Upset about lack of financial apocolypses? CTers have you covered - doom next month!

[LightinDarkness]

The CTers seem to be VERY upset at the lack of economic/financial apocalypses. After the peak of the financial crises CT boards were flooded with people that were literally hoping and praying for the collapse of the economic system and telling everyone they were stacking gold bars in their car and literally fleeing for the hills. Doom mongers every where trumpeted that this was it, and the end was truly at hand.

And then no apocalypse occurred. Economic numbers improved. Stock numbers went up. CTers began to get very angry and upset with their doom prophets. Where was the promised doom? Why was the economy not collapsing?

A new set of fear mongers emerged to replace the old ones. One of these was Karl Denniger - a market analyst who, previously, was actually quite rational. Then he got a touch of CT fame by doom mongering, and found that legions of CTers would hold on to his every word and worship him as a god as long as he did one thing: predict total and complete doom.

Since then, Karl has been spreading doom mongering monthly, and DOOM is only one month away. In July, he told us there would be bank holidays in August and it would be the beginning of the end. Who cares that it didn't happen? It was the kind of DOOM the CTers love and embrace. Given his 100% wrong streak, he is now predicting utter doom for October and ATS has already picked it up and lapping it up - making preparations to flee the city, inform the sheeple, etc.:
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread501795/pg1

And then October will pass and no DOOM will have occured. And Karl will predict something for November, and we'll start this all over again.

[zaphod2016]

Gold is at $1017/oz USD right now.

Not exactly the end of the world, but damn interesting.

What do you make of this rally, LID?

[MG1962]

Gold is at $1017/oz USD right now.

Not exactly the end of the world, but damn interesting.

What do you make of this rally, LID?

Driven by market forces. Car loads of gold bars heading for the hills. Mind you I would probably take something I could eat or trade. Aint going to be use for gold when the economic system collapses

[zaphod2016]

Driven by market forces. Car loads of gold bars heading for the hills.

Well, duh. ;)

What are those market forces? Why are people rushing to buy? Who is doing all the buying?

More important: is it another bubble, or a new plateau?

[Toke]

Economic doom is pretty rare, even the Wiemar republic had some economics working for the common people, if nothing else they could use it for kindling.

[LightinDarkness]

Gold is at $1017/oz USD right now.

Not exactly the end of the world, but damn interesting.

What do you make of this rally, LID?

Its not really that unusual. Gold bugs and CTs made a big deal about it because it crossed over the $1,000 mark, but its done that before and will do so again - the actual rally (in percentage terms) when looked at with the stock market really is pretty low. Anyone investing over the past 6 months would have made much more in equities.

Two reasons for gold price increases and related CT gold bug doom orgasms:

1) September is a huge gold buying month for eastern cultures. Due to the amount of cultural holidays coming up, and the importance of gold as gift for many of those holidays, every time at this year gold price goes up due to supply and demand.

2) Gold's role has changed from being a haven of fear mongers for those hedging against the dollar. Since most large firms are pulling out of the dollar and throwing their assets at equities now, the dollar has gone down - in response, some of that money has moved into gold. Gold is in a bubble just like real estate is - its going to go down and go down quick. And the gold bugs will tell us all the way down that its a good buy :D

Overall, gold at this price makes gold bugs feel good but isn't really a good predictor of DOOM.

[zaphod2016]

Two reasons for gold price increases and related CT gold bug doom orgasms:

1) September is a huge gold buying month for eastern cultures. Due to the amount of cultural holidays coming up, and the importance of gold as gift for many of those holidays, every time at this year gold price goes up due to supply and demand.

I did not know this. I'd love to know more details (i.e. anything about this written by an analyst)


Gold is in a bubble just like real estate is [was?] - its going to go down and go down quick.

Was that a typo, or do you expect a real estate bubble is about to pop (again)?

[LightinDarkness]

I get alot of analyst research reports from the business school (right across the courtyard! :D) and the one I have on my desk is from Goldman sachs saying sell gold - quite a long brief. I can't find it online - I think its one of the ones you have to pay for.

Although I think MarketWatch is a little bit pro-doom and gloom, heres an article by one of their people describing some of the factors though:

Gold tends to do well in September because it's the run-up to several events that can drive up gold consumption.

Jewelry makers start to stock gold ahead of October's Diwali, one of India's most important religious festivals. September also kicks off the post-monsoon wedding season in India, the world's biggest gold consumer.

Jewelry makers also stock gold in September ahead of the holy month of Ramadan in Muslim countries such as the United Arab Emirates. The end of Ramadan is the Eid ul-Fitr holiday, a time for celebration and gift-giving.

Gold demand in China, the world's second-biggest consumer, also tends to rise in the months following the Oct. 1 National Day to the Chinese New Year in January or February

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-shines-in-september-historical-record-shows-2009-09-01


In reference to real estate, yes I think another bubble is coming. The government's efforts to prop up housing has created another one - although admittedly much smaller and probably not a systematic risk to the economy.

[zaphod2016]

Although I think MarketWatch is a little bit pro-doom and gloom, heres an article by one of their people describing some of the factors though:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-shines-in-september-historical-record-shows-2009-09-01

Thanks. BTW if you can point me to anything via Lexis Nexis I have access.

[MysteryMammal]

Well, duh. ;)

What are those market forces? Why are people rushing to buy? Who is doing all the buying?

More important: is it another bubble, or a new plateau?


The biggest driving force, I'd speculate, is the fact that gold now has an actual value aside from being a pretty and malleable metal. Gold is used in so many practical things these days it is not funny. Due to conductivity it is used in many electronics. Computers have a significant amount of gold in them. Gold now has a real, practical value!

http://www.npr.org/blogs/bryantpark/2008/02/old_electronics_are_a_new_gold.html

Gold: Not just for gaudy ornamentation anymore.

[LightinDarkness]

Well folks, time to bump the thread. The doom and fear mongers on ATS are nearing a orgasmic pitch:
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread513075/pg1

Everyone is stepping over themselves to offer visions of total and utter doom (TM) for October 25...none of which will happen of course. But its highly amusing (and a bit sad) to watch people get so worked up over visions of doom that have no basis in fact or reality. A summary of the doom to come upon us beginning tomorrow:


Six independent sources suggest October 25, 2009 is a critical date for the United States of America:

1) Timewave Zero

2) Web Bot Project

3) Colombian Boy Prophet

4) Russian prognosticator

5) FOX & CNN News Reports

6) Pastor Vincent Xavier



Possible outcomes include:

1) Dollar Collapse or Death

2) Obama Assassination Attempt

3) Atomic Bomb Detonated in Washington D.C.


So much doom, so little time! Financial apocalypse, mass death, nukes going off, Obama being shot at! The sources? Total CT nutcases that have been proven wrong 100% of the time (I have looked at their claim that any of this comes from fox or cnn but have not seen any evidence).

So the days will pass and nothing will happen. And then we will all jump on a new date to get excited over for DOOM.

[purplecharger]

Was wanting to live in a real life Fallout 3 scenario the logic behind #3 on the possible outcomes list?

[aviolet4u]

what's with the timewave thing? predicting gloom?

[LightinDarkness]

Timewave Zero is a long debunked computer program that CTers turn to again and again as evidence for doom..despite its documented 100% failure rate. The developer thought of it as a novelty sort of thing, which has been debunked (as far as it being able to predict anything)..the wiki on the maker and a little bit about it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terence_McKenna

Now on ATS the woos are talking about keeping their children home from school and LITERALLY preparing to flee to the hills. Remember, there has been ZERO evidence for this doomsday date and ATS has fear mongered about similar doomsdays dates at the end of every month since the beginning of 2008. They NEVER happen.

ATSers talking about keeping their kids home and preparing to flee for the hills:
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread513511/pg1

[timhau]

Anyone investing over the past 6 months would have made much more in equities.

... especially if you live in the Eurozone and your options were buying gold or investing in the Eurozone stock markets.

[aviolet4u]

thanks for the reply LightinDarkness. I was less worried last December when a prophet said that a nuke would hit NYC, which I live 15 minutes away from. Honestly if there was any truth to these predictions wouldn't you want to die instantly instead of living the after effects of such a disaster? Not only trying to survive with your family but hearing CTers say "I told you so, I told you so!" all the way to the fema camps. :rolleyes:

I blame these rapture ready people always wanted doom and gloom. They seem to pray for wanting world war. You'd think they were worshipping their satan instead. :rolleyes: Not enough rolleyes smilies for them.

[Horatius]

what's with the timewave thing? predicting gloom?



I'm more interested in the "Colombian Boy Prophet". Is he a boy, who is both Colombian, and a Prophet, or is he a prophet, who restricts himself solely to issues affecting Colombian boys? Or some other weird convolution?

[aviolet4u]

I'm more interested in the "Colombian Boy Prophet". Is he a boy, who is both Colombian, and a Prophet, or is he a prophet, who restricts himself solely to issues affecting Colombian boys? Or some other weird convolution?

What I want to know of the really religious is if they in fact have a loving God that cares so much- why don't they pray for peace and try to heal the world instead of predicting doom?

People are dying like ants in the mideast and other places yet people can't wait for something really bad to happen in the states? How cruel and vicious and bored of your spoiled life can you be when you want bombs to go off here and innocent people to die? It happens enough times in other countries but that doesn't count for them. Very thankless bunch- let them live in North Korea or Afghanistan and then come again.

[LightinDarkness]

ATSers are currently scrambling looking for something to claim that they were right about the DOOM that was supposed to happen on Sunday or Monday:

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread513531/pg24

But..but..the evidence promised doom! Legions of ATSers are saying they've had enough and if orgasmic death and destruction doesn't happen soon they will stop stocking up on food and guns!

No worries though, someone has already suggested that the new doomsday is November 21 and people are agreeing with them ;)

Its so sad and pathetic how desperately the CTers want doom that they keep picking random dates and hyping themselves up over it.

[zaphod2016]

Well, it seems I slept through another doomsday. Whoops.

While I have LID here, I'd like to pick his brain a bit.

The USD is dropping against the Euro (http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/1y?eurusd=x); we can see in this 1-year chart that after a strong rally at the start of the year, the USD is hurting. We see a similar trend in the JPY/USD (http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/1y?jpyusd=x), and other pairs.

Meanwhile, my gold and stocks are up like crazy this year. The stocks are doing better on a percentage basis, but the gold is still holding above $1k, and my last post was a full month ago.

Now for my questions (if you'll indulge me):

1. Am I witnessing a very, very slow collapse of the dollar?

2. Is a weakened USD the reason for a boost in gold/stock prices?

3. Assuming the answer to #2 is yes, am I really gaining anything right now? Is it possible to out-grow the declining USD?

[Travis]

So, to recap

1) Timewave Zero

Flawed idea, stupid and wrong

2) Web Bot Project

Interesting idea, but wrongly applied and, in this case, wrong.

3) Colombian Boy Prophet

What the hell is this?

4) Russian prognosticator

Who?

5) FOX & CNN News Reports

:rolleyes:

6) Pastor Vincent Xavier

Who? What?

[LightinDarkness]

Well, it seems I slept through another doomsday. Whoops.

While I have LID here, I'd like to pick his brain a bit.

The USD is dropping against the Euro (http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/1y?eurusd=x); we can see in this 1-year chart that after a strong rally at the start of the year, the USD is hurting. We see a similar trend in the JPY/USD (http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/1y?jpyusd=x), and other pairs.

Meanwhile, my gold and stocks are up like crazy this year. The stocks are doing better on a percentage basis, but the gold is still holding above $1k, and my last post was a full month ago.

Now for my questions (if you'll indulge me):

1. Am I witnessing a very, very slow collapse of the dollar?

2. Is a weakened USD the reason for a boost in gold/stock prices?

3. Assuming the answer to #2 is yes, am I really gaining anything right now? Is it possible to out-grow the declining USD?

Don't worry - new doom is coming November 21! :D

Gold is up for two reasons:
1) This is the historically a cyclical high season for precious metals (due to the factors mentioned previously).
2) The "end is nigh" feeling has left the markets. Gold prices have (in recent years) trended in opposite of the USD, as the dollar went up gold went down and vice versa. As the financial apocalypse prophets have now been proven wrong, more money has moved out of the dollar (which was enjoying safe haven status during the past two years) and into alternative currencies and other financial products. Given the amount of institutionalized structured trades that get triggered to buy gold when the USD goes down, a lot of that institutional trading helped bump gold prices up.

To answer your questions - with my opinions only of course (I closely watch and analyze the markets but I'm not a expert) -
1) No, you are watching global investors express happiness that the End of the World As We Know It did not occur. The dollar is a safe haven and when you don't need a safe haven it loses value against other currencies. The dollar is not going to collapse anytime in the foreseeable future. If you look at the historical charts its relative value is not lower now than it has been before.
2) Partially, IMO. Institutional trades (especially government retirement systems) who have large portions of their portfolios in value related funds also sometimes have a relatively high amount of their funds in gold related ETFs. They have structured trades to buy gold when the dollar loses value and vice versa, and when other forces drive gold up or down a sort of snowball effect happens with institutional traders.
3) I don't think so. But you shouldn't look to gain anything from gold. Precious metals are an OK investment in that everyone should have a ***SMALL*** portion of their portfolio in "its the end of the world as we know it" sort of areas, just for balance sake. But I do not think anyone should ever look to "invest" in them - gold is a value store, not a investment opportunity. As it is now I think its growing a bubble and its going to pop big time as soon as the Fed raises rates.

Again, just my opinion. It also happens to be the opinion of my finance business school colleagues, who know far more than I do about it and can explain it better. The big investment houses are starting to get scared about gold prices - they think its a bubble - and given that the big investment firms love risk taking, when they think something is too risky to make money from I take notice. I realize the gold bugs are rejoicing, but I think they are going to lose their shirt in the next year or so.

[zaphod2016]

If you look at the historical charts its relative value is not lower now than it has been before.

Can you link to one such chart? What is the USD value being measure against? What about the ole "worth 4 cents after a century of the Federal Reserve" argument?

Again, just my opinion.

I appreciate that opinion. It is nice to balance my mises.org propaganda with mainstream wisdom.

Let me rephrase my question: my stocks are going up, and this is (partially, in our shared opinions) due to a weakened USD. So, my stocks are worth more dollars, and those dollars are worth less stocks.

Given this paradigm, it would seem to me that, even in a worst-case scenario, stocks are a decent hedge against inflation/weak USD because they themselves will increase value accordingly with a weakened USD.

In other words, all the same arguments for gold (as a hedge against the weak USD) could be made for stocks, with the real debate coming down to an abstract argument about the intrinsic value of rocks versus papers that claim partial ownership of a corporation.

Is that thinking flawed? If so, where and why?

[Horatius]

What I want to know of the really religious is if they in fact have a loving God that cares so much- why don't they pray for peace and try to heal the world instead of predicting doom?

People are dying like ants in the mideast and other places yet people can't wait for something really bad to happen in the states? How cruel and vicious and bored of your spoiled life can you be when you want bombs to go off here and innocent people to die? It happens enough times in other countries but that doesn't count for them. Very thankless bunch- let them live in North Korea or Afghanistan and then come again.



Well, that's easy. If you really believe in the God of the Bible, and in particular, all the End Times business from Revelation, then you should want the world to go to hell, as that's proof that the End Times are among us, and that Jesus is about to return. If everything was happiness and light, then there'd be no chance of the current generation of believers being the Elect who will be lifted up to heaven in the rapture.

And that's what they want to believe. Thus, they cheer on disaster.

[aviolet4u]

That's just ironic how Christians are supposed to be peaceful and follow Jesus's example of how to become a better person. Yet 80% of the world is supposed to suffer tragic deaths due to ______. Fill in your doomsday scenario.

People buy into this? You can not put a date on something catastrophic happening when it does it'll come without any warning. So waiting around for it is even more senseless. Those posters talk about survival kits and all that...like are they supposed to be on the run from the NWO in the hills?

Some mentioned how we have it so good with our tv and cheetos. Like 24/7 all Americans do is eat cheetos and watch tv? We don't know how to survive and live off nature. If they really want to live in the wild and practice using their survival kits..let them not work, miss their month's rent and be homeless in the city. That'll show them how to survive harsh conditions if they want it so bad.:)

[aviolet4u]

As you can tell, I refuse to become a member of ATS so I'm venting it all out on here. Please don't mind me.

[LostAngeles]

I should ask, since I just read this in the L.A. Times: Government Report Expected to Mark End to Recession. (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ29-2009oct29,0,5281786.story) What say the Econ-CTers now?

[timhau]

I should ask, since I just read this in the L.A. Times: Government Report Expected to Mark End to Recession. (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ29-2009oct29,0,5281786.story) What say the Econ-CTers now?

That they're lying, the stats are faked, and it's all because of the enormous loans governments take and the extra fiat money that was printed for the stimulus packages. IT'S NOT REAL!!! THE END IS COMING!!!

... or at least that's what the doom-peddlers say in a Finnish-language investing board that I visit regularly. Some of the folks who in March were sure that the whole Western financial system will collapse are also extatic that stock prices have been going down for a few days, so they say they're buying; if you didn't think GE was worth buying at $7 last spring, why the hell is it a good deal now at double the price?

[zaphod2016]

I should ask, since I just read this in the L.A. Times: Government Report Expected to Mark End to Recession. (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ29-2009oct29,0,5281786.story) What say the Econ-CTers now?

From the article:

But positive GDP numbers are unlikely to spur hiring.

I, for one, am not appeased by the prospect of a "jobless recovery". That strikes me as a contradiction.

EDIT- check out the poll (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ29-2009oct29-poll,0,3067738,post.poll) attached to the article. It would seem I am not alone in my concerns.

[timhau]

Positive GDP numbers are unlikely to spur hiring immediately. The peak in unemployment numbers generally trails the bottom of the recession.

[LostAngeles]

From the article:



I, for one, am not appeased by the prospect of a "jobless recovery". That strikes me as a contradiction.

EDIT- check out the poll (http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ29-2009oct29-poll,0,3067738,post.poll) attached to the article. It would seem I am not alone in my concerns.

Ah, there wasn't a poll last night that I saw.

Positive GDP numbers are unlikely to spur hiring immediately. The peak in unemployment numbers generally trails the bottom of the recession.

This is true, as much as I'm kidding that since it's over, I'll magically have a job again.

[timhau]

This is true, as much as I'm kidding that since it's over, I'll magically have a job again.

Not magically, but the better the economy gets (and it apparently got more better than economists had predicted), the better your chances are.

I'm sorry you're out of a job. I feel really lucky -- my current contract is up at the end of the year, and I just got word that it will be renewed for 2010.

[zaphod2016]

I'm sorry you're out of a job. I feel really lucky -- my current contract is up at the end of the year, and I just got word that it will be renewed for 2010.

Congrats, and here's hoping for more good news in the months ahead.

I am also hoping to see some new jobs come online here sooner than later.

Even though I work for myself (freelance web dev) I am still hurting this year. Lots of laid off people = lots of new "freelancers" = bidding war = those of us who've already gone "full time" either slash our rates, or work part time. Either way, the belt tightens a notch.

[zaphod2016]

Jobs will return -- in 2012 (http://money.cnn.com/2009/10/30/news/economy/when_will_jobs_return/index.htm?postversion=2009103013)