Ukraine flu outbreak similar to 1918 spanish flu (link)

[Emperor_Gestahl]

350+ dead in Ukraine from a flu strain that shows similarities with the 1918 spanish flu, including apparent cytokine storms in the lungs.

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11210901/D225G_Evidence.html

Supposedly normal flu measures are no good against cytokine storms, and cigarettes strangely help if you're having one? Well anyway I don't know a lot yet and it seems kinda under-reported, only time will tell if this could be bad. Keep an eye out for reports of lung bleeding.

[Emperor_Gestahl]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11180904/Ukraine_344.html
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11090903/Ukraine_Lungs.html

Sorry, these links are where the cytokine thing is discussed, for some reason I can't edit my post, keep getting timed out.

[Emperor_Gestahl]

sorry for triple post but like I say edits don't seem to be working for me right now. Recombinomics is the only reputable source I can find with even remotely extensive information. There's stuff like this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=acB0Piy3IMds

But that is so unspecific I think I actually know less after reading it!

If anyone wants to sift through the CT hell that has erupted on the nets lately in response to this development please do and report anything you find that's solid.

(Edit: Oh cool edits work again)

[Emperor_Gestahl]

This one's brand new since my last posting. I'm out for now but someone knowledgeable please visit!

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11240901/Spontaneous_MM.html

[INRM]

-How many people were infected versus how many died?

-What can be done to deal with the cytokine storms?

-Is that the reason younger people died during the 1918 flu, because their immune systems overreacted?

-Also to lay a rumor to rest did any of these people get a vaccination for the Swine-flu?

[Emperor_Gestahl]

Laying rumors to rest is going to be as hard as laying people to rest in a zombie film right now, Ukraine seems to be the new conspiracy of the moment..

I think cytokine storms are believed to be the reason in 1918 behind the deaths of the young and healthy, as far as treatment/prevention of that you'd need to ask Mr. Internet. As I said above nicotine is supposed to help suppress them and I read avoiding tomatos/potatos/dairy/echinacea and anything else that might encourage cytokine or mucous activity.

As for the infection/death numbers it's an ongoing thing and I really don't know.. I'd like to see how the vaccine has effected things but that's like looking for a truth needle in a conspiracy haystack. Was hoping someone in Europe could add some facts for us.

(Edit: I'm seeing 1.6mil sick, 100k hospitalized, 400 deaths so far.. But I can't verify those numbers. If the fatalities stay around there it might not be so bad, but as it kills in a very different way than normal swine flu I think it bears close watching. Also that's a lot of hospitalizations in 3 weeks, status of those 100,000 people would be informative.)

[Dancing David]

Um, when the data is gathered, then there will be a better picture, and when the Recombinomics site has better data I would be a little more comfortable with its material. there seems to be an agenda.

the WHO report is your rather usual cautious WHO release and the recombinomics is not anywhere near as careful. Maybe I need to reread it.

This is the WHO report cited in the last recombinomics link.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/briefing_20091120/en/
It is rather cautious.

And I just reread that recombinomics (http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11240901/Spontaneous_MM.html) page, it borders on a rant in places, it could be correct but that gentleman appears to have an axe to grind. I doubt that they are being ignored, if their hypotesis proves to be correct in the analysis, then I am sure they will be lauded.

[Skeptic Ginger]

The researcher who runs Recombinomics, Dr Niman (http://www.recombinomics.com/founder.html), is legit, but he also has an interesting 'reputation'. I'll leave it at that for now. I wouldn't get that bunker refurbished just yet. The WHO and CDC have been tracking the 2009 H1N1 viral drifting and we'll see more than just Henry's alerts should significant mutations start spreading in any locale.

[Emperor_Gestahl]

Recombinomics has frequently been frustrated with the WHO over the manner and sluggishness of their sequence releases. I followed them during the bird flu scare and their tone was the same regarding WHO practices.

And yes we'd see the WHO issue alerts on this if it decided to go back on it's "lots of copy errors" stance, if not though alternate opinions should be watched in case the WHO is wrong. That said it's hard to do much research when the net is exploding with CTs talking about planes "dusting" before the plague struck and forced vaccinations/martial law in Ukraine etc.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Recombinomics has frequently been frustrated with the WHO over the manner and sluggishness of their sequence releases. I followed them during the bird flu scare and their tone was the same regarding WHO practices.

And yes we'd see the WHO issue alerts on this if it decided to go back on it's "lots of copy errors" stance, if not though alternate opinions should be watched in case the WHO is wrong. That said it's hard to do much research when the net is exploding with CTs talking about planes "dusting" before the plague struck and forced vaccinations/martial law in Ukraine etc.Recombinomics is one man, Dr Henry Niman. It is not a "they". He is an intelligent well qualified geneticist, but he is not without a very unique point of view. Take him with a grain of salt.

Do you have any evidence Niman has been right in his predictions that Bird Flu (HPAI H5N1) is about to become a human flu strain? I love reading the stuff but he has been predicting the H5N1 is close to becoming a human strain for several years. While I don't dismiss that possibility, Niman's warnings of an imminent threat have not been correct.

[Emperor_Gestahl]

Well he's listed as the founder, though I don't see the entries signed by him personally.. I'll take your word for it.

I'm not an avid follower so I don't know his ideas on Bird Flu of late, but predicting the future and interpreting the present are different things. I'd take this "Black Lung Plague" situation more seriously since it's something that's actually happening and being investigated by Dr. Niman rather than speculated upon.

[Emperor_Gestahl]

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11270905/WHO_Mis.html

No experts on this board who can confirm or tear apart Dr. Niman's increasingly-serious concerns?

[Emperor_Gestahl]

"WHO Confirms D225G Vaccine Failure":

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/11280901/WHO_D225G_Vac.html

[Skeptic Ginger]

Well he's listed as the founder, though I don't see the entries signed by him personally.. I'll take your word for it.

I'm not an avid follower so I don't know his ideas on Bird Flu of late, but predicting the future and interpreting the present are different things. I'd take this "Black Lung Plague" situation more seriously since it's something that's actually happening and being investigated by Dr. Niman rather than speculated upon.I've been following Dr Niman for years and have made inquiries as to why his work is not noted on other reputable sites. Those inquiries have been answered, but with a request for confidentiality which I am respecting by not mentioning the sites or the respondents.

Dr Niman is a legit scientist but he is not completely respected for all of his views. You might try looking to see if any of his views are repeated or echoed by any other researchers. That's a skeptical place to start.

And you might also look at some of his earlier warnings about the genetic changes signifying the HPAI H5N1 is a hair trigger away from becoming a human to human transmitted virus. While that may indeed still occur and I don't mean to downplay the fact H5N1 continues to smolder, if you bought all of Niman's predictions, that pandemic would have arrived a couple years ago. ... It has not.

[dropzone]

No experts on this board who can confirm or tear apart Dr. Niman's increasingly-serious concerns?Bro, not an expert, just a historian, and my default reaction is

PANIC!

but I'm really not seeing it yet. I will keep a close eye.

[Emperor_Gestahl]

I don't mean to downplay the fact H5N1 continues to smolder, if you bought all of Niman's predictions, that pandemic would have arrived a couple years ago. ... It has not.

Thanks for the info, happy to have at least found someone that knows about Recombinomics, but I reiterate that this new situation is not a prediction by Dr. Niman. He appears to assert that H1N1 has already mutated into a lung-destroying form similar to the 1918 pandemic, and that so mutated the virus appears to thwart the vaccine. The WHO seems to agree about the vaccine failure though Niman believes they may be underestimating the number of cases as D225G is found only in samples from the lower respiratory area which are not taken/tested most of the time.

There really hasn't been time for the rest of the scientific community to echo him or not on this, because it's a new and ongoing development. Why he's disagreed with about a different virus in a different context will be a good read for me at a later time, but for now the D225G situation is what I hope to find input on.

[Tatyana]

Has anyone heard anything about this?

There isn't that much legitimate mainstream press on the situation in the Ukraine.

From the WHO website:

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009, Ukraine - update 1

3 November 2009 -- According to the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the country has now recorded more than 250 000 cases of influenza-like illness, with 235 patients requiring intensive care. As of 2 November, 70 deaths from acute respiratory illness have been reported.

Regions in western Ukraine continue to show the highest rates of acute respiratory illness/influenza-like illness. The level of activity in the Kyiv area is also increasing rapidly.

Laboratory testing in Ukraine has confirmed pandemic H1N1 influenza virus in samples taken from patients in two of the most affected regions. As the pandemic virus has rapidly become the dominant influenza strain worldwide, it can be assumed that most cases of influenza in Ukraine are caused by the H1N1 virus.

As elsewhere, WHO strongly recommends early treatment with the antiviral drugs, oseltamivir or zanamivir, for patients who meet treatment criteria, even in the absence of a positive laboratory test confirming H1N1 infection.



At the request of the government, a multi-disciplinary team of nine experts has been deployed by WHO and arrived in Kyiv yesterday evening. Discussions with the Minister of Health were held this morning to brief the team.

Team members will now begin field investigations to characterize the clinical and epidemiological features of the outbreak. Work will initially begin in Lviv region, where reported numbers of cases showing severe manifestations of acute respiratory illness have been especially high. Two virologists on the team have started working at the National Influenza Centre and the laboratories of the Central Sanitary and Epidemiological Station in Kyiv to provide diagnostic support.

Samples sent by the Ministry of Health were received today by the WHO Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, Mill Hill in London, UK. The laboratory will conduct confirmatory tests and further characterize the virus.

Many questions remain to be answered. The outbreak in Ukraine may be indicative of how the virus can behave in the northern hemisphere during the winter season, particularly in health care settings typically found in Eastern Europe.

Given the potential significance of this outbreak as an early warning signal, WHO commends the government of Ukraine for its transparent reporting and open sharing of samples.

WHO continues to recommend no closing of borders and no restrictions on international travel, including to Ukraine. Experience shows that such measures will not stop further spread of the virus.

[Eos of the Eons]

[/URL]

We went through all this in another thread. Ukraine is politically a mess. Compound that with hardly any economic recovery since becoming independent, and medicine a mess because of that, will ensure more people will die of H1N1 because their interventions come too late.

[URL]http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/ukraines-outbreak-of-ineptitude/article1367149/ (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=159346&highlight=ukraine)

It should surprise few people that the medical emergency has caught the government off guard. The ministries charged with social services and the well-being of Ukrainians (Health and Family, Youth and Sports) have been weakened under successive governments through major budget cuts and sheer neglect

[Skeptic Ginger]

For a tad more insight on Dr Niman, read the 3rd comment in this Effect Measure (http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/11/not_unexpected_in_swine_flu_is.php#comments) blog discussion on the H1N1. The comment was written by one of the blog's authors (who all use the pseudonym, Revere).

Alas you are wading into deep and contentious waters. It has been Niman's contention (and the basis of his commercial product) that the driving force in genetic variation in flu is neither point mutation nor reassortment but homologous recombination....

...The problem is that the actual empirical evidence suggests that negative sense RNA viruses don't engage in homologous recombination to any significant extent (for a recent paper again confirming this, see Homologous Recombination Is Very Rare or Absent in Human Influenza A Virus, Maciej F. Boni, Yang Zhou, Jeffery K. Taubenberger, and Edward C. Holmes, open access here (http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/full/82/10/4807?view=long&pmid=18353939-plane.com/); note that these are among the most experienced and prominent flu scientists in the world, although that doesn't automatically make them right of course). Your earlier comment about the non-constructive aspect of "board wars" is related to Niman's small but ferocious contingent of followers (virtually none of whom are capable of understanding the science but at least one, a lawyer, has invested in his company). They believe on the basis of his contrarianism and oracular (and usually scientifically incomprehensible) style he must be a Great Man.

[Skeptic Ginger]

From The Virology Blog, 11-24: The D225G change in 2009 H1N1 influenza virus is not a concern (http://www.virology.ws/2009/11/24/the-d225g-change-in-2009-h1n1-influenza-virus-is-not-a-concern/)An important consideration is that the D225G amino acid change has a negative impact on transmission. The change from D to G at amino acid 225 of the 1918 HA significantly impairs transmission among ferrets. When both D225G and D190E are present, transmission is abolished. These changes do not impair viral replication or virulence in the respiratory tract of inoculated animals.

Transmissibility is clearly a positive selection factor for viral evolution. There may be selection for increased virulence only if there is no negative impact on viral transmission. Given these considerations, the choice between an H1 HA amino acid at position 225 that allows efficient transmission (D225) or one that impairs transmission and might or might not allow multiplication deeper in the lung (D225G) seems obvious.This of course is not definitive but it is at least encouraging.

A worthwhile forum discussion on Flu Trackers about this blog entry can be found here. (http://www.flutrackers.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134015&page=3)

[Skeptic Ginger]

Effect Measure Blog; 11-21-09:

Trying to understand the Norwegian swine flu mutations [with Addendum] (http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/11/trying_to_understand_the_norwe.php)According to WHO, the mutation has been seen before, again sporadically and as early as April, in Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, Ukraine, and the US. Should we be worried about it?

For me that's not exactly the right question because I worry about everything when it comes to influenza. Just like auto accidents, flu infections come in a huge range of severity from barely visible scratches to fender benders to whip lash to multiple disabling injury to death. I don't take the potential of being hit by a car lightly either. Any instance could kill me or someone I love. The right question is whether I am especially worried about this report. Not yet. The addendum has multiple links for anyone wanting a better technical understanding of these matters.

[Dancing David]

Thanks for all the links.

I think that the issue is that while there are possibilities it is on Niman to make his case. :)

[Emperor_Gestahl]

Well I hope he's wrong, he's now saying that a vaccine mismatch would cause the more fatal form to be selected for as the less fatal form is hindered by the vaccine and the D225G form is not. Thanks for the links everyone, looks like I'll just have to keep watching this in case.

[INRM]

Looking at those numbers less than 1 in 3,500 died...

[Emperor_Gestahl]

I think the main issue is that the method of death could indicate cytokine storm (and therefore possibly defeating the vaccine), also that the 450+ deaths as of now in Ukraine have happened in about a month.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I think the main issue is that the method of death could indicate cytokine storm (and therefore possibly defeating the vaccine), also that the 450+ deaths as of now in Ukraine have happened in about a month.Sure, all that is possible. The question is, does the evidence support it? For the moment the jury is out but it is looking like the verdict is going to be, nothing to see here, move along.

[Safe-Keeper]

Trying to understand the Norwegian swine flu mutations (http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/11/trying_to_understand_the_norwe.php)Summarized:

We Norsemen couldn't settle with the wuzzy swine flu doing the rounds at the moment, and so had to make our own, even stronger Viking Flu!

ETA: alternatively known as the reindeer flu.

[Skeptic Ginger]

:viking1 :xmas0664