Will JREF Go On Without Randi?

[Luke T.]

So what will happend to JREF when Randi crosses over, you think? Will it go on? Will this forum survive or be unplugged?

It seems obvious to me that the forum and the foundation will both vanish from the face of the Earth. I realize that a terrific guy has been given the titular reins, but there doesn't seem to be anything forthcoming. If you live outside the JREF bubble, there is dead silence out in the real world.

Is the man in the street even aware of the JREF's existence any more?

It just feels like the whole thing is winding down.

What say you?

[qwints]

The Million Dollar Prize is an effective enough bludgeon to remain in the public consciousness.

[zooterkin]

So what will happend to JREF when Randi crosses over, you think? Will it go on? Will this forum survive or be unplugged?



Crosses over?

Surely the fact that Phil Plait is now in charge of the JREF would suggest that plans are already being followed to ensure the continuation of the Foundation.

[remirol]

So what will happend to JREF when Randi crosses over, you think? Will it go on? Will this forum survive

Yes.

[Wowbagger]

Depends on what Phil Plait (the current President of JREF) does, I suspect.

If he can fulfill his promise to make JREF have more of an impact on improving education, I think it will have a very bright future! But, it's not going to happen over night. We should give him a little time.

Maybe he will update us during TAM7.

The JREF Million Dollar Challenge is going away in a couple of years. But, others will crop up, to take its place. There already are a few strewn around.


And, the forum community will likely survive! Hypothetically speaking: Even if this Forum goes down permanently (which I hope doesn't happen, but this is hypothetical), we will find some other way to stick together as a community!

[Gilmar]

It's my understanding that JREF has been busy making plans ever since (and probably before) Randi's heart problem last year. So, once Randi has left us (or retires to wherever someone already in Florida retires to), the JREF will go on as an Educational Foundation (and Forum).

[Luke T.]

The Million Dollar Prize is an effective enough bludgeon to remain in the public consciousness.

Is the challenge going away?

[Monketey Ghost]

I think he'd probably want it to keep going. A good extension of his legacy.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

So what will happend to JREF when Randi crosses over, you think? Will it go on?

Yes

Will this forum survive or be unplugged?

The former

Is the man in the street even aware of the JREF's existence any more?

Was the man on the street ever aware of JREF's existence??

[six7s]

It seems obvious to me that the forum and the foundation will both vanish from the face of the Earth.
<snip/>
If you live outside the JREF bubble, there is dead silence out in the real world.
<snip/>
What say you?I say that it seems like you are erroneously basing your views on a mistaken assumption that you have an accurate idea of the real world

One plus one does not equal eleventy

[Luke T.]

I say that it seems like you are erroneously basing your views on a mistaken assumption that you have an accurate idea of the real world

One plus one does not equal eleventy

But it does equal the number of people who have heard of JREF outside of the 2000 or so here.

That leaves about 300 million who have not. Give or take eleventy.

I have been around since this forum began. A month or so after it started up. Don't let the date under my username fool you. I have been here since August 2001.

I also have known of Randi since I was a kid. I even consulted him personally in 1996 about an issue of my mother being taken advantage of by charlatans.

I do not see anywhere near the amount of activity out of JREF since Randi semi-retired.

And without the Million Dollar Challenge, what's left?

Is Phil going to go on tour like Randi? Appear on the Tonight Show?

http://i43.tinypic.com/yoxgx.gif


I hope so.

[six7s]

One plus one does not equal eleventyBut it does equal the number of people who have heard of JREF outside of the 2000 or so here.That you so persist with the self-delusion and willful ignorance is sadly fascinating

<anecdote>I have quite a few friends and acquaintances who - like me - have not only known about Randi for many, many years but also have heard that the MDC is soon to 'close'

Many of them have asked me for more info, simply because they know that - for the last couple of years - I have been registered here and they don't even lurk<anecdote>

[The Atheist]

Another anecdote - I have lots of friends and acquaintances, many of whom live in USA and Europe.

Not one of them had ever heard of James Randi or the JREF. Some of them were aware that "someone" had a million-dollar challenge for pyschics. In fact, a whole forum - almost as large as this one - had one member who knew that "Whatsisname" had a challenge, which I managed to figure out was a reference to Randi's one.

Swapping anecdotes is great!

[Luke T.]

That's kinda the whole point, folks. All we can do is speculate. There is no information forthcoming.

[Darat]

What sort of information would you expect them to put out about this type of speculation?

[six7s]

Swapping anecdotes is great!Can be...

However, I'm confuzzled...

Are you suggesting that your anecdote reinforces the notion that 'eleventy does equal the number of people who have heard of JREF outside of the 2000 or so here'?

[Luke T.]

What sort of information would you expect them to put out about this type of speculation?

Randi was an extremely active man. Constant televisoin appearances, a great deal of globetrotting, college and classroom lectures. Widely publicized million dollar challenge tests.

It was easy to see what Randi was up to, and what JREF was up to. After all, before TAM, there was JREF and Randi.

So if one was to ask Randi, hey, watcha up to, he could blow your doors off. He did blow my doors off in 1996 when I talked to him. I was stunned at his energy and his activity. He rattled off his schedule to me like bullets.

Hey, JREF, watcha up to these days?

TAM? Everyone inside the JREF bubble gets something out of it, but it isn't quite the JREF of old.

The Million Dollar Challenge is going away? That's Randi's signature!

Worrisome.

[RecoveringYuppy]

It just feels like the whole thing is winding down.

Looks to me like the forums and TAMs do nothing but grow.

[Cleon]

Hey, JREF, watcha up to these days?

TAM? Everyone inside the JREF bubble gets something out of it, but it isn't quite the JREF of old.

And yet, every year there are more and more people there, to the point where there's now going to be a European edition.

This does not strike me as indicative of an organization that is "winding down."

[Goshawk]

Is the challenge going away?


I thought they were pulling the plug on the Challenge in March 2010. Has it been reinstated and I missed the memo?

[Luke T.]

And yet, every year there are more and more people there, to the point where there's now going to be a European edition.

This does not strike me as indicative of an organization that is "winding down."

And Randi is still around.

[Luke T.]

I thought they were pulling the plug on the Challenge in March 2010. Has it been reinstated and I missed the memo?

Not that I am aware of.

[six7s]

The Million Dollar Challenge is going away? That's Randi's signature!Really? And here was me thinking it was primarily a publicity stunt

About the Foundation (http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/about-the-foundation.html)
To raise public awareness of these issues, the Foundation offers a $1,000,000 prize

... a publicity stunt that costs (actual staff time, not the risk of losing the money) more than its worth

[Luke T.]

Looks to me like the forums and TAMs do nothing but grow.

Is this a good indicator of public awareness of the Foundation and its goals?

What is JREF doing to carry the message to the masses? A TAM certainly doesn't do that.

Perhaps people do a search of "psychics" on Google and stumble across the forum that way. Which is a good argument for keeping the forum going. But such things as that requires a person to actively seek out knowledge. It does not go to them, they come to it.

[kookbreaker]

TAM gets more folks every year.

The Million Dollar challenge is being ended so the money can be freed up for better investments, so that there is more money for the educational part of JREF. This was made clear some months ago, if not a year ago.

Phil Plaitt has taken over and would like to do as much media as possible. It takes time to get that kind of clout, however, and even Randi didn't have a ton of appearances off the tonight show. Most of what he did besides the tonight show was Larry King, and those weren't exactly great for anyone. Media appearances will take time to bring up to speed.

The JREF has added videos to youtube, despite the recent setback with the account. Randi is at least making a modern effort to get the word out.

Winding down? Given that in the past the mantra seemed to be 'When Randi dies the JREF and its one or two employees will get folded into the skeptics society', and now it seems to be planning for genuine existence beyond Randi....

Winding down? I think you've not been paying attention.

[Luke T.]

Really? And here was me thinking it was primarily a publicity stunt

About the Foundation (http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/about-the-foundation.html)


... a publicity stunt that costs (actual staff time, not the risk of losing the money) more than its worth

Oh, so it IS about the money!

I think the MDC was worth far more than its cost.

[Luke T.]

TAM gets more folks every year.

The Million Dollar challenge is being ended so the money can be freed up for better investments, so that there is more money for the educational part of JREF. This was made clear some months ago, if not a year ago.

Phil Plaitt has taken over and would like to do as much media as possible. It takes time to get that kind of clout, however, and even Randi didn't have a ton of appearances off the tonight show. Most of what he did besides the tonight show was Larry King, and those weren't exactly great for anyone. Media appearances will take time to bring up to speed.

The JREF has added videos to youtube, despite the recent setback with the account. Randi is at least making a modern effort to get the word out.

Winding down? Given that in the past the mantra seemed to be 'When Randi dies the JREF and its one or two employees will get folded into the skeptics society', and now it seems to be planning for genuine existence beyond Randi....

Winding down? I think you've not been paying attention.

I have used the LKL appearances by Randi like a hammer. You had not one, but two, psychics on LKL within a few days before 9/11, and neither one said a word about the impending terrorist attack.

I've seen Phil on the History channel recently.

[Luke T.]

The common glue is Randi in all of this.

[kookbreaker]

Is this a good indicator of public awareness of the Foundation and its goals?

What is JREF doing to carry the message to the masses? A TAM certainly doesn't do that.
.

I disagree. TAM increased its size dramatically when it moved from Winter to Summer simply because more teachers could attend.

You know, teachers. The ones who educate children. Influence their thinking, et al.

Or do you measure success by how many times Randi shows up on Larry King and doesn't get to say anything meaningful?

[six7s]

...when Randi crosses over...Ugh!

When Randi dies, he'll be dead. Simple. Surely you know that he knows that

Why use such an inappropriate euphemism?

[The Atheist]

Are you suggesting that your anecdote reinforces the notion that 'eleventy does equal the number of people who have heard of JREF outside of the 2000 or so here'?

Nope, I was just giving an anecdote which is the exact opposite of yours, but which is nevertheless true.

What impact and brand awareness JREF has, I have no idea.

[Luke T.]

The JREF has added videos to youtube, despite the recent setback with the account. Randi is at least making a modern effort to get the word out.


Is Randi making videos, or Phil? Or both?

[Luke T.]

Or do you measure success by how many times Randi shows up on Larry King and doesn't get to say anything meaningful?

Do you consider getting Sylvia Browne on LKL to agree to taking the MDC meaningless?

Randi sure didn't.

What sort of media attention does TAM get outside of some local society pages and skeptic blogs?

I am not saying TAMs are valueless. They have value. For people already aware of JREF.

[Luke T.]

You know, a leading member of JREF once said that 97 percent of the topics on this forum were valueless to the cause of skepticism and the foundation.

[zooterkin]

You know, a leading member of JREF once said that 97 percent of the topics on this forum were valueless to the cause of skepticism and the foundation.
Are you trying to prove him right?

[Luke T.]

Isn't the increase in the size of the forum membership and TAM attendance just another anecdote of the impact of JREF on the general public?

[six7s]

I think the MDC was worth far more than its cost.So what? You don't control the purse strings

swift-january-4-2008 THE JREF MILLION-DOLLAR CHALLENGE (http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/swift-blog/144-swift-january-4-2008.html#i4)

All this brings us to the Subject of the Week here on SWIFT.
pic

It was March 6th, 1998, when the JREF Million-Dollar Challenge first came into existence. That’s almost ten years ago. It’s always been a simple, direct, matter: do what you claim you can do of a paranormal nature, and walk away with the prize. Our expectations at first were that we’d attract major personalities by this means, but they’ve avoided having to take the test by simply not applying; those who have actually applied are generally honestly self-deluded persons who have difficulty stating what they can do, which can be understood if they really don’t know what they’re experiencing; we at JREF have gone through involved procedures to help them recognize their problems. Usually, they have indicated that they don’t know what real scientific rules are, when it comes down to their actually being properly tested.

All this is obvious to anyone who has followed the action over the last decade. Now, while the JREF earns a certain income from having the prize money very conservatively invested, that sum could certainly be used more productively if it were made freely available to us.

As of March 6th, 2010 – twelve years after the challenge was first offered – it will be.

The James Randi Educational Foundation Million-Dollar Challenge will be discontinued 24 months from this coming March 6th, and those prize funds will then be available to generally add to our flexibility. This move will free us to do many more projects, which will be announced at that time.

This means that all those wishing to be claimants are required to get their applications in before the deadline, properly filled out and notarized as described in the published rules.

Now, we’re sure that there will be those who will offer all kinds of objections to this decision – though they could have simply applied and won the prize. There will be accusations that the JREF is concerned about the safety of the prize money – which was never any sort of concern, I can assure you – and there will be more claims that the money was never there in the first place. I can see the professionals out there sighing in relief that they no longer have to answer questions about why they won’t take the prize, and they’ll just wait out the remaining period that the prize is available. All that’s to be expected.

Ten years is long enough to wait. The hundreds of poorly-constructed applications, and the endless hours of phone, e-mail, and in-person discussions we’ve had to suffer through, will be things of the past, for us at the JREF.

Those who believe they have mystic powers now have two full years to apply… Let’s see what happens.

[Luke T.]

Wouldn't a more reliable data set be a national poll on UFOs, ghosts, psychics, and such?

[Luke T.]

Are you trying to prove him right?

Are you saying a topic about Randi and what will happen to the Foundation after he is gone is not relevant to the cause of skepticism or the foundation?

Please explain.

[paximperium]

Isn't the increase in the size of the forum membership and TAM attendance just another anecdote of the impact of JREF on the general public?
No more than the deaths from gun shot wound to the head is an anecdote of the impact of a bullet against someone's head.

[paximperium]

Wouldn't a more reliable data set be a national poll on UFOs, ghosts, psychics, and such?
How?

[Luke T.]

So what? You don't control the purse strings

That also goes to my point. If the MDC will not go on, what else won't go on?

The MDC was a signature tool of Randi's.

Before it was the million dollar challenge, it was the ten thousand dollar challenge. I recall a show with Penn and Teller and Randi which I think was a one hundred thousand dollar challenge.

So that statement that "ten years is enough" is not entirely factual. The Challenge has been around much longer than that. I remember talking to Randi about it in 1996.

[Luke T.]

How?

The effectiveness of education is judged by testing the subject material.

[Monketey Ghost]

The foundation will maybe have to come up with a new schtick to get people to focus on who's telling stories and who ain't.

[Luke T.]

If I could show that membership on paranormal forums was growing faster than this one, would that be of any significance as to JREF's success?

[paximperium]

That also goes to my point. If the MDC will not go on, what else won't go on?
Ah, I see your lack of logic here. So it a slippery slope fallacy.

The MDC was a signature tool of Randi's.

Before it was the million dollar challenge, it was the ten thousand dollar challenge. I recall a show with Penn and Teller and Randi which I think was a one hundred thousand dollar challenge.

So that statement that "ten years is enough" is not entirely factual. The Challenge has been around much longer than that. I remember talking to Randi about it in 1996.So?

[Luke T.]

This forum is puny compared to some paranormal forums out there. And the TAMs are puny compared to the turnouts at their gatherings.

[chillzero]

If I could show that membership on paranormal forums was growing faster than this one, would that be of any significance as to JREF's success?

No. Many skeptics also join other forums ... just as various believers join this one.

I'm not sure why the fact that Randi passed significant responsibility to Phil, and has clearly indicated there are plans to keep the JREF going with or without him isn't enough of an answer.

[Luke T.]

The foundation will maybe have to come up with a new schtick to get people to focus on who's telling stories and who ain't.

It's all about teaching critical thinking. For instance, if YouTube were to suddenly pull JREF's videos off the internet, it would not be critical thinking to leap to the conclusion that creationists were behind it with absolutely no input data.

[paximperium]

If I could show that membership on paranormal forums was growing faster than this one, would that be of any significance as to JREF's success?
No. Why should it?

[six7s]

Wouldn't a more reliable data set be a national poll on UFOs, ghosts, psychics, and such?Why suggest such a geographically limited sample size?

[Luke T.]

No. Many skeptics also join other forums ... just as various believers join this one.

I'm not sure why the fact that Randi passed significant responsibility to Phil, and has clearly indicated there are plans to keep the JREF going with or without him isn't enough of an answer.

"Indicated there are plans."

Secret plans, I guess.

[Harpyja]

You know, a leading member of JREF once said that 97 percent of the topics on this forum were valueless to the cause of skepticism and the foundation.

There is a point to this, although of course I'm going to ignore the 97 percent value. ;)

I think in all honesty members of JREF should concern themselves with providing accurate information on contemporary skeptical issues with articles that are easily accessible and readable by the general public. For example, in the Science subforum, I am of the opinion there should be a main "sticky" on points and counterpoints to the Intelligent Design & Evolution arguments. In Religion, current United States Supreme Court decisions and precedents, along with past overturned decisions - with clarification on cases such as Roe v. Wade, various school prayer rulings, etc.

I'd be happy to write a United States Supreme Court decisions summary if you guys think it would be a good idea.

[paximperium]

It's all about teaching critical thinking. For instance, if YouTube were to suddenly pull JREF's videos off the internet, it would not be critical thinking to leap to the conclusion that creationists were behind it with absolutely no input data.
You mean Creationist prior behavior of doing exactly that should not be taken into account when determining cause? Interesting definition of "critical thinking".

[Luke T.]

Why suggest such a geographically limited sample size?

Randi's base of operations is in the U.S.

Are you suggesting JREF has had a measurable global impact in the last few years?

[Luke T.]

You mean Creationist prior behavior of doing exactly that should not be taken into account when determining cause? Interesting definition of "critical thinking".

No, it should not. If I flipped a coin and got tails six times in a row, would that affect the outcome of my next toss?

[paximperium]

"Indicated there are plans."

Secret plans, I guess.
I love the insinuation that silence equates to nothing. Now that is what I call "critical thinking".

[chillzero]

"Indicated there are plans."

Secret plans, I guess.
He assigned someone else to run the JREF. That would indicate very clearly that it's business as usual. As I said - not sure why you think there wouldn't be JREF in years to come.

[paximperium]

No, it should not. If I flipped a coin and got tails six times in a row, should that be a determining factor in guessing my next toss? Yes. The chance of that happening is low. You have to consider the possibility that the coin is weighted or bias or you are flipping it wrong. You have no idea what you are talking about.

[paximperium]

Randi's base of operations is in the U.S.

Are you suggesting JREF has had a measurable global impact in the last few years?
He must have missed the European TAM and the popularity of skepticism in Australia. Sorry for the ignorant US-centric American.

[Luke T.]

There is a point to this, although of course I'm going to ignore the 97 percent value. ;)

I think in all honesty members of JREF should concern themselves with providing accurate information on contemporary skeptical issues with articles that are easily accessible and readable by the general public. For example, in the Science subforum, I am of the opinion there should be a main "sticky" on points and counterpoints to the Intelligent Design & Evolution arguments. In Religion, current United States Supreme Court decisions and precedents, along with past overturned decisions - with clarification on cases such as Roe v. Wade, various school prayer rulings, etc.

I'd be happy to write a United States Supreme Court decisions summary if you guys think it would be a good idea.

Hey, go to the Forum Spotlight and open up the oldest original topics that were placed there. Look at the italicized introductions in the opening posts and see who wrote them. ;)

[MattusMaximus]

So what will happend to JREF when Randi crosses over, you think? Will it go on? Will this forum survive or be unplugged?

Yes and it will survive.

It seems obvious to me that the forum and the foundation will both vanish from the face of the Earth. I realize that a terrific guy has been given the titular reins, but there doesn't seem to be anything forthcoming. If you live outside the JREF bubble, there is dead silence out in the real world.

The "JREF bubble"? Seems to me that, more now than ever, the JREF is getting more and more involved with the "real world", as you put it.

Is the man in the street even aware of the JREF's existence any more?

I would say that more people are aware of JREF or, at least by extension, the skeptical movement.

It just feels like the whole thing is winding down.

What say you?

Funny, I had exactly the opposite impression.

[Luke T.]

Yeah, look at Golden Gate Jumpers and the Dover Evolution trial topics.

[Luke T.]

Yes. The chance of that happening is low. You have to consider the possibility that the coin is weighted or bias or you are flipping it wrong. You have no idea what you are talking about.

Actually, I do. People came to conclusions with no evidence.

I guess it is a good enough criteria to start a war over, though, huh? The "wouldn't put it past 'em" school of skepticism.

[Luke T.]

No. Why should it?

Simple. If the rate of growth of this forum is below the rate of growth of the opposition's forums, then the effectiveness of the foundation is below that of the competition's and is therefore failing.

It wasn't me who made the growth of this forum a measure of the foundation's success. But you can't measure it in a self-referential bubble.

[Blackadder]

I am very disappointed that not a single 'Look at me I am getting 17.3 million in bonuses'-CEO has stepped up and donated 1 million in the past years to the JREF just for the MDC. Surely there must be a few generous freethinkers among the captains of industry????

[paximperium]

Actually, I do. People came to conclusions with no evidence.
Good for you. Great response when your false analogy has been dismantled.

I guess it is a good enough criteria to start a war over, though, huh? The "wouldn't put it past 'em" school of skepticism.
No it is the "The vast majority of all prior DMCA take down notices against Skepticism and Atheism videos are attributed to Creationists." therefore we need to look into this.

[paximperium]

Simple. If the rate of growth of this forum is below the rate of growth of the opposition's forums, then the effectiveness of the foundation is below that of the competition's and is therefore failing.

It wasn't me who made the growth of this forum a measure of the foundation's success. But you can't measure it in a self-referential bubble. No. The original point is that Forum is growing and hence a marker that the JREF will not suddenly vanish like you've been claiming similar to the growth of TAM. It is not a marker for how successful the JREF is overall.

Glad I could correct your "error". Glad to see you've abandoned your "JREF will die without Randi" to "JREF is an epic failure" smear.

[six7s]

Wouldn't a more reliable data set be a national poll on UFOs, ghosts, psychics, and such?Why suggest such a geographically limited sample size?

Randi's base of operations is in the U.S.

Are you suggesting JREF has had a measurable global impact in the last few years?No... I wasn't - simply because, rather than making a jump to the left and speculate on what is likely to be unquantifiable, I was trying to follow your 'idea' that a poll on UFOs, ghosts, psychics, and such might be useful

Sorry I can't keep up

[Luke T.]

No. The original point is that Forum is growing and hence a marker that the JREF will not suddenly vanish like you've been claiming similar to the growth of TAM. It is not a marker for how successful the JREF is overall.

Glad I could correct your "error". Glad to see you've abandoned your "JREF will die without Randi" to "JREF is an epic failure" smear.

Would you be kind enough to quote my posts where I said JREF will die without Randi, please?

Also, my JREF is an epic failure posts.

Thanks.

[Luke T.]

No. The original point is that Forum is growing and hence a marker that the JREF will not suddenly vanish like you've been claiming similar to the growth of TAM. It is not a marker for how successful the JREF is overall.

I think if something is being outpaced by its competition, it does not bode well for its future. That's usually how it ends up working out.


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[jhunter1163]

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=136060

[Cleon]

Would you be kind enough to quote my posts where I said JREF will die without Randi, please?

Uh, from the OP:

So what will happend to JREF when Randi crosses over, you think? Will it go on? Will this forum survive or be unplugged?

It seems obvious to me that the forum and the foundation will both vanish from the face of the Earth.

[Luke T.]

Good for you. Great response when your false analogy has been dismantled.

No it is the "The vast majority of all prior DMCA take down notices against Skepticism and Atheism videos are attributed to Creationists." therefore we need to look into this.

Actually, it is, "We have absolutely no input from the JREF staff as to why YouTube took the videos down. Therefore, we need to wait until we hear from them as to what happened before we go off half-cocked."

A couple people got it right.

[paximperium]

Would you be kind enough to quote my posts where I said JREF will die without Randi, please?
It seems obvious to me that the forum and the foundation will both vanish from the face of the Earth. I realize that a terrific guy has been given the titular reins, but there doesn't seem to be anything forthcoming. If you live outside the JREF bubble, there is dead silence out in the real world.

/

Also, my JREF is an epic failure posts.This forum is puny compared to some paranormal forums out there. And the TAMs are puny compared to the turnouts at their gatherings.
Randi's base of operations is in the U.S.

Are you suggesting JREF has had a measurable global impact in the last few years?
Simple. If the rate of growth of this forum is below the rate of growth of the opposition's forums, then the effectiveness of the foundation is below that of the competition's and is therefore failing.

It wasn't me who made the growth of this forum a measure of the foundation's success. But you can't measure it in a self-referential bubble.

Thanks.You're welcome

Oh yeah and after you posted all of the above, one more:
I think if something is being outpaced by its competition, it does not bode well for its future. That's usually how it ends up working out.

[Luke T.]

Uh, from the OP:

Ah. Very good.

Too bad for paximperium I have not abandoned my opinion that JREF won't long survive after Randi.

Time will tell.

[Luke T.]

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=136060

There has been no official announcement that the MDC will go on.

[paximperium]

Ah. Very good.

Too bad for paximperium I have not abandoned my opinion that JREF won't long survive after Randi.

Time will tell.
So that justifies your lie about not making this claim?

or how you abandoned it once you realized you didn't have anything relevant to advance your nonsense? Well, we can see the credibility of your "opinion" here.

[Luke T.]

The Penn State Paranormal Research Society (PRS) has come along way since organizing in 2001. And so has UNIV-CON, a nationally renowned paranormal conference that, in 2007, saw attendance reach well over 1,200 people.

What started out as a small college program has evolved in to a grand scale event, dubbed by many in the paranormal community as one of the largest paranormal conferences of its kind.


UNIV-CON 2008 (http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:hKaTAU9tCmcJ:univcon2008.pennstatep rs.com/2008/03/03/paranormal-research-society-to-reinvent-univcon-its-national-paranormal-conference.aspx+paranormal+convention+2008+attenda nce&cd=5&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us)

[Luke T.]

So that justifies your lie about not making this claim?

or how you abandoned it once you realized you didn't have anything relevant to advance your nonsense? Well, we can see the credibility of your "opinion" here.

I have not abandoned my opinion. That's unskeptical wishful thinking on your part.

[Wowbagger]

I think the bottomline is this:

JREF will go on without Randi. It won't be the same without Randi.

But, "different" does not necessarily mean "worse".

In fact, fresh blood is probably our best bet for developing a new, innovative "special sauce", that will keep JREF unique, whatever that happens to be.

[Wowbagger]

Oh, and I think you're changing the subject. Now, it seems you are arguing that woo conventions are more popular than skeptical ones. But, that has no bearing on weather or not JREF will "go on", anyway. All that indicates is that there is a lot of work to do, so we better get JREF growing.

[Luke T.]

So that justifies your lie about not making this claim?

or how you abandoned it once you realized you didn't have anything relevant to advance your nonsense? Well, we can see the credibility of your "opinion" here.

I'd be careful with that temper.

[athon]

I disagree. TAM increased its size dramatically when it moved from Winter to Summer simply because more teachers could attend.

Although that was the plan, I'm not aware of any evidence (I asked once and received nothing more in response than the same vague speculation I had) that it succeeded. If anything, there was suggestion that it made little impact on bringing in significantly more teachers, given a) the expense and b) it wasn't sold as relevant to education.

The best thing to come out of the last TAM was a group of teachers who were eagre to promote a better understanding of critical thinking education, which resulted in the formation of CTEG (http://www.criticalteaching.org/). While the group is currently somewhat quiet (teachers are a rather busy lot), it has produced some rather good discussion on how best to teach critical thinking and produce resources. This group was formed independantly of the JREF out of a general dissatisfaction with their attitude towards their understanding of effective education.

I was also optimistic about Phil taking outreach and education a little more seriously, given he has somewhat closer ties with it. After a couple of unanswered emails (one suggesting more of a possible relationship between my own educational outreach group) and the JREF, and no real expression of willingness to seek expert advice on pedagogical matters, I'm not feeling that optimism any more.

Athon

[six7s]

I have not abandoned my opinion. That's unskeptical wishful thinking on your part.And that is both a non-sequitor and an illogical assumption on your part

Do you actually have a point to make or are you merely intent on wasting bandwidth?

[paximperium]

I have not abandoned my opinion. That's unskeptical wishful thinking on your part.
You should not blame others for your inability to communicate or mount or an honest argument. Your opinion is not credible since all your silly nonsense has been dismantled. To think that it is, is not only unskeptical, it is delusional.

You should review your own nonsense and try to do a better job unlike what you've been doing. You should be upfront with your agenda instead in hiding behind insinuations and potshots. That's a sign of a coward.

[Luke T.]

Oh, and I think you're changing the subject. Now, it seems you are arguing that woo conventions are more popular than skeptical ones. But, that has no bearing on weather or not JREF will "go on", anyway. All that indicates is that there is a lot of work to do, so we better get JREF growing.

It was brought up that an indication that JREF will go on is that the forum and TAM attendance has grown. I am simply responding to those claims.

Simple business fact. If your competition is outgrowing you, your business is in serious jeopardy.

I absolutely agree with you that JREF better get busy. Soon.

[paximperium]

I'd be careful with that temper.
You are projecting. Very sad, but if it makes you feel better, go ahead and believe that you are making a great point. I'm very generous.

When you have nothing else to add, you need to step back and reconsider your arguments...oh wait you have none, nevermind.

[athon]

He must have missed the European TAM and the popularity of skepticism in Australia. Sorry for the ignorant US-centric American.

The 'popularity of skepticism in Australia' isn't quite what it seems. Unfortunately, while there are some shining stars in our midst of skeptics (Richard, Kiless, Karen Stollznow...), as a collective they're pretty incompetent. Nobody knows much about them here, and those that do share the same attitudes as people in the US and UK.

The positive thing about skepticism here is that our education system is fairly good at promoting a positive culture for critical thinking skills to build on later in life. The external social culture is also fairly supportive of skeptical thinking, for the most part. I wouldn't put any of this down to adequate outreach by skeptical groups, sorry.

Athon

[paximperium]

It was brought up that an indication that JREF will go on is that the forum and TAM attendance has grown. I am simply responding to those claims.

Simple business fact. If your competition is outgrowing you, your business is in serious jeopardy.Since the JREF is not a business, your point is irrelevant and continues to be wrong.

I absolutely agree with you that JREF better get busy. Soon.
Why soon? Oh, because of Randi. Still pushing that nonsense huh?

[kittynh]

wow, Luke, what is happening in your life?

Yeah oddly, things are being planned. Those of us on the cruise (and I hung with at least 4 people that had only recently learned of JREF) heard some good news which will be shared soon. We were asked not to share until things were finalized.

Happy news for all those that LOVE the skeptic movement.

I mean, chortling over the demise of something that is important to many, is a bit negative. Sorry to sound all California about this, but how about a nice chat with your boss about your feelings. He sounds like a great guy, and as you know he and I share one important thing in common.. besides wanting the best for you and your family.

I know at least 20 people coming to TAM, and this will be their first (and remember I don't know a lot of people) and they so NEED to feel connected to a community. Why do I go to church? Because I like the connection to others. I mean, if not for that sense of community.. your logic says churches should only exsist for atheists to go to.

Go talk with a human, a good human. One that cares about you as much as many of us care about you.

[paximperium]

The 'popularity of skepticism in Australia' isn't quite what it seems. Unfortunately, while there are some shining stars in our midst of skeptics (Richard, Kiless, Karen Stollznow...), as a collective they're pretty incompetent. Nobody knows much about them here, and those that do share the same attitudes as people in the US and UK.

The positive thing about skepticism here is that our education system is fairly good at promoting a positive culture for critical thinking skills to build on later in life. The external social culture is also fairly supportive of skeptical thinking, for the most part. I wouldn't put any of this down to adequate outreach by skeptical groups, sorry.

AthonSorry for this ignorant US-centric American.

[Luke T.]

And that is both a non-sequitor and an illogical assumption on your part

Do you actually have a point to make or are you merely intent on wasting bandwidth?

Are you still upset over the "crossing over" comment? Where is this hostility coming from?

Since you asked earlier, I used "crossing over" as a John Edward reference. I spent a lot of time battling JE fans back in the day on here and on their own forum. ;)

Hope that helps.

[athon]

Sorry for this ignorant US-centric American.

Consider yourself educated. :p

Athon

[Luke T.]

wow, Luke, what is happening in your life?

Not much. Things are pretty routine these days. You?

Or did you ask because Hal is back there somewhere again saying I must be drunk?

I mean, chortling over the demise of something that is important to many, is a bit negative.

Chortling? I am far from chortling. If JREF went down, there would be few angrier about it than me.

I appreciate you taking the time to post in this topic, kitty. I really do. I was just looking at a photo of our daughter in the hat you made not even one week ago.

[Luke T.]

I think the bottomline is this:

JREF will go on without Randi. It won't be the same without Randi.

You have no idea how much I pray that is true.

Maybe that is a bad choice of words. six7s might be offended by "pray".

But, "different" does not necessarily mean "worse".

Don't I know it!

[six7s]

Are you still upset over the "crossing over" comment? I wasn't upset then

I am not upset now

Dismayed, perhaps

Where is this hostility coming from?From you

And wholly within you

Its called 'projection', as in:I'd be careful with that temper.
Deal with it

[Luke T.]

Those of us on the cruise (and I hung with at least 4 people that had only recently learned of JREF) heard some good news which will be shared soon. We were asked not to share until things were finalized.

Happy news for all those that LOVE the skeptic movement.

I look forward to hearing the good news, kitty.

[kittynh]

I think it will be terrific news Luke.

It's rather like when a beloved pastor dies or retires.

The point is that Randi has been a great inspiration for many of us. Sadly, he's not immortal. Randi and others have been trying to get up as many youtubes as we can to introduce a whole new generation to him.

Even as we write this a whole new generation of skeptics is learning and growig, getting ready to take on the burden Randi and Gardner and Asimov and the other greats have carried for so long...sadly many of the best like Asimov, Andruss and Sagan are gone already.

Will there be a JREF? Well, I don't think JREF will be like it is now. Will there be places for skeptics to share friendship, teach the curious, inspire, educate and just plain old joke around? YES!

Heck we've got a JREF skeptic wedding this month!! It's the third JREF wedding to be I've heard about! Now that's something to celebrate and to hope that places where skeptics can meet, be friends and maybe even fall in love and get married will continue forever!

[The Atheist]

I am very disappointed that not a single 'Look at me I am getting 17.3 million in bonuses'-CEO has stepped up and donated 1 million in the past years to the JREF just for the MDC. Surely there must be a few generous freethinkers among the captains of industry????

Bill Gates and Scrutinizer's Pal "Mr Buffet" are help up as examples of secular philanthropists, but you're right, I don't see them starting up a billion-dollar challenge.

Heck we've got a JREF skeptic wedding this month!! It's the third JREF wedding to be I've heard about! Now that's something to celebrate and to hope that places where skeptics can meet, be friends and maybe even fall in love and get married will continue forever!

A skeptical dating site - that is indeed something to aspire to.

[JihadJane]

Randi will keep JREF going from the Other Side.

[Wowbagger]

Simple business fact. If your competition is outgrowing you, your business is in serious jeopardy. This is not a zero-sum game. JREF and its Forum can continue to operate, even if it is wildly out-inflated by the woo groups.

[Darat]

Had a few thoughts about the issues raised in this thread.

Can the JREF continue after Randi dies or completely retires? Well the only reason that it couldn't would be if the JREF didn't have the finances to continue and given how much income Randi has generated for the JREF over the years that is quite a legitimate concern. But given that many organisations do survive the death of or retirement of their founder and figurehead I think it is a tad premature to assume that the JREF wouldn't be able to deal with this issue. Also the fact that the JREF survived Randi's near-death-experience and his subsequent unplanned drastically reduced workload and has already re-organised itself around Randi's semi-retirement shows that it can cope with even quite radical changes in the organisation.

Somewhere along the thread someone was saying something like "The JREF appears to be winding down." Well the JREF is a tiny organisation (albeit it has grown a bit over the last eighteen months or so) so it has never done "a lot" so it wouldn't take much of change for it to seem to be winding down. However the evidence is that it is engaging in more activities these days then it did say 5 years ago. (Whether you think the increase in activities are what it should be doing is an entirely different question.)

[Azrael 5]

*snip*
The JREF Million Dollar Challenge is going away in a couple of years. But, others will crop up, to take its place. There already are a few strewn around.


Unless Randi has changed his mind back it isn't ending now.;)

[Wowbagger]

Unless Randi has changed his mind back it isn't ending now.;)
Nah. That could never happen! That would violate all the laws of physics!! ;)

[shawmutt]

It's not an issue really. Once Randi "crosses over", John Edwards will be hired on as a liaison.

[dann]

The foundation will maybe have to come up with a new schtick to get people to focus on who's telling stories and who ain't.

I've recently been very annoyed by the way the MDC unintentionally encourages the delusions of the deluded (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=4575710#post4575710).
In my opionion the MDC 2.0 should be offered to a handful of people only, people like John Edwards, Sylvia Browne, Uri Geller etc. (Or maybe on a national basis: I have a couple of Danish nominees ...)

It does not really help the self-deceived that their need to believe that they have supernatural powers and/or are chosen by God to deliver a message to the rest of humanity is supplemented by the delusion that they are about to become a million dollars richer. It also does not do much for the enlightenment of skeptics or doubters that a couple of self-deceivers that nobody believes in anyway are exposed as self-deceived.

As for Randi's impact on the rest of the world: Look at the number of translations of his articles and books!
I don't doubt that Skepticism will survive Randi, but unfortunately so will the need for skepticism in the near future. As is well known, the graveyards are full of indispensable people. Fortunately he is not one of them yet.

[NiallM]

I think he'd probably want it to keep going. A good extension of his legacy.

I think that he'd be even happier if it became redundant. Knowing that there was no further need for it and that its aims were achieved would be the ultimate legacy.

[erlando]

I say that it seems like you are erroneously basing your views on a mistaken assumption that you have an accurate idea of the real world

One plus one does not equal eleventy
But it does equal the number of people who have heard of JREF outside of the 2000 or so here.
That leaves about 300 million who have not. Give or take eleventy.

Let me guess? You're an american?

[Luke T.]

This is not a zero-sum game. JREF and its Forum can continue to operate, even if it is wildly out-inflated by the woo groups.

The Foundation depends on contributions. If it does not grow at the same pace as the competition, it can lose contributions by being lost in the noise.

But also at issue is the question of whether Randi is actually committed to the furtherance of his foundation after he is gone, or if he just doesn't care.

Perhaps he just want to ensure Carlos has a steady income after he is gone.

Anyone's guess.

[Luke T.]

Let me guess? You're an american?

The question of JREF's impact on the world would be even harder to measure outside the JREF bubble.

I'm sure the founation looks very busy and active from inside a Vegas conference room.

[chillzero]

Some off topic posts removed. Please remember to stay on topic in threads, and also do not personalise discussions.
Also - do not post off topic in threads by complaining that no mod action has occurred, when none of the posts have been reported (or if they have, don't complain within 5 mins of reporting them). That's just stupid.

[paximperium]

Let me summarize Luke T's point:
He believes that after Randi dies, that the JREF will fall apart. He bases this belief on...nothing really. He bases it on a complete and utter lack of information, wild speculation, ignorance about its successes or failure and on unrelated correlations.

In summary, he makes this claim based on his ignorance. Not very interesting at all.

[remirol]

The Foundation depends on contributions. If it does not grow at the same pace as the competition, it can lose contributions by being lost in the noise.

Again, you deliberately misunderstand. The Foundation and other organizations are not in competition for the same dollars. Nobody who would donate to Sylvia Browne is going to donate to the JREF, and vice versa. It does not need to grow "as fast as" its competition to survive. You can keep insisting on this all you like, but it won't make it any more true.

That is what Wowbagger means by "this is not a zero sum game". He's right. It's not. Five dollars that is not donated to JREF does not automatically go to some woo-peddler. Sometimes, it just goes to buy a pint at the local.

[Luke T.]

Again, you deliberately misunderstand. The Foundation and other organizations are not in competition for the same dollars. Nobody who would donate to Sylvia Browne is going to donate to the JREF, and vice versa. It does not need to grow "as fast as" its competition to survive. You can keep insisting on this all you like, but it won't make it any more true.

That is what Wowbagger means by "this is not a zero sum game". He's right. It's not. Five dollars that is not donated to JREF does not automatically go to some woo-peddler. Sometimes, it just goes to buy a pint at the local.

How does a woo become a woo? How does a skeptic become a skeptic? Everyone starts out a blank slate. Whoever writes on that person's mind first has the advantage and gets the dollars.

Simple marketing principles. If you are outpaced by the competition, you lose your market share.

[technoextreme]

How does a woo become a woo? How does a skeptic become a skeptic? Everyone starts out a blank slate. Whoever writes on that person's mind first has the advantage and gets the dollars.

What the hell are you blathering on about? When I was very young I believed in stuff like UFOs, Sylvia Browne, and ghosts. I eventually grew out of that phase. I would imagine that the E in JREF helped. Also, FIRST does very well promoting science and technology and it does not reach kids until they are fairly old. It pretty much beats everyone on the funding front.

[remirol]

How does a woo become a woo? How does a skeptic become a skeptic? Everyone starts out a blank slate. Whoever writes on that person's mind first has the advantage and gets the dollars.

Simple marketing principles. If you are outpaced by the competition, you lose your market share.

I don't know how many more times I can repeat this: This isn't a zero-sum game. A dollar to Sylvia doesn't mean that dollar was ever available for JREF.

Also, the above implies a false dichotomy, that someone is either woo _or_ skeptic, with no realm inbetween. It isn't quite so simple in practice; there's a large grey area.

[Wowbagger]

How does a woo become a woo? How does a skeptic become a skeptic? Everyone starts out a blank slate. Whoever writes on that person's mind first has the advantage and gets the dollars.

Simple marketing principles. If you are outpaced by the competition, you lose your market share. What Luke T. said.

Plus: You neglect the fact that separate ecosystems of human interest could persist indefinately. Someone like you would have probably predicted that the Amish would die out, as a viable way of life, as technology takes over more of most people's lives. But, they are still here, living in the United States!

I think you were probably taught some models of society that are far too simplisitic.

[six7s]

Everyone starts out a blank slate.
Yep
Whoever writes on that person's mind first has the advantage and gets the dollars.
Nope

Try taking your idea to the extremes and you'll see how it is bollocks from whoa to go

[Geek Goddess]

I was also optimistic about Phil taking outreach and education a little more seriously, given he has somewhat closer ties with it. After a couple of unanswered emails (one suggesting more of a possible relationship between my own educational outreach group) and the JREF, and no real expression of willingness to seek expert advice on pedagogical matters, I'm not feeling that optimism any more.

Athon

Other than restructuring some of the staff, if Phil's doing anything, it's under the radar. I spend a fair bit of time online researching, and don't see much of anything that he is doing that isn't related to his own blogs and books, or for that matter, what A Kovacs is doing. I know that organizing conferences is a tremendous job, and that it doesn't take place in the public eye. Running a a large organization, whether it's a for-profit business like I run, or a non-for-profit org, takes experience in business and personnel management, experience that you can't pull out of a pocket. I'm extremely disappointed that I've not seen anything of substance, but as I am a rather low-level contributor, I don't have anyone's ear. That you have have some valid experience in outreach and education, and have been ignored, is very disappointing as well.

[bpesta22]

Ha ha, I've been here longer than Luke T.

Maybe that's why this thing never took off?

[Bill Thompson]

So what will happend to JREF when Randi crosses over, you think? Will it go on? Will this forum survive or be unplugged?

It seems obvious to me that the forum and the foundation will both vanish from the face of the Earth. I realize that a terrific guy has been given the titular reins, but there doesn't seem to be anything forthcoming. If you live outside the JREF bubble, there is dead silence out in the real world.

Is the man in the street even aware of the JREF's existence any more?

It just feels like the whole thing is winding down.

What say you?

Isn't the Bad Astronomer going to take over?

[Klimax]

Isn't the Bad Astronomer going to take over?

I think it happend already.

[Professor Yaffle]

Off topic posts on whether the challenge will be won in Randi's lifetime split to: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=143442