Time stamped prediction [Archive]

Ratman_tf

30th November 2003, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

Thank you for stepping up to the plate, Lucianarchy. Any further information you can provide before 2-14-04 will be appreciated too. And help to greatly clarify your predicion and reduce the possibility of it being seen as a guess.

What should we count as an 'attack'? You mention 'devestation' but that's still pretty vague. Can you be more specific? (A town? A building? A toy box? A bookshelf? A continent? The moon?)

El Greco

1st December 2003, 12:53 AM

Heart attack ? Shark attack ? Shaq attack ?

El Greco

1st December 2003, 12:55 AM

Shakatak (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/stores/artist/glance/-/145620/ref=pd_ap_sr/102-7211448-6049738) ?

Rolfe

1st December 2003, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by Ed
What do you do, sit around and discuss homeopathy texts?:D Sit around and discuss whichever SF or fantasy author we decided on for this month. And sit on me hard if I even mention homoeopathy.

Rolfe.

Ersby

1st December 2003, 04:23 AM

You know, this strikes me of the kind of slameless profiteering of other peoples suffering than Lucian himself derided when he said:

orginally posted by Lucian, 11 Nov 03

you sick f**ks are now picking over the corpse of the victim.

You have just destroyed the very thin thread your supposition based argument hung on, by vomitting your insentive and mean spirited psychologicial issues all over it.

But no doubt Lucian will come up with some excuse to absolve himself from any untoward conclusions.

Ho hum.

Groo

1st December 2003, 04:58 AM

I am still waiting for a prediction of the lottery numbers... (I could use some extra money)

Dragonrock

1st December 2003, 06:06 AM

I am going to modify Luci prediction and add that December 14th 2003 and January 14th 2004 will not be as dramatic. If Luci's prediction is more accurate for the 14th of February 2004 then it would be for both December and January then perhaps there is something to what was said.

El Greco

1st December 2003, 06:45 AM

Originally posted by Dragonrock
I am going to modify Luci prediction and add that December 14th 2003 and January 14th 2004 will not be as dramatic.

I don't know about December 14th, January 14th and February 14th, but March 14th is going to be tragically dramatic: It's my birthday.

Dragonrock

1st December 2003, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by El Greco

I don't know about December 14th, January 14th and February 14th, but March 14th is going to be tragically dramatic: It's my birthday.

I'm sure there are a few skepchicks who would be willing to jump out of a cake for you.

Suezoled

1st December 2003, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by Rolfe
Sit around and discuss whichever SF or fantasy author we decided on for this month. And sit on me hard if I even mention homoeopathy.

Rolfe.

Piers Anthony. Nice guy. Emotional. Strong beliefs. A bit of a Lolita complex, I think. ;)

1st December 2003, 07:10 AM

I knew this was familiar.

Allow me to refresh your memories:

Greetings to ALL out YONDER

I know this is no surprise that Thursday is once again upon us---From Thursday to Thursday. Actually it is Friday here when it is Thursday in the USA as if you did not know that.

My weekly reminder of my prediction ----Now you out yonder can never say I did not tell you of my intentions in ADVANCE-----

There is one thing about the prophecies recorded in the Scriptures they were always told in advance EVEN though it was some time in advance.

Habakkuk 1:5--“Look at the nations and watch— and be utterly amazed.
For I am going to do something in your days that you would not believe,
even if you were told.

So now you have been told

Regards
Paul

The reference is irrelevant, Paul was consistant in his Woo.

I predict dancing.

voidx

1st December 2003, 08:32 AM

If it happens in a country that does not follow the gregarian calendar does it still count? Do you have an automatic convert-to-grego module in your magical head?

Michael Redman

1st December 2003, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. You're going to propose to your sweetie, aren't you?

Skeptical Greg

1st December 2003, 09:59 AM

1. What besides an attack, do you consider to be like an attack?

2. How can we begin to consider this information more useful than say; " near a road ", " near water ", " in a wooded area " or " a shallow grave "?

3. Do you think maybe we could get all responsible agencies to shut down all air traffic on 2/14/04 ?

4. If we accomplish No. 3, and supposing your premonition does involve air transport, what date would you most suspect as being the most likely for a re-schedule by the attackers?

I have some more questions, but I will defer until I have the answer to these...

1st December 2003, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by Diogenes
I have some more questions, but I will defer until I have the answer to these...

Dream on

renata

1st December 2003, 12:14 PM

There are daily attacks on American troops in Iraq. Why should February 14th be any different?

Dragonrock

1st December 2003, 01:04 PM

Originally posted by renata
There are daily attacks on American troops in Iraq. Why should February 14th be any different?

Okay, we can count out Iraq, unless we put a minimum number of casualties, say 100, anything less is nothing of note. Do you agree Luci?

Before you complain about all deaths being of note, I mean it is not of note in regards to your prediction.

Starrman

1st December 2003, 01:34 PM

This is just stupid.

something like an attack is being planned

If no attack occurs, it's OK, Luci only feels an attack is being
planned.

Luci can't lose here - if something happens ANYWHERE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE it is 'I told you so'. If nothing happens it is 'well I only said something was being planned.'

Can someone give me a hypothetical outcome for 2/14/04 that Luci's prediction does not cover? Didn't think so.

If it's wrong, great.

Sadly - your prediction is so vague that it cannot be.

Abdul Alhazred

1st December 2003, 02:09 PM

Please see my earlier post I'm ready to take the million dollar challenge! (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=31362).

Additional predictions of a more general nature:

Tomorrow, there will be gaper delays on the Ryan. :p

Tomorrow, there will be gaper delays on the Stevenson. :p

Tomorrow, there will be rubbernecker delays on the BQE. :p :p

Tomorrow, there will be rubbernecker delays on the LIE. :p :p

UnrepentantSinner

1st December 2003, 07:26 PM

Hmmm. Wonder if I should reset Luchianarchy's clock...

Of course it's so vague that it that it's a suckers bet. Perhaps details will be forthcoming, but much like a child's imaginary friend I suspect they shall be alluded to, but never show up.

DangerousBeliefs

1st December 2003, 07:31 PM

I'm getting a very strong feeling that the Pope will pass away in 2004....

Aoidoi

1st December 2003, 08:59 PM

Originally posted by DangerousBeliefs
I'm getting a very strong feeling that the Pope will pass away in 2004.... C'mon, it's "I see a figure all in white being called by angels" or "I see a major religious figure moving on to the next plane in the coming year."

You've gotta be flowery and more vague for your amazing powers to work! Just look at TENYEARS, a couple dozen posts and I can't figure out for sure if he's saying he can predict the future or not! That's the kind of vagueness you need to be a prophet!

Either that or a good editor after the fact. ;)

Ratman_tf

1st December 2003, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by Starrman
This is just stupid.

If no attack occurs, it's OK, Luci only feels an attack is being
planned.

I agree. That's why I'm asking for more information, if it's forthcoming.

Luci can't lose here - if something happens ANYWHERE IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE it is 'I told you so'. If nothing happens it is 'well I only said something was being planned.'

At this point, most likely. If a nuke hits Moscow or planes slam into the White House on Feb 14 I would consider that at least worth note. But anything short of that would be 'fishing' results.

Can someone give me a hypothetical outcome for 2/14/04 that Luci's prediction does not cover? Didn't think so.

And let's clear that up.

Lucianarchy, how can we distinguish your predicion from any of a number of events that could happen on 2-14? That's why we need more info. Attacks are happening every day in Iraq. Terrorism is rampant in the middle east. Crime happens every day in every country. Hell, animals attack each other all the time in the wild.

And your 'Psirony' is indistinguishable from an excuse system.

The Fool

1st December 2003, 10:06 PM

Man Oh Man. I am going to laugh myself sick if someting does happen on that date. Luci is not stupid, what does she have to lose? Her credability on this board?

thaiboxerken

1st December 2003, 10:45 PM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

Well gee, it certainly would be impressive if there was an attack somewhere in the world that day. :rolleyes:

I think it would be more impressive if you predicted a day of peace, where no person was attacked ANYWHERE in the world. As it stands, your "prediction" is so vague and general, that it will most certainly come true. It's about like saying, I predict that tomorrow sunshine will touch the earth's surface.

Undodog

2nd December 2003, 02:39 AM

I had a vision.. of a troll-like creature.. and there was a strong connection to a word.. something like 'Lunacy'.

Hamish

2nd December 2003, 04:42 AM

Originally posted by Undodog
I had a vision.. of a troll-like creature.. and there was a strong connection to a word.. something like 'Lunacy'.

Quick anagram:

Lucianarchy = Lunacy Chair

plindboe

2nd December 2003, 04:51 AM

Thousands attacks of different kinds occur each and every day on this planet. Sure there will be bloody attacks 14th Feb., but bloody attacks will happen the 15th and 16th Feb. as well. Now, we can just wait until the 14th Feb. when such an inevitable attack will occur and you will present it as proof of your super powers.

Michael Redman

2nd December 2003, 05:58 AM

If nothing happens? Who cares! The claim was not that something would happen, the claim was that " . . .something like an attack is being planned . . ." Hard to miss on that prediction. It's not falsifiable.

Drooper

2nd December 2003, 08:24 AM

Luci,

You are a one trick pony.

Anybody reading this thread can do a news search on Google for the word "attack" and select any single day. The number of hits will always rank in the thousands. That is thousands of hits per day.

Given that so many things happeb every day, what would REALLY impress me(and others I suspect), is if you were able to tell us that we would be able to find no reference to any "attack" on February 14, or any other day for that matter..

ceptimus

2nd December 2003, 10:34 AM

The worst 'attack' of the year - the one that is mentioned in future, 'reviews of 2004' might happen on February 14th. There is a roughly 1 in 366 chance of that happening, so if it does it will add some credibility to Luci.

(This assumes, of course, that Luci does not help to plan, or carry out the attack).

Thanz

2nd December 2003, 12:41 PM

I don't think that I am as jaded as some of the people here, or perhaps I am just not as jaded about Lucianarchy, but I think that Lucianarchy needs a chance for further explanation before being roasted on the fire here.

So, Lucianarchy, are you able to provide any other details on the attack other than the date? Something on a degree of magnitude perhaps, a more specific location, a possible weapon, country, terrorist organization, victims? Anything of that sort?

If not, your prediction (while interesting) is not of much practical value, is it? I don't know if an admonishment to be "extra vigilant" is of much use here. If I worked at the WTC, no amount of extra vigilance would have helped me without specifics of what might happen.

SquishyDave

2nd December 2003, 05:32 PM

I am totally with Thanz on this one. We should see if Luci has any more details, if not, we can continue this rant.

However if s/he has enough details to make this falsifiable, then we wait, and if neccessary we can be all mean and I-told-you-so after the 14th of Feb.

3rd December 2003, 05:58 AM

Originally posted by SquishyDave
We should see if Luci has any more details, if not, we can continue this rant.

I am going to save you some time.

Sit down, make yourself comfortable.

Now, with palms facing away from you slowly wave your hands about one foot from your face. Got it? Good.

Do this for about 30 seconds. At the end of that time say "What?"

Repeat. Now, for about 9/10 of the repetitions DO NOT wave your hands in front of your face, just sit there and at the end of some period (up to you) say "What?"

You have now had a dialog with Luci.

This can be repeated for a variety of issues and claims.

For example, let us contend that one has a way of beating the UK lottery.

Say "What?" and engage the routine above.

Or, let us contend that people can really, really see when blindfolded.

Say "What?" and engage the routine above.

Let us contend that Schwartz is a really, really good researcher.

Say "What?" and engage the routine above.

This works for ANYTHING and has the advantage that you don't have to worry about time zones, you can do it anywhere .. at home, at work, when at the dentist (this last gives the best flavor for the real thing).

You don't have to thank me, just enjoy.

juninho

3rd December 2003, 08:44 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

Hmmm, I reckon it'll probably be in Chicago and I'm getting the initials A.C.

Oh damn, I'm 75 years too late.

Go away troll.

Barkhorn1x

3rd December 2003, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

OK -- I --- feel something like an attack right now. Oh wait - it was just gas.

Which is about what your "feeling" adds up to.

I am not going to re-iterate what others have said. I will comment that;

1. W/o the date in there, your statement would be SO vague as to be UTTERLY ridiculous. With the date you still have too much wriggle room in terms of the definition of "attack".
2. Do you even realize that if this is all you have then your "power" is WORTHLESS!!!!!!!!!!! The world is a mighty big place and your plea for vigilance is just dumb in light of the fact that you can't supply the who what & where of your "feeling". Even your When is not too helpful.
3. You may be playing a joke here. Please tell us that you are playing a joke. :p

Barkhorn.

SquishyDave

3rd December 2003, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by Ed
I am going to save you some time..... OK Ed, you guys have been dealing with Luci longer than me, I thought they might like a chance to clarify, but maybe not. I perhaps naively thought that if we got a falsifiable statement from Luci, Luci might think twice when her "prediction" turned out to be ***** (probably). I know, I know, no need to point out the horrific flaws in my plan, but I am still a new skeptic, so I have some wide eyed optimism left.

3rd December 2003, 03:18 PM

Originally posted by SquishyDave
OK Ed, you guys have been dealing with Luci longer than me, I thought they might like a chance to clarify, but maybe not. I perhaps naively thought that if we got a falsifiable statement from Luci, Luci might think twice when her "prediction" turned out to be ***** (probably). I know, I know, no need to point out the horrific flaws in my plan, but I am still a new skeptic, so I have some wide eyed optimism left.

It's not the horrific flaws in your plan so much as it is the horrific ramifications of trying to engage lucy in debate. It does not happen. You have a kid? No matter, you can imagine. It is like a debate with a kid. Why? No. Why? No. etc.

Try it for yourself. I suggest a pint or two first:D

Incidentially, no matter what happens, Luci will declare victory. Psironic, isn't it?

jimmygun

3rd December 2003, 04:35 PM

I got it! I got it!..........A BIG MAC ATTACK!!!!!!!! What do I win?

Over one billion served!

No? Heart attack? Shark attack? When animals attack? Nick nack patti whack attack? A tiskit attack sit? A casket attack? An attack of the blues? What? Throw me a bone here people!:D

thaiboxerken

3rd December 2003, 05:12 PM

You know, Luci isn't going to get anymore specific with his "prediction" I'm sure. But, he will still point to this thread as "absolute proof" that he has superpowers on that day. Yes, somewhere, someone or something will be attacked on that day.. like everyday.. and he will claimed to have predicted it.

Nevermind the fact that we've all pointed out how stupid of a prediction Luci gave. When one is as insane as Luci, the facts don't bother them.

Ratman_tf

3rd December 2003, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
You know, Luci isn't going to get anymore specific with his "prediction" I'm sure. But, he will still point to this thread as "absolute proof" that he has superpowers on that day. Yes, somewhere, someone or something will be attacked on that day.. like everyday.. and he will claimed to have predicted it.

Nevermind the fact that we've all pointed out how stupid of a prediction Luci gave. When one is as insane as Luci, the facts don't bother them.

Pretty much. I just wanted to give Lucianarchy a chance to make good.
If no further details are forthcoming, we can write this one off as a non-predicion, just like Ladybrook.

Schizobunny

3rd December 2003, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Groo
I am still waiting for a prediction of the lottery numbers... (I could use some extra money)

Here you go. 36-29-1-5-15-10.

Note: You can not put any blame on me for being wrong.

Hannibal

4th December 2003, 01:37 AM

What you must try and remember is that Luci will not debate or clarify - ever. It will not believ anything that does not fit with It's view of the world. It will insinuate, accuse and do anything to avoid debate or answer questions. Recently Luci accused me of not being a Police officer in another thread. i did not respond because there was no need - the thread was old and the debate buried ages ago - and Luci lost.

I predict that a view barbed replies fro Luci will come in relation to this and we will have no clarification of the prediction. Furthermore It will never answer any questions on the "Larsen List" nor the challenge about Geller being a fraud and Luci stating that all his tricks can be done by an amateur.

I also predict that I am going to have a cup of decaf coffee in about 3 minutes.....

Bahala Na!

nick

4th December 2003, 09:26 AM

Originally posted by Dragonrock

Okay, we can count out Iraq, unless we put a minimum number of casualties, say 100, anything less is nothing of note. Do you agree Luci?

Before you complain about all deaths being of note, I mean it is not of note in regards to your prediction.

He'd be wise not to agree to a minimum of 100. I was surprised to read in "Beyond Fear" by Bruce Schneier (excellent, btw) that the number of terrorist attacks (this, excluding acts by combatants in wartime that targeted civilians, eg Coventry, Dresden, Hiroshima) that killed 100 or more people, in the last 100 years, has been: about 20. It's a good pop quiz question - most people will guess far higher. (He lists every one, too, so if you know of others you can add them.) 9./11 is obviously the biggest, then a couple of hijackings or bombings of big planes, but there's only 4 or 5 above 200 as I recall.

Now, back to Luci's suggestion, maybe we can propose, as I'm sure Randi would, a reasonable protocol here (albeit without the million bucks).

How about:
- "Attack" must take place 14th February 2004, 0000-2359 UTC (that's GMT for most purposes)
- Event must make #1 headline on CNN International edition for at least 6 consecutive hours (if Larry King Live is scheduled, it must be cancelled, or Larry's guest replaced with someone responding to the "attack")
- At least 20 people killed, or 10,000 square feet of buildings destroyed, or 100 people taken hostage, or 1 aircraft with capacity for over 40 persons hijacked,
- Attack not to take place in Iraq, Israel, or Palestinian occupied territories

To measure the odds of that happening, I suggest we imagine what odds we would want in order to stake $10 on it happening (assuming we let down our barriers of good taste and dececy in order to do so). I'd want, oh, say, 100 to 1.

In fact maybe Luci can pop down to his local branch of William Hill with the above specification (or whatever else we might negotiate here) and ask what odds they would give him ? Clue, Luci: if you just want to say "an attack will take place on 2004-02-14" they won't take your money. Bookmakers make great skeptics. That way, if Luci is right, not only has he proved that he's a [bit of a] psychic, he'll also have made a few pennies.

4th December 2003, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Schizobunny

Here you go. 36-29-1-5-15-10.

Note: You can not put any blame on me for being wrong.

At some time, and somewhere you will be right. It's Psironic.

4th December 2003, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by nick

- , or 1 aircraft with capacity for over 40 persons hijacked,
.

I'd say a regularly scheduled flight in the first world with jet equipment.

Otherwise luci might swipe a cropduster to make a point.

Would you really pay off for a "hijack" in Senegal of an Air Mombasa Biplane that represents 75% of their seating capacity?

I think not
:D

Lucianarchy

6th December 2003, 02:59 AM

:rolleyes:

lofgoernost

6th December 2003, 05:29 AM

Thanks for the clarification, Lucian.

Ratman_tf

6th December 2003, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
:rolleyes:

So, are you conceding that you haven't made a prediction yet?

There were two major attacks on the news yesterday. I thought of you ;) . You could have made your prediction for yesterday and claimed these attacks. And of course, 'planned' opens up all the failed attempts that may come up too.

How are we to distinguish your so-called 'prediction' from all the other events in the world?

Hannibal

7th December 2003, 07:58 AM

Is it worth continuing debate with this troll? Obviously there si no way It will clarify or specify because It cannot - that would show that It has no powers. This "prediction" gives the usual amount of "blagging room" needed to pretend they were on the money.

Nice reasoned and balanced response Luci...you must be damn proud.

Darwin'sGoat

7th December 2003, 06:21 PM

OK.

I feel something like Lucianarchy being wrong is being planned for 14th February 2004. On this message board.

Million dollars here I come.

Peace.

I also predict that thaiboxerken will miss the intended sarcasm of this post.

thaiboxerken

7th December 2003, 06:31 PM

Actually, I think most people here are thinking that Lucianarchy's "prediction" will come true. With the general nature of his prediction, however, the odds are against Luci's prediction not coming true.

Ok, I have a strong feeling that there will be an attack this Sunday. I don't know where, bu there will be an attack. Who wants to bet that my prediction doesn't pan out?

Jeff Corey

7th December 2003, 07:04 PM

Where?
At Big Tiny's Biker Bar in Waterbury?
The bouncer doed it.

Darwin'sGoat

7th December 2003, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by Darwin'sGoat
OK.

I feel something like Lucianarchy being wrong is being planned for 14th February 2004. On this message board.

Million dollars here I come.

Peace.

I also predict that thaiboxerken will miss the intended sarcasm of this post.

My prediction has come true!!!

Ratman_tf

9th December 2003, 04:47 AM

Originally posted by Ratman_tf

How are we to distinguish your so-called 'prediction' from all the other events in the world?

No answer?

I could have predicted that. How Psironic!

9th December 2003, 05:05 AM

Please! Do I sense surprise? The creature known as Luci will claim success if Aunt Mabel overpays newspaper monger Abdul by 5p.

Lord Emsworth

9th December 2003, 05:29 AM

So, I am constantly checking this thread to see if there are some clarifications as to what will happen on the 14th of February 2004.

But noooo. Nothing. And actually it isn't even a surprise.

Here is my prediction:

- There will be no further clarification.

A few more:

- There will happen something on 14th of February 2004 that Lucianarchy will use to fit the prediction.

- I, and many, many others will still not believe in Lucy's superpowers.

- I, and many, many others will be even more convinced about somebody's [enter appropriate expression].

Do I win?

Yawn

An Infinite Ocean

9th December 2003, 06:18 AM

I can't help but think you're all being a little unfair.

If we assume that Luci genuinely believes in this premonition, it's a bit ridiculous to demand details that he/she/it didn't sense (times, places, type of attack and so forth).

It's very easy to rant, shout and mock about lack of definition. But perhaps - just perhaps - the premonition simply didn't include these details. I see no rule that says 'all predictions of future events must list every possible detail'. Perhaps only vagueness comes through?

My suggestion is to wait and see. If something 'big' (ie, hugely out of the ordinary) happens, then Luci can chalk up a hit. It could still be coincidence, but the probability of such a coincidence is fairly low. If it's just the run-of-the-mill suicide bombings and ambushes on troops in Iraq, you can ignore the prediction as insignificant.

For those that are waiting to pounce on me: I am a skeptic that doesn't believe in premonitions. I just think that most of the ranting that followed the OP is depressingly predictable and is simply judging the post without having actually waited until the date in question.

The Don

9th December 2003, 06:35 AM

I guess one thing that I'm uncomfortable about with letting Lucianarchy get away with a vague prediction is that it will be difficult to judge the significance of the prediction.

If, for example, Nuclear war breaks out between North Korea and the Unites States on 14 February 2004, then fair enough that's significant but does it prove Lucianarchy's ability to predict, mean that Lucianarchy "got lucky" (though clearly in this case there's no lucky involved) or is a member of the North Korean politburo and is planning the attack as we speak (in which case I suggest that there are other items of more importance than posting to skeptical message boards) ?

If nothing out of the ordinary happens, is Lucianarchy going to say "sorry guys - guess I was wrong - there's no precognicence" ?

Of course the reverse is also true. I WILL not say "sorry Lucianarchy - guess I was wrong - you can see into the future". I would expect a much more controlled experiment than some vague prediction.

So for everyine involved, this whole thing will be a colossal waste of time and effort

An Infinite Ocean

9th December 2003, 06:38 AM

Originally posted by The Don
Of course the reverse is also true. I WILL not say "sorry Lucianarchy - guess I was wrong - you can see into the future". I would expect a much more controlled experiment than some vague prediction.

True. But I'm sure you'd agree that a hit is a hit. If something extraordinary happens, you can say 'Okay, that's a hit', without saying 'yes, I believe that you're magic'.

9th December 2003, 07:46 AM

Barkhorn1x

9th December 2003, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by An Infinite Ocean
I just think that most of the ranting that followed the OP is depressingly predictable and is simply judging the post without having actually waited until the date in question.

Guilty as charged - and not sorry about it either - as Luci thinks that she (is she a she?) has this miraculous gift. Yet the result of this miraculous gift - her premonition - is so vague that it adds up to little more than a feeling of "something is going to happen".

What is a rational mind to make of a claimed supernatural power that is akin to simple "worrying"?

I for one will be back on 02/14 to assess the results of the premonition.

Barkhorn.

Lucianarchy

9th December 2003, 12:31 PM

Originally posted by Hannibal

Nice reasoned and balanced response Luci...you must be damn proud.

I am sure you'll get over it, poppet.

There is nothing more to add. But don't let me stop you.

Thanz

9th December 2003, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy

There is nothing more to add. But don't let me stop you.
Are you saying that there is nothing more to add to your prediction? That your "vision" (or however you make the prediction) has no further potential details that could help narrow the prediction?

I am perfectly willing to accept that what you have posted is all that there is. I just don't think that it is all that useful an ability, if it is indeed an ability.

geni

9th December 2003, 12:47 PM

Well today would have fitted the prediction lets wait and see about tomorrow.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3302629.stm

LTC8K6

9th December 2003, 12:50 PM

Valentines day, huh?

Who would attack anyone on Valentines day? :)

Ratman_tf

10th December 2003, 02:11 AM

Originally posted by An Infinite Ocean
I can't help but think you're all being a little unfair.

If we assume that Luci genuinely believes in this premonition, it's a bit ridiculous to demand details that he/she/it didn't sense (times, places, type of attack and so forth).

We're asking for clarification. There may be none, but Luci hasn't said anything either way. That there is or is not more information.

In cold reading, it's better to leave as much ambiguous as possible so more options are availalble to fit.

It's very easy to rant, shout and mock about lack of definition. But perhaps - just perhaps - the premonition simply didn't include these details. I see no rule that says 'all predictions of future events must list every possible detail'. Perhaps only vagueness comes through?

If so, Luci hasn't said.

My suggestion is to wait and see. If something 'big' (ie, hugely out of the ordinary) happens, then Luci can chalk up a hit. It could still be coincidence, but the probability of such a coincidence is fairly low. If it's just the run-of-the-mill suicide bombings and ambushes on troops in Iraq, you can ignore the prediction as insignificant.

Then it becomes a subjective judgement on what makes an attack fit the prediction. How do you know Luci didn't 'see' a small attack? Or a planned attack that will fail?

Even a full thermonuclear exchange or invasion by aliens wouldn't qualify as a hit becuase we just don't have enough information to link ANYTHING to this so-called predicion yet.

For those that are waiting to pounce on me: I am a skeptic that doesn't believe in premonitions. I just think that most of the ranting that followed the OP is depressingly predictable and is simply judging the post without having actually waited until the date in question.

At this point, with what information we have been given, I feel justified in judging that this is not a prediction yet. Not a prediction that is validatable. It's just too damn vague to be anything but fishing for results at this point.

Ratman_tf

10th December 2003, 02:17 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy

There is nothing more to add. But don't let me stop you.

So is there nothing more to your 'prediction'?

Luci, I'm going to say that an attack will happen or be planned on or near the 14th as well. Not because I'm psychic, but because things like that happen

all

the

time.

Your so-called prediction is indistinguishable from guesswork.

geni

10th December 2003, 05:27 AM

todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3305763.stm

alfaniner

10th December 2003, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by LTC8K6
Valentines day, huh?

Who would attack anyone on Valentines day? :)

Ex-girlfriend. Trust me.

Besides, it will be sweeps month. Network TV shows all kinds of blockbuster movies during that time. Who's to say the attack won't be just a showing of "Armageddon"?

Lord Emsworth

10th December 2003, 09:23 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
There is nothing more to add. But don't let me stop you.

But perhaps you could at least exclude some things?

roger

10th December 2003, 10:18 AM

Another attack for today: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52185-2003Dec10.html

Undodog

11th December 2003, 12:47 AM

A 3 page thread about how we should ignore Lucianarchy.

geni

11th December 2003, 05:06 AM

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3309085.stm

Ersby

11th December 2003, 05:20 AM

Did anyone else notice that Ladybrook was in the news AGAIN recently? That makes what, six or seven times? So much for it being strange and unusual.

roger

11th December 2003, 06:41 AM

Today's attack: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A55514-2003Dec11.html

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and state that I feel that an attack is being planned for tomorrow, Dec 12, of some kind, somewhere in the world.

Drooper

11th December 2003, 08:37 AM

NO, that wasn't today's attack.

This was today's attack:

Today's Attack 11/12/2003 (http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=worldNews&storyID=3977925)

roger

11th December 2003, 08:41 AM

Maybe this (http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=healthNews&storyID=3977546) is the best evidence for planning for an attack?

Luke T.

11th December 2003, 12:36 PM

Fun with spelling.

Originally posted by Aoidoi
"I see a major religious figure moving on to the next plane in the coming year."

Luke T.

11th December 2003, 12:43 PM

Wait. It's even better than that!

Originally posted by Aoidoi
C'mon, it's "I see a figure all in white being called by angels" or "I see a major religious figure moving on to the next plane in the coming year."

"The Popes Angel (http://home.iprimus.com.au/gunnado/mysticalangels.html)

We have been told that this photograph was taken by an airport employee who was taking a snap shot of The Pope's private plane. If you look closely, you will see the white pointed nose and cockpit windows of the airplane. The translucent Angel was not visible to the naked eye, but revealed its self in the photograph. Many people believe that this "Angel" is actually The Blessed Mother Mary. The dark figure in the foreground is another employee. "

You are one spooky dude, Aoidoi...

geni

12th December 2003, 04:07 AM

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3312257.stm

Prester John

12th December 2003, 04:14 AM

I bet Luci loves all this attention

Ratman_tf

12th December 2003, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by Prester John
I bet Luci loves all this attention

I have no doubt. Luci's 'Ladybrook' thread's one of the longest running ones here.

But it's also a glaring example of fishing for results and rationalizing, so it serves a purpose.

12th December 2003, 11:01 AM

Claus,

How about writing this up (post feb 14) as an example of woo rationalization.

Aoidoi

12th December 2003, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by Luke T.
You are one spooky dude, Aoidoi... Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all week. Also available for Birthday Parties and Bar Mitzvahs. Enjoy the buffet, don't forget to tip your waitress.

;)

Mercutio

12th December 2003, 11:57 AM

For those of you who do not follow the limerick thread...

Valentine's Day will see an attack!
(The details are all that I lack;
It's clear as a bell--
But fuzzy as hell--
For visions, I have quite a knack!)

"Valentine's Day will see an attack!"
Lest you think these the words of a quack:
What now brings you laughter,
A day or two after
Will make perfect sense, looking back.

Valentine's Day will see an attack!
Or if not, then I'll try a new tack.
Although it's all *****
I will still make it fit,
The same as that Sylvia hack!

roger

12th December 2003, 02:20 PM

Originally posted by roger
I'm going to go out on a limb here, and state that I feel that an attack is being planned for tomorrow, Dec 12, of some kind, somewhere in the world. See Geni's post above. I want my million! Now! :mad:

Stereolab

13th December 2003, 04:12 PM

Luci,

Is this "feeling" about 2/14 something that you have had constantly since you started this thread? Or was it just a thought that came and went?

geni

14th December 2003, 02:28 AM

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/3317245.stm

Libertarian

14th December 2003, 03:43 AM

Originally posted by Luke T.
Wait. It's even better than that!

"The Popes Angel (http://home.iprimus.com.au/gunnado/mysticalangels.html)

We have been told that this photograph was taken by an airport employee who was taking a snap shot of The Pope's private plane. If you look closely, you will see the white pointed nose and cockpit windows of the airplane. The translucent Angel was not visible to the naked eye, but revealed its self in the photograph. Many people believe that this "Angel" is actually The Blessed Mother Mary. The dark figure in the foreground is another employee. "

You are one spooky dude, Aoidoi...

Is it just me, or does that angel look a lot like Mr. Burns did on the Simpson's when he was drugged-out in the woods and the townsfolk mistook him for an alien?

geni

15th December 2003, 02:18 AM

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3319583.stm

Hexxenhammer

15th December 2003, 07:23 AM

Anyone predict Saddam's capture?

Darwin'sGoat

15th December 2003, 07:25 AM

I'm surprised Luci wasn't able to cash in on Saddam's capture. Lockers and spider holes I guess.

Hexxenhammer

15th December 2003, 07:26 AM

How silly of me. I forgot that remote viewers can't see in the dark.

Darwin'sGoat

15th December 2003, 07:26 AM

Hexxenhammer and I are PSYCHIC!!!

geni

16th December 2003, 03:06 AM

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3323157.stm

geni

17th December 2003, 05:18 AM

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3326499.stm

geni

18th December 2003, 03:15 PM

todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/3330157.stm

geni

19th December 2003, 05:06 AM

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3333197.stm

Ratman_tf

19th December 2003, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Hexxenhammer
Anyone predict Saddam's capture?

Apparently the writers of South Park did. :D

Elektrix

19th December 2003, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by Ratman_tf

Apparently the writers of South Park did. :D

Not really........ it's just that it is very easy for them to alter a show or do something at the last minute (South Park is created with a 3D rendering program called Maya, so they don't have to do much at all, and doing stuff like adding a beard to Saddam isn't that difficult)..... they had a similar quick turnaround after the Elian Gonzalez thing.

-Elektrix

thaiboxerken

19th December 2003, 02:53 PM

No!! They didn't change the program after Saddam's capture, they used their superdooper remote-viewing powers!! I don't care if it is perfectly explainable using mundane methods... they still have superpowers!!
Ladybrook.

Darwin'sGoat

19th December 2003, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
No!! They didn't change the program after Saddam's capture, they used their superdooper remote-viewing powers!! I don't care if it is perfectly explainable using mundane methods... they still have superpowers!!
Ladybrook.

Oh. Now you're just trolling.

Manchester.

Nyarlathotep

19th December 2003, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by Darwin'sGoat

Oh. Now you're just trolling.

Manchester.

No he's not.

Intercourse, Pennsylvania

thaiboxerken

19th December 2003, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by Darwin'sGoat

Oh. Now you're just trolling.

Manchester.

Nuh uh.. You can't deny the psirony of Saddam appearing in South Park!!!

Fukuoka, Japan

Darwin'sGoat

19th December 2003, 03:34 PM

I know for a fact that nothing interesting happens in Intercourse, PA. At least nothing since they filmed "Witness".

Also, nice hat.

Blackfriars

Nyarlathotep

19th December 2003, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Darwin'sGoat
I know for a fact that nothing interesting happens in Intercourse, PA. At least nothing since they filmed "Witness".

Also, nice hat.

Blackfriars

Well, they could always film Witness II: Revenge of the Amish

Nice hat yourself.

Pioche (http://www.piochenevada.com/)

Darwin'sGoat

19th December 2003, 04:07 PM

Psirony? PSIRONY?!

Telepathetic is what it is.

=====================

Listvyanka Village, Russia

thaiboxerken

19th December 2003, 04:23 PM

Telepathetic?! You just made that word up.

Ratman_tf

19th December 2003, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by Elektrix

Not really........ it's just that it is very easy for them to alter a show or do something at the last minute (South Park is created with a 3D rendering program called Maya, so they don't have to do much at all, and doing stuff like adding a beard to Saddam isn't that difficult)..... they had a similar quick turnaround after the Elian Gonzalez thing.

-Elektrix

You may have noticed the smiley.

And I knew SP used Maya. Interesting little tidbit to bring up when people seem to think it's made with construction paper. ;) (Note the smiley again, Matt and Trea seem to like perpetuating that misunderstanding for fun.)

Ketchup.

VampKira

20th December 2003, 08:40 AM

Originally posted by Nyarlathotep:
------------------------------------------------------

Intercourse, Pennsylvania

-------------------------------------------------------

Oh. My. Gosh.

That VERY evening my husband and I had intercourse, and I live in Pennsylvania.

SPOOKY

*wink*

--Vampy (who is glad to get her virgin post out of the way in such an uncontroversial manner.)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"There's a sucker born every minute at Transylvania Maternity Hospital."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ratman_tf

20th December 2003, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by VampKira
Originally posted by Nyarlathotep:
------------------------------------------------------

Intercourse, Pennsylvania

-------------------------------------------------------

Oh. My. Gosh.

That VERY evening my husband and I had intercourse, and I live in Pennsylvania.

SPOOKY

*wink*

--Vampy (who is glad to get her virgin post out of the way in such an uncontroversial manner.)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"There's a sucker born every minute at Transylvania Maternity Hospital."
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Welcome! :)

Hannibal

21st December 2003, 02:42 AM

Errr...Hi folks....(looks around confused)...Sorry I was looking for Luci to respond to the prediction and the criticism levelled at it....(looks under sofa)...have you seen Luci recently at this party....(looks under stairs)...nope? Never mind. I'll give up looking for Luci in a rational debate and I'll look for Nessie instead....(takes tray of vol-au-vents from table and a bottle of Baileys exeunt )

:D

thaiboxerken

21st December 2003, 03:35 PM

Originally posted by VampKira

That VERY evening my husband and I had intercourse, and I live in Pennsylvania.

I don't believe you.. I need evidence. Pictures will suffice, video will be even better. :p

alfaniner

22nd December 2003, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by Hannibal
Errr...Hi folks....(looks around confused)...Sorry I was looking for Luci to respond to the prediction and the criticism levelled at it....(looks under sofa)...have you seen Luci recently at this party....(looks under stairs)...nope? Never mind. I'll give up looking for Luci in a rational debate and I'll look for Nessie instead....(takes tray of vol-au-vents from table and a bottle of Baileys exeunt )

:D

I'm always glad for the chance for this thread to be bumped just to remind people how ridiculous Luci is.

Wiki wiki.

VampKira

22nd December 2003, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by thaiboxerken

I don't believe you.. I need evidence. Pictures will suffice, video will be even better. :p

Thank you for making me spit my coffee all over my keyboard this morning. ROFL!

And...er.....I'll get back to you on that evidence. M'kay? *wink* :D

The Don

21st January 2004, 05:29 AM

As 14 February is getting pretty close now

*bump*

geni

21st January 2004, 05:35 AM

ok then

Todays attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/3415987.stm

Hannibal

21st January 2004, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by alfaniner

I'm always glad for the chance for this thread to be bumped just to remind people how ridiculous Luci is.

Wiki wiki.

whoops! Clumsy me....

Lucianarchy

21st January 2004, 10:31 AM

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

thaiboxerken

21st January 2004, 11:44 AM

Luci.. you're "prediction" is of no consequence to the real world.

I will demonstrate.

I predict that there will be an attack 2 days from now. I don't know where it will be in the world, but there WILL be an attack.

Lucianarchy

21st January 2004, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
Luci.. you're "prediction" is of no consequence to the real world.

Whereas, "you're"diction is no doubt a consequence of your muddled one.

thaiboxerken

21st January 2004, 06:06 PM

You really shouldn't start a battle of wit, when you are unarmed.

So, will there be an attack as I predict in 2 days? Would you like to place a wager on it?

Darwin'sGoat

21st January 2004, 07:12 PM

It would be SO damn funny if the world lucked out and Ken somehow managed to be wrong.

Hannibal

21st January 2004, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Peace.

Errrrr...right. You have visions and predictions and hope that they're wrong? What kind of RV'er are you? Come on Luci, that smacks of "get out clause" so strongly!

"Ah! there was no attack because my vision warned everyone"

Total hogwash

Go for broke! Be a devil! Nostradamus never said anything like

"I see a nation of power fall in flame, a threat from the east on man made wings as the horsemen ride forth...but I could be mistaken. Anyway, please be careful folks and we might be OK"

From "Nostradamus's second big scroll of predictions" 1564

thaiboxerken

23rd January 2004, 03:52 PM

Jan 23rd is here, the day I predicted an attack somewhere in the world. Did it come true?

Nyarlathotep

23rd January 2004, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
Jan 23rd is here, the day I predicted an attack somewhere in the world. Did it come true?

Maybe, a chopper went down (http://www.reuters.com/locales/newsArticle.jsp?type=worldNews&locale=en_IN&storyID=4198397) in Iraq today, though they don't yet know what brought it down. But if it was hostile fire,maybe you oughtto apply for that million.;)

Nyarlathotep

23rd January 2004, 04:03 PM

Now that I think about it, even if it wasn't hostile fire, you could use the trickmany of them do and claim that it isn't 100% precise and claim, after the fact, what you saw and was close enough to count.

geni

23rd January 2004, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by Darwin'sGoat
It would be SO damn funny if the world lucked out and Ken somehow managed to be wrong.

Back when I was reporting attacks daily there was one day when I could not find anything..

thaiboxerken

23rd January 2004, 04:52 PM

http://www.arabtimesonline.com/arabtimes/breakingnews/view.asp?msgID=4530

I'd say this qualifies as an attack, somewhere in the world, on Jan 23rd, 2004.

Chupacabras

23rd January 2004, 09:42 PM

10) My old man called the Mayor a donkey's rear. That should be something...

Uh... I thought this was the Top Ten thread :P

thaiboxerken

24th January 2004, 09:11 AM

Luci, look. I have just as much remote-viewing ability as you. I predicted an attack 2 days before it happened.

thaiboxerken

25th January 2004, 09:03 AM

Bumped to get Luci's attention. Yes, Luci.. I performed a prediction of the same caliber of yours perfectly.

Does this mean that I'm a remote-viewer?

Nah, I think it means that attacks happen all of the time.

Lucianarchy

25th January 2004, 09:58 AM

:rolleyes:

thaiboxerken

25th January 2004, 10:19 AM

Perhaps you can explain to me how your Feb 14th prediction is different than my Jan 23rd prediction.

Darwin'sGoat

25th January 2004, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
Perhaps you can explain to me how your Feb 14th prediction is different than my Jan 23rd prediction.

Well jeez Ken. It's obvious that you were just guessing.

*eyeroll*

thaiboxerken

29th January 2004, 03:38 PM

I wonder if Luci has figured out that his prediction is no better than a guess.

EternalUniverse

30th January 2004, 09:01 PM

Many people touting woowoo theories just do it for the attention. Why give it to them?

thaiboxerken

30th January 2004, 10:36 PM

If no one paid attention to Luci, he'd still applaud himself. Pointing out reality is something Luci needs, even if he ignores it.

geni

1st February 2004, 05:28 AM

Today's attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3448879.stm

Lucianarchy

5th February 2004, 01:11 AM

Like I said, I really, really hope this prediction does not come true. But I do still have the strong perception that a particualrly awful attack against a 'Western' target is in there for 14th Feb. I fear that there could be hundreds + of casualties. This particular perception deeply saddens me in its intensity.

CFLarsen

5th February 2004, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Like I said, I really, really hope this prediction does not come true. But I do still have the strong perception that a particualrly awful attack against a 'Western' target is in there for 14th Feb. I fear that there could be hundreds + of casualties. This particular perception deeply saddens me in its intensity.

"Still"? I think your explanation of what "psirony" is changes quite dramatically:

Posted by Lucianarchy on 08-17-2003 10:30 AM:

I often write things down as they come to me, I rarely stop to review or even think about it. I was responding to your taunt-thread and a powerful perception of 'ladybrook' came through, almost shouting at me so I wrote it down. It seemed important at the time, compelling even, but frankly, I forgot about it until I heard about the Ladybrook terrorist attack on Sunday morning. Usually I write things down in a diary or book, but this time, as the thread was about RV and the message seemed to be 'pushing' it's way through, I thought 'what the hey', and just let it out where it wanted to be.

Posted by Lucianarchy on 09-03-2003 02:12 PM:

I have explained how these perceptions happen and my relationship to the nature of them. This was not a guess, this was a psychic perception of a word which just needed to be written down when it came. I had earlier, (about an hour) whilst watering the garden, first felt the word sound 'ladybrook' as a clear, bright impression in my mind. Later, when I responded this TBK taunting thread, the word again became clear as an overriding impression and simply felt compelled to write it down there and then, and then felt a sense of relief. I didn't think about it until the next day, when I noticed it on the BBC news.
Considering the nature of this thread, the realisation of what had actually happened was to me, self evident. True psirony. Right here.

Posted by Lucianarchy on 09-06-2003 05:09 PM:

Unfortunately, that is not how the effect reliably works. This effect came through a perception that became self evident by being recorded within an hour before the Ladybrook terrorist attack. All recorded in a thread tauting my RV ability. Psirony. You have to be able to first be receptive to Psi in nature. Psi is like a butterfly.

Posted by Lucianarchy on 09-24-2003 07:49 AM:

I have explained before that these effects come through perceptions. The word 'ladybrook' came into my mind quite unexpectedly and with a feeling of urgency, whilst watering the garden and watching the butterflies. It happened again as I was responding to TBK in the opening post in this thread. It felt right to write it down, the best I can describe it is as a compulsive feeling satisified. I forgot about it right away and didn't notice that it had been recorded just hours before the Ladybrook terrorist attack, until the next day. Call it what you want, but this really happened.

Source (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?threadid=23702)

Tell me something, Lucianarchy: How can you "still" have a "perception", if your claim is that they come in a flash and need to be written down, so you don't forget them?

Why does this "perception" stay so forcefully in your mind?

thaiboxerken

5th February 2004, 06:19 AM

But I do still have the strong perception that a particualrly awful attack against a 'Western' target is in there for 14th Feb. I fear that there could be hundreds + of casualties. This particular perception deeply saddens me in its intensity

So now your RV prediction gets a little more specific. But, I'm concerned about your wording. What is a "western" target?

Also you said that there "could" be hundreds + casualties.

With your wording, a person being mugged anywhere in a modern area of the world could still be claimed as your prediction.

Kerberos

5th February 2004, 06:31 AM

Lucianarchy

5th February 2004, 06:53 AM

:rolleyes:

Lucianarchy

5th February 2004, 07:32 AM

I'm closer to the Golden Dawn
Immersed in Crowley's uniform
Of imagery
I'm living in a silent film
Portraying
Himmler's sacred realm
Of dream reality
I'm frightened by the total goal
Drawing to the ragged hole
And I ain't got the power anymore
No I ain't got the power anymore

I'm the twisted name
on Garbo's eyes
Living proof of
Churchill's lies
I'm destiny
I'm torn between the light and dark
Where others see their targets
Divine symmetry
Should I kiss the viper's fang
Or herald loud
the death of Man
I'm sinking in the quicksand
of my thought
And I ain't got the power anymore

I'm not a prophet
or a stone age man
Just a mortal
with the potential of a superman
I'm living on
I'm tethered to the logic
of Homo Sapien
Can't take my eyes
from the great salvation
Of ******** faith
If I don't explain what you ought to know
You can tell me all about it
On, the next Bardo
I'm sinking in the quicksand
of my thought
And I ain't got the power anymore

Don't believe in yourself
Don't deceive with belief
Knowledge comes
with death's release
-------------------------------------------------------

Best wishes, and so long.

L.

Hannibal

5th February 2004, 07:34 AM

CCCCRRRRRAAAAACCCKKKK!! Yes! Another home-run by Luci!

What a response! Such references, such justification such explanation! I guess that'll teach us all to doubt the abilities of this super being who isn't bound by science, reason, logic or even common sense...........:id:

Drooper

5th February 2004, 08:12 AM

Oh dear. Luci is off.

And only a week before his greatest triumph.

Ratman_tf

5th February 2004, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by Drooper
Oh dear. Luci is off.

And only a week before his greatest triumph.

A convienient escape if he can't dredge up some random news bite to 'confirm' his prediction, and if he can, I predict he'll be back with another round of 'I'm psychic because I say so!' without adressing the problems pointed out earlier in this thread with his non-prediction.

8th February 2004, 05:57 AM

We are getting close and I am so excited.

geni

10th February 2004, 06:37 AM

Today's attack

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3475679.stm

Drooper

11th February 2004, 07:40 AM

Today's attack:

Car bomb kills Iraq army recruits (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3478339.stm)

A powerful car bomb kills up to 47 people at an army centre in Baghdad - the second attack in two days.

Drooper

11th February 2004, 07:42 AM

At this rate, Luci is going to look a right boob if there ISN'T a major attack on Saturday.

Hexxenhammer

11th February 2004, 07:52 AM

My daughter is being baptised on the 14th, is that an attack on my atheism? If so, I predict an attack on my atheism on the 14th of Feb.

Dragonrock

11th February 2004, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by Drooper
At this rate, Luci is going to look a right boob if there ISN'T a major attack on Saturday.

Does this mean (s)he doesn't already? Or is (s)he just going to reenforce that belief?

Drooper

12th February 2004, 05:22 AM

Today's attack (February12th)

US soldiers killed by roadside bomb (http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_865186.html?menu=news.latestheadlines.worldnews )

12th February 2004, 06:41 AM

Originally posted by Drooper
At this rate, Luci is going to look a right boob if there ISN'T a major attack on Saturday.

Ergo

Luci=Janet Jackson?

alfaniner

12th February 2004, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by Drooper
At this rate, Luci is going to look a right boob if there ISN'T a major attack on Saturday.

Luci always looks a "right boob".

I predict that something bad will happen tomorrow, to somebody, somewhere, and that it will be reported on the news. After all, it will be Friday the 13th!!

Oh, and it took me a second reading, and my own post, to get Ed's joke!

The Don

13th February 2004, 05:45 AM

ceptimus

13th February 2004, 09:27 AM

Originally posted by ceptimus (8th post in this thread)
When Valentine's day falls on a Saturday, significant things are bound to happen. :)

I'll make some predictions of my own for this auspicious date:

1. Someone important will be married.
2. Someone famous will die.
3. A significant sports result will occur.
4. Someone, known to a forum member, will have their washing machine break down.

Only two-and-a-half months before I find out how incredibly accurate my predictions are. Please don't blame me when your washing machines fail. But reports on broken-down washing machines here will be appreciated. I can do the research on predictions 1, 2 and 3 unaided. :)

Trollbane

13th February 2004, 11:34 PM

Well that was fast.. It is 9:30 AM here and I broke my room-mates washing machine. Although I should get it fixed easily. Just as an advice, never pack an old washing machine full of towels, sweaters and other water absorbing stuff.

Actually it broke down yesterday evening around 6-7 PM, but it had to be the 14th in some timezone.

Darat

14th February 2004, 01:39 AM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3488149.stm

Gunmen go on rampage in Iraq town

Gen. Abizaid was targeted during a recent visit to Falluja
At least 20 people have been killed in an attack on a police station and government building in the flashpoint town of Falluja, west of Baghdad.

Fourteen police officers and three gunmen were reported among the dead

...snip...

But then there was always

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3485993.stm

and

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3484623.stm

..yesterday...

geni

14th February 2004, 03:43 AM

Doesn't qualify. I rather doubt that this was being planned as far back as the 30th of november.
the orginal prediction was:

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

empersis mine.

BillHoyt

14th February 2004, 04:43 AM

Originally posted by Ed

Ergo

Luci=Janet Jackson?

Hootergate lives on! What did she show and when did she show it?

15th February 2004, 03:58 AM

OK folks, it's all over, nothing to see. Now move on.

CFLarsen

15th February 2004, 04:20 AM

Yet another failed prediction.

Bonzo

15th February 2004, 04:29 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Yet another failed prediction.

[sound of crickets]

Or failed non prediction, depending how you look at it.

[/sound of crickets]

HarryKeogh

15th February 2004, 04:37 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Yet another failed prediction.

ever think those people that make predictions like this are hoping in the back of their mind that something happens, however tragic, just to make their prediction seem accurate?

nah, I'm sure none of them think that way.

CFLarsen

15th February 2004, 04:46 AM

Originally posted by HarryKeogh
ever think those people that make predictions like this are hoping in the back of their mind that something happens, however tragic, just to make their prediction seem accurate?

nah, I'm sure none of them think that way.

Of course they wouldn't. That would mean that they wish for the destruction of human life, often on a grand scale, just so they can be right.

Pretty much the mindset of a serial killer or a megalomaniacal dictator, when you think of it.

Nah, I'm sure you are right: None of them think that way....

Interesting Ian

15th February 2004, 05:07 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Yet another failed prediction.

WOW!! Yes. Yet further evidence for the skeptical belief system. Idiots :rolleyes:

El Greco

15th February 2004, 05:09 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian
Idiots :rolleyes:

Are you drunk now or is it your usual self speaking ?

15th February 2004, 05:36 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian

WOW!! Yes. Yet further evidence for the skeptical belief system. Idiots :rolleyes:

No, simply another demonstration of basic rationality.

Rolleyes, shrugs, plus other artfully considered spontanious affectations and twitches.

LFTKBS

15th February 2004, 05:47 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian
WOW!! Yes. Yet further evidence for the skeptical belief system. Idiots

Hey, scooter, sorry if the other people on your side are into making predictions which are, without fail, wrong.

I suppose we're idiots because that guy didn't turn everyone at TAM2 blind as well, right?

CFLarsen

15th February 2004, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian
WOW!! Yes. Yet further evidence for the skeptical belief system. Idiots :rolleyes:

A prediction that does not come true...what does that mean, Ian?

Interesting Ian

15th February 2004, 07:16 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen

A prediction that does not come true...what does that mean, Ian?

It means nothing at all.

CFLarsen

15th February 2004, 07:19 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian
It means nothing at all.

Come, now, Ian, you don't mean that. You know that a negative result weakens the theory.

Interesting Ian

15th February 2004, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen

Come, now, Ian, you don't mean that. You know that a negative result weakens the theory.

What theory?

CFLarsen

15th February 2004, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian
What theory?

That predictions about the future can be made the way Lucianarchy claims.

BillHoyt

15th February 2004, 07:42 AM

Oh, Lucy! You have some splainin' to do!

Barkhorn1x

15th February 2004, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian

WOW!! Yes. Yet further evidence for the skeptical belief system. Idiots :rolleyes:

Many posts by "II" on these boards - nothing of value said.
(no smiley here - because I'm serious)
______________________________________________

OK - where is that post by Luci where (s)he admits that;
- the prediction failed
- perhap (s)he needs to rethink their belief system

;)

Barkhorn.

Bonzo

15th February 2004, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen

That predictions about the future can be made the way Lucianarchy claims.

I agree with CFLarsen. However, I think the theory in question here is that "Lucianarchy can predict the future". I agree the negative result certainly supports the hypothesis that she cannot.

However, I don't think the result provides any support one way or the other to the hypothesis that no one else can do it. That's the problem; the Ian's of the world want us to hunt all these claimants down one by one and prove they can't do it. Even still, we haven't proven that Lucianarchy can't do it the next time. That is unprovable, so we cannot win.

Our position, which we believe to be rational, is that we will choose to believe that no one can predict the future (with better than random success), until someone proves they can. Ian's position is that until we prove it is impossible, than it might be possible. We cannot prove a negative, so we cannot win (if we define winning by changing Ian's mind, which we cannot do).

JamesM

15th February 2004, 07:58 AM

In case anyone's curious about Lucianarchy's own assessment of the prediction, on the Fortean Times messageboard Lucianarchy claimed success, based on yesterday's attack in Falluja.

Bonzo

15th February 2004, 08:01 AM

El Greco

15th February 2004, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
But I do still have the strong perception that a particualrly awful attack against a 'Western' target is in there for 14th Feb. I fear that there could be hundreds + of casualties.

Bold mine

Darat

15th February 2004, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by El Greco

Bold mine

Seems to have also missed the fact that the 14th attack being claimed as the event wasn't in fact against a "Western" target but we shouldn't let mere details like that count against a prediction...

CFLarsen

15th February 2004, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by JamesM
In case anyone's curious about Lucianarchy's own assessment of the prediction, on the Fortean Times messageboard Lucianarchy claimed success, based on yesterday's attack in Falluja.

http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=13511

It wasn't against a "Western" target. To predict something violent anywhere on the planet is not a prediction....it's a certainty.

Darat

15th February 2004, 08:19 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen

http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=13511

It wasn't against a "Western" target. To predict something violent anywhere on the planet is not a prediction....it's a certainty.

Claus and I at the same time pointed out the same flaw...

That can't just be coincidence - what are the probabilities against that happening? They must be astronomical.

JamesM

15th February 2004, 08:28 AM

It can be argued (as Lucianarchy appears to) that as the security apparatus of the current Iraqi regime was installed by the coalition, it is a Western target.

Personally, I think that's a stretch too far.

Interesting Ian

15th February 2004, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by Darat

Claus and I at the same time pointed out the same flaw...

That can't just be coincidence - what are the probabilities against that happening? They must be astronomical.

Why can't it be coincidental?? :rolleyes:

geni

15th February 2004, 08:30 AM

the attack does not ferfill Lucianarchy's perdiction because it does not appear to have been planned as far back as november.

BillHoyt

15th February 2004, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian

Why can't it be coincidental?? :rolleyes:

I think PostingWhilst Intoxicated is serious. :wow2:

ceptimus

15th February 2004, 10:54 AM

Wow! My predictions got a mention on the Fortean Times board. Apparently I'm an 'Arrogant Prick'.

Anyway, I didn't do too well. Pantani was found dead. But while he was famous in the realms of cycle-racing, he was not generally well-known. As far as I know, no one really famous got married. There was bound to be an important sports result, so that prediction didn't really matter.

I've only heard of one washing machine break down yet, and that was a day early. Somehow, I think Luci would have claimed that as a 'hit', but maybe that's my arrogance. :)

So I have to admit, Luci's prediction was more accurate than mine, but like the others, I think claiming a police station in Iraq as a 'Western Target', is a painful stretch. Maybe the attack was being planned as far back as November? Who (other than Luci) knows, and would be prepared to tell?

Bonzo

15th February 2004, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by ceptimus
Wow! My predictions got a mention on the Fortean Times board. Apparently I'm an 'Arrogant Prick'.

I'm jealous! I can't wait to elevated to the pantheon of prickdom by the Fortean Times.:)

El Greco

15th February 2004, 11:16 AM

Originally posted by ceptimus
Anyway, I didn't do too well. Pantani was found dead. But while he was famous in the realms of cycle-racing, he was not generally well-known. As far as I know, no one really famous got married.

No, you did very well. It's just that your predictions were sports-specific. Mirella Maniani (gold medal in Javelin throw in World Championship in Paris, 2003) got married yesterday, Feb 14. And of course she's famous in the realms of javelin-throwing.

thaiboxerken

15th February 2004, 12:16 PM

What amazes me is the fact that people at the Fortean forum are calling themselves sceptics. LOL. They are actually taking Luci's "prediction" as credible evidence of RV ability. What a bunch of morons.

Pyrrho

15th February 2004, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by Interesting Ian

WOW!! Yes. Yet further evidence for the skeptical belief system. Idiots :rolleyes:

<table cellspacing=1 cellpadding=4 bgcolor=#660066 border=0><tr><td bgcolor=#660066><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=#ffffff size=1>Posted by Pyrrho:</font></td></tr><tr><td bgcolor=white><font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color=black size=2>This post has been reported for rudeness. Yes, it is rude, but Forum rules do not prohibit rudeness.
[i]</font></td></tr></table>

!Xx+-Rational-+xX!

15th February 2004, 06:27 PM

Mercutio

15th February 2004, 06:33 PM

Originally posted by ceptimus

Anyway, I didn't do too well. Pantani was found dead. But while he was famous in the realms of cycle-racing, he was not generally well-known. As far as I know, no one really famous got married. There was bound to be an important sports result, so that prediction didn't really matter.
This is how I find out Pantani is dead? I am so depressed. This silly thread is so pointless. If predictions meant anything, somebody would have foretold this specifically. This is huge! If Luci did not see this, it is like not seeing your hand in front of your eyes. The pirate, dead? I need a drink...

The Mighty Thor

16th February 2004, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
What amazes me is the fact that people at the Fortean forum are calling themselves sceptics. LOL. They are actually taking Luci's "prediction" as credible evidence of RV ability. What a bunch of morons.

Apparently, they are sceptics with a 'c' (soft sceptics) while we at JREF are skeptics with a 'k' (hard skeptics). They seem to be very warm and fuzzy over there, while we are hard-hearted and brutal.

In other words, a bunch of woos decide to call themselves sceptics and pretend to be 'experimenting' in 'psi' while avoiding the rules and realities of scientific enquiry. There are exceptions, but the forum rules don't allow aggressive questioning of woos -- it seems to hurt their feelings and upset the vibes.

Luci is doing an RV or telepathy experiment with them over the internet. Results are so far 'slow' in coming in -- i.e. they were not what the woos wanted. One real skeptic interrupted the flow of psychic energy by asking a question in the thread that apparently zonked Luci's wondrous powers for a time.

The thread there on the dreaded Ouija board is such a hoot. Many folk telling of the horrific events they experienced with boards when they were kids. Then all admitting that they've been so scared since, they never tried it as adults. The tales are like those told by kids round the campfire, late at night, perhaps away from parents for the first time. I guess these folk never get past that stage of puerile credulity and exaggerated story-telling.

Yet, I still get a feeling that these folks have an agenda that is slightly unnerving. They sure seem to hate Randi with a passion. Luci's blatant lies and spectacular failures here, and his retreat to a safe haven is cowardly.

I predict that he will be back here though, missing the cut and thrust of JREF, completely ignoring the Larsen lists. and spouting some more rubbish.

malc

CFLarsen

16th February 2004, 03:53 AM

My reply to Lucianarchy on Fortean (http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=336779#post336779)

chillzero

16th February 2004, 04:05 AM

Originally posted by JamesM
In case anyone's curious about Lucianarchy's own assessment of the prediction, on the Fortean Times messageboard Lucianarchy claimed success, based on yesterday's attack in Falluja.

So Luci's still around somewhere then?
The last post placed him him/her on this board was a bit weird.

The Mighty Thor

16th February 2004, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen
My reply to Lucianarchy on Fortean (http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=336779#post336779)

Well put! But I don't think you'll be getting involved in a 'group hug' with the Forteans anytime soon, CF. (see a couple of posts before yours in that thread). How deluded can these people be?

:)

malc

JamesM

16th February 2004, 04:44 AM

Originally posted by malcolmdl
They seem to be very warm and fuzzy over there, while we are hard-hearted and brutal.
The mean and nasty skeptic is a favourite Fortean trope. It never gets tired for them. And with the best will in the world, the two threads here that Luci linked to does not show the JREF in a very flattering light - it's an absolute gift to them.

In other words, a bunch of woos decide to call themselves sceptics and pretend to be 'experimenting' in 'psi' while avoiding the rules and realities of scientific enquiry.
I don't think they're claiming it has any scientific validity. And characterising them all as "woos" is as misplaced as the tired Fortean strawman of the big bad skeptic.

I guess these folk never get past that stage of puerile credulity and exaggerated story-telling.
Some people find such things interesting, irrespective of its objective reality. Think of it as modern folklore. Personally, I really enjoyed the ouija board thread, even though I very much doubt that it's a way to contact the dead.

The Mighty Thor

16th February 2004, 05:09 AM

And characterising them all as "woos" is as misplaced as the tired Fortean strawman of the big bad skeptic.

I did say there were exceptions -- you were one I noticed.

But, if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck . . .

I can see how the Ouija thread might be interesting to a modern folklorist, of course. But it was all anecdotal, and usually based on early-teen experience, or hearsay about such.

I'll even admit that a couple of the stories gave me a chill up the spine, like any good scary tale or movie should. So, for that instant, I'm obviously taking the story in. I know that goosebumps are an artefact, a vestigial remnant of evolution, but i still get them if properly primed.

I guess that a bunch of die-hard skeptics playing with the board might even find that the planchette still moves due to unconscious input from the participants. But I reckon it would not spell out anything meaningful and the result would be amusement rather than amazement.

malc

JamesM

16th February 2004, 05:43 AM

Originally posted by malcolmdl
I can see how the Ouija thread might be interesting to a modern folklorist, of course. But it was all anecdotal, and usually based on early-teen experience, or hearsay about such.
I'm sure most Forteans would also acknowledge that. The fact that people report such things is what interests them, whether it really happened as those people report is less interesting to them than it would be to a skeptic.

As an example, if it turns out that aliens haven't been visiting the earth, then most skeptics will write off the UFO phenomenon as another example of human stupidity. However, for Forteans, the variety of experiences that can be categorised as UFO-related, the parallels between UFOs and other strange phenomena, and the cultural patterns that emerge from their study, will be a thing of joy forever. Nonetheless, it's worth noting that a lot of the modern UFO debunking is done by Fortean researchers - David Clarke & Andy Roberts, and the Fortean UFO magazine Magonia are both good examples.

The differences between Forteans and skeptics (perhaps smaller than you'd think) and the butting of heads that occurs whenever they meet is quite illuminating, but I think that's a subject for another thread.

LFTKBS

16th February 2004, 06:15 AM

According to FTmb, sometimes when JREFers disagree they get really up in each other's faces. So?

I'd rather play with the big boys and girls and have my assumptions questioned than be wrong about everything just for the sake of group hugs. :rolleyes:

Thanz

16th February 2004, 06:16 AM

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK.

I feel something like an attack is being planned for 14th February 2004. Don't know where.

I hope I'm wrong. If not, I hope that this message may alert vigilance around that time.

Obviousy, Lucianarchy's call for extra vigilance around that time was successful. Lucianarchy managed to prevent the attack!

BillHoyt

16th February 2004, 06:32 AM

Originally posted by Thanz

Obviousy, Lucianarchy's call for extra vigilance around that time was successful. Lucianarchy managed to prevent the attack!

So he would have needed to extend his claim from RV through prescience and onto mind control? No wonder he left the JREF board.

Thanz

16th February 2004, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by BillHoyt

So he would have needed to extend his claim from RV through prescience and onto mind control? No wonder he left the JREF board.
No, no mind control needed. Obviously, those in the know saw Lucianarchy's post, and in awe of Luci's powers practiced extra vigilence to prevent the horrific attack.

Luci's powers have saved us all!

BillHoyt

16th February 2004, 07:27 AM

Originally posted by Thanz

No, no mind control needed. Obviously, those in the know saw Lucianarchy's post, and in awe of Luci's powers practiced extra vigilence to prevent the horrific attack.

Luci's powers have saved us all!

All hail Luci!

BillHoyt

16th February 2004, 07:29 AM

Alas, Luci has left the JREF board! sic transit gloria luci

Drooper

17th February 2004, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by BillHoyt
Alas, Luci has left the JREF board! sic transit gloria luci

Strangely, he also seemed to have legged it from the FT board once his RV claims came under challenge.

thaiboxerken

17th February 2004, 01:39 AM

Actually, I think Luci is claiming an attack in Iraq as his predicted event. Looking at the fortean thread, I don't recall seeing ANY doubts about Luci's prediction or superpowers.

What is a sceptic without doubt? A believer.

El Greco

17th February 2004, 01:45 AM

Actually there are 1-2 posters in the Fortean boards who have read this thread and have discredited Luci's prediction powers. But noone seems to even answer their posts, since there are a couple of big time idiots over there who monopolize the discussion.

Ersby

17th February 2004, 01:58 AM

I have to agree. Claus has let himself be sidetracked into any number of unimportant tiffs and thus the main topic has been forgotten. Poor show.

CFLarsen

17th February 2004, 02:43 AM

Originally posted by Ersby
I have to agree. Claus has let himself be sidetracked into any number of unimportant tiffs and thus the main topic has been forgotten. Poor show.

I am not particularly satisfied myself...even though it was kinda funny the way Lucianarchy demanded evidence of his gender, and then asked that no such information would be sought. :rolleyes: :)

Let's see if people want to discuss whether Lucianarchy has paranormal powers or not. Strangely, a "fortean" apparently does not seek evidence either way, so I wonder why they are there in the first place.

Hm.

Darat

17th February 2004, 03:11 AM

Originally posted by Ersby
I have to agree. Claus has let himself be sidetracked into any number of unimportant tiffs and thus the main topic has been forgotten. Poor show.

I agree that the side tracking is annoying however I'm very surprised people on the FTMB have not noticed the contradiction that they've created.

The Big Liar is saying that Claus must show his proof of its gender or retract his claim about its gender, but Claus has now been told if he does so he will be banned...

I just love it when one attacker quotes forum rules about rudeness and personal attacks and ignores the name calling on the "regulars" side. (I may have missed it but I didn't notice any insults being flung by Claus at the FTMB regulars.)

As an aside and because it seems to be mentioned quite a few times a personal opinion about the "tone" of Claus's posts.

Claus's tone is very direct and can seem abrasive but I also know, after working with many Danes for many years, what can seem very direct and abrasive to British ears is quite often just the normal tone of a plain speaking Dane. (Note: I'm not saying that that Claus isn't quite capable of being rude, obnoxious and abrasive at times ;) )

Ersby

17th February 2004, 05:16 AM

Claus's tone is very direct and can seem abrasive but I also know, after working with many Danes for many years, what can seem very direct and abrasive to British ears is quite often just the normal tone of a plain speaking Dane.

I hadn't thought of that. I used to know a Danish lady, and although she was very sweet and all, you still got the impression that she was slightly annoyed about something.

Meanwhile, I'm a little disappointed at the FTMB. The Fortean Times is, in the UK, the only source of skepticism easily available, and its Fortean Studies books are quite excellent. I hope the "It happened to me" board has a fluffier set of rules than the rest of the forums since it's based on personal experience and all that.

As it turns out, I can't register anyway.

CFLarsen

17th February 2004, 07:00 AM

Tsk, tsk....I was just banned.

Try to guess the reason... (http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/showthread.php?s=&postid=337467#post337467)

Dragonrock

17th February 2004, 07:04 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen

I am not particularly satisfied myself...even though it was kinda funny the way Lucianarchy demanded evidence of his gender, and then asked that no such information would be sought. :rolleyes: :)

Let's see if people want to discuss whether Lucianarchy has paranormal powers or not. Strangely, a "fortean" apparently does not seek evidence either way, so I wonder why they are there in the first place.

Hm.

I say we hijack this thread and change it's subject to be the study of Luci's sex or lack thereof.

Also, as a side note, I find myself pronouncing his/her name as "Loochy" and not "Loosy". I'm not sure why I added an invisible H but I did.

Undodog

17th February 2004, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Try to guess the reason
Was it because you didn't provide evidence that there is no evidence of Luci's claims? :)

Ah well, Luci is alot happier among those Fortean sceptics with 'open minds' that are trying to help him/her/it fit the attacks to the vision.

"why did you spend so much time and energy with those tw*ts at the Randi board? We're much nicer."
Hmm, clearly.

CFLarsen

17th February 2004, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by Undodog
Was it because you didn't provide evidence that there is no evidence of Luci's claims? :)

Well, that may be the real reason, but not the official one. :)

Officially, I was banned for asking Lucianarchy's gender. But after I had been warned not to do so, I never asked Lucianarchy for his gender again.

I simply did a recap of the situation, and concluded that it was an unresolved matter. And got banned, because I had agreed "not to pursue this matter any further in any way".

This is not correct. The moderator had warned me not to ask Lucianarchy for his gender again, which I didn't do after that. I was not warned never to mention the contradiction again.

Strange....

JamesM

17th February 2004, 08:09 AM

That's a shame. I thought you were doing pretty well there for a while, Claus.

JamesM

17th February 2004, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by CFLarsen
This is not correct. The moderator had warned me not to ask Lucianarchy for his gender again, which I didn't do after that. I was not warned never to mention the contradiction again.

Strange....
Oh come on, Claus. Personally, I thought it was pretty obvious what you were being asked not to do. It broke the spirit - if not the exact word - of the warning.

Darat

17th February 2004, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by JamesM

Oh come on, Claus. Personally, I thought it was pretty obvious what you were being asked not to do. It broke the spirit - if not the exact word - of the warning.

But isn't it strange that the Big Liar wasn't at least warned for this?:

...snip...

The reason why I asked for evidence is because I believe it is risky to self disclose gender on an internet forum such as this. It is also completely irrelevant, but that's beside the point. I have never, repeat, never disclosed my gender on the internet. If SR has any evidence at all, I would like to see it as he is implying that I am a liar. If it has been forged, then I most definately want to see it. Such provision does not affect the issue of the self-disclosure of my gender.

...snip...

Which came after the post from their moderator warning Claus of a banning and after Claus had said "Very well, then".

So it appears it is fine for the Big Liar to bring up the matter, even though regulars seem to think it wasn't!:

...snip...

Should be clear enough to SkepticReport and Lucianarchy.

No speculation as to the identity of others and no flaming, or provocation of others, either.

This isn't about any individual members. It's the rules, Message Board Policy.

And, the Moderator's decision has to be respected.

...snip...

Looking through the thread, after the warning I guess it wasn't provocative for the Big Liar to repeatedly bring up the subject that Claus was told he would be banned for if he "badgered" the Big Liar with again. Hmmm....

Have to admit I hadn’t looked at the FTMB for quite awhile and started to look at it when it was mentioned in this thread. At first I thought it looked interesting. But after seeing how they treat newcomers who don’t “sing from the same hymn sheet” I don’t think I’ll bother, never seen so much hostility with no cause.

ceptimus

17th February 2004, 09:13 AM

Originally posted by Darat
But after seeing how they treat newcomers who don’t “sing from the same hymn sheet” I don’t think I’ll bother, never seen so much hostility with no cause. I think they have exactly the same view about 'our' JREF forum. And they may even have a point...

We do tend to beat up a bit on 'believer' newbies. I think that is a bad thing, personally.

El Greco

17th February 2004, 09:16 AM

Originally posted by ceptimus
I think they have exactly the same view about 'our' JREF forum. And they may even have a point...

We do tend to beat up a bit on 'believer' newbies. I think that is a bad thing, personally.

They are never banned though. Never.

JamesM

17th February 2004, 09:28 AM

Originally posted by Darat
But isn't it strange that the Big Liar wasn't at least warned for this?
Not to me, really. Claus was gunning for Lucianarchy from the get-go. You can debate whether he's rude or just direct or whatever (and I've been called impolite there, too), but the only threads anyone's likely to have read about this place are this one and the ladybrook one, two rather aggressive examples.

Then up pops Claus on the FTMB and makes his usual - ahem - no nonsense posts. What are they going to think? Luci has been perfectly even-tempered (for the most part) on the FTMB. And Luci takes part in the discussions, Claus looked like he was just there to have a go at Luci. They were bound to circle the wagons and get all defensive. I couldn't imagine any other possible outcome.

If Claus's aim was to let Luci know he didn't think much of the prediction, fair enough, mission accomplished. If it was to have a discussion about skepticism, or to promote a bit of critical thinking about Luci's supposed skills, I'm sorry, it was a miserable failure.

never seen so much hostility with no cause.
They say exactly the same thing about here!

I suggest refraining from making a judgement about the forum based on one thread and the participation of one skeptic, who appeared, on occasion - rightly or wrongly - to be trolling somewhat.

Darat

17th February 2004, 09:31 AM

CFLarsen

17th February 2004, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by JamesM
Oh come on, Claus. Personally, I thought it was pretty obvious what you were being asked not to do. It broke the spirit - if not the exact word - of the warning.

Sorry, I disagree. I was specifically requested not to ask Lucicanarchy for his gender (although he could ask for my evidence of his gender...). Nobody said that I couldn't mention the Catch-22.

As Darat noted, Lucianarchy could mention it, and others too. They were not warned.

If warnings are not clear, then they can be abused. But then, this warning was very clear, but was abused anyway...

Darat

17th February 2004, 09:39 AM

Originally posted by JamesM
...snip...
They say exactly the same thing about here!

I suggest refraining from making a judgement about the forum based on one thread and the participation of one skeptic, who appeared, on occasion - rightly or wrongly - to be trolling somewhat.

I'm aware of that and admit to being at least slightly sardonic when I made that comment. But I have read quite few threads over there (not just the Claus one) and I don’t think it is a friendly board, unless you are of a certain mindset. Which I know can be said about here as well. But two wrongs don’t make a right.

And as someone else pointed out at least here banning is only done to prevent damage. Remember the Big Liar has never been banned despite insulting Linda rather nastily for no reason, despite then editing the very post that it insulted Linda in and then lying by saying it had never insulted her!

But it is their board and of course they can do what they like with it but I do wonder how long it will take them to learn that the Big Liar has no hesitation to lie and attempt to deceive whenever it thinks it can get away with it?

El Greco

17th February 2004, 09:44 AM

Originally posted by JamesM
I suggest refraining from making a judgement about the forum based on one thread and the participation of one skeptic, who appeared, on occasion - rightly or wrongly - to be trolling somewhat.

I had been making judgements about individual posters, not the forum, up until to the point where Claus was banned for a reason that people here wouldn't even blink. Then, I made my judgement about the forum too.

JamesM

17th February 2004, 10:13 AM

Originally posted by El Greco
I had been making judgements about individual posters, not the forum, up until to the point where Claus was banned for a reason that people here wouldn't even blink. Then, I made my judgement about the forum too.
It's possible for the rules to be different in other forums and for them not to be necessarily inferior. For example, you can swear at the FTMB.

No one there is banned for being a skeptic. What you can be banned for is speculating about the identity of another poster. I'm pretty sure it would be frowned upon here, too. Claus got a bit of raw deal, but let's face it, he wasn't going to get the benefit of the doubt and that's down to the attitude he projected. I've got a lot of time for Claus, so I say that as an observation, not as a criticism.

Forteanism is a very broad church, it runs the gamut from believing to skepticism. But what happened here was a defensive reaction. If you come on too strongly skeptical, they will push back the other way. The same would have happened if if Claus had been a creationist or conspiracy theorist, but in the opposite direction.

Tricky

17th February 2004, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by JamesM

It's possible for the rules to be different in other forums and for them not to be necessarily inferior. For example, you can swear at the FTMB.
Well, that's an improvement :rolleyes:

Originally posted by JamesM
No one there is banned for being a skeptic. What you can be banned for is speculating about the identity of another poster. I'm pretty sure it would be frowned upon here, too.
Not the identity. The sex. That happens her all the time. No one has ever been banned for it.

Originally posted by JamesM
Forteanism is a very broad church, it runs the gamut from believing to skepticism. But what happened here was a defensive reaction. If you come on too strongly skeptical, they will push back the other way. The same would have happened if if Claus had been a creationist or conspiracy theorist, but in the opposite direction.
Ah, a nice middle-of-the-road board that throws out all the extremes, even if they have interesting things to say. Well I don't need my boards kept "friendly". I'll take JREF, thank you.

Darat

17th February 2004, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by JamesM

...snip...

The same would have happened if if Claus had been a creationist or conspiracy theorist, but in the opposite direction.

Can't resist this one James ;)

Any evidence that this would happen? Has it happened in the past and can you point to the thread?

Also (serious question this time) has there been other cases of a banning like Claus's? I.e. one poster is told they will be banned if they talk about a subject again but the complainer can continue to talk about it and not even get a warning?

JamesM

17th February 2004, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by Tricky

Well, that's an improvement :rolleyes:
Don't feel the need to swear here, myself. It was merely an example.

Not the identity. The sex. That happens her all the time. No one has ever been banned for it.
I know. I'm not trying to defend the rule. Gender is part of someone's identity, a necessary if not sufficient, component. Personally, I can see how some people might be uncomfortable about such things. I recall several discussions here about whether people should make their genders known. and lots of people didn't want to. But the point here is that there's a rule about it, and it's applied to everyone, believer or skeptic. It's not used to stifle dissent. It should be perfectly possible to be a skeptic on the FTMB and not be banned.

Ah, a nice middle-of-the-road board that throws out all the extremes, even if they have interesting things to say.
How do you conclude that? I said it was broad. I'm not talking about administrative actions, I'm talking about how the members will act if you behave aggressively. I'm not defending their actions towards Claus, but I am not terribly suprised. We see the reverse happen here all too often, so I don't think it's surprising it happens elsewhere. I've not asked you to post on the FTMB or to abandoned the JREF board, I am merely pointing out that it is not a haven for addle-pated creduloids where skeptics will be run out of town.

Darat

17th February 2004, 10:43 AM

Have to say there have been some reasonable posters over there over the last couple of hours (excepting the Big Liar, who I can see has already started to lie to them.).

I've even posted this:

"And despite my less then charitable comments on the JREF about this place perhaps we could just try to be good cyber-neighbours? You know nod “good morning” to each other but not be too judgmental of what we each do behind our own front-doors?"

They do not claim to have the same intent as this board and do not claim to have the same set of rules so it is bit silly I suppose for both sets of regulars to try to pick each other apart because we are “different” .

(But I still think their mod was inconsistent in the treatment of Claus and the Big Liar - so there :p )

(Edited a hasty placed started.)

JamesM

17th February 2004, 11:00 AM

Originally posted by Darat
Any evidence that this would happen? Has it happened in the past and can you point to the thread?
I can't provide anything that would be convincing in terms of specific threads. I make that assessment based on my time there, having noticed eminently sensible and rational discussions from many of the posters, that I feel no skeptic would complain about. Strange phenomena is not, in general, accepted at face value. But it is enjoyed in a way that I think skeptics would find strange, which I think leads to misperceptions on both sides.

But if you think I've overstated the case, I will certainly withdraw that statement. I don't want to seem like a cheerleader for the FTMB. I spend much more time here than I do reading threads there, so I must be more skeptic than Fortean.

Also (serious question this time) has there been other cases of a banning like Claus's? I.e. one poster is told they will be banned if they talk about a subject again but the complainer can continue to talk about it and not even get a warning?
I don't know. I've never seen it, I try and stay out of this sort of thing. The moderation is much heavier than here, but relatively even-handed. FWIW, I also think Luci merited a warning, but from the POV of a FTMB regular, I think things would look rather different.