Astrology and earthquakes

[CFLarsen]

Incidentally.....talking about earthquakes...

During the past few days, I have had an animated discussion on AstrologyForum.dk, with a Danish astrologer, Finn Wandahl. He is so distinguished an astrologer that he writes the daily horoscopes for a major morning paper. Talk about credentials!

Now, it starts off innocently enough with an off-hand remark from Finn. He claimed that there is a comprehensive research in India regarding - among other things - methods for predicting droughts and earthquakes.

Enter li'l ol' me. I was able to - disturbingly quickly - show that this research was not very effective:

On January 26th, 2001, a powerful quake hit the province of Gujarat in India. It was the most devastating in 50 years, with 20,000 people dead and 160,000 wounded.

During 1990-2003 138,120 people have lost their lives globally due to quakes.

Annually, about 1,000 quakes ranging from "moderate" to "great" are registered. Each day about 9,000 minor quakes are registered.

Big quakes, 1900-2000:
1908, December 28th, Messina, Italy: 70-100,000 dead.
1920, December 16th, Gansu, China: 200,000 dead.
1923, September 1st, Kwanto, Japan: 143,000 dead.
1927, May 22nd, Xining, China: 200,000 dead.
1932, December 25th, Gansu, China: 70,000 dead.
1935, May 30th, Quetta, Pakistan: 30-60,000 dead.
1948, October 5th, Ashgabat, Turkmenistan: 110,000 dead.
1970, May 31st, Peru: 66,000 dead.
1976, July 27th, Tangshan, China: 255,000 dead (official numbers. Unofficially about ca. 655,000).
1990, June 20th, Iran: 50,000 dead.

None of these quakes were foretold by astrologers.

(Source: National Earthquake Information Center, U.S. Geological Survey.)

This was immediately challenged by Finn Wandahl. He claimed that the Gujarat quake was in fact predicted not just by one, but two astrologers: Sri N. Rao and Pandit Jai Prakash Madhak. Finn claimed that Madhak's prediction was "quite unique", since Madhak nailed both the date and the place.

Finn then presented his evidence: A reference to a "detailed" article, written by himself, three links to newspaper articles, and a quote from a newspaper.

True to form, I checked his sources. Not one was written before the quake happened. One was even written in Hindi.

I asked if Finn had any source dating before the actual quake.

The discussion went downhill from then on: He asked me if I - or any of my skeptical friends - could translate the Hindi webpage.

Smell a rat here? I sure did.

Now, as a side note, Finn Wandahl, according to his own web page,
"has been studying, practicing and pioneering Vedic astrology in the Scandinavian countries for nearly 25 years. Is the author of two books on Vedic astrology. Was awarded a Certificate of Honor in 1999 by Institute of Astrology, Bharatiya Vidya Bhavan, University of New Delhi."
Source (http://www.wandahl.com/)

Finn markets himself as a very experienced Vedic astrologer with close connections and frequent travels to India. So, he should be able to at least explain what the Hindi web site was about. Hey, he was the one posting it.

At this point, unfortunately, he tried to redirect the discussion by complaining about the use of "woowoo". Not falling for that ruse, I tried to keep the issue in focus. I simply asked him how he could refer to an article he didn't understand.

He completely abandoned any pretense of discussing quakes, and insisted that I answered his question about the usage of "woowoo".

I, on the other hand, insisted on finishing one issue, before starting another. Had he - or had he not - any references before the date of the quake, and was he - or was he not - able to tell us what the Hindi web page meant?

His reluctant answer?

"I can't translate the article".

While this was going on, something was tickling my brain, so I went back and checked. Finn, this expert on Vedic astrology and a frequent traveller to India, had claimed that the date of the quake, Jan 26th, was Independence Day. I pointed out that it was not. Jan 26th is Republic Day, when the constitution was ratified. Independence Day is August 15th. Facts, always. But that's just me.

Finn, on the other hand, went ballistic:
"Here is yet one of your nasty attempts to drag another person on a merry-go-round in your sick brain"

He then maintained his claim that "most of the Indian press refers to Pandit Madhak's fantastic prediction". Without even trying to back up his claim, he then pulled a Steve Grenard: He asked me to do a google.

He was not my "servant", and did not share my "ridiculous, undergraduate need" to prove what he himself knew.

So there!

Unpertubed, I recapped:

He claimed that Vedic astrology can predict earth quakes.
I posted a list that clearly showed that quakes are not predicted by Vedic astrologers.
He claimed that it had happened, in the case of Gujarat.
He referred to sources, all post-hoc.
He even referred to a source which he himself could not read.
I asked for his sources before the quake happened.
He told me to do a google, because he knew himself what happened.

Completely ignoring this, he re-iterated his question designed to redirect the discussion: The use of "woowoo".

Feeling that this particular discussion was over, and the outcome decided (no evidence of Vedic astrologers being able to predict quakes, and Finn having no idea what he was doing), I - agreeable as I am - gave Finn my answer.

I won't go into details about that discussion. It has no relevance to the quake-issue. Suffice it to say that Finn accused not just me, but all skeptics of claiming to be "übermenschen", while astrologers and the like were "untermenschen". Phrases like "Führer" (meaning Randi), "long-booted boys in the Party", "a dictatorship of opinions", it wouldn't be long before skeptics "started throwing stones through astrologers' windows" and that "skeptics did not need to tell the truth to a believer", flew through the air.

All, of course, completely hatched in Finn's mind. Hey, he had to find a way out, I guess.

When I tried to clarify that I did not have any of the views he was imposing on me, he simply stated that I did not know my inner self.

So there!

When Finn suggested that he might come to JREF and "once and for all put me in my place", I strongly suggested several times that he did. After much bally-hoo, he backed down.

He reads JREF, so I expect some repercussions. The AstrologyForum.dk is open for everyone as it is (although rampant censorship takes place by relocating critical posts to oubliettes and inventing new rules on-the-fly to prevent embarrassing questions), but I suspect that will soon change.

Oh, well.

Too bad astrologers can't predict earth quakes. So many peoples' lives could be saved.

Too bad no astrologers are interested in this.

[Ed]

Too bad that they, in the tradition of Woo, lie.

[RabbiSatan]

Bravo Claus :D

Another triumph for rationality, we really need more people like you (I'm just a fledgling) ;)

[Cleopatra]

Astrology cannot predict Earthquakes.I have never heard a serious Astrologer claiming that.If I search my books I might find references to the contrary.

Some Astrologers interpret the Square between Pluto and Mars as a possible indication of a geological phaenomenon but given of the speed of the rotation of Mars around the Sun, it can square Pluto at least once a year. Hopefully everytime that this happens we don't have an earthquake.

Please. Don't scare the man, let him join us :)

[RabbiSatan]

Edit: Ack, pressed back a few times whilst browsing and accidentally re-posted, ack.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
Please. Don't scare the man, let him join us :)

I have tried very hard, but he doesn't want to. I guess he has his own reasons...

[Keneke]

Hey, CFLarsen, what advice do you have to skeptics who are up against tough woowoos like that and need proof but do NOT have the time or intelligence to do research?

You should put all this into little sections for easy usage. Great job.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Keneke
Hey, CFLarsen, what advice do you have to skeptics who are up against tough woowoos like that and need proof but do NOT have the time or intelligence to do research?

Sorry, but there is no substitute for research. If you want to go up against woowoos, tough or not, you have to back up your claims with facts, each step of the way. You also have to do research to counter their claims. They sure aren't going to do it for you.

Being a skeptic is not easy. But it sure is fun, and you learn so much....

Originally posted by Keneke
You should put all this into little sections for easy usage. Great job.

(cough) (http://www.skepticreport.com) ;)

[CFLarsen]

Ah, Finn replied.

I showed him the link to this thread, and encouraged him to defend himself.

His answer:

"Why should I? I can see from the link that you have already won our discussion on JREF - even without my participation.

Thanks for the fight :-)))"

Of course, he later claimed that I was not being "objective". I asked him to show me where I was not being truthful.

He couldn't.

He chose a bottle of wine instead. And it's midnight in Denmark now.... So sad.

[pupdog]

Any of these wonderful astrologers work in Paso Robles, California? Or do they consider predicting quakes ahead of time (rather than post-predicting them) hot-dogging?

[Cleopatra]

Claus, is that forum English speaking? Can you tell me which aspects (of Planets) they believe that they predict Earthquakes? For example Claudius Ptolemy believed that the observation of the Pleiades could provide info about Earthquakes, others consider the aspects I mentioned as indications of an earthquake and some English Astrologers talk about orbits of the Moon which is TOTAL BS considering Moon's speed.

I am curious and just out of curiosity I want to check the charts of the days earthquakes occured. Can Mr. Finn be of some help, please? :)

[Yahweh]

Congratulations, Claus :)

I wouldnt blame the guy for getting pissy after you demonstrated the way he's been throwing the better part of his life away in the study of this "Vedic Astrology"...

If I could speak Danish, I would join in the discussion...

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Yahweh
Congratulations, Claus :)

I wouldnt blame the guy for getting pissy after you demonstrated the way he's been throwing the better part of his life away in the study of this "Vedic Astrology"...

If I could speak Danish, I would join in the discussion...

Those people might call each other "professor" and "doctor" but you can become a doctor of Vedic Astrology in 6 months...you don't exactly throw a lifetime in astrological studies.

[CFLarsen]

Cleopatra, Yahweh,

All in a day's work. :)

The forum is Danish, but I don't think there are any rules against English-speaking people. Almost all people born after WW2 can speak English well enough to hold a conversation.

This is the appropriate thread: http://www.astrologyforum.dk/log/discus/html/messages/1401/2043.html?

Write your question in the big input field.

"Brugernavn" is "Username" (e.g. you can use your JREF nick)

Click on "Se udkast/send indlæg".

You will then be taken to a preview page. If you are dissatisfied with your post, edit it, and click on "Se udkast/send indlæg" for a new preview page. If you are satisfied, click on "Send dette indlæg".

I recommend strongly you to save the page with your new post immediately after it has finished downloading. Critical posts have been known to be removed without notice and placed where nobody would look.

[Keneke]

Originally posted by CFLarsen


Sorry, but there is no substitute for research. If you want to go up against woowoos, tough or not, you have to back up your claims with facts, each step of the way. You also have to do research to counter their claims. They sure aren't going to do it for you.

Being a skeptic is not easy. But it sure is fun, and you learn so much....

(cough) (http://www.skepticreport.com) ;)

The problem with simply being skeptical is that your disbelief in things SHOULd be an inherent right, but personally, I am always under attack for not believing in religion, fortune telling, and whatever the majority finds interesting at the time. I become quite hermit-like because of the constant social pressure. THAT'S the reason atheists are "cranky", because we have to put up with people who cram stuff in our face.

Yes, I already know about your website. I like it, it's cool. I was just thinking about the skeptical version of pamphlets. Something concise and well-researched I could hand out when someone bugs me about a particular topic. Skeptical Chick tracts, fun. Those pamphlets really could be helpful though. "You believe in astrology? Here, read this. Proof it's BS."

[CFLarsen]

Keneke,

You could go to SkepDic.com, Bob Carroll's excellent site.

Still, if you want to nail those who pester you, listen to their arguments, then go back and find evidence. Handing out a pamphlet might drive the message home, but don't count on it.

Sorry, if you want to be a skeptic, you're in for the long haul.... :)

[Keneke]

Thing is, I don't see skepticism identifying myself. I see it as a tool: if I need to debate something, I pull it out. That's the reason I don't post too often on these boards: I have much greater interests in my life. Music, engineering, Disney. These things sustain me. Skepticism is like getting my college degree: it's something I need, I use it every day, and I had a lot of fun getting it (paaaarty!), but I don't want to be in college forever. Similarly, I don't want to constantly be on guard against evangelical zeal forever. It doesn't take much to simply say no to someone selling something, like crystals or other nonsense, but what I worry about is people's views always getting in my face. Maybe it's because I live in Alabama (that's the Deep South, often called the Bible Belt here in America).

Hm, maybe I should start a new thread on this?

[plindboe]

Nice work Claus. http://images.bravenet.com/common/images/smilies/25_coolguy.gif

I'll check that astrology forum out now.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by plindboe
Nice work Claus. http://images.bravenet.com/common/images/smilies/25_coolguy.gif

I'll check that astrology forum out now.

See you there :)

[CFLarsen]

Update:

This morning, around 10am local time, a small earthquake hit the Eastern part of Sjælland (the biggest island, where Copenhagen is). Several houses shook and doors were rattling. Richter: 3. A larger explosion on land could have created the same disturbance.

OK, not exactly the greatest catastrophe ever, but nevertheless: An earthquake, in an area that hardly ever gets noticable ones:
Maps (http://www.kms.dk/C1256AED004E96E3/(AllDocsByDocId)/1A917DF44DE6D629C1256C95003629F5?open&page=seismologi&omr=FORSK_OMRAADER)
Table (http://www.kms.dk/C1256AED004E96E3/(AllDocsByDocId)/D8F81FED913EE210C1256C92004AB232?open&page=seismologi&omr=FORSK_OMRAADER)

For the record:

The earthquake was not predicted by astrologers.

Either.

[Ladewig]

Cleopatra
Can you tell me which aspects (of Planets) they believe that they predict Earthquakes?

Yes. I, too, want to know how they apply astrology to earthquake prediction.

Given that computers make it very easy to check the locations of all the planets well into the distant future, are there any future predictions of earthquakes from Sri N. Rao and Pandit Jai Prakash Madhak?

[CFLarsen]

The death toll from a devastating earthquake in northern Morocco has reached at least 300 and is expected to rise, Moroccan officials say.
Morocco quake toll reaches 300 (http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/africa/02/24/morocco.quake/index.html)

For the record:

The earthquake was not predicted by astrologers.

Either.

[CFLarsen]

Ladewig,

I have asked Finn Wandahl if he has an answer to your question. I'll keep you posted.

You can also email him yourself at moderator@astrologyforum.dk

[MRC_Hans]

Too bad about Finn. When I met him at the long departed Danish skeptic forum, he was friendly and polite (if evasive, heheh). Seems some Karen Boesen style has rubbed off on him since then :rolleyes:.

Hans

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by MRC_Hans
Too bad about Finn. When I met him at the long departed Danish skeptic forum, he was friendly and polite (if evasive, heheh). Seems some Karen Boesen style has rubbed off on him since then :rolleyes:.

Let's just say that I have seen some sides of Finn that I seriously doubt he wants to become all too public....

[Bjorn]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Let's just say that I have seen some sides of Finn that I seriously doubt he wants to become all too public.... With all respect, that statement is simply not fair.

An accusation, too vague to defend against and yet more than hinting that he has something to hide.

Claus, you're usually wiser than this. What happened? :confused:

[aries]

Hello !

What Finn belives is up to him...

But as i have stated in another forum (in Danish) i do not believe that astrologers should or even could predict earth quakes...

Earth qaukes is cause by nature, god, or chance or whatever...

the stars have absolutely nothingh do with it...(that the way I see it...)

aries

[CFLarsen]

Update:
Over 500 killed in Morocco quake (http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/africa/02/24/morocco.quake/index.html)
The shattering earthquake that struck northern Morocco early Tuesday has claimed 564 lives, the country's Interior Ministry said as hundreds of people prepared to spend the night outside for fear of aftershocks.

Another 300 people were reported injured, 80 of them seriously, the ministry said.


No word from Finn Wandahl yet.

Originally posted by Bjorn
With all respect, that statement is simply not fair.

An accusation, too vague to defend against and yet more than hinting that he has something to hide.

Claus, you're usually wiser than this. What happened? :confused:

I am talking about his posts on the astrology boards. I have referenced some of his utterings here, but they are only tip of the iceberg.

Originally posted by aries
What Finn belives is up to him...

No, no. It's not what Finn believes. He has claimed that evidence exists. He has not been able to show it, though.

Originally posted by aries
But as i have stated in another forum (in Danish) i do not believe that astrologers should or even could predict earth quakes...

Earth qaukes is cause by nature, god, or chance or whatever...

the stars have absolutely nothingh do with it...(that the way I see it...)

Is it opinion, then? Astrology is what you make it?

[CFLarsen]

Ladewig,

I got a reply from Finn Wandahl about your question.

"I haven't followed it, so therefore I know nothing about it."

Fascinating, isn't it? Here, we have an astrologer, who argues that astrology can predict earthquakes, but he is too preoccupied to even follow it.

[Ladewig]

"I haven't followed it, so therefore I know nothing about it."

Fascinating, isn't it? Here, we have an astrologer, who argues that astrology can predict earthquakes, but he is too preoccupied to even follow it.

I'm glad I wasn't drinking soda when I read this response.

An interesting decision: should one research this topic releated to one's chosen profession with the hope of saving tens of thousands of lives each year, of preventing tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of damage, of silencing skeptics and psuedo-skeptics forever, of changing the scientific world immeasurably, and of helping these Indian astrologers to win a Nobel Prize OR should one write about how people born under the sign of Aries will have monetary problems this coming Tuesday?
__________
Why should we take these astrology claims seriously when professional astrologers don't take them seriously?

[Blondin]

Many (many) years ago I dated a Virgo who made the Earth move for me. Does that count? :)

[Zep]

Funny how Finn's words about "jackboots" and references to Nazism seem to echo Karen Boesen's unfortunately similar remarks here on JREF in her own thread. I hope this is not a trend we will see continue.

However, Finn, if you are reading here, then just as Karen Boesen has done, you are cordially invited to come and post here on this forum with your own words and explanations for your work. We pride ourselves on seeking the evidence before making any decisions, and you are welcome to submit yours.

Remember, changing a skeptic's mind is really easy: provide valid evidence!

cheers
zep

[Loki]

Claus,

One of the guys I work with is Indian, and was in India in January 2001 to visit his parents (but nowhere near the Gujrat quake). When he returned to Australia he mentioned that a magazine had run a story in December 2000 featuring the predictions for 2001 for seven 'leading' astrologers. He was interested in this because his family is very pro-astrology, and he was (at the time) undecided (he's far more skeptical now!). He showed me a link to the article (in English) in which the predictions were made. I kept the link, but not the article (oops!) - I'll see if I can dig it back up.

In the article, one astrologer (perhaps one of the men mentioned by Finn - I don't remember the names) did predict a major earthquake "in the northwest" in "January or February, or later in the year" - note the widening of the time estimate to include the entire year!

So, back in 2001 I did some research for my work collegue. First stop was here (http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/seismo/static/significant-eq.htm). Clearly, with 4 similar quakes (one in the same region!) in the immediate 10 years leading up to the prediction, there's a base 40% change of being right anyway.

Taking it further, this (http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/seismo/static/seismicity-map.htm) shows that in the Indian region there have been almost 3400 quakes of magnitude 5 or higher in the past 200 years - that's 17 a year! The overwhemling majority of quakes in India itself are in the north west or north east. Predicting a quake of 5 or above somewhere in Indian in any given year appears almost 100%.

The interesting thing about the article was that these 7 astrologers made quite a lsit of predictions, most of them of the vague unveriable type (ie : "Prime Minister will experience diifulties in the Parliament" and "cricket team will do well" - just how do you measure that?). But a few were quite unambiguous, so I checked the list in early 2002 to see how they'd gone. One clear prediction was that the Indian National Gand Master in chess ( Viswanathan Anand) would reach the world number one ranking. I checked with the FIDE records (http://www.fide.com/ratings/archive.phtml) - he didn't get higher than #3 in 2001, although he started 2001 at #2. The other was that India would go to war with Pakistan no later than March 2002. Wrong! There were others, but I can't remember the details at the moment. I'll chase up the article/link if I can.

[Loki]

Claus,

Can't find the actual article (still looking), but I'm fairly sure this (http://www.newsindia-times.com/2002/02/01/towp27-predictions.html) is the part of the original text that refers to the 'successful' prediction. This would have been orginally printed in the December 24, 2000 edition of "The Week" (a month before the quake - my Indian work collegue said he read of the prediction a month before the quake occured ) :

“The country will face crippling natural calamities, which could occur in the first fortnight of January 2001 and also anytime during the year, particularly after March.” — K.N. Rao, editor of Quarterly Journal of Astrology, in the Dec. 24 issue of newsmagazine The Week
This is exactly how I recall the prediction, It was :

(a) specific - "first fortnight of January 2001 ";
(b) non-specific - "anytime during the year, particularly after March.";
(c) wrong - the quake actually occured in the last week of January.

I also seem to recall a second prediction in the original article specifying "earthquake in the north west", but it doesn't appear to be the same one as the 'January' prediction. I'll try to find the original article, and then I won't have to keep trying to drag details back from the memory banks...

[aries]

Hello :)

Sorry --- i think my post should read...

if Finn want to claim that astrology can predict earth quakes that is up to him...

and also

let me clarify:

as I see it astrolgy cannot be used to predict earth quakes.

aries

[FutileJester]

Welcome to the forum!

Originally posted by aries
as I see it astrolgy cannot be used to predict earth quakes.

aries

Can you describe what you see as possible with astrology? Are there any general rules for what kind of data we can expect to get out of astrology?

[Toastrider]

I would sooner trust wild animals to predict earthquakes than astrologers.

At least the animals would not deliberately lie to you.

--Toasty

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Ladewig
I'm glad I wasn't drinking soda when I read this response.

I'm sure your monitor and keyboard loves you for it! :)

Originally posted by Ladewig
An interesting decision: should one research this topic releated to one's chosen profession with the hope of saving tens of thousands of lives each year, of preventing tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of damage, of silencing skeptics and psuedo-skeptics forever, of changing the scientific world immeasurably, and of helping these Indian astrologers to win a Nobel Prize OR should one write about how people born under the sign of Aries will have monetary problems this coming Tuesday?

I agree. Now, I am not saying that every astrologer in the world should drop their newspaper columns (Finn Wandahl has one, for one of the biggest morning papers in DK) and focus entirely on earthquake research. I just wish that astrologers weren't so indifferent to the subject.

Originally posted by Ladewig
Why should we take these astrology claims seriously when professional astrologers don't take them seriously?

Exactly. It does raise the question where their priorities lie.

Originally posted by Zep
Funny how Finn's words about "jackboots" and references to Nazism seem to echo Karen Boesen's unfortunately similar remarks here on JREF in her own thread. I hope this is not a trend we will see continue.

Unfortunately, I can inform you that it is escalating. The past few days, I asked how the new object 2004 DW would be considered, astrology-wise. An astrologer answered, but - unfortunately - by his answers revealed an impossible dilemma for astrology. The result was that the thread was moved to an area where I could not reply. When I asked the moderators why this was, my posts were removed as soon as I posted them. No reason was given, no explanations whatsoever.

However, although forum rules strictly forbid any nasty comments about anyone, astrologers were allowed to post those about skeptics (me, primarily).

It's a longer story than that, but - you bet it is escalating.

Originally posted by Zep
However, Finn, if you are reading here, then just as Karen Boesen has done, you are cordially invited to come and post here on this forum with your own words and explanations for your work. We pride ourselves on seeking the evidence before making any decisions, and you are welcome to submit yours.

I concur. I have several times invited Finn here, but he has refused every time.

Originally posted by Zep
Remember, changing a skeptic's mind is really easy: provide valid evidence!

Yup. Maybe that's why we generally don't see that many astrologers here.


Loki,

Interesting. Perhaps worth an article? :)


Originally posted by aries
if Finn want to claim that astrology can predict earth quakes that is up to him...

I'm not sure, but are you yourself an astrologer? Don't astrologers have some sort of business ethics that ensures that wild unfounded claims are not allowed? We find that in all other sorts of businesses, but not here?

Originally posted by aries
as I see it astrolgy cannot be used to predict earth quakes.

Why not?

[Loki]

Claus,

Perhaps worth an article?
I'll consider it if I can get a hold of a copy of the original piece. I'm not prepared to try and write an article about my memory of what people said 3 years ago! I've tried to contact the magazine about getting a copy, but their web site seems 'broken' at the moment - almost every link fails. I'll see what I can do...

[CFLarsen]

Loki,

Fair enough! :)

[Correa Neto]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
...some English Astrologers talk about orbits of the Moon which is TOTAL BS considering Moon's speed.
...

Every now and then someone tries to link earth tides with earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Maybe that´s what they try to use as "proof" or a link between quakes and astrology.

But the results I´ve seen regarding the connection between earthquakes (and volcanism) with earth tides are unconclusive at best.

Now, "predicting" an earthquake with the usual astrological or mediunic precision is not that hard. Certain areas of the world are prone to earthquakes. Unfortunately, many of these places are located in poor countries, where buildings and infrastructure are not exactly the best, and chances of casulaties are high.

So, if someone made the following prophecy-
"An earthquake will happen in Iran in 2004 killing many people"
This would hardly be a proof of anything.

[CFLarsen]

Bump for aries.