Danger in health care polling... for the GOP

[MattusMaximus]

Americans still skeptical about Obama’s plans (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/32464936/ns/politics-white_house/)

I stumbled on this just this morning, and - after reading the entire article - I saw that by looking past the headline, there is a very interesting number on handling of health care reform that people should pay careful attention to:

Obama:
approve 41%
disapprove 47%

Republicans:
approve 26%
disapprove 62%

So, after all the town hall ranting, after all the distortions, after all the blathering on rightwing talk radio, all the rightwing has been able to do is keep people skeptical of Obama's health care initiatives. They have done absolutely nothing to increase the approval of the Republican party.

If the GOP thinks that they're doing themselves any favors here simply by tearing Obama down, they need to think again.

[Praktik]

Polling is troublesome and skews the debate: (http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/08142009/profile2.html)

KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: I worry about public opinion polls coming into this environment and asking questions that may actually distort our understanding of what the public knows. Unless you start by asking the public in a poll what they know, what the baseline level of knowledge is, it doesn't matter what the public thinks ultimately about a piece of legislation or not because you can be reflecting uninformed public opinion.

But the nature of public opinion it's expressed in "USA Today" in-- at a front-page piece that appeared on Thursday of this week which says "Protests Tilt Views on Health Care Bill." Now that's reflecting the results of a poll that asked about people's response not to the health care bill but to the protests about the health care bill.

But the headline leads you to think it's about the health care bill itself. And it suggests that public opinion is now shifting dramatically away from the Obama health care reform efforts.

BILL MOYERS: So the protests seem to be making some people more sympathetic to the protesters?

KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: And potentially the press then picks that up, polls, finds that sympathy, creates a structure that suggests that health care reform initiatives are losing support. Now polls have driven press coverage which says "Obama on the defensive. Obama struggling to explain. Obama trying," when, in fact, the dynamic under that has been created by a news structure that decided to cover this in a certain way, to do polling in a certain way. And those two things played into the process to make it more difficult for the discussion to actually happen about the substance of what's going on.

DREW ALTMAN: So it's exactly right. So we have the protests, the media coverage, especially the 24-hour news cycle, follows the protests and the town meetings. Then the polls poll about the media coverage of the protests. And we create almost an alternative reality about what is occurring out there.

When you look at the real polls about where the public actually is, what you see is there's been a little bit of a tick down in public support and people are getting a little anxious as they follow the media coverage. But still the majority of the American people are for moving forward with this.

And we have seen more people begin to say, "Gee, I'm not so sure that this is good for me and my family," but it's still a small number. It's only 20, 22 percent who say, "I'm a little bit worried about this." And a much bigger number say, "I still think this is good for me and my family." And then you've got a group in the middle who's not so sure. And everyone's fighting for that group on both sides.

[Brainster]

Keep digging for that pony! Meanwhile, in the real world (http://people-press.org/report/536/white-house-gop-leaders-at-odds):

The decline in the Democratic Party’s favorable ratings has come across party lines, but the change is especially large among independents. Only 40% of independents give a favorable rating to the Democratic Party, down 12 points since April.

Independents’ views of the Republican Party have not changed since April (41% favorable then, 40% today). As a result, as many independents now express positive views of the GOP as of the Democratic Party.

[GreyICE]

Keep digging for that pony! Meanwhile, in the real world (http://people-press.org/report/536/white-house-gop-leaders-at-odds):

Meanwhile, the number of independents in the real world keeps being fed by people bailing from the Republican party.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/Gallup,%20Pew%20and%20Exit%20Party%20ID,%201972-2008.jpg

This is what is happening:

http://crookedtimber.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/200703272152.jpg

So I'd say that your independents are heading towards being the ex-republicans. No wonder you don't like population polls.

[Juniversal]

How somebody can view the Republican Party favorably with the likes of Sarah Palin, talkiing heads like Beck and Rush and there persistent opposition to anything the Democrats propose is beyond me.

[MattusMaximus]

Meanwhile, the number of independents in the real world keeps being fed by people bailing from the Republican party.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/Gallup,%20Pew%20and%20Exit%20Party%20ID,%201972-2008.jpg

This is what is happening:

http://crookedtimber.org/wp-content/uploads/2007/03/200703272152.jpg

So I'd say that your independents are heading towards being the ex-republicans. No wonder you don't like population polls.

This info also seems to be consistent with recent polling by Gallup. (http://www.gallup.com/poll/122003/Political-Party-Affiliation-States-Blue-Red-Far.aspx) All of these tactics by various right-wingers may be good for motivating the base of the GOP, but I agree that it is also putting off a lot of moderate Republicans and independents. Not only does the polling indicate this, but I have a lot of GOP & indy friends who are rather disgusted with the whole affair.

How somebody can view the Republican Party favorably with the likes of Sarah Palin, talkiing heads like Beck and Rush and there persistent opposition to anything the Democrats propose is beyond me.

Well, I think this is part of the ongoing "purge" of RINOs from the party. As I said, I know plenty of Republicans & independents who are getting thoroughly fed up with things in the GOP. There are many people on this forum (Piggy, JoeyDonuts, etc) who have publicly expressed similar feelings. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean they're going to turn around and embrace Obama or the Dems, but it does point to the shrinking problem the GOP seems to have of late.

I have to wonder how much of a political calculation this is by the GOP leadership: perhaps they're banking on energizing their base to offset the losses of moderates when it comes to next year's elections? Personally, I think that's a losing strategy, because no party holds power for long in the U.S. without the political middle.

[T.A.M.]

Interesting.

Today on MSNBC I saw a listing that compared those who when asked the question,

"Do you support the public option", the number was somewhere in the mid 40's, but when the question was asked,

"Do you support having a public option as a choice along with regular health insurance", the number was up in the 60's.

So really, as we all know, it depends on how the question is asked.

TAM:)

[MattusMaximus]

Exactly. The more and more I think about it, the more I have to conclude that much of this whole affair is the media attempting to fill the news hole during a slow month.

ETA: Btw, do you have a link to that MSNBC poll?