Climate News from the science press

[BenBurch]

I'll be posting news articles in here as I see them. Please confine discussion to said articles or post some of your own. Not interested in blog postings, or anything more than one week old for purposes of this thread. Do not flame ware this thread. If a troll :troll posts, ignore the troll. Thank you.

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news177772960.html

The oceans play a key role in regulating climate, absorbing more than a quarter of the carbon dioxide that humans put into the air. Now, the first year-by-year accounting of this mechanism during the industrial era suggests the oceans are struggling to keep up with rising emissions -- a finding with potentially wide implications for future climate. The study appears in this week's issue of the journal Nature. <SNIP>

On one hand this is bad because a natural sink is disappearing, and this will accelerate warming. On the other hand this means acidification will not be as great as feared and this will have a less negative effect on ocean biological damage.

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news177258173.html

Satellite observations and a state-of-the art regional atmospheric model have independently confirmed that the Greenland ice sheet is loosing mass at an accelerating rate, reports a new study in Science.

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news177686530.html

The strongest evidence yet that the rise in atmospheric CO2 emissions continues to outstrip the ability of the world's natural 'sinks' to absorb carbon is published this week in the journal Nature Geoscience.

An international team of researchers under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project reports that over the last 50 years the average fraction of global CO2 emissions that remained in the atmosphere each year was around 43 per cent - the rest was absorbed by the Earth's carbon sinks on land and in the oceans. During this time this fraction has likely increased from 40 per cent to 45 per cent, suggesting a decrease in the efficiency of the natural sinks. The team brings evidence that the sinks are responding to climate change and variability.

The scientists report a 29 per cent increase in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel between 2000 and 2008 (the latest year for which figures are available), and that in spite of the global economic downturn emissions increased by 2 per cent during 2008. The use of coal as a fuel has now surpassed oil and developing countries now emit more greenhouse gases than developed countries - with a quarter of their growth in emissions accounted for by increased trade with the West.

<SNIP>


I whatever emissions targets they have been talking about on the inter-governmental level, we will have outstripped them by the time they are agreed upon.

Note that a consequence of this is that fossil fuel use is up almost 30 percent too, and this means the dwindling stocks of oil and high quality coal are dwindling even faster. Not a good trend!

[BenBurch]

PhysOrg.com) -- A new study of Antarctica's past climate reveals that temperatures during the warm periods between ice ages (interglacials) may have been higher than previously thought. The latest analysis of ice core records suggests that Antarctic temperatures may have been up to 6°C warmer than the present day.

<SNIP>

Previous analysis of ice cores has shown that the climate consists of ice ages and warmer interglacial periods roughly every 100,000 years. This new investigation shows temperature 'spikes' within some of the interglacial periods over the last 340,000 years. This suggests Antarctic temperature shows a high level of sensitivity to greenhouse gases at levels similar to those found today.

Lead author Louise Sime of British Antarctic Survey said,
"We didn't expect to see such warm temperatures, and we don't yet know in detail what caused them. But they indicate that Antarctica's climate may have undergone rapid shifts during past periods of high CO2."
During the last warm period, about 125,000 years ago, sea level was around 5 metres higher than today.

<SNIP>


Emphasis mine.

[casebro]

Sort of blows the 'A' out of AGW don't it?

Is there an updated graph of the glacial cycles? ('Eastern European Name' cycles?) What with the higher spikes, it would make it obvious that man didn't do them, and that man ain't the cause of this spike. And the current spike ain't all that high. Earth will survive this one too.

[BenBurch]

Sort of blows the 'A' out of AGW don't it?

Is there an updated graph of the glacial cycles? ('Eastern European Name' cycles?) What with the higher spikes, it would make it obvious that man didn't do them, and that man ain't the cause of this spike. And the current spike ain't all that high. Earth will survive this one too.

No, it shows the sensitivity to CO2. We will get a rise equivalent to the last interglacial and ADD TO THAT fossil CO2. We can expect more extreme results. Past variability due to natural cycles is what we need to explore to understand the ramifications of an un-natural modification to atmospheric gasses.

[macdoc]

Since dinosaurs were around and went extinct without anthro involvement I guess we aren't the cause of the 6th Extinction event.....:boggled:
Ever heard of a guy named Milankovitch?

Here ya go
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/milankovitch.html

Quite the application of common sense there boyo....:garfield:

•••••

snip

Record High Temperatures Far Outpace Record Lows Across US

ScienceDaily (Nov. 12, 2009) — Spurred by a warming climate, daily record high temperatures occurred twice as often as record lows over the last decade across the continental United States, new research shows. The ratio of record highs to lows is likely to increase dramatically in coming decades if emissions of greenhouse gases continue to climb.
continues
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 121611.htm

and cooking down under too...

Two years, three record heat waves in southeastern Australia
Posted on 14 November 2009 by Barry Brook

Summer 2009 — 2010 hasn’t even begun in Australia, and yet we are already sweltering under another record heat wave — the third in two years.
http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/11/14/three-record-heatwaves-seaust/

[Oliver]

It isn't an article from the "scientific press", but it's quite impressive nonetheless:

Stagnating Temperatures
Spiegel: Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html)

Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through ocean currents... By Gerald Traufetter more... (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html)

[Geckko]

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5953/716


Evaluating multicomponent climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone, and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. We calculated atmospheric composition changes, historical radiative forcing, and forcing per unit of emission due to aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions in a coupled composition-climate model. We found that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions. In particular, methane emissions have a larger impact than that used in current carbon-trading schemes or in the Kyoto Protocol. Thus, assessments of multigas mitigation policies, as well as any separate efforts to mitigate warming from short-lived pollutants, should include gas-aerosol interactions.

This found methane to be twice as large a forcing agent than assumed to date, or contained in the modelling results reported in AR4.

That means if these new findings were plugged straight into current climate models, they would revise up their modelled temperature trends over the past.

To "square the circle" again (i.e. bring the models back to track the past historical data again) some previously unidentified offsetting cooling influence is needed. One possibility:

A new or larger negative feedback exists, or a positive one needs to be revised down - e.g. via H2O/clouds etc.

[casebro]

Here's a graph, maybe somebody can link it into this thread:

<http://www.seed.slb.com/uploadedImages/Science/Earth_Science/Global_Climate_Change_and_Energy/Related_Articles/global_temp2.jpg>

Now, per the OP, picture the peaks the six degrees higher. It sort of make the two degree modern peak insignificant.

Does it disprove global warming? No.

Does it disprove ANTHROPOGENIC global warming?

[macdoc]

Do you have trouble understanding the OP? :garfield:

Current science articles. :mgbanghead

ie

El Nino intensifies Latin America drought

November 20th, 2009 in Space & Earth / Earth Sciences

Some 6,000 families were affected by the drought in the Chaco region of Paraguay, particularly indigenous populations

Cracked soil and dead cows are pictured at a ranch in Chaco, Paraguay on November 18. From a devastating food crisis in Guatemala to water cuts in Venezuela, El Nino has compounded drought damage across Latin America this year.

From a devastating food crisis in Guatemala to water cuts in Venezuela, El Nino has compounded drought damage across Latin America this year.

continues
http://www.physorg.com/print177921078.html

[macdoc]

Gekko be a bit careful as methane is not cumulative.
The gain was from 25 x to 33 times C02 impact due to a mix with aerosols....so more like a 25% increase in methane's impact for a short duration.

What it does open up is the idea that mitigating methane may have more immediate real world impact on the temps in the short term and so should be looked at closely as part of a AGHG mitigation strategy.

Luckily methane drops out of play early compared to C02 which is cumulative effectively forever.

So methane increases a bad short term multiplier as they are partly due to feedback in the north but if we can offset that with some reduction of methane in agriculture ( eat kangaroo ) and industrial processes then the impact is lessened.

It in no way softens the need to get to carbon neutral right quick.

[macdoc]

Oliver - that's likely in Ben's zone of acceptance tho the title is a bit of a spin.

The headache with that is it focuses on atmospheric temps which are transient compared to the changes in the total ocean heat content and the cryosphere both of which are much more massive energy sinks due to latent heat and density.

To give you a scale ...over the last 3 years Greenland's net mass loss of ice has doubled....the thermal energy to do that is approximately equivalent of our carpet bombing the the place with 8,000 Hiroshima sized nukes.....a day.:boggled:

2 million nukes a year in thermal equivalent, and that's just for Greenland...the same thermal equation applies elsewhere where long term glaciers melt.
It's enormous energy and fortunately the ocean and cryosphere buffer us from the worst of the gain.

Decadal and multi decadal oscillations of warm and cool pools in the oceans do affect air temps but are only natural variations overlaid on the steady energy gain GHG forces.

[lomiller]

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/326/5953/716




This found methane to be twice as large a forcing agent than assumed to date, or contained in the modelling results reported in AR4.




I believe a DOH! Is in order on your part…

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/its-all-about-me-thane/

[macdoc]

Greenland ice loss behind a sixth of sea-level rise

* 21 November 2009

GREENLAND lost 1500 cubic kilometres of ice between 2000 and 2008, making it responsible for one-sixth of global sea-level rise. Even worse, there are signs that the rate of ice loss is increasing.

.

continues
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20427354.100-greenland-ice-loss-behind-a-sixth-of-sealevel-rise.html

[Geckko]

I believe a DOH! Is in order on your part…

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/11/its-all-about-me-thane/

Yes indeed. My bad.


See how that works guys. ;)

[macdoc]

:thumbsup:

[bokonon]

Luckily methane drops out of play early compared to C02 which is cumulative effectively forever.
Demonstrably false. CO2 levels rise and fall annually, as plants use it to make sugars in the warm months and stop doing so when temperatures cool. Larger cycles can be observed over geological time. A period of global glaciation 600 to 800 million years ago seems to have scrubbed CO2 from the air and replaced it with high levels of oxygen. It may be that this happened because the glaciers scraped minerals off of the earth's surface and into the oceans, causing vast algae blooms, and dumping lots of dust and dirt into the ocean to which the algae could become attached and sink to the bottom. Could fertilizing and seeding the oceans be an anthropogenic strategy for scouring the atmosphere again, if that should prove to be necessary?

[macdoc]

You have an article to contribute? No - then go away. - you have no idea what you are talking about
If you say I'm wrong then prove it and overturn this or edit it out.....

The annual carbon cycle is meaningless in this context it's neutral.
Methane is shortlived in the context of GHG impact within the time frame of AGW - quit trying to pretend knowledge you've demonstrated once more you don't have.

Duration/Residence Time in the Atmosphere refers to the time a GHG stays in the atmosphere. Some GHGs are short-lived while others remain in the atmosphere for hundreds or thousands of years. To properly asses the climate impacts of a combination of gases, the lifetime of each gas has to be taken into account. For example, the warming impacts of CO2 persist for hundreds of years, whereas the warming impacts of ozone or contrails last only days or months.http://www.co2offsetresearch.org/aviation/RF.html

Methane duration stay is 12 +/- 3 years and a GWP of 22 (meaning that it has 22 times ... and other greenhouse gases into the earth's atmosphere each year. ...
http://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Greenhouse_gases/
Now upgraded to a 33 x GWP

Carbon is forever

Carbon dioxide emissions and their associated warming could linger for millennia, according to some climate scientists. Mason Inman looks at why the fallout from burning fossil fuels could last far longer than expected.
http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html

Gekko has the grace to admit an error.....you just blunder....:mgbanghead

[bokonon]

http://www.physorg.com/news177772960.html

On one hand this is bad because a natural sink is disappearing, and this will accelerate warming. On the other hand this means acidification will not be as great as feared and this will have a less negative effect on ocean biological damage.
The article at your link says the oceans absorbed more CO2 than ever last year - 2.3 billion tons. The "decrease" is only a decrease as a proportion of total CO2 emissions. It doesn't suggest that the ocean is reaching a saturation point and will cease to function as a natural sink, just that it didn't match emissions pound for pound.

[bokonon]

If you say I'm wrong then he prove it and overturn this or edit it out.....
What?

[macdoc]

If you say I'm wrong then prove it and overturn the information I supplied with references or edit your nonsense out of the thread....
:popcorn1

[macdoc]

From Ben's article
Now, the first year-by-year accounting of this mechanism during the industrial era suggests the oceans are struggling to keep up with rising emissions -- a finding with potentially wide implications for future climate.

do you need everything spelled out for you??....
Now do you have

a) a current science article to contribute

b) any contribution that is scientifically accurate to add to the existing articles ??

:garfield:

[macdoc]

Nature Reports Climate Change
Published online: 19 November 2009 | doi:10.1038/climate.2009.120

The war against warming
Military and intelligence experts become increasingly focused on the "climate security" threat. Keith Kloor reports.

PA
Shortly before Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti came to Washington DC on 29 October to discuss the links between climate change and geopolitical instability, the stage was being set on both sides of the Atlantic.

In September, Morisetti was appointed as the United Kingdom's newly minted climate and energy security envoy. Later in the same month, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) announced it was opening a special centre on climate change, which would assess "the national security impact of phenomena such as desertification, rising sea levels, population shifts and heightened competition for natural resources". In October, the UK government then unveiled a glossy, colour-coded map detailing how global warming could lead to water and food shortages, extended drought, mass migration and violent conflicts, if action to curtail greenhouse gases wasn't taken at the upcoming Copenhagen summit.continues
http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0912/full/climate.2009.120.html

[bokonon]

No, it shows the sensitivity to CO2.
Maybe. What would have caused the CO2 levels to rise enough to cause a 6-degree temperature increase at a time when no one was burning fossil fuels? Isn't it true that the data suggests that rising CO2 levels during interglacials follow rising temperatures rather than leading them? Maybe it shows the sensitivity to some factor no one has considered yet, which drives both temperature increase and (later) CO2 increase as well. I'm not saying the rise in CO2 wouldn't have its own contribution to rising temperatures, but the fact that temperatures naturally rise during interglacial periods when there are no man-made greenhouse gases being produced makes me cautious about saying any rise we're currently observing must be primarily due to man-made greenhouse gases.

We will get a rise equivalent to the last interglacial and ADD TO THAT fossil CO2. We can expect more extreme results. Past variability due to natural cycles is what we need to explore to understand the ramifications of an un-natural modification to atmospheric gasses.Again, maybe. Unless we know what caused the rise during the last interglacial, it's speculation to say that the same factors are at work today in the same measure. It could be less, it could be more.

Jumping immediately to pre-fab conclusions has a kind of God-of-the-gaps quality to it. If we don't understand it, it's okay to work toward increasing our understanding. I don't think we're justified in assuming "CO2 did it."

[bokonon]

You have an article to contribute? No - then go away. - you have no idea what you are talking about
I really don't care for your tone. If you can demonstrate that you're capable of having a civil conversation, maybe we can have one. If not, I won't be baited, your sputtering cartoon comments will simply be ignored.

http://www.knowledgerush.com/kr/encyclopedia/Greenhouse_gases/
Now upgraded to a 33 x GWP
Knowledgerush encyclopedia has been upgraded to a 33 x GWP? Wow, I'll bet that will really improve their response time.

http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0812/full/climate.2008.122.html
Ah, I think I see the source of our misunderstanding. Your Nature article says "For practical purposes, 500 to 1000 years is 'forever'". I was using the term "forever" to mean something a bit longer than that.

The science behind my 600 MYA scenario can be found here (http://www.pnas.org/content/105/9/3197.full.pdf+html).

[Pixel42]

Isn't it true that the data suggests that rising CO2 levels during interglacials follow rising temperatures rather than leading them?
Indeed it is. A fact known to every climatologist, and anyone who has bothered to educate themselves on the subject.

Maybe it shows the sensitivity to some factor no one has considered yet, which drives both temperature increase and (later) CO2 increase as well.
Or maybe it's due to the factor that the climatologists have considered and say it is due to. Namely that carbon dioxide is soluble in water, but more soluble in cold water than warm water. So as the world warms or cools as a result of any external forcing (e.g. the Milankovitch cycles that drive the ice ages) the oceans start to warm/cool until eventually they start to release/absorb CO2, starting a positive feedback that amplifies the warming/cooling.

[bokonon]

carbon dioxide is soluble in water, but more soluble in cold water than warm water. So as the world warms or cools as a result of any external forcing (e.g. the Milankovitch cycles that drive the ice ages) the oceans start to warm/cool until eventually they start to release/absorb CO2, starting a positive feedback that amplifies the warming/cooling.
Makes sense. Do they also have an explanation for the "spiking" mentioned in the article?

[Pixel42]

Makes sense. Do they also have an explanation for the "spiking" mentioned in the article?
I don't know. I know the oceanic CO2 positive feedback is invoked to explain the amplitude of changes in temperature that take place over tens of thousands of years, but shorter scale variations probably pose different, thornier, questions. I imagine that volcanism might explain some of them, but that's just a guess.

[BenBurch]

The article at your link says the oceans absorbed more CO2 than ever last year - 2.3 billion tons. The "decrease" is only a decrease as a proportion of total CO2 emissions. It doesn't suggest that the ocean is reaching a saturation point and will cease to function as a natural sink, just that it didn't match emissions pound for pound.

No, that the rate at which it does not match it has been declining.

[macdoc]

Ocean Less Effective At Absorbing Carbon Dioxide Emitted By Human Activity

ScienceDaily (Feb. 23, 2009) — In the Southern Indian Ocean, climate change is leading to stronger winds, which mix waters, bringing CO2 up from the ocean depths to the surface. This is the conclusion of researchers who have studied the latest field measurements carried out by CNRS's INSU, IPEV and IPSL. As a result, the Southern Ocean can no longer absorb as much atmospheric CO2 as before. Its role as a 'carbon sink' has been weakened, and it may now be ten times less efficient than previously estimated. The same trend can be observed at high latitudes in the North Atlantic.

continues
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090216092937.htm

[bokonon]

No, that the rate at which it does not match it has been declining.
According to the article, the percentage of of total carbon absorbed by the ocean is declining because the total is expanding. The amount of carbon which the ocean absorbs is still increasing, according to their calculations. There is no inflection point in the graph accompanying the paper; the ocean carbon sink line still seems to be showing an increase in the rate at which the ocean is absorbing carbon, not merely an increase in the amount absorbed (the line is exponential rather than linear). The problem they allege is that the rate at which carbon is being emitted is increasing even faster -- it's also exponential, but with a bigger exponent.

It's interesting that they're calculating the amount rather than measuring it. They're not even measuring the amount of CO2 in the ocean year over year, they're running a model based on assumptions about "seawater temperatures, salinity, man-made chlorofluorocarbons and other measures" and plotting it back to the 1800s. I guess it's safe to assume that man-made chlorofluorocarbons were zero then, but is there really data for Antarctic seawater temperatures, salinity, and "other measures" going that far back?

The authors also claim that the land is now absorbing more carbon than it is giving off -- 1.1 billion tons a year more, according to the article. From the graph, it looks like the inflection point there came between 1925 and 1950. They speculate that it's because increased atmospheric CO2 is good for growing plants, and helps them grow larger, locking more CO2 in biomass. They then seem to ignore this data point and go on to say that natural mechanisms can't be depended on to mitigate increased human emissions.

[BenBurch]

Meanwhile, in Antarctica;

http://pda.physorg.com/billiontonnes-iceloss-sealevels_news178122015.html

The East Antarctic icesheet, once seen as largely unaffected by global warming, has lost billions of tonnes of ice since 2006 and could boost sea levels in the future, according to a new study.

<SNIP>

They also found for the first time that East Antarctica -- on the Eastern Hemisphere side of the continent -- is likewise losing mass, mostly in coastal regions, at a rate of about 57 billion tonnes annually.

<SNIP>

Up to now, scientists had thought that East Antarctica was in "balance," meaning that it accumulated as much mass and it gave off, perhaps a bit more.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

...
They then seem to ignore this data point and go on to say that natural mechanisms can't be depended on to mitigate increased human emissions.

We have greenhouse data that show the effect peters out pretty fast; Plants cannot take up unlimited additional CO2.

[shadron]

It isn't the "science press", but perhaps it is relevant: the Congressional Research Report on the "Status of the Copenhagen Climate Change Negotiations" dated Nov 5.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40910.pdf

[lomiller]

Indeed it is. A fact known to every climatologist, and anyone who has bothered to educate themselves on the subject.



For the simple reason that CO2 isn't belived to be the *initial* cause of the warming. The initial warming that cases the release of CO2 is small in comparison to the warming the CO2 causes. This has been explained to him in detail, but he simply ignores the things he doesn't wish to hear.

[bokonon]

For the simple reason that CO2 isn't belived to be the *initial* cause of the warming. The initial warming that cases the release of CO2 is small in comparison to the warming the CO2 causes. This has been explained to him in detail, but he simply ignores the things he doesn't wish to hear.
I think you have me confused with someone else, but my memory may have failed me. Feel free to point out where this has been explained to me in detail.

I think it might be useful to have a discussion of Milankovitch cycles in a separate thread; if my search doesn't reveal one, perhaps I'll start one.

[Pixel42]

Feel free to point out where this has been explained to me in detail
A detailed explanation of why the CO2 rise lags, rather than leads, temperature in past natural warmings has been given many times in these threads; I've given it several times myself. Of course there are a lot of AGW threads, so it's possible you missed it every time. A quick search for Milankovitch found dozens of threads, too many to easily find my own posts giving the explanation, though I did spot this:

http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=5258565#post5258565

[BenBurch]

Please lets take the lag/lead argument to its own thread. Thanks!

[BenBurch]

OK, this is only indirectly about the climate;

http://pda.physorg.com/carbondioxide-ironoxide-oxygenmolecules_news178203219.html

A means of turning CO2 into CO and then into fuel. Not the first; You can do it with a pulsed RF discharge, but this uses solar heating so does not require additional power generation to make it work. Efficiency is terrible, and the 15-20 years to deployment means that the train will have left the station.

[BenBurch]

http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-11-24-climate-change-quickening-say-scientists

Global warming is happening faster than expected and at worst could raise sea levels by up to 2m by 2100, a group of scientists said on Tuesday in a warning to next month's United Nations climate summit in Copenhagen.

In what they called a "Copenhagen Diagnosis", updating findings in a broader 2007 UN climate report, 26 experts urged action to cap rising world greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 or 2020 to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

"Climate change is accelerating beyond expectations," a joint statement said, pointing to factors including a retreat of Arctic sea ice in summer and melting of ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/emissions-woodshole-carbon_news178308523.html

The annual rate of increase in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels has more than tripled in this decade, compared to the 1990s, reports an international consortium of scientists, who paint a bleak picture of the Earth's future unless "CO2 emissions [are] drastically reduced."

These CO2 emissions increased at a rate of 3.4% per year from 2000 to 2008, in contrast to 1% each year in the previous decade, scientists from the Global Carbon Project report in the current issue of Nature Geoscience. The team comprises some 30 researchers from around the world, including Scott C. Doney, senior scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) and Richard A. Houghton, senior scientist and acting director of the Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC).

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091115134132.htm


ScienceDaily (Nov. 25, 2009) — Rising water temperatures are kicking up more powerful winds on Lake Superior, with consequences for currents, biological cycles, pollution and more on the world's largest freshwater lake* and its smaller brethren.

Since 1985, surface water temperatures measured by lake buoys have climbed 1.2 degrees per decade, about 15 percent faster than the air above the lake and twice as fast as warming over nearby land.

"The lake's thermal budget is very sensitive to the amount of ice cover over the winter," says Ankur Desai, atmospheric and oceanic sciences professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "There is less ice on Lake Superior during the winter, and consequently the water absorbs more heat."

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/climatechange-health-climate_news178370528.html


Tackling climate change by reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse emissions will have major direct health benefits in addition to reducing the risk of climate change, especially in low-income countries, according to a series of six papers appearing today (Wed., Nov. 25) in the British journal The Lancet.

Two University of California, Berkeley, authors of the papers - Kirk R. Smith, professor of global environmental health, and Michael Jerrett, associate professor of environmental health sciences - will discuss the results today at a press conference in Washington, D.C.

<SNIP>

[macdoc]

Climate 'diagnosis' is stark message for politicians

* 13:07 25 November 2009 by Jessica Hamzelou

It may sound like a thriller, but The Copenhagen Diagnosis is not an enjoyable read. It's a stark update on the state of our environment in time for next month's summit on climate change in the Danish capital.

In the report, an international team of climate scientists warns policy-makers that levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are at the extreme end of predictions made only in 2007, and that natural CO2 sinks such as oceans are becoming saturated.

Also, sea level rise is almost 80 per cent higher than some predictions, says co-author Tim Lenton at the University of East Anglia in Norwich, UK.

The team stresses that even a little warming could cause irreversible melting of ice sheets and turn dense Amazon forests into dry savannah grassland. "We may be heading towards these climate 'tipping points' earlier than we thought," Lenton says. The report calls for drastic action, including cutting CO2 emissions to almost zero by 2100 to prevent catastrophic climate change.The full report is here

http://www.copenhagendiagnosis.org/default.html

The area of interest for me is the hydrology consequences of both glacier loss at mid latitudes and the increased rain and snow implications for areas like the midwest.

Gonna keep flood engineers and dam designers busy for a good while.... http://forum.richarddawkins.net/images/smilies/goodmorning.gif

Report summary

Quote:
The most significant recent climate change findings are:

Surging greenhouse gas emissions: Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 2008 were nearly 40% higher than those in 1990. Even if global emission rates are stabilized at present –day levels, just 20 more years of emissions would give a 25% probability that warming exceeds 2oC. Even with zero emissions after 2030. Every year of delayed action increase the chances of exceeding 2oC warming.

Recent global temperatures demonstrate human-based warming: Over the past 25 years temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.190C per decade, in every good agreement with predictions based on greenhouse gas increases. Even over the past ten years, despite a decrease in solar forcing, the trend continues to be one of warming. Natural, short- term fluctuations are occurring as usual but there have been no significant changes in the underlying warming trend.

Acceleration of melting of ice-sheets, glaciers and ice-caps: A wide array of satellite and ice measurements now demonstrate beyond doubt that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass at an increasing rate. Melting of glaciers and ice-caps in other parts of the world has also accelerated since 1990.

Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline: Summer-time melting of Arctic sea-ice has accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models. This area of sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average prediction from IPCC AR4 climate models.

Current sea-level rise underestimates: Satellites show great global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be 80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets.

Sea-level prediction revised: By 2100, global sea-level is likely to rise at least twice as much as projected by Working Group 1 of the IPCC AR4, for unmitigated emissions it may well exceed 1 meter. The upper limit has been estimated as – 2 meters sea-level rise by 2100. Sea-level will continue to rise for centuries after global temperature have been stabilized and several meters of sea level rise must be expected over the next few centuries.

Delay in action risks irreversible damage: Several vulnerable elements in the climate system (e.g. continental ice-sheets. Amazon rainforest, West African monsoon and others) could be pushed towards abrupt or irreversible change if warming continues in a business-as-usual way throughout this century. The risk of transgressing critical thresholds (“tipping points”) increase strongly with ongoing climate change. Thus waiting for higher levels of scientific certainty could mean that some tipping points will be crossed before they are recognized.

The turning point must come soon: If global warming is to be limited to a maximum of 2oC above pre-industrial values, global emissions need to peak between 2015 and 2020 and then decline rapidly. To stabilize climate, a decarbonized global society – with near-zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases – need to be reached well within this century. More specifically, the average annual per-capita emissions will have to shrink to well under 1 metric ton CO2 by 2050. This is 80-90% below the per-capita emissions in developed nations in 2000.Perhaps we should accuse the IPCC of consistently understating change and leaving out data......seems one Saudi Arabia and others had some influence in doing just that in last IPCC report.

as seen here

http://portal.campaigncc.org/node/1819

IPCC Lead Authors - Latest Report Watered Down W/O Scientific ... (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x92211)

IPCC Lead Authors - Latest Report Watered Down W/O Scientific Evidence By Handful Of ... "It's not at all controversial, but Saudi Arabia, China and Russia .http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x92211 :garfield:

[lomiller]

This doesn’t look good…

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091125230727.htm

even the highest estimates for sea level rise have assumed there won’t be any significant melting in east Antarctica any time soon. This may not be the case.

[macdoc]

Yeah I caught that.....another denier talking point melts away...

•••

Intensive Land Management Leaves Europe Without Carbon Sinks

ScienceDaily (Nov. 27, 2009) — Of all global carbon dioxide emissions, less than half accumulate in the atmosphere where it contributes to global warming. The remainder is hidden away in oceans and terrestrial ecosystems such as forests, grasslands and peat-lands. Stimulating this "free service" of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems is considered one of the main, immediately available ways of reducing climate change. However, new greenhouse gas bookkeeping has revealed that for the European continent this service isn't free after all.

These findings were recently published in Nature Geoscience.
continues
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091123114636.htm

[Elf Grinder 3000]

What is the capacity for CO2 to "trap" solar radiation (or redirect it back to earth) as compared to Methane, water vapor etc...

Does anyone have a link to this?

[Ivor the Engineer]

What is the capacity for CO2 to "trap" solar radiation (or redirect it back to earth) as compared to Methane, water vapor etc...

Does anyone have a link to this?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

[macdoc]

What is the capacity for CO2 to "trap" solar radiation (or redirect it back to earth) as compared to Methane, water vapor etc...
You have to be very careful with "capacity" as you need to make that over time.

C02 is effectively ( from human standpoint ) forever so even if it's less potent than methane it persists. Water vapour is very potent but also has no persistence - it's a feedback from the effect of the other GHG gases and magnifies them

It's complex and info is still emerging
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/091029/full/news.2009.1049.html

a bit dated on the methane front ( it's now 33 x when combined with aerosols )
http://www.ehow.com/about_4762235_global-warming-amp-greenhouse-effects.html

Trying to find a paper on the persistence...I know I've seen it.

So the problem arises that while some of the other GHG are more potent they drop out relatively rapidly where as C02 we put in now will impact out to 100,000 years tho the major impact is in the first few hundred :rolleyes:

If we stopped cold all anthro GHG emissions the radiative imbalance we have started will continue for decades...at least another .6 degrees. :(

No easy task in Copenhagen.

[macdoc]

While Ben's away I'll sneak this in....:D

First China steps up now India and even dino Harper has to suffer a well deserved tongue lashing....you gotta know this was plotted out on Obama's trip last month.....show time folks.
The world moves one - deniers wail.


India's shift to cut back emissions raises hope for climate agreement

http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/00356/harperpaper_356921gm-a.jpg
UN leader chides Canada's inaction

Last updated on Friday, Nov. 27, 2009 10:59PM EST
Word that India will soon roll out emission reduction targets signals an emerging consensus toward a climate-change agreement next month at Copenhagen, despite the Canadian government's much-noticed ambivalence.

India, one of the last holdouts in the fight against global warming, will announce the move within the next few days, French President Nicolas Sarkozy revealed yesterday.continues
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/indias-shift-to-cut-back-emissions-raises-hope-for-climate-agreement/article1381167

[macdoc]

controversial indeed.... interesting angle of approach..

Is global warming unstoppable?
November 23rd, 2009 in Space & Earth / Environment

In a provocative new study, a University of Utah scientist argues that rising carbon dioxide emissions - the major cause of global warming - cannot be stabilized unless the world's economy collapses or society builds the equivalent of one new nuclear power plant each day.

"It looks unlikely that there will be any substantial near-term departure from recently observed acceleration in carbon dioxide emission rates," says the new paper by Tim Garrett, an associate professor of atmospheric sciences.

Source: University of Utah
continues
http://www.physorg.com/print178178343.html

[BenBurch]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5imQS-V-ibjVp3bpZy0uHoKQmcUWQD9C7QTAG0


<SNIP>
Global warming is melting the fringes of the frozen world where Greenland's Inuits have hunted seal, whale and polar bear for generations. It's thawing the permafrost on which their homes are built. It's disrupting Arctic wildlife and fish stocks, and making hunting trips more dangerous by thinning the ice that supports their dog sleds.

But all is not doom and gloom. The retreating ice could uncover potential oil and mineral resources which, if successfully tapped, could dramatically change the fortunes of this semiautonomous Danish territory of 57,000 people.
<SNIP>
Skeptics say Greenland's population is too small to govern a territory that is three times the size of Texas — even if it discovers untapped wealth. Also, the population is plagued by social problems including alcoholism, domestic violence, sexual abuse and suicides.
<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g1nyWR-LqJYGz-3_WyL805_RLq4w


PARIS — Whatever the outcome of the UN climate summit in Copenhagen, Nature may have some extremely nasty surprises up its sleeve, say scientists.

They say Earth's biosphere has numerous "tipping points" -- triggers that cause global warming and its impacts to lurch up a gear or two, rather than occur in a smooth, incremental way.

In other words, the planet itself would become the main driver of warming, making the crisis far more difficult to manage.
<SNIP>

[macdoc]

Yeah once the feedback exceeds the original driver...likely already in play in the north all we are doing is tossing more twigs on the bonfire we lit off....

The Arctic for sure is seeing a new climate regime - hopefully it's the albedo mainly that is the main feedback and not methane release.....

[macdoc]

Even the already hot places are cooking....

Climate Change in Kuwait Bay: Higher Temperatures Having Profound Effects

ScienceDaily (Nov. 30, 2009) — Since 1985, seawater temperature in Kuwait Bay, northern Arabian Gulf, has increased on average 0.6°C per decade. This is about three times faster than the global average rate reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Differences are due to regional and local effects. Increased temperatures are having profound effects on key habitats and on power generation the Arabian Gulf.
continues
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091130121449.htm

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/northernhemisphere-freeze-ice_news178804829.html


<SNIP>
William Patterson, from the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, and his colleagues have shown that switching off the North Atlantic circulation can force the Northern hemisphere into a mini 'ice age' in a matter of months. Previous work has indicated that this process would take tens of years.

Around 12,800 years ago the northern hemisphere was hit by a mini ice-age, known by scientists as the Younger Dryas, and nicknamed the 'Big Freeze', which lasted around 1300 years. Geological evidence shows that the Big Freeze was brought about by a sudden influx of freshwater, when the glacial Lake Agassiz in North America burst its banks and poured into the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. This vast pulse, a greater volume than all of North America's Great Lakes combined, diluted the North Atlantic conveyor belt and brought it to a halt.

<SNIP>

Looking ahead to the future Patterson says there is no reason why a 'Big Freeze' shouldn't happen again. "If the Greenland ice sheet melted suddenly it would be catastrophic," he says.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/carbon-peat-carbondioxide_news178803752.html


Peatlands, especially those in tropical regions, sequester gigantic amounts of organic carbon. Human activities are now having a considerable impact on these wetlands. For example, drainage projects, in combination with the effects of periodic droughts, can lead to large-scale fires, which release enormous amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere, and thus contribute to global warming.

Using laser-based measurements, Professor Florian Siegert and his research group at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität (LMU, Germany) in Munich have now estimated the volume of peat burned in such fires with unprecedented accuracy. The new data imply that, in 2006, peatland fires in Indonesia released up to about 900 million metric tons of CO2. This is more than the total amount of CO2 emitted in Germany in that year, and represents about 16 % of the emissions associated with deforestation worldwide. "Our work once again underlines the decisive role played by acutely endangered tropical wetland ecosystems in the context of global warming", says Siegert. "The study also provides important data for the upcoming World Climate Conference in Copenhagen. One of the goals of that meeting is to reach agreement on how financial and other incentives can be employed for the protection of tropical wetlands, and so help preserve their enormous capacity for carbon storage.

<SNIP>

Most studies on changes in land use and their effects on climate change have considered only total forest biomass. The new data demonstrate that, in future, one must also focus on the biomass that is stored in the soil. The carbon content of peat swamps is dependent on the thickness of the peat layer, and can be up to 20 times greater than the amount stored in forest trees. Siegert points out that "growth of the market for palm oil, stimulated by increased demand for cheap biofuels, will make the situation worse, as the incidence of fires this year has already shown. This is something that should have repercussions for European policies in the area of renewable energy sources. Also on the agenda in Copenhagen are programmes such as REDD (for Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in developing countries'), which is designed to provide monetary incentives aimed at protecting tropical peat swamp forests and their giant carbon stores".

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/antarctic-ice-seaice_news178867843.html


The first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica's climate and its relationship to the global climate system is published this week by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR). The review - Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment - presents the latest research from the icy continent, identifies areas for future scientific research, and addresses the urgent questions that policy makers have about Antarctic melting, sea-level rise and biodiversity.

Based on the latest evidence from 100 world-leading scientists from 13 countries, the review focuses on the impact and consequences of rapid warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and the Southern Ocean; rapid ice loss in parts of Antarctica and the increase in sea ice around the continent; the impact of climate change on Antarctica's plants and animals; the unprecedented increase in carbon dioxide levels; the connections between human-induced global change and natural variability; and the extraordinary finding that the ozone hole has shielded most of Antarctica from global warming.

<SNIP>

[macdoc]

Outlines the urgency and scale of the issues at Copenhagen..

Countdown to Copenhagen (http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2009/12/countdown_to_copenhagen_13.html)

Keith Kloor
It seems like yesterday when everyone was downplaying expectations for success at next week’s climate summit in Copenhagen. Not anymore. Nicholas Stern writes in the Guardian (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/30/stern-monbiot-copenhagen-deal):


“Given what is at stake, essentially the future peace and prosperity of the planet, world leaders must now recognise that Copenhagen is the most important international gathering of our time. A strong political agreement can and must be reached in Copenhagen. There can be no excuses for failure.” Although a legally binding treaty has been taken off the table, Bill McKibben over at Yale Environment 360 (http://e360.yale.edu/content/feature.msp?id=2215) takes stock of the thorny issues that still need to be resolved to reach any such political agreement. Among them:
“How do you draw something up that doesn’t require treaty approval by the U.S. Senate (no one thinks there are 67 votes for a real climate policy)? How do you give credit for actions already taken? How do you keep carbon trading from turning into one more Wall Street boondoggle?” James Hansen, for his part, continues to insist that cap and trade is an “inefficient compromise” and that governments going to Copenhagen are “lying through their teeth” if they say otherwise. In Grist, Hansen writes (http://www.grist.org/article/2009-11-30-never-give-up-fighting-spirit-lessons-from-a-grandchild)that climate negotiators need to solve one main equation:
“Unless they order Russia to leave its gas in the ground and Saudi Arabia to leave its oil in the ground (which nobody has proposed), they must phase out coal and prohibit unconventional fossil fuels.” Over on Scientific American, physicist Myles Allen of the University of Oxford, concurs (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=avoiding-dangers-of-climate-change):
"Any credible plan for avoiding dangerous climate change will have to address the question of what India, China, Russia and the U.S. are going to do with the coal they have underground that we cannot afford for them to release into the atmosphere. If they are not going to use that coal, ever, then who is going to compensate them for the benefits lost? And if they are going to use it, then who is going to pay for its carbon content to be sequestered?” Continue reading "Countdown to Copenhagen " » (http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2009/12/countdown_to_copenhagen_13.html#more)


http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/

[BenBurch]

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2009/12/01/Reporters-document-Antarctica-changes/UPI-52701259678044/


WOODS HOLE, Mass., Dec. 1 (UPI) -- Three journalists are at the Palmer Research Station in Antarctica this week to document signs of climate change.

<SNIP>

"The Antarctic Peninsula is warming faster than anywhere else on Earth," Neill said. "Average temperature has warmed 6 degrees Fahrenheit since 1950. Winter temperature has warmed even more, a shocking 11 degrees Fahrenheit. The amount of sea ice along the western Antarctic Peninsula has declined 40 percent and ice cover is 80 days shorter, compared with 25 years ago.

"The rapid loss of ice at the ends of the world will very well be the story of the century," Neill added. "If the Earth loses too much ice, we tumble headlong into uncharted territory."

<SNIP>

[Wangler]

Kuwait Bay sea temperature rising quickly: (http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2009/12/01/Kuwait-Bay-sea-temperature-rising-quickly/UPI-73661259698720/)

British scientists say the water temperature of Kuwait Bay in the northern Arabian Gulf has increased three times faster than the global average since 1985.

...

The researchers estimate about a third of the observed increase in Kuwait Bay's water temperature can be attributed to global climate change, approximately 13 percent to human activity along the coast, with the remainder apparently due to changes in regional drivers, including circulation and mixing of seawater in the Arabian Gulf and sand storms.

I wonder if the changes in regional drivers are entirely due to natural causes? If so, these localized regional drivers exceed the expected warming from global climate, and localized man-made activity along the coast.

[BenBurch]

Kuwait Bay sea temperature rising quickly: (http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2009/12/01/Kuwait-Bay-sea-temperature-rising-quickly/UPI-73661259698720/)



I wonder if the changes in regional drivers are entirely due to natural causes? If so, these localized regional drivers exceed the expected warming from global climate, and localized man-made activity along the coast.

I think we will find a tangle of reasons.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/fieldmuseum-massextinction-extinction_news179001673.html


A new fossil species suggests that some land animals may have survived the end-Permian extinction by living in cooler climates in Antarctica.
Researchers have identified a distant relative of mammals that apparently survived the mass extinction by living in Antarctica.

<SNIP>

The largest known mass extinction in Earth's history, about 252 million years ago at the end of the Permian Period, may have been caused by global warming. A new fossil species suggests that some land animals may have survived the end-Permian extinction by living in cooler climates in Antarctica. Jörg Fröbisch and Kenneth D. Angielczyk of The Field Museum together with Christian A. Sidor from the University of Washington have identified a distant relative of mammals, Kombuisia antarctica, that apparently survived the mass extinction by living in Antarctica.

<SNIP>

Scientists are still debating what caused the end-Permian extinction, but it was likely associated with massive volcanic activity in Siberia that could have triggered global warming. When it served as refuge, Antarctica was located some distance north of its present location, was warmer and wasn't covered with permanent glaciers, said the researchers. The refuge of Kombuisia in Antarctica probably wasn't the result of a seasonal migration but rather a longer-term change that saw the animal's habitat shift southward. Fossil evidence suggests that small and medium sized animals were more successful at surviving the mass extinction than larger animals. They may have engaged in "sleep-or-hide" behaviors like hibernation, torpor and burrowing to survive in a difficult environment.

<SNIP>

[Zeuzzz]

Random question: How much does CO2 actually factor in to global temparature? Because there seems to be an awful lot of focus on this and not so much on other greenhouse gasses.

[BenBurch]

Random question: How much does CO2 actually factor in to global temparature? Because there seems to be an awful lot of focus on this and not so much on other greenhouse gasses.

Its the one gas that does not leave the atmosphere quickly (barring a few industrial chemicals that are present in small amounts) and it drives the rest like water vapor and methane by keeping heat in the system.

But this topic is for news, please create another to discuss this question if you want to proceed with it, OK?

[Zeuzzz]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wales/8381744.stm
£4m climate change study launched


Waves batter the harbour wall on November 22, 2009 in Porthcawl, Wales
The work of C3W will include looking at sea level change

A five-year programme to study the impact of climate change in Wales on land, sea and atmosphere is under way.

Nearly 200 experts at Cardiff Aberystwyth, Bangor, and Swansea universities will be members of the £4m Climate Change Consortium or C3W.

The consortium will examine the effects of climate change on the planet's ice and glaciers.

It will also look at the social effects of climate change and how to engage the public with the issue.

Aberystwyth University's Professor Mike Hambrey, an expert in glaciers and the acting director of C3W, said the group was made up of climate and social scientists with shared concerns.

He said: "We're all joined together because we have deep concerns about the issue of climate change and want to do something constructive about it."

They would be tackling four "grand challenges," he said.

[BenBurch]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2009/copenhagen/8386319.stm


<SNIP>

The layers of ice laid down each year in Antarctica and Greenland store a record of the Earth's climate. Bubbles of air trapped in the ice as it froze can be analysed to give details on temperature at the time it froze, and on atmospheric concentrations of gases.

The oldest ice core so far extracted belongs to the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (Epica). It allows scientists to look back 800,000 years.

<SNIP>

The data, for the animation above, on temperature and carbon dioxide for the 800,000 year time period is taken from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica, Epica. The data can be downloaded using the link on the right and was complied by Dr Robert Mulvaney of the British Antarctic Survey.

LINK: http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/news/nol/shared/spl/hi/uk/09/bbc_online/800000.xls

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/soil-winterwheat-carbon_news179058963.html

Agricultural Research Service (ARS) scientists are testing out alternative ways of tilling the soil and rotating crops to see if they can help wheat farmers in Oregon sequester more carbon in the soil and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Soil organic carbon plays a major role in how well a cultivated field holds moisture, provides nutrients and remains productive. That can be a problem in eastern Oregon because the soils are relatively low in organic carbon. Wheat farmers there traditionally plant winter wheat one year and leave the field fallow for a season, using traditional methods to plow before planting.

Hero Gollany, a soil scientist at the ARS Columbia Plateau Conservation Research Center in Pendleton, Ore., is looking at three scenarios that may help. In one field, she is comparing levels of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions released from the traditional 2-year rotation with an alternative 3-year cycle of no-till winter wheat, followed by a second crop of no-till winter wheat, followed by sorghum. She is measuring residue yields, soil conditions, and greenhouse gas emissions, taking measurements throughout the year. Because precipitation usually increases nitrous oxide emissions, she also collects data after any rain or snowfall.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/levels-rural-atmosphere_news179059890.html


Spanish researchers have measured CO2 levels for the past three years in the troposphere (lower atmosphere) over a sparsely inhabited rural area near Valladolid. The results, which are the first of their kind in the Iberian Peninsula, show that the levels rose "significantly" between 2002 and 2005.

Over recent years, physicists and meteorologists have been trying to find out about carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, and how these have evolved in the troposphere over various urban and rural areas around the planet. Now a scientific team from the University of Valladolid (UVA) has published the first - and to date the only - measurements for the Iberian Peninsula.

The study, published in the latest issue of the journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology and led by Mª Luisa Sánchez, a researcher from the UVA's Atmospheric Pollution Group, shows that CO2 levels increased by 8 ppm (parts per million) between 2002 and 2005. A broader study has led the researchers to predict "an annual increase of 3 ppm" in the study area.

<SNIP>

[lomiller]

This looks promising

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6TH1-4XJG5KY-3&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=56b56fc929eb0e36ed13f9567bbca539



A unique electricity generation process uses natural gas and solid oxide fuel cells at high electrical efficiency (74%HHV) and zero atmospheric emissions. The process contains a steam reformer heat-integrated with the fuel cells to provide the heat necessary for reforming. The fuel cells are powered with H2 and avoid carbon deposition issues. 100% CO2 capture is achieved downstream of the fuel cells with very little energy penalty using a multi-stage flash cascade process, where high-purity water is produced as a side product. Alternative reforming techniques such as CO2 reforming, autothermal reforming, and partial oxidation are considered. The capital and energy costs of the proposed process are considered to determine the levelized cost of electricity, which is low when compared to other similar carbon capture-enabled processes.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/carbondioxide-nitrogen-diversity_news179074615.html

Finally something at least slightly positive...


Rising levels of carbon dioxide may overheat the planet and cause other environmental problems, but fears that rising CO2 levels could directly reduce plant biodiversity can be allayed, according to a new study by a University of Minnesota scientist Peter Reich. In fact, rising CO2 may actually help counteract losses of diversity from another environmental villain: the global rain of nitrogen from fertilizers and exhaust fumes.

The study, published in this week's edition of Science magazine, involved a 10-year open-air outdoor experiment in which 48 plots planted with 16 different species of plants were tested using ambient and elevated levels of nitrogen and carbon dioxide. Researchers measured the number of species observed in each plot, the plant biomass both above and below ground, as well as factors related to soil, water and light that might affect plant growth.

Over time, the diversity of plants growing in the research plots changed significantly, depending on the combinations of plants and the way added CO2 and nitrogen affected the health of different species. One of the study's key findings is that while the combination of ambient carbon dioxide and nitrogen pollution reduces species richness by 16 percent, adding more CO2 to the mix reduces that change by half.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/treering-trees-tree_news179073024.html


<SNIP>

Scientists have long looked at the width of tree rings to estimate temperature levels of past years. Larger rings indicate more tree growth in a season, which translates into warmer summer temperatures. But the analysis of carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree rings can also provide accurate data on past climate events, say researchers working in northern Canada.

In a paper published in the most recent issue of the journal of Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research, Trevor Porter, a PhD student in Geography and Environmental Science at Carleton University, and three other authors compared temperature data collected in Inuvik, Northwest Territories (NT) since 1957 with their own analysis of isotopes found in white spruce trees in the Mackenzie Delta region of the NT. They found a strong correlation between the two data sets and temperatures.

"Isotope analysis is a good way to measure past climate change," says Porter about the results.

<SNIP>

[shadron]

I don't suppose that this is "scientific press", but I think it belongs here:

WWF, Allianze estimate what it could cost NOT to take action on climate change

A new report from the World Wildlife Fund and European insurance giant Allianz SE says that close to $1.4 trillion in “assets” could be at risk from a severe storm surge. Moreover, by mid-century, their joint study predicts that up to $7.4 trillion could be in jeopardy if the global sea level rises 20 inches.

http://www.smartplanet.com/business/blog/business-brains/wwf-allianze-estimate-what-it-could-cost-not-to-take-action-on-climate-change/3391/

[macdoc]

British bird's rapid evolution signals human impact

Warming of British Isles, along with feeding of the blackcap, has led to changes in the warbler's beak size and wing shape in just a few decades

Last updated on Thursday, Dec. 03, 2009 6:50PM EST

Feeding the birds is the most innocuous of pastimes, but it could have a unintended effect: changing the course of evolution.

Researchers have discovered that the enthusiasm of many Britons for feeding birds in winter and the gradual warming of the British Isles due to climate change have helped change the appearance of the blackcap, a warbler as commonly recognized in European gardens as robins are in North America.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/british-birds-rapid-evolution-signals-human-impact/article1387804/

[macdoc]

This is the kind of hands on field work I admire....good for him.....

snip

From The Times
December 5, 2009

Scientist’s Himalayan mission provides unwelcome proof: glaciers are dying

Jeremy Page, South Asia Correspondent

Inching over the treacherous surface of the Rathong glacier, almost 5,000 metres (16,400ft) high in the eastern Himalayas, Dr Shresth Tayal stooped to inspect a 7m steel rod he buried vertically in the ice six months ago.

After a decade studying Himalayan glaciers, he had expected to find at least half the rod exposed — an alarming enough indication of how fast the Rathong is melting — but even he was surprised by what he found last week.

“Six metres in six months,” he cried, breathing hard in the thin mountain air as The Times and the rest of his team stepped gingerly between hidden crevasses and gushing rivulets of freshly melted ice.

“It’s pathetic,” he said. “The glacier is dying.”

more

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/copenhagen/article6945249.ece#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=3392178

[BenBurch]

The energy required to melt all that ice is staggering.

[Wangler]

Here is an interesting one about carbon uptake in the oceans:

Reconstruction of the history of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations in the ocean (http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N48/C1.php)

They say that carbon uptake has been increasing in a pattern that matches the increase in atmospheric CO2.

Obviously, the amount of uptake is much less than the increases in atmospheric increase, otherwise the CO2 ppm plot would eventually level out.

I think their point, though, is to demonstrate that oceanic uptake of CO2 has not reached a plateau yet.

[Wangler]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/technology/science/british-birds-rapid-evolution-signals-human-impact/article1387804/

Glad were helping! From the link:

"If winters had been colder and bird feeders didn't exist, these wayward birds would have soon died due to starvation and inhospitable weather, but they thrived and now amount to about 10 per cent of the blackcap population."

You are welcome, little birdies!

[OMGturt1es]

Here is an interesting one about carbon uptake in the oceans:

Reconstruction of the history of anthropogenic CO2 concentrations in the ocean (http://www.co2science.org/articles/V12/N48/C1.php)

They say that carbon uptake has been increasing in a pattern that matches the increase in atmospheric CO2.

Obviously, the amount of uptake is much less than the increases in atmospheric increase, otherwise the CO2 ppm plot would eventually level out.

I think their point, though, is to demonstrate that oceanic uptake of CO2 has not reached a plateau yet.

And that's actually bad news. Oceanic acidification is not good. It's going to target a lot of critters. It has the potential to be very, very bad.

[BenBurch]

Try this at home; Got a small sea shell? Open a two liter bottle of soda water, and drop it in. Re-seal the bottle.

What do you see in two weeks?

[lomiller]

this one says current models underestimate CO2 sensitivity

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091206162955.htm

[macdoc]

Cat ....meet pidgeons.....wow that's some info release :boggled:

snip

Earth More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than Previously Thought



ScienceDaily (Dec. 6, 2009) — In the long term, the Earth's temperature may be 30-50% more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide than has previously been estimated, reports a new study published in Nature Geoscience.



Thanks for that :thumbsup:

[Wangler]

This page seems to have a number of links to current papers, thankfully with many full text:

The Copenhagen Diagnosis references (http://agwobserver.wordpress.com/2009/11/28/the-copenhagen-diagnosis-references/)

[Wangler]

I wish this one was full text:

Global warming uncertainties due to carbon cycle feedbacks exceed those
due to CO2 emissions (http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/EGU2009-4179.pdf)

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/warming-globalwarming-climatechange_news179159979.html


<SNIP>

Rising temperatures over decades have prompted scientific concern, and the last decade has been the hottest in thousands of years, according to climate records. However, the warming eased over North America last year, and groups seeking to deny climate change seized on that in an effort to challenge the idea of overall warming.

North America wasn't as warm as expected because of cooler water in the North Pacific - a condition called La Nina - but the rest of the world continued to warm, researchers said Friday. The overall warming trend is expected to continue worldwide.

La Nina caused cold air from the Arctic to move south into North America, temporarily overwhelming the warming influence from climate change in the region, said Judith Perlwitz of the University of Colorado, lead author of the report being published next week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

<SNIP>

[Wangler]

This one seems rather poignant:

"As activists organised by the group Stop Climate Chaos gather in London to demand action, one of Britain's top climate scientists says the language of chaos and catastrophe has got out of hand (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6115644.stm)."

[Orphia Nay]

"Why there's no sign of a climate conspiracy in hacked emails."

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18238-why-theres-no-sign-of-a-climate-conspiracy-in-hacked-emails.html

Just reading it now.

[Zeuzzz]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/6690110/Leaked-climate-change-emails-wont-bias-UN-global-warning-body-says-chairman.html

Leaked climate change emails 'won't bias UN global warning body' says chairman

The leaked emails from the University of East Anglia will not affect the UN's advice on global warning, said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the UN's climate change body.

Mr Pachauri said the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) received contributions from scientists worldwide and had a rigorous peer review system which ensured a balanced view.

"The processes in the IPCC are so robust, so inclusive, that even if an author or two has a particular bias it is completely unlikely that bias will find its way into the IPCC report," he told The Guardian.

His comments came after the apparent suggestion in the leaked emails that work on climate change which the scientists did not agree with was not included in the IPCC's fourth assessment report, published in 2007.

Mr Pachauri was asked about a 2004 email in which Professor Phil Jones, head of climatic research at UEA, is alleged to have commented on two papers which he considered to be flawed.

Prof Jones allegedly wrote: "I can't see either... being in the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report.

"Kevin [Trenberth] and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"

Thousands of emails and documents allegedly stolen from the UEA were posted online which indicated that researchers had massaged figures to mask the fact that world temperatures have been declining in recent years. [....]

[macdoc]

56 Papers in 45 Countries Publish Joint Editorial

By E&P Staff

Published: December 06, 2009 7:10 PM ET
NEW YORK Tomorrow 56 newspapers in 45 countries take the perhaps unprecedented step of speaking with one voice through a common editorial. Many if not most will publish it on the front page, warning of a "profound emergency."

The Guardian of London, which helped draft the editorial, published it today, with a note at the end. Here it is.
*

Unless we combine to take decisive action, climate change will ravage our planet, and with it our prosperity and security. The dangers have been becoming apparent for a generation. Now the facts have started to speak: 11 of the past 14 years have been the warmest on record, the Arctic ice-cap is melting and last year's inflamed oil and food prices provide a foretaste of future havoc. In scientific journals the question is no longer whether humans are to blame, but how little time we have got left to limit the damage. Yet so far the world's response has been feeble and half-hearted.

continues

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1004051277

[Wangler]

See post #88.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/climateconference-climate-emissions_news179479558.html


This decade is very likely to be the warmest since record keeping began in 1850, and 2009 could rank among the top-five warmest years, the U.N. weather agency reported Tuesday on the second day of a pivotal 192-nation climate conference.

<SNIP>

The decade 2000-2009 "is very likely to be the warmest on record, warmer than the 1990s, than the 1980s and so on," Jarraud said at a news conference, holding up a chart with a temperature curve pointing upward.

If 2009 ends as the fifth-warmest year, it would replace the year 2003. According to the U.S. space agency NASA, the other warmest years since 1850 have been 2005, 1998, 2007 and 2006. NASA says the differences in readings among these years are so small as to be statistically insignificant.

<SNIP>

[lomiller]

More bad news on sea level


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091207165252.htm


By the year 2100, global sea level could rise between 75 and 190 centimetres, according to a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[Trakar]

I wish this one was full text:

Global warming uncertainties due to carbon cycle feedbacks exceed those
due to CO2 emissions (http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2009/EGU2009-4179.pdf)

Well, after looking through it, and abouts the web abit, I can't link you to that paper, but I can get you to a few papers by one of the same lead authors, on similar considerations:

"Towards quantifying uncertainty in predictions of Amazon ‘dieback’" (http://ukpmc.ac.uk/articlerender.cgi?artid=1514427)

'A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles" (http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/365/1857/1993.full)

And a few more papers by different authors but discussing some similar considerations:

"Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change" (http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/08-2025.1)

"Effects of anthropogenic land cover change on the carbon cycle
of the last millennium" (http://www.cee.mtu.edu/~nurban/classes/ce5508/2009/Readings/Pongratz09_BGC_landuseGlobalC.pdf)

"Terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics and climate feedbacks" (http://courses.washington.edu/ocean450/Discussion_Topics_Papers/Heinmann_clim_chng_08.pdf)

"Probabilistic Forecast for 21st Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (without Policy) and Climate Parameters" (http://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/44627/MITJPSPGC_Rpt169.pdf?sequence=1)

[Trakar]

This one seems rather poignant:

"As activists organised by the group Stop Climate Chaos gather in London to demand action, one of Britain's top climate scientists says the language of chaos and catastrophe has got out of hand (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6115644.stm)."

This entire article is quoted, is it the consideration of Mike Hulme, or is it his article and quoting someone else?

Hulme is hardly an unbiased climate scientist without personal economic stake in his position, not that this in anyway disqualifies his considerations, but merely a note that this is a factor in his position. He is dragging his feet at the conservative end of the data and considerations. We'll see if his considerations evolve over the coming decades.

[macdoc]

Then again perhaps the ongoing "catastrophe has been poorly illuminated....

Exposure to Coal Lowers IQ in Newborns

by Susan Kraemer in Carbon/ GHG Reduction

When my friends across the border are astonished at the sheer stupidity that dominates American politics and national discourse – and exclaim “Is there something in the water over there?” they might be on to something. It turns out, there actually is something in the water over here affecting us. And in the air. It’s coal.

Physicians for Social Responsibility released a groundbreaking medical report, “Coal’s Assault on Human Health,” which takes a new look at the devastating impacts of coal on the national health.

Researchers estimate that every year another half million children are born in the U.S. with blood mercury levels high enough to reduce IQ scores and cause lifelong loss of intelligence.
continues
http://greenlivingideas.com/topics/money-and-finance/carbon-ghg-neutrality-and-reduction/coal-making-stupid

the original report from the physicians
http://www.psr.org/resources/coals-assault-on-human-health.html

[macdoc]

[quote]Published online: 19 November 2009 | doi:10.1038/climate.2009.121

Curbing emissions: cap and rate

Steffen Kallbekken, Nathan Rive, Glen P. Peters & Jan S. Fuglestvedt

Climate policy should aim to limit the rate of warming, as well as setting a cap on total allowable emissions.
/quote]

continues with analysis
http://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0912/full/climate.2009.121.html

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/grasslandvegetation-grassland-climatechange_news179651642.html


How do plant ecosystems react to rising concentrations of the greenhouse gas CO2 in the atmosphere over the long term? This fundamental question is becoming increasingly pressing in light of global climate change. Researchers from the Chair of Grassland Science at the Technische Universitaet Muenchen (TUM, Germany) have now - for the first time worldwide - taken up this issue for grasslands. The scientists found their answers in two unlikely places: in horns of Alpine ibex from Switzerland and in 150-year-old hay from England.

<SNIP>

The result: In both locations the intrinsic water-use efficiency of the grassland vegetation rose over the years. This implies that the plants improved their water storage potential as temperatures rose and the level of CO2 in the atmosphere increased. Based on these results the TUM scientists have now, for the first time ever, managed to demonstrate the long-term effects of anthropogenic climate change on the water-use efficiency of grasslands.

There were, however, also differences between the two locations. In Switzerland the effective water-use efficiency of the Alpine meadows remained unchanged in spite of the increased intrinsic water-use efficiency of the grassland. This was because, overall, the air had become drier and warmer as a result of the climate change. In England the scientists found evidence for this effect only during the fall. In the spring though - which in Rothamsted is no drier today than it was 150 years ago - the water storage potential of grassland vegetation had a real effect. This insight will help to further improve climate simulations. In the past, complex simulation models that included vegetation had to rely on estimates where grassland was concerned. The scientists at the TU Muenchen have now succeeded in prying open this climate research black box.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/climatechange-earlier-fungi_news179599392.html


Scientists have discovered that spring-fruiting fungi, including the morel and St George’s mushroom are fruiting nearly three weeks earlier than they did 50 years ago.

The study, carried out by an international team of scientists, including a biologist from Royal Holloway, University of London, examines the changes in the time of spring fruiting in Norway and the UK between 1960 - 2007.

The findings are being published in the 'Proceedings of the Royal Society' this week and show not only how global warming has lead to the earlier fruiting of spring fungi but that climate affects the growth of organisms over much longer time scales than previously thought.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/sealevel-rise-subsidence_news179664990.html


An international team of environmental scientists led by the University of Pennsylvania has shown that sea-level rise along the Atlantic Coast of the United States was 2 millimeters faster in the 20th century than at any time in the past 4,000 years.

Sea-level rise prior to the 20th century is attributed to coastal subsidence. Put simply, land is being lost to subsidence as the earth continues to rise in response to the removal of the huge weight of ice sheets during the last glacial period. Using sediment cores from the U.S. Atlantic coast, researchers found significant spatial variations in land movement, with the mid-Atlantic coastlines of New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland subsiding twice as much as areas to the north and south. Coastal subsidence enhances sea-level rise, which leads to shoreline erosion and loss of wetlands and threatens coastal populations.

Researchers corrected relative sea-level data from tide gauges using the coastal-subsidence values. Results clearly show that the 20th-century rate of sea-level rise is 2 millimeters higher than the background rate of the past 4,000 years. Furthermore, the magnitude of the sea-level rise increases in a southerly direction from Maine to South Carolina. This is the first demonstrated evidence of this phenomenon from observational data alone. Researchers believe this may be related to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and ocean thermal expansion.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/deepocean-ocean-circulationsystem_news179755953.html


<SNIP>

The deep ocean is affected more by surface warming than previously thought, and this understanding allows for more accurate predictions of factors such as sea level rise and ice volume changes.

<SNIP>

"Our findings are significant because they improve our previous understanding that the deep ocean stayed at relatively constant, cold temperatures and that the deep ocean circulation system would slow down as surface temperatures increased," said USGS scientist Harry Dowsett. "By looking at conditions in the past, we acquire real data that allow us to see the global climate system as it actually functioned."

"The average temperature of the entire ocean during the mid-Pliocene was approximately one degree warmer than current conditions, showing that warming wasn't just at the surface but occurred at all depths" said USGS scientist Marci Robinson. "Temperatures were determined by analyzing marine plankton fossils, which are organisms that inhabited the water's surface, as well as fossils of bottom-dwelling organisms, known as ostracodes."

<SNIP>

[macdoc]

December 7, 2009
Low ice extent in Barents Sea and Hudson Bay

In November, the average rate of Arctic sea ice growth slightly exceeded the 1979 to 2000 average growth rate for the month. However, at the end of the month, some regions, in particular the Barents Sea and Hudson Bay, still had much less ice cover than normal.
more
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

[macdoc]

Restless 900 lb gorilla


http://cache.boston.com/bonzai-fba/File-Based_Image_Resource/from_provider_globe.gif (http://www.boston.com/news/globe/) Under the icy north lurks a ‘carbon bomb’

Tropical deforestation is a climate change crisis, but scientists fear for boreal wilderness, too




OTTAWA - North of Canada’s capital, underneath an endless expanse of spruce, pine, and birch, ticks what some scientists are calling a carbon bomb: Peat.







A thick layer of the black spongy soil, the remnants of ancient forests, wraps the globe’s northern tier. Deeper than 15 feet in places, the peat layer extends over more than 6 million square miles across Russia, Scandinavia, China, Canada, and the United States.

Carbon that those forests absorbed from the air over thousands of years is stored in the peat and suspended in waterlogged bogs or permafrost. When it is disturbed or drained - as is happening in some areas - the peat can start to decompose and dry out, unleashing greenhouse gases. In North America alone, the peat and the trees growing in it hold as much carbon as would be emitted worldwide by 26 years of burning fossil fuels at current rates.

“It’s like a great big stew of carbon percolating away for centuries,’’ said Janet Sumner, executive director of the Wildlands League in Ontario, a conservation group pushing to preserve the northern, or boreal, forests from development. “If we don’t protect the boreal, it will mean more emissions and climate change.’’



continues
http://www.boston.com/lifestyle/green/articles/2009/12/13/under_the_icy_north_lurks_a_carbon_bomb/

[macdoc]

Greenland Glaciers: Water Flowing Beneath Ice Plays More Complex Role


(http://www.sciencedaily.com/images/2009/12/091215173144-large.jpg)
ScienceDaily (Dec. 16, 2009) — Scientists who study the melting of Greenland's glaciers are discovering that water flowing beneath the ice plays a much more complex role than they previously imagined.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091215173144.htm

[macdoc]

Are the CRU data “suspect”? An objective assessment.

— eric @ 15 December 2009

Kevin Wood, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington
Eric Steig, Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washingto

snip

Conclusion: There is no indication whatsoever of any problem with the CRU data. An independent study (by a molecular biologist it Italy, as it happens)
http://www.gilestro.tk/2009/lots-of-smoke-hardly-any-gun-do-climatologists-falsify-data/
came to the same conclusion using a somewhat different analysis. None of this should come as any surprise of course, since any serious errors would have been found and published already.


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/12/are-the-cru-data-suspect-an-objective-assessment/

Good read to show the available data and the trend lines....

[macdoc]

Arctic Meltdown
Three-part series airing: Thursday December 3, 10 & 17, 2009 at 10 pm ET/PT on CBC News Network

Arctic Meltdown : The Nature of Things with David Suzuki : CBC-TV (http://www.cbc.ca/documentaries/natureofthings/2009/arcticmeltdown/)

all three parts can be watched in full on line.

[macdoc]

Good for the goose n'all :garfield:

Sceptical climate researcher won't divulge key program

* 17:33 18 December 2009 by Michael Le Page

A physicist whose work is often highlighted by climate-change sceptics is refusing to provide the software he used to other climate researchers attempting to replicate his results.

Nicola Scafetta, a physicist at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina, has published a series of papers over the past few years that suggest the sun played a much bigger role in warming over the 20th century than is generally accepted. In particular, one 2006 paper he co-authored concluded that: "The sun might have contributed approximately 50 per cent of the observed global warming since 1900" (Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027142).
continues
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn18307-sceptical-climate-researcher-wont-divulge-key-program.html

[macdoc]

Microorganisms Cited as Missing Factor in Climate Change Equation

ScienceDaily (Dec. 18, 2009) — Those seeking to understand and predict climate change can now use an additional tool to calculate carbon dioxide exchanges on land, according to a scientific journal article publishing this week.

........

"This is an additional tool to look separately at the uptake of CO2 by photosynthesis, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the release of CO2 by respiration."
complete article
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091218132535.htm
:thumbsup:

[varwoche]

http://www.physorg.com/news177772960.html

On one hand this is bad because a natural sink is disappearing, and this will accelerate warming. On the other hand this means acidification will not be as great as feared and this will have a less negative effect on ocean biological damage. A better link (http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~spk/Research/AnthropogenicCarbon/anthroco2.html).

[macdoc]

Good link....
Kiss a fish today....;)

Fish Guts Explain Marine Carbon Cycle Mystery

ScienceDaily (Jan. 19, 2009)

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/01/090115164607.htm

[macdoc]

oouch :boggled:




The climate may be 30–50 percent more sensitive to atmospheric carbon dioxide in the long term than previously thought, according to a study published in Nature Geoscience yesterday.

Projections over the next hundreds of years of climate conditions, including global temperatures, may need to be adjusted to reflect this higher sensitivity.

To view the article, visit http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo706.html.



http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2358[/QUOTE]

[macdoc]

I assume a webcast is is fair offering....this is a good one...AGU Fall Meeting..Richard Alley on C02

http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm09/lectures/lecture_videos/A23A.shtml

[Trakar]

I assume a webcast is is fair offering....this is a good one...AGU Fall Meeting..Richard Alley on C02

http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm09/lectures/lecture_videos/A23A.shtml

There were quite a few good and interesting things said at the Fall meeting, unfortunately too little of it is available on the web, yet alone covered in the media.

[macdoc]

Quite a crop of analogue signals this week - all articles continue on links


December 21st, 2009 in Space & Earth / Earth Sciences
Highlight: California, Nevada Lakes Warming Rapidly


http://www.physorg.com/print180630986.html


Warming Climate Chills Sonoran Desert's Spring Flowers

ScienceDaily (Dec. 20, 2009) — Global warming is giving a boost to Sonoran Desert plants that have an edge during cold weather, according to new research.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091216144145.htm

Bird Migrations Set To Increase: Added Distance Is 'Considerable Threat' To Some Species

ScienceDaily (June 8, 2009) — Bird migrations are likely to get longer according to the first ever study of the potential impacts of climate change on the breeding and winter ranges of migrant birds. The length of some migrations could increase by as much as 400 km. “The predicted future temperature changes and the associated changes in habitat could have serious consequences for many species”, said lead-author Nathalie Doswald of Durham University (UK).

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/06/090606195332.htm

[macdoc]

One way or another we're mucking with the atmosphere :eusa_doh:


Aircraft Vapor Trails Responsible for 15-20% of Arctic Warming (http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/12/aircraft-vapor-trails-responsible-for-15-20-percent-of-arctic-warming.php)


Even though there are an estimated 35 million commercial airline flights per year little research has been done on the effects of aircraft emissions on global warming. Now, scientists at Stanford University have released the results of the first such study conducted in the United States to be based on actual emissions data.

Their results are unsettling but also provide new insight into the delicate physics of the atmosphere.

Using emissions data from 2004 and 2006, the research team was able to determine that commercial aircraft emissions were responsible for between four and eight percent of total surface warming since records began in 1850. This, they explained, is the equivalent of 0.03-0.06 degree Celsius increase.

continues
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/12/aircraft-vapor-trails-responsible-for-15-20-percent-of-arctic-warming.php

[Matilda]

Hope this fits here:

"Global warming creeps across the world at a speed of a quarter of a mile each year, according to a new study that highlights the problems that rising temperatures pose to plants and animals."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/23/global-warming-spreading-quarter-mile-year

[macdoc]

Sure does - good catch. :thumbsup:

[macdoc]

Antarctica may heat up dramatically as ozone hole repairs, warn scientists
December 2009 09.06 GMT
As blanket of ozone over southern pole seals up, temperatures on continent could soar by 3C, increasing sea level rise by 1.4m
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/dec/01/ozone-antarctica

[macdoc]

Nature Reports Climate Change
Published online: 17 December 2009 | doi:10.1038/climate.2010.134
Climate science in 2009

For climate science, the year 2009 brought significant discoveries and startling controversies. Kurt Kleiner reports.
http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1001/full/climate.2010.134.html

[Lennart Hyland]

I was chatting with a guy yesterday he was mainly upset about AGW for its lack of fair and balanced research, debate and transparency. And how its obviously is one sided he stated.

But I mean whats to debate? All the evidence point at the same direction huh? AGW is real and we have to do something about it.

[macdoc]

:thumbsup:

•••

PASADENA, Calif., Dec. 27 (UPI) -- New U.S. scientific findings suggest that climate change may be affecting aquatic environments faster and sooner than the atmosphere.

Researchers from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., came to conclusions after noticing that Lake Tahoe, Clear Lake and four other big lakes in Northern California and Nevada are heating up faster than the surrounding atmosphere, The Sacramento Bee reported Sunday.

The newspaper said the researchers tapped satellite sensor temperature data compiled over 18 years in what is believed to be the first time that long-range lake surface temperatures have been dissected. What the data reportedly showed is that the lakes' water temperature rose two times faster, on average, than the regional air temperatures.

"It was a big surprise to see that," Philipp Schneider, the study's lead author and a post-doctoral research scientist at the NASA lab, told the Bee. "If it turns out they're actually changing faster than the air temperature, then there's a whole new phenomenon going on here. The lake ecosystems are going to be very much affected, especially because the trend we observed seems to be quite rapid."

http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2009/12/27/NASA-study-Lakes-warming-quickly/UPI-92241261944714/

[BenBurch]

... fair and balanced ...

That should tell you where he gets these ideas...

[Lennart Hyland]

That should tell you where he gets these ideas...

Sorry but what do you mean? :o

[BenBurch]

Sorry but what do you mean? :o

Oh! Sorry, that would be lost on somebody from Sweden. That is the slogan for "Fox News" a right-wing so-called "News" network owned by Rupert Murdoch.

[Lennart Hyland]

Oh! Sorry, that would be lost on somebody from Sweden. That is the slogan for "Fox News" a right-wing so-called "News" network owned by Rupert Murdoch.

You are forgiven :)

I borrow this thread for a moment, but I remember reading somewhere that we contribute to about 3% of all CO2 release. Now I stumbled upon people saying this, and that its to small for it to affect the climate.

Any thoughts?

[BenBurch]

You are forgiven :)

I borrow this thread for a moment, but I remember reading somewhere that we contribute to about 3% of all CO2 release. Now I stumbled upon people saying this, and that its to small for it to affect the climate.

Any thoughts?

The isotope numbers say that fossil fuels contribute 80% of the increase in CO2 since 1850, most of the rest comes from soil deterioration and deforestation due to agriculture, and production of cement. So, far more than the 3% claimed. Lets start a new thread if you want to discuss further.

[Lennart Hyland]

The isotope numbers say that fossil fuels contribute 80% of the increase in CO2 since 1850, most of the rest comes from soil deterioration and deforestation due to agriculture, and production of cement. So, far more than the 3% claimed. Lets start a new thread if you want to discuss further.

Thank you very much for you answer! Maybe you have a source to back it up too? :)

Its an very interesting topic but for me its most of the times also very hard to understand.... I have no educatio/experience in this field at all. :o

But I do my best to read and understand these threads :)

[INRM]

How the hell do we know if this is true or not? After climate-gate, how do you know if they're not just pulling another ruse?

[DogB]

Not sure if this one has been posted yet.

http://www.vtnews.vt.edu/story.php?relyear=2009&itemno=950

[macdoc]

Love the smell of melting mammoths in the morning ;)
Good find.

[DogB]

Love the smell of melting mammoths in the morning ;)

:D

[a_unique_person]

That should tell you where he gets these ideas...

"We report, You believe".

[macdoc]

AGU 2009: Afghan glaciers recede, portending further strife

Harvey Leifert
Just when we thought you knew all of the dangers facing the people of Afghanistan, here comes one more: catastrophic flooding from high altitude glaciers. Afghanistan’s glaciers are located in the narrow eastern Wakhan Panhandle of the country, wedged between Pakistan, China, and several former Soviet republics. They drain southwestward via system of streams, providing surface water and recharging aquifers through most of the country.


http://blogs.nature.com/climatefeedback/2009/12/agu_2009_afghan_glaciers_reced.html

[macdoc]

Very vivid illustration of glacier loss around the planet....in keeping with the seasonal spirit.

7 glaciers melting

Category: climate science • environment
Posted on: December 31, 2009 11:30 AM, by Chris Rowan

A post by Chris Rowan
On the 7th day of Christmas my true love sent to me: 7 Glaciers melting...

All over the world, where there are glaciers, those glaciers are not as large as they once were a century, or even a few decades, ago:
....
Glaciers are dynamic systems, but although there are some complexities in interpreting the behaviour of any individual one, when you see the same rapid shrinking trend in all of these different parts of the world, you stop looking for local causes.
continues ....with comparative photos now and then

http://scienceblogs.com/highlyallochthonous/2009/12/7_glaciers_melting.php

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/arcticair-air-coldsnap_news182026415.html


<SNIP>
Such weather doesn't seem to fit with warnings from scientists that the Earth is warming because of greenhouse gases. But experts say the cold snap doesn't disprove global warming at all - it's just a blip in the long-term heating trend.

"It's part of natural variability," said Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. With global warming, he said, "we'll still have record cold temperatures. We'll just have fewer of them."
<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news182516505.html

Forests in northern areas are stunted, verging on the edge of survival. It has been anticipated that climate change improves their growth conditions. A study published last week in Forest Ecology and Management journal shows that due to their genetic characteristics trees are unable to properly benefit from the lengthening growing season. Furthermore, the researchers were surprised to find that the mortality of established trees considerably promotes the adaptation of forests to the changing environment.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news182100315.html

Contrary to conventional belief, as the climate warms and growing seasons lengthen subalpine forests are likely to soak up less carbon dioxide, according to a new University of Colorado at Boulder study.

As a result, more of the greenhouse gas will be left to concentrate in the atmosphere.

"Our findings contradict studies of other ecosystems that conclude longer growing seasons actually increase plant carbon uptake," said Jia Hu, who conducted the research as a graduate student in CU-Boulder's ecology and evolutionary biology department in conjunction with the university's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, or CIRES.

<SNIP>

[Mikemcc]

You are forgiven :)

I borrow this thread for a moment, but I remember reading somewhere that we contribute to about 3% of all CO2 release. Now I stumbled upon people saying this, and that its to small for it to affect the climate.

Any thoughts?It was a mis-interpretation of the carbon cycle diagrams. Fossil fuels do only account for 3% of total emissions, but that ignores the amount that is absorbed into the sinks. Looking at the balance of flows man's contribution is significant. Looking at the figures, man's emissions since 1750 are more than capable of accounting for the excess CO2 in the atmosphere.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/acid-bacteria-source_news182798965.html

Acid Mine Drainage (AMD) is caused when sulphur in mine tailings reacts with water and oxygen in the environment to produce sulphuric acid. It is a major environmental issue, with AMD a concern for lake acidification and water quality. AMD is also implicated as a climate change culprit - the sulphuric acid dissolves carbonate minerals in the underlying rock, liberating carbon dioxide in a process known as acid rock weathering.

<SNIP>

The discovery, made by Ph.D. student Kelsey Norlund and her advisor Lesley Warren with the help of veteran synchrotron researcher Adam Hitchcock, not only demonstrates how bacteria can modify their environment, but could also lead to a rethink of the amount of atmospheric carbon produced by acid weathering that is included in global models by as much as 26 million tonnes.

<SNIP>

[Peephole]

NASA published an essay on the cold snap and 2009 temperatures:
If It’s That Warm, How Come It’s So Damned Cold?

The past year, 2009, tied as the second warmest year in the 130 years of global instrumental temperature records, in the surface temperature analysis of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The Southern Hemisphere set a record as the warmest year for that half of the world.

Global mean temperature, as shown in Figure 1a, was 0.57°C (1.0°F) warmer than climatology (the 1951‐1980 base period). Southern Hemisphere mean temperature, as shown in Figure 1b, was 0.49°C (0.88°F) warmer than in the period of climatology.

http://users.telenet.be/peephole/AGW/NASA%20-%20GISS%20-%202009%20-%20Final.png

http://users.telenet.be/peephole/AGW/NASA%20-%20GISS%20-%202009%20Means.png

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2010/20100115_Temperature2009.pdf (http://www.columbia.edu/%7Ejeh1/mailings/2010/20100115_Temperature2009.pdf)

[varwoche]

We isolated the wetland and rice paddy contributions to spaceborne CH4 measurements over 2003–2005 using satellite observations of gravity anomalies, a proxy for water-table depth, and surface temperature analyses ... We estimate a 7% rise in wetland CH4 emissions over 2003–2007, due to warming of mid-latitude and Arctic wetland regions, which we find is consistent with recent changes in atmospheric CH4. link (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/327/5963/322)

[BenBurch]

http://www.mercurynews.com/bay-area-news/ci_14217108


<SNIP>
During the past 35 years, Shapiro has built the world's largest database of regional butterfly activity from his twice-monthly observations of 159 species at 10 sites from Suisun Marsh to the peaks of the Sierra. The massive database now reveals an unmistakable pattern of butterflies traveling to higher elevations as average temperatures rise. The analysis was published last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.courthousenews.com/2010/01/18/23799.htm


<SNIP>
Mundy proposed two reasons for the decline. The first being a sustained five degree temperature increase in air temperature of the salmon's breeding grounds in comparison to the temperature average 60 years. He said the region "has been among the most strongly affected by global warming."
<SNIP>
"The loss of sea ice is certainly a factor in the loss of food resources for the salmon," he said, noting that arthropods -- invertebrates such as insects and crabs -- that live on the underside of the floating ice.
<SNIP>

[Matilda]

A tiny bit of good news. Possibly.

Temperature and CO2 feedback loop 'weaker than thought'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8483722.stm

[Matilda]

Some more news:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/29/water-vapour-climate-change

Both of these articles show where the scientific debate in climate change really is -- in the specifics.

[macdoc]

Climate 'Tipping Points' May Arrive Without Warning, Says Top Forecaster

ScienceDaily (Feb. 10, 2010) — A new University of California, Davis, study by a top ecological forecaster says it is harder than experts thought to predict when sudden shifts in Earth's natural systems will occur -- a worrisome finding for scientists trying to identify the tipping points that could push climate change into an irreparable global disaster.
.
more
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100209191445.htm

[BenBurch]

http://forums.randi.org/showpost.php?p=5632390&postcount=3126

[macdoc]

Projection Shows Water Woes Likely Based on Warmer Temperatures

ScienceDaily (Feb. 17, 2010) — Several Midwestern states could be facing increased winter and spring flooding, as well as difficult growing conditions on farms, if average temperatures rise, according to a Purdue University researcher.

more

Web address:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/
100217093258.htm

[macdoc]

ouch

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100

D. O. Breecker, Z. D. Sharp, and L. D. McFadden
Edited by Thure E. Cerling, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, and approved October 22, 2009 (received for review March 5, 2009)

Abstract
Quantifying atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]atm) during Earth’s ancient greenhouse episodes is essential for accurately predicting the response of future climate to elevated CO2 levels. Empirical estimates of [CO2]atm during Paleozoic and Mesozoic greenhouse climates are based primarily on the carbon isotope composition of calcium carbonate in fossil soils. We report that greenhouse [CO2]atm have been significantly overestimated because previously assumed soil CO2 concentrations during carbonate formation are too high. More accurate [CO2]atm, resulting from better constraints on soil CO2, indicate that large (1,000s of ppmV) fluctuations in [CO2]atm did not characterize ancient climates and that past greenhouse climates were accompanied by concentrations similar to those projected for A.D. 2100.


Atmospheric CO2 concentrations during ancient greenhouse climates were similar to those predicted for A.D. 2100 ? PNAS (http://www.pnas.org/content/107/2/576)

and from Nature

ouch....

Insights from earth : article : Nature Reports Climate Change (http://www.nature.com/climate/2010/1002/full/climate.2010.03.html)

[BenBurch]

Its the "Sorcerer's Apprentice" problem, macdoc.

[macdoc]

indeed...

an excellent over view of aerosol and C02 anthro effects...


Smoke bomb: The other climate culprits

* 19 February 2010 by Anil Ananthaswamy


IN JUNE 1783, lava and gases began pouring from the Laki fissure in Iceland in one of the biggest and most devastating eruptions in history. Poisonous gases and starvation killed a quarter of Iceland's population. The effects of the eight-month-long eruption were felt further afield, too. In the rest of Europe, a scorching summer of strange fogs was followed by a series of devastating winters. In North America, the winter of 1784 was so cold the Mississippi froze at New Orleans.


continues in a well referenced survey...
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20527481.400-smoke-bomb-the-other-climate-culprits.html?full=true

[lomiller]

Paper finds no correlation between cloud formation can cosmic ray activity.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009GL041327.shtml


Currently a cosmic ray cloud connection (CRC) hypothesis is subject of an intense controversial debate. It postulates that galactic cosmic rays (GCR) intruding the Earth's atmosphere influence cloud cover. If correct it would have important consequences for our understanding of climate driving processes. Here we report on an alternative and stringent test of the CRC-hypothesis by searching for a possible influence of sudden GCR decreases (so-called Forbush decreases) on clouds. We find no response of global cloud cover to Forbush decreases at any altitude and latitude.

[DogB]

Paper finds no correlation between cloud formation can cosmic ray activity.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009GL041327.shtml

Interesting. Have you read the whole paper?

If so did they discuss a response to this (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL038429.shtml) paper?

[lomiller]

If so did they discuss a response to this (http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL038429.shtml) paper?

They say this


Recently, Svensmark et al. [2009] claimed the finding of significant reductions in cloud water content (SSM/I), cloud cover (MODIS, ISCCP) and aerosol concentrations (AERONET) for low clouds during 26 Forbush decreases (hereafter briefly termed Fd). However, after reanalyzing the liquid water cloud fraction (LCF) data measured by MODIS and the corresponding Fd events Laken et al. [2009] concluded that LCF variations are unrelated to Fd events and thus do not support a relationship between
GCR and clouds.


Laken et al

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040961.shtml

[DogB]

Sigh, another paper to find. I'm never going to get caught up.

[DogB]

Science corrects itself. Always a beautiful thing.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/feb/21/sea-level-geoscience-retract-siddall

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/marineprotected-species-marine_news186058146.html

Move, adapt or die. Those are the options marine plants and animals have in the face of climate change, said Stanford biologist Steve Palumbi, who has been exploring how to help them go with the first two options, rather than the third. He's come up with some surprising answers.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/globalwarming-warming-storms_news186049369.html

Top researchers now agree that the world is likely to get stronger but fewer hurricanes in the future because of global warming, seeming to settle a scientific debate on the subject. But they say there's not enough evidence yet to tell whether that effect has already begun.

Since just before Hurricane Katrina hit Louisiana and Mississippi in 2005, dueling scientific papers have clashed about whether global warming is worsening hurricanes and will do so in the future. The new study seems to split the difference. A special World Meteorological Organization panel of 10 experts in both hurricanes and climate change - including leading scientists from both sides - came up with a consensus, which is published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

"We've really come a long way in the last two years about our knowledge of the hurricane and climate issue," said study co-author Chris Landsea, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration top hurricane researcher. The technical term for these storms are tropical cyclones; in the Atlantic they get called hurricanes, elsewhere typhoons.

The study offers projections for tropical cyclones worldwide by the end of this century, and some experts said the bad news outweighs the good. Overall strength of storms as measured in wind speed would rise by 2 to 11 percent, but there would be between 6 and 34 percent fewer storms in number. Essentially, there would be fewer weak and moderate storms and more of the big damaging ones, which also are projected to be stronger due to warming.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/ice-seaice-arctic_news185810964.html

In 2007, the Arctic lost a massive amount of thick, multiyear sea ice, contributing to that year's record-low extent of Arctic sea ice. A new NASA-led study has found that the record loss that year was due in part to the absence of "ice arches," naturally-forming, curved ice structures that span the openings between two land points. These arches block sea ice from being pushed by winds or currents through narrow passages and out of the Arctic basin.

Beginning each fall, sea ice spreads across the surface of the Arctic Ocean until it becomes confined by surrounding continents. Only a few passages -- including the Fram Strait and Nares Strait -- allow sea ice to escape.

"There are a couple of ways to lose Arctic ice: when it flows out and when it melts," said lead study researcher Ron Kwok of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. "We are trying to quantify how much we're losing by outflow versus melt."

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/climate-warming-aerosols_news185807209.html

For decades, climatologists have studied the gases and particles that have potential to alter Earth's climate. They have discovered and described certain airborne chemicals that can trap incoming sunlight and warm the climate, while others cool the planet by blocking the Sun's rays.

Now a new study led by Nadine Unger of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York City offers a more intuitive way to understand what's changing the Earth's climate. Rather than analyzing impacts by chemical species, scientists have analyzed the climate impacts by different economic sectors.

<SNIP>
In their analysis, motor vehicles emerged as the greatest contributor to atmospheric warming now and in the near term. Cars, buses, and trucks release pollutants and greenhouse gases that promote warming, while emitting few aerosols that counteract it.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/blocking-blockingevents-atmosphericblocking_news185719909.html

Whether it's never-ending heat waves or winter storms, atmospheric blocking can have a significant impact on local agriculture, business and the environment. Although these stagnant weather patterns are often difficult to predict, University of Missouri researchers are now studying whether increasing planet temperatures and carbon dioxide levels could lead to atmospheric blocking and when this blocking might occur, leading to more accurate forecasts.

"In this research, we're trying to see if increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the resulting atmospheric warming will affect the onset and duration of future blocking events," said Tony Lupo, professor and chair of the atmospheric science department at the MU College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. "We're hoping that the research will add cues that could help fellow forecasters better predict blocking and warn people in cases of long-lasting, severe weather."

Atmospheric blocking occurs between 20-40 times each year and usually lasts between 8-11 days, Lupo said. Although they are one of the rarest weather events, blocking can trigger dangerous conditions, such as a 2003 European heat wave that caused 40,000 deaths. Blocking usually results when a powerful, high-pressure area gets stuck in one place and, because they cover a large area, fronts behind them are blocked. Lupo believes that heat sources, such as radiation, condensation, and surface heating and cooling, have a significant role in a blocking's onset and duration. Therefore, planetary warming could increase the frequency and impact of atmospheric blocking.

"It is anticipated that in a warmer world, blocking events will be more numerous, weaker and longer-lived," Lupo said. "This could result in an environment with more storms. We also anticipate the variability of weather patterns will change dramatically over some parts of the world, such as North America, Europe and Asia, but not in others."

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/carbondioxide-globalwarming-carbon_news185710063.html


Pumping nutrient-rich water up from the deep ocean to boost algal growth in sunlit surface waters and draw carbon dioxide down from the atmosphere has been touted as a way of ameliorating global warming. However, a new study led by Professor Andreas Oschlies of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR) in Kiel, Germany, pours cold water on the idea.

"Computer simulations show that climatic benefits of the proposed geo-engineering scheme would be modest, with the potential to exacerbate global warming should it fail," said study co-author Dr Andrew Yool of the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton (NOCS).

If international governmental policies fail to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide to levels needed to keep the impacts of human-induced climate change within acceptable limits it may necessary to move to 'Plan B'. This could involve the implementation of one or more large-scale geo-engineering schemes proposed for reducing the carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news184925284.html


The climatic warming will increase the carbon dioxide emissions from soil more than previously estimated. This is a mechanism that will significantly accelerate the climate change. Already now the carbon dioxide emissions from soil are ten times higher than the emissions of fossil carbon. A Finnish research group has proved that the present standard measurements underestimate the effect of climate warming on emissions from the soil.

The error is serious enough to require revisions in climate change estimates. In all climate models, the estimates of emissions from soil are based on measurements made using this erroneous method. Climate models must be revised so that the largest carbon storage of the land ecosystems will be estimated correctly. The sensitivity of the soil carbon storage to climatic warming will endanger the carbon sink capacity of forests in the future.

Research on the effect of climate change on the carbon dioxide release from soil is seriously studied by many research groups around the world. It is known that emissions from soil have a significant influence on the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere and thereby on the future climate. However, these studies are usually based on short-term measurements of the carbon dioxide production of soil. According to the results of the Finnish research group, such a method gives systematically biased estimates on the effects of climate change on the emissions.

<SNIP>

[r-j]

"The studies in boreal forests showed that carbon dioxide emissions (http://www.physorg.com/tags/carbon+dioxide+emissions/) from the soil will be up to 50 percent higher than those suggested by the present mainstream method, if the mean temperature will rise as it is estimated, that is, by 5 centigrades before the end of this century, and if the carbon flow to the soil will not increase."

That certainly confirms it.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/ice-iceshelves-antarctic_news186068531.html

Ice shelves are retreating in the southern section of the Antarctic Peninsula due to climate change. This could result in glacier retreat and sea-level rise if warming continues, threatening coastal communities and low-lying islands worldwide.

Research by the U.S. Geological Survey is the first to document that every ice front in the southern part of the Antarctic Peninsula has been retreating overall from 1947 to 2009, with the most dramatic changes occurring since 1990. The USGS previously documented that the majority of ice fronts on the entire Peninsula have also retreated during the late 20th century and into the early 21st century.

The ice shelves are attached to the continent and already floating, holding in place the Antarctic ice sheet that covers about 98 percent of the Antarctic continent. As the ice shelves break off, it is easier for outlet glaciers and ice streams from the ice sheet to flow into the sea. The transition of that ice from land to the ocean is what raises sea level.

<SNIP>

[r-j]

Please confine discussion to said articles or post some of your own.


The ice shelves are attached to the continent and already floating, holding in place the Antarctic ice sheet (http://www.physorg.com/tags/antarctic+ice+sheet/)


I always wondered what kept that ice sheet from just sliding off the land. The shelves hold the sheets. Elegant solution.

[BenBurch]

Deep in sediments off Antarctica, Stanford scientists find insight into past -- and possible future -- climates

http://pda.physorg.com/sealevel-icesheet-ice_news185729199.html


From the Antarctic Ocean, Earth scientist Rob Dunbar blogs about the challenges of drilling ancient deep-sea sediments -- and what he's found in them.

If cabin fever is gnawing at you this winter, consider taking a vicarious voyage with Stanford Earth scientist Rob Dunbar, who is drilling in - and blogging from - the deep sea off the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. He's in search of clues to Earth's past climate, and his blog, full of video clips, photos and written entries, gives a lively account of an expedition to Wilkes Land, an area due south of Australia that has never been drilled before.

Dunbar and his fellow researchers are extracting cores of sediment from deposits under the ocean that were laid down over the last 50 million years or so, stretching back to a time when a balmier Antarctica was largely ice free and covered with forests. The team particularly wants to analyze sediments deposited about 34 million years ago, during the transition from that warm climate to a cooler one that produced the first growth of polar ice caps.

Dunbar said the transition is thought to have been triggered by changes in the levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. "Learning more about abrupt climate transitions in the past will help us better understand what lies ahead in our greenhouse future," he said.
<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/climatechange-climate-iceage_news186089477.html


More than 350 years ago, the temperatures in northern Europe dropped dramatically in an event known as the “Little Ice Age.” Now - deep below the waters of the Gulf of Mexico and buried in the sand, silt and mud - a USF marine geologist has discovered new evidence showing just how this long-ago climate change also affected the low latitude of subtropical areas.

Using deep-sea sediment samples pulled from below the gulf floor, climate change researcher Julie Richey has been able to reconstruct what happened to temperatures on the gulf’s surface. Her discovery: the Gulf of Mexico cooled 2 to 3-degrees during the Little Ice Age, a much more dramatic effect that suggests the region may be more sensitive to climate change than scientists expected.

“The more we learn about past climate change, the more we understand about what is occurring now,” said Richey, a presidential doctoral fellow at the College of Marine Science.

<SNIP>

[lomiller]

I thought the Little Ice Age was disproved by the Hockey Stick?


The little ice age is readily apparent in all the climate reconstitution. It is, however, much smaller then the blade of the hockey stick. For some strange reason anti-science blogger seem to think that if the LIA exists it must be larger then recent climate change.

in keeping with the purpose of this thread to discuss actual published science not loony blogsphere pseudo-science here is the most comprehensive climate reconstruction to date.

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2008/09/02/0805721105.full.pdf+html

[Professor Yaffle]

Some posts moved to AAH. Please keep discussion centred on the studies posted in this thread. There are plenty of other threads for general AGW debate. Thank you for your cooperation

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/water-glacier-oxygen_news186387978.html


<SNIP>

The new iceberg is 48 miles (78 kilometers) long and about 24 miles (39 kilometers) wide and holds roughly the equivalent of a fifth of the world's annual total water usage, Young told The Associated Press.

Experts are concerned about the effect of the massive displacement of ice on the ice-free water next to the glacier, which is important for ocean currents.

This area of water had been kept clear because of the glacier, said Steve Rintoul, a leading climate expert. With part of the glacier gone, the area could fill with sea ice, which would disrupt the ability for the dense and cold water to sink.

This sinking water is what spills into ocean basins and feeds the global ocean currents with oxygen, Rintoul explained.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/coffee-producers-countries_news186418664.html


Coffee producers say they are getting hammered by global warming, with higher temperatures forcing growers to move to prized higher ground, putting the cash crop at risk.

"There is already evidence of important changes" said Nestor Osorio, head of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), which represents 77 countries that export or import the beans.

"In the last 25 years the temperature has risen half a degree in coffee producing countries, five times more than in the 25 years before," he said.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/ice-iceloss-glaciermelt_news186758202.html


The melting of glaciers is well documented, but when looking at the rate at which they have been retreating, a team of international researchers steps back and says not so fast.
<SNIP>
Schiefer said melting glaciers in Alaska originally were thought to contribute about .0067 inches to sea-level rise per year. The team's new calculations put that number closer to .0047 inches per year. The numbers sound small, but as Schiefer said, "It adds up over the decades."
<SNIP>
While the team determined a lower rate of glacial melt during a greater than 40-year span, Schiefer said other studies have demonstrated the rate of ice loss has more than doubled in just the last two decades.

"With current projections of climate change, we expect that acceleration to continue," Schiefer said. This substantial increase in ice loss since the 1990s is now pushing up the rise in sea level to between .0098 inches and .0118 inches per year—more than double the average rate for the last 40 years.


So, the good news; Not as much contribution over the last 40 years as believed from smaller studies. The bad news; its accelerating.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/air-capegrim-greenhousegases_news186833230.html


<SNIP>

According to the diving diary of the SCUBA tank's owner, Mr J. Allport of Beaumaris, the tank was last filled in 1968 and last used in 1970. A diving service company in Melbourne's CBD filled the tank and it therefore contains ambient air from the city precinct.

Analysis of the air sample using a range of detectors has generated new trace gas data on; propellants, refrigerants and aluminium smelter emissions (HFCS and PFCs), present in the global background atmosphere of 1968, but not widely used in Melbourne at that time.

"If tanks were filled in a clean coastal environment their usefulness in measuring greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chloro-flurocarbons (CFCs) is much broader," Dr Fraser said.

[Pixel42]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8550090.stm

A review from the UK Met Office says it is becoming clearer that human activities are causing climate change.

It says the evidence is stronger now than when the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change carried out its last assessment in 2007.

The analysis, published in the Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Journal, has assessed 110 research papers on the subject. [...]

The study, which looks at research published since the IPCC's report, has found that changes in Arctic sea ice, atmospheric moisture, saltiness of parts of the Atlantic Ocean and temperature changes in the Antarctic are consistent with human influence on our climate.

Guardian report on the same study: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/mar/05/met-office-analysis-climate-change

The map at the end of the article is interesting.

[Mikemcc]

Scripps saying that the El Nino is causing Californian marine life to 'thin' out as the warm water is stifling updraughts taht would normally bring nutrients up.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100303162856.htm

[sphenisc]

Rapid upturn in Arctic Sea Ice Extent

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

[BenBurch]

Very interesting!

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/nitrousoxide-waters-production_news187537818.html


The increased frequency and intensity of oxygen-deprived "dead zones" along the world's coasts can negatively impact environmental conditions in far more than just local waters. In the March 12 edition of the journal Science, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science oceanographer Dr. Lou Codispoti explains that the increased amount of nitrous oxide (N2O) produced in low-oxygen (hypoxic) waters can elevate concentrations in the atmosphere, further exacerbating the impacts of global warming and contributing to ozone "holes" that cause an increase in our exposure to harmful UV radiation.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/addingiron-iron-carbon_news187896509.html

(PhysOrg.com) -- New research led by The University of Western Ontario warns of the potential for ecological harm caused by the fertilization of oceanic waters with the trace element iron. This fertilization method is being proposed to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and sequester it into the ocean depths.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/prescribedburns-carbon-carbondioxide_news188045027.html


The use of prescribed burns to manage Western forests may help the United States reduce its carbon footprint. A new study finds that such burns, often used by forest managers to reduce underbrush and protect bigger trees, release substantially less carbon dioxide emissions than wildfires of the same size.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/fire-giant-firehistory_news188069508.html


California's western Sierra Nevada had more frequent fires between 800 and 1300 than at any time in the past 3,000 years, according to a new study led by Thomas W. Swetnam, director of UA's Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research.

<SNIP>

Increasingly, researchers all over the world are using charcoal to reconstruct fire histories, Swetnam said. Many scientists are analyzing the global record of charcoal to study relationships between climate, fire and the resulting addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/ice-icesheet-northwestcoast_news188580215.html


Ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet, which has been increasing during the past decade over its southern region, is now moving up its northwest coast, according to a new international study.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/carbondioxide-carbon-soilrespiration_news188655169.html


Twenty years of field studies reveal that as the Earth has gotten warmer, plants and microbes in the soil have given off more carbon dioxide. So-called soil respiration has increased about one-tenth of 1 percent per year since 1989, according to an analysis of past studies in today's issue of Nature.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/hydrogencyanide-stratosphere-monsoon_news188745631.html


The economic growth across much of Asia comes with a troubling side effect: pollutants from the region are being wafted up to the stratosphere during monsoon season. The new finding, in a study led by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, provides additional evidence of the global nature of air pollution and its effects far above Earth's surface.

<SNIP>

Randel says more research is needed into the possible effects of the pollutants. When sulfur rises into the stratosphere, it can lead to the creation of small particles called aerosols that are known to influence the ozone layer. The monsoon transport pathway may also have effects on other gases in the stratosphere, such as water vapor, that affect global climate by influencing the amount of solar heat that reaches Earth.

<SNIP>

[One Skunk Todd]

Not a paper but related perhaps:

http://www.jhuapl.edu/ClimateAndEnergy/

Climate and energy issues as they relate to the U.S. Navy/DoD/U.S. in general, how they affect national security, warfighting capability, etc...

The talks reflected a lot of what I see elsewhere in this thread. I'll keep an eye out and see if they post proceedings.

One of the things discussed, bio-fuel FA-18 "Green" Hornet:

http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/10/14/navy-launches-green-hornet/

Oh I see an article about the keynote speaker has just been posted:

http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=98

[BenBurch]

Thanks, Todd.

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/forest-earthsystem-carbon_news188731079.html


Having a large-scale boreal forest biomass inventory would allow scientists to understand better the carbon cycle and to predict more accurately Earth's future climate. However, obtaining these maps has been wrought with difficulty - until now.

<SNIP>

[DogB]

Global warming creates peace in our time (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100324/ap_on_sc/as_india_disappearing_island).

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/globalwarming-oceanacidification-millionyears_news189066777.html


The rise in human emissions of carbon dioxide is driving fundamental and dangerous changes in the chemistry and ecosystems of the world’s oceans, international marine scientists warned today
<SNIP>
The scientists say there is now persuasive evidence that mass extinctions in past Earth history, like the “Great Dying” of 251 million years ago and another wipeout 55 million years ago, were accompanied by ocean acidification, which may have delivered the deathblow to many species that were unable to adapt.
<SNIP>
“Future acidification depends on how much CO2 humans emit from here on - but by the year 2100 various projections indicate that the oceans will have acidified by a further 0.3 to 0.4 pH units, which is more than many organisms like corals can stand”, Professor Hoegh-Guldberg said.

“This will create conditions not seen on Earth for at least 40 million years.
<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/brightwater-water-reflectivity_news189059955.html

A Harvard physicist has proposed the Earth could be cooled by pumping vast numbers of tiny bubbles into the sea to lower ocean temperatures and increase the water’s reflectivity. The same strategy could be used in rivers and lakes to reduce evaporation.

<SNIP>

[Furcifer]

http://pda.physorg.com/brightwater-water-reflectivity_news189059955.html

See, the AGW alarmists are a bunch of swingers. "Welcome to the hawt tubb"

The only solution to Global Warming is a key party at Ben's place. ;)

[macdoc]

I like this mitigation approach////
Could Tiny Bubbles Cool the Planet?
by Eli Kintisch on March 26, 2010 11:33 AM | Permanent Link | 32 Comments

PACIFIC GROVE, CALIFORNIA—In an effort to curb global warming, scientists have proposed everything from launching sunlight-blocking dust into the stratosphere to boosting the number of carbon-sucking algae in the oceans. Now, a Harvard University physicist has come up with a new way to cool parts of the planet: pump vast swarms of tiny bubbles into the sea to increase its reflectivity and lower water temperatures. “Since water covers most of the earth, don’t dim the sun,” says the scientist, Russell Seitz, speaking from an international meeting on geoengineering research here. “Brighten the water.”

continues
http://news.sciencemag.org/sciencenow/2010/03/could-tiny-bubbles-cool-the-plan.html

[BenBurch]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/26/AR2010032603171.html


WASHINGTON -- It will probably come as a surprise to most Americans, but the winter just finished was the fifth warmest on record, worldwide.

Oh, sure, nearly two-thirds of the country can dispute that from personal experience of a colder-than-normal season.

But while much of the United States was colder than usual, December-February - climatological winter - continued the long string of unusual warmth on a global basis.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/buffalobayou-springcreek-shells_news189438468.html


<SNIP>
"The shell roads built in the early 20th century are buried under the surface, and they're slowly decomposing," Masiello said. "Urban acid rain falls on the shells and dissolves them, releasing a pool of CO2 that moves into the groundwater. On a rainy day, that CO2 gets swept out of the soil and pushed into the river. So when we date CO2 in Buffalo Bayou, it's extremely old because it's carrying the age of these fossil shells."

Masiello and Zeng, a native of China who expects to finish her doctorate this year, set out to fill a gap in the data about how much CO2 is released to the atmosphere by rivers planetwide. The current estimate is 1 gigaton (a billion tons) per year, about the same amount those rivers deliver to the ocean (where oysters and others put it to good use).

That balancing act is good for the planet, because plant growth naturally compensates for rivers' release of CO2, Masiello said. On the other hand, there is no natural balance for the CO2 released by fossil fuel combustion, which puts about 10 times the amount released by rivers into the atmosphere.
<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/04/100404203119.htm


ScienceDaily (Apr. 5, 2010) — Crop residues, perennial warm season grasses, and short-rotation woody crops are potential biomass sources for cellulosic ethanol production. While most research is focused on the conversion of cellulosic feeedstocks into ethanol and increasing production of biomass, the impacts of growing energy crops and the removal of crop residue on soil and environmental quality have received less attention. Moreover, effects of crop residue removal on soil and environmental quality have not been compared against those of dedicated energy crops.

In the March-April 2010 issue of Agronomy Journal, published by the American Society of Agronomy, Dr. Humberto Blanco reviewed the impacts of crop residue removal, warm season grasses, and short-rotation woody crops on critical soil properties, carbon sequestration, and water quality as well as the performance of energy crops in marginal lands. The review found that crop residue removal from corn, wheat,and grain sorghumcan adversely impact soil and environmental quality. Removal of more than 50% of crop residue can have negative consequences for soil structure, reduce soil organic carbon sequestration, increase water erosion, and reduce nutrient cycling and crop production, particularly in erodible and sloping soils.

"Crop residue removal can make no-till soils a source rather than a sink of atmospheric carbon," says Blanco, even at rates lower than 50%. Residue removal at rates of less than 25% can cause loss of sediment in runoff relative to soils without residue removal. To avoid the negative impacts on soil, perhaps only a small fraction of residue might be available for removal. This small amount of crop residues is not economically feasible nor logistically possible. Blanco recomends developing other alternative biomass feedstock sources for cellulosic ethanol production.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100404/sc_nm/us_climate_nitrous


OSLO (Reuters) – Thawing permafrost can release nitrous oxide, also known as laughing gas, a contributor to climate change that has been largely overlooked in the Arctic, a study showed on Sunday.

The report in the journal Nature Geoscience indicated that emissions of the gas surged under certain conditions from melting permafrost that underlies about 25 percent of land in the Northern Hemisphere.

Emissions of the gas measured from thawing wetlands in Zackenberg in eastern Greenland leapt 20 times to levels found in tropical forests, which are among the main natural sources of the heat-trapping gas.

"Measurements of nitrous oxide production permafrost samples from five additional wetland sites in the high Arctic indicate that the rates of nitrous oxide production observed in the Zackenberg soils may be in the low range," the study said.

<SNIP>

[Furcifer]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100404/sc_nm/us_climate_nitrous

In related news The Dead and Phish is set to perform a free concert in the Arctic ;)

Hehe, hehehehe.

That's in addition to the methane being released too. What the heck is frozen in the ground up there anyways?

[BenBurch]

In related news The Dead and Phish is set to perform a free concert in the Arctic ;)

Hehe, hehehehe.

That's in addition to the methane being released too. What the heck is frozen in the ground up there anyways?

Thousands of years of arrested rotting.

[Furcifer]

Thousands of years of arrested rotting.

Hence the methane, but I was unaware NOS was part of that.

Science is cool kids.

[BenBurch]

Hence the methane, but I was unaware NOS was part of that.

Science is cool kids.

Brief explanation in an abstract; http://sciencelinks.jp/j-east/article/200318/000020031803A0572079.php

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/globalwarming-storms-warming_news189714163.html


(AP) -- The Northeast is seeing more frequent "extreme precipitation events" in line with global warming predictions, a study shows, including storms like the recent fierce rains whose floodwaters swallowed neighborhoods and businesses across New England.

The study does not link last week's devastating floods to its research but examined 60 years' worth of National Weather Service rainfall records in nine Northeastern states and found that storms that produce an inch or more of rain in a day - a threshold the recent storm far surpassed - are coming more frequently.

<SNIP>

The study's results are consistent with what could be expected in a world warmed by greenhouse gases, said UNH associate professor Cameron Wake. He acknowledged it would take more sophisticated studies to cement a warming link, though.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/feedyard-nitrousoxide-greenhousegas_news189704881.html


Texas AgriLife Research scientists in Amarillo are embarking on a new study amid recent concerns over greenhouse gas emissions from crop fertilization, tillage and feed yard operations.

Dr. Ken Casey, AgriLife Research air quality engineer, and Al Caramanica, a research chemist, have added a few new laboratory tools to help measure three greenhouse gases: nitrous oxide, carbon dioxide and methane.

<SNIP>

Nitrous oxide has approximately 310 times the global warming potential of carbon dioxide, he said. It is produced as a part of the nitrogen cycle through the microbial processes of nitrification and denitrification, which are responsible for converting organic nitrogen in livestock manure and urine to inorganic forms that are absorbed and used by plants.

<SNIP>

[!Kaggen]

I thought I would place a link here to this thread (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=172523) about the world banks loan approval yesterday to the South African state-owned energy producer to build the worlds biggest coal power station.

[macdoc]

That sucks eh given the amount fo solar steam facilities that could be built...
wish the World Bank had funded more nuclear in SA but are we in a position to deny an emerging nation the same atmospheric sewage space we employed ourselves in the first world?? :(

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/sealevels-sea-rise_news190387986.html


New research from several international research groups, including the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen provides independent consensus that IPCC predictions of less than a half a meter rise in sea levels is around 3 times too low. The new estimates show that the sea will rise approximately 1 meter in the next 100 years in agreement with other recent studies. The results have been published in the scientific journal, Geophysical Research Letters.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/human-history-planet_news190465818.html


In just two centuries, humans have wrought such vast and unprecedented changes to our world that we actually might be ushering in a new geological time period that could alter the planet for millions of years, according to a group of prominent scientists that includes a Nobel Laureate. They say the dawning of this new epoch could lead to the sixth largest mass extinction in the Earth's history. Their commentary appears in ACS' bi-weekly journal Environmental Science & Technology.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/northernhemisphere-degrees-average_news190402057.html

Spain has warmed at a faster rate than the rest of the northern hemisphere over the past three decades, according to a study prepared for the environment ministry that was published Tuesday.

The country has experienced average temperature increases of 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade since 1975, a rate that is "50 percent superior to the average of nations in the northern hemisphere", the study by the Spanish branch of the Clivar research network found.

The study predicts average temperatures in Spain will be 6.0 degrees Celsius higher in summer and between 2.0 and 3.0 degrees Celsius higher in winter by the end of the 21st century while rainfall will drop.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/icecap-ice-arctic_news190291022.html

Close to 50 years of data show the Devon Island ice cap, one of the largest ice masses in the Canadian High Arctic, is thinning and shrinking.

A paper published in the March edition of Arctic, the journal of the University of Calgary's Arctic Institute of North America, reports that between 1961 and 1985, the ice cap grew in some years and shrank in others, resulting in an overall loss of mass. But that changed 1985 when scientists began to see a steady decline in ice volume and area each year.

"We've been seeing more mass loss since 1985," says Sarah Boon, lead author on the paper and a Geography Professor at the University of Lethbridge. The reason for the change? Warmer summers.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://pda.physorg.com/glaciers--_news190029017.html

Almost 90 percent of Austrian glaciers shrank in 2009, some by as much as 46 metres (150 feet), the Austrian Alpine Association (OeAV) said Friday.

In a report, the OeAV said 85 out of 96 glaciers had shrunk over the past year.

The biggest changes were seen in the Oetz valley in western Tyrol province, where three glaciers retreated by over 40 metres, and eight by over 20 metres.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news189845962.html


(PhysOrg.com) -- The field of climate science is nothing if not complex, where a host of variables interact with each other in intricate ways to produce various changes. Just like any other area of science, climate science is far from being fully understood. As an example, a new study has discredited a previous hypothesis suggesting the existence of a link between solar flares and changes in the earth’s global temperature. The new study points out a few errors in the previous analysis, and concludes that the solar and climate records have very different properties that do not support the hypothesis of a sun-climate complexity linking.

<SNIP>

[BenBurch]

http://www.physorg.com/news188288743.html


Canada jumps into spring after having recorded the mildest and driest winter on record, Environment Canada reported Friday.

The agency, which has compiled data from 1948, determined the average temperature throughout the country was four degrees Celsius (seven degrees Fahrenheit) above normal, said meteorologist Andre Cantin.

Cantin said the country also saw 20 percent less precipitation than normal, also a record.
<SNIP>

[Poptech]

Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues (http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.1554) (PDF (http://arxiv.org/pdf/1003.1554))
(La Chimica e l'Industria, Volume 1, pp. 70-75, 2010)
- Nicola Scafetta, Ph.D. Climate Research Scientist, Duke University

This article discusses the limits of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory advocated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A phenomenological theory of climate change based on the physical properties of the data themselves is proposed. At least 60% of the warming of the Earth observed since 1970 appears to be induced by natural cycles which are present in the solar system. A climatic stabilization or cooling until 2030-2040 is forecast by the phenomenological model.

Anyone who thinks GHG theory is "robust" needs to look at page 7,
The GHG warming theory is based on two independent chained theories. The first theory focuses on the warming effect of a given GHG such as CO2 as it can be experimentally tested. This first theory predicts that a CO2 doubling causes a global warming of about 1 degree C. The second theory, the climate positive feedback theory, attempts to calculate the overall climatic effect of a CO2 increase by assuming an enhanced warming effect due to secondary triggering of other climatic components. For example, it is supposed that an increase of CO2 causes an increase in water vapor concentration. Because H2O too is a GHG, the overall warming induced by an increase of CO2 would be due to the direct CO2 warming plus the indirect warming induced by the water vapor feedback responding to the CO2 increase. The problem with the climate positive feedback theory is that it cannot be directly tested in a lab experiment.
Hysteria averted!

Note: This is a peer-reviewed paper not discussed in any other thread here.

[little grey rabbit]

Hysteria averted!

Oh I hope not. Climate change believers are so cute when they are having kittens over tiny fluctuations in temperatures. And consider how harmless they are when all they are concerned about is this non-issue.

I shudder to think what harm could be done if all this combined neurotic energy was ever funneled towards some real political goal.

AGW keeps them out of mischief.

[Poptech]

I shudder to think what harm could be done if all this combined neurotic energy was ever funneled towards some real political goal.
Who is to say it is not one in the same?

[uk_dave]

So you both agree that warming is occurring?

[Poptech]

So you both agree that warming is occurring?
Yes there has been a relatively meaningless amount of warming since the end of the little ice age and no statistically significant warming in the last 15 years.

[a_unique_person]

Anyone who thinks GHG theory is "robust" needs to look at page 7,

Hysteria averted!

:confused: There is a lot of science that isn't done in the lab.

[BenBurch]

:confused: There is a lot of science that isn't done in the lab.

This OP is yet another Denialist lie - belongs in that other thread, and I have asked for it to be moved there.

[little grey rabbit]

So you both agree that warming is occurring?

I don't really care to be honest, as I said a number of times. I am only interested in the dynamics of the debate as an example of a Foucaultian power-knowledge continuum, not the content of the debate. I have to have a very superficial understanding of the content in order to fully understand it as a dialectical ecosystem.

Consider a yo-yo. Does one really care whether the yo-yo is in an up motion or down motion, once one understands it is a yo-yo?

[Poptech]

ClimateGate Whitewash (http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/04/climategate_whitewash.html) (S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus of Environmental Science, University of Virginia, First Director, National Weather Satellite Center, Former Deputy Assistant Administrator, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency)

There is now a desperate effort afoot by assorted climate alarmists to explain away the revelations of the incriminating e-mails leaked last year from the University of East Anglia (UEA). A concerted whitewash campaign is in full swing to save the IPCC and its questionable conclusion that the warming of the last thirty years is anthropogenic. But ongoing investigations so far have avoided the real issue, namely whether the reported warming is genuine or a manufactured result by scientists in England and the United States who manipulated temperature data. [...]

The UEA's "internal" investigation has largely absolved Dr. Philip Jones, the head of its Climate Research Unit (CRU) and author of most of the e-mails, of any misdeeds. (The UEA has also commissioned an "independent" investigation by Sir Robert Muir-Russell, due in August.) Pennsylvania State University (PSU) has merely slapped the wrists of Dr. Michael Mann for various ethical offenses but sees nothing wrong with the science. The United Nations, at the urging of the Royal Society and U.S. National Academy of Sciences, has launched a supposedly independent investigation of IPCC procedures to be conducted by the InterAcademyCouncil (IAC), a creature of the science academies. It is likely to backfire and lower further the public's opinion of the academies -- and indeed of science generally.

The latest report, by the British House of Commons' Science and Technology Committee, received testimony from many sources, conducted hearings, and largely absolved Jones. How can we tell that it's a whitewash? Here are some telltale signs:

- It refers to the e-mails as "stolen."

- It did not take direct testimony from scientifically competent skeptics,

- Yet it concludes that there is nothing wrong with the basic science and that warming is human-caused -- essentially endorsing the IPCC.

These investigations have focused mainly on procedural issues and scientific ethics, including the withholding of data, preventing skeptical scientists from publishing their results, pressuring editors of scientific journals (often with their ready connivance), and generally misusing the peer review process. None of the investigations have gone into any detail on how the data might have been manipulated -- nor were any of the panels competent enough to do so. But this is really the most important task for any inquiry, since it deals directly with the central issue: Is there an appreciable human influence on climate change in the past decades?

Instead, much of the attention of newspapers, and of the public, has focused on secondary issues involving climate impacts, not causes: the melting of Himalayan glaciers, the possible inundation of the Netherlands, deforestation of the Amazon, crop failures in Africa, etc. While these issues are important and demonstrate the sloppiness of the IPCC process, they cannot decide the cause of warming: natural or anthropogenic.

So what do the e-mails really reveal? We know that Jones and his gang largely succeeded in "hiding the decline" of temperature by using what he termed "Mike [Mann]'s trick." Most assume that this refers to CRU tree-ring data after 1960, which do show a decline in temperature. However, I believe that it refers to Michael Mann's "trick" in hiding the fact that his multi-proxy data did not show the expected warming after 1979. So he abruptly cut off his analysis in 1979 and simply inserted the thermometer data supplied by Jones, which do claim a strong temperature increase. Hence the "hockey-stick" graph in his Nature (1998) paper suggesting a sudden major warming period since the late '70s.

Only a thorough investigation will be able to document that there was really no strong warming after 1979, that the instrumented record is based on data manipulation involving the selection of certain weather stations (and the omission of others that showed no warming), plus applying insufficient corrections for local heating...
:jaw-dropp

[BenBurch]

I don't really care to be honest, as I said a number of times. I am only interested in the dynamics of the debate as an example of a Foucaultian power-knowledge continuum, not the content of the debate. I have to have a very superficial understanding of the content in order to fully understand it as a dialectical ecosystem.

Consider a yo-yo. Does one really care whether the yo-yo is in an up motion or down motion, once one understands it is a yo-yo?

Don't care to be honest? Not even worth listening to, then. On Ignore for you.

[Poptech]

This OP is yet another Denialist lie - belongs in that other thread, and I have asked for it to be moved there.
AKA Ben moves quickly to moderate and censor all information he cannot control, incase someone actually reads it and comes to a conclusion he does not approve.

[uk_dave]

Seems like a bit of a palaver to explain away a meaningless and insignificant amount of warming. lol

[Silly Green Monkey]

Not stolen? You have some other word for 'hacked into a system and illegally downloaded files'?

[little grey rabbit]

Don't care to be honest? Not even worth listening to, then. On Ignore for you.

Gatekeepers can't put people on ignore, I am sorry. At least that is the current orthodoxy in the field of Foucaultian power-knowledge continuums (FP-KC systemics to be short).

Otherwise what sort of a gatekeeper are you?

[uk_dave]

This....



- It did not take direct testimony from scientifically competent skeptics,

- Yet it concludes that there is nothing wrong with the basic science and that warming is human-caused -- essentially endorsing the IPCC.


...contradicts this...

These investigations have focused mainly on procedural issues and scientific ethics, including the withholding of data, preventing skeptical scientists from publishing their results, pressuring editors of scientific journals (often with their ready connivance), and generally misusing the peer review process. None of the investigations have gone into any detail on how the data might have been manipulated -- nor were any of the panels competent enough to do so. But this is really the most important task for any inquiry, since it deals directly with the central issue: Is there an appreciable human influence on climate change in the past decades?

Does the writer even understand his own argument?

[Poptech]

Gatekeepers can't put people on ignore, I am sorry.
He does that when he cannot rationally debate anyone. After that wears off he will resort to just ad hominem attacks repetitively, give him time he has to get this post moderated immediately. Someone may read the paper I posted!

[BenBurch]

Of course a crime you would have done yourself had you been smart enough is not a crime!

[Shadou]

need to separate the skeptics from the others, right BenBurch. need to round'em all up in to camps... for internment.

[BenBurch]

need to separate the skeptics from the others, right BenBurch. need to round'em all up in to camps... for internment.

No, to the slaughterhouse for meat.

ETA: What a stupid comment you made just then. I will not tolerate somebody who says that it does not matter if he is honest or not. That's not debate, that is trolling.

[Poptech]

need to separate the skeptics from the others, right BenBurch. need to round'em all up in to camps... for internment.
Don't give him any ideas! ;)

[Poptech]

The only ones capable of committing crimes it seems is the fraud artists Dr. Jones and Mr. Mann.

[Shadou]

Don't give him any ideas! ;)

well that is the impression that i have gotten from everything BenBurch says from my time reading his posts through the months.

if your not behind him then you are an enemy. i didn't know that this was a war?

[a_unique_person]

Gatekeepers can't put people on ignore, I am sorry. At least that is the current orthodoxy in the field of Foucaultian power-knowledge continuums (FP-KC systemics to be short).

Otherwise what sort of a gatekeeper are you?

:eye-poppi About the only place I see the word "gatekeeper" here is in the conspiracy forums. No, he's just ignoring you because there is no use talking to you.

[Poptech]

About the only place I see the word "gatekeeper" here is in the conspiracy forums.
...and under his name.

Man that has to hurt! :covereyes

[little grey rabbit]

:eye-poppi About the only place I see the word "gatekeeper" here is in the conspiracy forums. No, he's just ignoring you because there is no use talking to you.

Really? Now I see the word "gatekeeper" scattered through all the AGW threads, mostly in connection with long screeds about networking protocols long consigned to the garbage

[MattusMaximus]

Climate Change and Its Causes, A Discussion About Some Key Issues (http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.1554) (PDF (http://arxiv.org/pdf/1003.1554))
(La Chimica e l'Industria, Volume 1, pp. 70-75, 2010)
- Nicola Scafetta, Ph.D. Climate Research Scientist, Duke University

Anyone who thinks GHG theory is "robust" needs to look at page 7,

Hysteria averted!

Note: This is a peer-reviewed paper not discussed in any other thread here.

So, because all research on the Sun (astronomy, you know) cannot be conducted in lab experiments, that makes all solar research invalid as well. Thus, the Sun can have no contribution at all to Earth's climate. For that matter, all astronomy (not just solar) is bogus.

Wow, this "making-it-up-as-you-go-along" science PopTech-style sure is fun. Anyone can play! :)

[MattusMaximus]

Btw folks, all this back-and-forth about conspiracies & politics should really be in another subforum. Just sayin'...

[Farsight]

Grim isn't it? What really bothers me is that if the criticism doesn't come from science, it's science that's in line for the brickbats. It brings science into disrepute, and that's bad for science. Check this out for an example:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/geraldwarner/100034453/climategate-cru-whiter-than-er-whitewash-as-world-laughs-at-agw-scam-apologists/

[MattusMaximus]

The only ones capable of committing crimes it seems is the fraud artists Dr. Jones and Mr. Mann.

Interesting use of language now that two (count 'em, two) independent investigations have found no evidence of either crime or fraud in these cases.

I wonder what the third independent investigation will show?

And I wonder if PopTech and the science-deniers will continue to spin all results which don't go their way as yet more evidence of The Conspiracy?

:popcorn1

[uk_dave]

And I wonder if PopTech and the science-deniers will continue to spin all results which don't go their way as yet more evidence of The Conspiracy?

:popcorn1

You have to wonder? Of course they will, they're 'truthers'!

[MattusMaximus]

You have to wonder? Of course they will, they're 'truthers'!

Sorry, I forgot the winking smiley indicative of sarcasm :)

[lomiller]

So the “tobacco doesn’t cause cancer” lobbyist turned wannabe climate scientists doesn’t like what the inquiries have to say? Oh noes!.

[Myriad]

- It refers to the e-mails as "stolen."


Naturally, the opponents of carbon amelioration measures don't think it's stealing, when the theft is for a good cause.

That's why they will not object at all when a larger portion of the market value of their fossil fuel assets is taxed away to fund amelioration measures, by the lawfully constituted government, for the good of the (global) public.

Glad we cleared that hurdle out of the way!

Respectfully,
Myriad

[Mikemcc]

Isn't "scientifically competent skeptics" an oxymoron?

[macdoc]

Now we WILL see some cooling....

Ash from volcano in Iceland disrupts European air travel

A picture taken on April 15, 2010 and released by Meteosat shows a dark cloud of volcanic ash spreading over Iceland. A volcanic eruption in Iceland fired ash across northern Europe forcing the closure of huge swathes of international airspace on Thursday which grounded hundreds of flights.

All flights in U.K. suspended or cancelled for first time in living memory

continues

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/europe/ash-from-volcano-in-iceland-disrupts-european-air-travel/article1535053/

[BenBurch]

Now we WILL see some cooling....



continues

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/europe/ash-from-volcano-in-iceland-disrupts-european-air-travel/article1535053/

Yep, cool summer coming.

[Tricky]

I've merged some similar threads here. Please do not flood the forum with new threads when there are threads already discussing the issue.