Any actuaries on board?

[TillEulenspiegel]

I ask because I have a neat idea. There are so many Arab this and Isreali that tracts I think we could develop a scientific model of definition and " worth" of ...say a Palistinian life VS an Isreali life and all the applied constraints ( longevity, expected lifetime income, relative value of the skills of each subject ( ala the world trade disaster) Obviously an Israeli stockbrokers weighted worth is greater then say a displaced Arab olive farmer, but we need to find an actuarial construct to plug in the data and reach a dispassionate outcome. This will finally give all of us a grip on the slippery and subjective plaintive nature of the most distorted and myopic of modern debates. It will be expressed in numbers and will finally give an objective handle on an emotional debate that is not only non-productive but anal in it's attention to pruned editorialization.


Any takers?

[Bjorn]

[actuarial voice]
Well, we could do it - but a lot off issues must be taken into consideration, including, i.e., the savings on the social security system of each area when people die early.

Lifetime income is mostly valuable to the person (and to whoever he pays or doesn't pay taxes), his occupation might make him more or less valuable to his society.

The value of a stockbroker compared to an olive farmer depends on how easy they are to replace, and so on.

What about the family? How much did they depend on the guy who got shot, what will happen to the children now (drugs, crime, suicide bombings) compared to what would have happened if the father had survived.

How many kids are influenced - do we create 2 potential bombers on one side and 10 on the other, how do we measure the potential future damages to property? Will one of them bomb the stock exchange and make a lot more damage than the killing of the one stockbroker ever did?

It'll take a lot of money to do the study - but throw in a million ...
[/actuarial voice]

[TillEulenspiegel]

The reason I asked is because the task requires an expert in the field. I can't begin to construct the model an expert could, but as an observer of the way the process works for insurance companies, I figured this would be the ideal application of the sterile art of statistical probability and analysis removing the emotional stigma of death defined by "race". How pristine, how even in it's application without messy regard towards old cliches like age or sex ...Man THAT'S the Ticket!

[Bjorn]

Originally posted by TillEulenspiegel
removing the emotional stigma of death defined by "race". Race?

I thought you were talking about arabs and israelies - is there a racial issue there? What race are the israelies?

[Drooper]

Originally posted by TillEulenspiegel
I ask because I have a neat idea. There are so many Arab this and Isreali that tracts I think we could develop a scientific model of definition and " worth" of ...say a Palistinian life VS an Isreali life and all the applied constraints ( longevity, expected lifetime income, relative value of the skills of each subject ( ala the world trade disaster) Obviously an Israeli stockbrokers weighted worth is greater then say a displaced Arab olive farmer, but we need to find an actuarial construct to plug in the data and reach a dispassionate outcome. This will finally give all of us a grip on the slippery and subjective plaintive nature of the most distorted and myopic of modern debates. It will be expressed in numbers and will finally give an objective handle on an emotional debate that is not only non-productive but anal in it's attention to pruned editorialization.


Any takers?


Having expertise as an actuary and an economist, I would say this is more in the field of economics, rather than actuarial studies (which is more liabitility slanted, rather than asset slanted).


Placing monetary values on lives is something that has some considerable researcvh behind it. However, the approach is not of the "financial accounting type", e.g. how much does the person earn, how much does he/she cost etc.. In general, attempts are made to appraise how much people are willing to forgo in order to prevent one extra (marginal) death. This can be done empirically, by seeing how people vote with their wallets as well as by testing people for the the relevant prices, by devising exeroments that give people trade offs to make.

What you find is that the vlaue of a life is a postive function with respect to national income - the wealthier the country, the higher the vale (so Israelis would get a positive boost to this). On the other hand, there are diminishing returns to avoided mortality - which means that, for example, all other thing being equal we would be willing to pay more to reduce mortality from 50% to 49%, than we would to reduce it from 2% to 1%. I would reckon that this would boost Palestinians' valuation on life.

The question is the relative size of the two effects, which you would need to find out empirically. My guess is that income effects would diminate, so Israeli's valuation of life would come out higher.

[The Fool]

3 Actuarial Jokes in decending order of humour.

1. Did you hear about the Actuary who was sacked for pricing an Automotive fire and theft policy at $5 for 12 months full coverage. When hauled before the boss he said "well, who would want to steal a burning car ??".....

2. Q. How many Actuaries does it take to change a light bulb.
A. How many did it take last year?

3. Did you hear about the Actuary that when he thought he was having a heart attack threw himself down the stairs? He knew that the probability of having a heart attack and a bad fall on the same day was a lot less.

thank you ladies and gentlemen, I'll be performing here all week....

[Giz]

Q: What is the difference between an actuary and the actuary for the Mob?

A: An Actuary knows how many people will die in the next year, but the Actuary for the Mob knows their names!



"3. Did you hear about the Actuary that when he thought he was having a heart attack threw himself down the stairs? He knew that the probability of having a heart attack and a bad fall on the same day was a lot less."
- I'd heard this as the old lady, afraid of flying, who asked an actuary about the chance of:
i) The plane crashing (Oh, about one in 10,000 says the actuary)
ii) Someone smuggling a bomb onboard (pretty unlikely, about 100,000 says the actuary)
Still unconvinced, she asks the odds of both happening! (Massively unlikely says the actuary - thats billions to one)
So now she always flies with a bomb!

[Giz]

If my above post does help to resolve the middle-east situation, the Nobel Prize committee can contact me via PM when they want to get in touch.

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by TillEulenspiegel
I ask because I have a neat idea. There are so many Arab this and Isreali that tracts I think we could develop a scientific model of definition and " worth" of ...say a Palistinian life VS an Isreali life and all the applied constraints ( longevity, expected lifetime income, relative value of the skills of each subject ( ala the world trade disaster) Obviously an Israeli stockbrokers weighted worth is greater then say a displaced Arab olive farmer, but we need to find an actuarial construct to plug in the data and reach a dispassionate outcome. This will finally give all of us a grip on the slippery and subjective plaintive nature of the most distorted and myopic of modern debates. It will be expressed in numbers and will finally give an objective handle on an emotional debate that is not only non-productive but anal in it's attention to pruned editorialization.


Any takers?

From our discussions I have realized and you have admitted that you know very little of the area, the conflict and its people. Why don't you spend some time studying the issue first?
You lack basic knowledge regarding the conflict. In fact from all the people I have discussed here I believe that you know the less about the conflict. Numbers are not the answer to the lack of basic knowledge. At least this is my opinion :)

[TillEulenspiegel]

Out of scope. Were talking about statistics in this thread.

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by TillEulenspiegel
Out of scope. Were talking about statistics in this thread.


How can you set up a statistic about an issue you are not fully aware of?

[Chaos]

Originally posted by Cleopatra



How can you set up a statistic about an issue you are not fully aware of?

That is the heart and soul of statistics.

Did you know the (old but fitting) joke about statistitians (sp?)?

They say "Well, in the desert it is 50°C during daytime and -10°C during nighttime. On the average, this is a perfectly comfortable 20°C average - I don´t understand why people don´t want to live there..."

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Chaos


That is the heart and soul of statistics.

Did you know the (old but fitting) joke about statistitians (sp?)?

They say "Well, in the desert it is 50°C during daytime and -10°C during nighttime. On the average, this is a perfectly comfortable 20°C average - I don´t understand why people don´t want to live there..."


Yeah I know the joke but since this thread wasn't in the Humor Section I thought that TE was serious.

[Soapy Sam]

He's probably as serious as any average human with one testicle and one ovary can be. (Is that an old actuarial joke or a statistical one?)

Cleopatra, we all know there is nothing funny about the Israeli / Palestinian situation, or the Sunni/ Shia, Catholic/ Protestant, Greek/ Turk , Fleming/ Walloon situation... (well ok, maybe the last one is a little funny, or at least sounds like it ought to be). At the end of the day though, how much does any of us really know about such conflicts, including (perhaps especially) those most intimately involved in them?

And really, truly, honestly, how much do we care?

In all these cases and more, there is historical perfidy piled upon treachery on either side. Who is "right"? What does "right" mean when everyone acts like an ass? The issues are complex beyond rational judgement. The temptation to cry " a plague on both your houses" is very strong.

Sometimes I wish those omnipotent aliens would really land and just knock everybody's heads together until they jar some sense in.

Sorry. I have no solutions. I just feel like ranting.

[Chaos]

Originally posted by Cleopatra



Yeah I know the joke but since this thread wasn't in the Humor Section I thought that TE was serious.

I, too, think he was serious. It´s just that mathematicians and statisticians have this reputation that, if it is now a definite number, it cannot be important.

On the other hand, the old game of "who did what, when, to whom" won´t help Israelis and Palestinians. TE´s suggestion is one idea how to solve the problem, but probably not a good one.

[gnome]

I think the flaw in this approach is trying to express the problem in quantitative terms, when it is surely not a quantitative problem...

First of all I contend any effort to define the "worth" of a human life is invalid.

Second, I fail to see how claiming such knowledge would help resolve the situation. I can't look at a number to decide who's right and who's wrong.

[TillEulenspiegel]

Gnome Et Al
Even tho I posted something which has more than a bit of irony in it, I specifically mentioned the World Trade Center dispersment as an example of applied actuarial / statistical science, so there is a real world precedent.

The resons behind my post remain my own.

Edit to add. No thread hijackers please.

[rockoon]

Originally posted by gnome
I think the flaw in this approach is trying to express the problem in quantitative terms, when it is surely not a quantitative problem...

First of all I contend any effort to define the "worth" of a human life is invalid.



Surely upper and lower bounds could be set.