on earth covertly.
Possible. Unlikely to a vanishing level.

Because frankly I think some signs of this might already be around us. And believe me, all you have to do is look around you, LITERALLY.
I just 'literally' looked around myself. I saw no obvious alien interference.
Are you sure you meant 'literally'?

Just look to supposed "random" things around us and in our collective human history to see if you can find deviations from the statistical norm.
As any statistical model would predict. :confused:

For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE!
Oh Jesus Christ... this is the best you can come up with? Aliens are interacting with us by affecting assasination frequencies? Why?

[qute](That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.) [/quote]
No, entirely within mere chance.
And I'm not even bothering to check if your claimed facts are correct because this is so stupid.

Plus look to seemingly "UNEXPLAINED" phenomenon. For example, in 1917, the "Blessed Virgin Mary" is said to have appeared to 3 peasant children in Fatima, Portugal. Finally a miracle is said to have appeared there, witnessed by thousands of people, where the sun seemed to spin in the sky and plommet to earth. Indeed many photographs of the event still exist. And BTW I also believe things like ghost phenomenon is caused by them.
That's certainly a comprehensive paranormal portfolio - the Virgin Mary and the sun and weird photos and ghosts and stuff.
You make a strong case. And your clear and unequivocal linking to the existing photos only makes your case stronger.
Oh wait...

But don't just look to extraordinary examples like the ones above, look to the more mundane things too. What numbers come up more frequently when dealing with supposedly random events? And what letters? It sounds strange, but may yield some interesting results.
That's right. Those unspecified numbers! You see them all the time.

Now, I want to make a couple of other things clear here too. I do not believe in UFO's or aliens visiting earth. Sorry.[quote]
That's okay. It's good that you distinguish yourself from silly people or trolls.

[quote]But this leaves me with one question: Is there anyone anywhere else who shares my beliefs?
Unfortunately not. I have not heard of anywhere else on the internet tha tolerates idiotic, unscientific and pointless beliefs.

And it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I want to make another point clear here too. I believe this advanced alien (or time traveler) is using their fantastically advanced technology to do this. It is not by spirits or magic or something like that.
Except when it's ghosts.

And as I've said, I don't think they have necessarily visited us. Their amazing technology is somehow doing this all from a distance! Astounding, no?
Yes. It is an amazing assumption.

I have been sharing this story in various ways for a couple of years now. But it is not clear to me how well people are responding to my theory.
I know, its hard to fully judge how people respond to a theory when they always seem to simply slowly back away keeping eye contact.

As I've said, I have had some even weirder experiences of my own. But I choose to just offer you this theory for now--thank you for understanding that:). I do feel confidant other people can see what I am talking about, though, and that there is at least a working hypothesis to be made here. Thank you all for your time:).

Jimbo~
Okay you're having a nice joke and it's funny (or would be if we hadn't seen similar so many times) but you do know sometimes people read crap like that and believe it?

wollery
18th March 2009, 08:22 PM
Oh, just a minor question.

What does any of the OP have to do with Fermi's paradox?

Jimbo68
18th March 2009, 08:25 PM
Oh, just a minor question.

What does any of the OP have to do with Fermi's paradox?
I assume I have chosen the right "paradox". Fermi's Paradox is the one that explains why we haven't been visited by advanced aliens yet, right? I honestly don't know why they haven't revealed themselves more directly to us. I don't have that information. But clearly, it seems to me at least, they have shown themselves indirectly. Maybe they are time travelers and they are trying to avoid a temporal paradox. Je ne sais pas. FWIW, I was about to offer a link to a picture to Fatima, but apparently I have to make 15 posts to be able to offer a link. Anyways, if you want to try to find the same picture, just do as I did. Do a google image search on "Fatima Blessed Virgin Mary Miracle", and you will find the allegedly authentic picture about three pages in.

wollery
18th March 2009, 08:37 PM
I assume I have chosen the right "paradox". Fermi's Paradox is the one that explains why we haven't been visited by advanced aliens yet, right?No, it just asks why we haven't been visited if there are loads of advanced alien civilizations out there.

It's actually not a paradox at all.

I honestly don't know why they haven't revealed themselves more directly to us. I don't have that information. But clearly, it seems to me at least, they have shown themselves indirectly. Maybe they are time travelers and they are trying to avoid a temporal paradox. Je ne sais pas.Would you care to discuss any of your other evidence?

FWIW, I was about to offer a link to a picture to Fatima, but apparently I have to make 15 posts to be able to offer a link. Anyways, if you want to try to find the same picture, just do as I did. Do a google image search on "Fatima Blessed Virgin Mary Miracle", and you will find the allegedly authentic picture about three pages in.Did that, all I could find were photographs of the crowd, and one very grainy photograph of the sky that didn't show anything.

fromdownunder
18th March 2009, 08:41 PM
I think we can add Bernadette, and Lourdes to the list of alien intervention. Don't forgert that millions of people go to Lourdes each year to be cured by the holy waters.

And the cure rate is remarkable - not all that much lower than cures that naturally occur through spontaneouos remission (although regeneration of limbs from Lourdes water has a pretty low positive rate)

So Jimbo, another event to support your theory. You might also want to check out Eric Von Daniken in the science section of your local library.

Norm.

JohnG
18th March 2009, 08:52 PM
Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)


I know a lot of what you mentioned can seem pretty incredible at first blush, some of those same things weirded me out back in the day, too. The fact that neither of us can/could explain them doesn't necessarily mean they are inexplicable, though.

When I was a kid I was given a magic kit and started to learn all the standard stuff; card tricks, disappearing coins, etc. After a time my ignorant/arrogant younger self thought I must now know everything there is to know on the subject. Therefore, when a professional Magician such as Doug Henning, David Copperfield or James Randi performed an illusion that I couldn't explain, I'd say "Aha! They are actually doing something paranormal otherwise I'd know how they're doing it". Later I found out how some of those so called "paranormal" feats were accomplished (or at least the broad strokes). You'd think I'd learn my lesson and not continue to jump to the erroneous conclusion that any magic trick I couldn't immediately explain must be supernatural, wouldn't you? Unfortunately, I've always been a slow learner and I had to relearn the lesson over and over again over the course of many years.

Now when I see a magic trick (or anything else) I can't explain, my default position isn't to assume it is inexplicable. I take a breath and ask myself (and others) if there is a reasonable explanation for the phenomenon in question.

Am I being close minded or just skeptical? What's the difference between the following statements?

There is no life on other planets

There is no evidence for life on other planets

If those two statements sound more or less identical to you, then you've come to the right place, because there are people here far wiser and more knowledgeable than I who can explain the very important distinction.

Vortigern99
18th March 2009, 09:06 PM
Is the thread title asking a question? If so, the answer is: "No, there isn't."

MG1962
18th March 2009, 09:52 PM
Do you have a link to these photographs?

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Newspaper_fatima.jpg

The top photo was reported by the journalist covering the event to have been taken as the phenomena is actually happening

http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=Miracle+of+the+Sun&btnG=Search+Images&gbv=2

Searching in Google, under miracle of the sun will produce far more photos. The event was pretty big news and a few major Spanish and Portugese papers sent reporters to cover whatever was to unfold that day

wollery
18th March 2009, 10:24 PM
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/56/Newspaper_fatima.jpg

The top photo was reported by the journalist covering the event to have been taken as the phenomena is actually happening

http://images.google.com/images?hl=en&q=Miracle+of+the+Sun&btnG=Search+Images&gbv=2

Searching in Google, under miracle of the sun will produce far more photos. The event was pretty big news and a few major Spanish and Portugese papers sent reporters to cover whatever was to unfold that dayWhat are these photos supposed to show?

Jimbo68
18th March 2009, 10:32 PM
(I don't know if this is the right time in the discussion to point this out, but there is another thing I find rather odd. This advanced alien entity is trying to make us all believe in the "Blessed Virgin Mary" and apparently, as I have already pointed out, ghosts too. Hmmm... What kind of strange conspiracy is this all then? Hmmm...)

MG1962
18th March 2009, 10:34 PM
What are these photos supposed to show?

Most of them are simply the crowds reaction to events. There supposed to be a couple proporting to show whatever solar phenomena was occuring, however given how photos had to be taken back then I would not attest to them being real or not

Ron_Tomkins
18th March 2009, 10:43 PM
Just look to supposed "random" things around us and in our collective human history to see if you can find deviations from the statistical norm. For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.) Plus look to seemingly "UNEXPLAINED" phenomenon. For example, in 1917, the "Blessed Virgin Mary" is said to have appeared to 3 peasant children in Fatima, Portugal. Finally a miracle is said to have appeared there, witnessed by thousands of people, where the sun seemed to spin in the sky and plommet to earth. Indeed many photographs of the event still exist.

You know what?..... You're right! All those Presidents dying in Office... I mean, if that's not a sign that aliens visited earth then I don't know what the hell that is! Makes perfect sense. What else could have possibly caused this?


And BTW I also believe things like ghost phenomenon is caused by them.

Now you're just deliberately putting your neck out in the air for grabs
Sorry. This is pure amateur trolling

In other words: "I believe aliens visited the earth... oh and by the way, I believe in homeopathy and boy oh boy, is that book The Secret a piece of work!............ Please, won't somebody bite my bait and attack me??... pleeeaaase?"

Now, I want to make a couple of other things clear here too. I do not believe in UFO's or aliens visiting earth. Sorry. But this leaves me with one question: Is there anyone anywhere else who shares my beliefs?

Sure, Jimmy. I share all your beliefs. I'm with ya, fella. We're all with you on this, brother. You can feel part of the gang.

And it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I want to make another point clear here too. I believe this advanced alien (or time traveler) is using their fantastically advanced technology to do this. It is not by spirits or magic or something like that. And as I've said, I don't think they have necessarily visited us. Their amazing technology is somehow doing this all from a distance! Astounding, no?

Yes! Oh yes!!!! I can barely hold my breath at these recent discoveries! The BBC is going to be fascinated about this!!! :rolleyes:

Jimbo68
18th March 2009, 11:19 PM
This is pure amateur trolling
I love it when people argue against my points. It keeps the discussion going:).
Anyways, I don't know how serious you were when you made this point. But in my argument, I was never trolling. At least that was never my intention if it came out that way. But as I've said, thank you for your points in any event:).

Monza
18th March 2009, 11:20 PM
W...I mean, what could explain the amazing coincidences and supposed "paranormal" things I have mentioned?...

"A woman touches a hot stove and burns her hand. A thousand miles away, at that exact same moment, the woman's mother experiences a pain in her hand. Coincidence?"

YES!! That's what a coincidence is.

learner
19th March 2009, 12:00 AM
Any pics showing nothing untoward happening to the sun all over the world outside of that small area in Fatima?
Il go with those for reality thanks. :rolleyes:

Tumblehome
19th March 2009, 12:25 AM
Just to pick out one point from your OP...

Just look to supposed "random" things around us and in our collective human history to see if you can find deviations from the statistical norm. For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.)


Sorry, but that's not far beyond mere chance. Mere chance includes that possibility, just as it includes the possibility that at odds of 13 million-to-one, my lottery numbers will get picked.

The Atheist
19th March 2009, 01:46 AM
Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique.

Nope. The only way it's close to unique is tying together those particular events, but someone else - and mostly, lots of someone elses - have noticed those strange anomalies.

The theory put forth in this thread is partly inspired by Fermi's Paradox, partly by my own weird experiences.

You should do a quick thread search for Fermi - his mistake has been well aired here previously.

For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.)

As noted, not so far beyond chance that it's world-shattering.

Plus look to seemingly "UNEXPLAINED" phenomenon. For example, in 1917, the "Blessed Virgin Mary" is said to have appeared to 3 peasant children in Fatima, Portugal.

Yeah! And look how the predictions turned out....

Uh, they didn't.

As to the "miracle of the sun", you know, it's bloody strange, but all those thousands of people, some of whom had moving picture cameras, many more of whom had still cameras, and there's not one photograph of anything even remotely interesting.

And of all the thousands of reports of the sun that day, hardly two accounts are the same - which is no major surprise since your eyes will assuredly play tricks if you spend too long looking at the sun.

Did WWI end as a reuslt? No.

Was a single life saved by the miracle and the consequent predictions?

Nope.

Pretty average miracle.

You do know that same miracle often appears at Medjugorje (http://www.gospa.com/pages/personal.htm)quite frequently?

The standard for miracles is so low these days...

And BTW I also believe things like ghost phenomenon is caused by them.

Horribly boring aliens if the best they can do is throw around a few old books and make really bad photos.

What numbers come up more frequently when dealing with supposedly random events? And what letters? It sounds strange, but may yield some interesting results.

Gosh, I don't know; why don't you enlighten us on what those special numbers are?

Uri Geller's pretty keen on 11 and the time of 11:11. Is that one of them?

A good look at lottery results confirms the random nature of results with no sign of bias at all, according to results I see published.

Now, I want to make a couple of other things clear here too. I do not believe in UFO's or aliens visiting earth. Sorry. But this leaves me with one question: Is there anyone anywhere else who shares my beliefs?

Yep, I share the same belief that aliens don't visit earth.

Their amazing technology is somehow doing this all from a distance! Astounding, no?

Astounding is right!

No evidence, not even a hypothesis, yet I'm astounded to find that you've decided your weird thoughts are real.

I have been sharing this story in various ways for a couple of years now.

I bet you never get the chance to tell it to the same person twice.

;)

But it is not clear to me how well people are responding to my theory.

Calling it a theory is a bit rich - as I just noted, you have nothing other than copying someone else's premises.

I imagine most people would respond as they have here:

"What is this guy on?"

As I've said, I have had some even weirder experiences of my own. But I choose to just offer you this theory for now--thank you for understanding that:).

C'mon, don't be bashful. People have told us about bigfoot sightings, UFO anal probing, religious miracles, homeopathic cures and Sylvia Browne's predictions - why should you claim immunity from having your claims examined?

I do feel confidant other people can see what I am talking about, though, and that there is at least a working hypothesis to be made here. Thank you all for your time:).

Jimbo~

Nah, a working hypothesis would at least include a proposed mechanism of carrying out the changes by remote control.

You haven't even managed that - it's like a six-year old's attempt to write a Doctor Who episode.

wollery
19th March 2009, 02:14 AM
Uri Geller's pretty keen on 11 and the time of 11:11. Is that one of them?Does he do a Dicky Bird and hop on one leg? :D

Pixel42
19th March 2009, 03:10 AM
Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)
I read it.

I think you need to read this: http://www.skepdic.com/lawofnumbers.html

I do feel confidant other people can see what I am talking about, though, and that there is at least a working hypothesis to be made here.
To qualify as a hypothesis, it needs to make predictions which can be validated. If your hypothesis is correct, what future extraordinary coincidences do you expect to occur? Note coincidences are expected to occur even if your hypothesis is false, so you need to use it to predict specific coincidences.

Octavo
19th March 2009, 03:37 AM
Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)

Obvious troll is obvious.

Akhenaten
19th March 2009, 04:15 AM
In B4 theories about alien pyramid builders.

The Don
19th March 2009, 04:26 AM
Does he do a Dicky Bird and hop on one leg? :D
That would be David Shepherd not Dicky Bird

Seren_
19th March 2009, 05:30 AM
If you flip a coin 100 times, and you only get Heads, it is still random and ordinary, and has as much chance to happen that any other combination.

Human's brain are trained to identify and trying to make sense of unusual patterns. But it does not mean that there is always a higher purpose or reason for something to happen.

Read the article on Pareidolia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareidolia) on Wikipedia and see the different examples and related phenomenons.

MG1962
19th March 2009, 07:46 AM
Any pics showing nothing untoward happening to the sun all over the world outside of that small area in Fatima?
Il go with those for reality thanks. :rolleyes:

Well the phenomena was observed over an area of aproximtely 35 kilometers. The variants in what people saw, and in some instances their remotness from the crowd seems to discount the mass halucination theory.

Along with the journalists, there are reports of a number of scientists being on hand, unfortunately I have never seen any first hand accounts of what they saw, if anything.

The general thinking is that the area was affected by some unusual atmospheric event, exactly what that event was is still a matter of conjecture.

A Catholic priest did put an interesting spin on the day. Claiming that even if it was an atmospheric event, and not some astral manifestation. The fact the event was pedicted three weeks in advance is a miracle within itself

desertyeti
19th March 2009, 08:01 AM
Proof of Alien Intervention on Earth?

No.
Next question.

godless dave
19th March 2009, 08:23 AM
So aliens are intervening in earth history - to make presidents elected in certain years die in certain years? I think these aliens have way too much time on their hands.

desertgal
19th March 2009, 08:51 AM
Any pics showing nothing untoward happening to the sun all over the world outside of that small area in Fatima?
Il go with those for reality thanks. :rolleyes:

For that matter, the larger proportion of the eyewitness accounts of the Miracle of the Sun differ greatly in detail. Some people saw nothing at all, in fact. And there are not "many photographs of the event". There are several photographs of the crowd, but only one picture of the phenomena itself. While there has been no scientific explanation for the event, I would think, given the differing details in the eyewitness accounts, one poor quality, black and white photograph, and a lack of scientific data on the event in keeping with 1917, it would be impossible to establish a scientific explanation. That doesn't mean there isn't one.

Paul
19th March 2009, 09:27 AM
I think these aliens have way too much time on their hands.

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/286949c263afc3b24.png

desertgal
19th March 2009, 09:49 AM
For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.)

No, not "EVERYONE". For one thing, SEVEN United States Presidents have died in office, but only SIX were elected (or re-elected) in years starting with 0 - Zachary Taylor was elected in 1848. For another thing, McKinley and FDR were first elected in 1896 and 1932, respectively. Abraham Lincoln was first elected in 1860, and re-elected in 1864.

Technically, Lincoln and FDR died in office because they were re-elected in years that didn't end with zero. Technically, FDR and McKinley died in office because they were first elected in years that didn't end with zero. Sorry, but with elections and re-elections, the 'alien intervention/years ending with 0' theory is pretty thin. It gets even thinner when you consider Reagan and Bush, Jr. They were elected in 0 years, and they didn't die in office. That lends credence to the others being merely coincidental.

And, of course, in FDR's case, he was also re-elected in 1936 and 1944. Given his health, his age, and the fact that he was elected four times, the chances that one of his re-elections would take place in a year ending with 0 AND that he would die in office would have been fairly higher than average, I think.

(If you are going to put forth this theory, or others, you may want to do your homework a little better.)

NoZed Avenger
19th March 2009, 10:05 AM
Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)

* * *

Just look to supposed "random" things around us and in our collective human history to see if you can find deviations from the statistical norm.

If you don't know who these entities are, when they arrived, or when and how they first started messing with us, how do you ever establish a 'statistical norm' to show deviations from?

Cuddles
19th March 2009, 11:23 AM
Astounding, no?

No.

The Atheist
19th March 2009, 11:31 AM
Does he do a Dicky Bird and hop on one leg? :D

That would be David Shepherd not Dicky Bird

Beat me to it.

Have you ever seen a South African crowd on a Nelson?

They all get up and stand on one leg every bloody ball he faces.

Funnily enough, Uri Geller, being an Israeli and a dork, completely misses Nelson on his deranged burbling about the inportance of elevens.

Maybe that's proof of alien intervention as well.

JimBenArm
19th March 2009, 11:37 AM
The only alien intervention is anal probing. For some reason, aliens have a strange fascination with our rectums, and probe them continuously. Every time you have a stinky fart, it's because you've just been probed. By aliens. It's the lubricant they use that causes the stink. Otherwise, your farts would smell like what you ate. Or roses.
It's true because it's all science-like and stuff!

Ron_Tomkins
19th March 2009, 11:40 AM
I love it when people argue against my points. It keeps the discussion going:).
Anyways, I don't know how serious you were when you made this point. But in my argument, I was never trolling. At least that was never my intention if it came out that way. But as I've said, thank you for your points in any event:).

"I love it when people argue against my points"
Translation:
"I love it when my trolling generates the responses I expected"

You're welcome. That' what we're here for

I love the overly use of smiley faces. Where have I seen that one before?
Oh yeah, that's right

Se also:
Jim Callahan
Tim4848
The Professor
Reason1

Rodibidably
19th March 2009, 12:27 PM
<pointless blather>

For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office.

<more pointless blather>

Now, I want to make a couple of other things clear here too. I do not believe in UFO's or aliens visiting earth.

<even more pointless blather>

And it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I want to make another point clear here too. I believe this advanced alien (or time traveler) is using their fantastically advanced technology to do this.

<yet even more pointless blather>

Ok, let me get this straight... So you don't believe aliens are visiting us, but you do believe that aliens (or time travelers) are killing American Presidents from a distance?

Please, check out the following link for your own good: Mental Health - Organizations by State (http://www.cdc.gov/mentalhealth/state_orgs.htm)
I am not trying to be dismissive or insulting (or whatever) of you. I truly believe that if you're being honest in your post, that you are in serious need of psychiatric help.

Cainkane1
19th March 2009, 12:50 PM
Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)

The theory put forth in this thread is partly inspired by Fermi's Paradox, partly by my own weird experiences. But is it possible that some advanced alien race (or beings from earth's future) HAS had some contact of sorts with us, but instead of making their presence known directly, they are manipulating things on earth covertly. Because frankly I think some signs of this might already be around us. And believe me, all you have to do is look around you, LITERALLY.

Just look to supposed "random" things around us and in our collective human history to see if you can find deviations from the statistical norm. For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.) Plus look to seemingly "UNEXPLAINED" phenomenon. For example, in 1917, the "Blessed Virgin Mary" is said to have appeared to 3 peasant children in Fatima, Portugal. Finally a miracle is said to have appeared there, witnessed by thousands of people, where the sun seemed to spin in the sky and plommet to earth. Indeed many photographs of the event still exist. And BTW I also believe things like ghost phenomenon is caused by them.

But don't just look to extraordinary examples like the ones above, look to the more mundane things too. What numbers come up more frequently when dealing with supposedly random events? And what letters? It sounds strange, but may yield some interesting results.

Now, I want to make a couple of other things clear here too. I do not believe in UFO's or aliens visiting earth. Sorry. But this leaves me with one question: Is there anyone anywhere else who shares my beliefs?

And it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I want to make another point clear here too. I believe this advanced alien (or time traveler) is using their fantastically advanced technology to do this. It is not by spirits or magic or something like that. And as I've said, I don't think they have necessarily visited us. Their amazing technology is somehow doing this all from a distance! Astounding, no?

I have been sharing this story in various ways for a couple of years now. But it is not clear to me how well people are responding to my theory. As I've said, I have had some even weirder experiences of my own. But I choose to just offer you this theory for now--thank you for understanding that:). I do feel confidant other people can see what I am talking about, though, and that there is at least a working hypothesis to be made here. Thank you all for your time:).

Jimbo~
This is nothing more than coincidence. The sun doing the woo woo thing would have been seen by non believers also. What photographs show the sun did what you say it did? Your theory is so far fetched I can't understand why we grace it with a response. Yes I'm guilty. I responded.

Lanzy
19th March 2009, 12:56 PM
Trolling, trolling, trolling, troll on!

JohnG
19th March 2009, 01:00 PM
Please, check out the following link for your own good: Mental Health - Organizations by State (http://www.cdc.gov/mentalhealth/state_orgs.htm)
I am not trying to be dismissive or insulting (or whatever) of you. I truly believe that if you're being honest in your post, that you are in serious need of psychiatric help.


I think people sometimes brand others as "Trolls" or in this case mentally ill a little too often, here. As a child/young man I used to believe in just about every paranormal/woo thing you can name. I no longer do, but I don't think it's because I somehow went from being mentally ill to mentally sound. It's more to do with the simple act of growing up and reading everything you can lay your hands on, including (and especially) books/articles that cause you to question your beliefs, rather than reinforce them.

I don't doubt that actual mentally ill (delusional) people visit and participate in this forum (in fact there's at least a couple here I'm sure need help), but I'm not yet convinced that Jimbo68 is one of them. Having said that if I were to find out that the "68" in his user name refers to the year of his birth, I may be willing to revise my opinion.

Rodibidably
19th March 2009, 01:20 PM
I think people sometimes brand others as "Trolls" or in this case mentally ill a little too often, here. As a child/young man I used to believe in just about every paranormal/woo thing you can name. I no longer do, but I don't think it's because I somehow went from being mentally ill to mentally sound. It's more to do with the simple act of growing up and reading everything you can lay your hands on, including (and especially) books/articles that cause you to question your beliefs, rather than reinforce them.

I don't doubt that actual mentally ill (delusional) people visit and participate in this forum (in fact there's at least a couple here I'm sure need help), but I'm not yet convinced that Jimbo68 is one of them. Having said that if I were to find out that the "68" in his user name refers to the year of his birth, I may be willing to revise my opinion.
If he just thinks that it is odd that certain presidents die, and it's a statistical fluke, then I fail to see the link with the alien ideas, and I'd guess troll.

BUT, If he TRULY believes that aliens (or time travelers) are murdering American presidents who served during a 0 year (or elected, or whatever his weird criteria is) then I stand by my assessment that he needs to see mental health professionals.

I'll admit, it's possible he just read some woo-woo book or website, or saw some jackass on TV spouting this crap, and he's not informed enough to dismiss the nonsense as it deserves to be. But the fact that he then takes this "information" (and I use that term loosely, since I'm not sure BS can be described as true information), and comes up with what he claims is his own theory to explain a few random unrelated things strikes me as the sign of a person who "is not all there".

Travis
19th March 2009, 02:36 PM
The Presidential assassination coincidences are actually evidence of a future society time traveling back to screw with us. An alien civilization would have obviously ordered us primitive humans to construct 100km tall statues of them made of pure platinum for no good reason other than they could. Oh and suns spinning round? Definitely the work of Reverse Vampires. That's just how they roll.

Prove me wrong!

JohnG
19th March 2009, 02:52 PM
And they've also been influencing the leaders in Russia for the last 130 years so that they alternate between bald and hairy.

Our alien/futuristic overloads sure do have an odd sense of humor (or priorities).

wollery
19th March 2009, 06:22 PM
That would be David Shepherd not Dicky BirdIndeed, my memory was faulty.

Beat me to it.

Have you ever seen a South African crowd on a Nelson?

They all get up and stand on one leg every bloody ball he faces.Well, that's South Africans for you........ :rolleyes:

Octavo
20th March 2009, 01:37 AM
Indeed, my memory was faulty.

Well, that's South Africans for you........ :rolleyes:


You guys just don't understand. If we *didn't* all do it, aliens would once again imbue the Ozzies with preternatural cricketing skillz. We do it to save humanity the indignity of seeing Oz win ANOTHER CWC.

:SOUTHAFRICA:

Soapy Sam
20th March 2009, 05:14 AM
Jimbo- You will have gathered that absolutely nobody here is at all impressed by the examples you quote. Not only are most posters familiar with the majority of your examples, but they are also familiar with many more.
Collecting Fortean data is fun and may yield interesting data from time to time, but there are no grounds whatever to support an alien interference theory.

Just out of curiosity- having experienced these responses, which largely boil down to "Nothing of interest here", have you altered your view on these matters at all?

paiute
20th March 2009, 05:27 AM
Just look to supposed "random" things around us and in our collective human history to see if you can find deviations from the statistical norm.

I helped someone study for an AP Statistics course, meaning that I had to read the book and learn it after a fashion myself.

I have already forgotten the exact terms, but there is a particular example I remember which goes like this: If you take Einstein's brain, for example, and subject it to twenty tests to try and see if there was some physical explanation for his intellect, there is a 95% (all numbers here are from memory and not warranteed to be accurate) chance you will find that one of the parameters you measure will be some number of standard deviations from the norm. Then the researchers will say: Aha! The man was a genius because he had a big hippocampus, or tiny little pineal or the density of his brain was X, or whatever.

It is a kind of self-deceptive data mining. So if we study all these "random events" in human history, we will of course find a nonrandom pattern eventually. It's not aliens, just AP Stats.

JoeTheJuggler
20th March 2009, 10:26 AM
For example, every United States president starting with Pres. Harrison (and apparently ending with Pres. Reagan and George W Bush) that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.)

Can you show the math?

By the way--how is "every" except for two still "every"?

Jimbo68
20th March 2009, 08:12 PM
Jimbo- You will have gathered that absolutely nobody here is at all impressed by the examples you quote. Not only are most posters familiar with the majority of your examples, but they are also familiar with many more.
Collecting Fortean data is fun and may yield interesting data from time to time, but there are no grounds whatever to support an alien interference theory.

Just out of curiosity- having experienced these responses, which largely boil down to "Nothing of interest here", have you altered your view on these matters at all?
Sorry it took me a while to respond to your posts (I do have a life, of sorts at least, you know:)). Nope! None of you have changed my views on these matters in the least. Sorry:).

Ron_Tomkins
20th March 2009, 08:15 PM
Sorry it took me a while to respond to your posts (I do have a life, of sorts at least, you know:)). Nope! None of you have changed my views on these matters in the least. Sorry:).

Aaaawww damn! Really? We needed really badly to change your mind!!

Damn.... now I won't be able to sleep knowing that you still haven't changed your mind about this

Jimbo68
20th March 2009, 08:18 PM
Can you show the math?

By the way--how is "every" except for two still "every"?
I took various math classes in grade school, high school, etc. So I do know a little about math. But I never was exposed to statistics. So, no, as I understand your question, I cannot "show the math" myself. But I do think the coincidence is still extraordinary. And it isn't 7 "except two". The alleged curse (it is called the "Tecumseh Curse" or the "Curse of Tippecanoe", as I'm sure alot of you already knew) basically stopped after Kennedy. Now, if it stopped at one president then suddenly started up again, then you would have more of a point that it was just random luck. I assume I have made my point clear here. I sometimes talk alot when I am trying to explain something:).

Jimbo68
20th March 2009, 08:24 PM
Sorry Ron Tomkins, I didn't see your post there. I think we posted at the same time.

Travis
21st March 2009, 12:30 AM
Even if we accept that there is something to those Presidents dying how is it linked to aliens? These Presidents weren't felled by mysterious nanobots or a previously unseen virus they died of very real things on Earth. Did the aliens hire Oswald? Did they infect FDR?

Jimbo68
21st March 2009, 01:29 AM
Even if we accept that there is something to those Presidents dying how is it linked to aliens? These Presidents weren't felled by mysterious nanobots or a previously unseen virus they died of very real things on Earth. Did the aliens hire Oswald? Did they infect FDR?
Once again, I don't have all the answers. I just know the alien entity involved is very advanced apparently, so I wouldn't doubt they were capable of anything. BTW, I like the nanobot idea. Maybe it was that too. I don't know.

Travis
21st March 2009, 01:57 AM
Once again, I don't have all the answers. I just know the alien entity involved is very advanced apparently, so I wouldn't doubt they were capable of anything. BTW, I like the nanobot idea. Maybe it was that too. I don't know.

So, essentially, you have as much proof that it was aliens as I have that it was time travelers or Reverse Vampires?

Basically you just think it would be really cool if it were aliens and think that validates that it was. Sorry but I don't think the "awesome" factor has much to do with proving things from a scientific viewpoint. If it did my idea that the Great Red Spot is powered by dragons with laser cannons would be in every text book on Jupiter.

Pixel42
21st March 2009, 02:04 AM
I took various math classes in grade school, high school, etc. So I do know a little about math. But I never was exposed to statistics. So, no, as I understand your question, I cannot "show the math" myself. But I do think the coincidence is still extraordinary.
I have a degree in Maths, and I can tell you with certainty that the coincidence is not extraordinary. It's just one of many coincidences that the maths predict will happen. The maths cannot predict which coincidences will happen but it can and does predict that a large number will, and that if you go looking for coincidences you will certainly find some.

Unless you can use your 'alien intervention' hypothesis to predict future coincidences which then happen as predicted you have no hypothesis and are in fact talking utter drivel. But you are in good company; the human brain is hard-wired to look for patterns and to assign significance to those patterns, to find a signal in the noise, and it is so good at it that it will often think it's found a signal where there is in fact only noise. The vast majority of the superstitious nonsense that people believe is attributable to this tendancy. You are simply providing a very clear example which might actually be useful when helping other people recognise their own superstitious beliefs for what they are: "See, if you insist on ignoring what the psychologists tell us about confirmation bias you too could end up not only believing in astrology/ghosts/psychics [delete as applicable] but also believing that aliens are responsible for presidential assasinations! That's obviously nonsense, isn't it? So maybe you should re-examine your own reasoning process?"

wollery
21st March 2009, 02:42 AM
Okay, Jimbo, quick question.

Which of the following two images was produced by random placement of dots, and which was produced artificially by purposeful placement of dots?

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/95745e2e09777944.jpg

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/95745e2e097a99ca.jpg

Akhenaten
21st March 2009, 02:57 AM
Once again, I don't have all the answers.

The first thing you need to realise is that you never will. Neither will anyone else.


I just know . . .

No you don't. You can learn things by rote, you can figure things out from first principles or you can collect new evidence and actually create knowledge, but you can't "just know" things. If you wish to make your point here, please present at least one of the following:


The body of pre-existing knowledge to which you have referred in formulating your hypothesis


The scientific principles invoked in the formulation of your hypothesis.


The physical and other evidence you have collected in support of your hypothesis.



. . . the alien entity involved is very advanced apparently, so I wouldn't doubt they were capable of anything.

How do you know any of this? How do you intend to demonstrate that you're not just making it up as you go?


BTW, I like the nanobot idea. Maybe it was that too.

Thomas Edison said that genius is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent perspiration. You have ninety-nine percent of the way to go.


I don't know.

No, you don't.

Skwinty
21st March 2009, 03:21 AM
Have you ever seen a South African crowd on a Nelson?

They all get up and stand on one leg every bloody ball he faces.

Ha Ha , have you ever seen a South African crowd on a double nelson.
they levitate for every ball he faces. Now thats alien intervention:D

Jimbo68
21st March 2009, 12:29 PM
Okay, Jimbo, quick question.

Which of the following two images was produced by random placement of dots, and which was produced artificially by purposeful placement of dots?

I know it is obviously a trick question, but I would say the first one is the deliberate placement of dots and the second one is random. (BTW, sorry Skwinty for interrupting what you were saying.)

Hindmost
21st March 2009, 12:53 PM
Aliens--capable of interstellar travel--and this is the best they can do with their intervention...bad aliens.

glenn:(

desertgal
21st March 2009, 02:02 PM
The alleged curse (it is called the "Tecumseh Curse" or the "Curse of Tippecanoe", as I'm sure alot of you already knew) basically stopped after Kennedy.

Perhaps you could offer an explanation as to why it stopped?

If one subscribes to the theory of the Tecumseh Curse/Curse of Tippecanoe, then they also subscribe to the notion that Ronald Reagan 'broke the curse' by surviving the 1981 shooting, and ensuring that no future American presidents elected in 0 years would die in office.

However, if the Tecumseh Curse is not a curse at all, but really alien manipulation, then there was no curse to be broken, so Reagan and Bush, Jr. shouldn't have made it out of the Oval Office alive. Yet, they did. Why? Did the aliens get over their snit and decide murdering American presidents was no longer the 'in' thing to do?

And what about poor old Zachary Taylor? Was he a fluke, or did the aliens miscount the years on their extraterrestrial calendar?

For that matter, exactly what purpose do these manipulations serve? If one looks at the Miracle of the Sun as an alien manipulation, then it can be said that all they accomplished was to get a whole bunch of people in Fatima to come outside and stare into the sky for a period of time. Mildly amusing to the aliens watching, I'm sure, but ultimately pointless. If a president dies in office, his Vice President steps into his place, and the world goes on pretty much as before. Are the aliens attempting to accomplish something specific, or is it just a version of galactic sooper chess?

Skeptic Ginger
21st March 2009, 03:18 PM
.... that was elected in a year ending in zero died in office. EVERYONE! (That's 7 altogether you know--way far beyond mere chance.) ...
Jimbo~No, it isn't "way more than chance". I suggest you look into how one would calculate the odds. And then I suggest you consider other discussions of the phenomena of "being too unlikely to be chance" which discusses the problem.

Why our brains do not intuitively grasp probabilities, Part 1 (http://www.michaelshermer.com/2008/09/folk-numeracy-middle-land/#more-552)Let us define a miracle as an event with million-to-one odds of occurring (intuitively, that seems rare enough to earn the moniker). Let us also assign a number of one bit per second to the data that flow into our senses as we go about our day and assume that we are awake for 12 hours a day. We get 43,200 bits of data a day, or 1.296 million a month. Even assuming that 99.999 percent of these bits are totally meaningless (and so we filter them out or forget them entirely), that still leaves 1.3 “miracles” a month, or 15.5 miracles a year

Thanks to our confirmation bias, in which we look for and find confirmatory evidence for what we already believe and ignore or discount disconfirming evidence, we will remember only those few astonishing coincidences and forget the vast sea of meaningless data.

Jimbo68
21st March 2009, 07:40 PM
Perhaps you could offer an explanation as to why it stopped?

If one subscribes to the theory of the Tecumseh Curse/Curse of Tippecanoe, then they also subscribe to the notion that Ronald Reagan 'broke the curse' by surviving the 1981 shooting, and ensuring that no future American presidents elected in 0 years would die in office.

However, if the Tecumseh Curse is not a curse at all, but really alien manipulation, then there was no curse to be broken, so Reagan and Bush, Jr. shouldn't have made it out of the Oval Office alive. Yet, they did. Why? Did the aliens get over their snit and decide murdering American presidents was no longer the 'in' thing to do?

And what about poor old Zachary Taylor? Was he a fluke, or did the aliens miscount the years on their extraterrestrial calendar?

For that matter, exactly what purpose do these manipulations serve? If one looks at the Miracle of the Sun as an alien manipulation, then it can be said that all they accomplished was to get a whole bunch of people in Fatima to come outside and stare into the sky for a period of time. Mildly amusing to the aliens watching, I'm sure, but ultimately pointless. If a president dies in office, his Vice President steps into his place, and the world goes on pretty much as before. Are the aliens attempting to accomplish something specific, or is it just a version of galactic sooper chess?
Where to begin, where to begin. I don't know exactly why this alien entity stopped the curse at Reagan. At the risk of repeating myself, I don't have all the answers. The same thing for the Fatima example. Actually though, you do kind of elude to something I said before, but that no one replied to. If (yes, I will now use the word "if" for you skeptics), if this is an example of advanced alien manipulation, what indeed are they trying to do? Because some of the things I believe they are doing will have unusual results, sometimes even results that are not entirely good for us. Or sometimes the results are neither good nor bad, as far as I can tell at least. And if they want us to believe in ghosts and the Blessed Virgin Mary, apparently they may poss. be against us advancing too far in some areas, say science. I also wonder if this alien entity didn't seed us all here on earth centuries ago. They apparently gave us an inquisitive nature so we'd become advanced scientifically. So are things like ghosts and Fatima meant to slow us down, just a little bit. Hmmm... But back to your original questions, I honestly don't have all the answers. Just alot of crazy theories;).

RoboTimbo
21st March 2009, 07:53 PM
...If (yes, I will now use the word "if" for you skeptics), if this is an example of advanced alien manipulation, what indeed are they trying to do?...

In post #3, you claimed to be a consummate skeptic. You've finally dropped any pretense of skepticism?

Jimbo68
21st March 2009, 07:59 PM
In post #3, you claimed to be a consummate skeptic. You've finally dropped any pretense of skepticism?
Assuming your post is serious:), yes I am a consummate skeptic. But on these boards, I am taking the role of arguing this particular case.

Rodney
21st March 2009, 08:11 PM
If you flip a coin 100 times, and you only get Heads, it is still random and ordinary.
Can you document this ever happening?

wollery
21st March 2009, 08:50 PM
I know it is obviously a trick question, but I would say the first one is the deliberate placement of dots and the second one is random. (BTW, sorry Skwinty for interrupting what you were saying.)And you are precisely wrong, as I'm sure you knew you would be. :)

The reason you are wrong is because you make the same mistake almost all people make when interpreting the word "random". Random does not mean "all points are evenly distributed", it means "points are distributed without reference to position of any other point".

The result is that a random sequence can (and usually does) contain clusters and gaps. To most people these look like structure. And indeed the first image looks like it has structure!

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/95745e2e09777944.jpg

There are lines formed by the dots, it looks like they're aligned around spaces or voids in the "pattern". How can that possibly be random I hear you ask? Well, in answer I ask you to consider the second image for a minute;

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/95745e2e097a99ca.jpg

The dots are evenly spaced, which implies that each one was placed with knowledge of where the other dots were. It is extremely regular and organized. By definition, that isn't random. By definition it's designed, and structured.

So, if a dot diagram where the dots are evenly spaced isn't random, then that means that a random dot diagram must have dots that are not evenly spaced, i.e. the dots must be distributed with clumps and gaps.

And that's exactly what you have in the first image.

But don't just take my word for it, try it for yourself. Take a whiteboard marker, or felt-tip pen, and two pieces of paper. On one piece of paper place marks carefully so as to have them evenly spaced. On the other, close your eyes and make unplanned, random marks without looking at it. Guess which will look like which of my images? I'll give you a hint, it's actually really hard, even when you're trying, to get a dot diagram where all the dots are really evenly distributed. It took me five times as long to produce the second diagram, because I had to be careful.

It's also the same mistake that many people make when deciding which numbers to use for their lottery tickets. They look at which numbers have come up the least and use those numbers, based on the idea that those numbers are "due". This is completely wrong. Each lottery drawing is random, and each number has exactly the same probability as any other number. Each lottery drawing is independent of all the others, so it doesn't matter what numbers have come up before. That's why a look at the frequency of lottery numbers will show that some numbers come up more often than other numbers. It isn't because the lottery is "fixed" or that the balls aren't all the same, or that the order in which they are dropped into the machine makes a difference. It is because the drawing is completely random.


As a final note, don't feel bad about getting it wrong, I first came across this dot diagram question when I was a first year PhD student, doing a course on statistics. 7 PhD students, with good degrees in maths, physics and computer programming, and not one of us got it right! :D

Travis
21st March 2009, 09:49 PM
I have yet to hear how this supposed "pattern" was not the work of time travelers or reverse vampires.

desertgal
21st March 2009, 11:28 PM
This advanced alien entity is trying to make us all believe in the "Blessed Virgin Mary"...

And if they want us to believe in ghosts and the Blessed Virgin Mary, apparently they may poss. be against us advancing too far in some areas, say science.

They want us to believe in the Blessed Virgin Mary, and, in order to achieve that, they kill off American presidents and stage a 'miraculous' event to a largely Catholic audience.

Ho-kaaay...

Just alot of crazy theories;).

You said it.

...yes I am a consummate skeptic. But on these boards, I am taking the role of arguing this particular case.

So, really, you are just trolling Got it.

Uncayimmy
22nd March 2009, 12:06 AM
It's also the same mistake that many people make when deciding which numbers to use for their lottery tickets. They look at which numbers have come up the least and use those numbers, based on the idea that those numbers are "due". This is completely wrong. Each lottery drawing is random, and each number has exactly the same probability as any other number. Each lottery drawing is independent of all the others, so it doesn't matter what numbers have come up before. That's why a look at the frequency of lottery numbers will show that some numbers come up more often than other numbers. It isn't because the lottery is "fixed" or that the balls aren't all the same, or that the order in which they are dropped into the machine makes a difference. It is because the drawing is completely random.


Interestingly, people sorta already know this. If you ask them the odds of getting heads when flipping a coin, they say 50-50. Nobody ever asks, "well, what did you get the last 10 times you flipped it?"

wollery
22nd March 2009, 12:59 AM
Interestingly, people sorta already know this. If you ask them the odds of getting heads when flipping a coin, they say 50-50. Nobody ever asks, "well, what did you get the last 10 times you flipped it?"Except that they don't. If you tell them that the last ten times you flipped it you got 6 heads and 4 tails then they are more likely to call tails, because they think that you should have equal numbers of heads and tails, so tails is "due".

RoboTimbo
22nd March 2009, 06:52 AM
Assuming your post is serious:), yes I am a consummate skeptic. But on these boards, I am taking the role of arguing this particular case.

Consummate skeptic doesn't mean what you think it means, then. Skeptics want to see evidence. Woo woos want to put forth WAGs (Wild Ass Guesses).

Well, I have a theory to offer that I hope you all will at least find unique. (Please read...)

Here are theories:
* Relativity, special and general
* Evolution
* Oswald killed Kennedy
* The universe is expanding
* Hijacked passenger airplanes caused the Twin Towers to collapse

Here are WAGs
* The earth is 6000 years old
* Aliens built the pyramids
* Controlled demolition brought down the Twin Towers
* A god created the universe
* Bigfoot roams the Pacific Northwest

Theories are all but proven. Theories can be used to predict future events. Theories have repeatable and testable tenets. Theories are supported by compelling evidence.

WAGs are often put forth as "theories" by woo woos trying to sound credible.

The theory WAG put forth in this thread is partly inspired by Fermi's Paradox...

...Now, I want to make a couple of other things clear here too. I do not believe in UFO's or aliens visiting earth.

Because that would be just outright silly.

Sorry. But this leaves me with one question: Is there anyone anywhere else who shares my beliefs?

Nobody who is skeptical.

And it shouldn't be necessary to say this, but I want to make another point clear here too. I believe this advanced alien (or time traveler) is using their fantastically advanced technology to do this. It is not by spirits or magic or something like that. And as I've said, I don't think they have necessarily visited us. Their amazing technology is somehow doing this all from a distance! Astounding, no?

I have been sharing this story in various ways for a couple of years now.

Ah, so it isn't just "on this board" that you are being a proponent of this WAG and everywhere else you are the "consummate skeptic".

But it is not clear to me how well people are responding to my theory WAG. As I've said, I have had some even weirder experiences of my own. But I choose to just offer you this theory WAG for now--thank you for understanding that:). I do feel confidant other people can see what I am talking about, though, and that there is at least a working hypothesis to be made here. Thank you all for your time:).

Jimbo~

dafydd
23rd March 2009, 01:46 PM
Why don't you all leave Jimbo68 to mess around in his playpen by himself?

desertyeti
23rd March 2009, 02:05 PM
I honestly don't have all the answers. Just alot of crazy theories

Technically, not even theories.
You have speculation and unsubstantiated hypotheses at best.

RoboTimbo
23rd March 2009, 02:52 PM
Why don't you all leave Jimbo68 to mess around in his playpen by himself?

Because there's an E in JREF.

Harpyja
23rd March 2009, 03:49 PM
A scientific theory is "a coherent group of general propositions used as principles of explanation for a class of phenomena" and a hypothesis is "a proposition, or set of propositions, set forth as an explanation for the occurrence of some specified group of phenomena, either asserted merely as a provisional conjecture to guide investigation."

Basically, a scientific theory is composed of propositions called hypothesises. Hypothesis are yes or no questions that can be proven or disproven by experimentation.

Doug Higley
24th March 2009, 09:25 AM
Points to consider:

Ancient peoples had members of their groups who were just as mentally agile and intelligent as SOME people of today.

If odds are a million to one to get hit in the head by a tomato...then 300 people per day in the USA are being hit by tomatos? Per hour? Per minute? Every second? When do the supposed odds re-load?

One in a Million could be the NEXT ONE(first one) or the 3rd or 506th...the odds are useless.


It's all BS. Everything is BS. There are different levels of BS. Choose a level and that's YOUR BS. (Remember that line from 'Hero' and Dustin Hoffman's character?) Higher truth was never spoken.

Show me the body.

dafydd
24th March 2009, 11:04 AM
Because there's an E in JREF.

Touche

desertyeti
24th March 2009, 11:55 AM
Basically, a scientific theory is composed of propositions called hypothesises. Hypothesis are yes or no questions that can be proven or disproven by experimentation.

No.
Hypotheses (plural of hypothesis) are a best guess as to the outcome of an experiment or action,
Theories are the constructed explanations, based on empirical data, that account for the observations and results of the experiment. essentially they are facts. At least as far as science is concerned.

wollery
24th March 2009, 06:18 PM
No.
Hypotheses (plural of hypothesis) are a best guess as to the outcome of an experiment or action,
Theories are the constructed explanations, based on empirical data, that account for the observations and results of the experiment. essentially they are facts. At least as far as science is concerned.Not exactly.

For instance, evolution is an observable fact, but that is distinct from the Theory of Evolution, which explains the mechanisms of inheritance and selection, and is open to correction and falsification.

desertyeti
25th March 2009, 08:24 AM
Changes in gene frequency and expression over time are an observable fact.
Evolution is the theory that accounts for this observation.

Theories are always open to further interpretation and modifications, no matter how slight. (e.g. that evolutionary processes can occur in rapid spurts of highly branching diversification rather than long, drawn-out, steady, linear sequences)
Observable facts simply are. (e.g. organisms change over time).

Without a theory encompassing all the observational data and providing an explanation, there is only a pile of data with no coherent explanation of it.