NYC teacher dies from Swine Flu

[Thunder]

this saddens me. once again, this flu is now more relevant in my world. if it can keep spreading to schools..it can start spreading through workplaces. I live maybe 2 miles away from one of the closed schools.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090518/ts_nm/us_flu_newyork;_ylt=AjiBjWBUR.t3dQ9rNd4wJrlZ.3QA



:(

[Quad4_72]

Usually a link to the story is standard procedure...

[Skeptic Ginger]

Assistant principal, but I suppose teacher vs principal isn't too relevant.

He was 55 and in ICU for quite a while. What is most bothersome is we have this false notion that the people who've died are 'different'. Either they were in Mexico so must not have had access to modern health care, or they didn't go in for treatment until it was too late, or they had some health problem 'we' don't have.

The truth of the matter is infections can kill anyone. It's sometimes just the luck of the draw.

[GreNME]

The truth of the matter is infections can kill anyone. It's sometimes just the luck of the draw.

I really hope you aren't a doctor.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I really hope you aren't a doctor.Why? The reason I know that is because I've seen it.

Do you think modern medicine as conquered all infectious disease if only one gets proper timely treatment?

[DC]

Dont get panic :)

Deaths from Flu in the USA alone = 7 per hour or 63,729 per year.

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htm

[Skeptic Ginger]

Dont get panic :)

Deaths from Flu in the USA alone = 7 per hour or 63,729 per year.

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/f/flu/deaths.htmLooks like Wrong Diagnosis found WolframAlpha (http://www.wolframalpha.com/). ;)

[Skeptic Ginger]

Here's an analysis on the contributing underlying medical conditions which the flu fatalities had in North America (predominantly Mexico).

Update. Influenza A (H1N1) Regional Report (16 May 2009) (PanAmerican Health Organization) (http://new.paho.org/hq/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1376&Itemid=1167)The median of the age was of 31 years old (range of 0-75), with a predominance of females (26 of 45 cases corresponding to 58%). The time elapsed from the onset of the symptoms up to the admission in the hospital had a median of 6 days (range 1-20) and to the time of the death of 10 days (range 2-33).

Approximately half of the dead cases were in previously healthy people 23/43 (53%). Preexisting conditions were present in 20 of the 43 cases studied (46%). The most frequent underlying condition was morbid obesity, no insulin-dependent diabetes, systemic hypertension, or a combination of the above in 12 of the 20 cases (60%). One of the dead cases was pregnant with 34 weeks of gestation that finished prematurely in caesarean section, with survival of the newborn. With regard to the administered treatments, 27 of 45 (61%) received antivirals: Oseltamivir (19), Amantadine (6), and Zanamivir (2). The median between the symptom onset and the administration of this treatment was of 8 days (range 1-26); 69% (27/39) of the patients received support with mechanical ventilation.

Most of the cases arrived with multiple complications, being the most frequent syndrome of acute pulmonary respiratory insufficiency in 27/45 (60%) and renal failure or multiple organ failure in 11/45 (24%). Bacterial co-infection was registered only in 3/45 cases. Finally, the most frequent diagnosis on death certificates was atypical pneumonia in 49%, followed by syndrome of acute respiratory insufficiency in 33%.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Here's a sad prequel to the NYC death.

Assistant Principal's Family Blasts City (http://wcbstv.com/health/swine.flu.nyc.2.1010855.html)Adam Weiner: Dad Had No Pre-Existing Medical Conditions...

His wife, who also works at IS 238, earlier said her husband urged the principal, Mr. Gates, to close the school last week. ...

Outside Flushing Hospital, Mitchell Weiner's 23-year-old son disputed news reports that his father's health was compromised by diabetes.

"First of all, he has no preexisting that would ... the only diabetes is myself. He doesn't have diabetes. He had gout a year ago," Adam Weiner said.

[ponderingturtle]

Assistant principal, but I suppose teacher vs principal isn't too relevant.

He was 55 and in ICU for quite a while. What is most bothersome is we have this false notion that the people who've died are 'different'. Either they were in Mexico so must not have had access to modern health care, or they didn't go in for treatment until it was too late, or they had some health problem 'we' don't have.

The truth of the matter is infections can kill anyone. It's sometimes just the luck of the draw.

This is true, but it does seem that this is not an unusualy lethal flu.

[Monketey Ghost]

*snip*
The truth of the matter is infections can kill anyone. It's sometimes just the luck of the draw.

That is the truth of the matter.

They can kill the healthiest high school athletes who otherwise shouldn't have died. They can get anyone, not just old people. It's a sad fact.

[Alt+F4]

Dont get panic :)

I teach in a public school in Queens and while not (yet panicing) there is growing concern.

What bothers me the most is Mayor Bloomberg's attitude towards the whole thing. First he says that closing the schools won't help because kids can just congregate in playgrounds and the such, then later in the same press conference he says that the upcoming long weekend will help slow the spread? So which is it?

In regard to the Assistant Principal that died, the city is feeding us the line that he had pre-existing conditions that made his case worse (his family denies that). So what if he had pre-existing conditions, the flu still killed him. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people in the metro area that pre-existing conditions that would allow the flu to kill them quicker.

[shuize]

What bothers me the most is Mayor Bloomberg's attitude towards the whole thing. First he says that closing the schools won't help because kids can just congregate in playgrounds and the such, then later in the same press conference he says that the upcoming long weekend will help slow the spread? So which is it?


The flu has shown its head in Japan and schools in two prefectures were ordered closed for the week yesterday. Of course, the media is having a field day. One of the stories that caught my attention, however, was one of the "Oh, what's a parent to do" angle in which the announcer, without a trace of irony, reported how parents were banding together and sending their kids to each others' houses for makeshift daycare. There were about 10 kids playing together in the small confines of the little house mentioned in the report.

I thought to myself, "If they didn't have it before, they do now."

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

Sad that someone has died in this case, but I grow weary of all the medical panics that seem to rear up every year or so. Hanta virus, ebola, avian flu, west nile virus, food poisoning, it's as if we're all going to be dead by next week. I'm just tuning them out now.


Besides, if we are going to get swine flu, what are we supposed to do? Shut down all everyday business? By the time somebody starts showing symptoms, they've spread the germs to everyone around them anyway.

[Undesired Walrus]

Why does this case merit a new thread? There are enough of them on h1n1 already. There's no need to make a new thread every single time you come across an article.

[Alt+F4]

Why does this case merit a new thread? There are enough of them on h1n1 already. There's no need to make a new thread every single time you come across an article.

Parky and I both live in NYC (I think he's in Queens too), so for us it's not about just coming "across another article". If there is no H1N1 where you live, and you don't feel concerned, then fine, there is no reason for you to post in this thread.

Why are you bothered that those of us living in NYC might want to discuss this in the "Social Issues and Current Events" sub-forum? I suspect your opinion might change if you worked in a school in Queens, New York.

[Undesired Walrus]

Hey, London here.

There is already a H1N1 thread here in SIACA, I think it would be simpler to post the article there. That's it.

[ponderingturtle]

I teach in a public school in Queens and while not (yet panicing) there is growing concern.

What bothers me the most is Mayor Bloomberg's attitude towards the whole thing. First he says that closing the schools won't help because kids can just congregate in playgrounds and the such, then later in the same press conference he says that the upcoming long weekend will help slow the spread? So which is it?

In regard to the Assistant Principal that died, the city is feeding us the line that he had pre-existing conditions that made his case worse (his family denies that). So what if he had pre-existing conditions, the flu still killed him. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people in the metro area that pre-existing conditions that would allow the flu to kill them quicker.

And in the average flu season the flu kills lots of people

[DC]

I teach in a public school in Queens and while not (yet panicing) there is growing concern.

What bothers me the most is Mayor Bloomberg's attitude towards the whole thing. First he says that closing the schools won't help because kids can just congregate in playgrounds and the such, then later in the same press conference he says that the upcoming long weekend will help slow the spread? So which is it?

In regard to the Assistant Principal that died, the city is feeding us the line that he had pre-existing conditions that made his case worse (his family denies that). So what if he had pre-existing conditions, the flu still killed him. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people in the metro area that pre-existing conditions that would allow the flu to kill them quicker.

I can unserstand your growing concerns.
especially when the people in charge say contradicting things.

the whole thing is confusing me.
i cannot understand why it is so much more dangerous than normal flue, that seem to even kill alot lot more people.

a few days or weeks it was all hyped in the media, then they lost interests and you nearly hear nothing about it anymore.

I suspect your opinion might change if you worked in a school in Queens, New York.

wasnt directed at me, but i think thats true. I would propably think diffrent :)

[Alt+F4]

And in the average flu season the flu kills lots of people

Very true, but (17) schools in NYC are never closed due to the average flu. This may be due to the media hype, yet I still have this feeling that we are being lied to by the mayor, the schools chancellor and the city department of health.

Based on my observations there are many more people sick then we are being led to believe. My 11-year old nephew has been home with flu since last Thursday and attendance at my school is down 10% from it's regular average.

[GreNME]

Very true, but (17) schools in NYC are never closed due to the average flu. This may be due to the media hype, yet I still have this feeling that we are being lied to by the mayor, the schools chancellor and the city department of health.

Based on my observations there are many more people sick then we are being led to believe. My 11-year old nephew has been home with flu since last Thursday and attendance at my school is down 10% from it's regular average.

Conspiracy! :eek:

http://image.grenme.com/thread/Pointy.gif

[ponderingturtle]

Very true, but (17) schools in NYC are never closed due to the average flu. This may be due to the media hype, yet I still have this feeling that we are being lied to by the mayor, the schools chancellor and the city department of health.

And this all seems to be emotional.


Based on my observations there are many more people sick then we are being led to believe. My 11-year old nephew has been home with flu since last Thursday and attendance at my school is down 10% from it's regular average.

The number of amerians being cited as ill is in the tens of thousands. Finding one case that someone died that you would not expect it not all unusual. I remember seeing a show about a woman who died because she kissed a man in a bar. She got herpies and it became herpies encephalitis which killed her in a couple of days.

The moral of this story is never kiss anyone ever.

[Alt+F4]

And this all seems to be emotional.

Some it might be. The amount of schools closed is now 22, due to high absenteeism. I'm sure many parents are keeping kids home as a precaution. I've been teaching for 15 years and this month I've seen the more sick kids in school than ever before and I don't mean the usual slackers, rather kids with fevers.

Kids are sent to the nurse's office who confirms they have a fever then they are sent back to class.

Today the major confirmed 4 H1N1 cases in the cities largest jail and the death of a toddler is being investigated.

[GreNME]

dun Dun DUN!!!

[ponderingturtle]

Some it might be. The amount of schools closed is now 22, due to high absenteeism. I'm sure many parents are keeping kids home as a precaution. I've been teaching for 15 years and this month I've seen the more sick kids in school than ever before and I don't mean the usual slackers, rather kids with fevers.

Kids are sent to the nurse's office who confirms they have a fever then they are sent back to class.

Today the major confirmed 4 H1N1 cases in the cities largest jail and the death of a toddler is being investigated.

Again 4 cases is meaningless, they stoped even trying to track down every single case weeks ago.

For the rest, this does not seem to be something that is not well explained for by confirmation bais.

[Skeptic Ginger]

This is true, but it does seem that this is not an unusualy lethal flu.It's a problem with lack of familiarity with infectious disease in general. Are you aware that 95% of the people infected with the polio virus experience little more than a mild GI viral infection or no symptoms at all? Before the vaccine, measles killed tens of millions every year world wide, but it infected almost the entire world's population at some point in their lives. So for the rest of the however many billion people lived on the planet at the time, it was not a deadly infection.

"Unusually lethal" is relative. Seasonal flu kills less than 1% of those infected. But if you have a strain that infects more people, then that small percentage of serious cases ends up a bigger number.

And when you have a small percent that are going to get very sick, it takes a lot of infections before you can actually evaluate what you have. The news media and the public were ready to call this a mild cold before we had anywhere near enough cases to actually see what the virus is going to do.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I teach in a public school in Queens and while not (yet panicing) there is growing concern.

What bothers me the most is Mayor Bloomberg's attitude towards the whole thing. First he says that closing the schools won't help because kids can just congregate in playgrounds and the such, then later in the same press conference he says that the upcoming long weekend will help slow the spread? So which is it?With a few cases, closing the schools can stop an outbreak. With a moderate amount of infection community wide, closing the schools is futile.

With widespread infection, closing the schools only helps if you determine either they are the focus of the spread, or you close every public place where infection is spreading at the same time. Sometimes, separating kids who cannot avoid each other's germs while adults can, is useful.

Closing schools can help to slow a pandemic down when hospitals become overwhelmed (we're not there yet).

In this case, I suspect Bloomberg was reacting to the fear that the now apparent seriousness of the disease has elicited. But closing the schools may not do much. Of course if half the kids are out sick, it's probably practical to close the school for a week.

In regard to the Assistant Principal that died, the city is feeding us the line that he had pre-existing conditions that made his case worse (his family denies that). So what if he had pre-existing conditions, the flu still killed him. There are probably hundreds of thousands of people in the metro area that pre-existing conditions that would allow the flu to kill them quicker.Half the deaths in Mexico were in people with no pre-existing medical conditions. The median age of the fatalities was 33.

Of the preexisting conditions, the most common were obesity, hypertension and non-insulin dependent diabetes.

Pre-existing underlying medical condition has been overrated, in my opinion probably as a result of reporters' confirmation bias. They are hearing "pre-existing underlying condition" and not bothering to find out what that actually means. "Mild asthma" becomes "a serious underlying lung condition". "A son with diabetes" becomes "the assistant principal had diabetes".

[Skeptic Ginger]

The flu has shown its head in Japan and schools in two prefectures were ordered closed for the week yesterday. Of course, the media is having a field day. One of the stories that caught my attention, however, was one of the "Oh, what's a parent to do" angle in which the announcer, without a trace of irony, reported how parents were banding together and sending their kids to each others' houses for makeshift daycare. There were about 10 kids playing together in the small confines of the little house mentioned in the report.

I thought to myself, "If they didn't have it before, they do now."Still, the smaller the groups, the slower the infection spreads.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I can unserstand your growing concerns.
especially when the people in charge say contradicting things.

the whole thing is confusing me.
i cannot understand why it is so much more dangerous than normal flue, that seem to even kill alot lot more people.It is killing a different demographic, it is out of season, and it is spreading quite fast, especially for an out of season epidemic. For the health care community, that makes it an unpredictable hazard.

a few days or weeks it was all hyped in the media, then they lost interests and you nearly hear nothing about it anymore....That's because the media expected instant gratification and when they didn't get it, they all prattled off to the next breaking story. :rolleyes: :D

[Skeptic Ginger]

.... I remember seeing a show about a woman who died because she kissed a man in a bar. She got herpies and it became herpies encephalitis which killed her in a couple of days.

The moral of this story is never kiss anyone ever.While this may be remotely possible, I suspect you are talking urban myth here. Most cases of adult HSV encephalitis occur from one's already existing infection. And over 90% of adults have HSV 1 which is the most common cause in adults.

[Skeptic Ginger]

....

Kids are sent to the nurse's office who confirms they have a fever then they are sent back to class.
....I'm very skeptical of this claim.

[casebro]

Didn't I see a blurb from CDC today saying that there are 100,000 case of SF now? My guess is that it's been doubling in a week, so a week ago there were 33,000 cases, and what, 23 deaths? It doesn't sound like the end of MY world.

[Alt+F4]

I'm very skeptical of this claim.

This is not second hand information. It is occuring in the school in which I teach, on a daily basis.

[Skeptic Ginger]

This is not second hand information. It is occuring in the school in which I teach, on a daily basis.
Sorry, Alt but there is no way a school nurse sends a child with a fever back to class. It makes no sense, and I've never seen it. So what makes you so sure this is common practice in your area? Are you taking the child's word for it? The lunch room gossip? What are you basing the claim on?

You're saying the child with a fever was sent back to your class? That would be malpractice for a school nurse, a pretty serious charge.

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

And this all seems to be emotional.



The number of amerians being cited as ill is in the tens of thousands. Finding one case that someone died that you would not expect it not all unusual. I remember seeing a show about a woman who died because she kissed a man in a bar. She got herpies and it became herpies encephalitis which killed her in a couple of days.

The moral of this story is never kiss anyone ever.


I saw that show. A weird case, that one.

I'm playing it safe on the kissing, just in case.

[Darth Rotor]

NYC teacher dies from Swine Flu
Guess he should not have eaten the pulled pork and ham sandwich.

Let's hear it for the Cameroon and Egypt, eh?

DR

[MattusMaximus]

I am a public school teacher north of Chicago, and we've had quite a few cases near my school district. A few schools just a bit south of here closed down a couple of weeks ago. No deaths, to my knowledge, in the Chicago area... yet - but I fully expect that sooner or later someone close will die of H1N1 influenza. It's just basic numbers, folks - just as skeptigirl said.

Having said all of that, I am not panicked in the least. If anything, I have a heightened sense of the sanitary conditions within my sphere of influence, and I've adjusted my habits accordingly (both personally and in my classroom). And I think the arrival of H1N1 has, in that sense, been a good thing for me and my students.

[ponderingturtle]

And when you have a small percent that are going to get very sick, it takes a lot of infections before you can actually evaluate what you have. The news media and the public were ready to call this a mild cold before we had anywhere near enough cases to actually see what the virus is going to do.

Is this that much worse, in the US than a bad flu year though?

It is easy to blow things out of proportion, see west nile virus. That was a big deal if you listened to the news, but had very little sickness or death associated with it.

Any sickness if enough people get it will kill some of them.

[ponderingturtle]

While this may be remotely possible, I suspect you are talking urban myth here. Most cases of adult HSV encephalitis occur from one's already existing infection. And over 90% of adults have HSV 1 which is the most common cause in adults.

It was one of those mystery diagnosis shows. The point is that with large enough samples rare things happen. It is likely that thousands have gotten the virus in NYC, weeks ago they stopped counting with an estimate of hundreds.

You will get the odd zebra when you get enough people infected.

[Skeptic Ginger]

It was one of those mystery diagnosis shows. The point is that with large enough samples rare things happen. It is likely that thousands have gotten the virus in NYC, weeks ago they stopped counting with an estimate of hundreds.

You will get the odd zebra when you get enough people infected.The diagnosis occurs. So do lots of very rare diseases.

The myth was the claim the woman caught it from kissing the guy in the bar. By the time people are old enough to go in a bar, 90% of the population has HSV1 already. And for adults, HSV encephalitis is more likely to occur from your pre-existing HSV, not from a new onset HSV. Multiply those odds together and then multiply by the likelihood of a TV show getting it right (vs fudging the story for drama or out of ignorance of the facts) and you get more likely odds of a meteorite striking you in the head than the woman in the story having got the infection from the luck of the draw kissing a guy in a bar.

[ponderingturtle]

The diagnosis occurs. So do lots of very rare diseases.


Bringing it back to the topic

If this guy had died in flu season would it be news?

[Skeptic Ginger]

Is this that much worse, in the US than a bad flu year though?There is no way at this point to know that. You can't get blood (evidence) out of a turnip seedling. The evidence suggests it will be like a very bad flu year but not a 1918 version.

There's yet another reporter confirmation bias article out today: Swine Flu Hits Sick People the Hardest: CDC (http://news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20090520/hl_hsn/swinefluhitssickpeoplethehardestcdc).

Well d'uh. But look at the first paragraph:Underscoring the belief that the new H1N1 swine flu is no more dangerous than regular flu, U.S. health officials said Tuesday that those hospitalized with the infection who have underlying health problems fare worse than otherwise healthy people who also have been hospitalized.Just who is underscoring "swine flu is no more dangerous than regular flu", the reporter or the actual CDC 'official'? The statement doesn't say anything about comparing swine vs seasonal severity. And I can't imagine CDC saying seasonal flu is not dangerous, unless it was in response to ridiculous panic over this epidemic.



It is easy to blow things out of proportion, see west nile virus. That was a big deal if you listened to the news, but had very little sickness or death associated with it.

Any sickness if enough people get it will kill some of them.West Nile killed a couple dozen people in the first 3 years in the US and 1,000+ in the next 6. I don't think that's chump change.

OTOH, it depends on what you mean by the perception of the risk. Recognizing a hazard, vs over-reacting, vs fear, vs careless disregard... these are all personal and subjective evaluations of infection hazards.

The news media never gets it right because they sell over reactions. It makes money for them to exaggerate then to claim there was some big scandal that resulted in the over reaction. And when public health officials try to educate the public to a hazard, people have pre-existing knowledge levels and biases that distort the messages.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Bringing it back to the topic

If this guy had died in flu season would it be news?It might have made the local news.

20,000 to 40,000 vehicle fatalities/yr (I forget the numbers we're at on that one) don't make the news either but kill 5 in one accident and you get a story. Get 2 people dying in a small plane crash and that makes national news. So making the news is not a measure of risk.

[ponderingturtle]

There is no way at this point to know that. You can't get blood (evidence) out of a turnip seedling. The evidence suggests it will be like a very bad flu year but not a 1918 version.

We don't have evidence for flu deaths for the past 20 years?


Well d'uh. But look at the first paragraph:Just who is underscoring "swine flu is no more dangerous than regular flu", the reporter or the actual CDC 'official'? The statement doesn't say anything about comparing swine vs seasonal severity. And I can't imagine CDC saying seasonal flu is not dangerous, unless it was in response to ridiculous panic over this epidemic.


That is the issue is how much of this is panic. Is this a serious medical issue, sure. It could also turn out to be more serious than it seems to be now.

West Nile killed a couple dozen people in the first 3 years in the US and 1,000+ in the next 6. I don't think that's chump change.

If we compare it to say flu deaths in the same time, it is chump change though.

OTOH, it depends on what you mean by the perception of the risk. Recognizing a hazard, vs over-reacting, vs fear, vs careless disregard... these are all personal and subjective evaluations of infection hazards.

Look at that summer about 5 years ago when there where all those reports of child kidnapping, no change in the rate, just a bunch of big news stories about small photogenic white kids getting kidnapped.

The news media never gets it right because they sell over reactions. It makes money for them to exaggerate then to claim there was some big scandal that resulted in the over reaction. And when public health officials try to educate the public to a hazard, people have pre-existing knowledge levels and biases that distort the messages.

So do you think the OP was panicing or not? He was demanding lots of major events to try to manage this outbreak. It does not seem to be that serious based on the numbers as far as I can tell.

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

When West Nile virus showed up here, it was suggested that the government kill all the wild birds, because it appeared that they were the ones the mosquitos were getting it from, and transmitting it to humans, and it's easier to kill all the birds than it is to kill all the mosquitos. That is the kind of hysterical reaction you get when things are blown out of proportion by the media. Everyone is convinced that if we don't seal ourselves away in bunkers, we'll all catch the latest disease du jour, and we'll have town criers doing the "Bring out your dead!" routine and mass graves and worse.

Some people will get sick from various diseases, and some of those will die. I doubt we'll all get sick and die.

I chuckle at those who tremble in fear about SARS and the flesh eating disease while smoking a cigarette. People are bizarre.

[Alt+F4]

Sorry, Alt but there is no way a school nurse sends a child with a fever back to class. It makes no sense, and I've never seen it. So what makes you so sure this is common practice in your area? Are you taking the child's word for it? The lunch room gossip? What are you basing the claim on?

You're saying the child with a fever was sent back to your class? That would be malpractice for a school nurse, a pretty serious charge.

I always call the school nurse after the student returns to class to see what happened. She always tells me that she called the home but there is no one to pick up the kid. Since the kid only has a fever it's better to return him to class rather than remain in the nurse's office with kids who are worse off (throwing up, coughing).

As I mentioned, I've been teaching in public school for a long time and have seen quite a few things that make no sense. Welcome to the world of government employment!

[Alt+F4]

When West Nile virus showed up here, it was suggested that the government kill all the wild birds, because it appeared that they were the ones the mosquitos were getting it from, and transmitting it to humans, and it's easier to kill all the birds than it is to kill all the mosquitos.

Well that because you didn't have Rudy Giuliani running things. When West Nile hit New York trucks drove around the city spraying everything with pesticides. Didn't like getting blasted in the face with bug spay, well too bad! No complaining in Giuliani's quality-of-life police state.

[Skeptic Ginger]

We don't have evidence for flu deaths for the past 20 years?We do, and it tells us we cannot predict this outcome on minimal data. If you wanted to extrapolate from the data (which most of us feel is not enough) you would predict this is the mild 'herald wave' and you can expect a deadly wave to follow in a few months. See the 1957 flu pandemic for a parallel example.



If we compare it to say flu deaths in the same time, it is chump change though.Relative comparisons are not in the nature of humans evaluating risk. By that standard we should all be doing what we can to drive Volvos, no one should be lacking a functioning smoke detector and the idea of not using seat belts or motorcycle helmets would be incomprehensible. And I should also mention, 911 and the Iraq war would be way down on the list of things to be concerned about.


Look at that summer about 5 years ago when there where all those reports of child kidnapping, no change in the rate, just a bunch of big news stories about small photogenic white kids getting kidnapped.The choir here repeats, the news media is not a source of valid information. I do believe the skeptics here on the forum generally recognize that.


So do you think the OP was panicing or not? He was demanding lots of major events to try to manage this outbreak. It does not seem to be that serious based on the numbers as far as I can tell.I would call the thread OP a human reaction to an unfamiliar risk.

[Skeptic Ginger]

When West Nile virus showed up here, it was suggested that the government kill all the wild birds, because it appeared that they were the ones the mosquitos were getting it from, and transmitting it to humans, and it's easier to kill all the birds than it is to kill all the mosquitos. Suggested by whom? Certainly not the knowledgeable public health community. You might be interested in the scientific debates over the spread of the H5N1 bird flu via wild migratory birds vs illegal commercial smuggling. It is quite a passionate debate, especially coming from those defending the wild bird populations against non scientific-evidence based witch-bird hunts.

Some people will get sick from various diseases, and some of those will die. I doubt we'll all get sick and die.

I chuckle at those who tremble in fear about SARS and the flesh eating disease while smoking a cigarette. People are bizarre.And some people will die of other causes.

Just who is it you think is trembling in fear of SARS while smoking and have you asked if they wear seat belts and have working smoke alarms? Risk perception is not limited to misconstrued infectious disease risk.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I always call the school nurse after the student returns to class to see what happened. She always tells me that she called the home but there is no one to pick up the kid. Since the kid only has a fever it's better to return him to class rather than remain in the nurse's office with kids who are worse off (throwing up, coughing).

As I mentioned, I've been teaching in public school for a long time and have seen quite a few things that make no sense. Welcome to the world of government employment!Well I hate to call you on this one but you make no sense here. Any school nurse in the real world would have the child stay in the nurse's office until someone at home was reached. Either you are mistaken or you have some incompetent aberrant nurse in your school.

I've been in the infectious disease field going on 20 years now and I work with some school districts. None of them have a policy such as you are describing.

Update on School (K – 12) and Child Care Programs: Interim CDC Guidance in Response to Human Infections with the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus (http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/K12_dismissal.htm)Students, faculty and staff who appear to have an influenza-like illness at arrival or become ill during the day should be isolated promptly in a room separate from other students and sent home.

You are essentially accusing your school nurse of malpractice. I suggest you bring this to the attention of the school you work for.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well that because you didn't have Rudy Giuliani running things. When West Nile hit New York trucks drove around the city spraying everything with pesticides. Didn't like getting blasted in the face with bug spay, well too bad! No complaining in Giuliani's quality-of-life police state.You seem to have a lot of concerns about the heath care issues in your community. I suggest you start with looking for a factual assessment of the risks and benefits of the decisions being made by officials around you and go from there. You may be letting your emotional reaction affect your evidence assessment.

MAYOR GIULIANI ANNOUNCES CITY'S 2001 COMPREHENSIVE WEST NILE VIRUS SURVEILLANCE, PREVENTION AND CONTROL PLAN (http://www.nyc.gov/html/om/html/2001a/pr138-01.html)If surveillance indicators suggest that the level of West Nile viral activity poses a significant threat to human health, the plan involves considering the use of pesticides that kill adult mosquitoes. Because green areas play a role in the amplification of the virus, they may be a priority for spraying in high risk areas.

DOH also plans to control mosquitoes in the Rockaways, Queens, if necessary. Products approved by the EPA and DEC would be applied by applicators meeting EPA and DEC requirements. (Products currently registered for mosquito control by EPA and DEC include the following active ingredients: resmethrin, sumithrin, permethrin, naled, malathion and piperonyl butoxide). Spraying will be closely monitored to ensure compliance with Federal and State guidelines. Additionally,

* The public will be notified of spray schedules in advance, which should allow sufficient time to take any necessary precautions to reduce pesticide exposure.

* Hospitals will be notified of the spraying schedule and information on the pesticide that will be used will be provided to physicians and other health-care providers.

* For quality assurance purposes, a private contractor, independent of the pesticide applicator, will assist DOH in assuring that the technical elements of pesticide application are conducted according to plan and pursuant to applicable regulations.

* DOH will monitor and assess control activities for any potential environmental and health effects through several measures, including pre- and post-spray environmental sampling and montoring pesticide exposure complaints received by DOH.

I'm not implying the government always does it right or that I trust them. But the most effective way of intervening is to start with a good assessment of the actual risk of both the hazard and the proposed abatement.

[Sir Robin Goodfellow]

I don't think that Health Canada or the provincial health minister were the ones calling for a bird cull, but rather the lay people who are in charge of policy decisions for the municipal governments and rural municipalities. They are as lead to hysteria as the general public, and rarely have the education to make reasoned decisions about such things. Plus politicians are always susceptable to public pressure from voters about the latest overblown health scare. Remember the ridiculous furor surrounding the "power lines cause cancer" absurdity? How many billions of dollars were wasted by governments at all levels, moving power lines and substations, relocating schools, needless risk assessments and so on? All fueled by hype from an uninformed media.


Really, it's the media that I blame for these yearly panics.

[Alt+F4]

Well I hate to call you on this one but you make no sense here. Any school nurse in the real world would have the child stay in the nurse's office until someone at home was reached. Either you are mistaken or you have some incompetent aberrant nurse in your school.

Did you know that NYC public schools are not required to even have a school nurse? This is the first year we have had one in about 8-9 years.

The school is too overcrowded to have a separate room to keep the sick kids in while waiting for a parent to show up so if you just have a fever back to class you go.

That's the reality of the situation.

[GreyICE]

Assistant principal, but I suppose teacher vs principal isn't too relevant.

He was 55 and in ICU for quite a while. What is most bothersome is we have this false notion that the people who've died are 'different'. Either they were in Mexico so must not have had access to modern health care, or they didn't go in for treatment until it was too late, or they had some health problem 'we' don't have.

The truth of the matter is infections can kill anyone. It's sometimes just the luck of the draw.
Oh ffs. Influenza is one of the most understood of modern diseases. It's not a Russian Roulette game. It is most frequently fatal in the old, the ill, those with weakened immune systems.

Sometimes it is just luck of the draw. No one 'deserves' to die of disease. But if you keep yourself healthy, go to the doctor when you feel ill, and keep your immune system robust, you're in good shape for survival.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Did you know that NYC public schools are not required to even have a school nurse? This is the first year we have had one in about 8-9 years.

The school is too overcrowded to have a separate room to keep the sick kids in while waiting for a parent to show up so if you just have a fever back to class you go.

That's the reality of the situation.You've offered no evidence other than your personal observation. I'm trying to politely say I think your observation is flawed without claiming you are knowingly ginning up your complaint.

Provide some evidence besides your personal belief here. Otherwise, I understand your fear, but don't believe your observations are necessarily correct.

[Skeptic Ginger]

... But if you keep yourself healthy, go to the doctor when you feel ill, and keep your immune system robust, you're in good shape for survival.Of course the odds vary with many different variables. But there is a misconception among many people that lots of things only happen to the other guy. And we have a natural tendency to picture the other guy with some qualities that exempt us from those potential outcomes. It's human nature to do that.

Everyone drives better than the guy killed in the crash, everyone's kids are too smart to drown in a pool or know better than to play with matches. But someone who says that has the kid who didn't meet that expectation. For all those certain people who know they drive better than the next guy, some of them are wrong. In fact, thousands of them are wrong every year. A couple thousand kids die of 'accidental' causes every year in the US.

Does this mean people should panic? Of course not. I merely suggest a healthy respect for hazards and at a minimum implement the easy inexpensive prevention measures. I find it bizarre that everyone doesn't have a working smoke alarm. But everyone doesn't. And people burn up every year because that simple little intervention wasn't needed as far as they were concerned.

For flu, all people need at this point is increased hand washing and knowing even some people in the best of health are still going to die from this infection. It doesn't have anything to do with panicking. It merely says recognize that fact and if you do find yourself sicker than feels right to you, don't ignore it because you believe your good health is all that you need to win the fight with an infectious organism.

[Alt+F4]

You've offered no evidence other than your personal observation. I'm trying to politely say I think your observation is flawed without claiming you are knowingly ginning up your complaint.

Provide some evidence besides your personal belief here. Otherwise, I understand your fear, but don't believe your observations are necessarily correct.

The fact that NYC public schools are overcrowded and don't always put students' needs first is not a secret.

Scores of city schools are bursting at the seams - with some as much as 200% over capacity, according to Education Department enrollment figures.

Public School 56 in Norwood (http://www.nydailynews.com/topics/Norwood+(Bronx)), the Bronx (http://www.nydailynews.com/topics/The+Bronx), is at 200% capacity. Nearby PS 8 was built for 800 students, but enrollment is currently 1,147.

"There's like 34 people in my class," said Sadri Kasniai, a third-grader at PS 56. "It's too many. There were supposed to be 29."

Frankie Grady (http://www.nydailynews.com/topics/Frankie+Grady) pulled his daughter out of the school after first grade because of the overcrowding. "She was in a trailer outside, and that wasn't acceptable," said Grady, 28. "It's terribly overcrowded and understaffed."

To deal with the overflow, PS 56 buses dozens of kindergartners to other schools. Teachers tutor students in the hallways.

As for the flu:

I'm at a school of about 420 in District 24. We've had 110-130 students out for the past 2 days, plus each day we've sent home at least 20 students with symptoms. That's about 1/3 of our population. That does not take into consideration the number of staff that have been out sick. This is stressful- we don't have a school nurse, and we are across the street from one of the closed schools.The Dept. of Health hasn't set foot in here- it's like we fell off the face of the earth.

The Department of Education has started posting daily attendance figures. Only about 25 schools are closed, in the rest of the schools kids come to school sick.

Links:
http://schools.nyc.gov/Home/Spotlight/closures.htm

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/More-Swine-Flu-Closures-On-Tap-Monday.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/education/2008/10/02/2008-10-02_new_york_city_schools_suffer_massive_ove.html

[Skeptic Ginger]

The fact that NYC public schools are overcrowded and don't always put students' needs first is not a secret.



As for the flu:



The Department of Education has started posting daily attendance figures. Only about 25 schools are closed, in the rest of the schools kids come to school sick.

Links:
http://schools.nyc.gov/Home/Spotlight/closures.htm

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/More-Swine-Flu-Closures-On-Tap-Monday.html

http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/education/2008/10/02/2008-10-02_new_york_city_schools_suffer_massive_ove.htmlNo ne of this addresses what you are claiming, that children with fevers are sent back into a classroom rather than staying in the nurse's office until a parent arrives.

Overcrowded and understaffed, I'm not surprised. Sick kids arriving at school, that's a given. Parents are reluctant to stay home from work with ill children. It's been a problem as long as I can remember.

But you have specifically claimed children with a fever presumably checked by someone in the school nurse's office have been knowingly sent back to your class because a parent was not available to get the child. I'm saying such a child would stay in the nurse's office until a parent came, not be sent back into a classroom.

You say it happened or is happening on a regular basis. I'm trying not to accuse you of exaggerating. That would be rude of me to do so. But without additional evidence, I'm having a hard time concluding you are not.