Full moon causing people to act weirder

[RexStevens]

Hello all,My name is Rex Stevens,and I'm here to ask for y'all to help, me and my good friend,mr Jose is having a squabble about,(my position is,)full moon causes people to act weirder( he says no.thank you all

[StanBearclaw]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_effect

The lunar effect is a theory which overlaps into sociology, psychology and physiology suggesting that there is correlation between specific stages of the Earth's lunar cycle and deviant behavior in human beings. It is a pseudoscientific theory, however. The claims of a correlation of lunar phases to human behavior do not hold up under scientific scrutiny. Over the past 30 years, even more evidence has emerged to stress that this is pseudoscience.

[CJW]

Hello all,My name is Rex Stevens,and I'm here to ask for y'all to help, me and my good friend,mr Jose is having a squabble about,(my position is,)full moon causes people to act weirder( he says no.thank you all

Rex,

Anectdotes aside, What would your hypothesis be as to why the full moon causes weirdness?

Chris

[arthwollipot]

One of my housemates worked for some time just across the room from the person who took 000 (the Australian equivalent of 911) ambulance calls. She was adamant that there are more calls over the full moon than at other times. Personally, I suggest confirmation bias.

[Burning Beard]

One of my housemates worked for some time just across the room from the person who took 000 (the Australian equivalent of 911) ambulance calls. She was adamant that there are more calls over the full moon than at other times. Personally, I suggest confirmation bias.

My mother-in-law (to be, anyway) works as a social worker at a hospital and she too says there's a noticeable spike in "incidents" during a full moon. I also suggest confirmation bias.

She's "on call" over weekends and sometimes fills in when things get crazy. All it would take is 2 or 3 incidents like that over as many years where she happens to notice a full moon for such an opinion to form.

All it would take from there is the mere suggestion of full-moon-madness and other staff would similarly make the same connection without really thinking about it too much.

[Arthur Denton]

Actually, the full moon makes people act weird.

I've been, before abandoning this horrendous woo belief, involved with some pagans, wiccans, in fact. Most rituals we did were made under full moon. That's probabily due to the fact that the moon is brigher in those days than in others, you can see things better, and it enabled the folks from the middle ages, for example, to actually see where they were going and party, or celebrate, during the night, which was the (supposedly) only time they would have to do so, because in the other moments they would be working for their lords or on their own land.
The rituals that involve being skyclad (naked) were incouraged to happen in this moment because the moon was supposedly pouring down positive energy to recharge us in these days.

Well, to be honest, I prefer taking sunlight directly from the source, nowadays, but the idea is romantic - moonlight, darkness, woman and man naked, dancing around a fire, wishing for cosmic powers to embrace them and bring them a prosper and decent life.

Well, people feel weird when the full moon is around because it's still considered an event. Even though the moon couldn't care less about us, people are still compeled to feel we are bonded to a world of magic, and therefore, if the moon can stand up there, high and shining in its full splendor, why not adding it to the plethora of gods we have? Worshiping the moon is really old, maybe as old as worshiping the sun.

These days, after I've lost my bonds with the coven I would often visit (I was not yet a part of the group and lost quite a few ceremonies of greater importance) all I can think about the full moon is that it is a beautifull sight - and that the combat between the moon and the earth, using gravity as a weapon, shaped our little realm, or at least, helped shaping our realm, therefore it is also guilty for quite a lot of the wonders of the world. Makes me happy. But not weird.

(I advise that my first sentence is merely an opinion, based on observation. I don't mean the moon magically affect people, I mean it affects people sociologically because we dummies prefer to believe in magick than in science. Yes I love the full moon.)

[kerikiwi]

The full moon turns otherwise (seemingly) normal people into trolls, not werewolves as commonly believed

[KeyserSoze]

My mother has worked as a nurse for years and has made similar claims about the ER being more busy on nights when there is a full moon. One possibility to account for this is that people are more active at night when there is a full moon simply because there is more light outside, and after that it's just a game of odds: more night time activity = more accidents at night time.

[StanBearclaw]

My mother has worked as a nurse for years and has made similar claims about the ER being more busy on nights when there is a full moon. One possibility to account for this is that people are more active at night when there is a full moon simply because there is more light outside, and after that it's just a game of odds: more night time activity = more accidents at night time.

That would be a plausible explanation for the phenomenon, but the statistics have shown there isn't actually any increase.



Here are some articles from PubMed: http://tinyurl.com/Pubmed-Full-Moon

[HENTAI DOUKYUSEI JP]

Rex,

Anectdotes aside, What would your hypothesis be as to why the full moon causes weirdness?

ChrisNone.
People just been talking about it and I just told him there is no evidence that supports it.

[RexStevens]

Dear mr CJW,I've came to this from adults when I was young,and experienced it first hand as a young waiter,and years later at present,as a cab driver, but wanted to know if it was coincedence,or if it was fact.

[paximperium]

Dear mr CJW,I've came to this from adults when I was young,and experienced it first hand as a young waiter,and years later at present,as a cab driver, but wanted to know if it was coincedence,or if it was fact.
Several studies looking at criminal and emergency room visits show no difference between full moon and any other regular day. It is likely confirmation bias.
http://www.skepdic.com/fullmoon.html

[RexStevens]

Howdy again, and thank y'all for taking the time to respond,and the next time I turn into a troll,I will know why.

[six7s]

... it enabled the folks from the middle ages, for example, to actually see where they were going and party, or celebrate, during the night, which was the (supposedly) only time they would have to do so, because in the other moments they would be working for their lords or on their own land.Or fishing... or hunting... or cleaning their homes and gardens... or - well, anything, really...

[paximperium]

Or fishing... or hunting... or cleaning their homes and gardens... or - well, anything, really...
Looking out for werewolves. Don't forget that.

[six7s]

Looking out for werewolves. Don't forget that.Naturally (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJqucvWTjf8) :)

[power2012]

I think it's true. Perhaps it doesn't cause criminal behavior, but I bet it makes people more pumped up, hyper, and energetic.

[six7s]

I think it's true. Perhaps it doesn't cause criminal behavior, but I bet it makes people more pumped up, hyper, and energetic.Why? Cos of the minute amounts of (solar) energy in the reflected rays? :confused:

[power2012]

Possibly, or perhaps substances and energies we don't fully understand or even detect right now.

It might be a placebo effect or a psychological thing too, maybe people expect it to do that or want it to have that effect, so it does.

Also it affects how animals behave, like dogs and wolves howl at the moon. Is thinking it could affect humans such a big stretch or leap? There are so many things and so many phenomena that scientists cannot fully explain at all

[six7s]

Also it affects how animals behave, like dogs and wolves howl at the moon. No, it does not

[kerikiwi]

There are so many things and so many phenomena that scientists cannot fully explain at all

Yes indeed, so many that we don't have to make up ridiculous ones...

[AdinDraco]

Before you need to explain possible mechanisms, showing an actual effect would be wise. Objective studies see no effect. Please don't try to defend an effect that simply isn't happening...

[pakeha]

Possibly, or perhaps substances and energies we don't fully understand or even detect right now.

It might be a placebo effect or a psychological thing too, maybe people expect it to do that or want it to have that effect, so it does.

Also it affects how animals behave, like dogs and wolves howl at the moon. Is thinking it could affect humans such a big stretch or leap? There are so many things and so many phenomena that scientists cannot fully explain at all

I'm reposting this link from the second post on this thread:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_effect

Worth reading.

[pakeha]

That would be a plausible explanation for the phenomenon, but the statistics have shown there isn't actually any increase.



Here are some articles from PubMed: http://tinyurl.com/Pubmed-Full-Moon

Thanks for the link, StanUpshaw.
Some fascinating stuff there.

[six7s]

Before you need to explain possible mechanisms, showing an actual effect would be wise. Objective studies see no effect. Please don't try to defend an effect that simply isn't happening...Seconded :)

-----------

If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinise it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it.
If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence.
The origin of myths is explained in this way.
Bertrand Russell (1872 - 1970)

Although the language predates the PC era, the sentiment still applies

[arthwollipot]

I think that in addition to the confirmation bias, there's probably a considerable amount of the self-fulfilling prophecy about it as well - people act crazy because they're expected to act crazy.

After all, we do have the words "lunatic" and "lunacy" in the language, which are derived from the Latin Luna - the moon. The link between the moon and madness goes back a long way.

[Skeptic Ginger]

My mother has worked as a nurse for years and has made similar claims about the ER being more busy on nights when there is a full moon. One possibility to account for this is that people are more active at night when there is a full moon simply because there is more light outside, and after that it's just a game of odds: more night time activity = more accidents at night time.Another possibility is simply noticing the activity when the Moon is full and not noticing THE SAME amount of activity when it isn't. This is what THE EVIDENCE shows to be the case.


People are so gullible. But the evidence is pretty clear in this case.

[Biscuit]

I work as a bouncer for extra cash and I can say for certain that blue moon turns people into A@@holes.

They don't even know its not a microbrew....:rolleyes:

[CJW]

Dear mr CJW,I've came to this from adults when I was young,and experienced it first hand as a young waiter,and years later at present,as a cab driver, but wanted to know if it was coincedence,or if it was fact.

Others in the thread have suggested confirmation bias, as a way to explain why you might think there was a correlation between full moons and weirdness. There are studies cited in this thread that seem to belie that, and lend no support to your hypothesis.

What I was asking you was: if you think that weirdness increases, what do you think is that mechanism that triggers this rise in weirdness? Why is the night of the full moon different than the nights immediately preceding or following?

[Pup]

Out of curiosity, is a belief in the "full moon effect" common in all cultures?

One could make a case that logically, the dark of the moon could just as easily be a time of historical craziness. You could get away with things that might be observed during a full moon, while the darkness would make people more afraid when traveling at night and therefore more apt to misinterpret strangers' behavior, and so forth.

I wonder if the opposite belief (that the dark of the moon causes craziness) is common in any culture, and their confirmation bias has "proven" the opposite to be true?

[paximperium]

What I was asking you was: if you think that weirdness increases, what do you think is that mechanism that triggers this rise in weirdness? Why is the night of the full moon different than the nights immediately preceding or following?
I'll play devil's advocate: The Lunar Rhythm is observed in several nocturnal animal species, mostly in fish. These nocturnal hunters link their activity and fishing activities to the brightness of the moon ie. at the height of night time light at the fullmoon, these deeper fish can see prey closer to the surface and therefore feed more during these period and sink deeper in darker time periods.

Humans could have evolved this rhythm to increase our activity during the best time of the month for night time hunting.

[Olowkow]

This is a pretty well written piece:
http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/story?id=3426758&page=1

Check out the video, interview with Shermer. Recommended.

I particularly liked the part where the lady talked about how the moon's gravity was more when it is full, and that is what affects people.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Actually, the full moon makes people act weird.

I've been, before abandoning this horrendous woo belief, involved with some pagans, wiccans, in fact. Most rituals we did were made under full moon.

<snip>

(I advise that my first sentence is merely an opinion, based on observation. I don't mean the moon magically affect people, I mean it affects people sociologically because we dummies prefer to believe in magick than in science. Yes I love the full moon.)

That's no more accurate than saying the apparent alignment of the planets and constellations affects people or "makes people act weird" since so many people believe in astrology.

Neither the moon nor, in the case of astrology, the planets are what causes this bizarre behavior in humans.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Humans could have evolved this rhythm to increase our activity during the best time of the month for night time hunting.

My first instinct was to respond, "Prove it!" but then I realized you were answering CJW's question. I think CJW's question is inappropriate. Before we worry about trying to explain a phenomenon, it's essential to determine whether there is a phenomenon in need of explanation.

I think there is no evidence, in this case, that there is anything in need of explanation.

I get CJW's point, though. It's similar to this part (http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/astrology.html#force) in Phil Plaitt's excellent essay about astrology.

Note, however, that that part of the essay begins, "For just a moment, let's say that there is some force from the planets that can affect us here on Earth. What could it be?"

[paximperium]

My first instinct was to respond, "Prove it!" but then I realized you were answering CJW's question. I think CJW's question is inappropriate. Before we worry about trying to explain a phenomenon, it's essential to determine whether there is a phenomenon in need of explanation.

I think there is no evidence, in this case, that there is anything in need of explanation.

I get CJW's point, though. It's similar to this part (http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/astrology.html#force) in Phil Plaitt's excellent essay about astrology.

Note, however, that that part of the essay begins, "For just a moment, let's say that there is some force from the planets that can affect us here on Earth. What could it be?"
I agree. It is not necessary to explain mechanism before studying to see if there is an actual effect. Once an effect is determined to exist, then you can look at a mechanism.

However, plausibility of a mechanism is definitely something that should be considered but should not shut ones mind off completely to a possible effect.

[six7s]

Humans could have evolved this rhythm to increase our activity during the best time of the month for night time hunting.True, we could have...

Is there anything to suggest that we have (apart from anecdotal evidence, myths, legends, traditions, rituals, etc)?

[CJW]

My first instinct was to respond, "Prove it!" but then I realized you were answering CJW's question. I think CJW's question is inappropriate. Before we worry about trying to explain a phenomenon, it's essential to determine whether there is a phenomenon in need of explanation.

I think there is no evidence, in this case, that there is anything in need of explanation.

I get CJW's point, though. It's similar to this part (http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/astrology.html#force) in Phil Plaitt's excellent essay about astrology.

Note, however, that that part of the essay begins, "For just a moment, let's say that there is some force from the planets that can affect us here on Earth. What could it be?"

My main purpose in asking the questions is just to get Rex to try to put a little mental muscle behind his contention. For example, if the weirdness is due to the amount of light reflected from the moon, we should see a gradual increase and decrease in the amount of weirdness as the moon waxes and wanes.

[Aepervius]

The only reason I would think the moon had any effect , would be before the advent of light/electricity everywhere. It certainly would be more easy to sneak around without portable light when the moon light your way, rather than bump in everything during a full moon. Nowadays with portable light easily gotten, the loony can riot 24/7.

[Quinn]

This is a pretty well written piece:
http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/story?id=3426758&page=1

Check out the video, interview with Shermer. Recommended.

I particularly liked the part where the lady talked about how the moon's gravity was more when it is full, and that is what affects people.

The very last bit of that video is a perfect object lesson in woo behavior. When the woman is confronted with the fact that research has shown her claims to be utterly false, first she argues that in order to see the effect, "they would need to do a global study." Then, when faced with the fact that global studies have been done and she's still wrong, you can practically see the cognitive dissonance going on in her mind before she eventually stutters out this classic line: "But... guess what? Whether it's really working or not, it's still there."

Has there ever been a more naked admission of "belief regardless of reality"?

[Jeff Corey]

Correlation does not imply causality, but causality necessarily implies correlation. Studies dating back a half a century have found no correlation between any measure of loony behavior and the phase of the moon.
Quod erat demonstratum.

[arthwollipot]

That's no more accurate than saying the apparent alignment of the planets and constellations affects people or "makes people act weird" since so many people believe in astrology.

Neither the moon nor, in the case of astrology, the planets are what causes this bizarre behavior in humans.Well, it is, kinda. Or rather, it can be. People will modify their behaviour consciously or subconsciously to conform to what they believe is predicted. This is what I referred to earlier as the self-fulfilling prophecy. In a way, the moon or the planets are influencing peoples' behaviour, but only because they are changing their own behaviour, and not because of any mystical link or influence.

[Andrew Wiggin]

I know this one isn't real, but I used to work in emergency, and after a few interesting cases that happened to fall on full moons, there was an awful lot of confirmation bias. The fact that I KNEW it wasn't real didn't stop me from feeling a bit of extra dread when scheduled for a night on the full moon. Part of that was that some of the other nurses would move heaven and earth itself to never have to work those shifts, so we'd be a bit short staffed, and a lot of those already there were nervous, didn't want to be there, and were expecting disaster. That's not a recipe for a good night, even if nothing extra special rolls in.

A

[arthwollipot]

I know this one isn't real, but I used to work in emergency, and after a few interesting cases that happened to fall on full moons, there was an awful lot of confirmation bias. The fact that I KNEW it wasn't real didn't stop me from feeling a bit of extra dread when scheduled for a night on the full moon. Part of that was that some of the other nurses would move heaven and earth itself to never have to work those shifts, so we'd be a bit short staffed, and a lot of those already there were nervous, didn't want to be there, and were expecting disaster. That's not a recipe for a good night, even if nothing extra special rolls in.

ASelf-fulfilling prophecy. :D

[Andrew Wiggin]

Self-fulfilling prophecy. :D

Yep.

[skullerello]

I'd vote "confirmation bias". I see customers act stupid or crazy all the time, and I think that a full moon, or some other woo explanation would be convenient, but then I take stock and realize that there's no lunar phenomanon taking place, there's no pattern to their stupidity, it's merely human nature; I work at night, people are disoriented after long driving streatches between breaks, they're bound to appear wierd when they finally show up at my counter.

[StanBearclaw]

Let's also not forget that people aren't exactly matching specific dates with the lunar chart...it's a good bet that there are a lot of "false positive" full moons coming a day or two before and after.

[six7s]

In a way, the moon or the planets are influencing peoples' behaviour, but only because they are changing their own behaviour, and not because of any mystical link or influence.Indeed

The full moon is NOT causing people to act weirder any more than Father Christmas is causing kids to modify their behaviour

[Skeptic Ginger]

I work as a bouncer for extra cash and I can say for certain that blue moon turns people into A@@holes.

They don't even know its not a microbrew....:rolleyes:Well your certainty is confirmation bias. I say that because careful observation confirms there is no full Moon effect. It's a false belief likely formed from selective memory. You notice busy nights and full Moon conjunctions. You don't pay attention to busy nights and no full Moon conjunctions. It's a common anecdotal observation error.

Try keeping an actual written record of busy nights and prove it to yourself.

I did it. The nurses where I worked believed there were more baby deliveries during full Moons. So I mapped out the deliveries over one year. There was no correlation.

[StanBearclaw]

Well your certainty is confirmation bias. I say that because careful observation confirms there is no full Moon effect. It's a false belief likely formed from selective memory. You notice busy nights and full Moon conjunctions. You don't pay attention to busy nights and no full Moon conjunctions. It's a common anecdotal observation error.

Try keeping an actual written record of busy nights and prove it to yourself.

I did it. The nurses where I worked believed there were more baby deliveries during full Moons. So I mapped out the deliveries over one year. There was no correlation.

It was a joke...

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/330114ab87e19e055a.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=17641)

[six7s]

It was a joke...
http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/330114ab87e19e055a.jpg
A joke with a clue, no less

They don't even know its not a microbrew....:rolleyes:


More haste, less speed

:)

[EHocking]

I agree. It is not necessary to explain mechanism before studying to see if there is an actual effect. Once an effect is determined to exist, then you can look at a mechanism.

However, plausibility of a mechanism is definitely something that should be considered but should not shut ones mind off completely to a possible effect.Playing double-Devil's Advocate here, is there any evidence that early humans were nocturnal hunters? I was under the impression that, due to our lack of the claws and teeth that our ancient predators had, we tended to hole up at night and that human sleep patterns have pretty much evolved from there as our social patterns evolved to agriculture and town building. There are a few modern exceptions, such as fishing, but other than that, we basically evolved from diurnal hunters/gatherers (in parallel with the other Great Apes habits)?

[FramerDave]

Let's also not forget that people aren't exactly matching specific dates with the lunar chart...it's a good bet that there are a lot of "false positive" full moons coming a day or two before and after.

Good point. I believe in the article and video there was mention of at least one study that looked at data during and within a few days of the full moon. That can really skew things. If you were to include the two days before and after the date of the full moon, that's five days there. Make it three days and you have a full week of supposed lunacy that could be attributed to the full moon.

[six7s]

Good point. I believe in the article and video there was mention of at least one study that looked at data during and within a few days of the full moon. That can really skew things. If you were to include the two days before and after the date of the full moon, that's five days there. Make it three days and you have a full week of supposed lunacy that could be attributed to the full moon.I smell a conspiracy!!11!!

WHERE IS TEH EVIDENCE FROM RESURCH ON TEH EFFECTZ OF TEH SUN??!!11!!??

[AdinDraco]

Playing double-Devil's Advocate here, is there any evidence that early humans were nocturnal hunters? I was under the impression that, due to our lack of the claws and teeth that our ancient predators had, we tended to hole up at night and that human sleep patterns have pretty much evolved from there as our social patterns evolved to agriculture and town building. There are a few modern exceptions, such as fishing, but other than that, we basically evolved from diurnal hunters/gatherers (in parallel with the other Great Apes habits)?

Yes, there are many possible explanations put foward and this one is just as plausible except objective studies have shown that the full moon effect does not exist. I could come up with a plausible, fits-with-real-science explanation for ESP (for example) and it wouldn't be relevant until the actual phenomenon is shown to exist at all...

[kerikiwi]

When we have established just what causes full-moon-madness we can discuss why unicorns are easier to train than horses.

[AdinDraco]

When we have established just what causes full-moon-madness we can discuss why unicorns are easier to train than horses.

Aaarrrgh....Every time I post on this forum, it goes up next to someone who said the same thing only better. I'm stealing that metaphor for personal use.

[dudalb]

It certainly caused Larry Talbot to act wierd.......:D

[kerikiwi]

Aaarrrgh....Every time I post on this forum, it goes up next to someone who said the same thing only better. I'm stealing that metaphor for personal use.

I'll fight you for it. The choice of weapons is yours, but it must be light sabres.

[six7s]

When we have established just what causes full-moon-madness we can discuss why unicorns are easier to train than horses.Nominated (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=5131710#post5131710) :)

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well, it is, kinda. Or rather, it can be. People will modify their behaviour consciously or subconsciously to conform to what they believe is predicted. This is what I referred to earlier as the self-fulfilling prophecy. In a way, the moon or the planets are influencing peoples' behaviour, but only because they are changing their own behaviour, and not because of any mystical link or influence.You also have here an attempt to explain a behavior which research demonstrates does not occur.

First you have to show people act differently during a full Moon. Then you can speculate as to the mechanism by which it occurs.

The behavior change IS A MYTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Skeptic Ginger]

It was a joke...

http://forums.randi.org/imagehosting/330114ab87e19e055a.jpg (http://forums.randi.org/vbimghost.php?do=displayimg&imgid=17641)Dang. I never read posts carefully enough! :(

[Third Eye Open]

This is the example I most often use to explain to people what confirmation bias is.

[arthwollipot]

You also have here an attempt to explain a behavior which research demonstrates does not occur.

First you have to show people act differently during a full Moon. Then you can speculate as to the mechanism by which it occurs.

The behavior change IS A MYTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!It is a very long-lived and enduring myth - so much so that it has entered even our language. After all, as I pointed out, we have the words "lunatic" and "lunacy". But that's an appeal to antiquity. It would be interesting to examine why the myth is so gosh-darn persistent, don't you think?

The Online Etymology Dictionary (http://www.etymonline.com/) suggests that the first documented use of the term "lunatic" to refer to a crazy person dates back to 1377. The adjectival use goes back to 1290. We also have myths of werewolves who are only active during the full moon that go back centuries.

Why is craziness associated with the moon, and why has the myth persisted for so long? These are fascinating questions that I don't know how to find the answer to.

[six7s]

Why is craziness associated with the moon, and why has the myth persisted for so long? These are fascinating questions that I don't know how to find the answer to.Perhaps Google Scholar could help...

Google Scholar aims to sort articles the way researchers do, weighing the full text of each article, the author, the publication in which the article appears, and how often the piece has been cited in other scholarly literature. The most relevant results will always appear on the first page.


The first result in a search on moon insanity (http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&client=opera&rls=en&hs=nXd&q=moon%20insanity&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=ws) does, indeed, seem relevant :)

http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0165032799000166
Abstract

Belief that the full moon is associated with psychiatric disturbance persists despite 50 years research showing no association. This article traces the historical roots of belief in the power of the moon to cause disorders the mind, especially insanity and epilepsy.

<snip/>

Prior to the advent of modern lighting the moon was a significant source of nocturnal illumination that affected sleep–wake cycle, tending to cause sleep deprivation around the time of full moon. This partial sleep deprivation would have been sufficient to induce mania/hypomania in susceptible bipolar patients and seizures in patients with seizure disorders. The advent of modern lighting attenuated this lunar effect, especially in modern urban areas, where most 20th century studies of lunar effects on the mind have been conducted. The hypothesis presented in this article is open to empirical validation or falsification. Potential tests for the sleep-deprivation hypothesis of lunar action are discussed.

[Modified]

There must be some difference in the number or nature of ER visits, even if difficult to measure. I mean, on the night before trash day I walk around the side of the house to get the trash cans, barefooted and with no direct light. If there is a rock to stumble over or a poisonous snake waiting for me, I surely have a better chance to avoid it during the full moon. I suppose the number of ER visits might be the same, if the lesser danger on moonlit nights is balanced by the greater number of people who are out doing things, but I would expect some difference in the nature of the injuries.

[kerikiwi]

There must be some difference in the number or nature of ER visits, even if difficult to measure.

Um, no. There 'must' not.

[LTC8K6]

I act strange on purpose when there's a full moon...

[Skeptic Ginger]

It is a very long-lived and enduring myth - so much so that it has entered even our language. After all, as I pointed out, we have the words "lunatic" and "lunacy". But that's an appeal to antiquity. It would be interesting to examine why the myth is so gosh-darn persistent, don't you think?

The Online Etymology Dictionary (http://www.etymonline.com/) suggests that the first documented use of the term "lunatic" to refer to a crazy person dates back to 1377. The adjectival use goes back to 1290. We also have myths of werewolves who are only active during the full moon that go back centuries.

Why is craziness associated with the moon, and why has the myth persisted for so long? These are fascinating questions that I don't know how to find the answer to.Selective memory is an evidence supported phenomena. That is the best hypothesis to explain the myth. When the Moon is full and something happens, people notice. When stuff happens and the Moon is not full, people are not taking special note of those events.

When you actually track events with careful observation, turns out they don't correlate with full Moons after all.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Perhaps Google Scholar could help...


...

http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0165032799000166So they document the activity does not occur then go on to offer an hypothesis why it does. :rolleyes:

[Skeptic Ginger]

There must be some difference in the number or nature of ER visits, even if difficult to measure. I mean, on the night before trash day I walk around the side of the house to get the trash cans, barefooted and with no direct light. If there is a rock to stumble over or a poisonous snake waiting for me, I surely have a better chance to avoid it during the full moon. I suppose the number of ER visits might be the same, if the lesser danger on moonlit nights is balanced by the greater number of people who are out doing things, but I would expect some difference in the nature of the injuries.So many people love the hypothesis that more nocturnal light is the cause. THE BEHAVIOR DOES NOT OCCUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[arthwollipot]

When you actually track events with careful observation, turns out they don't correlate with full Moons after all.But why the full moon as a correlative event? Surely there are other great events that could be correlated - why such a strong draw towards the full moon? For example, why is there no strong correlation of bad luck with the female menstrual cycle? Why the moon?

So many people love the hypothesis that more nocturnal light is the cause. THE BEHAVIOR DOES NOT OCCUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Yes, but the belief that the behaviour occurs occurs, which is what we are (or should be) discussing.

[MG1962]

Its strange, but in my career of customer service roles, it is suprisingly common for people to ask, are we close to full moon. Why how or whatever I dont know.....but there does seem to be a pattern between an upswing in crazy calls and the cycle of the Moon

[arthwollipot]

The first result in a search on moon insanity (http://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&client=opera&rls=en&hs=nXd&q=moon%20insanity&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=ws) does, indeed, seem relevant :)I think it's possible that before modern night lighting, the fact that the full moon produced so much illumination meant that people were out and about more during the full moon than when there was less light. The people who were would be out at night were more likely to be criminals or the insane. Plausible, I suppose, but I still have my doubts. Of course, I can't read the full article without registration.

[six7s]

So they document the activity does not occur then go on to offer an hypothesis why it does. :rolleyes:Is that blue moon tasty?

[six7s]

Of course, I can't read the full article without registration.Alas, TANSTAAFL ;)

[AdinDraco]

Its strange, but in my career of customer service roles, it is suprisingly common for people to ask, are we close to full moon. Why how or whatever I dont know.....but there does seem to be a pattern between an upswing in crazy calls and the cycle of the Moon

That's the wonderful thing about Confirmation Bias. People ask if it's near a full moon and, on the many instances where it's not, no link is established and it's forgotten. When a wife says that the husband always leaves the toilet seat up and the husband says that he always puts the seat down, they are both telling the truth.

[kerikiwi]

why is there no strong correlation of bad luck with the female menstrual cycle?


Er, because it is very bad luck to not menstruate on cue?

[arthwollipot]

Er, because it is very bad luck to not menstruate on cue?Hmm. You might be onto something there.

[kerikiwi]

Hmm. You might be onto something there.

Oh believe me I am!

[EHocking]

Yes, there are many possible explanations put foward and this one is just as plausible except objective studies have shown that the full moon effect does not exist. I could come up with a plausible, fits-with-real-science explanation for ESP (for example) and it wouldn't be relevant until the actual phenomenon is shown to exist at all...We are in agreement here. It's pointless to put forward a hypothesis for a mechanism for a phenomenon that has not been shown to exist, except (maybe) for purely hypothetical purposes, I was merely questioning the plausibility of the mechanism proposed by paximperium (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=5128097&postcount=35).

[Kahalachan]

I would call it self fulfilling prophesy, where people think the full moon means something and act accordingly consciously or subconsciously.

I wouldn't say the full moon beams light down directly into our neurons to affect behavior.

[Cuddles]

But why the full moon as a correlative event? Surely there are other great events that could be correlated - why such a strong draw towards the full moon? For example, why is there no strong correlation of bad luck with the female menstrual cycle? Why the moon?

Yes, but the belief that the behaviour occurs occurs, which is what we are (or should be) discussing.

I disagree that there is anything particularly interesting about it. There is no shortage of other widely believed paranormal claims around, as well as plenty of historic ones. Given that the Moon is obvious objects around, if anything we should be surprised that there are so few myths surrounding it. Think about it, we have werewolves, lunacy and a couple of gods, mixed up in an endless list of fairies, demons, gods, vampires, aliens, witches, bigfoots, dragons, magic, alchemy, astrology, faith healing, energy, quantum and so on.

People believe, and have believed, in so many things that aren't actually true. Why should it be interesting that a couple of those beliefs have involved one of the most obvious objects in the sky?

[Modified]

So many people love the hypothesis that more nocturnal light is the cause. THE BEHAVIOR DOES NOT OCCUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I didn't say anything about behavior or insanity, I was just talking about ER visits. Since I don't do anything different based on moon phases and I do walk around outside in the dark regularly, my chance of being injured and visiting an ER on moonless nights is certainly higher than on moonlit nights, even if by a tiny fraction.

[Modified]

Um, no. There 'must' not.

For the usual meaning of "must", yes there must. I would be very surprised if the number of ER visits for fishhook removal at midnight were not significantly higher on full moon nights than new moon nights, since more people night fish around the time of the full moon.

[Cainkane1]

Hello all,My name is Rex Stevens,and I'm here to ask for y'all to help, me and my good friend,mr Jose is having a squabble about,(my position is,)full moon causes people to act weirder( he says no.thank you all
Why would a full moon cause a person to behave differently? Statistics don't bear that superstitition out at all. I worked in a mental hospital as an ambulance driver for three years and the moon never caused anyone to act either good or bad.

[EHocking]

For the usual meaning of "must", yes there must. I would be very surprised if the number of ER visits for fishhook removal at midnight were not significantly higher on full moon nights than new moon nights, since more people night fish around the time of the full moon.Be surprised then.

Studies to date do not show any correlation between a full moon and ER admissions, regardless of cause for admission.

[Skeptic Ginger]

But why the full moon as a correlative event? Surely there are other great events that could be correlated - why such a strong draw towards the full moon? For example, why is there no strong correlation of bad luck with the female menstrual cycle? ....You're kidding, right (http://www.womenpriests.org/traditio/unclean.asp)?

Yes, but the belief that the behaviour occurs occurs, which is what we are (or should be) discussing.Then why are you trying to explain the behavior? I've been talking about the belief.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Its strange, but in my career of customer service roles, it is suprisingly common for people to ask, are we close to full moon. Why how or whatever I dont know.....but there does seem to be a pattern between an upswing in crazy calls and the cycle of the Moon
Try actually recording (or reviewing past records) of activity and see if your observation is correct. You will find it isn't if your observations match the volumes of data so far collected.

[Skeptic Ginger]

For the usual meaning of "must", yes there must. I would be very surprised if the number of ER visits for fishhook removal at midnight were not significantly higher on full moon nights than new moon nights, since more people night fish around the time of the full moon.The problem is, not enough cases of this particular accident (if what you say is true about all night fishing combined and I suspect it isn't) occur to affect the stats of ED activity.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I didn't say anything about behavior or insanity, I was just talking about ER visits. Since I don't do anything different based on moon phases and I do walk around outside in the dark regularly, my chance of being injured and visiting an ER on moonless nights is certainly higher than on moonlit nights, even if by a tiny fraction.
You keep insisting on belief in a myth. Try finding research which confirms ED activity correlates to the lunar phases, then get back to us with your hypothesis.

[Jeff Corey]

I would call it self fulfilling prophesy, where people think the full moon means something and act accordingly consciously or subconsciously.

I wouldn't say the full moon beams light down directly into our neurons to affect behavior.
Anecdote warning!!
A friend was a bartender who professed a belief in this. When customers would get a bit rowdy, he'd say it must be a full moon and get all the "mooners" to howl. Sometimes, this was accompanied by the song "Werewolves of London" on the juke. One night while this was going on, I showed him the newspapers section which showed it was a new moon.
So, Shamus, explain that, I say.
Well it's almost as bad, isn't it? And a week before and after, too.

[Modified]

The problem is, not enough cases of this particular accident (if what you say is true about all night fishing combined and I suspect it isn't) occur to affect the stats of ED activity.

If someone claims there is absolutely no difference, then they aren't using enough data or enough categories.

Even if the same number of people fished at night on all days (which in my experience, is unlikely to be true), the fish bite better on moonlit nights, so those fishing will have greater activity and more chances for certain types of injuries per hour, as well as an incentive to stay out longer. You would need less people fishing at those times to counteract that and even things out.

[Modified]

You keep insisting on belief in a myth. Try finding research which confirms ED activity correlates to the lunar phases, then get back to us with your hypothesis.

So you are claiming that the chance of injury is the same regardless of light level? I would say the difference may be small and difficult to measure.

[EHocking]

If someone claims there is absolutely no difference, then they aren't using enough data or enough categories.I think the point was that these sorts of injuries are such a tiny % of the total as to probably have little influence.

The claim is that the TOTAL is unaffected by the phase of the moon, therefore whether it is 1% fishing injuries of the total or 99% - there is no lunar effect.Even if the same number of people fished at night on all days (which in my experience, is unlikely to be true), the fish bite better on moonlit nights,This is certainly a common (and commonly exploited) fishing myth.

The following are evidence against the commonly held belief.
I can find no supporting evidence outside of anecdotes, or advertising for lunar calendars.

Some scientific studies on fisheries.
Lunar phase and catch success of the striped marlin (Tetrapturus audax) in sport fishing at Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, Mexico (http://www.scielo.sa.cr/scielo.php?pid=S0034-77442003000200026&script=sci_arttext)

The relative importance of lunar phase and environmental conditions on striped marlin (Tetrapturus audax) catches in sport fishing (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6T6N-4SC78M3-1&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1022863217&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=4fb97319c1af74d27f6d6fbdbf3fe237)

Lunar landings—Relationship between lunar phase and catch rates for an Australian gamefish-tournament fishery (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6T6N-4P9SN94-1&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1022865272&_rerunOrigin=google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=9afb8ef588c5e7a6a5db66feba286e54)

Nocturnal and lunar input patterns of pre-settlement coral reef fish in Wallis lagoon (Central South Pacific): Implications for sampling strategies (http://www.alr-journal.org/index.php?option=article&access=doi&doi=10.1051/alr:2007028)

While the following might be put down as anecdotal, at least this angler has analysed his personal records.

THE REAL SCOOP ON MOON PHASES (http://www.anglerguide.com/articles/522.html)
Upshot is (and most anglers know this anyway) that an hour before/after dusk or dawn are prime times for anglers. He does find some correlation on lunar phases.. so those fishing will have greater activity and more chances for certain types of injuries per hour, as well as an incentive to stay out longer. You would need less people fishing at those times to counteract that and even things out.Nothwithstanding the veracity of the myth, your conjecture that there are more anglers out fishing during a full moon may be correct.

[arthwollipot]

You're kidding, right (http://www.womenpriests.org/traditio/unclean.asp)?No, I was not kidding. I had just picked a particularly bad example. :boxedin:

I was searching for something that varied on a similar cycle to the moon, and landed on that one without fully thinking it through.

Then why are you trying to explain the behavior? I've been talking about the belief.I'm not. I was trying to examine what factors might influence someone's behaviour, as part of examining why the belief exists. Granted, it's easy to slosh out from one container into the other, and perhaps I was doing that a little. Regardless, your attitude has not been helping.

[six7s]

I was searching for something that varied on a similar cycle to the moonYou're a Saggitarian, right?













:p

[arthwollipot]

You're a Saggitarian, right?No, I'm a Sagittarian.

[Derwoods]

If you want to say that there are more likely to be people wandering around at night during a full moon, then what about the people who trip over stuff due to there not being any moonlight? Or have wrecks.. or run over people/animals because it is so dark? You can't just look at the special cases of a full moon without looking at what happens the rest of the time.

[CJW]

Or that half the world's population lives in urban settings where artificial lighting probably nullifies any incremental light coming from the moon.

[Skeptic Ginger]

If someone claims there is absolutely no difference, then they aren't using enough data or enough categories.

Even if the same number of people fished at night on all days (which in my experience, is unlikely to be true), the fish bite better on moonlit nights, so those fishing will have greater activity and more chances for certain types of injuries per hour, as well as an incentive to stay out longer. You would need less people fishing at those times to counteract that and even things out.When there is an actual reason for Moonlight to affect an activity, such as night fishing, then you can say there are more people doing that activity, there will be more injuries. The same is true for drunk drivers on weekends at 2 am when the bars close.

But the night fishing example won't affect ED patient numbers because they reflect a mix of many different injuries and illnesses. EDs have variable caseloads and they also vary by type of problem. For example, the 2am drunk driver injury I mentioned is a pattern. People have more heart attacks, I think on Monday morning. (I can't remember which day, I think it's Monday.)

But the injury you are talking about would be very unlikely to effect ED stats because so few people with that injury would be in the totals. It's like saying there's more erosion on a building when a breeze is blowing.

There would be one exception, maybe a combined total injuries associated with night fishing in a small fishing village. In that case the ED caseload would have a higher percentage of fishing associated injuries. You could see an effect of the full Moon in that rare circumstance.

[Dr. Tobias Fünke]

My mother has worked as a nurse for years and has made similar claims about the ER being more busy on nights when there is a full moon. One possibility to account for this is that people are more active at night when there is a full moon simply because there is more light outside, and after that it's just a game of odds: more night time activity = more accidents at night time.

I've been working as a nurse for (not including conscription and apprenticeship) 13 years now and ..... no. Never had reason to believe in it.

[shandyjan]

snipped from Arth..
"I was trying to examine what factors might influence someone's behaviour, as part of examining why the belief exists."
Reminds me of the same kind of thing for Friday the 13th.

[King of the Americas]

I'll play devil's advocate: The Lunar Rhythm is observed in several nocturnal animal species, mostly in fish. These nocturnal hunters link their activity and fishing activities to the brightness of the moon ie. at the height of night time light at the fullmoon, these deeper fish can see prey closer to the surface and therefore feed more during these period and sink deeper in darker time periods.

Humans could have evolved this rhythm to increase our activity during the best time of the month for night time hunting.

THANK YOU, for posting my thought.

*Poor night hunters do 'better' during a full(er) moon...and are thus more active.

WE have poor night vision, and ARE more likely to venture out during a full moon.

[Skeptic Ginger]

No, I was not kidding. I had just picked a particularly bad example. :boxedin:

I was searching for something that varied on a similar cycle to the moon, and landed on that one without fully thinking it through.

I'm not. I was trying to examine what factors might influence someone's behaviour, as part of examining why the belief exists. Granted, it's easy to slosh out from one container into the other, and perhaps I was doing that a little. Regardless, your attitude has not been helping.I think if the behavior actually changed with the full Moon, you'd see the effect. The fact you don't see an effect suggests the behavior does not actually exist.

The night fishing timed because certain species come to the surface on full Moons would be an example you are looking for. But you seem to be looking for a behavior associated with humans going out at night because there is a full Moon for light. I can only think of a couple times that would actually affect one's activity decision. The night fishing is one. I've also gone cross county skiing at night specifically because the full Moon lights up a snowy landscape well enough to see at night.

But the Moon doesn't light up the forest that well for hiking at night if there is no snow. So I can't see people scheduling Moonlit hikes in any significant numbers. And certainly city people don't typically plan special outings because the full Moon is out. Maybe full Moon desert hikes are common?

[six7s]

The fact you don't see an effect suggests the behavior does not actually exist.Perhaps

It can also suggest that your obsevation skills are lacking

[Skeptic Ginger]

Perhaps

It can also suggest that your obsevation skills are lackingMy Skills????

I'm telling you what the research reveals. What are you talking about? You just don't believe it because your personal anecdotes don't confirm the actual research?

[arthwollipot]

But the Moon doesn't light up the forest that well for hiking at night if there is no snow. So I can't see people scheduling Moonlit hikes in any significant numbers. And certainly city people don't typically plan special outings because the full Moon is out. Maybe full Moon desert hikes are common?Well, there's more than just forest.

When I moved out to the country, I was startled to see the difference in visibility between full-moon and new-moon nights. You can see a LOT more during the full moon.

Exactly what that says for the subject at hand, I'm not too sure.

[six7s]

The fact you don't see an effect suggests the behavior does not actually exist.
Perhaps

It can also suggest that your obsevation skills are lackingMy Skills????

I'm telling you what the research reveals. What are you talking about?Are you talking to me?

You just don't believe it because your personal anecdotes don't confirm the actual research?The text-only medium that is online forum discussion can (and does) cause confusion

If all else fails, try reading what I have written :)

[Skeptic Ginger]

Are you talking to me?

The text-only medium that is online forum discussion can (and does) cause confusion

If all else fails, try reading what I have written :)I did. I said I was talking about the research not my personal observations, and you chimed in that it could be my observation skills were lacking.


What do you claim you wrote?

[six7s]

...you chimed in that it could be my observation skills were lacking.No

I did not

I, like you (unless I'm mistaken) used the generic term 'you' - as per your reply to arthwollipot: The fact you don't see an effect suggests the behavior does not actually exist.

[Skeptic Ginger]

No

I did not

I, like you (unless I'm mistaken) used the generic term 'you' - as per your reply to arthwollipot: Well I did mean Arthwollipot by "you" in my post as he seemed to be convinced of an observation he made. However, I do use the generic "you" quite often. Sorry I misread your post. :)

[six7s]

Sorry I misread your post. :) :)







Getting back to my earlier post:

The fact that we don't see an effect can also suggest that your our observation skills are lacking

This was made:

with respect to the number of accidents that occur at times with varying levels of moon-reflected light


to acknowledge that (even peer-reviewed) research can't be taken as 'gospel' (if it was 'gospel', then there wouldn't be any need for 'further' research in the exact-same field)

[Questioninggeller]

Hello all,My name is Rex Stevens,and I'm here to ask for y'all to help, me and my good friend,mr Jose is having a squabble about,(my position is,)full moon causes people to act weirder( he says no.thank you all

Here's Michael Shermer talking about it:
AIYNnfKZn3Q

[Mason]

Back when I worked in retail, on nights when oddness was occurring, employees and customer alike would often comment "It must be a full moon tonight", to which others would respond "yeah, that must be it". A few things would happen from this point on...

People would begin swapping stories about weirdness that they remember happening on a full moon, people would start quoting anecdotal "facts" about full moon oddness (ER traffic, lunatic arrests, etc), and people would begin looking for other odd things occurring this very evening.

Once the full moon had been evoked, word would spread. Anything odd would then be attributed to the full moon. "Oh, yeah, it's cause it's a full moon tonight" and the whole confirmation bias would begin.

Of course, we all know this routine, but the one thing I've frequently noticed is that nobody goes out to check if the moon is even full. Everybody remembers the weird night, they remember that it was all because of the full moon, but the damned thing isn't even full! I saw this occasionally happen at a strip mall I worked at, so my attention was drawn to it. Then when I worked at an indoor mall, I saw it with alarming frequency and on a few occasions would drag coworkers outside during a break just to say "Look at that! It isn't full!".

But to no avail. The confirmation bias had already set in, and showing the non-full moon would not undo the conviction that yet another night of full moon weirdness had gone by.

[Foolmewunz]

For the bartenders and waitresses out there, I submit, purely anecdotally, that it goes beyond confirmation bias - it's self-fulfilling prophesy. When I used to hang out in counter-culture clubs there were sufficient wooish individuals that most people were made aware that the full moon was upon us or about to be upon us in the next day or so.

They'd actually gear up for it and play off of each other.

And just to continue on the anecdotal theme - how would those of you who know people who believe that there is some form of correlation between the full moon and weirdness account for the 1.4 billion Chinese who would be astounded about such findings, as they have no such cultural belief? And this is a culture which still goes by the lunar calendar.



ETA: apologies if there is some serious sciencey discussion going on - I'm just dropping in, backtracking from the hilarious "unicorns/horses" line.

[skullerello]

There was no full moon tonight, and customers were still acting "wierd and stupid".
So, be very carefull what retail places you haunt, or we service industry folk'll be talkin' 'bout you. And all the other Sprites of the field will hoo-doo you!

[Skeptic Ginger]

:)







Getting back to my earlier post:

The fact that we don't see an effect can also suggest that your our observation skills are lacking

This was made:

with respect to the number of accidents that occur at times with varying levels of moon-reflected light


to acknowledge that (even peer-reviewed) research can't be taken as 'gospel' (if it was 'gospel', then there wouldn't be any need for 'further' research in the exact-same field)
But in the case of the hypothesized lunar effect, multiple studies provide overwhelming evidence the effect is a myth.

A single peer reviewed study with a small sample size isn't much evidence. Lots of different studies by different researchers looking at a question from multiple angles and all coming to the same conclusion can be seen as close to gospel for all practical purposes.

[six7s]

But in the case of the hypothesized lunar effect, multiple studies provide overwhelming evidence the effect is a myth.Please note that I am NOT - in any way - suggesting that there is any substance to the 'lunacy' myths and legends

Instead, I am questioning the 'zero-correlation' claim re the incidence of noctunal accidents...

Simple fact (1): more people are active (e.g. fishing, skiing, hiking, etc) when they can see their surroundings

Simple fact (2): more accidents occur when people are active (cf asleep)

Simple conclusion: there will be more accidents on full-moon nights

If research consistently fails to support this conclusion, I'd at least consider examining the methodologies of various research projects and identifying any consistent sources of possible error

[LissaLysikan]

Consider that an increase in accidents due to more people active may be offset by more accidents per person during darker nights?

[kerikiwi]

Please note that I am NOT - in any way - suggesting that there is any substance to the 'lunacy' myths and legends

Instead, I am questioning the 'zero-correlation' claim re the incidence of noctunal accidents...

Simple fact (1): more people are active (e.g. fishing, skiing, hiking, etc) when they can see their surroundings

Simple fact (2): more accidents occur when people are active (cf asleep)

Simple conclusion: there will be more accidents on full-moon nights

If research consistently fails to support this conclusion, I'd at least consider examining the methodologies of various research projects and identifying any consistent sources of possible error

Granted Simple Facts 1 and 2 are correct. The Simple Conclusion is better decribed as simplistic. To reach that conclusion you would first need Simple Fact 3: more people are active on full-moon nights, which is questionable.

If research fails consistently to support your etablished conclusion wouldn't you at least consider that your established conclusion is wrong?
After all, it is a little arse-backwards to reach a conclusion first.
Methodologies and consistent sources of error should be examined regardless of the conclusions.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Simple fact (1): more people are active (e.g. fishing, skiing, hiking, etc) when they can see their surroundings

Simple fact (2): more accidents occur when people are active (cf asleep)

Simple conclusion: there will be more accidents on full-moon nights
This is a non-sequitur. You have to assume that moonlight is the only source of light for activity. It most certainly is not.

In fact, in most urban and even suburban environments, I doubt it's a significant light source for any activity other than moon watching.

ETA: Also, as mentioned, there is no phenomenon in need of an explanation.

[Jeff Corey]

: Also, as mentioned, there is no phenomenon in need of an explanation.
Also, simple fact. People injure themselves if they can't see what they are doing.
Again, no simple facts are needed until there are any data.
"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data..."

[Skeptic Ginger]

Please note that I am NOT - in any way - suggesting that there is any substance to the 'lunacy' myths and legends

Instead, I am questioning the 'zero-correlation' claim re the incidence of noctunal accidents...

Simple fact (1): more people are active (e.g. fishing, skiing, hiking, etc) when they can see their surroundings

Simple fact (2): more accidents occur when people are active (cf asleep)

Simple conclusion: there will be more accidents on full-moon nights

If research consistently fails to support this conclusion, I'd at least consider examining the methodologies of various research projects and identifying any consistent sources of possible errorYou are citing an hypothesis, not a conclusion. You provide the rationale for your hypothesis. Provide some evidence your hypothesis is correct.

Studies of ED admissions have failed to confirm your hypothesis. I agree you have supported it as far as hypotheses go. But I disagree that just because something makes sense an actual eval of the data will always confirm it.

While looking for study error is of value, there are too many separate studies to support the hypothesis the studies are flawed. You need some data to support your hypothesis at this point.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Also, simple fact. People injure themselves if they can't see what they are doing.
Again, no simple facts are needed until there are any data.
"It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data..."Or rather, it is a mistake to conclude one's hypothesis is correct before one has collected the data confirming it. I agree wholeheartedly.

[Cuddles]

Also, simple fact. People injure themselves if they can't see what they are doing.

Also simple fact - people are less likely to injure themselves if they can't see what they're doing because they'll be more careful. We can all play the "simple fact" game as much as we like, but the simple fact is that none of these claims are actually simple facts.

Logic can only get you so far in the real world. At some point you have to stop just thinking and spend some time actually looking. As it stands, the only evidence we have says that there are not more accidents during a full Moon. It doesn't matter how sensible it sounds that there should be, there is no evidence to suggest that there actually are.

[Foolmewunz]

As I said above, in a throwaway but significant factoid - If the Chinese cultures, with their history and their massive population base (and their lunar calendar) do not hold to the belief that people get crazy during a full moon, then if you really care about the reasons behind the myth, you have to check into the history of the west. It's obviously a rather western phenomenon.

Surely if there were more accidents or more rages or disputes in a full moon, someone over here would've noticed it in the past 4500 years. The statistics don't bear the contention (that there is a full moon effect) out, and popular (as in largest base population on earth) beliefs don't really bear it out - except in certain parts of the west.

[six7s]

You are citing an hypothesis, not a conclusion.True... mea culpa, and thanks for the reminder

You provide the rationale for your hypothesis. Provide some evidence your hypothesis is correct.I only have personal/anecdotal evidence; that - on moonlit nights - people are more active (e.g fishing) and (using my hypothesis to vault to a conclusion ;)) are more prone to having accidents

[kerikiwi]

(using my hypothesis to vault to a conclusion ;))
Be sure to restrict yourself to full-moon nights for said vaulting..

[King of the Americas]

As I said above, in a throwaway but significant factoid - If the Chinese cultures, with their history and their massive population base (and their lunar calendar) do not hold to the belief that people get crazy during a full moon, then if you really care about the reasons behind the myth, you have to check into the history of the west. It's obviously a rather western phenomenon.

Surely if there were more accidents or more rages or disputes in a full moon, someone over here would've noticed it in the past 4500 years. The statistics don't bear the contention (that there is a full moon effect) out, and popular (as in largest base population on earth) beliefs don't really bear it out - except in certain parts of the west.

What page is the link to the statics on?

---

Here's my thought, "belief" works about half the time... The "Placebo Effect", I think it's called. Believing causes things to occur sometimes.

Combine people's beliefs and the physical illumination the full Moon causes, and I'd be surprised to see no escalation in emergency services numbers.

Granted, we are now an 'indoor people', so is there anyway we can determine if this was ever a real phenomena?

[EHocking]

What page is the link to the statics on?

---

Here's my thought, "belief" works about half the time... The "Placebo Effect", I think it's called. Believing causes things to occur sometimes.

Combine people's beliefs and the physical illumination the full Moon causes, and I'd be surprised to see no escalation in emergency services numbers.This was addressed in Post 2 (http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=5125635&postcount=2) of this thread. Read the wiki link.

Be Surprised - there is no correllation.

Granted, we are now an 'indoor people', so is there anyway we can determine if this was ever a real phenomena?Probably not.
As hinted above, by Foolmewunz (and others upthread) there does not seem to be any history of it beyond modern anecdotes.

[Skeptic Ginger]

What page is the link to the statics on?

---

Here's my thought, "belief" works about half the time... The "Placebo Effect", I think it's called. Believing causes things to occur sometimes.
...And belief also leads to confirmation bias on a regular basis. You notice activity on a full Moon and you fail to note the same activity on non full Moon nights.

[Skeptic Ginger]

True... mea culpa, and thanks for the reminder

I only have personal/anecdotal evidence; that - on moonlit nights - people are more active (e.g fishing) and (using my hypothesis to vault to a conclusion ;)) are more prone to having accidentsI suggest you make some attempt to confirm your observation or consider selective memory, or even that there is a world of night fishing on dark nights you were simply unaware of.

How often does full Moon night fishing occur, for example? Squid, and grunions, for example, are fished for then because they have a cycle that brings them out on full Moons. But a quick Google for night fishing (http://www.google.com/search?q=night+fishing&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a) reveals all kinds of night fishing is done with lights to attract the fish.

[Foolmewunz]

What page is the link to the statics on?

---

<snip>

I think it's apparent that it was anecdotal.... Having lived here for a decade, I'd never heard anyone say anything related to the full moon = added craziness belief. Ergo, the day I saw this thread, and I realized that factor, I asked just about every Chinese person I know for a couple of days what they thought of the effects of the full moon, and the only ones who agreed with the idea of people going a little whacky on the full moon were ones raised in the west.

The only significance the full moon has to the Chinese is that some older folks think that it's a traditional time to be with family you haven't seen for a while (or something a la long lost relatives - I got conflicting accounts). This is particularly important at Chinese New Year. The Chinese calendar is lunar. Full moons bring on many holidays, and where there are holidays in China, there are fireworks and thus accidents. Yet no one seems to attribute this to the energy or gravitational pull of the moon.

Contrast my informal survey to this thread, and you'll see the difference. Even on a board of skeptics, there are people who feel that for whatever reason there is some correlation between accidents or craziness and full moons. Yet, out of maybe thirty-five to fifty people in Hong Kong, no non-western-raised Chinese holds those beliefs or even had heard of the phenomenon.

A quick web search doesn't yield anything other than the Chinese superstition that you are to bang gongs and set of fireworks during a lunar eclipse. The belief is that the moon is being devoured by a dragon, and the loud noise will scare him away. And it works! Just look at all the times the moon hasn't been eaten!:spjimlad:

[sophia8]

Let's also not forget that people aren't exactly matching specific dates with the lunar chart...it's a good bet that there are a lot of "false positive" full moons coming a day or two before and after.A couple or three years ago, some police chief here in the UK claimed that the Full Moon did cause increased violence and criminality, citing his area's crime figures for the previous year. Turned out that the Full Moons for that year nearly all fell on or close to a weekend, when figures for drunkeness and violence for any area always show a spike, regardless of the Lunar cycle.

[arthwollipot]

Surely if there were more accidents or more rages or disputes in a full moon, someone over here would've noticed it in the past 4500 years. The statistics don't bear the contention (that there is a full moon effect) out, and popular (as in largest base population on earth) beliefs don't really bear it out - except in certain parts of the west.Well, although the data does not bear the contention, the anecdotes (in the West, anyway) do. So there has to be some reason for the myth existing (in the West).

[Jeff Corey]

Off hand, I can think of a few. Pervasive legends and "It makes sense, don't it? It affects the tides, don't it?" Confirmation bias, cherry picking and people being unaware of what phase of the moon is when stuff happens.
And this.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uV9xIzzcHg

[JoeTheJuggler]

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned something that I witnessed just a couple of days ago. Someone experienced a weird day (witnessed several auto accidents and a lot of craziness at their work--a hospital, but not in the ED), and someone else said, "It must be a full moon." It wasn't, but you can bet they'll count these events as support to the notion that the full moon causes people to act weirder.

Anyone know if there's a name for this? It's confirmation bias plus something else--a dearth of fact-checking or assuming things fit your bias even when they don't. (It's not quite shoehorning. . . )

[Jeff Corey]

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned something that I witnessed just a couple of days ago. Someone experienced a weird day (witnessed several auto accidents and a lot of craziness at their work--a hospital, but not in the ED), and someone else said, "It must be a full moon." It wasn't, but you can bet they'll count these events as support to the notion that the full moon causes people to act weirder.

Anyone know if there's a name for this? It's confirmation bias plus something else--a dearth of fact-checking or assuming things fit your bias even when they don't. (It's not quite shoehorning. . . )

It is like confirmation bias as demonstrated in the Wason card selection task. People generally only pick the cards that can confirm, but not falsify, the hypothesis in question. So these people don't even turn over the card that says "New Moon" or "Not a Full moon" to attempt to falsify it..

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well, although the data does not bear the contention, the anecdotes (in the West, anyway) do. So there has to be some reason for the myth existing (in the West).Goodness Arthwollipot. You really need to think about this unskeptical position you are taking here.

People believe they are viewing a phenomena. But when we actually analyze the data it turns out there is selective memory going on and no such phenomena exist.

For some bizarre reason you are rejecting the systematically collected observations in favor of the unsystematic anecdotal conclusions.

Yes, people believe. But actual effect is not the reason. Time to look for other explanations for the belief. Selective memory is the best explanation. I'm open to other hypotheses. But an actual effect has been ruled out by systematic observations.

[Skeptic Ginger]

...

Anyone know if there's a name for this? It's confirmation bias plus something else--a dearth of fact-checking or assuming things fit your bias even when they don't. (It's not quite shoehorning. . . )Selective memory. When there is certain activity and the Moon is full, you notice. When the same activity occurs and the Moon is not full, you forget.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I worked in a small hospital for about a year. We had about 300 births a year. When the OB patients were delivering in bunches and the Moon was full, people often commented, it's a full Moon.

So I mapped out a year's worth of births at the hospital. Low and behold there was no correlation to the lunar phases.

[Jeff Corey]

He (Arthwolinpot) didn't say there was an actual effect. He said there was a pervasive belief, and I offered some reasons, based on experimental evidence, for such a belief.

[Skeptic Ginger]

It would seem we need a clarification of what you meant, arthwol.

[EHocking]

Someone earlier in the thread mentioned something that I witnessed just a couple of days ago. Someone experienced a weird day (witnessed several auto accidents and a lot of craziness at their work--a hospital, but not in the ED), and someone else said, "It must be a full moon." It wasn't, but you can bet they'll count these events as support to the notion that the full moon causes people to act weirder.Also, the explanation may be more innocuous than you might be giving it credit for. Since the "belief" is pretty much entrenched in Western vernacular, this may well have been just a throw away line. I have been known to describe a particularly fortunate circumstance by ending the sentence with, "knock on wood". I neither believe in the root of the statement, nor do I actually knock on wood - but the intent of my statement is clear.

Saying, "must be a full moon" may be the equivalent in many cases of people verbally shrugging of odd coincidences, without really investing any belief in the "truth" of the statement itself.
Anyone know if there's a name for this? It's confirmation bias plus something else--a dearth of fact-checking or assuming things fit your bias even when they don't. (It's not quite shoehorning. . . )I think that in many cases that may merely be a the repetition of a social meme that it repeated, often, without any real conviction in the background statement, i.e. "cross your fingers", "knock on wood", "a goose just walked over my grave" etc.

Not superstitions, per se, just conversational crutches that delivers the gist of a feeling without the tediousness of a full dialogue?

[Pup]

The full moon question reminds me of fan death (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fan_death). It's easy to grope for logical as well as not-so-logical explanations when people just know that something must surely be true. When no one expects something to be true, it's simply a non-issue and there's no need to worry about it or search for explanations, because there's no emotional investment.

[arthwollipot]

Yes, people believe. But actual effect is not the reason. Time to look for other explanations for the belief.Um, hello? I'm pretty sure that was exactly what I was doing. I've already mentioned confirmation bias, way back at the beginning of the thread. Are we still in the same thread? Is this still the full moon thread? Or have I dropped off into some other thread that talks about Philip K. Dick stories?

[arthwollipot]

It would seem we need a clarification of what you meant, arthwol.You appear to be the only one who has a problem with it.

[JoeTheJuggler]

It is like confirmation bias as demonstrated in the Wason card selection task. People generally only pick the cards that can confirm, but not falsify, the hypothesis in question. So these people don't even turn over the card that says "New Moon" or "Not a Full moon" to attempt to falsify it..

You're right. In that sense, it's confirmation bias twice. Once for not even checking whether or not it was a full moon, and again for counting the hits and not counting the misses (even if the "hits" were actually hits and not in fact misses).

Selective memory. When there is certain activity and the Moon is full, you notice. When the same activity occurs and the Moon is not full, you forget.
But my point is that in some of these cases (where they remember something weird happened and there was a full moon), the moon in fact was not full.

In other words, not only are they remembering the hits and ignoring or forgetting the misses, but the "hits" set contains some misses since they didn't check their assumption that it *must* be a full moon.

[JoeTheJuggler]

Also, the explanation may be more innocuous than you might be giving it credit for. Since the "belief" is pretty much entrenched in Western vernacular, this may well have been just a throw away line. I have been known to describe a particularly fortunate circumstance by ending the sentence with, "knock on wood". I neither believe in the root of the statement, nor do I actually knock on wood - but the intent of my statement is clear.

Saying, "must be a full moon" may be the equivalent in many cases of people verbally shrugging of odd coincidences, without really investing any belief in the "truth" of the statement itself.


I get your point, and I'm sure people say it that way sometimes. (A buddy of mine likes to say "Friday the 13th fell on a XXXday this month" where XXXday is "today", a day when lots of mishaps have occurred.)

However, in the group having this conversation just a few days ago, I guarantee they all think there is something to the full moon thing. And I know that day (which was NOT a full moon) will go into their consciousness as yet another bit of proof for that idea.

Last time I met with this group previously, I challenged them on it, and they all said that they were sure there were "studies" that supported the idea that ERs and police departments saw more activity during the full moon. They were quite serious about it.

[Skeptic Ginger]

You appear to be the only one who has a problem with it.How do you know that? Lot's of people read threads but don't post. If someone asks for a clarification, why should that bother you?

As I read your posts you continue to claim there is a real effect. All I'm asking is for you to clarify your position. Are you claiming there is a real belief in an effect? No one is arguing there isn't.

But if you are claiming there is a real effect behind the belief, then the evidence does not support that conclusion.

[arthwollipot]

How do you know that? Lot's of people read threads but don't post. If someone asks for a clarification, why should that bother you?

As I read your posts you continue to claim there is a real effect. All I'm asking is for you to clarify your position. Are you claiming there is a real belief in an effect? No one is arguing there isn't.

But if you are claiming there is a real effect behind the belief, then the evidence does not support that conclusion.*sigh*

Here's the very first post I made in this thread:

One of my housemates worked for some time just across the room from the person who took 000 (the Australian equivalent of 911) ambulance calls. She was adamant that there are more calls over the full moon than at other times. Personally, I suggest confirmation bias.There's nothing in there that even remotely suggested that I thought there was a real effect.

However, reading through the rest of my posts, I think I can identify the one I made that may have been the one that you thought was unclear. It was your first response to me, after all:

Well, it is, kinda. Or rather, it can be. People will modify their behaviour consciously or subconsciously to conform to what they believe is predicted. This is what I referred to earlier as the self-fulfilling prophecy. In a way, the moon or the planets are influencing peoples' behaviour, but only because they are changing their own behaviour, and not because of any mystical link or influence.And yes, I understand now how you could have read the phrase "they are changing their behaviour" as claiming that there was a real effect. I was unclear.

But every other freaking post I have made in the thread has clearly shown that I don't claim that there is a real effect. Is this a case of first impressions? Had you been reading anything else I've been writing - including the very first post I made - you would have realised that this is not a claim that I am making. But you seem to be judging me based on only one out of the several posts I have made.

As I said, no-one else has had a problem understanding where I'm coming from - or at least if they have, they haven't found it significant enough to mention. Six7s understood me, as did Cuddles, and shandyjan, and Jeff Corey, all of whom responded to me in a manner that suggested to me that they knew I was not making a claim.

So please pay a little more attention to my body of work, and less to the one single post I made that was unclear.

I will repeat my Post #71, which was a direct response to you:

...the belief that the behaviour occurs occurs, which is what we are (or should be) discussing.

[EHocking]

I get your point, and I'm sure people say it that way sometimes. (A buddy of mine likes to say "Friday the 13th fell on a XXXday this month" where XXXday is "today", a day when lots of mishaps have occurred.)A very good example of the point I was trying to make.

However I do agree that there seem to be quite a number of people that "know" this UL to be "true". However, in the group having this conversation just a few days ago, I guarantee they all think there is something to the full moon thing. And I know that day (which was NOT a full moon) will go into their consciousness as yet another bit of proof for that idea.

Last time I met with this group previously, I challenged them on it, and they all said that they were sure there were "studies" that supported the idea that ERs and police departments saw more activity during the full moon. They were quite serious about it.Oh, I have no doubt about that. I got interested in urban legends, 10 or more years ago, and I'm not at all surprised how many are still held to be true.

I fully admit that I was quite surprised that some of the "common knowledge" that I had disseminated in the past were indeed ULs.
And before any pedant jumps down my throat - I fully realise that some ULs can, in fact, be true.

Just not this one.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Sigh.... I found your posts ambiguous, arthwollipot. It's not a big deal.

[arthwollipot]

Sigh.... I found your posts ambiguous, arthwollipot. It's not a big deal.Okay, well if you say so...

Do you have any input on why the myth may be so prevalent in Western society - even to the extent of being enshrined in the English language - given the fact that we all agree that there is no actual effect?

[Maia]

I actually thought of this thread in connection with something that happened at the long term care facility where I work. One resident passed away, and a nurse tech said, "Well, it always happens in threes. Y and Z will be next." (Cheerful.) Now, it doesn't exactly take prophetic ability to figure out that residents in a nursing home will be leaving us for the next realm, but it would be interesting to know where the "it happens in threes" myth came from, and also if anyone else has ever heard of it. Could this be an idea which would be more likely to pop up in the context of a LTC (as opposed to "full moon" silliness), because we do have long-term residents rather than people constantly coming and going?

[EHocking]

I actually thought of this thread in connection with something that happened at the long term care facility where I work. One resident passed away, and a nurse tech said, "Well, it always happens in threes. Y and Z will be next." (Cheerful.) Now, it doesn't exactly take prophetic ability to figure out that residents in a nursing home will be leaving us for the next realm, but it would be interesting to know where the "it happens in threes" myth came from, and also if anyone else has ever heard of it. Could this be an idea which would be more likely to pop up in the context of a LTC (as opposed to "full moon" silliness), because we do have long-term residents rather than people constantly coming and going?The pop etymology that I have come across seems to steer towards the influence of the Xtian Trinity. Luck, good and bad, comes in threes - as do buses.

ETA: I like this variation (http://www.mylot.com/w/discussions/2052528.aspx)on your retirement home story, and is quite relevant to the confirmation bias discussion taking place here: A good example is when I worked in a nursing home. If one resident passed away, we could count on at least two more, if a fourth passed, we count count on it being at least 6.

[StanBearclaw]

As with the full moon superstitions, it seems we can blame the "...comes in threes" on the ancients (no surprise there). But from what I've been reading on Google Books, the Greeks and especially Romans seemed to connect good luck with threes. Then over the years, I'm finding just as many references to bad luck coming in threes. Nowadays it seems to be primarily bad luck. Fortuna keeps changing her mind.