A method of winning the $1M by killing *only* 2 children

[Typicallucas]

Ok so what if someone claims to be a psychic detective (inspired by Skepticality #102) couldn't they win if they commit two unsolved murders with some sort of hidden evidence that would frame two other people and then solve them for the preliminary and final tests of the MDC?

If the planted evidence was convincing enough to convict the two patsies the MDC would be defeated... wouldn't it?

[Jackalgirl]

Ok so what if someone claims to be a psychic detective (inspired by Skepticality #102) couldn't they win if they commit two unsolved murders with some sort of hidden evidence that would frame two other people and then solve them for the preliminary and final tests of the MDC?

If the planted evidence was convincing enough to convict the two patsies the MDC would be defeated... wouldn't it?

You'd have to ask the folks at challenge@randi.org, but I don't think that this type of Challenge proposal would be accepted, for exactly the reasons you mentioned. The challenger would have to come up with a protocol in which controls were in place to prevent exactly this kind of cheating, and in which the results were self-evident (that is, requiring no one's judgement that the psychic did or did not successfully solve the case). I'd be interested in seeing someone come up with a solid protocol for psychic detectives (but I imagine that, for the purposes of the MDC, it would have to involve something other than murder).

[Typicallucas]

That makes sense.

[drkitten]

You'd have to ask the folks at challenge@randi.org, but I don't think that this type of Challenge proposal would be accepted, for exactly the reasons you mentioned.

While I'm sure the JREF would scrutenize a proposal for psychic detectives fairly closely (to prevent this sort of cheating), it has historically accepted protocols (or at least protocol drafts) that admit of this type of perverse incentive. The one which I'm remembering at the moment -- and only sketchily, I'm afraid -- involved a psychic meditating or something to lower the death rate at a named metropolitan hospital (in comparison to a control hospital across town) during a named week or something.

If I can persuade Dr. Crippen at St. Barts to help me, I can use St. Barts as a "control" and (ahem) artificially enhance the death rate between the first and the 8th of June. Twenty unexpected but unexceptional deaths in the ICU or postop ward might well do it ... and that's only three a night.

[remirol]

Er, I thought anything such as "predicting death" would not be permitted as a valid claim, because it gives the applicant too much incentive to make the prediction come true?

[scratchy]

We also have to take into account the reaction from the police when a psychic solves a crime in the clear cut manner that the challenge would require. They will not let it pass without investigating the psychics possible connection to the case.

[Jackalgirl]

While I'm sure the JREF would scrutenize a proposal for psychic detectives fairly closely (to prevent this sort of cheating), it has historically accepted protocols (or at least protocol drafts) that admit of this type of perverse incentive. The one which I'm remembering at the moment -- and only sketchily, I'm afraid -- involved a psychic meditating or something to lower the death rate at a named metropolitan hospital (in comparison to a control hospital across town) during a named week or something.

If I can persuade Dr. Crippen at St. Barts to help me, I can use St. Barts as a "control" and (ahem) artificially enhance the death rate between the first and the 8th of June. Twenty unexpected but unexceptional deaths in the ICU or postop ward might well do it ... and that's only three a night.

This is a good point. I wonder what would be the best way to control for this? Perhaps you could do something like establish a pool of control hospitals and a target hospital, the target hospital to experience on average a statistically-significant reduction in deaths over a period as compared to the average of the control hospitals...or have a control hospital chosen in such a way that its identity is blinded to the challenger and the test administrator? (While preventing the target hospital from being chosen as the control hospital, of course.)

I think something like this would make such shenanigans a lot less likely; you might be able to find one, or perhaps two, "Dr.-" or "Nurse Deaths", but I imagine it would be a lot harder to find enough people willing to commit murder to cover a larger (or potentially random) number of control hospital(s)...

What do you think?

[drkitten]

This is a good point. I wonder what would be the best way to control for this?

Well, the simplest way would be to implement the rule remirol suggested -- no protocols involving human death.

Perhaps you could do something like establish a pool of control hospitals and a target hospital, the target hospital to experience on average a statistically-significant reduction in deaths over a period as compared to the average of the control hospitals...or have a control hospital chosen in such a way that its identity is blinded to the challenger and the test administrator? (While preventing the target hospital from being chosen as the control hospital, of course.)

... or comparing death rate to long-term seasonally adjusted averages among the control hospital pool.

But this illustrates a general problem of the unknown confederate. It doesn't have to be "deaths." It could, for example, be "admissions for flu," and my confederate just happens to have several vials of influenza virus he can spread at strategic locations. It could be "auto accident rate" and my confederate is willing to stage hit-and-run accidents all over town.

As far as I can tell, any protocol that involves things outside of the immediate location (in time and place) of the test itself is subject to this.

[Horatius]

I'd be interested in seeing someone come up with a solid protocol for psychic detectives



It would be expensive, but I'd suggest sequestering the psychic for several months, and then having them work on cases that only occurred well after they were sequestered. Also, have them work in some area distant from there usual areas of activity, so as to lower the chance they have pre-arranged a murder with an accomplice.

[chillzero]

It would be expensive, but I'd suggest sequestering the psychic for several months, and then having them work on cases that only occurred well after they were sequestered.

Did you mean 'after' here?
Surely that leaves opportunity to set something up?

[drkitten]

Did you mean 'after' here?
Surely that leaves opportunity to set something up?

On the other hand, "before" leaves even more opportunity not only to set something up, but to actively participate -- "before" doesn't even require a confederate, as the OP pointed out.

[chillzero]

On the other hand, "before" leaves even more opportunity not only to set something up, but to actively participate -- "before" doesn't even require a confederate, as the OP pointed out.

I understand that, but I don't think 'after' provides a good alternative.

[Wolfman]

I think that sequestering a psychic, and then letting the JREF choose the murder(s) that are to be investigated, at any location in the country in question, would be an adequate safeguard. Unless the psychic really is psychic, even if they did have a partner stage a murder, the odds that the JREF would choose that murder to be investigated would be incredibly small. Not that I'm in favor of this idea...just saying that I think it could be set up fairly easily to be pretty much tamper-proof in terms of staging murders.

This wouldn't stop a more demented individual from having an associate commit a murder anyway, according to a pre-arranged method...and then regardless of the murder chosen by JREF, the "psychic" gets "images" of that murder. So JREF could set up a protocol that would prevent winning by such a means (ie. "solving" a murder not chosen by JREF does not qualify); but there would be no way of preventing more deluded/perverse individuals from trying to do it. Thus, a solid rationale for not allowing such challenges, period.

[Horatius]

Did you mean 'after' here?
Surely that leaves opportunity to set something up?



I meant "after the sequestering started, but they're still sequestered when it happens." That is, sequester them for, say, a full year. At the 6-month point, choose a couple of cases that have just happened as investigations.

[Toke]

We also have to take into account the reaction from the police when a psychic solves a crime in the clear cut manner that the challenge would require. They will not let it pass without investigating the psychics possible connection to the case.

Yes that would make any rational police force rather suspicius.

[Typicallucas]

I meant "after the sequestering started, but they're still sequestered when it happens." That is, sequester them for, say, a full year. At the 6-month point, choose a couple of cases that have just happened as investigations.

What do you mean by sequester? Like remain in captivity for 6 months?

[BTMO]

Wouldn't it just be easier to kidnap two kids and demand a ransom? And not have any sort of publicity about it at all?

Sorry - but a psychic challenge leading to two small bodies should lead to all sorts of questions being asked of the person doing the leading.

I can't imagine police anywhere simply accepting "I am a psychic" without a lot of investigation into exactly how psychic someone is, or looking at evidence linking the killer to the "psychic".

[Random]

I think that sequestering a psychic, and then letting the JREF choose the murder(s) that are to be investigated, at any location in the country in question, would be an adequate safeguard. Unless the psychic really is psychic, even if they did have a partner stage a murder, the odds that the JREF would choose that murder to be investigated would be incredibly small. Not that I'm in favor of this idea...just saying that I think it could be set up fairly easily to be pretty much tamper-proof in terms of staging murders.

Are you familiar with the show "Psyche"? Having a psychic show up to investigate a crime in an area he is unfamiliar with does not preclude the possibility of the psychic determining the killer through mundane means and then "solving" the crime through paranormal abilities. Almost any challenge for a psychic detective will therefore have to be set up in a lab or something.

[rjh01]

They did a show in Australia where psychics tried to find missing children. Richard Saunders was involved. There is a thread somewhere here about it. That could be duplicated.

[BTMO]

They did a show in Australia where psychics tried to find missing children. Richard Saunders was involved. There is a thread somewhere here about it. That could be duplicated.

Let me guess...

No missing children were found?

[rjh01]

Actually I think one or two did find the missing children, by luck and brute force. See these threads for more detail

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=120919
http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=115415

[BTMO]

Actually I think one or two did find the missing children, by luck and brute force. See these threads for more detail

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=120919
http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=115415

Oh!

Sorry - I thought that they were *real* missing children...

I didn't realise it was a tv set up.

[Wolfman]

Are you familiar with the show "Psyche"? Having a psychic show up to investigate a crime in an area he is unfamiliar with does not preclude the possibility of the psychic determining the killer through mundane means and then "solving" the crime through paranormal abilities. Almost any challenge for a psychic detective will therefore have to be set up in a lab or something.
...and did you not get that I was saying that, even if in an entirely controlled situation, this would still be a bad idea? None of these controls prevent such a person (and/or associate) from killing someone anyway, and then 'getting readings' of that crime. Yeah, it would mean they wouldn't win the one million dollars, but many of the people making these claims aren't noted for either their logic or their sanity.

I just don't see much point in discussing possible 'controls'. You can put controls to prevent fraud in winning the million dollars; but you can't put controls to prevent someone killing someone else in an effort to win the million dollars. And that, in the end, is the most important issue.

Just envision the publicity JREF would make if they were to authorize such a claim, and then someone was murdered. Saying, "Oh, but they didn't do it within the set parameters, so they don't win the million dollars" wouldn't really cut it.

[Horatius]

What do you mean by sequester? Like remain in captivity for 6 months?



Essentially, yes, but "captivity" is the wrong word, since it would be voluntary.

I did say it would be expensive!

[drkitten]

I think that sequestering a psychic, and then letting the JREF choose the murder(s) that are to be investigated, at any location in the country in question, would be an adequate safeguard. Unless the psychic really is psychic, even if they did have a partner stage a murder, the odds that the JREF would choose that murder to be investigated would be incredibly small. Not that I'm in favor of this idea...just saying that I think it could be set up fairly easily to be pretty much tamper-proof in terms of staging murders.

Hardly tamper-proof. I, as the demented psychic, explain that I can only solve murders in areas where the stars have suitable cosmic rootedness, which basically means that only murders in this area are valid for the challenge. Being suitably demented, I pick Boise, Idaho, the fourth largest city in the Pacific Northwest.

Which has about ten murders a year. If my informant is willing to set up and commit two murders, I have a better than 10% chance of having that murder selected by the JREF as the one to investigate.

Those are betting odds, especially for a million bucks.

[MattC]

Hardly tamper-proof. I, as the demented psychic, explain that I can only solve murders in areas where the stars have suitable cosmic rootedness, which basically means that only murders in this area are valid for the challenge. Being suitably demented, I pick Boise, Idaho, the fourth largest city in the Pacific Northwest.

Which has about ten murders a year. If my informant is willing to set up and commit two murders, I have a better than 10% chance of having that murder selected by the JREF as the one to investigate.

Those are betting odds, especially for a million bucks.

This is not exactly the best scheme to win the million, murder by nature is an expensive and difficult project to mount if you (or your hired gun) intend to actually escape afterward. The idea of being able to hide the bodies so well that none of the people looking for them (local police, any federal agency, search parties, so on) could find them (these methods normally involves speeding up the state of decomposition or splitting the corpse) is naturally opposed to any later discovery of the body, through psychic means or otherwise. Those few people capable of arranging and carrying out such an activity do not work cheaply, and do not operate on a Koenig-esque "when I win" pay scale.

A better way to do it would be to use an abduction rather than a murder, then "find the person" later on. Abductions are infinitely easier to perform, particularly on certain classes of victims, and come cheaper to boot. In particular if someone was really trying to win the money through violently criminal means, finding an abduction victim would be the simplest course to take in both logistics and required funds.

~ Matt

[Wolfman]

Hardly tamper-proof. I, as the demented psychic, explain that I can only solve murders in areas where the stars have suitable cosmic rootedness, which basically means that only murders in this area are valid for the challenge. Being suitably demented, I pick Boise, Idaho, the fourth largest city in the Pacific Northwest.

Which has about ten murders a year. If my informant is willing to set up and commit two murders, I have a better than 10% chance of having that murder selected by the JREF as the one to investigate.

Those are betting odds, especially for a million bucks.
I am curious here.

When I say -- twice -- that the issue of whether or not a tamper-proof system can be put in place or not is irrelevant, since it only prevents people from falsely claiming the million dollars, not from committing murder to try to win the million dollars...

...does it appear on other peoples' screens as invisible text? Is that why people keep debating me about this?

[drkitten]

When I say -- twice -- that the issue of whether or not a tamper-proof system can be put in place or not is irrelevant, since it only prevents people from falsely claiming the million dollars, not from committing murder to try to win the million dollars...

...does it appear on other peoples' screens as invisible text? Is that why people keep debating me about this?


No. I, at least, am disagreeing with you that it would at all prevent people from falsely claiming the million dollars.

[remirol]

It seems my memory was correct, and this may be moot. From the application (http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge/challenge-application.html):

JREF will also NOT test claims that are likely to cause injury of any sort, such as those involving the withholding of air, food or water, or the use of illicit materials, drugs, or dangerous devices.

Any claim involving predicted murder or any other death would provide the claimant a million-dollar incentive to arrange that death. I do not believe JREF wants to be associated with such activities, even behind the extensive legal disclaimers.

[Travis]

This reminds me of a screenplay I once worked on where a local psychic reader has a dream about an abduction and murder of a child taking place. She describes the details to her husband and then a missing child in the neighborhood seems to match her dream and she works with the police using her dream as a template and does find the body of the child but, the twist, is that the murderer was her husband who, hearing the dream, went out and found a child and conducted the murder as was described in the dream so that his wife could solve the case thus becoming famous and rich.

[DevilsAdvocate]

It seems my memory was correct, and this may be moot. From the application (http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge/challenge-application.html):

JREF will also NOT test claims that are likely to cause injury of any sort, such as those involving the withholding of air, food or water, or the use of illicit materials, drugs, or dangerous devices.

Any claim involving predicted murder or any other death would provide the claimant a million-dollar incentive to arrange that death. I do not believe JREF wants to be associated with such activities, even behind the extensive legal disclaimers.I'm quite sure the original post meant that the Applicant would first MURDER two people, then later APPLY for the MDC. This is what the OP says: “commit…murders…and then solve them for the preliminary and final tests of the MDC”.

Could someone win the MDC in this way? YES!

The MDC is a challenge for people that are expected to be frauds. Controls are set for the tests. An Applicant may be able to still achieve their fraud despite the controls. JREF can do everything possible to stop that from happening, but there is no guaranty.

Of course a “psychic” who “finds” a body basically become the number one suspect. With any other supporting evidence, that “psychic” is going to jail.

It would not be unreasonable to have the a final challenge to require that the Applicant find a body for a case that the Applicant could not have been a part of (a murder before the Applicant was born, a foreign country, etc.).

So, it is possible. But unlikely. And the potential penalties greatly outweigh the potential benefits. ;)

[MattC]

I'm quite sure the original post meant that the Applicant would first MURDER two people, then later APPLY for the MDC. This is what the OP says: “commit…murders…and then solve them for the preliminary and final tests of the MDC”.

Could someone win the MDC in this way? YES!


How do you propose to commit the murders in such a way that allows you to "solve" them later (however you may choose to define the term) while at the same time ensuring that someone else won't solve the case sooner?

~ Matt

[Typicallucas]

How do you propose to commit the murders in such a way that allows you to "solve" them later (however you may choose to define the term) while at the same time ensuring that someone else won't solve the case sooner?

~ Matt

Step 1, be a criminal mastermind. Step 2, plant evidence & frame two patsies using your evil talents. Step 3, apply for the MDC.

Why are you arguing about this detail?

[MattC]

Step 1, be a criminal mastermind. Step 2, plant evidence & frame two patsies using your evil talents. Step 3, apply for the MDC.

Why are you arguing about this detail?

I have to keep bringing it up or some lesser criminal mastermind will get the idea that such a scheme can be accomplished by just anyone.

[Typicallucas]

Sounds more like you were fishing for tips :)

[RemieV]

Keep in mind that Connie Sonne's claim to the media was the ability to find Madeleine McCann, and that we haven't touched that claim at all.

[DevilsAdvocate]

I have to keep bringing it up or some lesser criminal mastermind will get the idea that such a scheme can be accomplished by just anyone.I don't think I implied in any way that "some lesser criminal" or "just anyone" could pull off such a scheme. In fact, I think I implied the exact opposite in the exact same post that you quoted.

Of course a “psychic” who “finds” a body basically become the number one suspect. With any other supporting evidence, that “psychic” is going to jail.

So, it is possible. But unlikely. And the potential penalties greatly outweigh the potential benefits.

I hope the lesser criminal masterminds of the world read the last half of my post, but I guess some lesser criminal masterminds are more lesser than others.

For those very lesser criminal masterminds (or shucks, even for all criminal masterminds; or jeepers, even all criminals; or heck, even everybody): Don't kill people and pretend to be a psychic. Or better: Don't kill people. Don't pretend to be a psychic.

I hope that information helps the world have lesser lesser criminal masterminds getting an idea that can be accomplished by just anyone. Because it can’t. The idea. Not the information. I hope that is clear. :D

[NoZed Avenger]

If I made the two children merely slightly ill, could I get $75,000 ?