How would a premonition be best presented for consideration...

[Obbo]

Cape May, Mother's Day...Meteorological?

[Czarcasm]

Are you claiming that a meteor will land on Cape May on Mother's Day, or that a meteor will be visible from Cape May on Mother's Day, or that something will be visible in the sky somewhere near Cape May sometime around Mother's Day, or what?

[geni]

A premonition would best be presented as precicly as possible. Time, place and exactly what is going to happen. It would help if was not to far in the future either.

[uneasy]

"If I'd meant that, I'd have said it," said Humpty Dumpty.
Alice didn't want to begin another argument, so she said nothing.
- Lewis Carroll

[Obbo]

Re: Czarcasm

20' surge cause unpredetermined.

If fore-waened is fore-armed, do we hand out life-preservers? But if I'm off a couple days people wont carry them So I'd be crying wolf...

Public awareness? Designated high-spots?

[Obbo]

mothers day-

"The founder of the day is Anna Jarvis, of Philadelphia, who designated the second Sunday in May, or for schools the second Friday, as the time, and a white carnation as the badge."

[Obbo]

"A dazed woman is walking across a rubble-strewn marsh. She picks up a Chinese lacquer box, a high-heeled slipper, a copy of Lorna Doone, and a bag of cole slaw still sealed and fresh. ‘These were in my house before the storm,’ she says numbly. All that is left of her place now is a few jagged posts on a clean-swept beach. A New Jersey state trooper puts his arm gently around her shoulders and leads her back to his car."

So reported the Philadelphia Bulletin in March of 1962.

It wasn’t a hurricane that struck the Jersey shore, but two storms joining as one — the first from the west, the other from the south. The two pressure systems met off the coast of Georgia before moving slowly north becoming a northeastern storm. When the storms reached New Jersey they stalled, held in place by a Canadian cold front.

The storm raged for three full days.

To this day, the great "nor’easter of ’62" holds a place in history as one of the most powerful and damaging storms of the century.

The state of New Jersey sits prone — approximately equidistant between the North Pole and the equator — its southern counties bordered by the Delaware Bay and the Atlantic Ocean. And the City of Cape May and boroughs of West Cape May and Cape May Point lie at the very southern-most tip of the state.

Though southern New Jersey has never suffered a hurricane’s "direct hit," the storms of the past two centuries speak for themselves. Local history books record scores of tropical storms, nor’easters and hurricane winds pounding this tiny tip of New Jersey.

In 1821 — "Elijah Miller lived in the southern end of Dias Creek (just north of Cape May City). The elements were so threatening that he walked to the school house and asked for his children. The teacher replied, ‘Can’t you stay a little while for we all will be going soon?’ But Mr. M. replied, ‘No, I wish my children immediately and advise you to dismiss all the pupils at once and not wait until the regular closing hour.’ This advice was heeded. One of Mr. M.’s children started to take a short cut through the woods but as the limbs and tree tops were breaking off, fearing they might be killed thereby, he hustled them homeward by the main road as fast as their feet would carry them. Looking back as they went up the hill they saw great waves capped with foam where they had walked but a few minutes before."

Interestingly, this 180 year-old Cape May County Gazette report is relevant today. Like the school teacher, many underestimate the danger of coastal storms and are hesitant to leave. And there is always the reluctance to leave precious possessions behind.

Today, many seaside towns invoke mandatory evacuation when winds reach Category 2 — 96 to 110 miles per hour — especially for those with homes built directly on the beach front. In 1821, of course, they had no such regulations. And it wasn’t until 1870 that a federal weather service was established.

Major storms in 1893 and 94, 1903 and 04, 1933 and 34, as well as 1938, struck the Jersey coast. But none were quite as ferocious as the hurricane of 1944.

It became known as the "Great Atlantic Hurricane," a tropical storm noticed first near Puerto Rico. The storm was upgraded to a full-fledged hurricane as it churned toward Miami. The entire state of Florida was put on full hurricane alert but the storm skirted the coast aiming directly for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

On September 14, covering a 500-mile radius, the storm barely nicked the coast and passed by Cape Hatteras around 9 a.m. turning ever so slightly toward the northeast. Then it picked up speed. Barometric pressure dropped and winds increased to 100 miles per hour. By 3 p.m., the hurricane’s center loomed near Norfolk, Virginia.

At 5 p.m., the hurricane’s center was only fifty to seventy-five miles from the mouth of the Delaware Bay.

Weather alerts were posted from Delaware northward to New England. New Jersey was already feeling the effects from the storm. So quickly had the storm sped northward that Newark motorists and pedestrians were stranded as flood waters swelled over roads and sidewalks. Jersey City was flooded, too, and on the tiny island of precariously situated Cape May, force 10 winds whipped from ocean to bay. And the barometric pressure dropped to 28.83 inches — ominously low.


Long-time Cape May City resident and noted historian Sue Leaming recounted her memories of the Great Atlantic Storm of ’44 in the book, Great Storms of the Jersey Shore, written by Larry Savadove and Margaret Thomas Buchholz in 1993.

Thinking it "just another nor’easter," Leaming happily helped her mother ready a local hotel as a shelter after a telephone call from the United States Coast Guard requested aid for anticipated evacuees. The Columbia Hotel was located just three blocks from the ocean.

It was only when the wind intensified and the barometric pressure dropped even further — to 28.5 inches — that Sue Leaming became alarmed — particularly after a friend’s father told her should the mercury fall to 28.3, the entire town of Cape May would be "blown apart."

"I was upstairs and called down to tell mother that I could see lumber floating up Benton Avenue; the wind and rain were furious by then," Leaming wrote in a letter to her aunt that very night. "I went to the basement and as I opened the door, I heard an awful gushing."

"In fifteen minutes, the water was up to my knees and I heard my husband, Pic, on the front porch trying to get out the rowboat. The tide had come up so fast none of us could believe it."

"Mr. Steger, who owns Lovell Beach Concession, was at the beach trying to save his tents. He had put them over on the porches of the beachfront houses, and then all of a sudden this terrific tide swept in and there weren’t any porches left on the homes. His tents were all over town. At one point, I heard a thunderous crash which seemed to come from Mecray’s corner; we thought it must be the boardwalk crashing into the houses."

What Leaming heard was a 40-foot tidal wave crashing onto the boardwalk, and into Convention Hall and two amusement and fishing piers, hurling pilings and debris into beachfront homes and hotels. The entire two-mile boardwalk was destroyed in minutes. Beach Avenue was completely washed out and buried under thousands of tons of sand. Wreckage from the boardwalk was buried more than four-feet deep.

[Czarcasm]

Nice history lesson.
Now, what exactly are you predicting?
A 20' surge of what? Water? Electricity?

[Obbo]

Re: Czarcasm

Do you associate life-jackets with electricity?

[Zep]

The guy has been SMOKIN', baby!

[Chad Noles]

Obbo,notice the dates,places,and times listed in your various news storys.But none were quite as ferocious as the hurricane of 1944. On September 14, covering a 500-mile radius, the storm barely nicked the coast and passed by Cape Hatteras around 9 a.m. turning ever so slightly toward the northeast.

See,we have Sept.14 1944,Cape Hatteras,9 a.m.

This is the kind of information that separates the accurate predictions from meer guesses.It seems as if you think some "tidal wave" is going to occur at Cape May on Mother's Day (2004?).So far,we can only guess if this is what you mean.If it is,please say so.If not,please say so.A time frame is also a must,within 1 or 2 hours maximum,otherwise again it is just guessing.Make your prediction as accurate as possible if you care to have anyone consider it as possibly being a "vision" of the future.

[TheBoyPaj]

Why is such a tight time frame necessary? I suppose it depends on the frequency of such events in that location. If I were to predict that an asteroid will hit my car next February the 10th, would the hour also be required?

[Beleth]

Originally posted by TheBoyPaj
Why is such a tight time frame necessary? I suppose it depends on the frequency of such events in that location. If I were to predict that an asteroid will hit my car next February the 10th, would the hour also be required? Scientists can correctly predict astronomical occurrences (eclipses, occultations, etc.) down to the minute, and often down to the second. Why should psychics and prophets be held to a lesser standard?

[Chad Noles]

TheBoyPaj,in the case of what I suspect is a prediction of a tidal wave of some sort it needs to be shown that the occurance is unique from the normally occuring tides in that area.There are tide charts that can predict high and low tides in accordance with the Moon.The exactness of a time helps to identify the uniqueness of any anomaly.

[Czarcasm]

Originally posted by Obbo
Re: Czarcasm

Do you associate life-jackets with electricity?

Do you associate the word "meteorological" with water?

[Obbo]

I defer to the dictionary:

meteorology
\Me`te*or*ol"o*gy\, n. [Gr. ?; ? + ? discourse: cf. F. m['e]t['e]orologie. See Meteor.] The science which treats of the atmosphere and its phenomena, particularly of its variations of heat and moisture, of its winds, storms, etc.

----------------------

meteor

\Me"te*or\, n. [F. m['e]t['e]ore, Gr. ?, pl. ? things in the air, fr. ? high in air, raised off the ground; ? beyond + ?, ?, a suspension or hovering in the air, fr. ? to lift, raise up.] 1. Any phenomenon or appearance in the atmosphere, as clouds, rain, hail, snow, etc.

------------------------

I think 'Meteorology' is a broad enough catagorization to include anything from the appearence of Santa & his rheindeer to E.T or the Second Coming...

Yes I think Moisture definately is covered by the term, and is probably included to a large degree in what a coastel-dweller may describe as 'weather'.

[Czarcasm]

So basically, by using the word "meteorological" you can claim that anything having to do with any kind of weather on Mother's Day at Cape May fulfills your so-called "prediction"?

[Obbo]

Originally posted by Obbo
Re: Czarcasm

20' surge cause unpredetermined.

If fore-waened is fore-armed, do we hand out life-preservers?


(I think I'm getting the signal to ignore you if we go around again)

[Czarcasm]

Or you do the totally unexpected and tell us what exactly it is you are predicting.:rolleyes:

[Obbo]

There is precedent.

It's not out of the question.

It's even probable.

In fact...we're due for one.
---------------------------------

I think public awareness of the risks, and contingencies, would save many lives.

Incredulity (sp) may give way to concern and foresight.

[Czarcasm]

Let me make a prediction.
Obbo will never tell us what the hell he is talking about, but will still claim success when anything at all happens anywhere near Cape May sometime around Mother's Day.
This thread is a waste of time, but it does serve a purpose-I now know exactly how much attention I should pay to any future posts by Obbo.
None.

[Nucular]

Obbo, is this (http://obbo.blogspot.com/) you?

[Obbo]

No;
And my apologies to anyone who may construe defamation thru random circumstances

[davefoc]

Obbo said:Cape May, Mother's Day...Meteorological?

Was this a prediction?

Is there any particular kind of weather that Cape Maysians should be preparing for?

I just had a Cape May vision. Besides the naked women running on the beach in my vision, I also saw clear blue skies with a few white clouds drifting by. Was your vision the same?

[The Central Scrutinizer]

I sure hope the Rams win today! Then they will have home field advantage throughout the playoffs! (assuming they keep winning of course)

[Kopji]

Humm, I think personally... if I were going to do a premonition of something it should at least have an unusual aspect to it.

"A hurricane will hit Cape May around Mother's day this year" has a reasonable probability of happening whether or not I predicted it. Seems kind of a boring prediction.

A way to get at what I mean might be to determine what percentage of hurricanes hit the area in the past century. Say it was only 1 in 100. This would still be a lot higher natural occurrence than the statistic probability of supernatural premonitions being true. (This site would probably not even exist if even one in a hundred psychic predictions turned out to be true).

[Obbo]

Re: davefoc

"At JREF, we offer a one-million-dollar prize to anyone who can show, under proper observing conditions, evidence of any paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event."-

Is prescience considered to be within the categories of paranormal, supernatural, or occult power or event(s)?

I don't know if prediction can be since we predict the weather, and yet....maybe predicting weather IS a paranormal event!

[Kopji]

maybe predicting weather IS a paranormal event!

Humm, some places more-so than others. I've suspected for quite a while that the meteorologist dropouts get exiled to the backwoods of Arizona.

I'd be real interested in reading a study measuring weather forecasting accuracy, against simply predicting for tomorrow whatever the weather is today.

[Obbo]

How is Premonition defined: "forewarning".

I couldn't possibly know a twent-foot swell would inundate parts of Cape May on a certain date unless appraised of the fact by someone who knew- and no words were spoken to that effect, thus I presume my conclusion to be based on Telepathy.

I have a suspicion that the swell is due to a meteor ...but I don't know for sure.
But then if this information was delivered telepathicaly then it originated from someone who knows the trajectory of meteors thru space to an extrordinary degree...which suggests an off-world intellegence to me...but I don't know for sure.

I'd just as soon prefer this to be a fantasy, and only communicated my feelings in the hope that some loss of life could be avoided by those who take the necessary precautions of coastal-living seriously and may be able to advise children on the responsibility of being aware and of knowing what action to take in an emergency.

It's not as if it never happened...or will never happen again...But what's a responsible adult to do...Safety First...Public Awareness

An article in the news may help, but classroom instruction could make a difference.

The danger as I see it is from debris and lack of oxygen...if one could carry a small oxygen cylinder and remain anchored in a secure location untill the wash receded or calmed...But who will be in a secure location or have presence of mind to find one quickly, let alone carry an apparatus.

Perhaps a personal floatation device with built in respirator could be worn as clothing...and ride out the wave...I don't know...others may have better insights

[sophia8]

But which Mothers Day? Here in the UK, Mothers Day is on a different date every year, because it's something like the third Sunday before Easter (or something). Anyway, this year it's March 21st.

[Obbo]

Sunday may 9

If I'm not mistaken,
I think the water line recedes quite some distance before resurgence, and according to some accounts I have read people will venture out onto the flats exposed.
Therefore an indication of some minutes may be available with which to sound alarm.

Perhaps a tornado siren like used out west could provide enough warning for people to take whatever precaution they deem necessary

[Kopji]

Obbo
I'm a little curious about how this all works. Especially where you think your personal responsibility begins and ends.

Let's look at a couple scenarios. Say your 'premonition' is indeed some unexplainable message from space or whatever. The meteor (or whatever) is on its way and you are the responsible messenger doing the right thing.

I will also set aside an obvious question: "Why you?" If an alien intelligence were truly trying to contact us, why not contact a receptive person (open to such things) who could be more influential, like President Bush? But lets assume you are the chosen one.

The first scenario: We prepare for the worst on May 9th. Areas evacuated, businesses are closed, houses boarded up, shipping diverted, lives disrupted. A few unlucky people are killed or injured in the confusion to escape the disaster, but this is far less than the loss of life that would have resulted if we had not been proactive about the premonition.

The disaster strikes just as foretold. Lives are saved and our perception of reality must adjust to the new knowledge of intelligent life in space and/or psychic ability. (Again though, how smart are they, if they could not contact us by some more influential means?) Anyway, you are a hero, and now gain the mantle of authority that comes with someone who has a special knowledge denied to most of us.

The second scenario: We prepare for the worst on May 9th. Businesses are closed and disrupted, houses boarded up, shipping diverted. A few people are killed or injured in the confusion. But... nothing happens on May 9th. Where are you when people call for someone to take responsibility? Could the businesses be reimbursed or lost lives be restored? No, because you cannot really take responsibility for the premonition, 'sharing' it with us was a kind of glorious delusion. You only thought you were being 'responsible' by sharing your premonition, but in actually you were acting without taking any responsibility for the results of our belief in you at all.

Third Scenario:
We prepare for the worst on May 9th. Businesses are closed and disrupted, houses boarded up, shipping diverted. A few people are killed or injured in the confusion. But... the alien message has been misinterpreted, and the disaster actually strikes the place where the people who have evacuated to. (Bummer)

Why should we not treat 'premonitions' with disdain and contempt? Disasters are predicted almost every day, and do not come to pass. The world would be in a constant state of disruption and fear if each time someone predicted a disaster we "prepared" for, with no evidence to allow us to choose how to respond. (And yeah, this sounds a little like our 'terror alert' system). :D

Verifiable evidence is how we make decisions, weigh the options, and come to conclusions. We may still make mistakes, but without it we are certainly lost.

[Obbo]

~The first scenario: Again though, how smart are they, if they could not contact us by some more influential means?~

Good point

~ The second scenario: No, because you cannot really take responsibility for the premonition, 'sharing' it with us was a kind of glorious delusion. You only thought you were being 'responsible' by sharing your premonition, but in actually you were acting without taking any responsibility for the results of our belief in you at all. ~

Another good point

~Third Scenario: We prepare for the worst on May 9th. Businesses are closed and disrupted, houses boarded up, shipping diverted. A few people are killed or injured in the confusion. But... the alien message has been misinterpreted, and the disaster actually strikes the place where the people who have evacuated to. (Bummer)

Why should we not treat 'premonitions' with disdain and contempt? Disasters are predicted almost every day, and do not come to pass. The world would be in a constant state of disruption and fear if each time someone predicted a disaster we "prepared" for, with no evidence to allow us to choose how to respond.~

Another excellent point.

~Verifiable evidence is how we make decisions, weigh the options, and come to conclusions.~

I suppose the only verifiable evidence would be to track and plot the progress of a meteor or asteroid and have an idea of the whereabouts of impending impact...this certainly would give us more advance warning AND authority to base our decisions on...Heck, we can always blame Nasa if it misses.

[Kopji]

Hi Obbo,
Thanks for the reasonable responses.

[Obbo]

Maybe a buoy some distance from shore could record vertical shift and an adjacent buoy could measure speed and radio shore based weather services.

A few Buoys could cover the entire Eastern sea-board, and provide the time necessary to clear the beaches and activate live-cam news coverage.

[hgc]

Here's how I make my predictions to Randi: I draw a comic strip of myself having the vision, and then telling about it. The telling part consists of the words in "word balloons," like in a regular comic strip, but in this case, their coming out of my butt instead of my mouth. I call them fart balloons. They're like weather balloons, but not.

[Obbo]

I don't know if a vertical wave is noticable on satellite imagery but if so then that may be a more practical method of observation.

Now all we need is regular live imagery updates and a dedicated crew of observers

[CERDIP]

Why not just put up a webcam at the proposed site? Then we could all monitor it.

You could do this even if you don't formally enter the challenge. Buy a webcam, go to Cape May, knock on a few doors...

[Obbo]

Telepathy, precognition or whatever is an inexact science, like meteorology.

And there's always the possibility that I'm being decieved.

Therefore I can't do 'formal' entry, and have to leave any decisions concerning whether conditions were met or not up to the Judge .

Considering the magnitude...I hope it is deception...and if it isn't, that doesn't mean further 'communication' wont be...

...because deception exists.

[Obbo]

Deception is like *******...in that we learn to avoid it...unless we have an affinity for it :)

I certainly am guilty of deceptive practices and admit to feeling pleasure with success of artifice, so I guess I can't condemn the practise in others.

Life is due retribution I suppose...
and a learning experience.

[Obbo]

Re: 'Why not put up a webcam?'

LOL
That generates a cartoon scenario like the 'Far Side' in which Elmer sits wide-eyed watching tv as the news depicts immenent threat with images from Elmer's web-cam.

I like the one where Elmers wife says "Don't you think it's time to mow the lawn? What must the people downstairs think", and of course the grass is half-way up their window.

[Obbo]

How many Goths does it take to change a light-bulb?

None, They'd rather sit in the dark and cry.

LOL
:)

[Obbo]

Fact or Fiction...
It's All In the Mystery...

I heard the Real McCoy Firewalker
can lead others over the coals simply by holding their hand...

Instances like these give credence to what the skeptics call...

The Supernatural.

[Obbo]

That was my best Rod Serling/ Maury Povich