Zuma - the new Mugabe-in-waiting.

[The Atheist]

Hail President Zuma (http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3087478.ece)!

Five times divorced.

Acquitted from rape charges.

Long suspected of being corrupt (http://www.epigram.org.uk/view.php?id=2660).

Heavily tribalistic Zulu.

Believes a shower will protect against AIDS.

At least when Mugabe started, he seemed like a good guy. Zuma, from all appearances, is not, and he is another member of the now-impregnable ANC.

Many South Africans believe Zuma will spell the downfall of the country - are they right? I rather suspect they might be, as yet another African country embraces tribalism.

[dudalb]

Power Corrupts. The oldest story in the book.
Yeah, Zuma sounds like a piece of work.
I am a little surprised he is a favorite. To put it mildly, there is some lingering prejudice among other Black South Africans toward the Zulus. Shaka and Cetewayo and the days of The Crushing are well remembered.

[Tsukasa Buddha]

Jesus, that sucks for South Africa.

[The Atheist]

Power Corrupts. The oldest story in the book.
Yeah, Zuma sounds like a piece of work.
I am a little surprised he is a favorite.

Not favourite, a lay-down certainty.


Jesus, that sucks for South Africa.

And Mozambique, and Angola, and Namibia...

[lionking]

I was reading about him today. Look for a massive exodus of money from SA if he gains power.

[Eddie Dane]

From what I hear on BBC radio, this guy is bad news.

He seems despotic, irrational, clever and charismatic.
In short, a nightmare combination also found in Mugabe.

[The Atheist]

From what I hear on BBC radio, this guy is bad news.

He seems despotic, irrational, clever and charismatic.
In short, a nightmare combination also found in Mugabe.

Yeah, a real winner.

And with a much larger and far better-armed country.

[Eddie Dane]

Yeah, a real winner.

And with a much larger and far better-armed country.

With any luck he'll just be the African Berlusconi.
Corruption and inefficiency.

But the tribal thing makes him far more dangerous than that.

[Morrigan]

No fear, Jack Bauer will take care of him.
http://www.theofficialtonytodd.com/e107_images/newspost_images/24tt_.jpg

Oh wait, you didn't say Juma? :boxedin:

[Texas]

From what I hear on BBC radio, this guy is bad news.

He seems despotic, irrational, clever and charismatic.
In short, a nightmare combination also found in Mugabe.

Who is Mandela backing?

[Damien Evans]

Who is Mandela backing?

He's been dragged out in his wheelchair for a couple of Zuma rallies, but he hasn't officially endorsed him.

From what I've heard he's not really in a fit mental state to endorse anyone anymore anyway.

[The Atheist]

Good piece in the NYT today on the subject.

A couple of interesting points:

Less than half of people polled recently believed they were better off now than under Apartheid.

Zuma's poster is in the most appropriate place in the article.

Link (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/23/world/africa/23safrica.html?_r=1&hp)

[Travis]

So people are continuing to support the ANC purely because of it's history rather than what it wants to do now?

[Darat]

To a certain extent that is true - you have to remember you have generations of people eligible for voting who have only ever known the ANC to be the organisation that they (believed) supported and indeed fought for them.

[The Atheist]

So people are continuing to support the ANC purely because of it's history rather than what it wants to do now despite its lack of progress in the past decade?

I think that's nearer the mark. Fragmented opposition isn't helping.

[dudalb]

Yeah, a real winner.

And with a much larger and far better-armed country.


Shades of Shaka.

[Pardalis]

No fear, Jack Bauer will take care of him.
http://www.theofficialtonytodd.com/e107_images/newspost_images/24tt_.jpg

Oh wait, you didn't say Juma? :boxedin:

Isn't that Candyman?

[hgc]

Zuma -- I thought it was going to be an alcoholic soda pop or something.

[dudalb]

Another African Leader Zuma might remind us all of when he takes power:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_1884049ef6fc6ca9ef.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=16110)

[Morrigan]

Isn't that Candyman?

Possibly, haven't seen the movie. He always plays Scary Black Guys though.

[Erigena]

They're voting the party instead of the individual. That isn't much different from any other country where elections are the determining factor for a new political official. In this case, it's even more detrimental because there are fewer checks and balances in the system to provide safeguards and the voters have never known it to be any better than what it has been since the apartheid. As Darat mentioned, the people associate their freedom with the ANC.

[Eddie Dane]

Another African Leader Zuma might remind us all of when he takes power:

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/thum_1884049ef6fc6ca9ef.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=16110)

Is that Idi Amin?

I suspect that Zuma is nowhere nearly as stupid as Amin.

Not that that's a guaranty for good government. Mugabe reportedly is highly intelligent.

Are you seriously suggesting that Zuma might go all dictatorial, racist an genocidal?

I have little faith in the man's moral standards. And he will probably be a danger to the democracy in SA if he plays the tribe card.

But comparing him to Amin at this stage is almost a godwin.

[geni]

Zuma has not exactly been pro Mugabe and living next to zimbarwe will make it pretty clear to him that that acting like Mugabe is not likely to have a good outcome.

Zuma may not be very successful but I can't see him going for Mugabe style policies or opression. He doesn't have as much to gain from it.

Long term if Zuma doesn't cause to many problems his election may be a net posertive if it results in a credible oposition forming.

[The Atheist]

Is that Idi Amin?

I suspect that Zuma is nowhere nearly as stupid as Amin.

Stupid has varying degrees, and Amin was stupid enough to sieze absolute power in an African country, which isn't as dumb as you might expect.

Not that that's a guaranty for good government. Mugabe reportedly is highly intelligent.

Wiki says:

Originally graduating with a Bachelor of Arts degree from the University of Fort Hare in 1951, Mugabe subsequently earned six further degrees through distance learning including a Bachelor of Administration and Bachelor of Education from the University of South Africa and a Bachelor of Science, Bachelor of Laws, Master of Science, and Master of Laws, all from the University of London

I'd agree with him being pretty clever.

Are you seriously suggesting that Zuma might go all dictatorial, racist an genocidal?

Nutcase tribalist in complete power? You wouldn't say it's impossible. I wouldn't anyway. How likely? Who knows.

Zuma has not exactly been pro Mugabe and living next to zimbarwe will make it pretty clear to him that that acting like Mugabe is not likely to have a good outcome.

Why?

Living next to Mozambique & Namibia, and being just down the jungle from Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi didn't stop Mugabe from turning Zimbabwe into a hell-hole.

Zuma may not be very successful but I can't see him going for Mugabe style policies or opression. He doesn't have as much to gain from it.

What gians did Mugabe make by instituting current policies?

Long term if Zuma doesn't cause to many problems his election may be a net posertive if it results in a credible oposition forming.

We can hope, but it's never worked out too well in Africa to date.

[Darth Rotor]

We can hope, but it's never worked out too well in Africa to date.
You seem to have your continents mixed up. It's them Americans who run presidential campaigns on Hope as a method, or as a hometown. :p

It's a running gag, since 1992. Still running, and I'm still gagging.

(Tidbit about WJ Clinton: from Hope, Arkansas, and now and again called "the man from Hope" in political rhetoric.)

DR

[The Atheist]

You seem to have your continents mixed up. It's them Americans who run presidential campaigns on Hope as a method, or as a hometown. :p

It's a running gag, since 1992. Still running, and I'm still gagging.

(Tidbit about WJ Clinton: from Hope, Arkansas, and now and again called "the man from Hope" in political rhetoric.)

DR

Haha!

I blame Bob.

[Darth Rotor]

I blame Bob.
Understandable, given he was a Pom.

DR

[DarthFishy]

Well at least currently it appears as if the ANC (and thus Zuma) are not getting thier 2/3rds majority in the election. So that's at least a bit of good news.

It is also important to note that the ANC itself has splintered, essentially into pro-Zuma and anti-Zuma factions, with the anti-Zuma faction have formed the new political party The Congress of the People. Say what you want about Zuma but he definitely is a polarising character.

What is interesting for me is the opinions various white business people have about Zuma, in that they feel that he actually creates a positive image for the country. Not necessarily to the Western World, but to other African nations and the UN.

I don't like Zuma personally and I feel that he's not the best choice for the country as president (by a long shot). Yet, I don't think he will be the new Mugabe, and I hold out hope for some positives to come out of his leadership.

ETA: Another thing I forgot to mention is that there is a general feeling amongst Afrikaners (especially the older generations), that they prefer the Zulus to the other tribes in South Africa. It is also interesting to note that Zuma has campaigned significantly (for an ANC leader) amongst the poor white community in SA.

[lionking]

Very good points DarthFishy, and I really hope you are right.

[Eddie Dane]

Well at least currently it appears as if the ANC (and thus Zuma) are not getting thier 2/3rds majority in the election. So that's at least a bit of good news.

It is also important to note that the ANC itself has splintered, essentially into pro-Zuma and anti-Zuma factions, with the anti-Zuma faction have formed the new political party The Congress of the People. Say what you want about Zuma but he definitely is a polarising character.

What is interesting for me is the opinions various white business people have about Zuma, in that they feel that he actually creates a positive image for the country. Not necessarily to the Western World, but to other African nations and the UN.

I don't like Zuma personally and I feel that he's not the best choice for the country as president (by a long shot). Yet, I don't think he will be the new Mugabe, and I hold out hope for some positives to come out of his leadership.

ETA: Another thing I forgot to mention is that there is a general feeling amongst Afrikaners (especially the older generations), that they prefer the Zulus to the other tribes in South Africa. It is also interesting to note that Zuma has campaigned significantly (for an ANC leader) amongst the poor white community in SA.

That last point is encouraging. If he's not playing out whites and blacks, It's improbable that he'll play tribe politics.

Of course, all he has to do to cause a rift is appoint a disproportionate number of Zulu's to important decisions.

Darthfishy, a friend of mine is thinking buying a house in SA.
Do you think things are looking up, or should he keep his powder dry for a few years to see how the political/economic situation pas out?

[Euromutt]

It's worth noting that the South African judiciary forms a check on Zuma that doesn't exist for Mugabe. The South African courts have a long record of integrity, even under Apartheid.

[Matthew Best]

I read yesterday that nobody seems to know how many wives Zuma has, or how many children. That must be a first for a world leader.

[Eddie Dane]

I read yesterday that nobody seems to know how many wives Zuma has, or how many children. That must be a first for a world leader.

Genghis Kahn?

[tomwaits]

That must be a first for a world leader.


Not really.

[Euromutt]

I read yesterday that nobody seems to know how many wives Zuma has, or how many children. That must be a first for a world leader.François Mitterand comes to mind as a counter-example.

[geni]

Living next to Mozambique & Namibia, and being just down the jungle from Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi didn't stop Mugabe from turning Zimbabwe into a hell-hole.

Different situations.


What gians did Mugabe make by instituting current policies?


Stayed in power and had some brand new land owners who owed him favors.

[Puppycow]

Zuma, Reversing Course, Expands HIV Treatment (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125966963354071133.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLENextto WhatsNewsThird)

South African President Jacob Zuma pledged to expand treatment to all HIV-positive babies and other at-risk individuals, the latest big step in his effort to reverse his predecessor's disastrous policies on HIV/AIDS.

Announcing the measures Tuesday -- World AIDS Day -- before a cheering crowd in the capital, Mr. Zuma also pledged to take an HIV test, an important gesture in a culture where the stigma of HIV/AIDS remains high. Mr. Zuma has been wildly popular with young South Africans, who voted for him in force in elections in April.

[Puppycow]

There seems to be an absence of horror stories about president Zuma so far, but I guess it's still early.

[Skeptic]

Jesus, that sucks for South Africa.

South Africa, it was said, would go the way of Zimbabwe. Whites will leave, Blacks will kill each other. This was supposed to happen when Apartheid ended. It didn't. Mandela, with true greatness, went for forgiveness and reconciliation, not revenge. But it doesn't mean it CANNOT happen if someone like Mugabe will come to the fore.

I will give Zuma the benefit of the doubt. A narcissist, five times divorced? Welcome to the world of politicians. Tribalistic in South Africa? You don't say. The question is, what will he do with this. Does he ask for unity or is he there to bolster his tribe at all costs? It is still not seen one way or another.

But reversing course on AIDS is a very big step. Not only for the fact itself, but because it shows he does not consider himself infallible and is willing to admit mistakes.

[DarthFishy]

Even though I didn't vote for Zuma (yeah we have one of them democracies thingies over here as well), he's doing really well as President so far. Gotten tough(er) on crime, reversed our disastrous AIDS policy, appointed at least one white Afrikaner male from an opposition party to a cabinet post, tried to reach across the Aisle and work together with opposition parties.

All-in-all I'm feeling pretty confident about the way South Africa is going at the moment :)

[Eddie Dane]

That's good to hear.
Let's hope he keeps it up.

SA has a lot of potential, it would be a shame to squander it.

[Worm]

There does seem to be a lot more confidence in Zuma.

However, from recent experience, I would say he has a long way to go to win back respect for the government in general for a large proportion of the SA population. Not necessarily the National government even - the local government is often seen as a bit of a joke to be honest.