Suppose the USA went away?

[Ed]

I read a lot of moaning about the US here. To me most of it sounds like it is "the thing to do" as opposed to reasoned critisism that maintains some level of consistancy.

That said, I personally think that we should be more isolationist.

I really did not give a ***** about evil Saddam any more than I cared about Idi Amin or the Tutu's and Woo-woo's or whatever in that godforsaken "country" in Africa. I would be perfectly happy if the rest of the world just sorted out their own problems without spending my money on them.

Suppose the USA became really, really isolationist? Suppose we choose not to export a whole lot. Suppose we really, really began the process of making us energy self-suffient. So, for example, the stability of the despots that might be supported by US interests in the Mideast would be looking for new suger daddys. Would the people that represent more progressive ideologies here suggest "let 'em fall" or would they engage in Real Poitik?

What would the world do, or rather, how would they progress if Microsoft, Intel, Sun, and other companies were precluded from trading internationally? How would jet fleets be maintained if the US would not help?

Suppose we got really pissed, took our ball and went home. After you all congratulaed yourselves, what would happen? how would you respond if NK invaded SK? China, Taiwan? Germany, Europe? How would the peace loving people of the EU deal with those eventualities?

Just curious.

[Grammatron]

Originally posted by Ed
I read a lot of moaning about the US here. To me most of it sounds like it is "the thing to do" as opposed to reasoned critisism that maintains some level of consistancy.

That said, I personally think that we should be more isolationist.

I really did not give a ***** about evil Saddam any more than I cared about Idi Amin or the Tutu's and Woo-woo's or whatever in that godforsaken "country" in Africa. I would be perfectly happy if the rest of the world just sorted out their own problems without spending my money on them.

Suppose the USA became really, really isolationist? Suppose we choose not to export a whole lot. Suppose we really, really began the process of making us energy self-suffient. So, for example, the stability of the despots that might be supported by US interests in the Mideast would be looking for new suger daddys. Would the people that represent more progressive ideologies here suggest "let 'em fall" or would they engage in Real Poitik?

What would the world do, or rather, how would they progress if Microsoft, Intel, Sun, and other companies were precluded from trading internationally? How would jet fleets be maintained if the US would not help?

Suppose we got really pissed, took our ball and went home. After you all congratulaed yourselves, what would happen? how would you respond if NK invaded SK? China, Taiwan? Germany, Europe? How would the peace loving people of the EU deal with those eventualities?

Just curious.

Well aside from the fact that that could not happen, you are forgetting that USA will be just as f***ed as the rest of the world, if not more.

[Ed]

Originally posted by Grammatron


Well aside from the fact that that could not happen, you are forgetting that USA will be just as f***ed as the rest of the world, if not more.

Excellent answer, grasshopper. Except it was not to my question.

[Grammatron]

Originally posted by Ed


Excellent answer, grasshopper. Except it was not to my question.

I think it is; there is no real answer to your question since the situation could not be real under any foreseeable circumstances.

However, if we try and assume that such an event could happen and does happen, I think the world would be thrown into chaos for some time -- years, decades -- and at the end we would be pretty much where we started perhaps with another country in control, most likely China.

[Richard G]

Most of the world would be slaves to Russia or China.

[Suddenly]

I'm all for realpolitik. The world is a rough place. However I'll continue to think ill of the current administration's acts in Iraq not because of any qualms about the invasion per se, rather that the people in charge were complete morons about it. Not bothering to really research the culture, likely response of the masses to occupation, setting up a solid exit strategy.

It seems like none of this was done and the administration just figured God would provide and took a leap of faith. I don't think this bunch could beat Civilization III even on the "Chieftan" level.

What was the question again?

[NightG1]

Most of the companies that depend on export trade for their survival would go under. These companies employ a lot of people so their jobs would have to be replaced in an economy that would most likely be in a state of chaos. Our currency valuation depends on a worldwide market for relevence so how would you value a dollar that is no longer traded on international currency markets outside of going back on the gold-standard? I have no idea how we could bridge the gap to complete energy self-sufficiency. I think if we became really isolationist, it would take decades to accomplish and by then it would be pretty obvious what we were up to and other large scale economies would be in a position to either stop us or retaliate since we would be weaker militarily and industrially. I think the world has changed far too much and become much too small for a country with an economy the size of the US to isolate itself from the rest of the world.

[The Don]

Well, for a start the United States would find it difficult to source those materials which it cannot produce itself. I forget what these are but I believe the U.S. imports 100% of stuff like Rhoduim, Vanadium etc.

Foreign countries would be forced to re-patriate their U.S. based investments. Currently, the U.S. trade defecit is funded by the fact that the countries (like China and hisorically Japan) have been prepared to invest their income in the states rather than re-patriating it. This would cause United States equity prices and commercial property prices to collapse as the money flows out. The dollar would plummet as dollars are converted back into Yen, Yuan, Euros and Pounds.

The United States would be unable to fund its budget defecit. Currently this is maintained by selling government bonds, the great majority of which are held by overseas investors. Because there is no flow of goods into the U.S., the money won't be there to continue to buy these bonds. U.S. treasury bond values will collapse and the government will be forced to close the budget defecit either by raising taxes or by lowering spending.

A number of United States organisations (like Microsoft, Intel) will re-locate to countries of convenience like Switzerland, UK, Japan so that they can continue to trade internationally. Theis will cause a net outflow of jobs and will start a brain drain of the most able.

The lack of imported goods will mean that inflation will start to increase, particularly for those goods which are primarily manufactured overseas (the United States in 2000 was a net exporter only of a range of agricultural goods, everything else she was a net importer - source the World Almanac and Book of facts and this website http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/www/index.html ). Until such time as U.S. manufacturing can gear up to supply them, these goods will be subject to runaway inflation as the current levels fo demand chase fewer and fewer goods. Prices for many things will start to stabilise after a few months/years though at higher levels due to the fact that U.S. labour costs are relatively high (at least compared to the Far East).

In order to help support certain internal industries (like airlines), the United States will be forced to introduce restrictive trade practices (like preventing foreign owned airlines flying within the U.S.). The response will be for foreign countries to reciprocate and the U.S. airline industry will be forced to streamline. A lack of U.S. exports will cripple Boeing who are currently losing market share to companies like Airbus, Bombardier and Embaraer. Their inability to sell overseas will exclude them from the only growth markets around (the far east and middle east).

As the United States becomes more isolationist, the amount of influence it can bring to bear will reduce. Because there are no trade sanctions or financial political influence it could bring to bear, the only way the United States can bring influence to bear is militarily. A series of minor international scuffles leaves a briiding sense of resentment in the Untied States "why are our brave soldiers dying overseas ?". The United States withdraws from the world arena. THis is convenient as defenc(s)e spending has to reduce to help balance the budget. The power vacuum internationally is filled by Europe, China, Japan and the United Islamist States. THe United States becomes a quaint backwater (rather like Pennsylvania Dutch country).

Because of the loack of competition from overseas, U.S. manufacturing becomes complacent (if you want evidence, look at how imported automobiles had an impact) and ceases to innovate.



I think this is what is meant by f***ed

RichardG, sir you are an ass - go play in your sandpit with your GI Joe

[Mr Manifesto]

Originally posted by Ed
I read a lot of moaning about the US here. To me most of it sounds like it is "the thing to do" as opposed to reasoned critisism that maintains some level of consistancy.

That said, I personally think that we should be more isolationist.

I really did not give a ***** about evil Saddam any more than I cared about Idi Amin or the Tutu's and Woo-woo's or whatever in that godforsaken "country" in Africa. I would be perfectly happy if the rest of the world just sorted out their own problems without spending my money on them.

Suppose the USA became really, really isolationist? Suppose we choose not to export a whole lot. Suppose we really, really began the process of making us energy self-suffient. So, for example, the stability of the despots that might be supported by US interests in the Mideast would be looking for new suger daddys. Would the people that represent more progressive ideologies here suggest "let 'em fall" or would they engage in Real Poitik?

What would the world do, or rather, how would they progress if Microsoft, Intel, Sun, and other companies were precluded from trading internationally? How would jet fleets be maintained if the US would not help?

Suppose we got really pissed, took our ball and went home. After you all congratulaed yourselves, what would happen? how would you respond if NK invaded SK? China, Taiwan? Germany, Europe? How would the peace loving people of the EU deal with those eventualities?

Just curious.

Next week: Ed proposes solving the problem of poverty by printing more money.