Swine Flu outbreak

[Oliver]

Since it's all over the news that a mutation of the Swine Flu virus caused 60 human deaths so far ... :

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ie=UTF-8&q=swine%20flu&sa=N&tab=wn&um=1

... Is anyone concerned about this yet?

[HarryKeogh]

I'm very concerned.

I graduated from this high school (http://wcbstv.com/health/swine.flu.nyc.2.994071.html) in 1989.

I blame "bacon cheeseburger Wednesday".

[Oliver]

Well, I blame mass production under "inhuman" circumstances for these types of threats. Meat should cost twice as much and in return, the Government should pass laws making sure that the animals grow up in a "happy&healthy environment" in return.

[shadron]

I'm ever so happy for you. Good luck, and watch out for that carrot with the pickaxe behind you..

[Oliver]

I'm ever so happy for you. Good luck, and watch out for that carrot with the pickaxe behind you..


Well, got a better explanation?

[shadron]

Well, got a better explanation?

So, I presume your explanation is that the flu comes from animals who are not sufficiently pampered. While this may be true (it's arguable, to say the least), enacting laws that you recommend isn't going to eliminate the problem, which is international in scope, without superhuman efforts, and will have repercussions in terms of protein starvation that you don't address.

The virus theory of disease works for me, and therefore I recommend anti-virals and vaccines. On the public health front, appropriate quarantines and closure of non-vital public interactions may be called for.

[Oliver]

So, I presume your explanation is that the flu comes from animals who are not sufficiently pampered. While this may be true (it's arguable, to say the least), enacting laws that you recommend isn't going to eliminate the problem, which is international in scope, without superhuman efforts, and will have repercussions in terms of protein starvation that you don't address.

The virus theory of disease works for me, and therefore I recommend anti-virals and vaccines. On the public health front, appropriate quarantines and closure of non-vital public interactions may be called for.


Anti-virals and **** like that cause another kind of problem such as Feminization (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminization_%28biology%29), so letting a bunch of commercially thinking nutjobs decide about solutions isn't either good for the economy nor for the environment. And transporting animals all over the world isn't helpful either to prevent any biological threats to humans.

I'm all for regional breeding and consume without chemical/medical treatment, so the consument does know where their meet comes from. You, on the other hand, seem to prefer medication and chemicals as a solution, which strikes me as quite stupid and self-destructive, to be honest with you.

[DC]

So, I presume your explanation is that the flu comes from animals who are not sufficiently pampered. While this may be true (it's arguable, to say the least), enacting laws that you recommend isn't going to eliminate the problem, which is international in scope, without superhuman efforts, and will have repercussions in terms of protein starvation that you don't address.

The virus theory of disease works for me, and therefore I recommend anti-virals and vaccines. On the public health front, appropriate quarantines and closure of non-vital public interactions may be called for.

Fighting symptoms instead of fighting the source of the problem?

[Oliver]

Fighting symptoms instead of fighting the source of the problem?


Yep, that's the capitalist approach to problems. **** the consument, let's throw a bunch of probably dangerous chemicals/hormones/medications at the problem.

[Alt+F4]

... Is anyone concerned about this yet?

Wasn't half the world supposed to be killed by the Avian Flu by now?

[Gangularis]

This is whipping them into a frenzy on Prison Planet Forums (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=101486.0)

[shadron]

Anti-virals and **** like that cause another kind of problem such as Feminization (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminization_%28biology%29), so letting a bunch of commercially thinking nutjobs decide about solutions isn't either good for the economy nor for the environment. And transporting animals all over the world isn't helpful either to prevent any biological threats to humans.

I'm all for regional breeding and consume without chemical/medical treatment, so the consument does know where their meet comes from.

You got any real proof for any of this? Feminization, if it is a provably real problem for an anti-viral, is more a problem than death? All I see here is unsubstantiated rhetoric and inuendo. That last sentence, BTW, is nonsense, even after I correct the mispelling and make vast assumpions about what "consument" might be.

Transporting animals is not the problem. There is a theory that flu viruses are "bred" in fowl populations in China (for one), but their spread thereafter is through human transportation; China doesn't expor live or dead fowl, as far as I know. You'll need to demonstrate how animal movement is part of the basic problem, not just peripheral to it.

You, on the other hand, seem to prefer medication and chemicals as a solution, which strikes me as quite stupid and self-destructive, to be honest with you.

Ummmmm. I prefer you not make assumptions on my behalf. I prefer what works, and vaccination and anti-virals have been shown to work. Are they optimal? No, perhaps not; almost certainly not yet. While I do see a possible theoretical basis for your solutions, I don't see any hard proof that they are actual concerns. But then I'm not a biologist, and perhaps you have them, so please enlighten me. Stupid and self-destructive? You haven't any basis for saying that that you have demonstrated.

Show me how your solution is possible politically. Do you intend that the UN ban animal transport? Had any luck with getting Germany or the EU to do so? Lots of luck, as I said before.

[shadron]

Yep, that's the capitalist approach to problems. **** the consument, let's throw a bunch of probably dangerous chemicals/hormones/medications at the problem.

Since you insist on using that word, I went out and looked it up. All the referents are Dutch or German. Perhaps you need a new dictionary.

Sorry about the capitalism. But if it works, it works. Tell us how your solution is better in real, concrete, number of cases statistics that you can substantiate, and I'll listen to you as well. My goal here is to alleviate suffering from flu in the next year, not thirty years from now, but that is an important goal as well, just not as immediate.

[Pardalis]

Yep, that's the capitalist approach to problems. **** the consument, let's throw a bunch of probably dangerous chemicals/hormones/medications at the problem.

Here we go, any subject matter is good to have a go at America isn't it?

Your anti-Americanism is pathological.

[Pardalis]

Fighting symptoms instead of fighting the source of the problem?

And what would be the source of this problem, doctor?

[shadron]

Fighting symptoms instead of fighting the source of the problem?

Anti-virals are not palliatives; they deny or at least delay the growth of viruses in a host by inhibiting metabolic pathways that viruses habitually use. Vaccines totally deny viral infections by enabling the immune system to kill infected cells at the outset. Your implied allegation that either of these methods is "fighting symptoms" is incorrect. If I want to treat the symptoms I use analgesics, perhaps. Try again.

[plumjam]

... Is anyone concerned about this yet?

Yes. The Mexicans are already pig sick of it.
:boxedin:

[BonkingBear]

You Swine!

[The Atheist]

... Is anyone concerned about this yet?

From your link:

World Health Organization planned to consider raising the world pandemic flu alert to 4 from 3

When it is upgraded to 3, I'll probably get interested.

Well, I blame mass production under "inhuman" circumstances for these types of threats. Meat should cost twice as much and in return, the Government should pass laws making sure that the animals grow up in a "happy&healthy environment" in return.

Why not UFOs?

Thinking that animals' happiness has got anything to do with anything is quite bizarre. I take it you're a vegan?

Fighting symptoms instead of fighting the source of the problem?

As already asked, what is the problem then? There's probably a Nobel for Medicine available if you crack the secret of why viruses exist and how to stop them.

This is whipping them into a frenzy on Prison Planet Forums (http://forum.prisonplanet.com/index.php?topic=101486.0)

Shouldn't that be in a "NSFA" tag? (A=anywhere)

Yes. The Mexicans are already pig sick of it.
:boxedin:

Mate, you've had some good examples of witty comebacks.

That ain't one of them.

[alfaniner]

CNN has been having a field day with it today. After all, there is a potential for thousands of people to get sick and die! Be afraid!!!

[Oliver]

Here we go, any subject matter is good to have a go at America isn't it?

Your anti-Americanism is pathological.


Are you stupid? The new strain originated in Mexico.
Anyway, the World Health Organisation just released a warnig stating that it's "a public health emergency of international concern." :

CNN: WHO warns swine flu 'public health emergency' (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html)

A potentially deadly new strain of the swine flu virus cropped up in more places in the United States and Mexico on Saturday, in what the World Health Organization called "a public health emergency of international concern." full story (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html)

[Oliver]

Latest news:

(http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html)New Zealand students show signs of swine flu (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html)

Twenty-two students and three teachers in New Zealand, who returned from a three-week-long language trip to Mexico, may have been infected with the swine flu virus, officials said Sunday. The suspected infections in New Zealand follow reports that a deadly new strain of the virus recently cropped up in more places in the United States and Mexico. full story (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html)

[DC]

Here we go, any subject matter is good to have a go at America isn't it?

Your anti-Americanism is pathological.

:confused:

he didnt have a go at America nor the USA. Maybe you should read his posts again :rolleyes:

[DC]

And what would be the source of this problem, doctor?

thats a good question.

[Safe-Keeper]

Yep, that's the capitalist approach to problems. **** the consument, let's throw a bunch of probably dangerous chemicals/hormones/medications at the problem. As another forumite ingeniously replied to this kind of attitude -

...you do know that water is a non-organic chemical, right?

[Doubt]

Well, I blame mass production under "inhuman" circumstances for these types of threats. Meat should cost twice as much and in return, the Government should pass laws making sure that the animals grow up in a "happy&healthy environment" in return.

You need to start looking into how viruses make the jump from one species to another. And take some science classes.

What you want would increase the threat, not decrease it.

[Nogbad]

If it takes off and comes this way I am getting vaccinated - screw the politics :)

[skepticdoc]

Re-post from the "San Diego" thread:

How can we prevent hysterical reactions?

Is the Media helping Health policies in the face of an early pandemic?

Has "Evolutionary Theory" helped in any way?

I have accepted uncertainty, we can be prepared to a certain degree, but we cannot cover all the possibilities. I doubt any Scientist/Epidemiologist ever predicted that the "next pandemic" started in Mexico. Not too long ago, everybody was worried about China, East Asia as probable incubators of the "next" pandemic flu...

Just to reiterate my position from other posts in this Forum and other places:
Evolution happened and will continue to do so.
It is a random process whose details cannot be predicted.
Evolution cannot help Medicine, it provides an accurate explanation for "hindsight" analysis.
We are dependent on a heuristic process to fight communicable diseases, if we are lucky, we can have sentinel sites that can identify current infections, microbiologists and pharmaceutical engineers can produce vaccines or antibiotics to treat known infections.

On a tangential note, shouldn't we be concerned at the amount of antibiotics that are used in livestock production, unrelated to infection? (some quote 70% of the antibiotic production goes to Agricultural use, not used to treat infections)

[Dymanic]

When it is upgraded to 3, I'll probably get interested.The WHO has "declared a public health emergency" as a sort of wimpy compromise to raising the pandemic alert level from 3 to 4 -- even though their own definition for level 4 has already been met:
"verified human-to-human transmission of an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus able to cause community-level outbreaks."
They seem to want to reserve the right to fiddle with the definitional boundaries on the fly, in the teeth of an epidemiological event.

International experts will convene on Tuesday to advise the WHO on whether to raise the current pandemic alert level. It may be that since that decision process is apparently so agonizing for them, they want to avoid having to go through it again. By Tuesday or Wednesday, they may be able to go straight to level 5.

[Dymanic]

If it takes off and comes this way I am getting vaccinated - screw the politics :)
There won't be an effective vaccine against this virus for about six months. Antivirals are the best bet.

[Alt+F4]

Now it's in a high school in New York City. I suspect someone brought to back from Spring Break in Mexico.

In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control confirmed that eight students of a high school in Queens had been infected with swine flu, the first confirmed cases in New York City...

Linky:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/27/world/27flu.html?_r=1&hp

[alfaniner]

Well, since the White House just held a press briefing, it may be something to be concerned about. I didn't hear the whole thing, but I kept waiting for some reporter to express a concern about inoculations causing autism. I'd love to see the livid response from the real doctors up there.

[dudalb]

Add Medical science to the long list of things that Oliver knows nothing about, but tries to use as a club to beat his favorite whipping boys,the US and Capitalism.

[Thunder]

thats a good question.

the Jews? the CIA? FEMA?

Larry Silverstein?

[TjW]

You got any real proof for any of this? Feminization, if it is a provably real problem for an anti-viral, is more a problem than death?

My god, man! Look at his user name. Look at his avatar! How much more evidence do you need?

[The Atheist]

Latest news:

[URL="http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/26/swine.flu/index.html"]

Yep, they do think a dozen or so kids here have it, but at this stage, it's speculation. They have A-type influenza, which is common enough and all were at the recovering stage - none has been very ill at all.

The WHO has "declared a public health emergency" as a sort of wimpy compromise to raising the pandemic alert level from 3 to 4 --

You're back to front, level 3 - which was instituted today, is a level higher than 4.

__________________________________________________ ____________


Ok, Oliver, I said I'd get interested at level 3, and with the upgrade, I'm now officially interested.

First things first:

The death rate appears to be nothing special at the moment, thousands of people die annually from influenza.

If the NZ kids have had it, it appears to be no worse than any normal A-type influenza.

Those most vulnerable to influenza, babies and the elderly, seem to be less-affected by it - presumably since most +40s have had either Russian or one of the other H1N1 influenza types.

It apparently responds well to Tamiflu.

Conclusion: No panic, business as usual, some people will get the flu.

__________________________________________________ _________


Additional conclusion: Clearly another NWO tactic.

Just as the world is trying to shake off a bout of stock-market flu, a real flu epidemic comes along to further limit growth. Imagine how much Mexico's GDP is already down with the measures taken so far. Clearly, Mexico was chosen to enforce the Amero with the US public, while the global pandemic will enable anti-gathering laws to be enacted.

Is it any coincidence that Tamiflu works on this virus?

I think not.

[DC]

the Jews? the CIA? FEMA?

Larry Silverstein?

:confused: you belive its human created???

[Soapy Sam]

I'm going to panic now.

Sorry- I'm going to bed now.

I hope you are all still alive in the morning.

[The Atheist]

Ah, silly, silly me.

I've just been to Prison Planet to find the truth, and it's so obvious that I apologise for my previous attempt at explaining it.

The strain was created by Roche and this is just a test for the real one due in a few years' time. They're passing the flu on through the vaccine.

Oh, the joys of hindsight.

[Almo]

The current thought is that the 1918 flu epidemic orginated in swine in Kansas. I don't think they were into the kind of massive battery farming being blamed here at that time.

[shadron]

My god, man! Look at his user name. Look at his avatar! How much more evidence do you need?

Touché. Can't srgue with your logic!

[gumboot]

This flu has an even lower kill rate than the "world destroying" SARS virus - 1,000 cases in Mexico and only 20 confirmed deaths.

Of the students in New Zealand, only a handful have flu symptoms and none are even remotely serious. USCDC reports that Tamiflu does the trick on this particular bug.

[Pardalis]

:confused:

he didnt have a go at America nor the USA. Maybe you should read his posts again :rolleyes:

So please tell me what in the name of jumping Jehosaphat does capitalism have anything to do with this virus?

thats a good question.

So you don't know what you are talking about. Good.

[Skeptic Ginger]

The current thought is that the 1918 flu epidemic orginated in swine in Kansas. I don't think they were into the kind of massive battery farming being blamed here at that time.Sorry, this is not current thought, and hasn't been for many years. The 1918 virus has been recovered from stored tissue. It's genetic makeup suggests direct mutation from an avian virus without passing through pig hosts as was initially hypothesized.

Brief history and terminology of swine flu
(http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?p=2400:1001:8716093219666652::NO::F2400_P1001_BA CK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1000,77207)In the first place, the H1N1 virus is being called "swine flu" because of the outbreak of a different, 1918 origin virus that caused significant mortality in both swine and human populations and was known as the Spanish flu. The virus probably has a wild bird origin but it definitive origin remains unknown (see Taubenberg reference below).

The subsequent history of the swine influenza virus is nicely summarized: "Influenza as a disease of pigs was 1st recognized during the Spanish influenza pandemic of 1918*1919. Veterinarian J S Koen was the 1st to describe the illness, observing frequent outbreaks of influenza in families followed immediately by illness in their swine herds, and vice versa [1]. Influenza virus was 1st isolated from pigs in 1930 by Shope and Lewis [2], with the virus isolated from humans several years later [3]. The 1st isolation of a swine influenza virus from a human occurred in 1974 [4], confirming speculation that swine-origin influenza viruses could infect humans." See Myers below.


References
----------
1. Taubenberger JK, Morens DM. 1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics. Emerg Infect Dis; 2006 Jan (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0979.htm)
2. Myers KP, Olsen CW, Gray GC. Cases of swine influenza in humans: a review of the literature. Clin Infect Dis 2007; 44: 1084*8 doi: 10.1086/512813.

From the Taubenberger link above:The 1918 influenza pandemic had another unique feature, the simultaneous (or nearly simultaneous) infection of humans and swine. The virus of the 1918 pandemic likely expressed an antigenically novel subtype to which most humans and swine were immunologically naive in 1918 (12,20). Recently published sequence and phylogenetic analyses suggest that the genes encoding the HA and neuraminidase (NA) surface proteins of the 1918 virus were derived from an avianlike influenza virus shortly before the start of the pandemic and that the precursor virus had not circulated widely in humans or swine in the few decades before (12,15,24). More recent analyses of the other gene segments of the virus also support this conclusion.

[Undesired Walrus]

I don't know enough about this case to state whether it will lead to a major outbreak or not (And if SARS or Bird Flu was anything to go by, this is likely to be another case of press paranoia), but it's not all that unlikely a case in the near future may lead to more deaths than in 1918 (40% of the world's population infected!).

Future Alien civilisations may look back on us in sheer bafflement at our inability to put our eggs in at least two baskets (A moon base, for example).

[Dymanic]

You're back to front, level 3 - which was instituted today, is a level higher than 4.No. The WHO has not made any change to the alert level today. Where in the world did you get that? Did you just make it up? They've been at phase 3 since avian influenza first surfaced in the human population in 1997.

And no, level 3 is not higher than level 4. I think you may be confusing the WHO's Pandemic Alert Phase with the U..S Armed Forces Defense Readiness Condition (DEFCON) which does assign the highest alert level to the lowest number.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

[Skeptic Ginger]

So please tell me what in the name of jumping Jehosaphat does capitalism have anything to do with this virus?....While the origin is as of yet unknown, it is equally likely to be the result of human animal interface in a backyard pig or poultry operation or a large commercial pig or poultry operation that is sloppy about the polluting runoff of the animals' waste products.

Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events (http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/biosurveillance/2009/04/swine-flu-in-mexico-timeline-of-events.html)Veratect reported local health officials declared a health alert due to a respiratory disease outbreak in La Gloria, Perote Municipality, Veracruz State, Mexico. Sources characterized the event as a "strange" outbreak of acute respiratory infection, which led to bronchial pneumonia in some pediatric cases. According to a local resident, symptoms included fever, severe cough, and large amounts of phlegm. Health officials recorded 400 cases that sought medical treatment in the last week in La Gloria, which has a population of 3,000; officials indicated that 60% of the town’s population (approximately 1,800 cases) has been affected. No precise timeframe was provided, but sources reported that a local official had been seeking health assistance for the town since February.

Residents claimed that three pediatric cases, all under two years of age, died from the outbreak. However, health officials stated that there was no direct link between the pediatric deaths and the outbreak; they stated the three fatal cases were "isolated" and "not related" to each other.

Residents believed the outbreak had been caused by contamination from pig breeding farms located in the area. They believed that the farms, operated by Granjas Carroll, polluted the atmosphere and local water bodies, which in turn led to the disease outbreak. According to residents, the company denied responsibility for the outbreak and attributed the cases to "flu." However, a municipal health official stated that preliminary investigations indicated that the disease vector was a type of fly that reproduces in pig waste and that the outbreak was linked to the pig farms. It was unclear whether health officials had identified a suspected pathogen responsible for this outbreak.

The public health and other more reasoned information sources on this outbreak are reluctant to mention this evidence because they know the public jumps too readily to false conclusions. No sense stirring the pot when the average person is going to jump to a conclusion the evidence really doesn't yet support. But I have no qualms sharing the evidence of a potential connection since I know the CTers are going to see the information on the Net whether I post it or not.

The fact of the matter is, currently, the virus contains evidence of potential initial sources that aren't even swine. It's waaaay too early to say where it originated.

[gumboot]

I don't know enough about this case to state whether it will lead to a major outbreak or not (And if SARS or Bird Flu was anything to go by, this is likely to be another case of press paranoia), but it's not all that unlikely a case in the near future may lead to more deaths than in 1918 (40% of the world's population infected!).


That's very, very unlikely. The main reason the Spanish Flu was so severe was because of WWI, a situation which is unlikely to arise again any time soon. This was exacerbated by very poor quarantine methods which actually aided in the spread of the virus.

[plumjam]

Just curious. If you die of Swine Flu do you end up in Hog Heaven?

And has anyone seen Piggy lately?
Come to think of it, I think I'll put him on ignore until they've developed a vaccine.

[Sefarst]

SARS, Bird Flu, Mad Cow, now Swine Flu? Who keeps coming up with these diseases? Can someone tell me if these all just get hyped up or if they are serious threats that, thanks to all the overkill fuss people make, never turn into anything serious?

[Skeptic Ginger]

...And has anyone seen Piggy lately?
Come to think of it, I think I'll put him on ignore until they've developed a vaccine.I love your humor, plum.

[Undesired Walrus]

That's very, very unlikely. The main reason the Spanish Flu was so severe was because of WWI, a situation which is unlikely to arise again any time soon. This was exacerbated by very poor quarantine methods which actually aided in the spread of the virus.

Aren't we in unexplored territory with the massive increase in plane travel over the last century though? Those things are the new mosquitoes.

[Skeptic Ginger]

SARS, Bird Flu, Mad Cow, now Swine Flu? Who keeps coming up with these diseases? Can someone tell me if these all just get hyped up or if they are serious threats that, thanks to all the overkill fuss people make, never turn into anything serious?
At this point there is the potential for a bad flu pandemic but the rest is total hype.

Then again, there is always the potential for a bad flu pandemic.

Mind you, flu should be taken much more seriously than it generally is.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Aren't we in unexplored territory with the massive increase in plane travel over the last century though? Those things are the new mosquitoes.Hypothetically, in this particular case, it could be a benefit or a detriment.

If the initial pandemic wave is mild and the strain becomes more deadly later, the fact it spread so fast means lots of people will have developed immunity when infected by the milder version.

OTOH, were this to turn out to be a deadlier strain than usual (remember, flu kills hundreds of thousands every single year*), then the fact it took a month and a half to become seeded in countries all over the globe could mean so many people sick at the same time that the health care infrastructure will be overrun.


*US annual flu deaths are estimated to be 20-40,000 so I'm extrapolating from that.

[Checkmite]

I don't know enough about this case to state whether it will lead to a major outbreak or not (And if SARS or Bird Flu was anything to go by, this is likely to be another case of press paranoia), but it's not all that unlikely a case in the near future may lead to more deaths than in 1918 (40% of the world's population infected!).

Perhaps it was the reaction by the public to the "press paranoia" - i.e, more diligence in health precautions and so forth - that prevented those things from becoming worse than they were.

So, I was happy to learn that Ohio's first case of swine flu is in my town.

On the other hand, I'm not worried. I'd completely finished one of the recalled jars of Peter Pan when that recall was announced a couple years ago, and I didn't die.

[gumboot]

Aren't we in unexplored territory with the massive increase in plane travel over the last century though? Those things are the new mosquitoes.

Not really, during WWI you had a massive population, particularly susceptible to infection, located close together in unhygienic conditions, for an extended period. This gave the virus the opportunity to mutate rapidly and spread.

When the war ended this massive population then simultaneously dispersed to every corner of the globe, and were naturally particularly warmly greeted back in their home cities and towns and villages.

It was pretty much the most perfect incubation and dispersion method we could have possibly come up with. We made this worse by utilising flawed quarantine methods - for example it was common to put all sick people together in a single space so that ill people with other infections were then exposed to the flu and died in large numbers.

Even then, most people didn't die of the virus - the overwhelming majority of deaths were actually a result of secondary bacterial infections which can be prevented these days with antibiotics.

In contrast while a large number of people travel internationally every year, it's still less that the total troop numbers in WWI, and they tend to be healthier (most people don't travel if sick), better medicated (most air travelers are wealthier with good diets), and in hygienic conditions (air filter systems on airliners kill influenza). They also tend to remain in a given location for only a brief time, reducing the risk of exposure, and they're not simultaneously in the same place at once.

Certainly widespread air travel makes it easier for a virus to spread, but it still doesn't even come close to the unique circumstances at the close of WWI.

[gumboot]

Mind you, flu should be taken much more seriously than it generally is.


I think the main reason it isn't taken seriously is because so many people refer to the common cold as a "flu". I've had numerous arguments with people who were convinced they had influenza, but who quite clearly only had a cold.

Most people will never in their lives actually get infected with influenza, and if you do, you certainly know about it. It's a magnitude worse than "a really bad cold".

[Undesired Walrus]

Hmm, Hope you are all right (I bow to your superior knowledge).

Guess I'll have to find a new way to push space travel.

[Pardalis]

While the origin is as of yet unknown, it is equally likely to be the result of human animal interface in a backyard pig or poultry operation or a large commercial pig or poultry operation that is sloppy about the polluting runoff of the animals' waste products.

Swine Flu in Mexico- Timeline of Events (http://biosurveillance.typepad.com/biosurveillance/2009/04/swine-flu-in-mexico-timeline-of-events.html)


And what's it got to do with capitalism?

To remind you, this is Oliver's original statement, his objection about the use of vaccines:

Yep, that's the capitalist approach to problems. **** the consument, let's throw a bunch of probably dangerous chemicals/hormones/medications at the problem.

The rationale escapes me. Attributing this to capitalism seems like a complete non-sequitur to me, not to mention his apparent ignorance of how we fight viruses.

[Dymanic]

Not really, during WWI you had a massive population, particularly susceptible to infection, located close together in unhygienic conditions, for an extended period. Mexico City is one of the most densely populated cities in the world, and a fourth of the dwellings have no access to sewage facilities (according to Wikipedia; never been there myself; not interested in going any time soon).

This gave the virus the opportunity to mutate rapidly and spread.Mutating rapidly is to influenza what flying is to birds or swimming to fish. It's what they do. Certain conditions promote reassortment, where different strains swap genes. Pigs have long been regarded as the ideal reservoir to support such events. This virus is a quadruple reassortment between two swine influenzas, one human, and one avian, so it seems to have somehow managed to find the conditions needed to make that happen despite the absence of a World War.

If the things you mentioned above were what gave the 1918 virus its virulence (and the actual virologists seldom claim to have a thorough understanding of that), then there's no good reason to think we're off the hook on that basis. The Spanish Flu pandemic began with a relatively mild first wave, so if we're going to assume that this one is going to stick to the same playbook, the fact that this bug hasn't jumped right out with a noticeably high CFR might be taken as much as a cause for concern as a cause for comfort -- but of course, nothing says this bug has to play by 1918 rules, so... who knows?

We are essentially in unexplored territory every time a novel virus comes along.

[MattusMaximus]

Just for reference, the CDC now has a page up on the Swine Flu...

http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu

I suggest that we spread the info far & wide, so as to minimize hysteria and the inevitable woo-mongering.

[Gangularis]

Perhaps it was the reaction by the public to the "press paranoia" - i.e, more diligence in health precautions and so forth - that prevented those things from becoming worse than they were.

So, I was happy to learn that Ohio's first case of swine flu is in my town.

On the other hand, I'm not worried. I'd completely finished one of the recalled jars of Peter Pan when that recall was announced a couple years ago, and I didn't die.

What town is that? my dad is in north east ohio - hartville area.

[DC]

So please tell me what in the name of jumping Jehosaphat does capitalism have anything to do with this virus?



So you don't know what you are talking about. Good.

:rolleyes:
So saying anything agaisnt Capitalism is now a Anti American rant? LOL

So do you know what you are talking about? would be somehting new.

[Skeptic Ginger]

....

Certainly widespread air travel makes it easier for a virus to spread, but it still doesn't even come close to the unique circumstances at the close of WWI.I wouldn't write off the variable of the 1918 virus in that 'unique circumstance' just yet. We're in a period of history where we think we have at least a handle on infectious disease, but it hasn't really been fully tested.

[Skeptic Ginger]

And what's it got to do with capitalism?

To remind you, this is Oliver's original statement, his objection about the use of vaccines:



The rationale escapes me. Attributing this to capitalism seems like a complete non-sequitur to me, not to mention his apparent ignorance of how we fight viruses.Well I wasn't defending Oliver in particular and certainly not the nonsense that either vaccines hurt people so profits can be made or someone put the virus out there in order to sell the cure. Those are ludicrous scenarios.


But I thought it was valid the large commercial pig farms aren't exactly known for concern about the communities they are located in. Profit over people is a big issue with the pig waste problems in the large operations. It is possible a sloppy operation will turn out to have put people at risk.

OTOH, it could also be people got the virus first and put the pigs at risk.

[shawmutt]

I'm more worried about the flu vaccine than the flu itself--THE SWINE FLU VACCINE WILL KILL ME LOLOLOLOLO!!!11!

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13356

It must be true coming from a PhD in Business Adminstration...wait...isn't that the commercial Sally Struthers was talking about?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Mexico City is one of the most densely populated cities in the world, and a fourth of the dwellings have no access to sewage facilities (according to Wikipedia; never been there myself; not interested in going any time soon).....
We are essentially in unexplored territory every time a novel virus comes along.
Not to mention the uncontrolled smog, and I have been there.

There is always the potential for new variables to amplify a pandemic virus even if we've conquered some of the old variables.

Currently there is a worldwide pandemic of the USA 300 strain of MRSA (a common staph bacteria). It so happens a staph/flu coinfection is a deadly combination that appeared a couple years ago in increasing frequency. Staph/flu coinfection has contributed to increased flu deaths in the past.

We just don't know.

[Abooga]

I think most if not all of these international cases of swine flu are just cases of regular flu. Just think about it, only around 1.000 cases in Mexico, and all these tourists are so unlucky to be around them and catch it? a handful of tourists from several countries, US, Spain, New Zealand, UK... If they all really caught it, the virus must´ve been very spread all around Mexico... not just 1000 cases...

I bet we´ll soon be hearing how they only had regular flu...

[KoihimeNakamura]

Unlikely. Some strains have been identified that are different than normal strains.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think most if not all of these international cases of swine flu are just cases of regular flu. Just think about it, only around 1.000 cases in Mexico, and all these tourists are so unlucky to be around them and catch it? a handful of tourists from several countries, US, Spain, New Zealand, UK... If they all really caught it, the virus must´ve been very spread all around Mexico... not just 1000 cases...

I bet we´ll soon be hearing how they only had regular flu...I think you are confusing some terms here.

Swine flu may be a misnomer. But 'novel' virus strain is not and that is the difference between this flu strain and seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu circulates around the globe genetically drifting over time. So there is more of a turnover in the population of people who are immune and people who aren't. As people get infected and develop immunity, others are born and the virus changes. The result is there are usually some people in the population at any one time that are immune and others that aren't.

The reason it matters is every immune person acts as a dead end or road block to spread of the virus. It can't infect the next person.

A novel strain is a strain with more genetic changes than usual. This happens sometimes by random mutation but more often by reassortment. When that happens you can get a virus no one is immune to. Thus there are no firewalls. The infection spreads through the population unimpeded. That alone makes it worse.

If the death rate is 1%, it still matters how many people get it to give you the total number of deaths. So even an average flu death rate will be higher in total deaths if more people are infected.

[Abooga]

I think you are confusing some terms here.

Swine flu may be a misnomer. But 'novel' virus strain is not and that is the difference between this flu strain and seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu circulates around the globe genetically drifting over time. So there is more of a turnover in the population of people who are immune and people who aren't. As people get infected and develop immunity, others are born and the virus changes. The result is there are usually some people in the population at any one time that are immune and others that aren't.

The reason it matters is every immune person acts as a dead end or road block to spread of the virus. It can't infect the next person.

A novel strain is a strain with more genetic changes than usual. This happens sometimes by random mutation but more often by reassortment. When that happens you can get a virus no one is immune to. Thus there are no firewalls. The infection spreads through the population unimpeded. That alone makes it worse.

If the death rate is 1%, it still matters how many people get it to give you the total number of deaths. So even an average flu death rate will be higher in total deaths if more people are infected.


What´s that got to do with what I said?

There are around 1.000 cases of this "novel" virus in the whole of Mexico (1.000 out of 110.000.000)

How likely is it that around 100 tourists (a couple in Spain, a dozen or so in the UK and New zealand etc.) manage to catch this virus?

Not very.

[The Atheist]

I think most if not all of these international cases of swine flu are just cases of regular flu. Just think about it, only around 1.000 cases in Mexico, and all these tourists are so unlucky to be around them and catch it? a handful of tourists from several countries, US, Spain, New Zealand, UK... If they all really caught it, the virus must´ve been very spread all around Mexico... not just 1000 cases...

Ha, I just made exactly that point elsewhere. I think probably 108 deaths from 20,000,000 cases just doesn't have the same impact.

Some of the tests have come back positive for swine flu among the internationals already, so it seems more likely to actually be a less virulent strain of influenza with a low percentage even seeking medical care for it, which has the effect of making nice scary numbers when you bring out the dead.

[Megalodon]

I don't know enough about this case to state whether it will lead to a major outbreak or not (And if SARS or Bird Flu was anything to go by, this is likely to be another case of press paranoia), but it's not all that unlikely a case in the near future may lead to more deaths than in 1918 (40% of the world's population infected!).

Repost from the other thread: We saw a huge concerted effort to prevent SARS from becoming what was feared to be the next large pandemic. I would think the same effort will be applied to this situation.

It is serious, it will probably be efficiently contained, and it will probably make it into some stupid list of "media scares" in the future...

[Abooga]

Ha, I just made exactly that point elsewhere. I think probably 108 deaths from 20,000,000 cases just doesn't have the same impact.

Some of the tests have come back positive for swine flu among the internationals already, so it seems more likely to actually be a less virulent strain of influenza with a low percentage even seeking medical care for it, which has the effect of making nice scary numbers when you bring out the dead.

Yes, that could be it. What´s obvious is that the way it´s being reported, the numbers don´t add up.

[gumboot]

I heard an interesting theory for the virus today. We in the west created it so that it would infect Muslims and make them unclean (because it's a pig virus).

Then, when the Muslims finally catch on to this and cry foul, we'll simply say "No, no, it was intended for the Jews".

Yes, the suggestion was made in jest. :)

[Richard Masters]

I think you are confusing some terms here.

Swine flu may be a misnomer. But 'novel' virus strain is not and that is the difference between this flu strain and seasonal flu.

Seasonal flu circulates around the globe genetically drifting over time. So there is more of a turnover in the population of people who are immune and people who aren't. As people get infected and develop immunity, others are born and the virus changes. The result is there are usually some people in the population at any one time that are immune and others that aren't.

The reason it matters is every immune person acts as a dead end or road block to spread of the virus. It can't infect the next person.

A novel strain is a strain with more genetic changes than usual. This happens sometimes by random mutation but more often by reassortment. When that happens you can get a virus no one is immune to. Thus there are no firewalls. The infection spreads through the population unimpeded. That alone makes it worse.

If the death rate is 1%, it still matters how many people get it to give you the total number of deaths. So even an average flu death rate will be higher in total deaths if more people are infected.

What´s that got to do with what I said?

There are around 1.000 cases of this "novel" virus in the whole of Mexico (1.000 out of 110.000.000)

How likely is it that around 100 tourists (a couple in Spain, a dozen or so in the UK and New zealand etc.) manage to catch this virus?

Not very.

You both make good points even though you are talking about different things.

[Checkmite]

What town is that? my dad is in north east ohio - hartville area.

Lorain-Elyria.

[eeyore1954]

Wasn't half the world supposed to be killed by the Avian Flu by now?

It was but they haven't let us know yet

According to Michael Savage the virus may have been genetically produced by middle eastern terrorists and introduced into Mexico. Then the illegal aliens will bring the virus to America, He is refusing to eat in any restaurants with Latin Americans employees.

[Richard Masters]

What´s that got to do with what I said?

There are around 1.000 cases of this "novel" virus in the whole of Mexico (1.000 out of 110.000.000)

How likely is it that around 100 tourists (a couple in Spain, a dozen or so in the UK and New zealand etc.) manage to catch this virus?

Not very.

My guess is the tourists did not all catch it in Mexico, but rather caught it from each other.

Also, the 1000 cases in Mexico may simply be confirmed cases due to severity. Someone feeling sick after a trip to any country is more likely to consult a doctor than someone who can't afford to skip a day of work for a doctor visit, or because the symptoms are weak at first.

So I think it's safe to say that the number is greater than 1000 actual cases, especially since the confirmed cases are spread across multiple states. I'm sure a virologist can offer a better explanation and prediction, though.

[eeyore1954]

IMO this is another thing being blown way out of proportion in order to drum up ratings for the evening news shows. The families of the unfortunate few who have gotten it would not agree with me.

[Richard Masters]

IMO this is another thing being blown way out of proportion in order to drum up ratings for the evening news shows. The families of the unfortunate few who have gotten it would not agree with me.

Doubtful. Schools through Mexico are being closed, and the Mexican government is issuing surgical masks.

[Dymanic]

Not to mention the uncontrolled smog, and I have been there.
Mexico City's high altitude could also be a contributing factor. I wonder if case fatality rates during the 1918 pandemic were higher at higher altitudes. Never thought to look at that.

[TjW]

IMO this is another thing being blown way out of proportion in order to drum up ratings for the evening news shows. The families of the unfortunate few who have gotten it would not agree with me.

The families of the unfortunate few who work in public health labs don't agree with you either.

[MattusMaximus]

I heard an interesting theory for the virus today. We in the west created it so that it would infect Muslims and make them unclean (because it's a pig virus).

Linky?

Btw, speaking of conspiracy theories, the David Icke forums are going gah-gah over this (http://www.davidicke.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=3)... my favorite is that the virus was put out there intentionally in order to force us all to take vaccines. And, of course, the government has some nefarious plan in place related to these vaccines... :rolleyes:

** cue spooky music **

[MattusMaximus]

According to Michael Savage the virus may have been genetically produced by middle eastern terrorists and introduced into Mexico. Then the illegal aliens will bring the virus to America, He is refusing to eat in any restaurants with Latin Americans employees.

Linky?

Great, now the anti-immigration nuts are going to be using this as an argument to "keep them damn foreigners" out of the United States.

Sounds like the fun is just beginning.

[Bill Thompson]

Perhaps Palestine is behind the Swine Flu and Allah is punishing the infidels for supporting the Jewish occupiers.

[timhau]

What is the usual mortality rate of influenza outbreaks in Mexico?

[Skeptic Ginger]

What´s that got to do with what I said?

There are around 1.000 cases of this "novel" virus in the whole of Mexico (1.000 out of 110.000.000)

How likely is it that around 100 tourists (a couple in Spain, a dozen or so in the UK and New zealand etc.) manage to catch this virus?

Not very.No, there are ~1,000 recognized cases in Mexico.

Mexico is currently only counting the serious cases that have come into hospitals. They haven't begun to assess how many people in the country actually have the infection.

With SARS, the few cases that spread outside the initial infection area took several months to even show up after many people were infected and already dying in China. (The total SARS count didn't include many of the initial outbreak cases.) And those international cases were all traced to a common source, a hotel elevator in Hong Kong.

The cases of swine flu now have no such single connection. And there are recognized cases in 9 countries including widely spread unconnected cases in the US. For that to happen this infection has to have already spread to tens of thousands in Mexico.

[Undesired Walrus]

There are now two confirmed cases of Swine Flu in Scotland.

Allegedly the UK is the second best prepared for such a wide-spread outbreak.

[Ron_Tomkins]

I fear for Porky the pig. I hope he's all right

[Skeptic Ginger]

Ha, I just made exactly that point elsewhere. I think probably 108 deaths from 20,000,000 cases just doesn't have the same impact.20,000,000 is probably way too high of an estimate.

Some of the tests have come back positive for swine flu among the internationals already, so it seems more likely to actually be a less virulent strain of influenza with a low percentage even seeking medical care for it, which has the effect of making nice scary numbers when you bring out the dead.There's also the problem of the not so average ages of those dead. If 20,000,000 were infected you'd expect to see an average 'U' age distribution. The 'W' age distribution is a bad sign.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Repost from the other thread: We saw a huge concerted effort to prevent SARS from becoming what was feared to be the next large pandemic. I would think the same effort will be applied to this situation.

It is serious, it will probably be efficiently contained, and it will probably make it into some stupid list of "media scares" in the future...Too late for containment. It will definitely not be contained.

The difference with SARS is that every case was ill enough to come to the attention of the medical community. So every contact could be found and isolated.

We'll never find every case of flu at this point.

[Pardalis]

There's also the problem of the not so average ages of those dead. If 20,000,000 were infected you'd expect to see an average 'U' age distribution. The 'W' age distribution is a bad sign.

You mean the relatively young age of those getting sick is more of a problem?

[Skeptic Ginger]

My guess is the tourists did not all catch it in Mexico, but rather caught it from each other.Where did this occur?

I think the direct connection to Mexico is true for most of the cases now, but soon that will not be the case as it spreads from the travelers to others. Many of them went through airports changing planes on their way home. With such a short incubation period I think it's safe to say they seeded the world.

Also, the 1000 cases in Mexico may simply be confirmed cases due to severity. ...
So I think it's safe to say that the number is greater than 1000 actual cases, especially since the confirmed cases are spread across multiple states. I'm sure a virologist can offer a better explanation and prediction, though.It's not a guess, it's a fact. In all the medical reports on this it has been clearly stated which cases were and were not being counted in Mexico compared to elsewhere.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Mexico City's high altitude could also be a contributing factor. I wonder if case fatality rates during the 1918 pandemic were higher at higher altitudes. Never thought to look at that.No, that didn't happen in 1918. I'd consider smog before altitude in Mexico City.

[Pardalis]

The other thing I'm wondering about is when did the 100 people who didn't make it get infected? How many days did they have the disease until their deaths?

We've first learned of this just a few days ago, and already there are casualties?

Not too long ago I played that online game (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=130370) for fun, but now I'm not so sure... :o

[alfaniner]

Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."

[Morrigan]

Anti-virals and **** like that cause another kind of problem such as Feminization (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feminization_%28biology%29),

What does a phenomenon caused by hormonal imbalance have to do with anti-virals? :confused:


so letting a bunch of commercially thinking nutjobs decide about solutions isn't either good for the economy nor for the environment. And transporting animals all over the world isn't helpful either to prevent any biological threats to humans.

You have no idea what you're talking about, do you?


I'm all for regional breeding and consume without chemical/medical treatment, so the consument does know where their meet comes from. You, on the other hand, seem to prefer medication and chemicals as a solution, which strikes me as quite stupid and self-destructive, to be honest with you.
Oh dear. Where's Rolfe where we need her?

[The Atheist]

Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."

It doesn't seem to be.

But it's new and has a much scarier name.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."
You should be concerned about regular flu. And equally concerned about this strain. But concerned means: warrants reasonable precautions.

A flu shot every year, the benefit by far outweighs any risks which are negligible.

Good handwashing.

Stay home when sick.

Get a thermometer if you don't have one and for any fever >101, see a health care provider that day.

That's all you need to do.

[Skeptic Ginger]

It doesn't seem to be.

But it's new and has a much scarier name.And there is no herd immunity as far as we know. That is a significant factor.

[paximperium]

It doesn't seem to be.

But it's new and has a much scarier name.
We have a new strain, never before seen with no immunity among those vaccinated, occurring outside of flu season and with a mortality rate that seems higher than usual.

Yeah, nothing to worry about.

[Skeptic Ginger]

The other thing I'm wondering about is when did the 100 people who didn't make it get infected? How many days did they have the disease until their deaths?

We've first learned of this just a few days ago, and already there are casualties?

...There was a significant amplification event in Mexico with the Semana Santa holiday (April 5th - 12th) and spring break travel to Mexico (varied a little by region and university), coupled with a very short incubation period.

[Dymanic]

Why is this any different from a regular flu? I probably wouldn't be concerned about it if there weren't so many people saying "Don't be too concerned about it."It might not turn out to be very much different from regular flu, from the perspective of a person afflicted with the illness. The main difference may turn out to be simply that a lot more people will have that perspective than would during a seasonal flu epidemic. There are two kinds of people in the world: those who use the word "only" in front of the word "flu" -- and those who have actually experienced flu.

Two numbers used in epidemiology are "clinical attack rate" and "case fatality rate". The first refers to the number of people who contract the illness. During a mild flu season, this may be somewhere around 5% of the population, and in a more severe season, closer to 15%. During an influenza pandemic, it can be expected to reach 25% or more. The second refers to the number of people who die as a result of the illness. This can also be expected to be higher with a pandemic strain, but perhaps not as high as you might think. The CFR from the Spanish Flu pandemic is usually estimated at about 2.5% (of those infected), compared with something less than 0.1% for seasonal flu.

So far, there is not nearly enough information to make any attempt at a reasonable estimate for either of these numbers for this new virus.

[Richard Masters]

Mexico City's high altitude could also be a contributing factor. I wonder if case fatality rates during the 1918 pandemic were higher at higher altitudes. Never thought to look at that.

Excellent idea!

[Richard Masters]

Where did this occur?

I think the direct connection to Mexico is true for most of the cases now, but soon that will not be the case as it spreads from the travelers to others. Many of them went through airports changing planes on their way home. With such a short incubation period I think it's safe to say they seeded the world.



That's, partly, what I'm suggesting.

It's not a guess, it's a fact. In all the medical reports on this it has been clearly stated which cases were and were not being counted in Mexico compared to elsewhere.

Thanks for the correction.

[Erigena]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but there have been 149 deaths related to the Swine Flu, correct? Relative to the 109 million people living in Mexico, I don't see the need for panic here.

Yes, it is important to be aware of it, but to me this is another example of the media blowing things out of proportion.

As for the animals, I’m all for them having a happy life before I eat them, but doesn’t seem relevant to the cause of the swine flu.

[paximperium]

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but there have been 149 deaths related to the Swine Flu, correct? Relative to the 109 million people living in Mexico, I don't see the need for panic here.

Yes, it is important to be aware of it, but to me this is another example of the media blowing things out of proportion.

As for the animals, I’m all for them having a happy life before I eat them, but doesn’t seem relevant to the cause of the swine flu.
So when should the government, media and public start worrying?
1000 deaths?
100,000? 1 million?

[Erigena]

So when should the government, media and public start worrying?
1000 deaths?
100,000? 1 million?
As I said, they should make the public aware, but there is a line between informing the public and causing a panic. The media is continuously spinning stories for ratings. It is also possible to have an epidemic without it becoming pandemic.

[rwguinn]

So when should the government, media and public start worrying?
1000 deaths?
100,000? 1 million?
According to the AP (http://www.star-telegram.com/448/story/1340282.html), there are 20 confirmed deaths in Mexico
Deaths: 149, all in Mexico, 20 confirmed as swine flu and rest suspected. 1,995 people have been hospitalized with pneumonia but government does not yet know how many were swine flu.
and 40 confirmed cases in the US.
THIS is a Pandemic?
More like Panicthepeopleforthehellofit

[Skeptic Ginger]

As I said, they should make the public aware, but there is a line between informing the public and causing a panic. The media is continuously spinning stories for ratings. It is also possible to have an epidemic without it becoming pandemic.Well that's one of the drawbacks when news is a 'for profit' commodity. It ceases to be a 'for information' commodity.

I believe as far as pandemic goes, we're almost to that threshold.

[Skeptic Ginger]

According to the AP (http://www.star-telegram.com/448/story/1340282.html), there are 20 confirmed deaths in Mexico

and 40 confirmed cases in the US.
THIS is a Pandemic?
More like PanicthepeopleforthehellofitIt would be helpful to learn some terminology in epidemiology before echoing false information.

Possible, probable and confirmed cases have specific definitions in epidemiology. It would be absurd to expect only to count confirmed cases in an influenza case count.

[Erigena]

Well that's one of the drawbacks when news is a 'for profit' commodity. It ceases to be a 'for information' commodity.

I believe as far as pandemic goes, we're almost to that threshold.
I agree with you about the news. I remember when CNN was relatively reliable source for new coverage. Now I feel like I'm watching an episode of Jerry Springer.

[gumboot]

Well some of the suspected cases in NZ have already come back as not even having Influenza, let alone this particular strain. And apparently one of the members of the largest quarantined group had the flu before they left NZ, so odds are they've just infected their friends with regular ole flu.

[rwguinn]

It would be helpful to learn some terminology in epidemiology before echoing false information.

Possible, probable and confirmed cases have specific definitions in epidemiology. It would be absurd to expect only to count confirmed cases in an influenza case count.

epidemic over a wide geographical area; "a pandemic outbreak of malaria"
an epidemic that is geographically widespread; occurring throughout a region or even throughout the world
existing everywhere; "pandemic fear of nuclear war"

From here (http://forums.randi.org/wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn)

so, <300 cases=epidimic over a wide geographical area.
Gotcha.
Buh-bye. Again

[Soapy Sam]

As a lover of bacon sandwiches, some of my happiest moments have involved ingesting pigs.
If this is the price- it's been worth it!

[aerosolben]

No. The WHO has not made any change to the alert level today. Where in the world did you get that? Did you just make it up? They've been at phase 3 since avian influenza first surfaced in the human population in 1997.
The WHO influenza pandemic alert level been raised to 4 as of today. (source (http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090427/en/index.html))

ETA: Indicating containment is considered infeasible due to sustained human-to-human transmission rates. The highest "pre-pandemic" level, and the one where governments/health organizations need to start worrying.

[The Atheist]

We have a new strain, never before seen with no immunity among those vaccinated, occurring outside of flu season and with a mortality rate that seems higher than usual.

Yeah, nothing to worry about.

Where is the evidence which suggests a higher than usual mortality rate? The opposite seems to be the case.

Well some of the suspected cases in NZ have already come back as not even having Influenza, let alone this particular strain. And apparently one of the members of the largest quarantined group had the flu before they left NZ, so odds are they've just infected their friends with regular ole flu.

Yeah, what a have!

[MattusMaximus]

You should be concerned about regular flu. And equally concerned about this strain. But concerned means: warrants reasonable precautions.

A flu shot every year, the benefit by far outweighs any risks which are negligible.

Good handwashing.

Stay home when sick.

Get a thermometer if you don't have one and for any fever >101, see a health care provider that day.

That's all you need to do.

You forgot to say...

PANIC WILDLY!!! AAAAAGGGGHHH!!! :jaw-dropp:boxedin::boggled::eye-poppi:covereyes:jaw-dropp

;)

[MattusMaximus]

As a lover of bacon sandwiches, some of my happiest moments have involved ingesting pigs.
If this is the price- it's been worth it!

The swine flu isn't transmitted by eating pork - CDC link. (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm)

[MattusMaximus]

According to the AP (http://www.star-telegram.com/448/story/1340282.html), there are 20 confirmed deaths in Mexico

and 40 confirmed cases in the US.
THIS is a Pandemic?
More like Panicthepeopleforthehellofit

Wrong. As skeptigirl says, you really need to learn more about the terminology before you start spouting off nonsense. Here, let me make it easy for you...

CDC - What is an influenza pandemic? (http://www.pandemicflu.gov/faq/pandemicinfluenza/2008.html)
A pandemic is a global disease outbreak. An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza A virus emerges for which there is little or no immunity in the human population, begins to cause serious illness, and then spreads easily person-to-person worldwide. ...

ETA: That said, I have seen some media outlets promoting more panic than useful information. Fortunately, most media outlets seem to have been pretty responsible throughout this whole thing. The CTists and other woo-meisters are having a field day, though.

[Richard Masters]

You should all know I invited some relatives from Mexico very recently, and will not bathe or wash my hands (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=140462&highlight=hell+bathe).

[petra10]

My kid has got an appointment at Monklands Hospital on Friday, anyone know where we can get some of those blue masks? :)

Seriously two people have been confirmed as having the swine flu in Scotland.
We are told they are responding to treatment and its not life threatening.Since they returned home from holidaying in Mexico, they have been in contact with 22 people.Seven of these people are being treated at home with anti-biotics and the rest of the 22 people are being tested.

Its a bit scary how easily it can be pasted on.

[Dymanic]

The WHO influenza pandemic alert level been raised to 4 as of today.
Right. But not yesterday. The poster should have been right; they should have raised the alert level yesterday. Or even the day before. Why bother using the word "alert" if it isn't issued early enough to serve a useful purpose? Would you rather have a smoke alarm, or a "your house is fully engulfed in flames" alarm?

[aerosolben]

Wrong. As skeptigirl says, you really need to learn more about the terminology before you start spouting off nonsense. Here, let me make it easy for you...

CDC - What is an influenza pandemic? (http://www.pandemicflu.gov/faq/pandemicinfluenza/2008.html)
Even simpler, from the WHO:
A pandemic can start when three conditions have been met: a new influenza virus subtype emerges; it infects humans, causing serious illness; and it spreads easily and sustainably among humans
It appears numbers 1 is quite true, number 2 very suggestive (there's some debate here about severity, but even with caveats, 7 deaths in 73 confirmed cases warrants concern), while number 3 partially confirmed and under evaluation.

[aerosolben]

Right. But not yesterday. The poster should have been right; they should have raised the alert level yesterday. Or even the day before. Why bother using the word "alert" if it isn't issued early enough to serve a useful purpose? Would you rather have a smoke alarm, or a "your house is fully engulfed in flames" alarm?
Well, it would have to be been the day before, as the committee didn't meet yesterday.

Not sure what you want them to do. This is a very recent and ongoing development - it's been less than a week since the first confirmed cases appeared. Much of the news is unconfirmed infections, which the WHO needs to confirm to make recommendations. Countries with outbreaks seem to be taking precautionary measures quite capably on their own.

[Dymanic]

Well, it would have to be been the day before, as the committee didn't meet yesterday.
They had planned not to even meet until tomorrow.

Not sure what you want them to do.
How about: salvage what's left of their reputation by being consistent with their own definitions of the pandemic phases without making themselves look even more incompetent by revising the definitions on the fly, in the teeth of a major epidemiological event?

Countries with outbreaks seem to be taking precautionary measures quite capably on their own.Good thing they didn't wait for the WHO to raise the alert phase, eh? At some point one begins to ask why the WHO even exists, doesn't one, if they're too timid to act in a timely manner? Maybe they should just wait until the whole thing's over, so they can give us absolutely airtight numbers, and we'll know exactly how many people were infected at each stage of the event.

[ServiceSoon]

Good thing they didn't wait for the WHO to raise the alert phase, eh? At some point one begins to ask why the WHO even exists, doesn't one, if they're too timid to act in a timely manner? Maybe they should just wait until the whole thing's over, so they can give us absolutely airtight numbers, and we'll know exactly how many people were infected at each stage of the event.The WHO exist to condition the human race to accept the NWO. Duh.

[TjW]

Right. But not yesterday. The poster should have been right; they should have raised the alert level yesterday. Or even the day before. Why bother using the word "alert" if it isn't issued early enough to serve a useful purpose? Would you rather have a smoke alarm, or a "your house is fully engulfed in flames" alarm?

Well, if it's any consolation, there have been alerts going out to the public health departments here in So. Cal. since Friday, with a daily teleconference with the CDC.

[aerosolben]

How about: salvage what's left of their reputation by being consistent with their own definitions of the pandemic phases without making themselves look even more incompetent by revising the definitions on the fly, in the teeth of a major epidemiological event?
I was not aware they changed their criteria. Citation?

[rwguinn]

Wrong. As skeptigirl says, you really need to learn more about the terminology before you start spouting off nonsense. Here, let me make it easy for you...

CDC - What is an influenza pandemic? (http://www.pandemicflu.gov/faq/pandemicinfluenza/2008.html)


ETA: That said, I have seen some media outlets promoting more panic than useful information. Fortunately, most media outlets seem to have been pretty responsible throughout this whole thing. The CTists and other woo-meisters are having a field day, though.
Ok-I can see the WHO's definition is useful in preventing a disease from becoming a dictionary definition of pandemic (which is what I used) in reality.
The question is, to me, at least, why use a word that is so heavily loaded toward panic, and which has a dictionary definition that causes people to think of middle ages and the Plague?
Now, I don't know the numbers, but I do know a bit about Mexico City. Even 150 deaths from respiratory problems is likely not really unusual, given the altitude, pollution levels, and general squalor of the place. Add in springtime pollen and wind-blown dust, and a volcano or two, and it does not require much of an infection to kill people.
What it appears to be is a method to induce panic is as large a number of people as possible.
Throw in a magnitude 6 Earthquake today, stir in corruption, and some drug lords, and they have big problems down there

ETA: Ad Hom noted (bolded). My concerns are real. How about actually thinking about the E in JREF before you get so *********** self-righteous, dude?

[TX50]

...Seven of these people are being treated at home with anti-biotics.

I think you must mean antivirals. Antibiotics don't fight the flu.

[MattusMaximus]

Ok-I can see the WHO's definition is useful in preventing a disease from becoming a dictionary definition of pandemic (which is what I used) in reality.
The question is, to me, at least, why use a word that is so heavily loaded toward panic, and which has a dictionary definition that causes people to think of middle ages and the Plague?

Blame the media for not educating people about the real meaning of "pandemic". Or, we could also blame people who are too lazy to actually go look it up for themselves.

Now, I don't know the numbers, but I do know a bit about Mexico City. Even 150 deaths from respiratory problems is likely not really unusual, given the altitude, pollution levels, and general squalor of the place. Add in springtime pollen and wind-blown dust, and a volcano or two, and it does not require much of an infection to kill people.
What it appears to be is a method to induce panic is as large a number of people as possible.

:confused: Yeah, that makes sense. Because a panic would make things so much better.

The CT subforum is two doors down on the right :rolleyes:

ETA: Ad Hom noted (bolded). My concerns are real. How about actually thinking about the E in JREF before you get so *********** self-righteous, dude?

I did educate you. If you don't like how I educated you, just ignore me.

In the meantime, how about learning how to google "pandemic" before you go spouting nonsense and alleging conspiracy mongering idiocy? Here, let me google that for you. (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=pandemic)

[timhau]

Stay home when sick.

Get a thermometer if you don't have one and for any fever >101, see a health care provider that day.

That's all you need to do.

And of the Mexicans who died of swine flu, how many could afford these when they fell ill?

[aviolet4u]

Yeah circumstances, situations differ so much globally...its sad that they could've been helped somewhere else.

[Skeptic Ginger]

From here (http://forums.randi.org/wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn)

so, <300 cases=epidimic over a wide geographical area.
Gotcha.
Buh-bye. AgainEach organism has it's own criteria for what = an epidemic. Essentially exceeding the background rate for that infection is involved. Same goes for case definitions, to each organism, his own.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Where is the evidence which suggests a higher than usual mortality rate? The opposite seems to be the case....The age pattern of the deaths in Mexico is the thing that currently suggests a potentially worse strain of flu. Really, we've only seen a drop in the bucket outside of Mexico. When ten thousand get infected outside Mexico, then you'll know if you have a worse than usual flu coupled with what we already know will likely be a worse than usual number of total cases involved.

[Darth Rotor]

The better thread on this topic is in the Science forum. This forum's players are not doing a good job. Thanks SG for your efforts in cross posting.

Now, how many of you very funny people live near Mexico, in Texas or CA, and are at a bit of risk in the near future due to a thing called probability?

How many?

I do. I am. But funny old thing, I am not in a panic.

I do, however, pay close attention to what CDC and WHO are saying ... since what is happening in Mexico is not something to laugh at. That the Catholic Church in Mexico City basically cancelled Mass this past Sunday ought to give one pause ...

DR

[Skeptic Ginger]

You forgot to say...

PANIC WILDLY!!! AAAAAGGGGHHH!!! :jaw-dropp:boxedin::boggled::eye-poppi:covereyes:jaw-dropp

;)
No need, there's no benefit in that.

Here's my experience thinking about precautions yesterday and today:

Forget it, just get some Tamiflu and a thermometer.

I'm in a state with no new variant flu, but you can't help knowing it will be here before it is officially noted.

OK, so yesterday I went to a friend's house for a lunch party, a birthday celebration. I arrive while food is still being prepared. My friend is licking her fingers and touching the deviled eggs with the same hand. Her hands went into everything that wasn't hot out of the oven. Two people share a fork. 2 of the visiting dogs sniff a few serving plates before the plates are rescued and put on higher counters. I manage to only eat the cooked dishes without offending anyone.

So today I'm at the grocery store ready to check out. Line A the bag person is coughing. I skip line A and go to line B. After using the stupid pen that writes the digital signatures that every person using a credit card or a debit card is forced to use, I also notice the cashier really has to touch the outside of everything I buy. I wonder how one could ever prevent every surface contaminant from entering your home, even if you wash your hands. Then the grocery bagger takes out a Kleenex and grossly blows her nose. This is just after finishing putting all my groceries into bags.

I get in the car and check my waterless hand cleaner. The source I looked up yesterday says 70% alcohol will work against flu. I note my stuff has 66% alcohol. Oh well, I have a case (use it in my medical practice) and am not about to toss it for new stuff. 66% will just have to do, I'm pretty sure it will probably work. But I note that I touched my car keys, the steering wheel and the door handle all before using the alcohol hand rub. Should I try to decon my keys and the steering wheel?

I think none of this will matter if I can keep my hands out out my eyes, nose and mouth. Suddenly my eye itches. I try to scratch it with the back of my finger. Then I remember that is the body part I use to push elevator buttons. Sigh....

There is no way one can leave the house without being exposed if a virus were running rampant through the community. How do you decontaminate everything that your hands eventually touch or keep your hands out of your face with 100% compliance?

It is virtually impossible. If the virus survives long on surfaces (and in some studies flu virus does) you simply cannot keep all surfaces free of contamination.

I need a better plan.

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
Now, I don't know the numbers, but I do know a bit about Mexico City. Even 150 deaths from respiratory problems is likely not really unusual, given the altitude, pollution levels, and general squalor of the place....In this case there are 150 excess deaths and in a population age one would not expect to see, even in Mexico. I don't think the whole country is shut down over mislabeling routine deaths.

[Skeptic Ginger]

And of the Mexicans who died of swine flu, how many could afford these when they fell ill?
Are you saying you are an impoverished third world country inhabitant who cannot afford to not work for a day?

Or do you think we should all make note to include every potential situation when making a very general comment?

[Dymanic]

I was not aware they changed their criteria. Citation?
The World Health Organization (WHO) revised on Monday its 6-point scale for pandemic alerts, saying that phase 5 would correspond to a strong signal that a pandemic is "imminent."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/usTopNews/idUKTRE53Q4YR20090427

[Skeptic Ginger]

The better thread on this topic is in the Science forum. This forum's players are not doing a good job....

DRWell I'll have to copy my attempt at humor over to one of those threads. The assumption I wouldn't know about the human condition around the world made me want to post nasty, "Well duh!s". And that time waste always ends up in the dungeon.

[gumboot]

There is no way one can leave the house without being exposed if a virus were running rampant through the community. How do you decontaminate everything that your hands eventually touch or keep your hands out of your face with 100% compliance?

It is virtually impossible. If the virus survives long on surfaces (and in some studies flu virus does) you simply cannot keep all surfaces free of contamination.

I need a better plan.



You do realise that the constant day to day contamination of our bodies is precisely why we aren't all dead right now, right? I mean, constant exposure is actually a good thing.

If anything an obsession with cleanliness is only going to put you at higher risk of fatal infection.

[The Atheist]

The swine flu isn't transmitted by eating pork - CDC link. (http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/key_facts.htm)

Don't say that!

Even eating bacon can get you swine flu - in fact the more cured the meat, the less curable the disease!

(I have a pork share scam running and you'll ruin it.)

No need, there's no benefit in that.

Here's my experience thinking about precautions yesterday and today:

Forget it, just get some Tamiflu and a thermometer.

That is just what authorities are saying not to do. The concern is that if lots of people rush out and buy Tamiflu unnecessarily, it might run out if it's needed.

Get Tamiflu if you get influenza.

[Skeptic Ginger]

You do realise that the constant day to day contamination of our bodies is precisely why we aren't all dead right now, right? I mean, constant exposure is actually a good thing.

If anything an obsession with cleanliness is only going to put you at higher risk of fatal infection.Surely you, Gumboot, know the difference between a single pathogen one should avoid and the gazillion other proteins one is exposed to daily?

[Skeptic Ginger]

...That is just what authorities are saying not to do. The concern is that if lots of people rush out and buy Tamiflu unnecessarily, it might run out if it's needed.

Get Tamiflu if you get influenza.I meant get Tamiflu to have on hand. The thermometer is to tell you when to take it. And frankly, if you have a source for the stuff that you can get it from after you get that fever, then no need to have your own supply.

But the strategic planning lacks a key element. How are you supposed to get the Tamiflu within 48 preferably 24 hours of your sudden onset of symptoms?

Anyone in any of your communities made any announcements about what to do if you get sick other than, "see your doctor?" Think every clinic is stocking Tamiflu? No. They're going to write you a prescription to take to the pharmacy. Great, now you've spread the virus at the clinic and the pharmacy. And with a fever >101, severe muscle aches, headache and sometimes vomiting, you are running around trying to get treatment.

For those people who are capable of managing the med themselves, get some and have it on hand. There is no a huge shortage of the stuff. They've been cranking it out since the bird flu appeared.

I've sent my son the thermometer and told him to call me if he gets a fever. In his case I can get the pills for him. But I live alone. I'm not leaving the house if I get sick if I can help it.

[gumboot]

Surely you, Gumboot, know the difference between a single pathogen one should avoid and the gazillion other proteins one is exposed to daily?

Yes but there's no way to only avoid contact with a single pathogen, and IMHO maintaining exposure in general is of greater benefit than the very low probability of being exposed to that one pathogen.

Obviously in specific cases where you know you either are, or have high probability of being exposed to that particular pathogen it's only sensible to take extra precautions.

[gumboot]

But the strategic planning lacks a key element. How are you supposed to get the Tamiflu within 48 preferably 24 hours of your sudden onset of symptoms?

Anyone in any of your communities made any announcements about what to do if you get sick other than, "see your doctor?" Think every clinic is stocking Tamiflu? No. They're going to write you a prescription to take to the pharmacy.



I imagine it varies from place to place. Here Tamiflu is controlled by the government, and only issued in specific cases. Ministry of Health officials are directly involved in every single case and actively tracking people who have come in contact with people suspected of infection.

[timhau]

Are you saying you are an impoverished third world country inhabitant who cannot afford to not work for a day?

Or do you think we should all make note to include every potential situation when making a very general comment?

Neither, I'm just trying to get a hang of how bad this disease is. The fact that it killed working-age folks instead of old people and small children sounds bad, but could it be because in Mexico, many working-age people have to choose between straining themselves while sick and not getting paid?

[gumboot]

Has anyone got links to any reliable data on the demographics of those who have died or suspected of having died from the virus?

[KoihimeNakamura]

Skeptigirl: Ur.. I know I can't take a day off if I get sick. Your advise about the thermometer is well recieved though.

[Miss_Kitt]

I think the main reason it isn't taken seriously is because so many people refer to the common cold as a "flu". I've had numerous arguments with people who were convinced they had influenza, but who quite clearly only had a cold.

Most people will never in their lives actually get infected with influenza, and if you do, you certainly know about it. It's a magnitude worse than "a really bad cold".

Amen to that!! I had "Influenza A" about a dozen years ago, and I was as sick as I've ever been in my life! I ran a fever so high I saw hand-sized spiders walking around on the walls of my bedroom, and I coughed for weeks! My doctor ended up giving me a steroid inhaler later that year, because three months after I was still a bit "wheezy" from the damage I took. And I was young and healthy! Even with the anti-virals, I spent most of a week in bed. Nasty, nasty stuff, definitely not a cold.

I now get the flu shot every year, and make my family get it, too. You don't necessarily get full protection, but it's going to be at least some help for some strains of flu, and that's better than nothing. (It also, incidentally, reduces the chances of you having two strains at once, and having them swap genes while using you as the incubator. Flu vaccination *may* help prevent pandemic flu from developing.) But the biggest thing you can do to protect yourself from the flu is: Wash your hands. Frequently, thoroughly, and for long enough for the soap to work.

Those masks people wear aren't generally much good for protection if you are uninfected and around someone who is; but they do protect those around you if YOU are infected and don't know it yet. It contains your germs from getting out.

I wonder if the public health apparatus is checking whether there is a connection between herbal entertainment and flu cases in the US? It seems to me that someone who "has not been to Mexico" might well not mention that they buy their dope from someone who is importing it from there.

Just my thoughts, MK

[gumboot]

Amen to that!! I had "Influenza A" about a dozen years ago, and I was as sick as I've ever been in my life! I ran a fever so high I saw hand-sized spiders walking around on the walls of my bedroom, and I coughed for weeks! My doctor ended up giving me a steroid inhaler later that year, because three months after I was still a bit "wheezy" from the damage I took. And I was young and healthy! Even with the anti-virals, I spent most of a week in bed. Nasty, nasty stuff, definitely not a cold.


Interestingly, one of the quarantined students here was interviewed on the news tonight and reported that all she had was a mild cough, which has passed in a matter of days. I'm predicting that the students from that school just picked up a cold off each other.

[alfaniner]

I hate using communal digital (or normal) pens -- it's as bad as using a common drinking glass. Yet I still get odd looks when I pull my own pen out of my pocket instead of using that germ-laden stilo that the counter person has slammed down on the receipt I must sign, forcing me to sluff it out of the way to use my own damn pen.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Neither, I'm just trying to get a hang of how bad this disease is. The fact that it killed working-age folks instead of old people and small children sounds bad, but could it be because in Mexico, many working-age people have to choose between straining themselves while sick and not getting paid?I don't want to sound mean, timhau. I'm sure that makes sense to you. But the fact is the death rate in Mexico is unusual and is not explained by such simple things as, they are poor unhealthy souls while we are healthy with good medical care.

The qualified assessment, that is the assessment coming from the people who know what they are talking about, is there is insufficient data to explain the unusual deaths in Mexico, but the deaths do at the moment indeed appear unusual. There are many possible reasons why. When we get more data, we'll have a better picture of what is going on.

It always amazes me how ignorant some people think the CDC and WHO must be not to be able to figure out such simple things. The truth is there are very qualified investigators looking at the situation. We will have the answers, but only after we see a bit more of what happens.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I hate using communal digital (or normal) pens -- it's as bad as using a common drinking glass. Yet I still get odd looks when I pull my own pen out of my pocket instead of using that germ-laden stilo that the counter person has slammed down on the receipt I must sign, forcing me to sluff it out of the way to use my own damn pen.I will sometimes have my pen in my hand. No one thinks it's odd if you have your pen before the clerk finds one to hand you. But you can't use a pen on those digi-signature pads.

I suppose it's no worse than the coins they hand you.

So that leaves the alcohol hand rub.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Interestingly, one of the quarantined students here was interviewed on the news tonight and reported that all she had was a mild cough, which has passed in a matter of days. I'm predicting that the students from that school just picked up a cold off each other.A mild cough is definitely not a symptom that sounds like flu.

It's too bad they are going overkill on people who just happen to be sick and have come from Mexico. It will reinforce the false perception the public already has that the flu is the same as an average cold.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Amen to that!! I had "Influenza A" about a dozen years ago, and I was as sick as I've ever been in my life! I ran a fever so high I saw hand-sized spiders walking around on the walls of my bedroom, and I coughed for weeks! My doctor ended up giving me a steroid inhaler later that year, because three months after I was still a bit "wheezy" from the damage I took. And I was young and healthy! Even with the anti-virals, I spent most of a week in bed. Nasty, nasty stuff, definitely not a cold.Now that sounds like the actual flu. (see above post for context.)

Those masks people wear aren't generally much good for protection if you are uninfected and around someone who is; but they do protect those around you if YOU are infected and don't know it yet. It contains your germs from getting out.Actually, there is evidence most flu is droplet spread. The masks, even just surgical masks do provide some protection especially if they keep people from putting contaminated hands in their mouth.

I wonder if the public health apparatus is checking whether there is a connection between herbal entertainment and flu cases in the US? It seems to me that someone who "has not been to Mexico" might well not mention that they buy their dope from someone who is importing it from there.

Just my thoughts, MKThat's an interesting thought.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Skeptigirl: Ur.. I know I can't take a day off if I get sick. Your advise about the thermometer is well recieved though.Do you work around a lot of people, or can you stay away from others if you have to work?

Even when people go to work with mild colds because staying home isn't always an option, they could limit the spread to coworkers with some common measures. I wear a face mask when I work if I have mild symptoms or a lingering cough after recovering from something. But it's easy for me because I only need to wear it when I am seeing a patient. They usually appreciate it, rather than being bothered by it.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Has anyone got links to any reliable data on the demographics of those who have died or suspected of having died from the virus?Not yet but I have some inquiries out that I expect to produce those answers when they are available.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Yes but there's no way to only avoid contact with a single pathogen, ...Sure there is, depending on the pathogen. We do it all the time. It's called infection control.

[gumboot]

We've received the first results from WHO tests... of the original ten-student group three have been confirmed as infected with the swine virus. However all but one of the students has already recovered, and they were contacted almost immediately upon reaching home so the likelihood of a spread from these ten is very low.

[soylent]

Well, I blame mass production under "inhuman" circumstances for these types of threats. Meat should cost twice as much and in return, the Government should pass laws making sure that the animals grow up in a "happy&healthy environment" in return.

I blame poor rural farmers living in close proximity to their animals; this is why most flues originate from Asia.

[soylent]

I think you must mean antivirals. Antibiotics don't fight the flu.

They do if you get serious secondary infections(e.g. pneumonia).

[rwguinn]

Blame the media for not educating people about the real meaning of "pandemic". Or, we could also blame people who are too lazy to actually go look it up for themselves.



:confused: Yeah, that makes sense. Because a panic would make things so much better.

The CT subforum is two doors down on the right :rolleyes:



I did educate you. If you don't like how I educated you, just ignore me.

In the meantime, how about learning how to google "pandemic" before you go spouting nonsense and alleging conspiracy mongering idiocy? Here, let me google that for you. (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=pandemic)
My, my--how smug we are.
I gave you the google definintio, and even a *********** link to it.
So look before you accuse people, ok? Don't be an ass.
oops-too late

[Oliver]

CNN: Pandemic alert level raised (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu/index.html)

The World Health Organization raised its pandemic alert level today in response to the swine flu outbreak. Mexico officials suspect 152 people have died from the flu. Fifty cases -- none fatal -- have been confirmed in the United States. The higher alert level means WHO has determined the virus is capable of significant human-to-human transmission. full story (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu/index.html)

Not good.

[gumboot]

Not good.

There's nothing particularly concerning about a pandemic. Symptoms outside Mexico appear to have been very, very mild. This sucker ain't gonna kill half the world's population or anything.

[Pardalis]

Not good.

Judging from your crappy uninformed posts in this thread, I'd shut the hell up.

[Richard Masters]

The better thread on this topic is in the Science forum. This forum's players are not doing a good job. Thanks SG for your efforts in cross posting.

Now, how many of you very funny people live near Mexico, in Texas or CA, and are at a bit of risk in the near future due to a thing called probability?

How many?

I do. I am. But funny old thing, I am not in a panic.

I do, however, pay close attention to what CDC and WHO are saying ... since what is happening in Mexico is not something to laugh at. That the Catholic Church in Mexico City basically cancelled Mass this past Sunday ought to give one pause ...

DR

As someone who lived in Mexico for a very long time, I can say that cancelling mass, school, issuing masks or any major and immediate action by the government is indeed a big deal.

Having to sleep in a stadium during Katrina is a laughable complaint in Mexico as you at least have a roof over your head. Thus, relatively speaking, this outbreak should cause at least that much concern.

FOX and CNN might be having a field day with the fear-mongering as they always do; but this time it might be slightly more justified.

[rwguinn]

There's nothing particularly concerning about a pandemic. Symptoms outside Mexico appear to have been very, very mild. This sucker ain't gonna kill half the world's population or anything.
I'll buy that. But when somebody, like myself, puts "Define: Pandemic" into google, it come back with frightening definitions.

epidemic over a wide geographical area; "a pandemic outbreak of malaria"
an epidemic that is geographically widespread; occurring throughout a region or even throughout the world
existing everywhere; "pandemic fear of nuclear war"
wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn (http://www.google.com/url?sa=X&start=0&oi=define&ei=UyD3SbLPPJKWMfrb7LAP&sig2=Cw7FaNEIu1hMD4GfrnaNTg&q=http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn%3Fs%3Dpandemic&usg=AFQjCNH5s9GrV1OAqmU2Orb0SUCvGF0NDg)
and epidemic makes it worse:

a widespread outbreak of an infectious disease; many people are infected at the same time
(especially of medicine) of disease or anything resembling a disease; attacking or affecting many individuals in a community or a population ...
wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn (http://www.google.com/url?sa=X&start=0&oi=define&ei=jSD3ScmuNpuOMo388LgP&sig2=k5RQk555Sfi1SDtvYhbvyw&q=http://wordnet.princeton.edu/perl/webwn%3Fs%3Depidemic&usg=AFQjCNEShsqcwOh_2yDKKSxTY5-lGWrdaA)
and Princeton.edu is definitely a bunch that should know...
and it pisses me off that certain individuals then bitch about Wrong. As skeptigirl says, you really need to learn more about the terminology before you start spouting off nonsense. Here, let me make it easy for you...

If you're going to change definitions from the popular and common usage, you shouldn't bitch about people asking questions and questioning the motive for the change.
And this accusation:
In the meantime, how about learning how to google "pandemic" before you go spouting nonsense and alleging conspiracy mongering idiocy? Here, let me google that for you. (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=pandemic) derives from a holier-than-thou, smug, conceit that has no basis in reality.

[Bill Thompson]

I think if there was less demand for pork this would not be happening. I think factory farming is what's responsible for all these outbreaks of animalborne diseases.

Cramming animals by the hundreds or thousands into gigantic, windowless sheds—in which the air is teeming with bacteria and the pigs' or chickens' throats are burned by the accumulated waste—is a recipe for spreading virulent diseases. Just last month, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof wrote two articles about the spread of deadly methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus on pig farms. Kristof isn't psychic. He's just paying attention.

Western civilization and her culture is doing a lot of bad things. Our attitude of doing whatever we want without regard to consequences is hurting us and is going to continue to hurt us. We don't NEED to eat so much pork and other meats.

[alfaniner]

On a cynical note, given that Sweeps Month began April 23, it's no wonder why CNN et. al. have had nothing but this in the news since then.

[Skeptic Ginger]

We've received the first results from WHO tests... of the original ten-student group three have been confirmed as infected with the swine virus. However all but one of the students has already recovered, and they were contacted almost immediately upon reaching home so the likelihood of a spread from these ten is very low.
Until the next plane from Mexico arrives anyway. ;)

[Skeptic Ginger]

I blame poor rural farmers living in close proximity to their animals; this is why most flues originate from Asia.Funny, some people are blaming large corporate pig farms whose pollution contaminates those rural areas. And with bird flu, it appears illegal smuggling of live birds & fertilized eggs, along with the millions of chickens in close proximity to each other in commercial poultry operations contribute to a lot of disease.

[Skeptic Ginger]

There's nothing particularly concerning about a pandemic. Symptoms outside Mexico appear to have been very, very mild. This sucker ain't gonna kill half the world's population or anything.So if it turns out to be correct as was reported in another thread that all of the dead so far have been between 20 and 50 years of age and that is unheard of with mild flu strains, you'll just ignore that evidence in favor of all the other evidence?

I plan to wait and see what that means before I draw any conclusions.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think if there was less demand for pork this would not be happening. I think factory farming is what's responsible for all these outbreaks of animalborne diseases.

Cramming animals by the hundreds or thousands into gigantic, windowless sheds—in which the air is teeming with bacteria and the pigs' or chickens' throats are burned by the accumulated waste—is a recipe for spreading virulent diseases. Just last month, New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof wrote two articles about the spread of deadly methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus on pig farms. Kristof isn't psychic. He's just paying attention.

Western civilization and her culture is doing a lot of bad things. Our attitude of doing whatever we want without regard to consequences is hurting us and is going to continue to hurt us. We don't NEED to eat so much pork and other meats.So if this turns out to be not a swine flu source at all, but rather a virus that simply reassorted in a human host, who will you blame?

[gumboot]

So if it turns out to be correct as was reported in another thread that all of the dead so far have been between 20 and 50 years of age and that is unheard of with mild flu strains, you'll just ignore that evidence in favor of all the other evidence?


The evidence is that everyone outside Mexico has had very mild symptoms and recovered in a matter of days.

[shuize]

The origin of the outbreak has been determined:

http://imgur.com/27K39.jpg

[MattusMaximus]

I'll buy that. But when somebody, like myself, puts "Define: Pandemic" into google, it come back with frightening definitions.

Rather than count on any number of non-experts on the Internet to provide supposedly authoritative definitions for important medical terms for you, why don't you just go straight to the actual medical & disease experts? That is precisely why I keep telling you to go to the CDC (http://cdc.gov) and other reputable sources for your information. Duh :rolleyes:

If you're going to change definitions from the popular and common usage, you shouldn't bitch about people asking questions and questioning the motive for the change.

Right. Doctors and disease experts should change their definitions to fit the uninformed and stupid notions of "common usage" of pandemic. And what the hell does "questioning the motive for the change" mean? Are you implying more conspiracy nonsense? Good grief.

And this accusation:
derives from a holier-than-thou, smug, conceit that has no basis in reality.

Whatever floats your boat, pal.

[MattusMaximus]

So if it turns out to be correct as was reported in another thread that all of the dead so far have been between 20 and 50 years of age and that is unheard of with mild flu strains, you'll just ignore that evidence in favor of all the other evidence?

I plan to wait and see what that means before I draw any conclusions.

What's the source on that?

ETA: Never mind, I found it. Linky. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/8021827.stm) Not too sure about whether to trust that or not. As SG says, the best course of action now is to await more data.

[rwguinn]

Rather than count on any number of non-experts on the Internet to provide supposedly authoritative definitions for important medical terms for you, why don't you just go straight to the actual medical & disease experts? That is precisely why I keep telling you to go to the CDC (http://cdc.gov) and other reputable sources for your information. Duh :rolleyes:
Like 99.9% of the people in the world, when I want a definition, I go to a dictionary.
You, on the otherhand, are obviously a God, and we should bow to YOU method



Right. Doctors and disease experts should change their definitions to fit the uninformed and stupid notions of "common usage" of pandemic. And what the hell does "questioning the motive for the change" mean? Are you implying more conspiracy nonsense? Good grief.



Whatever floats your boat, pal.
I look for information and discussion, I get derision. Enjoy your superiority. Welcome to ignore

[Steelmage]

A more level headed report on the virus:

NYOB-sdw7u0


TB5-Y08qbjo

[gumboot]

Anyone else heard this report?

A member of the World Health Organisation (WHO) has dismissed claims that more than 150 people have died from swine flu, saying it has officially recorded only seven deaths around the world.

...

"Unfortunately that [150-plus deaths] is incorrect information and it does happen, but that's not information that's come from the World Health Organisation," Ms Allan told Australia's ABC Radio today.

"That figure is not a figure that's come from the World Health Organisation and, I repeat, the death toll is seven and they are all from Mexico."

NZ Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10569397)

[The Atheist]

Anyone else heard this report?

The WHO. (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2009_04_28/en/index.html)

[Oliver]

Anyone else heard this report?


Didn't heard that one before. But this one:
CNN: Regular flu has killed 13,000 since January (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html) :boxedin:

People are nervous about swine flu, but the regular flu kills 36,000 people a year in the United States.

[gumboot]

Didn't heard that one before. But this one:
CNN: Regular flu has killed 13,000 since January (http://us.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html) :boxedin:

Yeah but "swine flu" has another word in it, so everyone knows that makes it worse. See?

Spanish Flu
Avian Flu
Swine Flu
Awesome Flu

All, much, much more deadly than regular ole flu because of that extra word.

[Skeptic Ginger]

The evidence is that everyone outside Mexico has had very mild symptoms and recovered in a matter of days.When evaluating evidence you need to assess the significance and quality of it.

For quality, we really don't know the age pattern of fatalities in Mexico though more and more evidence it is an unusual pattern is turning up.

For significance, one cannot compare apples and oranges. The severity of disease in the US can't be compared to that in Mexico until we have relevant denominators. It's clear tens of thousands are infected in Mexico. We know that because officially it has been reported that the number of cases being counted are those showing up in hospitals. Meaning it is official only a fraction of the cases are being counted.

And the number of cases now being seen around the globe clearly indicates widespread disease in Mexico. That fact also rules out the hypothesis, maybe the infection in Mexico is mainly in young adults which would explain then a concentration of deaths in that age group. If it has spread on flight after flight out of Mexico, it is not going to be confined to a small group in Mexico. Remember, unlike SARS, the cases of flu showing up all over the world do not all have ties to one flight, one time at the same airport, or one hotel.

Also, the cases outside of Mexico are more likely to be getting anti-virals and getting them within the 48 hours. If the cases outside of Mexico weren't treated, the real nature of the infection might be more virulent.

That's OK because heck, we can get the meds. But if case numbers get too high, treatment availability is not certain. Though we have a better stockpile of Tamiflu than when bird flu first threatened us.


I am not interested in fearmongering. I am interested in science based medicine and science based assessments. That means ignoring the media's over stating the risk, but not going to the opposite extreme just because we know the media is hyping things.

Look where the evidence leads, don't try to fit it to an already established conclusion.

[Skeptic Ginger]

A more level headed report on the virus:

NYOB-sdw7u0


TB5-Y08qbjoSorry, Ron Paul is full of it. I didn't have time to hear the other video of 9 minutes of news. Halfway through it sounded like the same news being heard elsewhere.

As for Paul, to claim the government shouldn't be involved... So is he saying we should disband the public health system? He needs to travel to a few countries where the government is not involved in public health.

The 1976 flu vaccine could have gone either way and the decision made at the time was made on the best information available. Paul's opinion is like saying science based medicine is a failure because 30 years ago they were still taking tonsils out.

Then he goes on to say TB is worse. Sure, because the annual death rate around the world is high every year. That is reason to fund more public health, not evidence we should only fund the worst of it.

The man should be ashamed to call himself a doctor.

[gumboot]

When evaluating evidence you need to assess the significance and quality of it.

For quality, we really don't know the age pattern of fatalities in Mexico though more and more evidence it is an unusual pattern is turning up.

For significance, one cannot compare apples and oranges. The severity of disease in the US can't be compared to that in Mexico until we have relevant denominators. It's clear tens of thousands are infected in Mexico. We know that because officially it has been reported that the number of cases being counted are those showing up in hospitals. Meaning it is official only a fraction of the cases are being counted.

And the number of cases now being seen around the globe clearly indicates widespread disease in Mexico. That fact also rules out the hypothesis, maybe the infection in Mexico is mainly in young adults which would explain then a concentration of deaths in that age group. If it has spread on flight after flight out of Mexico, it is not going to be confined to a small group in Mexico. Remember, unlike SARS, the cases of flu showing up all over the world do not all have ties to one flight, one time at the same airport, or one hotel.

Also, the cases outside of Mexico are more likely to be getting anti-virals and getting them within the 48 hours. If the cases outside of Mexico weren't treated, the real nature of the infection might be more virulent.

That's OK because heck, we can get the meds. But if case numbers get too high, treatment availability is not certain. Though we have a better stockpile of Tamiflu than when bird flu first threatened us.


I am not interested in fearmongering. I am interested in science based medicine and science based assessments. That means ignoring the media's over stating the risk, but not going to the opposite extreme just because we know the media is hyping things.

Look where the evidence leads, don't try to fit it to an already established conclusion.



It's an interesting point, but the simple fact is the point I am making is entirely supported by the only concrete evidence we have. As more information comes in, it increasingly looks like the entire scope of infection has been exaggerated - see the WHO report.

I appreciate your point, but for example if we look at the cases in New Zealand all showed only mild symptoms, and all were recovering before they were put into isolation. Quite clearly superior medical treatment is not the reason for the mildness of their symptoms.

As Oliver's article points out, in the time that this flu has globally killed seven people, potentially as many as 150, the regular flu has killed thousands in the USA alone.

If anything the most notable thing about this particular flu is how little danger it poses. That and the name, of course.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Anyone else heard this report?Well the net echos have included it in a few pieces. I see the name shows up on the WHO webpage, but she is unconnected to the influenza branch.

Sounds to me like someone at WHO spouted off and it got printed. I wonder if she'll be reprimanded for bad PR?

Why is everyone trying so hard to downplay this event? Do you really think the Mexican government shut the country down over 7 deaths and a handful of flu cases? Isn't this news report as likely to be wrong as the ones reporting we should all get 6 months of food and lock ourselves in?

[Skeptic Ginger]

It's an interesting point, but the simple fact is the point I am making is entirely supported by the only concrete evidence we have. As more information comes in, it increasingly looks like the entire scope of infection has been exaggerated - see the WHO report.

I appreciate your point, but for example if we look at the cases in New Zealand all showed only mild symptoms, and all were recovering before they were put into isolation. Quite clearly superior medical treatment is not the reason for the mildness of their symptoms.

As Oliver's article points out, in the time that this flu has globally killed seven people, potentially as many as 150, the regular flu has killed thousands in the USA alone.

If anything the most notable thing about this particular flu is how little danger it poses. That and the name, of course.Well cherry pick what you want. My evaluation of the evidence comes from 19 years specializing in infectious disease with a focus on health care worker hazards, infection control and treating exposed workers. This is my area of expertise which I also make my living off being good at. What's your knowledge level in this field?

[gumboot]

Well the net echos have included it in a few pieces. I see the name shows up on the WHO webpage, but she is unconnected to the influenza branch.

Sounds to me like someone at WHO spouted off and it got printed. I wonder if she'll be reprimanded for bad PR?


I doubt it, if you follow The Atheist's link you'll note that the most current official WHO update has the same numbers she gave.


Why is everyone trying so hard to downplay this event? Do you really think the Mexican government shut the country down over 7 deaths and a handful of flu cases? Isn't this news report as likely to be wrong as the ones reporting we should all get 6 months of food and lock ourselves in?

I don't think people are trying so hard to downplay this event. I just prefer to trust the cold hard facts as delivered by the WHO. Mexico isn't exactly the paradigm of brilliant medical services. And given that the poor health, hygiene, and high population density makes somewhere like Mexico City a good place for a virus to spread, I think their precautions are sensible even if there are only such a small number of deaths.

Better to temporarily shut things down until you can establish how bad the threat is than to trundle along blithely until bodies are piling up in the streets.

[Oliver]

Yeah but "swine flu" has another word in it, so everyone knows that makes it worse. See?

Spanish Flu
Avian Flu
Swine Flu
Awesome Flu

All, much, much more deadly than regular ole flu because of that extra word.


Well, as Jon Stewart said the other day:
Most Mexicans still die due to the bullet flu. :D:boxedin:

[gumboot]

Well cherry pick what you want. My evaluation of the evidence comes from 19 years specializing in infectious disease with a focus on health care worker hazards, infection control and treating exposed workers. This is my area of expertise which I also make my living off being good at. What's your knowledge level in this field?


And how has all of that experience aided you in evaluating the evidence in such a way that you've decided seven confirmed deaths and about ~100 confirmed mild non-fatal infection is unusual and warrants anything other than "keeping an eye on it"?

[Skeptic Ginger]

I doubt it, if you follow The Atheist's link you'll note that the most current official WHO update has the same numbers she gave.I see that. But reporting that these are the only cases vs these are the WHO lab confirmed cases is not correct. So perhaps it is in how she stated it, or in how her comments were recorded. Either way, the interpretation is naive.

I just got the official update of confirmed cases in the US from CDC. Using your logic, we have more cases than Mexico. If you believe that I'd say your common sense is lacking.

Update: Infections With a Swine-Origin Influenza A (H1N1) Virus --- United States and Other Countries, April 28, 2009 (http://www.cdc.gov/mmWR/preview/mmwrhtml/mm58d0428a2.htm)As of April 28, the total number of confirmed cases of S-OIV infection in the United States had increased to 64, with cases in California (10 cases), Kansas (two), New York (45), Ohio (one), and Texas (six). CDC and state and local health departments are investigating all reported U.S. cases to ascertain the clinical features and epidemiologic characteristics. On April 27, CDC distributed an updated case definition for infection with S-OIV


I don't think people are trying so hard to downplay this event. I just prefer to trust the cold hard facts as delivered by the WHO. Mexico isn't exactly the paradigm of brilliant medical services. And given that the poor health, hygiene, and high population density makes somewhere like Mexico City a good place for a virus to spread, I think their precautions are sensible even if there are only such a small number of deaths.

Better to temporarily shut things down until you can establish how bad the threat is than to trundle along blithely until bodies are piling up in the streets.Trusting confirmed facts is one thing. Not knowing what they represent is another. Confirmed cases meet a specific definition. Probable cases meet another and suspect cases something else. We use these definitions for various purposes.

You think only confirmed cases has value in estimating the true number of infections. In the case in influenza, that is simply a false assumption. If you don't believe me, I don't care. I know my field of expertise.

[Skeptic Ginger]

And how has all of that experience aided you in evaluating the evidence in such a way that you've decided seven confirmed deaths and about ~100 confirmed mild non-fatal infection is unusual and warrants anything other than "keeping an eye on it"?I already posted the answer to this. Just in terms of the numbers:

"It's clear tens of thousands are infected in Mexico. We know that because officially it has been reported that the number of cases being counted are those showing up in hospitals. Meaning it is official only a fraction of the cases are being counted.

And the number of cases now being seen around the globe clearly indicates widespread disease in Mexico. That fact also rules out the hypothesis, maybe the infection in Mexico is mainly in young adults which would explain then a concentration of deaths in that age group. If it has spread on flight after flight out of Mexico, it is not going to be confined to a small group in Mexico. Remember, unlike SARS, the cases of flu showing up all over the world do not all have ties to one flight, one time at the same airport, or one hotel."


Think about the logic here. Is it logical to see cases showing up all over with no obvious direct connection if there weren't thousands of cases? Do you think pixies carried the virus from person to person? We can estimate the number of degrees of separation so to speak here. And we can also estimate that for every case found how many would not be.

As for the deaths. I give Mexican doctors a little more credit to know they are seeing an unusual number of fatalities. Do you think they are ignorant peasants or something believing in death clusters erroneously? Do you really think they'd even notice 7 excess deaths over the baseline they are used to seeing?

[The Atheist]

When evaluating evidence you need to assess the significance and quality of it.

For quality, we really don't know the age pattern of fatalities in Mexico though more and more evidence it is an unusual pattern is turning up.

If you're trying to find a pattern in seven deaths, I suggest you'll be wasting your time.

Read your own sentence at the start of your post - quality of evidence.

So far, the actual evidence is only startling for the lack of it.

I will, however, repeat that the tiny number of deaths from what was clearly an established outbreak, seems to indicate a very mild influenza. Which just happens to be occurring at the same time as an outbreak of.....

Influenza A, since at least a couple of people with A positive 'flu results here have come back negative for "swine" 'flu.

[gumboot]

You think only confirmed cases has value in estimating the true number of infections.

No, I don't. I think they're the only ones that should be used to determine the severity of the virus.

You can take the known infections, make determinations about the nature of the problem, and then extrapolate that out to suspected infections. That's fine. But it's a basic statistical mistake to use the data from suspected infections to determine the nature of the problem.

If the confirmed infections outside Mexico were severe in nature, or had comparable death rates to the Mexican infections, I would be very concerned. But they don't, so I'm not.

It's simply illogical to assume that the probable, suspected, and unknown infections are more severe than the confirmed cases.

[FSM]

Thank you skeptigirl for your information. I really appreciate it.

This just came out tonight from my daughter's school:

It is the recommendation of the Comal County Health Department that Comal ISD close all of its schools beginning Wednesday, April 29th until Monday, May 11. The New Braunfels ISD also is closing all of its schools for that time period.

There are at least three highly probable cases of swine flu in Comal County. Other cases are pending. So, out of an abundance of caution and because our school district needs to do its part to help stop the spread of infection, we are complying with the Comal County Health Department recommendation immediately.

The cancellation of school until May 11 also means there will be no extracurricular activities, such as field trips, and no meetings in our schools. For UIL athletic and academic events, get in touch with your child’s head coach or coordinator. The Health Department is asking people to stay home if they are sick.

Comal ISD employees are not to report to work unless notified otherwise by their supervisor. The Health Department and Comal ISD realize the closing of schools may be an inconvenience to your family. The health and safety of our community, our students and staff, is important. Monitor our Comal ISD website for updates and any other information we can provide.

Thank you. For more information, please visit the Texas Department of State Health Services website at http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/swineflu/default.shtm

Could you give me your opinion about what the risk is in my area particularly in light of the bold/italic part that I empasized above? I am not prone to panic, having been through several hurricanes :( so the information you give me will just be used to make sensible decisions about what sort of contact I should feel comfortable having with people.

Have I told any of you lately how nice it is to be able to have an internet hang out where you can just casually use and abuse some of the best minds in the world?

[JHawke]

reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE53R5OF20090428

"LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on
Tuesday declared a "state of emergency" for the state over an outbreak
of the swine flu that has killed 149 people in Mexico.

Schwarzenegger's proclamation allows the state to deploy additional
resources to the Department of Public Health and more quickly and easily
purchase equipment and materials."

My first post, hehe.

A few questions:

Is state of emergency the same as Martial Law? (according to wiki & some danish newspapers it is)

Is the Governor overreacting when he declares a state of emergency over this?

Why is California the only place a state of emergency has been declared?

Are the other states not preparing?

[gumboot]

reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE53R5OF20090428

"LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on
Tuesday declared a "state of emergency" for the state over an outbreak
of the swine flu that has killed 149 people in Mexico.

Schwarzenegger's proclamation allows the state to deploy additional
resources to the Department of Public Health and more quickly and easily
purchase equipment and materials."

My first post, hehe.

A few questions:

Is state of emergency the same as Martial Law? (according to wiki & some danish newspapers it is)

Is the Governor overreacting when he declares a state of emergency over this?

Why is California the only place a state of emergency has been declared?

Are the other states not preparing?



This is the first step in the machines' bid to conquer the world.

[The Atheist]

This just came out tonight from my daughter's school:

[I]It is the recommendation of the Comal County Health Department that Comal ISD close all of its schools beginning Wednesday, April 29th until Monday, May 11. The New Braunfels ISD also is closing all of its schools for that time period.

This is terrible.

It won't stop the spread, and it's a negative impact on the economy, which will get doubled up, because as soon as class starts again, the 'flu will whip through the kids and give it to their families.

Whoever thought that up has lost touch with reality.

[FSM]

And also, several days of having to watch Hannah Montana.

OH, the humanity.

[gumboot]

Remember when you asked if that hot girl would ever sleep with you? Or if you could borrow your sister's car? Or if you could have a promotion at work?

Remember that mocking condescending face that was levelled at you, as they arrogantly declared "If pigs flew!"

Well.

I bet their faces are red.

It's pay day, my friends.

[JHawke]

This is the first step in the machines' bid to conquer the world.

lol, no.

I understand the governors decision "allows the state to deploy additional resources the Department of Public Health and more quickly and easily purchase equipment and materials."

But why is this necessary? Other states didn't do it.
Denmark had plenty of Tamiflu even before the outbreak started.
(And we never really used flu shots over here)

Is it because California has no stockpile of Tamiflu ready?

And I still don't know if "state of emergency" is the same as Martial Law..?

[The Atheist]

[I]"LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger on
Tuesday declared a "state of emergency" for the state over an outbreak
of the swine flu that has killed 149 people in Mexico.

Fancy Arnie being wrong...

My first post, hehe.

A few questions:

Is state of emergency the same as Martial Law? (according to wiki & some danish newspapers it is)

Is the Governor overreacting when he declares a state of emergency over this?

Why is California the only place a state of emergency has been declared?

Are the other states not preparing?

In order:

Don't know

Yes

The governor is an imbecile who got voted in because he's a popular actor.

Others will follow.

And also, several days of having to watch Hannah Montana.

OH, the humanity.

Oh man, that's cruel and unusual punishment. Just think - you'll get to do it all again when they get the 'flu!

Edit - & welcome along!

You should go post in the welcome thread at the top of the main page so people can put you through the Skeptic Hazing CeremonyTM. (Wear your galoshes!)

[Steelmage]

Sorry, Ron Paul is full of it. I didn't have time to hear the other video of 9 minutes of news. Halfway through it sounded like the same news being heard elsewhere.

As for Paul, to claim the government shouldn't be involved... So is he saying we should disband the public health system? He needs to travel to a few countries where the government is not involved in public health.

The 1976 flu vaccine could have gone either way and the decision made at the time was made on the best information available. Paul's opinion is like saying science based medicine is a failure because 30 years ago they were still taking tonsils out.

Then he goes on to say TB is worse. Sure, because the annual death rate around the world is high every year. That is reason to fund more public health, not evidence we should only fund the worst of it.

The man should be ashamed to call himself a doctor.

First, Ron said (or indiciated) that the vaccine was made quickly, therefore there could have been mistakes made. The process to make vaccines must be done correctly or they do not work. He never said anything about science based medicine being a failure. He is talking about the government actions lead to something akin to overreacting and it is the government that failed. Boy, you sure go for a knee jerk reaction.

What about the first video, as far as I know was informing people, the news I see here seems to be scare tatics more then anything. This is from the BBC. About 7 minutes in, they talk about all the cases in other parts of the world the flu is mild. Only in Mexico it is not mild, they also talk about that the people who are dieing is under the age of 45.
I am reposting the video.

NYOB-sdw7u0

[FSM]

That last one was me, TA and you welcomed me real good about 2 years ago. :)


ETA: That sounded dirty, but really wasn't intended to be...

[JHawke]

Fancy Arnie being wrong...

In order:

Don't know

Yes

The governor is an imbecile who got voted in because he's a popular actor.

Others will follow.

[....]

Edit - & welcome along!

You should go post in the welcome thread at the top of the main page so people can put you through the Skeptic Hazing CeremonyTM. (Wear your galoshes!)

Thank you, I will :)

Thank you for answering my questions.

It looks like we can agree on this subject.

IMO it's stupid to declare a state of emergency in California over a flu that kills 1 out of 10(worst case scenario!), and can be treated with Tamiflu.

I hope you're going to be wrong about other states following his example, though.

This is only going to create more panick and cause the airline/travel business to loose more money.

"The governor is an imbecile who got voted in because he's a popular actor."

I wouldn't have put it like that, but I agree ;)

[gumboot]

For what it's worth, a State of Emergency and Martial Law are not the same thing. Declaring a State of Emergency gives the government the authority to activate a certain sequence of measures that otherwise they wouldn't be able to activate. Martial Law would be only one potential measure, and I would expect it would be far, far along the sequence.

[JHawke]

For what it's worth, a State of Emergency and Martial Law are not the same thing. Declaring a State of Emergency gives the government the authority to activate a certain sequence of measures that otherwise they wouldn't be able to activate. Martial Law would be only one potential measure, and I would expect it would be far, far along the sequence.

Okay, thank you for explaining it to me :)

[applecorped]

First US death - a 2 year old from Texas.

[FSM]

gah.

[shuize]

The origin of the outbreak has been determined:

http://imgur.com/27K39.jpg


Just as I suspected:

Mexican doctors say they believe a young boy who lives near a remote pig farm is the earliest documented case of the swine flu outbreak that has killed scores of people and spread across four continents.


http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/29/swine.flu.international/index.html

[Travis]

lol, no.

I understand the governors decision "allows the state to deploy additional resources the Department of Public Health and more quickly and easily purchase equipment and materials."

But why is this necessary? Other states didn't do it.

California has a larger population (36 million people) with much more contact with Mexico than most other states.

Denmark had plenty of Tamiflu even before the outbreak started.
(And we never really used flu shots over here)

Is it because California has no stockpile of Tamiflu ready?

California has a stockpile of Tamiflu as does the Federal Government. I'm not sure of the exact size of California's stockpile (it was at least enough to treat 2.7 million people as of last September) but the US Federal government has enough to treat 50 million people right now though they were in the process of acquiring enough to treat 75 million people.


And I still don't know if "state of emergency" is the same as Martial Law..?

A state of emergency allows the Governor to mobilize the state National Guard amongst other things but it does not mean the military is acting as a police force as it would under martial law.

[TjW]

Thank you skeptigirl for your information. I really appreciate it.

This just came out tonight from my daughter's school:

It is the recommendation of the Comal County Health Department that Comal ISD close all of its schools beginning Wednesday, April 29th until Monday, May 11. The New Braunfels ISD also is closing all of its schools for that time period.

[I]There are at least three highly probable cases of swine flu in Comal County. Other cases are pending. So, out of an abundance of caution and because our school district needs to do its part to help stop the spread of infection, we are complying with the Comal County Health Department recommendation immediately.
<snippage>

Could you give me your opinion about what the risk is in my area particularly in light of the bold/italic part that I empasized above? I am not prone to panic, having been through several hurricanes :( so the information you give me will just be used to make sensible decisions about what sort of contact I should feel comfortable having with people.

Have I told any of you lately how nice it is to be able to have an internet hang out where you can just casually use and abuse some of the best minds in the world?

I can't say for your area, but here in SoCal, a probable case is one that has symptoms consistent with the outbreak, and has tested positive for Influenza A, but hasn't been confirmed by the state lab as the particular virus.

[dudalb]

The State of Emergency allows the Guvanator to deploy some state resources without going through a lot of red tape and frees some funds that are reserved for emergencies.
He also declared states of emergency during the wildfires in SoCal last year for the same reasons.


The governor is an imbecile who got voted in because he's a popular actor.

Thanks for displaying your ignorance of California politics. You are entitled to have a low opinion of Arnie as a governor, but to say he was elected just because he is an actor is pretty insulting to California voters.
And I think your pooh poohing of the Swine Flu situation as something that is just mass hysteria is as bad as those who are acting like The Black Death has come again.
I am beginning to understand why The Athiest has a certain reputation around JREF.

[The Atheist]

IMO it's stupid to declare a state of emergency in California over a flu that kills 1 out of 10(worst case scenario!), and can be treated with Tamiflu.

Just one point here - a flu that killed 10% of the population would not just be a disaster, it would almost be the end of civilisation as we know it.

If 10%, the rest are going to be extremely sick and no infrastructure could cope, resulting in billions of deaths from disease and starvation afterwards. Never mind the banking crisis, commerce would cease.

A really disturbing pandemic would be one with a death rate over 1%.

[alfaniner]

More room in the job market for me, then. :o

[Almo]

IMO it's stupid to declare a state of emergency in California over a flu that kills 1 out of 10(worst case scenario!), and can be treated with Tamiflu.

Read The Great Influenza (http://www.amazon.com/Great-Influenza-Deadliest-Plague-History/dp/0670894737). It's about the 1918 flu pandemic. I think it will enlighten you quite a lot about the swine flu problem.

[The Atheist]

More room in the job market for me, then. :o

Yep!

Maybe that's what this is all about - solving unemployment.

Read The Great Influenza (http://www.amazon.com/Great-Influenza-Deadliest-Plague-History/dp/0670894737). It's about the 1918 flu pandemic. I think it will enlighten you quite a lot about the swine flu problem.

Not really - conditions are so different today from 1918 that any comparison is meaningless.

[BeAChooser]

conditions are so different today from 1918 that any comparison is meaningless.


Not necessarily - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/dec2206mortality.html

[gumboot]

Just one point here - a flu that killed 10% of the population would not just be a disaster, it would almost be the end of civilisation as we know it.

If 10%, the rest are going to be extremely sick and no infrastructure could cope, resulting in billions of deaths from disease and starvation afterwards. Never mind the banking crisis, commerce would cease.

A really disturbing pandemic would be one with a death rate over 1%.


Many nations throughout human history have suffered 10% or higher death tolls from war or disease or natural disaster, and yet have continued to forge ahead.

The real issue is not so much the death toll as the total number of infections, and the severity in those that don't die, and finally how rapidly the spread occurs.

If conditions are severe for survivors, infection rate is 100%, and this all occurs in the space of a year, yup that would be catastrophic. However if infection rates were low, survivors had mild symptoms, and the pandemic was spread over, say, 5 years... not so much.

[FSM]

So my region is pretty much shutting down and rumor and speculation about massive numbers of cases are spreading. It's getting weird just going to the post office and the grocery store-- people are wearing those goofy ass masks... which I start to covet after a while because they are so hideous and dorky that eventually they look cool.

I thought you guys would find this morsel particularly interesting: I have a friend who is very religious and very involved with church activities (and I am compelled to add, "I like her a lot, though, and she's very kind and willing to listen and discuss just about anything." :) ) She cancelled some church event for tonight and there was an uproar.

It sounded thus:

"We have nothing to fear. The flu will not be visited upon us by God during worship."

The cool thing is that she came and told me about the uproar and I smiled. She said, "Yeah. I know. I just told everyone that God may be fine with us worshipping but the local authorities have suggested that we close up."

I think she lost the battle, though, because she came in later looking grim.

I said, "Well, isn't there a story about Jesus, or St. John or somebody and a bunch of swine that were filled up with demons? They were Legion or something?"

"Yep. And they were driven off a cliff."

"So maybe you guys just need to get together tonight and pray to drive the swine flu off a cliff?"

She said, "Right," and rolled her eyes.

"Just don't breathe," I added.

:)

What a strange take on it though! These are not fringe people, these are pretty progressive religious people. They take antibiotics and get medical treatment under normal circumstances.

But bring a plague upon their heads and suddenly they backslide a few hundred years...

Weird weird weird.

[Richard Masters]

Sorry, Ron Paul is full of it. I didn't have time to hear the other video of 9 minutes of news. Halfway through it sounded like the same news being heard elsewhere.

As for Paul, to claim the government shouldn't be involved... So is he saying we should disband the public health system? He needs to travel to a few countries where the government is not involved in public health.

The 1976 flu vaccine could have gone either way and the decision made at the time was made on the best information available. Paul's opinion is like saying science based medicine is a failure because 30 years ago they were still taking tonsils out.

Then he goes on to say TB is worse. Sure, because the annual death rate around the world is high every year. That is reason to fund more public health, not evidence we should only fund the worst of it.

The man should be ashamed to call himself a doctor.

This time :shocked: I agree, that Ron Paul is off. His brand of libertarianism doesn't fly for me anymore (http://thespinfactor.com/thetruth/2009/04/28/the-need-for-consequentialist-libertarianism/).

[Skeptic Ginger]

If you're trying to find a pattern in seven deaths, I suggest you'll be wasting your time.

Read your own sentence at the start of your post - quality of evidence.

So far, the actual evidence is only startling for the lack of it.

I will, however, repeat that the tiny number of deaths from what was clearly an established outbreak, seems to indicate a very mild influenza. Which just happens to be occurring at the same time as an outbreak of.....

Influenza A, since at least a couple of people with A positive 'flu results here have come back negative for "swine" 'flu.For the sake of other readers here, and because I already wrote the same thing for another forum with the same misconceptions, I'll address this one more time. People who do not know what the significance of case definitions are have been using the WHO data wrongly to both accuse the WHO of a cover up, or to declare there is no real pandemic at all, depending on where the person with the misconception's preconceived beliefs take them.

Here is a link and some quotes from the "Interim WHO guidance for the surveillance of human infection with swine influenza A(H1N1) virus." (http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/WHO_case_definitions.pdf) Forgive all the bolding but I know lots of people only have time to skim posts.At this early stage of the outbreak of swine influenza A(H1N1) virus, the main aims of surveillance are the early warning of virus spread and laboratory confirmation of virus circulating in new geographical areas and countries.

...Member States where cases of swine influenza A(H1N1) virus infection have already been reported Until further notice, the National IHR Focal Points or competent national public health authorities should report to WHO all probable and confirmed cases on a daily basis. Deaths should be reported for both probable and confirmed cases. WHO will present the cumulative number of cases for global reporting back to Member States and the public. This activity will only continue for the initial period of data collection. ...

The purpose of reporting confirmed cases is not to tell the public or even the medical community how many total cases there are. The purpose is to identify confirmed spread to new areas of the world and for additional assessments of the severity and extent of the disease pandemic.

These indicators are used for implementation of various measures by the countries involved. An indicator does not have to mean total cases. It can indicate other factors. For example, you don't want to send your Tamiflu stocks to areas only identified by rumors. You may decide to quit treating exposed persons and only treat symptomatic cases for another example.

To make these decisions epidemiologists need data that is comparable from one source to another. That is why definitions are developed and used to collect and report data.

When the public misunderstands the purpose of certain reports, it leads to false conclusions somehow an outbreak is being covered up, or that it is really much less severe than the public is being told by the media hype. You have to understand what it is you are looking at if you want to draw the best conclusions about the evidence.

WHO just raised the pandemic alert level to 5. That suggests, 1) no cover up and 2) clearly there are more cases than the defined "confirmed cases".

-

[Almo]

Not really - conditions are so different today from 1918 that any comparison is meaningless.

Read the book and then say that.

[Skeptic Ginger]

No, I don't. I think they're the only ones that should be used to determine the severity of the virus. That can be true but it depends on who collects the data and whether or not their goal is to enumerate total case fatalities. You are assuming that is the goal of the confirmed case fatality numbers WHO is collecting and publishing. But that is not their goal with this report at this time. Do you have evidence that is specifically how WHO expects or intends to use their confirmed case count, to determine a complete, clear pattern of the fatalities?

Or might that not be feasible at this time and WHO is using the data to indicate other aspects of the pandemic?

If the confirmed infections outside Mexico were severe in nature, or had comparable death rates to the Mexican infections, I would be very concerned. But they don't, so I'm not.As long as the virus responds to anti-virals, I am not overly concerned. As for the pattern of severity, there's no way there is yet enough data to draw a conclusion either way.

Except we can conclude two things from the data so far. It doesn't appear the population has much immunity to this strain. And AFAIK, all strains of influenza ever seen have killed thousands of people.

It's simply illogical to assume that the probable, suspected, and unknown infections are more severe than the confirmed cases. Only if you don't understand the data you are looking at. Many probable and suspected cases can be presumed to be actual cases from what we are seeing. And that includes fatalities.

[The Atheist]

Not necessarily - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/panflu/news/dec2206mortality.html

Read the book and then say that.

The reasons for the difference are covered earlier in the thread, but briefly:

Antivirals did not exist.
Antibiotics did not exist.
Vaccines did not exist.
Medicine has come an awful long way since 1918.

Many nations throughout human history have suffered 10% or higher death tolls from war or disease or natural disaster, and yet have continued to forge ahead.

Not usually in a very short, ~3 month time frame. Not since the Black Death, I would guess.

So my region is pretty much shutting down and rumor and speculation about massive numbers of cases are spreading. It's getting weird just going to the post office and the grocery store-- people are wearing those goofy ass masks... which I start to covet after a while because they are so hideous and dorky that eventually they look cool.

I'm waiting for the first ones here - outside of the airport.

I have some sanding masks at home, so I'm pretty tempted to strap on to see what reaction I get.

WHO just raised the pandemic alert level to 5. That suggests, 1) no cover up and 2) clearly there are more cases than the defined "confirmed cases".

-

And more importantly, that sustained human-human transmission has occurred in two countries.

One more region and it's DEFCON 6!

[Skeptic Ginger]

This is terrible.

It won't stop the spread, and it's a negative impact on the economy, which will get doubled up, because as soon as class starts again, the 'flu will whip through the kids and give it to their families.

Whoever thought that up has lost touch with reality.Actually, I've been thinking about the benefit of trying to stop an unstoppable train. There is a benefit in slowing the progress of an influenza pandemic even if stopping it is futile.

You spread the cases out so as to not overwhelm the health care infrastructure.

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
But why is this necessary? Other states didn't do it. Yet. They will when the case numbers increase in their states.
..Denmark had plenty of Tamiflu even before the outbreak started.
(And we never really used flu shots over here)

Don't get out much, do you?
Influenza vaccinations in Denmark during the season 1999-2000 (http://www.biomedexperts.com/Abstract.bme/11715154/Influenza_vaccinations_in_Denmark_during_the_seaso n_1999-2000)RESULTS: In Denmark, 47% of the older group and 8% of the younger group were vaccinated against influenza. In the municipality of Copenhagen the acceptance rate was 66% in the older group, compared to 46% in the rest of the country. General practitioners vaccinated 69% of the older group and 66% of the younger group, 24% were vaccinated at a vaccination clinic, and 7% were vaccinated elsewhere. Half the 18-64 year-olds were vaccinated by their own GP, 33% at their workplace, 11% at a vaccination clinic, and 6% elsewhere.We don't see much better coverage here yet either. The public underestimates the disease risk and vaccine benefit.


...Is it because California has no stockpile of Tamiflu ready?No, and even if they didn't have any, they wouldn't need a declaration of emergency to get some from the federal public health stocks. These declarations are just formalities to set various control efforts in motion.

[Skeptic Ginger]

First, Ron said (or indiciated) that the vaccine was made quickly, therefore there could have been mistakes made.Nonsense. He's full of it. I'll be posting some stuff on the 1976 vaccine later.
The process to make vaccines must be done correctly or they do not work. Of course.
He never said anything about science based medicine being a failure.Analogy: (http://www.thefreedictionary.com/analogy)"Similarity in some respects between things that are otherwise dissimilar."
He is talking about the government actions lead to something akin to overreacting and it is the government that failed. More nonsense but it fits with what Paul and his followers believe so they accept it without evidence.
Boy, you sure go for a knee jerk reaction.If by knee jerk you mean I know this stuff well enough to know BS the second I see it, then you're right.

What about the first video, as far as I know was informing people, the news I see here seems to be scare tatics more then anything. This is from the BBC. About 7 minutes in, they talk about all the cases in other parts of the world the flu is mild. Only in Mexico it is not mild, they also talk about that the people who are dieing is under the age of 45.
...All the mainstream news is reporting this about the same. With lots of factual errors and misinterpreted data.

[gumboot]

That can be true but it depends on who collects the data and whether or not their goal is to enumerate total case fatalities. You are assuming that is the goal of the confirmed case fatality numbers WHO is collecting and publishing. But that is not their goal with this report at this time. Do you have evidence that is specifically how WHO expects or intends to use their confirmed case count, to determine a complete, clear pattern of the fatalities?


The above makes no sense whatsoever.

What the WHOs goal is in collecting data is irrelevant. It's an obvious fact that when assessing the severity of an illness you should only use confirmed cases of the illness and not speculative ones.

That's just basic statistical fact.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Just one point here - a flu that killed 10% of the population would not just be a disaster, it would almost be the end of civilisation as we know it.

If 10%, the rest are going to be extremely sick and no infrastructure could cope, resulting in billions of deaths from disease and starvation afterwards. Never mind the banking crisis, commerce would cease.

A really disturbing pandemic would be one with a death rate over 1%.While the initial death rate in some places hit with the 1918 pandemic was as high as 60%, the average when you looked across the broader population was closer to 2.5%.

But the death rate is only half the equation. Rabies has a fatality rate reaching close to 100%. You have to calculate the fatality rate using the attack rate. 2.5% of 40% of everyone on the planet is a whole lotta total deaths.

[gumboot]

Only if you don't understand the data you are looking at. Many probable and suspected cases can be presumed to be actual cases from what we are seeing. And that includes fatalities.


And how many "probably and suspected" infections have proved fatal outside Mexico?

[Skeptic Ginger]

The above makes no sense whatsoever.

What the WHOs goal is in collecting data is irrelevant. It's an obvious fact that when assessing the severity of an illness you should only use confirmed cases of the illness and not speculative ones.

That's just basic statistical fact.Gummy my friend, let's try another approach, because if you can discuss the finer nuances of the characters in Les Miserables, I know you must be a relatively intelligent person.

Why do you think the WHO would have raised the pandemic flu alert level to 5 based on only 7 confirmed fatalities?

[gumboot]

While the initial death rate in some places hit with the 1918 pandemic was as high as 60%, the average when you looked across the broader population was closer to 2.5%.

I think Western Samoa, as a country, probably got hit the worst - 90% infection rate and 30% of adult men died (22% adult women and 10% children). All in the space of a few weeks. Western Samoa appears to still exist. :)

Europe and the Black Death is probably the more obvious example of how much of a toll you can absorb without retreating to the caves.

That or Noah's Ark. :D

[Skeptic Ginger]

And how many "probably and suspected" infections have proved fatal outside Mexico?Did you miss my discussion of the fatalities outside of Mexico?

Key difference: the denominator. When we see as widespread of an outbreak outside of Mexico, only then will we have comparable numbers. Until then, the fact there are no fatalities outside of Mexico is meaningless.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think Western Samoa, as a country, probably got hit the worst - 90% infection rate and 30% of adult men died (22% adult women and 10% children). All in the space of a few weeks. Western Samoa appears to still exist. :)

Europe and the Black Death is probably the more obvious example of how much of a toll you can absorb without retreating to the caves.

That or Noah's Ark. :DThe Pacific Islanders also still see an incredibly high rate of tuberculosis disease, and measles probably caused near extinction of Hawaiians when first introduced. Measles & small pox killed as many as 95% of the native Americans when first introduced into the population.

So yes, there is often very unusual severity seen when populations lack historical exposure to new infections. Fortunately in this case, even though the flu strain is new, influenza has already resulted in natural selection of a population likely to survive for the most part, any new flu strain. For isolated populations that isn't always the case.

[gumboot]

Gummy my friend, let's try another approach, because if you can discuss the finer nuances of the characters in Les Miserables, I know you must be a relatively intelligent person.

Why do you think the WHO would have raised the pandemic flu alert level to 5 based on only 7 confirmed fatalities?


None of the WHO pandemic phases make any mention of the severity of the infection, nor its fatality level. This is something others have tried to get across to those complaining that "pandemic" is a scare tactic. Epidemics and pandemics are references to how widespread the infection is, and how easily it is being transmitted, not how severe the individual infections are.

You could have a common cold pandemic reaching phase 6 and never killing a single person.

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

That's the WHO definition. No mention of severity.

I think perhaps we're talking at cross-purposes here. I'm not talking about the severity of the pandemic, but the severity of the actual infections themselves.

I fully agree that we can expect the pandemic to be much more widespread than currently confirmed cases.

What I don't agree on is that we can expect the severity of actual infections to be, on average, more severe than the average for the currently confirmed cases.

In other words I'm not saying:

"I'm not worried because hardly anyone has it so I won't catch it"

I'm saying:

"I'm not worried because if I catch it I'm not going to get too sick"

[Skeptic Ginger]

...
In other words I'm not saying:

"I'm not worried because hardly anyone has it so I won't catch it"

I'm saying:

"I'm not worried because if I catch it I'm not going to get too sick"I got that part. I'm saying there ain't no data yet to compare to Mexico's and the WHO confirmed case fatality rate is not the data you seem to be relying on it for.

[Furcifer]

I haven't read this entire thread, but I'm curious if anyone here thinks they may have already got this virus? I got very sick in early February, probably the sickest I have ever been. I felt fine on the Tuesday, Wednesday I was sluggish and knew I probably had something. By Thursday I was full on sick, achy, coughing, sore throat, the works. Friday was no better and by that point it hurt to breathe, sore from the dry coughing. Normally I would have felt better by the Saturday, that's usually how it works. This time though was different, by the Saturday night I was so sick I was almost hallucinating, my chest felt like there was a Mack Truck parked on it and I had the worst headache ever. I didn't get off the couch all day except to get more water, which I probably drank close to 10 L of (nothing to eat). I could barely sleep due to the headache, the pain in my chest and sweating. When I did get to sleep I had a very vivid dream I went out to the bar that night. It was so vivid it took me a while to realize I hadn't actually gone out. It wasn't until Sunday night that I started to feel a little better. I didn't shake it until the Wednesday or Thursday.

I recall thinking to myself that had I been older I probably would have died from this flu. This was the worst and the longest I have ever been sick, by about 3 days. My entire class was sick with this at some point in January or February. Many for longer than a week.

I'm just curious if anyone else had a similar experience with a virus in the last month or so? I seriously think it many have been the same virus.

[gumboot]

I got that part. I'm saying there ain't no data yet to compare to Mexico's and the WHO confirmed case fatality rate is not the data you seem to be relying on it for.

No I'm relying on the symptom severity as reported by the various governments handling the infections, and the testimonies of those who have been infected.

[aerosolben]

None of the WHO pandemic phases make any mention of the severity of the infection, nor its fatality level.
It's not stated directly on the pandemic level site, but the WHO often mentions "serious illness" as a necessary bar for pandemic status.

See:
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/avian_faqs/en/
http://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Awho.int+%22serious+illness%22+pand emic

[The Atheist]

I recall thinking to myself that had I been older I probably would have died from this flu. This was the worst and the longest I have ever been sick, by about 3 days. My entire class was sick with this at some point in January or February. Many for longer than a week.

I'm just curious if anyone else had a similar experience with a virus in the last month or so? I seriously think it many have been the same virus.

Highly unlikely.

You may well have influenza A, which has been prevalent in the northern winter.

The bad news is that having that probably won't affect your ability to catch the piggy form.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Well, I blame mass production under "inhuman" circumstances for these types of threats. Meat should cost twice as much and in return, the Government should pass laws making sure that the animals grow up in a "happy&healthy environment" in return.


Just for the record, there is no evidence whatsoever that you can get swine flu from eating pork. Factory farming probably results in fewer people in contact with live pigs than traditional farming.

(And I'm a vegetarian!)

ETA: I just caught up with this thread and realized my point has already been made long ago. Nevermind!

[shadron]

More generally the threat of the flu which attacks young adults is what is known as a cytokine storm, which attacks those with the more hardy immune systems harder. This was a feature of the 1918 flu epidemic, SARS and H5N1 bird flu. It is suspected of possibly being the reason for the young deaths in Mexico, but as of now the CDC is wary of stating so, as it doesn't seem to be having the same effects elsewhere.

[slingblade]

I'm not worried for me, because I never leave the house or come in contact with people.

I am, however, a bit worried for all of you...

[paximperium]

We have scattered cases in the region I'm in...the work keeps piling on.